Everything Else

Now that the Hawks’ season once again lies in rubble and dust, you wouldn’t blame fans for turning their scarred eyes to the summer, and to the hopes of what the Hawks might do in free agency or via trade. One name you’re going to hear more than once is Jeff Skinner.

The Hawks have been connected to Skinner before, a couple times during his days in Carolina. Skinner was seemingly always on the block, and some of it had to do with a reputation of being a complete dickhead in the dressing room. But this is hockey, so even if that was true, what it’s based on could be literally anything. He might have worn orange New Balance shoes once and Jordan Staal would have lost his shit. We don’t know.

The Hawks couldn’t get much into the Skinner trade talks this past summer, as Skinner made it pretty clear he only wanted to go close to his home of Toronto. Buffalo counts. He didn’t cost all that much, three draft picks in the next two drafts and no first-rounders and also a prospect the Hurricanes have already moved along. He won’t cost any picks in the summer, but he will cost a fair amount of money.

Skinner is a lock to put up his first 40-goal season, to go with two other 30+ goal seasons. And if Mark Stone can get $9.5M a year (seriously that contract is STOOOOPID), and he’s never pierced 30, then Skinner’s and his agent’s eyes must be lighting up. Especially considering Skinner is just 26. Might they be looking at eight figures? That’s hard to justify, especially if you look deeper.

Skinner is an elite sniper, so his metrics are always going to be outdone by his actual performance. Or at least they usually will be. But this season is something of an outlier even in that. Skinner is averaging less shots, less attempts, and less chances than he has in the last five years, and that’s with getting to play with actual talent in Buffalo instead of Raleigh (the Canes never had a center in the stratus of Jack Eichel, until Aho this year). And yet he’s cashing in at 16.3% of his chances at even-strength, which is miles over what he’s done before. It’s also double his expected shooting percentage, based on the chances he’s getting. Again, Skinner is a gifted scorer, and he’ll regularly outshoot his expected percentages, but double? On the plus side, he does always stay on the positive side of the possession count and ahead of his team’s rate. But he’s also been heavily, heavily kept in the offensive zone on his shifts, so he’d better.

There also is an element of, “Yeah, but who gives a shit?” with Skinner. He’s never played a playoff game, won’t this year, and he’s never been all that close. So no team has been good because Skinner is on it. It’s hard for a winger to accomplish that, but it’s something an inquiring team might want to consider, especially if you’re going to hand him Scrooge McDuck’s vault. It could be that Skinner is just something of a luxury player and you’d better have everything else.

Again, 40 goals is 40 goals. But given the spike in his percentages, more likely Skinner tops out as a 30-35 goal guy. And that’s hardly a nothing. But it’s not something you pay more than $7M per year for, and Skinner is likely to be asking for more than that. Buyer beware.

 

Game #67 Preview Suite

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Everything Else

Melissa Burgess has been a longtime contributor to DieByTheBlade.com, a leading Sabres site. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess. This is the Q&A we did with her a month ago when the Hawks were in Buffalo, and things were a bit rosier for all of us. 

The Sabres had an incredible hot streak in the fall, but have been pretty poor since. What was going so right then that’s going so wrong now?

They did have an incredible hot streak, but it was a lucky one. So many of those wins came by one goal, whether in OT or shootout or regulation – it’s not like they were exactly running away with games. They just happened to find ways to win every night, grabbing the dirty goals, sometimes in the final minutes, and never giving up. So what’s changed? I think they just stopped meshing in that same way and it shows. Production drops off, pairings and lines don’t mesh the same, and all of a sudden, you find yourself out of the playoff picture.

What’s been the review of #1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin?

Dahlin has been doing well so far in his rookie season. I think it’s important always for people to remember that he’s going to make mistakes, as any player is. But for Dahlin, it’s not just what he’s doing this season or what he does next season that matters; he’s hopefully a part of this team long-term and that success matters too. I think he’s a promising young defenseman and I like what I see from him.

Jeff Skinner is pouring in the goals but has yet to sign an extension. What’s the buzz on the chances of his long term stay?

It seems more likely than not that Skinner stays in Buffalo. I mean, when’s the last time you saw him without a smile on his face? In all seriousness, I’ve heard contract talks will start soon and I’m super excited for that. He’s an unreal player and it’s a treat to have him.

Jack Eichel is on his way to blowing past his career high in points. What’s the feeling about him there? Being drafted alongside Connor McDavid doesn’t help, but it doesn’t feel like he’s usually considered in the “next crop” of superstars like McDavid, Matthews, Petterssen, and the like…

I’ve never thought about it like that, but that’s true. You see everyone talking about the others, but not Eichel so much. I think he’s a quiet producer – lots of assists but also lots of moves that maybe seem small and don’t result in points – and that makes him lower on people’s radar. Of course, McDavid has always been “The Next One” and Matthews being in Toronto, there’s a lot of hype there. But I think just the fact that Eichel is that quieter leader sometimes leaves him off people’s radar. I think he’s been a great fit for this team, he seems genuinely invested in the present and the future.

 

Game #67 Preview Suite

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Notes: Eichel has six goals in his last five…Hutton has been trash since the turn of the new year, with a .870 in January and a .906 in February…Middlestadt has two points in his last eight games, dropping him down the lineup a bit…How is Matt Hunwick still in the league?

Notes: We’re guessing a bit here because there was no official word out of the morning skate. There was talk about splitting up Kane and Toews out of practice yesterday, so that’s what we think it would look like if they do. But it could be anything…Might as well jumble the defense, but they won’t. Forsling probably gets back in to get your dinner to come back up…Kampf returns, which could see Kruger shift to wing and Anisimov centering the fourth line, but we have it the other way…Perlini is probably playing for his future here in these last 15 games. LA was a nice start, but he wasn’t anywhere against the Sharks…

 

Game #67 Preview Suite

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Everything Else

I should have learned long ago that your first instinct is usually the right one. You can review and hem and haw and contemplate, but generally the first thing you thought, or your first reaction, tends to be where you end up no matter how long and arduous the journey is. When the Hawks drafted Adam Boqvist with the eighth pick, our thought was that for a team that needed to get help as quickly as it could and didn’t really have time to wait for development, taking the biggest project in the top-10 didn’t jive. And that’s what the Hawks were saying before the draft. It didn’t make a ton of sense then, and I don’t know that it does now. To be fair to the Hawks and Boqvist, no one taken after him is turning heads, and really only Evan Bouchard looks a lock for next season.

So now we have this piece from friend of the program Scott Powers. It’s about what you already know. Offensively, Boqvist is dynamic, exciting, and already a force. And a force ready for the NHL. But on the other end, he’s a mess. He’s small, he’s not engaged all the time in his own end, and he’s got a lot to learn positionally. Which leaves the Hawks in something of a quandary.

This will be the height of captain obviousness, but they have to have major changes on the blue line next year. That is if they plan on being a playoff team again. But then again, I don’t know what their plan is. You don’t know what their plan is. And we don’t know if they know, whether intentionally or not.

They’ve pushed and pushed their FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE BLUE LINE all season to sell hope. But now it seems that Boqvist can’t be here next year. Jokiharju will be, but he has yet to prove that he’s top pairing material. Nicholas Beaudin is probably a bigger project than Boqvist. And there are conflicting reports on whether Ian Mitchell is going to sign or not, though he’s now looks the most ready for the top league and maybe by a distance, at least for those who aren’t already in the organization.

So the Hawks have to enter the offseason knowing they need a top-pairing. Not one half of it, but the whole thing. And they can’t count on Boqvist.

Or can they?

The calculation to me-and I’m something of a nutjob, admittedly–is whether Boqvist is going to push the play enough that he’ll outscore/out-possess whatever stains he makes on the carpet in the defensive end. Remember what Erik Karlsson looked like in his own end when he first came up (and he’s still not really all that good there, but better). He was a disaster defensively. But it didn’t matter, because he kept the play in the other end 55%-60% of the time, or at least miles above what the rest of the team is. I don’t know how you make that calculation, but if you’re saying that his offensive game is already NHL-level, then fuck it, what do you really have to lose here? Just accept that for three to four years you’ll have to watch his defensive work through your fingers, and take the 50-60 points that come along with it as well as the puck moving in the right direction most of the time. Accuse me of hyperbole if you want, but the Hawks haven’t shied from the Karlsson-comparison themselves.

And even still, that doesn’t solve your problems. The Hawks won’t think like this, but in reality for next year they have Murphy flipping to the left side with Jokiharju, and Keith and Gustafsson on a ride-or-die third-pairing. Boqvist can’t be elevated above that, but you could arrange it somehow. Tell Forsling, Koekkoek, and Dahlstrom to go screw.

So let’s say they’re going to be boring and careful, and let Boqvist beat up on children in London for another season. You need two players. Whether that’s an offer-sheeted Trouba, or god please Karlsson, or the middle-of-the-road Jake Gardiner, or something else. You have to do something.

And yet I don’t know that they have to. I can’t tell you what Kane, Toews, and Keith would think about a third season in the toilet, though I’m pretty sure Kane doesn’t want to waste another MVP-worthy performance on the remedial class. I have no idea what their season-ticket renewal rate is for next year, we’ll find out I’m sure, but a second-straight playoff-less season has to put something of a dent in it.. A third would have to cause an actual tear, no? And are you really planning on making your move when Toews is 33 and Kane is 32? Toews is already declining in his defensive game, how much farther does he have to go?

But then, and it’s like we’ve said all year, you simply don’t have room for all of these kids. Even if you buyout Seabrook, even if you use Keith undermining his coach as a wedge to drive him out of town, there’s still not enough room. Where do you put them all? The other problem is that if Mitchell is going to be a signing-challenge, he’s basically unmovable. There are hard decisions to make.

And there’s nothing to suggest the Hawks have a plan to address this all (we know there’s a process). We won’t find out until draft day, and until then, it’s going to be urpy.

Everything Else

First Screen Viewing

Hurricanes vs. Bruins – 6pm

The Bs don’t have  much to play for other than figuring out where their series against the Leafs begins and ends. But the Canes might be the NHL’s best roadshow right now, and will try and start to move clear of the Pittsburgh-Columbus-Montreal mess around the wildcards. The addition of Nino Neiderrieter has been particularly, and predictably, a boost for them. They’re sporting two scoring lines for once, along with that brilliant blue line (Dougie is crushing fools again), and even getting goaltending. While they’re only one point clear of the wildcard spots, the five points to the top of the division doesn’t really look that much bigger with the way they’re going. And they anger old, white men. You have to love it.

Second Screen Viewing

Jets vs Lightning – 6:30

Yeah yeah yeah…”FINAL PREVIEW.” I mean, maybe. The Bolts long ago lost anything to play for except for awards and the beating of ghosts. And yet they still rack up the points. They’re just waiting now to violate one of the said grouping above. The Jets can’t seem to get unfucked and yet are still top of the division with three games in hand on the Preds. They don’t have much of a defense without Dustin Byfuglien, which doesn’t make any goddamn sense. But neither does life. Two immense collections of forward talent lay waste to each other here.

Other Games

Blue Jackets vs. Devils – 6pm

Senators vs. Islanders – 6pm

Panthers vs. Penguins – 6pm

Wild vs. Predators – 7pm

Rangers vs. Stars – 7:30

Red Wings vs. Avalanche – 8pm

Ducks vs. Coyotes – 8pm

Canadiens vs. Kings – 9:30

Everything Else

By now you know I like to do this at certain points throughout the year. It’s no secret I think the NHL standings system is stupid, and actually a conspiracy to give most every team at least the appearance of competitiveness. Almost everyone can be over or near .500, when in reality they’re nowhere close. The loser-point is a crime. So let’s see what’s really going on. There are two ways I like to do it. One is to relegate both overtime wins and losses to mere ties, and this way we can see who is winning games in regulation. The second is to go with a 3-2-1-0 system, where any game won in overtime or shootout is two points, and one lost in that fashion is one point.

So first, the standings as they are:

Atlantic Division GP W L OL PTS
Tampa Bay Lightning 66 50 12 4 104
Boston Bruins 65 39 17 9 87
Toronto Maple Leafs 65 40 21 4 84
Montreal Canadiens 66 35 24 7 77
Buffalo Sabres 65 30 27 8 68
Florida Panthers 65 28 26 11 67
Detroit Red Wings 65 23 33 9 55
Ottawa Senators 66 23 38 5 51
Metropolitan Division GP W L OL PTS
Washington Capitals 66 38 21 7 83
New York Islanders 65 37 21 7 81
Carolina Hurricanes 65 36 23 6 78
Pittsburgh Penguins 65 34 22 9 77
Columbus Blue Jackets 65 36 26 3 75
Philadelphia Flyers 66 32 26 8 72
New York Rangers 65 27 27 11 65
New Jersey Devils 66 25 33 8 58
Central Division GP W L OL PTS
Winnipeg Jets 65 39 22 4 82
Nashville Predators 68 38 25 5 81
St. Louis Blues 65 34 25 6 74
Dallas Stars 65 33 27 5 71
Minnesota Wild 66 32 27 7 71
Colorado Avalanche 66 28 26 12 68
Chicago Blackhawks 66 27 30 9 63
Pacific Division GP W L OL PTS
Calgary Flames 65 41 17 7 89
San Jose Sharks 66 39 19 8 86
Vegas Golden Knights 67 36 26 5 77
Arizona Coyotes 65 32 28 5 69
Edmonton Oilers 65 28 30 7 63
Vancouver Canucks 66 27 30 9 63
Anaheim Ducks 66 25 32 9 59
Los Angeles Kings 65 24 33 8 56

Now, the one with only ties and no OT results:

Atlantic Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Tampa Bay Lightning 66 50 44 12 6 4 98
Boston Bruins 65 39 32 17 7 9 80
Toronto Maple Leafs 65 40 34 21 6 4 78
Montreal Canadiens 66 35 31 24 4 7 73
Buffalo Sabres 65 30 23 27 7 8 61
Florida Panthers 65 28 21 26 7 11 60
Detroit Red Wings 65 23 16 33 7 9 48
Ottawa Senators 66 23 18 38 5 5 46
Metropolitan Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Washington Capitals 66 38 33 21 5 7 78
New York Islanders 65 37 32 21 5 7 76
Carolina Hurricanes 65 36 32 23 4 6 74
Pittsburgh Penguins 65 34 30 22 4 9 73
Columbus Blue Jackets 65 36 28 26 8 3 67
Philadelphia Flyers 66 32 27 26 5 8 67
New York Rangers 65 27 26 27 1 11 64
New Jersey Devils 66 25 22 33 3 8 55
Central Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Winnipeg Jets 65 39 33 22 6 4 76
Nashville Predators 68 38 33 25 5 5 76
St. Louis Blues 65 34 29 25 5 6 69
Minnesota Wild 66 32 29 27 3 7 68
Colorado Avalanche 66 28 27 26 1 12 67
Dallas Stars 65 33 27 27 6 5 65
Chicago Blackhawks 66 27 19 30 8 9 55
Pacific Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Calgary Flames 65 41 36 17 5 7 84
San Jose Sharks 66 39 33 19 6 8 80
Vegas Golden Knights 67 36 32 26 4 5 73
Arizona Coyotes 65 32 27 28 5 5 64
Vancouver Canucks 66 27 22 30 5 9 58
Edmonton Oilers 65 28 22 30 6 7 57
Anaheim Ducks 66 25 21 32 4 9 55
Los Angeles Kings 65 24 19 33 5 8 51

As you can see, not that much changes, but there are some. One, the Jackets would be completely adrift in the Metro, and really the playoffs altogether. The Hurricanes would be in with a real shout of winning the Metro as well. The Lightning wouldn’t have a prayer of catching the ’77 Canadiens. Dallas would fall behind the Wild and Avalanche, and the Hawks would be hopelessly marooned to the bottom of the Central, with their 19 regulation wins being third-worst in the league. Arizona would barely be hanging on in the playoff race.

Now with the 3-2-1-0 system:

Atlantic Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Tampa Bay Lightning 66 50 44 12 6 4 148
Boston Bruins 65 39 32 17 7 9 119
Toronto Maple Leafs 65 40 34 21 6 4 118
Montreal Canadiens 66 35 31 24 4 7 108
Buffalo Sabres 65 30 23 27 7 8 91
Florida Panthers 65 28 21 26 7 11 88
Detroit Red Wings 65 23 16 33 7 9 71
Ottawa Senators 66 23 18 38 5 5 69
Metropolitan Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Washington Capitals 66 38 33 21 5 7 116
New York Islanders 65 37 32 21 5 7 113
Carolina Hurricanes 65 36 32 23 4 6 110
Pittsburgh Penguins 65 34 30 22 4 9 107
Columbus Blue Jackets 65 36 28 26 8 3 103
Philadelphia Flyers 66 32 27 26 5 8 99
New York Rangers 65 27 26 27 1 11 91
New Jersey Devils 66 25 22 33 3 8 80
Central Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Winnipeg Jets 65 39 33 22 6 4 115
Nashville Predators 68 38 33 25 5 5 114
St. Louis Blues 65 34 29 25 5 6 103
Minnesota Wild 66 32 29 27 3 7 100
Colorado Avalanche 66 28 27 26 1 12 95
Dallas Stars 65 33 27 27 6 5 98
Chicago Blackhawks 66 27 19 30 8 9 82
Pacific Division GP W REG W L OTW OL PTS
Calgary Flames 65 41 36 17 5 7 125
San Jose Sharks 66 39 33 19 6 8 119
Vegas Golden Knights 67 36 32 26 4 5 109
Arizona Coyotes 65 32 27 28 5 5 96
Vancouver Canucks 66 27 22 30 5 9 85
Edmonton Oilers 65 28 22 30 6 7 85
Anaheim Ducks 66 25 21 32 4 9 80
Los Angeles Kings 65 24 19 33 5 8 75

Differences here: No one is within 23 points of the Lightning. The Wings and Senators have a firm grasp on the top two spots in the lottery. Again, Carolina has a real shot at a division crown. The Coyotes have a real shout at a playoff spot.

The changes aren’t that big, but there are some that teams and fanbases would notice.

Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

The one bonus of covering a bad team is that you rarely run out of material. But we’ve come to a point where I’ve run out of things to say. I’ll you need to know about this Hawks team is that they really did try tonight. They fought back twice against a Cup contender. And the Sharks barely got out of second gear, never looked truly troubled, and seemed always assured they would run out easy victors, And they did. They turned it on for like eight minutes, got the two goals they needed, and that was that.

So now that the Hawks have in fact sought and found their own water level, the question is what to do with the rest of the year. The truly progressive team, the one that sees things as they are (and no NHL team has ever done this before so they won’t either) would basically start scratching Toews, Keith, Seabrook and even DeBrincat and Strome semi-regularly for the last 16 games. You’ll never be able to scratch Kane when he’s competing for a Hart Trophy, unless you want a full-out mutiny on your hands.

But right now you’re on pace to draft 7th, which doesn’t do you a whole lot of good for next year at least. You already know you have something with Strome and Top Cat, and there’s no one else to develop. So why bother?

But they won’t do that, so let’s get through the rest of it…

The Two Obs

-I guess maybe it says something that after all his vets went to the zoo on him yesterday in LA, Coach Cool Youth Pastor saw them actually try tonight. Then again, knowing they were playing the Sharks, they probably were just afraid of getting totally embarrassed again like San Jose did here at the United Center. There are far more questions about the coach than answers.

-Brandon Saad was replaced on Daydream Nation’s wing by Chris Kunitz, and he played the game like he was sulking over it. And honestly, I don’t blame him. He didn’t do anything wrong yesterday, and watched his spot given to a corpse. And then Kunitz contributed to the back-breaking goal by forcing a pass on an odd-man break that was somehow both behind Toews and between his legs. They told you they thought this was a playoff team.

-Brendan Perlini was tried with The Otter Boys, and they actually had one of their rare plus-possession games. I guess this is worth more of a look, but Perlini is starting to give off serious Jack Skille waves in that he’s fast and can shoot and can do literally nothing else.

-After he couldn’t locate a fuck to give with FBI support yesterday and then airing out his coach in the press, Duncan Keith got completely turned into cat vomit for the Sharks’ first goal. It’s not the best look. He also had a 34% Corsi tonight.

Keith’s number will get retired. And I’ll cut him as much slack as possible, But you can’t stand in defiance of your team and coach publicly when you’re playing as badly as this. He needs to pick a lane, which is something he hasn’t been able to do all season.

-A questions we’ll need to ask the rest of the season is who exactly Colliton has made better. The first answer will be Strome, but you could easily point to playing with greater talent for the main reason for his signs of life. The defense is worse, and whatever forward doesn’t get to share time with Kane either at evens or on the power play has at best stalled out.

-Oh, and the Hawks took a reaching, neutral zone penalty on Michael Haley, because that’s someone you really have to stop steaming into your zone. That’s recognition at its highest.

-Brent Seabrook and Gustav Forsling ended up with 60%+ possession marks. But Seabs topped that off with a no-look, behind the back pass to no one leading to the empty-netter. Bottomless Pistol Pete out here, motherfuckers.

-Back when I used to do these after too much imbibing I didn’t have to switch glasses. This is growing up.

Fuck the rest of it. Onwards…

Everything Else

One of the biggest watches before the trade deadline is what the Sharks would do about the goaltending situation. Though they are amongst one of the best teams in the league in every metric and points-total, they have the worst goaltending in the league, at least at even-strength. At evens, they’re the only team under .900. At all strengths, only the Panthers are near them, and they’re both tied for worst in the league. Considering where the Sharks are, it’s a borderline miracle.

So would they opt for Jimmy Howard? Would they make even more of an all-in push than they had already and go after Sergei Bobrovsky? Maybe try to wheeze one last run out of Roberto Luongo?

It appears they’re hoping that history repeats itself.

The Sharks didn’t do anything, and will go into the playoffs hoping that Martin Jones just has some kind of awakening in the postseason. He certainly has the pedigree, as in three playoff runs with the Sharks he has a career .926 SV%. But then again, those all came with solid regular season numbers before them. Now, he’ll be rolling into the playoffs after being dog meat for the regular season. The only thing that suggests he can just turn it around is hope, and that Braden Holtby did it last year.

The similarities between the two are striking. Both had been starters for only three seasons before suffering a regular season brain bubble. Holtby was 28 when things went south on him, and Jones is 29 this year. Holtby was coming off a higher platform, as he was coming off a Jennings Trophy and a second-place finish to backing up his first Vezina with a repeat. Jones was merely good last season. There was really no inkling that such a thing could be coming.

Holtby put up a .907 SV% last year during the regular season, 18 points off what he had done the season prior. Jones is at .896 this year, 19 points off what he put up last season. But whereas Holtby at least had the safety net of Phillip Grubauer’s breakout season last spring (and Grubauer started Games 1 and 2 in the first round), it’s all going to be on Jones this time around. Holtby responded by coming in and putting up a .922 for the Caps’ run to the Cup. What will Jones do?

The thing is, Jones doesn’t need to do that for the Sharks to get to 16. Whereas the Caps needed just about every save they got, playing as they did kept them on the margins, the Sharks dominate play to such a degree that league average goaltending probably sees them through. Even just league-average play in net this season would have seen them give up 29 less goals at even-strength, which by some models is nearly 10 points in the standings. In a playoff series an additional goal, or a goal less, every two games doesn’t sound like much, but as you know it can be.

The teams are in different situations as well. Whereas it was thought the Caps were nearing the end of their window, they certainly didn’t feel like an all-in team. The Sharks are, thanks to the trade for Erik Karlsson and the ages of the important players. So why not keep going for the Cup that has eluded them their entire existence? The Sharks have based this on loyalty. The  Caps can claim they did, but that wouldn’t be true as they only turned back to Holtby when Grubauer wasn’t up to it. It somewhat lifted the pressure off Holtby. Jones will have no such relief.

Doug Wilson seems to have staked his entire legacy on this one. That’s a lot to ask of loyalty.

 

Game #66 Preview Suite

Preview

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Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built