Game #72 Preview Suite
Notes: Not only did the Canucks play last night, and not only are they bad, but they’re beat up. Ben Hutton, Brandon Sutter, Antoine Roussel, and Chris Tanev are done for the season, and Ryan Spooner is pretty close to that. This wasn’t a team that was screaming with depth before, so you can see why their half-assed playoff chase is falling by the wayside…Pettersson has cooled off a bit, with “only” 15 points in the last 21 games, but he wasn’t going to shoot over 20% forever…His linemate Boeser is under no such streaks though, as he has points in his last six and has been a problem for the Hawks in the past…Virtanen has two goals in 2019, so that’s working out well…Remember kids, if Luke Schenn is on your blue line, then it probably sucks…
Notes: Wouldn’t expect any changes here. Koekkoek came in for Dahlstrom on Saturday and the Hawks gave up 48 shots to a mediocre team, so he probably gets back in to try and help Murphy. Either for Forsling or Koekkoek, it doesn’t matter…Perlini was named second star of the week by the NHL, and why wouldn’t he be? Don’t buy in yet, he still smacks of a third line weapon, but at least he’s being used on the PK where he has a chance to do some real damage too. They need all the speed they can get on that unit…If Colliton had any balls they’d call up Jokiharju has have him replace Seabrook, but we won’t hop on one foot waiting for that to happen…
Game #72 Preview Suite
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 31-30-9 Canadiens 37-27-7
PUCK DROP: 6pm
TV: WGN
WELL WE’RE NOT GONNA, WE’RE GONNA HAVE A SANDWICH: Habs Eyes On The Prize
Two teams scrapping desperately for playoff spots will meet up on Hockey Night In Canada in Montreal tonight. Which sounds weird given there’s a 10-point difference between the two. But that’s the tale of East and West this year. We don’t make the rules.
Though they’re hardly the best team in the East you can find, there are not too many teams the Hawks should want to see less after their attempted 3rd period sepuku against the Leafs on Wednesday. That’s because the Habs are one of the faster teams around, with four lines of nippy forwards whose only aim is to get up the ice as quickly and efficiently as possible. They’re one of the best possession teams in the league, and are probably a premier sniper away from being much higher in the standings. Seeing as how the Hawks are slow and don’t possess the puck, it’s not really the best matchup at all. You saw what happened when a fast team really gets going against the Hawks last out. They’re still picking up parts of the Hawks off the Toronto ice and trying to identify it through dental records.
But still the Habs are clinging on in the East and the Atlantic. If the music were to stop today, Les Habitants would not have a chair and would have to sit over there with a juice box. They’re two points behind both the Jackets and Hurricanes for the wildcard spots, and the Canes have a game in hand as well. It would be a second-straight season of no playoffs and third in four, which for an organization that thinks of itself as the center of the hockey world, if not universe entirely, would be unacceptable. So how did we get here?
Hard to figure. The big, glaring, pulsing rash is that the Canadiens have a power play that looks like what the Hawks’ used to looked like. It’s dead last in the league, connecting at a 12% rate. Pretty much everywhere else the Habs are at least middle of the pack, if not better, but because they can’t get easier goals they’re having to win every game at even-strength. And that’s hard to do when you’re merely functional everywhere else and not buoyant. It basically leaves you with the good record Montreal has, but in the East that’s only enough to hope to squeeze in.
Up and down the lineup you’ll see players slotted just a touch higher than they should be. Brendan Gallagher and Max Domi have been the most dynamic, but they’re both probably second-line players on a really good team. Only one of them is here. Phillip Danault causes cartoon hearts to float out of our chest, but he’s a #3 and not a #2. Tomas Tatar shouldn’t be on a top-six of a team that means to do anything meaningful, as Red Wings fans can attest. It’s a team that is just short pretty much everywhere.
And Carey Price is also functional-to-good, though not at the moment the galactic being he used to be. A .915 SV% is nothing to sneeze at these days, but doesn’t put him amongst the league leaders, which used to be his hood. He’s also had to play more than the Canadiens would have liked, because–and stop me if you’ve heard this before–Antti Niemi as the backup has been a gas leak. He’s had one start in the past month, and you’d have to imagine they’re going to have to ride Price now to 65+ starts which can’t ever have been the plan.
That doesn’t mean they can’t be a headache on a given night, especially for a leaden-footed defense like the Hawks. The Bleu, Blanc, and Rouge have gotten on the popular train and now let their forwards streak up the ice, trying to get up into and around the opposing defense before the forwards can help out. The Hawks really struggle with this, so they’ll have to be as clean as possible tonight. That means no turnovers at either line, and busting it back. If the Hawks can keep the puck for any period of time, the Habs defense isn’t anything that would cause a sonnet to be written, and Price isn’t the set of iron bars he used to be. But open up a sliver to this team and they can turn it into a wound pretty quickly. And then Max Domi is smiling or Andrew Shaw is screaming or Brendan Gallagher is yapping and you’ll want to throw your shoe through the TV.
For the Hawks, wouldn’t expect any changes. Crawford is healthy and continent, so that’s three periods he gets to play. He usually plays pretty damn well back home in Montreal, and the Hawks will likely need it.
The Hawks already got a bonus two points out of this Canadian swing. But that doesn’t matter if you don’t get at least one, and really both, of the points out of here that you would have been aiming for before it began. There’s a long way to go, but it is possible as the Canucks and Flyers at home are next and then a home-and-home with a direct competitor in Colorado. It’s all in front of the Hawks for the next week. It’ll take almost all of the points there, if not all, but that’s the path they’ve chosen. If they’re serious about this, they’ll need every last drop before that last week gauntlet of Winnipeg, St. Louis, Dallas, and Nashville. These are two they probably need to get.
Game #71 Preview Suite
It’s been three seasons now, so the shock of the Shea Weber-PK Subban trade has worn off. Subban has gone on to anchor a Cup-contender for his entire time in Nashville, while Weber’s record in Montreal is much more spotty. Canadiens diehards (read: sycophants) would tell you that all of Subban’s teammates hate him in Nashville, as they did in Montreal, at least according to the tinfoil hat brigade. Sadly for the Habs, Weber hasn’t been around all that much to generate any kind of opinion amongst those who share his colors.
Weber’s scoring has maintained its usual pace. It’s just a tick below what he did in yellow, but he’s been better than a point-per-every-other-game. The problem is that Weber hasn’t been able to make the bell that often of late. He only played 26 games last year, and missed an additional 23 this year. Now, that’s all due to one knee surgery, but a large, physical d-man on a repaired knee is not the optimal situation. Still, before that Weber was the picture of stability, never missing more than four games in a year.
Digging a bit deeper, Weber has never really been a great metric player. He hasn’t carried a possession-rate above his team’s rate since 2012. He’s never been all that far below it either, but he’ll go as the team goes. His scoring-chance relative numbers are pretty much the same. Where Weber has excelled in the great chances department, as he’s been above the rate in high-danger percentage in the past four seasons. That has continued this season as well, though not as high as the past three.
The question for the Canadiens is does Weber fit into the new world they’ve created. Weber was brought in back when the Habs were under Michel Therrien and were still under the impression they had to be knuckle-dragging, frothing swamp creatures that chased the coveted-by-morons label “hard to play against.” When that resulted in exactly dick, the Habs have spent the past year transitioning into a smaller, faster team that tries to get up the ice as soon as possible. Play off the rush, carry the puck through the neutral zone and and into the offensive one, and try and generate chances before the other team can get set up. It’s parroting or copying what the Penguins and Knights and others have done recently.
Weber is still a gifted passer, but especially on a surgically-repaired knee he’s never been all that quick. Maybe Weber can adapt to flying passes from his zone to the other blue line to streaking forwards. He’s going to have to. He’s never been one to carry the puck himself, that’s what Roman Josi was for in Nashville, and Ryan Suter before that. But if you’re stationary, that means quicker and quicker forechecking forwards can get to you before you hit those outlet passes. Even if Weber can open himself up now, he’s 33 and coming off knee problems. How much more time until he can’t?
Which is obviously a problem, because as you probably know Weber is signed until the Earth’s heat-death. These days his $7.8M hit doesn’t look as bad (wait until Gustafsson asks for this in the summer of ’20), but it’s not insignificant either. We all knew this when the move was made, obviously.
The Canadiens didn’t have to move too much comfortable furniture to upgrade to this lightning-bug team. Max Pacioretty didn’t really fit, but he was leaving anyway and he hasn’t fit all that well in Vegas either who do the same thing. Karl Alzner ended up in the AHL. But they may soon find they have the biggest decision to make yet.
Game #71 Preview Suite
We went big-timing for this one. A Saturday night in Montreal calls for that. Andrew Berkshire is the analytics dude for Sportsnet north of The Wall. Follow him @AndrewBerkshire.
Metrically, the Canadiens are one of the better teams around. Claude Julien has transitioned them to a pretty quick team that plays that way. Their PDO is fine, they get decent goaltending. So why is this team barely scratching away for a playoff spot?
There’s a few things that the public data misses about the Canadiens, the first thing is that they’re one of the league’s worst pass defence teams. Opponents don’t have much trouble zipping the puck through lanes in the Habs’ end, and even if the Canadiens aren’t giving up a ton of chances, the ones they do give up are of high quality.
The other factor is that while their metrics look great at 5-vs-5, they’re godawful on special teams. Price had phenomenal penalty killing numbers for most of the season, even while he was struggling, and that hid their ineptitude there. Most of the focus is on the powerplay, but the penalty kill has been nearly as bad. Those are the issues currently holding them back.
At the time of the trade, we thought the Have got the worst of the Domi-for-Galchenyuk trade. Um…whoops?
I think at the time of the trade that was a relatively logical assumption, Galchenyuk was being traded at his lowest value, and Domi had always seemed a little lost offensively in Arizona after his rookie season. There’s something in the water in Arizona that just prevents goal scoring. Galchenyuk is having a pretty awful offensive season, and the only Coyotes forward with more points is Clayton Keller, and he leads the team in goals with 15. How is Arizona in a playoff position? (watch a Western Conference game sometime -ED)
Domi was taken from what looks like a situation that is the death of offence, and was dropped into a system that appears to be tailor made for his playing style. Lots of attacking off the rush with speed, and he has free reign to skate the puck through the neutral zone. I think it might be the perfect situation for an underrated player. It doesn’t hurt that he’s also playing secondary minutes now too. The Gallagher line is the primary one, and Domi can focus on secondary matchups.
We’ve tried making the case that Jesperi Kotkaniemi should be a Selke candidate. Even if he’s not now, how many will he win before he’s through? 12? 15? 27 as they give him bonus ones?
I loved this article by Olivier Bouchard on Kotkaniemi’s defensive play. He certainly looks like a budding star defensive forward, but between the tail end of Patrice Bergeron‘s career and the rise of Aleksander Barkov, we might be waiting a long while for him to win one.
Has Victor Mete finally broken through with Julien?
I think Julien’s usage of Mete has been pretty strong since he broke into the league, he didn’t want to overload him and probably still doesn’t. As much as Mete has improved, I think the reason he’s used a bunch right now has more to do with the cavernous hole Montreal has on the left side defence than anything.
Seriously, how do you give up eight to the Ducks?
A great question! I’m not sure if the emotional rollercoaster the Habs were riding the first 50 games of the season has broken down or if that 3-0 blown lead against the Maple Leafs broke their confidence, but they’re playing pretty awful lately. Somehow, awful enough to give up eight to the Ducks.
Game #71 Preview Suite
We’re not anti-facial hair. We can’t be. Our editor doesn’t have a chin and uses a beard to cover that up. But there seems to be a hockey rule that if you’re going to wear a beard full-time, it has to be stupidly big. And if you have a big, stupid beard, you can probably fool people into thinking you’re intimidating and a physical presence. You look like one, so you must be one. If you think hockey scouting has moved beyond “looking like one,” you haven’t been paying attention. Hockey scouts are still trying to sell jeans here, to borrow a term.
Jordie Benn has that along with the lucky last name policy. Don’t make it complicated. Jordie Benn sucks. He always has. If his name was Jordie Shnrub he’d be on a bus somewhere heading to somewhere you wouldn’t want to be. Throw in a big beard, and you can’t get rid of him. Oh he blocks a lot of shots? Does it count when you simply can’t get out of the way? We don’t think it does.
And he’s got a beard. He’s not Joe Thornton, who at least has old-man-who’s-too-tired-to-shave excuse built in. He’s not Brent Burns, who’s trying really hard to be weird. This isn’t Park Slope, so fuck off with that shit, Jordie. We might actually believe you growl and grunt when on the ice. You clearly want us to. But it’s not helping with anything.
Unless you’re in Anthrax, trim that shit up and leave us alone.
Game #71 Preview Suite
Notes: Crawford seems to have gotten over the shits, so he’s back in tonight…It was a rough one for the fourth line when the Leafs got going, as they were charged with trying to keep Auston Matthews on a leash. You know how it went…Could see Hayden back in, but as this is probably Kunitz’s last visit to Montreal and that probably means something, don’t count on it…Toews against Kotkaniemi ought to be an interesting watch, which should also free up Strome…
Notes: The bottom-six is kind of a guess, and Julien tends to mix and match them as we go along…Since Price gave up eight to the Ducks he’s only surrendered three on 59 shots in two games, though that was New Jersey and Detroit…Drouin hasn’t scored since February 7th…Petry and Kulak are where most of the offense comes from…Whatever Kotkaniemi doesn’t take Danault will, and Strome can probably expect him up his ass all night…
Game #71 Preview Suite
First Screen Viewing
Flames vs. Jets – Saturday, 6pm
It’s funny how the top four teams in the West have kind of kept getting right to the ledge of being genuinely great and then trip over their own dick and have to start again. They’ll be involved with each other on Saturday night, which might give us some clarity on the divisions. The Flames can’t get a save from anyone right now, and the Jets can’t either and they don’t play defense so good. They should be running away from the Predators, who have hung around and are a point behind. They’re coming off a relatively easy win over the Bruins last night at least. The Flames could overtake the Sharks as well, even though both Rittich and Smith have provided Cottonelle keeping of late. Still, I’ll be dead in the cold, cold ground before I recognize the Knights, so here’s two of the four who matter in the West.
Second Screen Viewing
Predators vs. Sharks – Saturday, 9:30
And the other halves of the divisional discussion play on the same night. Speaking of not getting saves, here’s San Jose somehow coughing up a game at home to the Panthers. This was after a buzzer-beater win in Winnipeg, so I guess we can excuse them for being lightly focused. They remain a point ahead of the Flames in a truly startling race between teams with no goalies. You might never see this again. It’s also not been smooth sailing for the Preds, who people are finally figuring out might just be a one-line team with an abhorrent power play depending on a 36-year-old goalie with a .901 SV% since December 1st. They’re 16-12-3 since the turn of the year, which is about a 92-point pace, which is…fine? Ok? Not all that great? Anyway, they can still claim the Central crown if they get it together here soon, Grouch.
Other Games
Friday
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm
Knights vs. Stars – 7pm
Ducks vs. Avalanche – 8pm
Rangers vs. Flames – 8pm
Devils vs. Canucks – 9pm
Saturday
Blues vs. Penguins – 12pm
Islanders vs. Red Wings – 12pm
Panthers vs. Kings – 3pm
Blue Jackets vs. Bruins – 6pm
Maple Leafs vs. Senators – 6pm
Capitals vs. Lighting – 6pm
Sabres vs. Hurricanes – 6pm
Rangers vs. Wild – 7pm
Oilers vs. Coyotes – 9pm
Sunday
Devils vs. Avalanche – 2pm
Blues vs. Sabres – 4pm
Islanders vs. Wild – 5pm
Canucks vs. Stars – 6pm
Flyers vs. Penguins – 6:30
Panthers vs. Ducks – 8pm
Oilers vs Knights – 9pm
I think we can all agree, which sadly the organization won’t, that if you’re a team that has given up two of the eight 30-shot periods in NHL HISTORY, your blue line probably needs rebuilding from scratch. Blow it all up, start over, you lost. Maybe you can pick through the scraps and keep one or two pieces after you clear the soot, but you have the longest possible distance to go to form a credible or representative NHL blue line than anyone right now, and maybe fewer in history have either.
Let’s use a rough measure. According to evolved-hockey.com, the Hawks 2.9 expected goals-against at even strength per 60 minutes is the worst mark in the analytic era, which goes back to 2008. That’s 11 seasons, and no one’s done worse. Their 3.34 xGA/60 in all situations is also worst in 11 years. No team that we’ve been able to measure this way has been worse defensively than the Hawks, at least when it comes to the amount and types of chances they’re surrendering. So while you may hear, “THIS IS THE WORST DEFENSE I’VE EVER SEEN!” a lot from a lot of people who can’t find their own ass with both hands as they spill a Miller Lite on you, in this case it’s actually true.
Which is probably why the Hawks have been pushing their Four Horsemen Of The Defensive Prospects Apocalypse (we’ll come up with a better name, I promise) all season. They have to sell you on something, and they have to try and convince literally anyone they have any idea how to build a defense after foisting this upon you for a season (and really two seasons). Everything will be all right when they get here, is what they’re telling you. We know what we’re doing, just wait and see.
Well, one of them already was here, and that’s Henri Jokiharju. He’s currently in Rockford, playing on their top pairing, got 12 points in 15 games and everyone pretty much agrees he looks good there. And as we’ve said before, it’s not Jokiharju’s fault that the Hawks have built a defense where a 19-year-old kid who needs seasoning is also one of their three best d-men. If you have any arguments about that, Duncan Keith, I’ll point you to Wednesday’s turnover and then politely ask you to wait in the corner and think about what you’ve done.
Here’s the thing I’ve been wrestling with in the past few days, though: If the reasoning, or part of it, for sending The HarJu down was so that he could be part of a playoff push and play games with something on the line, then shouldn’t he be here now? The Hawks keep telling you they’re in it, and whether we like it or not a win tomorrow combined with a Coyotes loss (playing the Oilers so don’t count on it) pulls them within four points with a game in hand. And they still go to Arizona yet. So, no matter how loosely, they’re “in” it.
So what is it? If you’re saying these games matter and you’re trying to win, and at this point your draft pick is borked anyway, then you should be icing your best team. You wouldn’t put Jokiharju’s long-term development over what’s here in front of you. And if making the first round and then getting turned to plasma by the Sharks is really a worthy goal to your veterans, how exactly do you sell them on Jokiharju not being here? They’re not blind, they know the defense sucks, and they know that #28 is better than at least three guys you’re icing every night.
Flip Murphy to the left side, put Jokharju with him, and be done with it. Or, better yet, strap a feedbag to Seabrook, let him loose in some parking lot in Bucktown, and come back for him sometime in April, and let Jokiharju get some sheltered shifts on a third-pairing. Otherwise, you’re full of shit.
But we already knew that.
-Speaking of which, Scott Powers was on his travels again, speaking to Ian Mitchell in Denver (and if you’re upset you didn’t get to hang out with Mr. Powers in Denver, join the club). The main gist here is that Mitchell doesn’t know how the rumors of him not signing got started, and he at least hints at saying he’ll come to the Hawks soon without actually suggesting when. So fine, let’s say the Hawks will get their wish and Mitchell signs whenever Denver bites it in the postseason (and it had better be this one, because if he stays for a junior year there’s really no reason to not stay for a senior and then he can have his pick).
As we’ve said countless times, the Hawks have big decisions to make. And soon. Jokiharju, Mitchell, and Boqvist are all right-handed and all will not fit on the roster together. One, if not two, are going to have to be used this summer to get the other things the Hawks need.
While Boqvist might be a project, he also promises generational offensive talent from the back end (which to me means he should be up next year pushing the play and you just live with the defensive problems, but we’ve had that talk). Mitchell sounds like a diet version of that, and his uncertain signing status makes moving him tricky. And his value wouldn’t be all that high. You also wouldn’t sign him and then immediately trade him, not that he has any say over that. It’s a bad look and would make future draft picks a little hesitant. Which leaves moving Jokiharju. Which is yet another reason he should be up, unless the Hawks have concluded that will hurt his trade value, which means…great work here.
The Hawks record of moving prospects or younger players for actual value isn’t great. The Teuvo wound won’t ever heal, and you could see where any of these guys are sweeteners to say, get Anisimov’s contract off the books. Danault brought nothing back, and Hinostroza brought back cap space yet to be used. Ryan Hartman got you a lottery ticket in Nicolas Beaudin and an apparently dead EggShell. The Schmaltz deal looks to be the only recent winner.
So while the Hawks have decisions to make, you’ll forgive me if I’m a little tense about the one they make.
