J.R. Lind is always our Preds guy. Follow him on Twitter @JRLind.
Game #46 Preview Suite
J.R. Lind is always our Preds guy. Follow him on Twitter @JRLind.
Game #46 Preview Suite
This one’s on us. We didn’t give our Nashville friends enough time for this, so we’ll just rerun what we did with JR Lind a couple weeks ago when the Hawks were in Nashville. We’ll make it up to you.
Game #36 Preview Suite
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 9-12-5 Predators 17-8-1
PUCK DROP: 7pm
TV: WGN
KISS MY GRITS: On The Forecheck
There’s no such thing as sympathy in the NHL, so even if you’re getting your dick knocked in the dirt night after night, the next team on the docket is going to be real excited to repeat the punishment. So it is for the Hawks, who head from one division favorite to another and the one actually on top, the Nashville Predators. And even in their beat-up state, you fear how quickly it could get out of hand if the Hawks don’t straighten the fuck up. So, cheerful, eh?
Let’s start with the Hawks. Henri Jokiharju will return after an illness, and looks to be paired with Duncan Keith again. The Keith-Forsling Axis Of What The Fuck? never really worked, though it didn’t work for the same reasons that the Keith-HarJu pairing has struggled at times. Both players are inclined to be aggressive and get up the ice, and only one is supposed to play that way. The HarJu is more defensively inclined than Forsling though, and overall this pairing has done ok this season. So it’s good and proper to have it back. But you can look forward to more tweets from us about Keith having to change his game when he gets caught outside the circles again.
That slots Forsling down with Gustafsson in what can only be called “adventure time,” and Brandon Manning and Brent Seabrook are paired in what can only be called “fuck my life.”
Cam Ward looks to be the starter, which is fine because Crawford hasn’t been all that good and could use the extra day. The lines are going to pretty much stay the same, with Dylan Strome at least starting between Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. Jeremy Colliton went away from it in the 3rd against the Jets but will give it another go. To maximize what they do well and to eliminate as much of what they don’t as possible, they really should only start exclusively in the offensive zone. Toews’s and Kampf’s line can do the defensive starts if need be, and you don’t want any of Kane, Top Cat, or Strome there either.
Right, the Predators. The headline, other than their marvelous and expected record, is that a good portion of their team is on a trainer’s table. Kyle Turris, Viktor Arvidsson, and PK Subban all will miss out tonight, and Arvidsson is a long-term casualty. It’s put a dent in their mojo, as they’ve lost three of the last four, including getting capsized at home by the Coyotes and getting trounced by the Blues. So if there was ever a time to catch the Preds, it would be now. If the Hawks were anything resembling a coherent outfit, that is.
If there’s a bone to pick with Nashville, is that they can look a touch short on scoring. With Arvidsson out, Filip Forsberg is the only player with more than eight goals in the lineup. Ryan Johansen has gone back to “Treat Boy” status, and Ryan Hartman isn’t going to continue to shoot the lights out forever. Subban was chipping in a bit from the back, points-wise at least, but he’s out now too.
Another quirk of the Preds is that their power play is just as bad as the Hawks’ somehow. It won’t get any better with Subban out, but then again there isn’t a power play that the Hawks’ kill can’t cure.
Given how the Hawks play defense, there’s no reason to think that Peter Laviolette won’t turn the Preds up to 11 and pressure them all over the ice. The Hawks simply can’t match their speed, though they played them pretty tough last year, going 2-2-0. Still, if the Hawks can find their way past what will be a furious forecheck (they can’t), they can get some rushes and chances in the open ice behind it.
Of course, waiting there is Pekka Rinne, coming off collecting his first Vezina and dead-set on getting a second. He’s your clubhouse leader, as he leads the league in GAA, SV%, even-strength SV%, and difference between his expected save-percentage and his actual. He’s simply been brilliant, so you can have a great game and still lose because you can’t pierce him. Which is great for a team like the Hawks that struggle to score.
It’s the Flames tomorrow night, who are playing some of the best hockey around. Which means if the Hawks can’t find another gear and some stability in their own end, they’d be a Top Cat miracle goal from losing seven in a row and 15 of 17. Not that 14 of 17 is that much better.
The season is on the very edge of the precipice. Maybe they should act like it on the ice…or perhaps they’ve already accepted their fate.
Game #27 Preview Suite
It was all lined up for the Preds last year. Coming off their first Final appearance, and after a big trade that supposedly landed them the #2 center they’ve always needed (even though they don’t really have a #1), and a career-season out of Pekka Rinne at 35, this was their moment.
And they fluffed their lines.
They ran into a team that did what they did but better. They ran into a team with four genuine centers and two that could claim to be #1s. Rinne looked his age. Sure, it took to a Game 7, but the Preds only got to that by having to revert from their style and basically trap the Jets. It could only work for so long, because Pekka Rinne for his whole career save one playoff run has been just good enough to get you beat. And so it proved.
Oh, and the summer had yet another Predator proving to be nothing more than a shitbag, which of course they’ll welcome back with open arms because that’s what they do in Music City. AW HERE IN THE SOUTH WE THINK HITTIN’ YOUR WOMAN IS A SIGN OF LOVE. YOU YANKS JUST WOULDN’T UNDERSTAND WITH YOUR FANCY COMPASSION.
Anyway, the Preds are just going to roll it back, with essentially the same team and Rinne another year older. Funny thing though, the Jets haven’t gone anywhere, the Blues suddenly look a little spiky, and the Sharks await whoever survives this cage match. The Preds very well may have missed their boat.
2017-2018: 53-18-11 117 points 267 GF 211 GA 51.5 CF% 50.9 xGF% 8.1 SH% .935 SV%
Goalies: This could be the start of something big. And by “big” I mean a controversy. The Preds have seemingly wanted to hand the job to Juuse Saros for a while now. But they watched Rinne have a renaissance starting in the ’17 playoffs and all through last season. They can’t exactly just dislodge him due to policy.
And yet he’s turning 36 in a month. He has the Game 7 full-body dry heave during the Preds’ best chance for a Cup hanging over him. It won’t take much for their to be a whiff of a switch. They nearly did it two seasons ago before Rinne discovered Ponce De Leon’s secret.
Which in one sense is great for the Preds. Saros has been excellent whenever called upon, even though he’s small and small goalies really struggle in today’s league. If Rinne stumbles, their season won’t be torpedoed.
On the other hand, you’re talking about an organizational legend, the longest-tenured Pred by some distance, and a fan favorite. A team leader, and there’s no telling what kind of effect turning things over to Saros could have. This seems to be a team that has cohesion, but you’ve seen it rip teams apart before. It’s one fissure everyone has to keep an eye on.
Most likely, Rinne is just good enough during the season to keep these questions at bay. But in the spring if something should go haywire, it’ll take quite the tap-dance for Peter Laviolette to negotiate.
Defense: Well, they had the best defense in the league, so no reason to not return with it. Or they did until the Sharks traded for Erik Karlsson. But this is still the strength of the team. They added Dan Hamhuis again to fill out the third pairing, and even though he’s a million years old now he can probably take 12-15 minutes a night and do it well. It’s still the top four that’s the envy of most of the league.
It’s actually only middling defensively, as they give up an average amount of attempts and chances. But with Ellis, Josi, Subban, and Ekholm, they create far more than they surrender. You can’t find a team that has more players that get the team up the ice from the back themselves. Ellis is here for the full run this time, which will help them stay at the top of the division. Sure, they need some bailing out from their goalie at times, but they also keep the Preds on the right side of the ice enough.
Forwards: We’re the only ones who think this, and no matter how much we shout it from the rooftops no one seems to listen. When Ryan Johansen is not playing for a contract, he’s playing for a lava cake. As I said in the Preds’ eulogy, he had the same amount of points as Jonathan Toews last year and everyone tells me Toews is clinically dead. Mark Scheifele kicked his ass up and down the ice in that series last year, mostly because RyJo was still digesting the family size bag of M&Ms he ate at intermission. There’s no reason to think that won’t continue.
The Preds backed that up by acquiring Kyle Turris, whom reports suggest did play in last year’s playoffs. I’m not sure where there’s evidence of that. Maybe I need decoder glasses for it or something.
Turris and Johansen will do enough in the regular season to make you think the Preds are strong down the middle. And then they’ll run up against the Jets or Sharks or Blues, who actually have real center-depth, and the Preds will have a real damn problem.
Other than that, it’s still the same crop of quick forwards who never stop working and basically run most teams out of the building most nights. They’re probably looking for more from Kevin Fiala this term, who had something of a breakout with 23 goals last year. If they get it they’re more than fine. If they don’t, they’re just a touch short on scoring.
Outlook: Here’s another thing to watch with the Preds this year. Lavvy is almost certainly past his sell-by date. He wore out his act in Carolina and Philly well before this, and his intense ways can grind on players. If things go just a little sideways early in the season, they could pull the rip-chord on him. The goalie situation won’t help.
But other than those two maybes, there’s a lot more certainties with Nashville. One of the best blue lines in the league. Two good goalies. Maybe not the forward corps most people think, but certainly one good enough to cash in on the puck-movers they have at the back. They’ll be at the top of the division and conference again.
But there’s also no reason to think that an encounter with Winnipeg will go that much differently. If they survive that, there’s still San Jose, who won’t be nearly as tested in the Pacific, likely. It looks like it’ll be too much for Treat Boy and the gang to overcome.
vs. 
SCHEDULE: Game 1 Friday, Game 2 Sunday, Game 3 Tuesday, Game 4 May 4th
While Boston-Tampa will take most of the attention by merely being on the East Coast and everything Boston must be covered at all times otherwise Bill Simmons urinates on most of LA, this is the series that will hold the most entertainment value. These are certainly the two best teams in the West, and two of the four best in the NHL. Both are simply stacked at forward so goals should be prevalent. This one is going to be a coke-binge and catch as much as you can.
Goalies: Connor Hellebuyck didn’t really have to do much in the first round than maintain requisite oxygen intake in the first round, because the Minnesota Wild were barely there. But that’s probably a perfect way to wet your feet into playoff hockey, and he’s going to have to be much better this series. It did not go well for Hellebuyck in the regular season against the Preds, as he gave up 19 goals in five starts against them. That doesn’t really matter here, but you’d have to be the most cockeyed, Jets optimist with a fair amount of glue to huff to think that Hellebuyck is going to completely stonewall the Preds. How he reacts to his first playoff adversity is anyone’s guess.
It would be totally on course for the Pekka Rinne Ride to be pretty mediocre last regular season to a playoff marvel and then switch it this year to a Vezina-worthy season this year to turning into a Jalopi in the playoffs this year. He was very not good against the Avalanche, and they only have one line, which is daunting considering the Jets have four. Maybe he was playing down to the competition, maybe the whole team was. But a .909 against the Jets is going to see the Preds go home and probably rather quickly. He’s going to have to be better.
Defense: Again, it’s hard to learn much from the first round about the Jets’ defense when they were playing a bubble hockey opponent. The Jets look like they’ll get a boost back here with Toby Enstrom returning for this series, and he’ll be the one who holds the leash on Dustin Byfuglien. Trouba and Morrissey were excellent against the Wild, and punting Tyler Myers down to a third-pairing bum-slayer role is exactly what he was cut out for. You worry about what the Preds might do when Byfuglien goes out walkin’ after midnight searching for a McGriddle, but the rest of this outfit is pretty solid.
What it isn’t is as dynamic as the Preds’ blue line, though maybe as deep. They conspired to give up a ton of chances to the Avalanche, figuring they’d win a track meet with their depth. That’s what this blue line does, with Subban, Ellis, Josi, and Ekholm all willing and able to get up and down the entire surface. They know no other way, but leaving gaps against this Jets team is a different story than doing so against the Avs. Still, overall, possession-wise, the Preds kicked around Colorado, especially the pairing of Subban and Ekholm. Rougher ride here.
Forwards: The Jets depth is truly scary, and just about everyone chipped in during the first round. What we’re most looking forward to is if either coach settles for fighting fire with fire and has Scheifele match up with Johansen, because we’re fairly sure he’ll inhale Treat Boy. Johansen won’t find much more shelter with either Little or Stastny either. The Jets didn’t lose a step when Ehlers had to miss a game, but he’ll be back for Game 1. The best forward grouping in the league.
The Predators are hardly thin, but don’t boast quite the weapons on their bottom-six as the Jets do. And Forsberg isn’t going to get to go traipsing through three guys whenever he wants like he did against the rotted scarecrows of the Avalanche. If the Jets keep the top line of the Preds somewhat quiet, you then wonder if the Preds can come up with enough goals to run with them. Turris didn’t really do anything against the Avs, and this is much deeper water here and you feel like he comes out barely even or worse against either Little or Stastny. And Mike Fisher is not keeping up with this crew.
Prediction: Been waiting for this one for a while. The Preds have become everyone’s darling while ignoring what their flaws are. It’s a great blue line, but the Jets advantage at forward is just a touch bigger than the one the Preds have on defense. The goalies could be a wash, though you could see either melting down. With how many goals they’re likely to share, just about anything could happen. But if we expect, and Scheifele and Wheeler outplay Treat Boy and Forsberg, the Jets take this. But it’s going to be a ton of fun getting there. Jets in 7.
vs. 
SCHEDULE: Game 1 Thursday, Game 2 Saturday, Game 3 Monday, Game 4 April 18th
There’s been so much hype and yapping coming out of Nashville that they’ve gone from a team and fanbase I generally had no problem to one I’d be happy to see eat it and as soon as possible. Sadly, a one-man team is almost certainly not going to be able to pull off the job, and that’ll give us the Jets-Predators series we all want to watch anyway. Still, it could get trickier than it needs to be for the Preds.
Goalies: The Avs are going to have to resort to their backup, though they have one of the better backups in the league. Semyon Varlamov hurt a tentacle and is done for the year, so it’ll be up to Jonathan Bernier. Bernier was about league average this year, which for your #2 is exactly what you’d want. Since taking over the past few games he’s barely been ok, though he shut down the Blues enough in the last game of the season. Still, he wasn’t very good against the Sharks, Ducks, or Kings, three playoff teams. And the Avs really needed those wins. So that’s a problem.
The Predators have no such problems. Thanks to Vasilevskiy’s fall-off this year, there’s not much doubt that Pekka Rinne is going to win the Vezina this year. There’s no way around a .927 this year, and that’s what Rinne put up. Rinne had been an underwhelming playoff performer until last season, where he put up a .930. Most goalies don’t figure out something at 35. Clearly Rinne has. This matchup alone is probably enough for the Preds to get through, and easily .
Defense: Let’s face it, the Avs roll into the playoffs with probably the worst blue line of any playoff team. Patrik Nemeth and Deputy Samuel Girard are on the top pairing. Tyson Barrie is about the only experience they have at anything with plodding Nikita Zadorov. It’s a real issue. And considering the speed the Preds have, they’re going to get buried. Which means Bernier is going to have to bail them out, and he’s not really equipped to do that.
The Preds blue line… you don’t need me to tell you. It’s the best of the teams left. There are at least three top pairing guys here, and you could make a case for Ekholm if you want. And if they keep Alexei Emelin on the third pairing where he belongs, they will have these four guys on the ice for 45-50 minutes of each game. That’s enough.
Forwards: The only thing you can say for the Avs is that they’ll have the best player in this series. Nathan MacKinnon is your Hart Trophy winner, unless every voter had an embolism while voting (which they did). The Avs only hope is he goes nuclear, and even that might not be enough. Past his line, there’s just nothing. Tyson Jost and Alex Kerfoot have nice futures ahead of them but they’ve got a long way to go. Carl Soderberg do anything for you?
Meanwhile, the Preds are deep and fast. Even if Ryan Johansen is a dough-filled dog now that he got paid (and he is), and even if MacKinnon eats him alive and spits him back out to eat him again (he will), the Avs aren’t going to have an answer for Kyle Turris’s line or Nick Bonino as a #3, which he won the past two Cups as. Johansen might be a problem in future rounds, but it really won’t matter here.
Prediction: You just can’t find a path for the Avs, other than HOCKEY. MacKinnon could steal them a game, maybe even two, but you wouldn’t count on it given all the Preds have. Let’s get to the main event here. Preds in 5.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 23-19-7 Predators 29-11-7
PUCK DROP: 7pm
TV: NBCSN Nationally, NBSCN Chicago locally
MANY MORE OF THEM LIVE NEXT DOOR: On The Forecheck
When you biff what should be the easier part of your schedule, that means you have to get it done against the harder part of the schedule. But hey, why not go for degree of difficulty when you’ve got nothing else to lose? The Hawks begin a pretty tricky stretch of the campaign tonight, with their post-All Star break slate taking them to the West’s best team (yes they are, fuck off Vegas) before heading back out West which didn’t go so well last time. And if the Hawks have any designs on making something of this season, they don’t get any mulligans anymore.
And this is probably not the time to be catching the Predators, even if this comes one game early for Filip Forsberg’s return (not that he regularly torches the Hawks or anything). They’ve won seven of the last eight, and the only loss in that time was losing a game of pitch and toss to the Lightning. So yeah, they haven’t been beaten in regulation since January 2nd. They just got done thwacking the Devils in New Jersey before the break when they barely cared. If you’re looking for a silver lining, and you’ll have to dig, these wins haven’t exactly come against world beaters. The Yotes twice, the Kings, the Oilers, and the Panthers are the trophies on the wall for the month of January. Fuck, even the Hawks beat the Oilers twice.
While the Preds only sit one point back of the Jets and have three games in hand on them and are thus poised to show them a clean pair of heels right quick, there are cracks in the foundation underneath this team. While usually a staple of Peter Laviolette team, this team metrically is not very impressive. They’re exactly a dead-even possession team at 50 CF%, and they actually give up way better chances than they create with a pretty paltry 47.7 xGF% as a team. If you go by scoring chance and high-danger scoring chance percentages, they’re in the bottom third of the league in those as well.
Some of this can be attributed to Ryan Ellis only having played the last couple weeks, but that can’t explain it all. As good as Ellis is in both ends of the ice, one player is not making this up or at fault. The Preds don’t create as many chances per game as you’d assume they do given their speed and depth. Pekka Rinne has had to pull their ass out of a sling pretty often, and when he hasn’t Juuse Saros mostly has. That’s who the Hawks will get tonight as Rinne is preserved for a couple more days after the break.
The Preds lack of punch could be a matter of just pacing until the spring. It could be that Ryan Johansen has looked like the over-fed pile of earlobes that he did at times in Ohio and not the dynamo who’d eat your heart last spring. Totally not a coincidence that he signed a new contract that pays him $8 mildo until the sun swallows us all this summer, then.
The Preds have been picked up by their depth though, with Fiala, Smith, and Jarnkrok all scoring more than 10 goals off the top line. And as they do, they pour goals and points in from the back end, with PK Subban leading them in scoring and Josi and Ekholm both having more than 20 points as well. The return of Ellis only exacerbates this, and though Josi and Ellis are playing together at the moment Lavvy always has the option of splitting them up and having scoring threats on all three pairings. They’re about the only team in the league that can threaten that.
For the Hawks, there don’t appear to be any changes from last Thursday’s demolition of the Red Wings, and nor should there be. We want to see Top Cat get more chances to play with actual talent, and if anyone is going to wake up Brandon Saad it’s Patrick Kane. The third line is still something of a jumble but the 4th line is definitely more interesting as a speedy Pollock painting than whatever it was Wingels and Bouma did (though Wingels is still ahead of Sharp on the third line, which is fine). Anton Forsberg gets the start after being solid enough against Detroit.
This month is filled with games against teams either right around the Hawks or ahead of them, aside from Vancouver on Thursday and they didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory last time they were there. They see the Flames twice, Ducks, Stars, Wild, Kings and Sharks. This ain’t do disco, this ain’t no time for foolin’ around.
Game #50 Preview
at 
Game Time: 7:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBCSN National, WGN-AM 720
Fuck David Poile: On The Forecheck
With the next stop on this Freakout Hell Bus Ride of 5 games in 7 nights for the Hawks, they find themselves once again in Nash Vegas, where they’ll take on the league’s secret scumbag team masquerading as its sweetheart, the Predators, who somehow once again look different than the last time the Hawks saw them.
Hayley is a contributor to OnTheForecheck.com. You can follow her on Twitter @ItsHalesYeah.
Everyone’s darling. It’s always so much fun when the Canadian media “discovers” that hockey can be enjoyed somewhere else other than some main artery in Toronto or that one strip of bars in Calgary where everyone wears a jersey because they don’t actually own anything else. Of course, this also happened in 2012 when the Canucks played the Predators in the 2nd round and they were shocked to discover the Nashville fans had better and more fun traditions than, “two college kids ripping off a game from It’s Always Sunny,” and “waving a towel.”
Whatever, the Nashville Predators made the most noise they ever have in the playoffs last year, and outplayed the Penguins for a good stretch of the Final. But in the same vein as, “didn’t, lawyer fucked me,” they went the, “if only Pekka Rinne was actually as good as we keep telling people he is” route for defeat excuse. Here’s the thing though: Pekka Rinne is still here. And he’s a year older.
’16-’17 Record: 41-29-12 94 points (4th in Central, lost Final to PIT)
Team Stats 5v5: 51.3 CF% (5th) 51.3 SF% (7th) 50.7 SCF% (14th) 7.8 SH% (13th) .926 SV% (9th)
Special Teams: 18.9 PP% (16th) 80.9 PK% (15th)