Game #17 Preview Suite
First Screen Viewing
Avalanche vs. Jets – 7pm
Look, it’s two teams in the Central better than the Hawks! Not that the Avalanche are that far ahead of the local side, but they do sport what is currently the most damaging line in hockey, with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Ratanen, and Gabriel LaxativeLog. They certainly make a ton happen. The Jets haven’t fired fully yet, mostly due to Connor Hellebuyck going all “Jets goalie” so far this season. A slightly lower SH% than you’d expect from this band of outlaws hasn’t helped either, but this will correct itself. Should be something of a track meet.
Second Screen Viewing
Sharks vs. Blues – 7pm
There’s only one team propping up the Hawks right now, and thankfully it’s the Blues. Although they could hire Joel Quenneville any minute, because he’s aching to get a hold of this slow and dumb defense, dontcha know? The Sharks should run circles around this detention hall, and that’s always a good time for all. Then again, that could be the final nail in Mike Yeo’s coffin, which probably isn’t what we need. It’s hard being a hockey fan.
Other Games
Devils vs. Leafs – 6pm
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals – 6pm
Rangers vs. Red Wings – 6:30
Wild vs. Ducks – 9pm
I didn’t realize this as I walked in to the building last night. It had been 10 years since I arrived at the United Center seeing what a new coach had in store for the Hawks. In that time, I’ve done that at Wrigley five times. If you’re the other baseball color, you’ve done that three times in that amount of time (seriously, how was Robin Ventura manager that long?). The Bears have cycled through four coaches. Strangely, the Bulls have only gone through three. It still sounds so strange to say that in that span, the Hawks were by far the most stable Chicago sports team.
So in that sense, I knew what the reaction of the UC crowd would be. There wasn’t any vitriol toward Jeremy Colliton himself, because let’s be honest, most everyone doesn’t have any idea who he is. For most Hawks fans, they’re probably only barely aware that they have a minor league team, that it’s in Rockford, and that Colliton coached it. And that might be even giving them the best of it. And that’s fine. Could most Cubs and Sox fans name their Triple-A manager in Iowa or Charlotte right now (sit down, Fifth Feather!)?
I’ve thought about this a lot the past few days. It seems in these kinds of fights, fans are almost always going to side with the coach. Because the coach is the one they see every game. He’s in front of the press every day, after practice, after games, all of it. He’s the one you get a connection to. The only example I can honestly think of that goes against that is the current Cubs, and that took Theo Epstein getting here first, having the resume he does before he even took the job, and Joe Maddon’s fascination with his own voice rubbing pretty much everyone the wrong way. How many people in this town still worship Ditka? And he was unquestionably an idiot who cost the Bears championships!
And when the Hawks were rolling, even in the middle of a season, you didn’t walk out of the arena saying to yourself, “Man, Stan Bowman really has this team humming!” You walked out marveling at how well-oiled Joel Quenneville had the machine. Because he was the one running it. He was the one actually driving the car, even if he didn’t build it. Or all of it, as we know how things worked on Madison St.
And that’s what forms the stronger, emotional bond for fans. Whether you know it or not, you see the coach’s work pretty much on a daily basis. You only really see the GM set up the board. He doesn’t move the pieces. Fans were always going to be attached to Quenneville, and to whatever extent that might have skewed or blinded them to what’s going on on the ice, that’s what the Hawks now have to navigate through.
And even if we here or just me are some of the leading voices in the Q-had-to-go camp (if not more than a little surprised at how early it came), I didn’t skip into the building last night. While I was curious and excited to see how this team will respond to Colliton (and they were faster and more creative), the overwhelming emotion was sadness. That a big part of it is all over. Not just the window or the era or however else you define it. There was a feeling, one we haven’t had much as Hawks fans over the past two or three decades, that’s now officially part of history.
Because there was a six- or seven-year stretch, maybe even eight, where the Hawks were basically the control of the group. They were stable, and in that stability were a force. You knew exactly what you were getting. Sure, there were a lot of bumps in the road and drama here and there, but for the most part the Hawks didn’t only win games, they won them methodically and coldly. Winning was just this thing they did. And the joy you got from it or the buzz came not from the wins, or not just the wins, but how ingrained or efficient or systematic those wins came. The machine just kept moving on. The assuredness that the Hawks would be good, it was now the natural state of things, you drew strength from that as a fan.
Q also rode in as something of a savior. Not in the traditional sense. But when he arrived, you knew the Hawks had an abundance of talent and were capable of something special, it was just so loose then in 2008. It was barely roped together. It was winning games back then on the sheer force of its talent, not by any system. And Quenneville banded it together into one being and momentum almost instantly, so assuredly. It was calming. It was only 19 games into his tenure here that the Hawks ripped off nine in a row, outscoring their opponents in that streak 41-12. It was barely six weeks in charge, and he already had that team capable of that kind of punch.
And whatever I might have said or thought about it at the time or now, Q was at the helm of that. Maybe he wasn’t the biggest reason, but he was doing the steering. However he got there, Q put the settings in place that kept it moving smoothly and dominantly. It felt like a lot of teams lost the game before they even hit the UC ice. Sure, maybe the suspense was gone some nights, but in the best possible way. The Hawks were going to show up, do their thing, and most teams were just about powerless to stop it. They could try everything. The Hawks did what they did and barely noticed anyone else was there. It was impersonal as it was authoritative.
And that’s gone now. Perhaps Colliton gets there one day, and we’ll get that feeling again. And maybe the journey there is just as fun as it was last time. Maybe it’s longer. Maybe it never gets there.
But that sure-feeling is gone. It has been for a while. It’s just official now. And I can understand the lashing out from those who miss it. Part of me wants to, too.
First Screen Viewing
Sharks vs. Stars – 7:30
If the Stars had anyone other than their top line that could score once a week, they’d probably be making noise about crowding into the Jets and Predators booth at the top of the Central. They have one of the better goals-against marks in the league, and yet can’t find anyone else to support Seguin, Radulov, and Benn. They’re also ahead of the Hawks, and if they have any fantasies about getting back into the playoff picture the Stars are probably a team they’re going to have to overhaul. The Sharks are the Sharks, and while they’re on top of the Pacific, and probably to stay, their results haven’t quite matched up to the metrics that suggest they’re utterly destroying everyone on a nightly basis.
Second Screen Viewing
Islanders vs. Lightning – 6:30
Wait, the Islanders don’t suck to high heaven? Well no, they do. They don’t score, they give up a ton of shots, but Thomas Greiss and Robin Lehner are stopping everything they see and some things they don’t, so the results are there. It won’t last at this rate, but whatever keeps Nosferatu Lamiorello in a job for comedy’s sake is all right by me. The Lightning are great. That’s all.
Other Games
Canucks vs. Bruins – 6pm
Oilers vs. Panthers – 6pm
Coyotes vs. Flyers – 6pm
Sabres vs. Canadiens – 6:30
Knights vs. Senators – 6:30
Wild vs. Kings – 9:30
vs. 
RECORDS: Hurricanes 6-7-2 Hawks 6-6-3
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
HE HIT THE FUCKIN’ BULL, DIDN’T HE?: Canes Country, Section 328
However you feel about Joel Quenneville‘s firing, tonight marks the most interest-laden regular season game in quite some time around these parts. Anyone with the slightest inkling of Hawks give-a-shit is going to want to tune in and see whatever changes might be visible (also, Eddie O’s pregame take should be must-see viewing, as well as the verbal wheel-poses and one-legged crows he and Foley will perform trying to air their grievances without directly indicting their bosses. I’m almost sorry I’ll be in the building. Almost).
As far as things you can identify on the ice tonight, they might be scarce. Jeremy Colliton himself has said there isn’t really time for a systematic overhaul, and that there will only be tweaks to start with. As we said yesterday, the big things to watch for, if any, are how the Hawks try to break out of the zone. Whether they’re still trying to make two or three passes to do so or if they just go with a GTFO-method. The other will be how they defend, as we’ve seen them try to be more pressure-based with very mixed results, to be kind. Colliton has made noise about being just as aggressive but doing so farther up the ice. We’ll see if that materializes and what they do in their own end. Right now we’re just asking for four guys not to end up on one side of the zone and all puck-watching. Baby steps to the elevator, people.
As far as lineup decisions, Colliton has told John Hayden, Brandon Manning, and SuckBag Johnson to do one tonight, and you certainly can’t fault him on the latter two. The difference between Hayden or Andreas Martinsen is somewhere around negligible, so we’re not going to hold our breath until we turn purple on that one. Sadly, it appears that Nick Schmaltz will remain on a wing tonight, with Artem Anisimov and Patrick Kane, but again…baby steps to the elevator.
You might look at the Carolina Hurricanes’ record and conclude that this is a pretty nice landing for a first-time coach making his debut in front of what will be an at-best skeptical UC crowd. This would be a mistake. While the Canes’ record sucks, and for the usual reason in that they can’t hit a bull in the ass with a snow-shovel when it comes to scoring, their metrics suggest this is a dominant even-strength time. They’re running 60%+ in both Corsi and expected-goals, and lead the league in both. They give up the least amount of attempts per game, and are 4th in xGA/60 as well. If their shooting-percentage were to curve up in any way, this is a team poised to rocket up the standings. But it seems like we say that every year and the Canes still end up just south of a tropical depression.
One thing that might keep that from happening is the Canes just don’t have a premier scorer on the roster. Sebastien Aho might claim to be one on more days than not, and Andrei Svhechnikov was drafted to be that but is 18. And that’s about it. This team is never going to shoot the lights out, which might betray their possession-dominance. This is why they’re the front-runner to relieve the Leafs of their William Nylander conundrum. They desperately need someone of that quality and have the wealth of blue-liners to make that happen.
The other constant virus that brings the Canes down is goaltending, and that’s no different this year. Scott Darling started the year injured and in his two games back has been iffy. Neither Petr “Try Try Try To Understand He’s A” Mrazek Man or Curtis McElhinney, even with the statue of him going up in Toronto at the moment, have grabbed the job with two hands in Darling’s absence. They’ve kept an opponent under three goals just once in the past six, and that was to the Islanders who are similarly bull-ass-and-shovel disabled. And seeing as how they shoot, three goals is about the number they can’t overcome.
So yeah, on the surface this could really look bad if it goes sideways on Colliton tonight. But the Canes are the exact kind of team that Quenneville’s Hawks found to be a nightmare the past two years. They’re fast and play high-pressure, and there’s no give in that speed anywhere in the lineup. Q’s methods were undone by teams like this. It comes too early to find out if Colliton has better answers, but the Hawks won’t get anywhere if they can’t figure it out against teams like this. The good thing is the Canes lack the firepower to consistently punish you for mistakes or simply being on the receiving end of a possession-mauling, nor can they keep you out from the limited chances they surrender. How the Hawks surpass the Canes forecheck will give you an idea of where we’re headed with Colliton at the wheel.
That’s where the Hawks will likely get THE NEW ERA off to the right start tonight. Corey Crawford getting back to the first couple appearances of the year, and their superior scoring talent burying the fewer chances they get at a better rate than the Canes do with the higher amount they’re certain to have.
Whatever you thought the past was, it’s gone now. This is where the Hawks pivot, for better or worse. You can’t say you’re not curious.
Game #16 Preview Suite
In some ways, the Carolina Hurricanes vacant coaching job was an odd one. It seems easy on the surface. They haven’t made the playoffs in 10 years, they hadn’t been close to them in just about as long, and anything that gets close would be seen as an improvement and buy any new coach more time and esteem. It’s hardly a pressure-bearing hockey market, and there’s certainly a few pieces around those parts that you would think any candidate could improve upon.
And yet, under the surface, there didn’t seem to be a lot of places the Canes could go. Under previous coach Bill Peters, metrically the Canes were one of the better teams around for years. They always ran a top-five Corsi-percentage, and generally were ok in expected-goals. While those don’t automatically lead to wins, it’s about the only thing a coach and team can control and are generally good indicators of where your results are going to go.
What undid Peters was never having a goalie that wasn’t turning into surrealist paintings in the crease, and a lack of genuine finishers in their top-six. That didn’t appear like it was going to change this season. Scott Darling was still here, and Petr Mrazek or Curtis McElhinney weren’t exactly causing Homer-esque sagas to be written about them (well actually they are in Toronto about the latter but that’s what they do up there, other than store their own urine in jars and then film videos in front of them). While Andrei Svechnikov projects to be the Canes first, genuine top-line scorer since Eric Staal was young and spritely, it would be a lot to ask of him to be that at 18.
Rod Brind’Amour has found a way.
While it’s only 15 games, somehow “Rod The Bod” has not just improved the Canes’ metrics, he’s vaulted them up and over the mountain. The Canes Corsi-percentage has gone from 54.4% last year to 61.3% this year. Their xGF% has gone from 53.1 to 61.1. These are massive gains for a team that was already on the right side of the ledger. Both lead the league.
What helped to undo Peters was that for all the attempts they generated, he turned all of his d-men into cowboys to the point you could probably here a lot of hootin’ and hollerin’ and spittin’ on the ice, and maybe even a calf or two got loose in the defensive zone. Brind’Amour has been able to quiet that down and give his goalies more of a chance. They give up six attempts per game less than last year, their xGA/60 has gone from 2.29 to 2.11.
He’s also been able to settle down his defense. Getting Dougie Hamilton to play with instead of Noah Hanifin is certainly a nice break. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary has been Justin Faulk. Faulk has been nestled on the second-pairing for a while in Raleigh, and Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin did the mine-sweeping. But under Peters, Faulk had become something of a Tasmanian Devil character, shotgunning everywhere around the ice while not really caring about the vacancies and openings that were developing wherever he wasn’t. This season, Faulk has seen his attempts against down by 10 per game, his goals-against per game cut in half, and his xGA/60 has been cut by 25%. He’s still generating as much at the other end. To be fair, perhaps Calvin de Haan is a more stable partner than a still very young Hanifin, but Brind’Amour has unlocked something here.
However, the Canes are still knee-deep at the bottom of the Metro Division, and that’s because Brind’Amour has run up against one of the same problems. The Canes can’t score. They’re offensively agoraphobic, especially that space between the posts. They have the third-worst SH% in the league at 5.8. That’s way worse than their barely-7% of last year. And you can coach whatever system you want, but there just aren’t any natural-born finishers here. Maybe Aho? He’s playing center now and not in the same finishing positions. Svechnikov will get there one day, but that day isn’t today. And that’s about it.
Still, all Brind’Amour has to hope for is getting back to that 7% number from last year, which isn’t even that good. Given the amount of shots the Canes are generating at evens and the improvement from last year, that low SH% would see them average 2.8 goals at evens per game. For frame of reference, that would ranks 6th in the league, right next to Tampa’s 2.81 per 60 at ES.
Waiting for the percentages to even out has been a favorite pastime in Carolina recently. But now they just need them to rebound to the still-unlucky level they’ve been, and they could shoot up the standings.
Game #16 Preview Suite
Section 328 are the rabid section of the Canes fandom. You can follow them on Twitter @Section328.
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A new coach, seemingly a new system, a new celebration, very shiny metrics and yet still outside the playoff spots at the moment. What’s changed with the Canes from Bill Peters to Rod The Bod?
Everything outside of the results. The team feels looser, more open, and less likely to give up on a game when they get down. This team’s amount of give-a0shit is measurably higher than any BP team.
Andrei Svechnikov has come right into the team from the draft. First impressions?
He looks good, and also looks like a rookie. One shift he’ll win a battle along the boards and get a great scoring chance. Two shifts later he’ll either turn the puck over or get goaded into a penalty by some wily veteran. Still seems like the sky’s the limit for him.
Dougie Hamilton and Michael Ferland were the return for Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm. How have they fit in?
Really, REALLY well. Raleigh has several museums which has helped Dougie feel at home and Ferland has helped round out the top line more than we would have hoped for. Hamilton started the season a little slow, and for some reason he hasn’t gotten much power at time, but the last 5-6 games, he’s made a lot of impressive plays and is starting to let his shot fly. Ferland has brought a physical element, with a good amount of skill, that this team hasn’t had in years.
The Canes were rumored to be shopping Justin Faulk this summer, including to the Hawks. Is he now going to stay or might he be deadline fodder and why wouldn’t the Canes want to keep him?
When the team announced they were keeping a letter on the front of his sweater, much trade talk moved from Faulk to Pesce, another RHD. He seems to have a weight off his shoulders now that he’s not a co-captain (and thankfully the team doesn’t have that crap this year) so we think he’s more likely to stay than go.
Is William Nylander coming to town?
There’s the big question. When the Canes started strong, we saw no reason to make a big move. Now, that’s changed. It’s hard to read Kyle Dubas, and they’ve said they don’t want to trade him, but there’s been a LOT of smoke lately between Raleigh and Toronto. For now, we’re still thinking it doesn’t happen, but we wouldn’t bet too much money on it
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Game #16 Preview Suite
Ok, we’re a little sick of the “Skol” clap. It’s ripped off from Iceland, and anything Vikings fans do obviously is for the truly bewildered and dorky. But hey, it’s a minor crime.
However, the team-wide celebration of wins, whether it’s crashing into the boards or something else, that we’re on board for. Because hockey needs personality in any way it can get it. It’s a game after all. Games are supposed to be fun. And the Canes could use anything that connects them further to their fans. Wins in the NHL aren’t easy to come by. They should be celebrated.
But you know where this is going, especially if the Canes get near the playoffs. One night, after beating a Canadian team you can be sure, some crusty, white-haired jerk-ass on Rogers who hasn’t had a decent shit in four years is going to go off on this as classless, or not the “hockey way.” Because there is no fun in hockey. There is no personality, and if there is it means you don’t care about the team. And the team is all that matters, remember? That’s why no one can read.
We would love to see a league where every team has their own celebration tradition, not just waving their stick at center ice before retreating to the dressing room, except for one guy who gets pulled aside for a “How about these fans?!” interview. Have one team light a stick on fire. Have another do “Thriller.” A fake sword fight. All of it. One team trying to one-up the other. That’s how you get on Sportscenter. That’s how you get people to notice.
Which is why it’ll never happen.
Game #16 Preview Suite
