Sam Fels – Page 131 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

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Game #51 – Islanders vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 22, 2019 1605 0

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Game #51 – Islanders vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 22, 2019 1532 0

Notes: Lehner has given up four goals in his last four appearances…Barzal only has one goal since the last time these two met, when he had a brace…Cizikas has been the Eastern version of Marcus Kruger for years, always on a fourth-line but always tasked with taking the hardest assignments. Trotz hasn’t wavered from that…Their Toews has really juiced the third-pairing, and given them a puck-mover on all three pairings…Filppula has been extremely annoying to the Hawks in his entire career, and now that he’s under Trotz he’s Super Annoying…

Notes: After what was his first truly rough outing, it makes sense to get Delia an early start on the bye and break and give Ward the start. Not that you’re ever happy to see Ward in net, but this one makes sense…they’re giving you the hard-press on Caggiula in the top six, even though he was just fine on Sunday…the Saad-Kampf-Kruger line was used as a straight checking unit against Backstrom and Ovechkin and it held its own even if the possession numbers were a little ugly…curious to see if DeBrincat can be the main creator on a line, which is what he’ll be tasked with joining Strome and Kahun…

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Game #50 – Capitals vs. Hawks Spotlight: Alex The Accurate?

By Sam Fels January 20, 2019 2023 0

Only in this way is it a shame that Russia-US relations are headed to Cold War status soon, because Alex Ovechkin should be considered an imported treasure, if not a national one. But being a close friend of The Shirtless Rider in charge over there probably won’t help his cause in a lot of eyes. Either way, we’ve spent years talking about what a true phenomenon Ovechkin is and has been. He’s leading the league in goals again at 33. and it doesn’t feel like he’s going to stop doing that anytime soon. What’s peculiar about this year is how he’s going about it.

Ovechkin used to score his usual avalanche of goals by sheer volume of shots. Think Matthew Stafford. No player in history averaged the five shots per game that Ovechkin routinely put up. although he hasn’t done that in a couple years. And while he had a decent accuracy on them, the fact that he found a way to get a puck through more than anyone else from anywhere is the reason he was always atop the scoring charts.

That’s not so this year. Ovie is only averaging 3.96 shots per game, his second-lowest since 2012 when Adam Oates tried to turn him into a fucking checking winger. As far as rates go, Ovie is only getting 11.2 shots per 60 minutes total on net, a low since that Oates-era confusion. His 17.7 SH% are a career-high this year, which explains the 33 goals.

It’s even more pronounced at even-strength. Alex The Great is only getting 8.9 shots per 60 at 5-on-5, when he’s comfortably been over 10 per 60 for his entire career. Again, his 17.5 SH% at even-strength is a career-high, and by some distance. The best he had done before was last year’s 12.8%. He’s not really making it up on the power play either, averaging less shots there than he has in seven seasons and with less accuracy. This could be the third-straight season his power play goals tally declines.

Which would lead one to ask if Ovie is just finding better spots to get a higher percentage of shots to the twine, or he’s just getting luckier. It looks like the latter. Ovechkin is nearly doubling his expected individual goals for per 60, which is 0.83 and he’s actually potted 1.58. This is by far the highest difference in the last five years. Now to be clear, Ovechkin is always going to outshoot what the percentages say he “should” score, because his shot is just that heavy. But doubling it up is pushing it. It also doesn’t suggest he’s getting to any different areas or getting chances he didn’t before. His expected-goals rate is below what it was last year, so he might not even be getting the same chances as before, though he’s pretty much in line with the past few years on that.

All of which would lead you to believe that if you wanted to wager that the decline is coming for Ovie next year, it might be smart money. Hell, he’s only got three in his last 14 right now, so it might already be here. Going five percent over your career-high in shooting-percentage is a neat trick at 33, and one that’s hard to maintain. That doesn’t mean Ovie is going to be a detriment or anything close to it. But it might behoove the Caps to start planning on him being a 25-30 goal guy soon, because underneath the fireworks, that’s the way things are trending.

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Game #50 – Capitals vs. Hawks Q&A: Greg Young From Japers Rink

By Sam Fels January 20, 2019 1764 0

Japers Rink has been among the gold-standard in team blogs for over a decade. They lent us Greg this morning.

The Caps for the second straight year are kinda weird. They’re near the top of the Metro, so no problems there, but their metrics say they shouldn’t be. Braden Holtby has been good, but short of great. Is it just as simple as the top line is always going to outshoot the percentages and they get just enough saves to make that count? Or just weird?

We’ve been wondering the same thing! There’s been a bit of debate amongst Caps fans about how good our team is this year, and this is something I speculated a bit about this on our site’s podcast earlier this week. I tend to think that the Caps will outperform their expected goal metrics to some degree (Kevin Klein explained why this keeps happening earlier this year, and having the skill of the Capitals helps generally in this area)…but they were still due for some regression this year, because they were outperforming their metrics by an even more extreme degree. The fact that our power play has come crashing back down to earth and is now ranked 11th in the NHL isn’t helping matters much.

One positive note, as your question referenced, has been the goaltending for the Capitals this year. Braden Holtby has bounced back, and is returning closer to his career norms in Save % (.912 this year) and Goals Against Per Game (2.82 this year.) We’ve also been impressed with backup and human typo Pheonix Copley, who is close to Holtby in Save % and GAA.

Ultimately, I still think the Capitals are safely a playoff team, and we’re ultimately still talking about a team with a number of elite-level players, but things definitely aren’t perfect over here in D.C.

You wouldn’t say Evgeni Kuznetsov is having a bad year, as he’s still close to a point per game. But only eight goals after 27 last year in a more free-scoring environment. Just rotten luck on the shooting-percentage?

I wouldn’t say it’s just rotten shooting percentage luck…though he seems pretty likely to improve from a 1.54% (!!) shooting percentage at 5v5. Anecdotally, Kuznetsov has been making some strange decisions in the neutral zone, is turning the puck over pretty frequently in all zones, and just seems…off. One note is that he did suffer a concussion earlier this year, which he still maybe recovering from, even though he’s in the lineup. We’ve noticed this with Capitals players before, that sometimes it can take a couple of months after a concussion to start getting back in the swing of things.

The Caps find themselves in an interesting spot down the road. Both Backstrom and Holtby will be up for extensions in the summer. Both will be over 30. How careful do the Caps want to be with this or will they hand both significant raises from their current bargain rates of $6 million per year?

Backstrom first: Backstrom’s next contract is going to be a fascinating puzzle for GM Brian MacLellan to solve. Backstrom has consistently managed to hover around a point per game throughout his tenure, a pace he’s continuing this year. His value isn’t just offensive though, he’s continued to draw key defensive assignments, and former head coach Barry Trotz was always vouching for him to get Selke consideration. Yet, at the same time, Backstrom will be 32 when his next contract is discussed, which is a dangerous age to be giving away massive free agent contracts. Personally, I think they’ll have to get a deal done (maybe around 6-7 million a year?), and his legendary passing ability may help stave off a drastic decline in his late 30’s.

Holtby, to me, is a bit clearer of a case. The Capitals top prospect is goaltender Ilya Samsonov, and a lot of people envisioned him taking over the starting job once Holtby’s contract expires. Unfortunately, Samsonov has struggled a bit in Hershey, which has perhaps slowed the calls for him to immediately take over from Holtby. Here, I think the Capitals have the benefit of waiting. If Holtby plays consistently well this and next year and Samsonov continues struggling, they can absolutely work out an extension. However, if Samsonov looks ready and Holtby starts a bit of a decline, it could be time for a transition in net.

What might the Caps do around the deadline and what are you expecting from them in the spring?

I’m actually working on a piece now about this, so stay tuned for more details! Generally, at the deadline, I’d expect them to get a depth forward and maybe another depth defenseman. The problem is that the Caps have basically no cap space (around 400k, according to Capfriendly), which limits any deals.

The expectation here is that the high talented but inconsistent Andre Burakovsky seems likely to be traded which could free up around $3 million in cap space. He’s fallen out of favor with the Capitals brass and has been healthy scratched a few times this year, so he could use a change of scenery. There could be a fit by trading Burakovsky either for another player who could use a change of scenery, or maybe to a talent-starved team in exchange for a forward on an expiring deal.

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Game #50 – Capitals vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Are We Finally Free Of T.J. Sochi?

By Sam Fels January 20, 2019 1704 0

We can only hope.

It was five years ago, so you would think the memory should be pretty yellowed by now. Yes, we’re biased when it comes to T.J. Oshie. He was the dude in St. Louis who made engine noises when he was on the ice. He was the asshole who Blues fans couldn’t wait to point out had scored more at North Dakota than Jonathan Toews, for reasons we can’t understand. Maybe it made St. Louis residents feel good in a way that only booing Cardinals who happen to be black does. Oshie also has that big dumb face.

But by far what came to annoy us most about Oshie was the glow and esteem he got out of a shootout performance in the Olympics in 2014. While the actual performance may have been fun at the time, let’s review: It didn’t come in a game, but a gimmick. Second, it came in a gimmick after a game that didn’t matter. It was the preliminary round. It basically got the US nowhere. Third, it was a shootout win over a Russian team that flat out sucked. The US should have ripped that team apart.

Really, check out this defense: Nikita Nikitin, Slava Voynov, Fedor Tyutin, Alex Emelin, Andrei Markov, and a couple of KHL wanderers. That’s a defense that’s asking for its doors to be blown off. The US could only manage a couple of power play goals. We should have known it was going to be a balls-up then.

And it didn’t help the US win a medal. They were utterly smothered by Canada in the semis, perhaps the biggest gap between teams in a game that ended up 1-0 in history. It could have been 120 minutes long, and the dunderheaded roster USA Hockey put together led by the simply bewildered Dan Bylsma–who attempted to play a dump and chase game against one of the best defenses ever assembled–would have never scored. The US didn’t bother to care in the Bronze Medal game.

And Oshie has been coasting off that ever since. It seems to always come up, and don’t be shocked if it gets mentioned on NBC again today whenever he is on screen. It was a quirk. An anomaly. A fissure in time. Nothing more. So leave us alone.

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Game #50 – Capitals vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 20, 2019 1364 0

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Game #50 – Capitals vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 20, 2019 1491 0

Notes: Ovie has four goals in his last 15 games…it’s been a rough go for Niskanen and Orlov, who take the toughest assignments but aren’t doing nearly as well with them as they did last year. Those Cup runs sure do take a bite, don’t they?…Kuznetsov has one goal since December 2nd….Oshie has three goals in his last 11. Starting to see how the goddamn Islanders caught them…Wilson is shooting over 21%, in case you made the mistake of thinking he turned into a real player or something. Correction is coming for him…

Notes: Stop trying to make Caggiula happen. It’s not gonna happen…Looks from practice yesterday that Jokiharju will take a seat. He had a rough one in New York, but pairing him with Seabrook on his off-side certainly wasn’t doing him any favors. If Koekkoek was anything the Lightning sure could have used him on what is a underwhelming blue line behind Hedman…Saad had played well the past two games on the top six, so of course he gets demoted to a checking line for Caligula and Kahun…Perlini looks to be taking a seat too for Kunitz, because the world is fucked…

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My Piss And Moans Are The Fuel That Set My Head On Fire

By Sam Fels January 18, 2019 2048 0

The past season and a half for Hawks fans have been, if not a nightmare, then certainly close enough to study a nightmare’s habits and form. I’m sure every one has their own moment where things have felt like bottom. For me it was last night, because the Hawks actually hit bottom. They are 31st in the league. They just got pumped by one team that’s rebuilding in Newark, and then pretty easily held at arm’s length by another on Broadway. They have the worst goal-difference in the league. It certainly has been a long time since the Hawks were propping up the entire league and deservedly so. And yes, those of you thinking that in the long run this may be a good thing, you may be right. If they could carry this out, land in the top two in the draft, and pry Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko that would be a step forward. If you find relief or salvation in that, I won’t stop you.

You wouldn’t think I could still find any anger after all this, but I can find it anytime, anywhere. So here’s what’s floating around my head.

-Again, to end up bottom, is most every sport these days, you’re supposed to actually plan for that. And if you haven’t planned for that, everyone is fired. The Flyers are down here, and they’ve shitcanned everyone. The Senators are stupid and should fire everyone. The Kings have fired everyone. The Panthers are probably going to fire everyone. The Wings are going to fire everyone to get Steve Yzerman in.

The Hawks did fire a coach, but if I’m taking the Hawks at their word, then how can anyone above Coach Cool Youth Pastor keep their job? They told you this team was supposed to be competitive, and they’re last in the league. There’s no way that any front office that thought this roster could make a run at a playoff spot can be deemed to be competent enough to have any influence on a future NHL team. I kind of have to believe they said different things behind closed doors than they did in front of the press, because it’s the only way to sleep through the night. If this was the belief both privately and publicly, then everyone goes.

I know what they’ll do. You know what they’ll do. They’ll hide behind the fig leaf of Corey Crawford being hurt again, and wonky when he was healthy. But don’t buy it. Let’s play it out. Let’s say that Crawford was going .925 (which would be Vezina-worthy in this year’s environment) in his starts and the starts that had to go to Delia (because Delia wouldn’t be here if Crow were healthy). That would be 15 less goals the Hawks gave up. It’s elementary and coarse, but with no other goals scored that’s still a -23 GD. Sure, score effects probably change things but how much better would that GD really be? How much higher in the standings would they be? Five points? I guess that’s touching distance to a playoff spot. Would that be just because the sludge that the Central turned into behind Nashville and Winnipeg? And five points is an awfully ambitious estimate. It’s probably closer to three and you’re still nowhere.

-We’ve been over this and over this, but this was a GM who basically has said and wants you to think he sabotaged the blue line simply to stick it to a coach he wanted to fire over the summer anyway. He put Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta on this team because “they were Q-type players”, or so he thought, and the fact that they sucked was Q’s fault, according to Stan. This team probably isn’t much better if Dahlstrom starts the year here, though maybe a little if Murphy was healthy all season. Where else would anyone get away with this? In a league getting faster and faster all the time, Stan Bowman inserted two road cones on defense simply to put a middle finger up to his coach. That’s not just fireable, that’s catapult-able. That’s a broken organization that’s too arrogant to realize it. And that arrogance is built off success they were almost entirely, indirectly involved in. Again, they draw their esteem from being born on third.

-I want to believe in Jeremy Colliton, and I do honestly think he should be given a run with a real roster next season. I would like the Hawks, or any team really, getting rewarded for going outside the box. That’s assuming the veterans haven’t already given up on him, because they’re all going to be here next year and you’d need a buy-in from them otherwise the young players aren’t going to either. But there’s no evidence that anything has improved. The only thing different is that he’s not lashing Connor Murphy with birchwood between periods for who he isn’t like Q was last year.

Yes, this team isn’t built to play the system he apparently wants. To pull off this man-system in the defensive zone, you have to be oozing speed to pressure any puck carrier all the time. There can’t be any time to breathe. The Hawks aren’t that, and are far from that. So…why wouldn’t you tailor a system to the team you have, not the one you wish to have?

Every metric has gotten worse under Colliton. Their only salvation has been a power play that has clicked (which he does credit for) and Collin Delia (which he doesn’t). The penalty kill still sucks out loud. They still take three or four passes to get out of the zone when it should be one or two or even none. Duncan Keith rarely cares. He can yell at Erik Gustafsson all he wants but that’s not getting any better defensively. Henri Jokiharju has yet to flash. Do we want this guy at the controls when Adam Boqvist is here?

-Speaking of Jokiharju, let me be clear: I don’t think he’s a bust or anything close. But the more I watch him, the more he seems a high floor guy than a high ceiling one. He’s not that fast. He’s been buried with partners and assignments that don’t let him show off what he can do on the offensive side of the ice, but we haven’t seen any of it anywhere. And he can’t be what the Hawks need him to be if he’s not that quick. He’s smooth, but that’s not the same thing. Boqvist and Mitchell are both right-handed as well, so how’s that going to shake out?

If Colliton is taking orders from above, then “above” has to find a way to give Jokiharju a steady partner so we can see what we have here. There’s only one, and that’s Murphy. Flip him to the left side, which he did plenty last year, and let’s see what HarJu can do with some shackles off. Otherwise, what are we doing?

Ok, I got it all out. We’ll come back to this next week.

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Game #49 – Hawks vs. Rangers Preview/Bathroom Bleaching: Friends At The Bottom

By Sam Fels January 17, 2019 1719 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 16-23-9 Rangers 19-20-7

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago, NBCSN for the non-locals because NBC hates hockey

HEY I’M HOCKEYIN’ OVAH HERE!: Blueshirt Banter

So I’d get all “Harf Harf Harf!” about Original Six bullshit, except not even the people who would peddle that are going to be able to dress up a game between two of the league’s worst teams. Possibly the two worst teams. Like, seriously. The Hawks are 30th in the league and the Kings have a game in hand on them at the bottom. What makes it even funnier is that the Rangers are above them, and they planned to be here. The Hawks didn’t and are somehow doing it better. Or worse, depending on your point of view.

Anyway, the Rangers are sure to get worse after their deadline sell-off as they go through the rebuild we only wish the Hawks were capable of. Kevin Hayes is a goner, Mats Zuccarello won’t be too far behind, Chris Kreider is probably what would bring most back, if anyone will take Adam McQuaid and the only skill he has of having an angry face he’ll go too. Soon enough Dylan Strome’s brother could find himself on an NHL top line. That’s how you tank it right, folks!

The Rangers aren’t last in their division because the Devils tried the unique tack of not having a goalie all season and the Flyers being more Flyers than anyone could have possibly imagined. Because there’s nothing the Rangers are good at. They’re a stank possession team, ranking second-worst in team Corsi-percentage. They’re seventh-worst in xGF%. They give up the second-most attempts per game, and the fourth-most scoring chances. They’re shit-assed when it comes to high-danger chances against, too. They also create next to nothing, as they’re worst in attempts-for or shots-for per game at evens. This is the definition of a nothing team, as it should be when it’s in Year One of a rebuild. Whoever is going to matter when this team matters again probably isn’t here yet, aside from Filip Chytil and maybe Brett Howden. We’ll be nice and throw Ryan Lindgren on the defense on the list as well, and he’ll be playing his second NHL game tonight.

The big question that hangs over the Rangers like a noxious cloud is Henrik Lundqvist. Firstly, because he really isn’t that good any more. Secondly, because it would be hard to be good behind this team. Thirdly, because the Rangers could probably get some team to pony up to try and take him on one last run for a Cup. But King has shown on interest in leaving New York, so he and the Rangers have to be content to sit and watch each other crumble down into nothingness. Awfully handsome nothingness, though.

For the Hawks, a little news. Collin Delia will start, which…duh. Apparently Drake Caggiula is going to get a look with Kane and Strome, as the Hawks try to convince either us or themselves (it’s themselves) that Caggiula is anything but a foot soldier. He isn’t. Expect Saad back here by the second period. Or they’re trying to drive Kane to ask for a trade by playing him with bigger and bigger clods until the deadline until he just gives up. Cunning ploy that would be, but this organization isn’t capable of anything that clever.

I can’t dress this one up for you. It’s two garbage teams hurling themselves at each other for 60 minutes because the schedule says they have to. Enjoy it on whatever level works for you.

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