Sam Fels – Page 111 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #76 – Hawks vs. Coyotes: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels March 26, 2019 1180 0

Game #76 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #76 – Hawks vs. Coyotes: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels March 26, 2019 1368 0

Notes: Due to the Pacific Timezone start we didn’t get a chance to glance at the morning skate, but we assume Coach Cool Substitute Teacher will stick with the lines that didn’t work on Sunday but got a win. The prospect of the top line is tantalizing, but there’s not puck-winner, space-opener there. Toews doesn’t do that anymore, and Beto needs to realize that. It also leaves the rest of the lineup without any dash whatsoever. We know Kane on a “third” line looks weird, but the Hawks did win five in a row in that formation…Forsling probably plays, but we can’t bring ourselves to change it all the time or more likely to care when everyone basically sucks…Would be nice if Perlini found it again, and his recent “streak” is just three big games against bad teams…

Notes: Stepan didn’t play last time, and he does make a difference as he’s an actual checking center. Expect him to be on Toews all night…Chychrun didn’t play last time but that doesn’t seem to be carrying over to tonight…Vinne Smalls poured in four goals in the two games after the loss to the Hawks, but hasn’t scored or assisted in the five games since…Kuemper may be having fatigue problems. He wasn’t any good against the Oilers, Lightning, or Panthers. He rebounded against the Devils and Islanders, but there’s no offensive there there…Keller has no goals and two assists in his last eight games…

Game #76 Preview Suite

Baseball

A Cubs Fan’s Lament/Fear

By Sam Fels March 26, 2019 1931 0

I told you we were going to try some new stuff here. Today it begins. My lament as the season draws close.

I had a hope that the approaching of Opening Day, along with watching basically the dress rehearsal against the Red Sox last night, would erase any feelings of bile or mistrust of the Cubs to come. Sadly I’m still searching for that..

If I were to tell you it’s not been the easiest offseason for Cubs fans, I’d have a pretty handy headshot and resume for an audition for the role of Captain Obvious. That would also seriously understate some pretty heavy issues that surround the Cubs, and baseball as a whole, that they encountered and failed to navigate all that well through the winter months.

I’m not going to tell you how to feel about the Cubs and your fandom. Your fandom is yours and yours to do with what you will. I don’t think there are any wrong answers. That’s not to suggest I’m at ease with any of it: Sinclair, Addison Russell, the lack of spending and the reasons/confusion/lies for it. While it seems silly to equate what the Cubs spend on their payroll to serious, all-world issues like domestic abuse and biased/bought media, at the base of it it still does get to labor relations, union rights, and income inequality, and that is an issue in our time.

For me, and I’m not prescribing this for you, I don’t want to be robbed of something I’ve loved my whole life, and has been a big part of my life, by someone I can’t beat through that route anyway. I could turn in my fancard, not buy tickets, burn all the memorabilia and not acquire more, not watch, but the only person who loses anything there is me. And you can say that if more felt like that, owners like Tom Ricketts would feel the pinch. Maybe, but even then he’s still a billionaire (or more accurately, the son of one), and the loss is small if even noticeable. There are other routes to change, and those are the ones I prefer to follow.

But there is one angle I can’t reconcile, which frightens me because it only comes about if the Cubs defy the projections and are the last one left standing come the end of October. And that’s a real possibility and that’s supposed only fill me with excitement and anticipation of the coming season. Which is the whole point of being a fan, or most of it. And it was inspired by a piece on Deadspin by David Roth.

It generated an image inside my head, of the Cubs on the field at Wrigley, having just disposed of the Astros in six tough games (in what you’d have to call an upset, as the Astros lineup is the baseball version of the Infinity Gauntlet). Rob Manfred hands the trophy to Tom Ricketts. And he has this smile that doesn’t say he was right all along, but that he got away with it. You know that smile. You’ve seen it on tons of people who have advantages they didn’t earn and you don’t have, and also think they’re entitled or deserved, or worse, earned them. The smile of the guy you know you’ll never get one over, the one who’ll never lose. The one that says he knew better, when you know for damn sure he never did.

I’ve never thought of Ricketts as a dumb man. I’m not sure he is. I don’t think he’s a baseball genius or anything close. It doesn’t take a deep well of baseball understanding to just go and hire the best guy with the biggest name as an executive to lead your team’s turnaround. I think he probably is a genuine fan, but not as much as he plays up to cover what’s really going on. If he were a real fan, this offseason probably looks different.

I’m sure like me, you haven’t bought RIcketts’s claims that there just isn’t money for the Cubs to spend. It’s there, he just doesn’t want to. Doesn’t think he needs to. And he doesn’t, because the Cubs will be massively profitable no matter what happens on the field this year. Remember, he didn’t take action on his baseball operation until the stadium was half-empty most days. Which, fair enough, I guess.

But until the media asks some serious questions, which they haven’t, and the Ricketts family is forced to show the math on where the money is or where it didn’t come pouring in from that it was supposed to, no Cubs fan is going to take him at face value. You see the sellouts, you see the prices, you see the developments around the park, you know about BAMTECH, the new TV deal, etc. It’s the evidence you have.

And it’s not just the Cubs, of course. This is a baseball-wide problem. Teams aren’t going all out simply because they think there’s a better way or they have to stick to a more efficient way. They’re doing it because they can, because the CBA allows them to, because they’re still going to be profitable no matter their team’s fortunes, because the union can’t do much for another couple years, and even then it’s hard to figure how you break a cabal of billionaires. They’re doing this because they can.

And it is likely that the trophy and confetti and champagne will rain down on someone like Ricketts or Ricketts himself who will get away with it. The Dodgers could have a $300M payroll if they want, and they’re almost certainly the NL favorites. They may find the Yankees or Cleveland when they get there. You could extend this out, because really any team these days can spend what it wants. They didn’t.

On the surface, due to my personal feelings on the city of Boston after living there for three years, another Red Sox championship left my food tasting like dust. But deeper, it’s somewhat righteous. Because the Red Sox didn’t sit out last year’s free agent market and got themselves a J.D. Martinez. They could go even higher, but money didn’t seem to be filthy lucre to them. Sadly, they seemed to have been the only ones.

And it could be the Cubs. A healthy Darvish and a healthy Bryant makes a bigger difference to this team than a lot realize. They only need solid or expected contributions from pretty much everyone else, and maybe one surprise, to be zeroing in on 100 wins. The playoffs can be anything, as we know.

And should it result in the second parade in four seasons, something we couldn’t even conceive of just 10 years ago. Ricketts will be up there about being true to their plan, how they knew all along, that all we had to do was trust their work and the system. That’s what he’ll be selling, at least.

And it will all be horseshit.

They’re on this plan because Ricketts didn’t give Theo and Jed any other choice. Those two didn’t want it this way I’m almost sure of that. They didn’t do this because they had to. They did it because Tom could. And another championship lets him get away with it. To smugly smile at all of us who couldn’t do anything about it, or more likely, forgot about it entirely while being swept up in the season and playoff frenzy. That will be part of the moment I still dream about every day. That’s how they always get away with it. It’s the perfect crime.

I’ve got seven months to figure out how to deal with it, if it comes to that. I may need them all.

Remember to hit those share buttons if you like what you see. They’re gonna take our thumbs!

Everything Else

An Announcement And Then Rocking Tonight

By Sam Fels March 25, 2019 1667 0

Hey all. So I thought we’d talk for a minute. We’re coming up on the end of the season here, and I’ve been thinking about ways to boost what we do around here. As most of you know, or some (I don’t poll our readers, it’s too painful) I write about baseball at various ports. Or I did. But it dawned on me that instead of looking for other people’s playground to play in, I have my own right here that you’re all paying for as it is.

I want to stress that there will be no drop in our Hawks/hockey coverage. That will always come first. When the season ends, we’ll do our player reviews, and set you up for the draft and free agency while covering the playoffs. None of that will change.

In addition though, I’ll be doing Chicago baseball stuff as well. And yes, gonna try and do as much Sox stuff as Cubs stuff. We’ll have series previews for both, and hopefully one or two features for each team during the week. We’ll see how it goes. I just want to boost the amount of stuff here with stuff I enjoy doing.

If things go well, well, maybe one day we’ll be the punk alternative to The Athletic or something. Or we’ll just be whatever the fuck we are, which is hard to identify. Anyway, thanks for coming along for the ride. If we can ask one thing, if you see something here you enjoy, whatever the subject, please hit those share buttons. We’re trying to grow here, and we could use the help.

Anyway, that’s all for now. Let’s go through tonight’s NHL action:

First Screen Viewing

Predators vs. Wild – 7pm

Both are watching their goals kind of slip away for the season. The Preds just got thunked in Winnipeg over the weekend, and are going to find it a tough go to capture the Central. Which means a tooth-pull of a first round against St. Louis. The Wild have slipped out of the wildcard spots thanks to the Hawks’ generosity toward the Avs. Maybe the Preds are going to accept their fate, and make it easy on the Wild. Or maybe the Wild will finally return to their level.

Second Screen Viewing

Bruins vs. Lightning – 6:30

Not much at stake here, and maybe both teams try to keep it hidden until they’re doing this for real in the second round (suck it, Toronto). Still, this is two top teams in the league points-wise, so that’s always worth a look. The Lightning have to run it out to set records, so we’ll see how much that means to them. Maybe some markers being set here.

Other Games

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm

Sabres vs. Devils – 6pm

Penguins vs. Rangers – 6pm

Knights vs. Blues – 7pm

Stars vs. Jets – 7pm

Kings vs. Flames – 8pm

Red Wings vs. Sharks – 9:30

Everything Else

Power Outage

By Sam Fels March 25, 2019 1852 0

It seems awfully simple to say the Hawks have gone as their power play has gone, but that’s basically the drill. It has dried up when it absolutely couldn’t of late, with a marker against Vancouver and last night’s Anisimov deflection the only things to show for the past 11 games. In those 11 game the Hawks are 6-4-1, which isn’t bad. But obviously a couple more power play goals in this stretch and the Hawks probably claim some points they needed to have and might even be in a playoff spot.

You can divide the power play’s season into three segments: From the opening of the season to December 17th, which covers both Quenneville’s short term and Colliton’s start. Then from December 18th to March 1st, when it was absolutely nuclear. And then the last 11 games which go from March 2nd until now, when it’s been cold, cold, cold.

I wanted to check on it metrically, as is my way. So I’m going to take you along with me:

1st Phase: CF/60 – 86.5 SF/60 – 47.5 SCF/60 – 43.1 HDCF/60 – 18.8 SH% – 8.5

2nd Phase (Nuclear): CF/60 – 104.2 SF/60 – 58.0 SCF/60 – 52.5 HDCF/60 – 16.4 SH% – 23.1

3rd Phase (I’m turning into Lovie Smith now): CF/60 – 99.9 SF/60 – 50.6 SCF/60 – 45.5 HDCF/60 – 13.9 SH% – 5.0

So a couple things to glean here. One is that a huge part of the power play’s success was luck. While there was a surge in attempts, shots, and chances in the middle phase where the Hawks couldn’t stop scoring, they also shot nearly three times as well as they did to start the season and almost five times as well as they are now. For a frame of reference, the median SH% on the power play this year is 13.5%, and the Lightning lead the league at 22% for the season. The Hawks were better than that for six weeks, which gives you some idea of the unsustainable nature of it.

Another funny quirk of this is that the Hawks were actually averaging less high-danger chances when they power play went supernova than they did in the first part of the season. What changed is that they doubled their shooting-percentage on just scoring-chances, to almost 30%. Now, when you have Patrick Kane at full bore and Top Cat on the other side, you should be shooting a higher percentage than most. And the Hawks did, just not at a rate anyone was going to keep up.

Still, in the last 11 games, the Hawks have seen a drop in attempts, shots, and chances. And that can’t be totally explained metrically.

One thing we’ve seen of late is that teams are completely aware of the Hawks drop-pass entry, and the Hawks haven’t shown a willingness to try anything else. Opponents are leaving one forward behind the initial puck-carrier, cutting off that drop pass. Because one major change the Hawks made that sparked the power play was actually having two players trailing the initial puck-carrier, when that’s cut off the Hawks are looking at a 3-on-3 at the opposing blue line. And they don’t seem willing to take that on, even though there should be plenty of room. It doesn’t help that the two forwards ahead of the play are just standing and waiting as they’re expecting that drop pass.

So what you’re getting is the initial puck-carrier, sometimes Gustafsson and sometimes Toews for the most part, pulling up somewhere between the red line and blue line, and literally stopping or curling toward the boards or both and waiting for that penalty killer behind them to “clear.” Now everyone’s stopped, and they’re still trying that pass except Kane or DeBrincat has four across the line to stare at with no one on his team moving forward. So entries have become a problem again.

In the zone, the movement has stopped. Some of that might be due to Kane’s overall fatigue, but that doesn’t explain it all. When the power play was humming, Kane was getting the puck while already moving and committing people. He’s standing still and Carmello’ing/Harden’ing (phrasing?) at the circle. Top Cat is waiting on the other side for passes that have become the first priority to be cut off by penalty kills. Toews isn’t bouncing between the goal line and the high slot as much, and when Kane’s doing his isolation offense on the right circle it doesn’t really matter if Toews is in the high slot because he’s basically facing the wrong way. His only option from there is basically to bump it back to Kane, unless he has time to turn to face the center of the ice. Which he rarely does.

It wouldn’t hurt to try and run things occasionally through DeBrincat on the other side, which makes Toews a threat for a one-timer from the high slot and Gustafsson from the blue line and a cross-seam pass to Kane as well. Kane’s not really the best at one-timing shots, but he can make a fist of it enough to have teams account for it. If it moves guys, then the Hawks can get their movement and creativity back.

Everything Else

Atop The Sugar Pile – It Can’t Rain All The Time

By Sam Fels March 25, 2019 1413 0

The Dizzying Highs

Corey Crawford – It could be argued the only thing that matters out of this month, long-term at least, is that Corey Crawford has shown he can still be Corey Crawford. The biggest feeling of dread I’ve had about all of this until now was that Crow just wasn’t ever going to get back to that. Even when he was healthy earlier in the year, he wasn’t very good. Combined with questionable health, and no matter what the plan/process/shit at the wall the Hawks front office was attempting wouldn’t matter because of questions in net. Collin Delia isn’t ready to take over, and if you have to outside the organization for a goalie that’s no better than a 50-50 shot. Seeing Crow keep this team that suddenly can’t score in every game as their defense is still historically bad at least reassures all of us it’s still there. And obviously, no one deserves it more than Crow, who has been through injury hell only to return to a team that can’t protect him and needs immediate miracles in net.

The Terrifying Lows

Beto O’Colliton – It’s not that switching the lines randomly and nonsensically was something we didn’t see from Joel Quenneville. Fuck, a good third of this blog was bitching about it. At least Q’s tinkering, for the most part, came at a time when the Hawks needed a jump. While at first we were curious about Patrick Kane skating on what appeared to be a third line with Anisimov and Kahun, the other two scored and played well. The Hawks won five in a row. Everyone was chipping in. Then after one bad period, Coach Cool Youth Pastor has must made it up in ways that don’t work. The Hawks have five goals in regulation, and three are from forwards. One was on a power play, While in theory just amassing talent at the top should work, it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of what Kane and Toews are now and what makes them click. Drake Caggiula isn’t anything more than a foot soldier, but he does the work necessary. So does Saad. Robbing Strome of Top Cat doesn’t provide that line a threat anyone has to account for, no matter how much work Saad is doing these days. It’s not the sole reason or even biggest the Hawks stubbed their toes at the most critical juncture of the season, but it is a big reason why. We wanted the last portion of the season to showcase some reason to believe that Colliton has a unique view or hope for the future. We’re still waiting.

The Creamy Middles

Erik Gustafsson – Goals in three straight games probably means he should be at the top, but Gus scoring from the blue line is just kind of the norm now. No, he doesn’t have a clue defensively, but in the future if he’s allowed to outscore his problems from a third pairing, no one will care at all. And at the end of the day, no matter the problems, he’s entertaining. He does make things happen, and along with Kane and Top Cat and maybe Toews on occasion, he can conjure a chance out of nothing. That’s worth having.

Everything Else

Game #74 and #75 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Preview/Ship Christening: A Final Lunge

By Sam Fels March 23, 2019 1558 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 32-31-10 Avalanche 33-29-12

PUCK DROP(S): 2pm Saturday, 7pm Sunday

TV: NBCSN Chicago Saturday, NBCSN Sunday

BUCKWHEATS, ALL OF ‘EM: Mile High Hockey

“It’s come to this,” is a cliche, but that’s where the Hawks are. They have three games over four days to rescue whatever barely flickering light might be there for their playoff chase. Or any meaning for their season. Quite simply, the Hawks have to take all three of these–two against Colorado, one against Arizona–and they have to do it in regulation. The part that gives you pause, of course, is that every game the Hawks have had where they had a chance to really turn the season into something, they’ve stepped on a rake. At home to these Avalanche, at home to the Stars, at home to the Canucks, and last out against the Flyers. And maybe they got goalie’d in one or two, but they’ve lost the right to get goalie’d with all the points they’ve pissed away in truly bewildering and comedic fashion earlier in the season.

Good thing they’ll be seeing a goalie who’s carrying a .967 SV% in March, then.

The Avs sit four points ahead of the Hawks, and were in the last wildcard spot until Minnesota won last night, having played a game more. They’ve won three in a row, including two wins over fellow wildcard chasers Dallas and Minnesota. They had lost five of seven before that, which is why they’re in this mess. A few more wins and they may get themselves out of it. And if Phillip Grubauer keeps this up, they’ll get them.

The last time the Hawks saw the Avs at the end of February, Grubauer has watched a chance to grab the starter’s role pass over his shoulder and into the Avs’ net. It was Varlamov who stoned the Hawks that night, and it looked like the Avs plan to pass the crease from Varly to Grubauer and letting the former walk off in the summer had fallen to pieces (somebody put me together). It looked as if the Avs were at a crossroads in net, which is the last place you want one.

Grubauer got another chance a few days after, and so far he’s taken it and run with it. In his seven starts since that time, he’s given up six goals. They’ve needed it, because their forwards are starting to drop like flies. Mikko Rantanen is questionable for the weekend. Gabriel Landeskog is out until the Avs make the playoffs and maybe not even then. Matt Nieto, a reliable foot soldier, might be done for the year as well. Vladislav Kemenev has been a long-term casualty.

Which means the Avs offense is basically what Nathan MacKinnon can come up with. He’s doing just about what he can, with 10 points in his last 10 and 20 in his last 24. Carl Soderberg chips in where he can, with 22 goals. But other than that, the Avs are still a group of a lot of guys who have a little. They have a bunch of 10-goal scorers when they need 15- or 20-goal ones. Maybe Tyson Jost or J.T. Compher become that one day, but they’re not there yet.

So it’s Grubauer, it’s MacKinnon, and it’s ride or die for the Avs. Which makes the task simple in statement for the Hawks, if not action. Keep MacKinnon from going off for three or four points, and you have a real good chance. Coach Cool Youth Pastor might have to get cute and switch out lines on the fly, whether he wants Toews or Kampf dealing with MacKinnon. Or if he wants Murphy and Dahlstrom out on the back end. He might have to work to get those matchups, if that’s something he wants, on the road. It should be easier at home, but MacKinnon did whatever he wanted his last visit here.

The Hawks have won both games in Denver this year, one in overtime. Both were Collin Delia magic tricks, so the Hawks might need that from Corey Crawford. Beto O’Colliton has hinted that Crawford might take both starts, which seems a risk but these are desperate times. Whatever plays are left in the playbook have to be pulled out now.

It would be encouraging to see the Hawks actually step forth in a game with something at stake. Just to know their coach is up for it, and that players who are doing it for the first time have it in them. None of that has been shown yet. And the Hawks are going to have to get it from a new source for these three games, or likely will, because Patrick Kane appears to be getting awfully tired. He can’t keep pulling out a rabbit. Insert your “white rabbit” jokes here.

Come Tuesday night, it could all be officially done. Or maybe this empty calorie fun continues a little longer. Strap on in.

Game #74 and #75 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #74 and #75 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Spotlight: Tyson Barrie Is Better Than You Think, And Is About To Be Replaced

By Sam Fels March 23, 2019 1465 0

Tyson Barrie is a name we’ve tossed around the FFUD lab for years. It didn’t hurt, or help him, that the Avs seemingly could never warm up to him. He was definitely on the trade-block a few years ago, primarily because he wouldn’t commit axe-murder on the ice like Patrick Roy required of his defensemen. A right-handed, puck-moving d-man is something the Hawks have been crying out for for years, and kind of necessitated the drafting of both Adam Boqvist and Ian Mitchell. It’s no coincidence that the Avs extended Barrie the same offseason they told Roy to do one, realizing what they had and what was ruining it. Always best to choose a talented d-man over a loudmouth dope, at least in our minds.

Barrie has paid the Avs back and then some. His 109 points from the back end the past two years ranks him sixth among all defensemen, ahead of names like Roman Josi, Mark Giordano, and John Klingberg. The only ones ahead of him are Brent Burns, John Carlson, Morgan Rielly, Victor Hedman, and Keith Yandle, He walks among the best.

Barrie has of late also been metrically affluent, as he’s carrying the play in terms of expected goals and Corsi. And his rates are far above the team-rates. Yes, Barrie has spent most of his time behind the Troika Of The Apocalypse in Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen. But someone has to get them the puck, and their metrics take a heavy drop when Barrie isn’t back there (also dragging around Ian Cole, baybay!). All three of those forwards see their Corsi, scoring chance, and high-danger chance rates drop 4-7 points when Barrie isn’t out there with him. He’s an engine.

Which puts the Avs in something of a curious spot.

You may not know, but there’s something pretty sparkly about to hit Denver. Its name is Cale Makar. He’s currently lighting up Hockey East for UMass, the #3 team in the nation, with 46 points in 36 games as a d-man. Hockey East being just about the realest-ass conference there is, and Makar merely being a sophomore, you can pretty much bank on him being the realness. And like Barrie, he’s right-handed. Makar may even join the Avs for the playoffs, if they make it and he doesn’t take UMass all the way to the Frozen Four.

Ideally, next season Barrie would be used to shelter Makar, leaving the latter to simply fistfuck second and third lines from a second pairing. And perhaps that is the plan. Where that gets rough is that Barrie will also be in the last year of his deal. Should he put up another 50-60 points, and there’s no reason he won’t other than health, he’ll be hitting unrestricted free agency at a still springy 29. Perhaps good for the Avs is that if you look ahead, the summer of 2020 could be loaded when it comes to free agent defensemen. At the moment, Alex Pietrangelo, Justin Schultz, Barrie, Torey Krug, Jared Spurgeon, and Justin Faulk are currently slated to be on the market then. Obviously, not all will get there. But Barrie can easily ask for $7M-$8M with another like the last two have been.

So if you’re Joe Sakic, do you keep Barrie around to be the Makar-Whisperer, and then quite possibly lose him for nothing? Do you try and cash in this summer and hope Makar is ready for it all next year (which he might be)? Do you extend Barrie at 29? The Avs can probably afford to so thanks to MacKinnon’s simply laughably team-friendly deal. And that’s with Rantanen pulling in whatever he gets this summer as an RFA.

Should the Avs go that route, they could look awfully scary next year with Barrie and Makar driving the bus, that top line, and hopefully a step forward from literally any of their other kids, as well as the addition of Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko, thanks to the Senators paint-huffing style of management. If the Jets and Predators want to know where their likely challenger is coming from in the Central, it probably should look to the mountains.

Game #74 and #75 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #74 and #75 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Q&A: Once More Unto The Breach…

By Sam Fels March 23, 2019 1419 0

For the final time this year, we pick up our torch, arm ourselves, and head into the depths where Anthrax Jones lives.

Look, ain’t no one complaining about 87 points. But your large adult son Mikko Rantanen‘s pace did drop off in February and March from the ridiculous pace he was on. Anything to be read from that or just flattening out of luck a bit?

On a team as deep as a puddle in the Sahara Desert, I’m not sure it wasn’t just a matter of time before other teams threw their entire checking efforts at MacRanteskog. The Avs have ten players with at least 10 goals apiece, so the “LACK OF DEPTH, HUH” crowd has an argument, but that argument falls apart when you consider that five of the ten have either 10 or 11 goals, and none of Colin Wilson‘s 10 count anyway. It’s not the 1983 Islanders, kids. It also doesn’t help that Rantanen has spent 54 minutes in the box almost entirely due to careless stick fouls, including a punishing late-game high sticking penalty last Friday that cost the Avs at least one point to human sewage drain Corey Perry and the corpse of the Ducks.

*deep breath*

That said, Rantanen’s game is still maturing, and it’s very evident that he still hasn’t put it all together yet. When he does, you’re going to need to spend two weeks training in Siberia with “Hearts On Fire” playing on continuous loop in order to shut him down. We’re getting there.

On the other side of the coin, Phillip Grubauer is on a real heater in March. Is this enough for the Avs to feel comfortable letting Varlamov walk in the summer and giving the job to Grubs?

I think the plan all along was to let Varlamov go at the end of this season, whether Grubauer came around or not. I think Jared Bednar is playing this perfectly: Grubauer is the short-term future of the Colorado net, with a chance to become the long-term future, and he should be getting the majority of the carries down the stretch in what’s still really a “practice year” for this generation of Avs. Grubauer has shown he has the ability to carry a team for stretches in Washington and now Colorado, which is essentially the same playbook Varlamov followed. The potential difference for Grubauer will be whether or not Bednar is able to build a coherent system around him, and the jury remains out on that one.

We asked you about him last year, but it still feels like the Avs are tapping their foot and looking at their watch when it comes to Tyson Jost…

By March of 2021, I could see myself looking at a stat line of 10 goals and 20 assists for Jost and be willing to admit yeah, this is just the player he is. I’m not there yet though, because every time I’m ready to accept that he’s probably not going to break out in any meaningful way, he shows me something good that lures me back in. The Avs sent him to the AHL over All Star break, and when he came back, he was a different player: more assertive, less tentative, and it made a visible difference in his overall game. My biggest concern with Jost isn’t his skill level or his hockey IQ, it’s the way he seems to struggle with the physical aspect of the game. At 5’11” 190, hes not the smallest player, but he seems vulnerable to guys who play him hard. He’s not shy about contact, but he more often than not finds himself on his ass when he engages. That’s not something that can be coached or taught, and maybe it’s something he can work on during summer training, but maybe it’s just not in his makeup.

Are they getting in? Does it really matter? What’s the way forward here?

It doesn’t really matter. If they make it, great! That’s more playoff experience for guys like Rantanen, Jost, Sam Girard, and Illinois legend JT Compher, guys who got a taste of it last season and seemed to improve as the Nashville series progressed. Plus, it would be our first chance to see Rockstar Makar in an Avs uniform, and it would be cool to see how he performs under an immediate spotlight.

If they don’t make it? Another potential high pick to add to Ottawa’s pick, which is absolutely going to turn into Jack Hughes or Kappo Kakko because god hates Ottawa’s fans and loves dark comedy. I’ve kept a level head this season, whether it was the early hot streak or the mid-season slumpmother, because the target all along has been 2019-2020.

And if we’re still in this position at this time next season, your boy is gonna be having a cow.

Game #74 and #75 Preview Suite