Game #50 Preview Suite
Notes: Ovie has four goals in his last 15 games…it’s been a rough go for Niskanen and Orlov, who take the toughest assignments but aren’t doing nearly as well with them as they did last year. Those Cup runs sure do take a bite, don’t they?…Kuznetsov has one goal since December 2nd….Oshie has three goals in his last 11. Starting to see how the goddamn Islanders caught them…Wilson is shooting over 21%, in case you made the mistake of thinking he turned into a real player or something. Correction is coming for him…
Notes: Stop trying to make Caggiula happen. It’s not gonna happen…Looks from practice yesterday that Jokiharju will take a seat. He had a rough one in New York, but pairing him with Seabrook on his off-side certainly wasn’t doing him any favors. If Koekkoek was anything the Lightning sure could have used him on what is a underwhelming blue line behind Hedman…Saad had played well the past two games on the top six, so of course he gets demoted to a checking line for Caligula and Kahun…Perlini looks to be taking a seat too for Kunitz, because the world is fucked…
Game #50 Preview Suite
You knew it was going to happen. From the second the Hawks traded Michal Kempny for a conditional third-round pick from Washington (which in an annoyingly roundabout way turned into Niklas Nordgren, who might be a scoring threat in 2021), he was destined to play a noticeable role in getting Washington its Cup. You’ll remember three of his five playoff points (one goal, two assists) coming when the lights shined brightest as we all pondered how often he must have “run over” Q’s “dog” to have himself relegated to a position in which trading him for a pick that won’t matter until people stop caring about the Hawks again seemed appealing. But you’ve read this crown of sonnets before, so what’s he doing now?
Since departing, Kempny has had two things break his way. First, he’s simply getting more playing time, primarily because he hasn’t been the Lionel Hutz to Todd Reirden’s (and Barry Trotz’s before him) Judge Snyder. Through 17 games this year, Kempny is averaging well over 18 minutes of ice time, by far the most of his career. Second, he’s played a good chunk of his time with John Carlson instead of whichever one-legged vagrant Q demanded he drag around in the three-legged race Ulf Samuelsson and his hairpiece called a defensive strategy in his time with the Hawks.
Over the past few games, though, Kempny has found himself away from Carlson, instead pairing with Matt Niskanen and taking more dungeon shifts than just about anyone expected. In the last four games in which they’ve spent most of their time together, they’ve started in the oZ 25%, 80%, 25%, and 0%, respectively. This weirdness seems like a consequence of the Caps’s hot and cold start to the year. It makes some sense, since dungeon starts have been Niskanen’s MO since he got to Washington and Kempny has always shown a penchant for possession. In theory, it should work.
Perhaps most interesting about Kempny’s rebirth in Washington is how he’s been used since arriving. Over his last five games, Kempny has played at least one minute and as much as 5:55 (against Arizona) on the PK, which was rare in his time in Chicago. Both Trotz and Reirden have tended to use Kempny more often in the defensive zone. In Kempny’s 31 games with the Hawks last year, he started in the offensive zone at an enviable 54+% rate. Upon arrival in Washington, those starts plummeted to around 43% over 22 games, which has continued into this year. And though that put a dent in his CF% (from 53+ to 47+), his high-danger-scoring-chances-for percentage stayed at a constant 52% after the trade, bolstering the argument that when Kempny was on the ice, scoring chances tended to crop up more often than not.
But for all the kisses we’ve blown Kempny’s way, there’s been the nagging fear that last year’s performance was more a dead cat bounce than a sign of tapped potential. And early on, you can use the primary stats to pad that fear. He’s got no goals and just three assists (one of which came in 3-on-3, so who fucking cares?) in 17 games. Though Kempny’s never really lit up the stat sheet, you wouldn’t be off in expecting a few more points from him having played a decent amount of time with Carlson and behind the Alex Ovechkin line. He’s also got 16 PIM early on, good for third on the team behind Evgeny Kuznetsov and Lars Eller. Though Kempny’s always had more snarl than his Werewolf of London hairdo would suggest, the 77 PIM pace doesn’t really bode well for a guy whose appeal lies in his puck possession abilities.
Still, when you look at the peripherals, it’s hard not to ask “What if?” A 50.3+ CF% despite starting in the oZ just 46.4% of the time is strong, especially since that’s never been how Kempny’s been used until now. His 2.1 CF% Rel trails only Christian Djoos and Carlson for Caps D-men, and they start in the oZ at respective 57+% and 54+% rates. And there’s still time for him to find his stroke, especially if he’s still shaking off rust from the concussion Robert “Big Pussy” Bortuzzo doled out in his efforts to elbow his way to the last slice of gabagool earlier in the year. At the very least, it’s safe to say that Kempny’s four-year, $2.5 million per against the cap and ability to skate and puck-handle without circumcising himself would look a lot better than Brandon “It’s the Zone-Defense Scheme’s Fault I Suck” Manning’s albatross (and given how bad he’s been, even two years at $2.5 million per is an albatross) any day of the week.
All of our eyes will be on Kempny in a sweater he wants to wear, wondering why he never got the shot we’d all love to see now.
Game #22 Preview Suite
RussianMachineNeverBreaks.com has been a quality Caps outlet for as long as we’ve been doing this. Follow them @RussianMachine.
It’s odd for a Cup-winning team to lose its coach. What really happened with Barry Trotz and has it made any difference so far this year?
There’s probably less to the story of Trotz’s exit than meets the eye. Trotz’s contract was up at the end of last season, but he had a provision that would have extended him with a modest raise if he won the Cup. Trotz felt he deserved more than a modest raise, and the Caps felt they should not commit upwards of $20 million on a coach that would likely be fired before full term. Trotz had come very close to a firing this time last year, and Todd Reirden had been groomed to take over for a couple years now. It was an awkward split, but this is sort of the way it had to go.
The team is mostly the same, but they’re having massive trouble with team defense, especially on the PK. New AC Reid Cashman is reportedly in charge of the defense, and they’re certainly struggling so far.
Much like last year, Braden Holtby can’t seem to stop a sloth. He struggled last season, and then was excellent in the playoffs. What’s the deal here?
We think Holtby’s doing okay, but “okay” is sub par for Holtby. Instead of saving around 93% during 5v5 play, he’s barely saving above what we’d expect given his workload — and that’s the rub. Holtby’s job has gotten much harder in the last year: more shots and more of them from close up. The team needs to do slightly better for him, and then I suspect Holtby will climb back up to that 93% range.
Feel free to go ahead and taunt us about Michal Kempny. We’ve lost all feeling anyway.
Kempny literally saved the Caps season. He replaced Madison Bowey in February and immediately transformed the blue line. He seemed just as happy about the change of scenery as we were. Flat out: the Caps could not have won the Cup without him. Thank you for sharing.
Actually, Kempny got a concussion in the preseason and hasn’t quite been on the ball yet this year. I hope he’ll get back to it soon.
With the defense this team still has, why do their metrics underwhelm?
A bunch of factors, but here are a few: they stink without the puck. They are way too passive on the forecheck, which leaves the potential of dangerous floaters like Ovechkin and Kuznetsov unexploited. Orlov and Niskanen seem to be having down years, and depth forward Andre Burakovsky can’t seem to get his scoring touch back after an injury-riddled season. Still, I expect the Caps to outscore their shot-attempt stats by a fair bit just on the strength of their shooting talent.
If the Caps went 0-82, would anyone around there really care?
In the words of JP at Japers Rink,
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Game #22 Preview Suite
There’s nothing we can say about Tom Wilson that we haven’t already. So let’s stick with the current problem.
Here’s the thing about this galactic dumbass. When he cleared out Oscar Sundqvist of the Blues in the preseason, one has to wonder what he was trying to accomplish. Wilson is no longer some knuckle-dragging grunt who is desperate to make an NHL roster. He should be, and probably even below that, but he’s not. His role on the Caps is well carved out. So there was nothing to be gained from turning into a meteor in a preseason game other than hurting someone. It certainly wasn’t for “the win.”
So either Wilson pathologically needs to hurt people, or he’s incapable of turning it off, even in the preseason. Neither is acceptable. Doubling down on this, Wilson obviously refuses to see what he did wrong and never has. So you can be sure this will happen again.
What’s galling on top of that is that the NHLPA seems to forget who it represents at all times. There’s this automatic trigger that they have to appeal every suspension and defend every player who get disciplined by the league. But the union also represents Sundqvist. And it represents every other player that Wilson has tried to paralyze or will try to maim in the future. There’s a greater good here.
Wilson simply makes it dangerous for everyone else to perform their job. While all NHL players accept that there’s a danger inherent to the job, what they don’t accept is someone acting outside the boundaries either because he’s a loon, an incomprehensible moron, or both. That’s not what they signed up for, and if you asked most of them off the record they’d probably tell you they’d like to see Wilson taken out behind the woodshed by the union’s leadership.
There is no other sport, or even industry, that would accept an employee running around putting the very livelihoods of their coworkers in jeopardy. Even football doesn’t really accept this kind of horseshit, or at least is getting there. At least football knows where its money is made.
Hockey can’t seem to get that right. Wilson’s original quarter-season suspension seemed like a start, but of course the union found their friendly arbitrator and got it reduced by almost half. And the lesson for Wilson is that he’ll always have someone to fight for him and he doesn’t have to correct anything.
The union should be fighting for all the members who are in danger thanks to this abomination of a player. Maybe they’ll get around to it when he does actually end a career, which he seems intent on doing.
Game #22 Preview Suite
Call me a sucker for these moments.
I’ve certainly had my issues with the Washington Capitals. I’ve definitely reveled in their failures along with everyone else, spiced with a tinge of frustration with them for not making good on the promise of so many teams in the past (don’t tell me Caps-Hawks in ’10 wouldn’t have been a much better series than the Flyers, not that I care now). Tom Wilson’s presence. Timothy Leif, though if Oshie had become a Hawk once upon a time he’d be one of our favorites I’m sure. Bruce Boudreau. Barry Trotz at times. They’ve been far from the most annoying team in the world, and if you’re a hockey fan for just two to three years or so you’ll be annoyed by every team that isn’t yours.
But I don’t know how you didn’t smile watching Alex Ovechkin last night. Sure, it’s not like any professional athlete will “suffer” when they don’t win a championship, given the perks that come along with it. And yet this is what they’ve been trained and drafted and deployed to do their whole lives. It’s been their raison d’etre, and if it’s not they can expect a torrent of horseshit thrown their way (for evidence, check out Pat Boyle calling out Jonathan Toews on his podcast/propaganda).
And especially when it’s Ovie, who’s basically had to eat all the shit for the Caps for 13 years without ever balking. Writers looking for an easy scapegoat, who wouldn’t dare call him a choker or accuse him of not caring if he came from Swift Current. Coaches trying to cover their own incompetence by laying it as his feet. Caps fans will deny it now but there were a fair few calling for him to be traded after whatever playoff failure you want to choose. The constant comparisons to Sidney Crosby.
And Ovie had to swallow all of that Caps-Pens bullshit, even though most of it came well before he was even thought of as a prospect. Ovie’s Caps and Sid’s Pens have only met in the playoffs four times. And one of those was 10 years ago. Does it even count? The Caps-Pens “thing” is basically only slightly more of a “thing” than Hawks-Canucks or Hawks-Wild. Fuck, the Hawks and Predators almost have the same recent playoff history. And yet Ovie and the Caps had to choke it all down because the Pens went on to win a Cup each time after beating them, which doesn’t really have much to do with them, does it?
You see Ovechkin last night, quite simply the greatest scorer the game has ever seen, and what it meant to him. Or those fans who flooded Chinatown and elsewhere last night in DC (wishing Chicago might have found a gathering space for the Hawks once, but oh well. I wouldn’t have been there anyway, because I needed to be punching Killion at the bar). You can’t help but smile. It’s been a good hockey town, whatever you think of it. And you see them do it for the first time, and just maybe you remember what it was like the first time for you. It’s always good to be reminded why you bother with this in the first place.
I saw a lot about how this clearly isn’t the best team and how this is how the NHL works. And maybe it is. At this point, we know the regular season standings don’t tell a complete story. I think you take the teams that have 105 points or more and you basically throw them in a “top group” and they’re all the same. The Caps won a division that produced five playoff teams. They clearly don’t suck.
Matt had it right yesterday, that when you get to this stage, it’s usually the chalk. You may say this team or that team wasn’t the best one, but there hasn’t been a Cup winner in a very long time that came from nowhere. They’re almost always among that “top group.” You can get some weirdos in the Final, and then the team with more future Hall of Famers wins. The Caps have at least two in Ovechkin and Backstrom, and Kuznetsov could be one day if he maintains this level. It’s not that hard.
I wonder where Ovie goes from here. After Sid won his first he had his first 50-goal season the next out, seemingly freed of what had been expected and placed on him since he was a teenager. Does Ovechkin have anther 50 or 60-goal season in him? I wouldn’t ever doubt him.
It’s funny, because most of this playoff run, this Caps team has been somewhat derided as “not a vintage Caps team.” And yet if one of the previous two that were better than this, had just gotten a bounce or two here or there against the Penguins, and won a Cup before this, we’d say this version did it on know-how and confidence, much like the ’15 Hawks. It’s still the same core, they just got a little more luck, a little more goaltending, and there it is. Looking back at our local outfit, Game 7 OT in ’13 could have gone any direction. The Bruins were a post away from going up 3-0. Two multi-OT games against Nashville in ’15 would have swung that series, or Pekka Rinne not drinking a bathtub of cough syrup before every game would have. And then what would the narrative be?
It’s why talk of “windows” is hardly the whole discussion. There isn’t really more the Caps could have done to now be a multi-Cup winner, a save here or there or a deflection here or there. I guess that’s the magic of it all. Teams can only put themselves in position, but after that so much of it is out of their hands. It’s fascinating theater and torturous following.
Good for Ovie. Good for Trotz, who coached his ass off this spring. Holtby too. It’s a good ending. Maybe not the best. But good.
Anyway, Vegas Eulogy Monday.
And now we’re on the brink, though everyone already writing the tributes to the Capitals might want to check their history when leading a series 3-1. Even this grouping, for the most part, was around when they blew one of these to the Rangers three years ago in one off those Caps-Rags series we’ve all tried to burn from our collective memories. So yeah, if you love history and gremlins and such, you know this one isn’t over.
As the Caps were laying the wood to the Knights last night, there were far too many top-of-the-profession writers remarking on how the “magic” had run out for the Knights. They’re either willfully trying to push an angle that doesn’t exist, or they’re collectively stupid. Or both, I suppose.
If you watched the last round for the Knights Who Say Nee, even though it ended in five games it was hardly a dominating effort. The Jets ran the show for long stretch of that series, and yet kept running up against a very toothy wall in Marc-Andre Fleury. .950. There’s nothing else to say. There’s no planning or method to defeat a goalie who is throwing a .950 at you. If you can’t really conceive of that, just know with a goalie playing that well it takes 40 shots to find two goals, and even if your goalie is paying really well the other team can probably find two bounces off something for two of their own. At the very worst, Vegas was always gaining a shot at a coin-flip. This is the sport, really.
.845
That’s Fleury’s SV% in this series. And sure, it’s not like the Capitals are just a bunch of escaped wildebeests that got loose or something. Kuznetsov, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie, Carlson, with help from Eller and his ilk, there’s a lot of talent here even if they lost some from previous seasons. But .845 is .845, and you’re going to lose when that happens. The Knights are losing, plain and simple.
Mostly, if you go by the underlying info, the Knights and Caps have been pretty much even, with the Knights just shading it. Some of that is they’ve been chasing the game more than any other series, but the fact that they’re chasing the game is down to Fleury suddenly turning into Tigger as much as anything else. This is still a team that’s basically one line, whatever inflated narrative Eddie and Pierre want to make about Reaves and Nosek on the 4th line, and it’s not really built to come from behind.
Sure, the Caps are fast enough to try and attack the defense of the Knights, which is not gifted with the puck other than Schmidt (and Engelland is AWFUL and the Caps have finally showed that). But the Jets did too, they just didn’t have an answer for the final boss in the crease. He’s basically provided the Caps a cheat code.
-While it’s been easy to discuss how the Knights are made up of players nobody else wanted (which isn’t totally true, I’m sure the Pens would have loved to keep Fleury as a backup, except you don’t pay backups $6 million and Fleury wouldn’t want to be that anyway. James Neal, Schmidt, Theodore, one or two others are players that those teams would have loved to keep but thanks to the expansion and cap rules, they simply couldn’t), the Caps have their fair share of weird pickups.
Oshie was acquired for Troy Brouwer (a deal I actually liked for the Blues at the time, and now Troy Brouwer has turned into a Jalopy). Michal Kempny…well, let’s not do this again. Lars Eller was discarded by two teams who didn’t appreciate him for Jaro Halak and and two 2nd round picks. As strange as it sounds for a 1st round pick, Kuznetsov actually slipped farther than he should have because teams knew he wouldn’t come over from the KHL for a few seasons. Matt Niskanen was allowed to walk from Pittsburgh.
It’s not just the Knights who can profit off the idiocy of others.
-What the Knights also can do like every other team is act like a bunch of asshats when they’re getting their dicks handed to them on the scoreboard. There’s Ryan Reaves doing Reaves things because his team is fucked for the night, which proves exactly nothing.
While Gerard Gallant is going to walk with the Coach Of The Year award, and he should, keep in mind he couldn’t keep his team wrangled in last night when the contest was over and they ended up losing without any class (and don’t fool yourself, there is not such thing as “message sending.” It’s just childish, bad losing). He’s also the coach who in two straight games when his team needed a goal and his net empty put Reaves out as his extra skater because he somehow doofus’d his way into two goals in two games (one a penalty). Even the best at the moment are prone to moments of completely, blithering stupidity.
For most of the past few years, one of the main discussions in the game and outside of it is how to improve scoring. And we here have tried to point out that scoring isn’t the problem, action might be. There have been half-hearted attempts to try and open the game, but mostly it’s to increase power plays which will increase goals, and the hope is that the even-strength game will then open up out of fear of the power plays. It’s never quite worked, though scoring was up a tick this year.
Game 1 of this Final was used as proof that lots of goals means lots of excitement and that this is what the game should be aiming for. As I said after Game 1, I’ll go for this fractured, frantic contest every day ahead of a 2-1 truck-pulling-a-stump-fest. That doesn’t mean I need every game to be 6-4. In fact, I would prefer 6-4 to still be the rarity, so that we can enjoy them every time instead of just getting accustomed to it and it becoming lacrosse.
Last night was proof that you can still have the speed and the raucous pace that doesn’t lend itself to intricate passing or build and all the excitement that comes with it and have the goalies be a part of it, too. Big saves, like Holtby’s with less than two minutes to go but Fleury has a few himself, are just as exciting as goals sometimes. It’s a big moment. It’s a game-changing moment. Games pivot on these just as much as they can goals. Hockey doesn’t need goals, goals, goals. When it’s open like these two games have been, it gets goals but it also gets these goalies doing amazing things, too.
In essence, hockey has something of a similar problem that baseball has at the moment. They have these great athletes at the goalie position, but they don’t get to do enough to show it thanks to defensive systems that are meant to stop pucks from ever getting to them to stop. To choke off space so that shots aren’t even attempted. Goalies now are just reacting to angles and cutting off the lower part of the net. A lot of their saves are on shots they never really saw. Much like in baseball, you have athletes all over the field but you don’t get to see them make plays much because everyone is striking out or hitting homers.
We really can see what these goalies can do when they have to stare down open shooters or have to deal with passes across the slot and such. And that’s fun too! When Carlson gets to let loose freely from the top of the circle and Fleury is coming out to meet him, that’s as close to an Old-West gun-fight as you’re going to get in sports. It’s unique to hockey, because we don’t know the result. Sure, LeBron can roll to the hoop and be met by a defender, but whichever way that goes it’s one basket. If you’re one-on-one with a goalie in soccer, you’d better fucking score.
Hockey needs to find a way to get more of those moments per game. What are you going to remember more, any of the goals from Game 1 or Holtby’s save from Game 2?
-As for the game itself, the Caps seemed to weather the storm and then got the better of the middle 30 minutes or so by letting Carlson, Orlov, and Niskanen just skate past the forecheckers of the Knights. It’s a risk if you can’t get away from them, but trying to complete any pass under that sort of pressure is a bigger one. When any of them beat the first guy and caught the second forechecker going the wrong way, suddenly they had a plethora of space and odd-man rushes with possession. The Caps made plenty off that, then pushing the three back for Vegas, or just the defense, back off their line and then making plays just inside the Vegas line. Orpik’s goal came from that, because once they beat the forecheck and just kept going the backtracking forwards weren’t there.
Fleury didn’t cover himself in glory, as he was by the slots at the Mirage for Eller’s goal, way overplaying Kempny who had a man half on him. The other two goals he’s not going to do much about, but this is what happens with Fleury. When he’s really feeling himself he gets way aggressive, because he’s still one of the more athletic goalies around. But it’s a very fine line, and once he goes over the edge on it he can look very flappy/swimmy/sprawly. If he doesn’t get on the other side of that line, the Knights are going to be up against it.
