Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, and Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews: Alex DeBrincat

By 2049

It may sound kinda strange to say about a team that has had more success than all but one of the other teams in the NHL over the past decade, but the Blackhawks have only had a few prospects to truly get excited about in this era. There’s been Saad, Schmaltz, and of course my perfect and special boy Teuvo, but otherwise most of the prospects in the past few years have been mostly middle of the road guys, and most of those guys have ended up being disappointing. But when they were able to draft Alex DeBrincat with the 39th overall pick in last year’s NHL draft, they got probably the best scoring prospect they’ve had in a while.

2016-17 Stats (w/ OHL Erie)

Regular Season: 63 GP – 65 G – 62 A

Playoffs: 22 GP – 13 G – 25 A

A Look Back: DeBrincat has torn up the OHL for the past three years, with his best overall production coming just last season when he posted 127 points in 63 games for a 2.22 points per game average. He was essentially a lock to score a goal and assist on a goal every time he was in the lineup. That came a year after he posted 101 points (51 G, 50A) in 60 games during the ’15-’16 season and 104 points (51 G, 53 A) in 68 games in ’14-’15.

DeBrincat has played most of the last three seasons with some damn good linemates. He was Connor McDavid’s winger in ’14-’15 and spent most of the past two seasons with Dylan Strome as his pivot. It’s no secret that playing with the best player to enter the NHL in the last decade and another of the game’s top forward prospects is sure to help any player put up some major points, especially in juniors. But watching DeBrincat play makes it clear he’s more than just a passenger along for the ride with elite centermen.

He moves well in just about every sense you can think of. He’s fast and agile on his feet, and his passing ability and vision are just about elite. His wrist shot is quick, and is just about accurate enough that it could take down a buck at 500 yards. If he was 6’2″ with all of the ability, he’d probably have been a top-10 pick in 2016. Instead, he’s 5’7″, was ranked in the 20’s before falling to 39, and has critics – including everyone’s favorite HockeyBuzz fool – questioning his ability to stick at the NHL level due to his size.

A Look Ahead: Listen, I get the fascination with size in the NHL. It’s a physical game, and in a physical battle you’re probably going to favor the bigger man. But hockey isn’t a game won by hit counts, PIM, or fights, it’s won with goals, and DeBrincat can stuff the fucking stat sheet. Besides, in a league that has seen the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, Tyler Johnson, Conor Sheary, Artemi Panarin, and countless others succeed while also being “undersized” (notice I omit the word “despite”), there’s no reason to think DeBrincat can’t succeed at the NHL level too.

Now that I’ve stepped down off my high horse while discussing our jockey-sized hockey players (sorry), it’s time to think about where DeBrincat fits with the Hawks moving into this year. The assumption seems to be that he’ll start in Rockford, and not for lack of reason. The Blackhawks have shown a willingness to be patient with their top prospects in recent years, and even overpatient at times. They – namely Q – have a tendency to hold their top level prospects back a few months in favor of boring ass veterans who serve no purpose other than depth. Never forget that it took an injury to Carcillo to get Saad up here to begin with, and Teuvo spent too damn long in the AHL in 2014-15 as well.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the Hawks did not do the same last year with Nick Schmaltz, as he started the year with Chicago and ended up staying with them for most of the year, playing 61 games in Four Feathers compared to 12 in the Hog. And on a team that is damn near starved for top end forward production, if DeBrincat shines in camp (and he already got started at the Traverse City Rookie Tournament), they’d be folly to leave him out for some of the Nickelback rejects they have for forward depth.

Regardless of when he does get the nod, I think it’s inevitable that we’ll see ADB (that’s his new shorthand name and you heard it hear first, motherfucker) in the Four Feather Sweater this season, barring injury or a major shitting of his pants in the A. There are two main places I see him fitting into the lineup. One would be on the wing opposite Kane, because dammit if DeBrincat isn’t as close to Panarin-lite as it comes. He can skate and pass with Mr. Madison 2012 all day long, and is almost certainly a better fit there from the start than Patrick Sharp.

The other spot that he could slot in well would be on the third line flanking Schmaltz, who has a pretty similar playing style to that of Dylan Strome. Those two along with another fast, skilled forward (not there are a ton of them) like maybe Hinostroza could skate circles around opponent’s bum lines and create some havoc.

In terms of what to expect from DeBrincat, using Behind The Net’s League-to-League conversion method, his 2.22 PPG last season would convert to roughly 52 points in a full 82 game NHL season. If he puts up those numbers, I think we’ll all be thrilled. Hopefully he just works on his hair choices.

All Stats via Elite Prospects

Photo via a guy on Twitter

Previous Player Previews:

Corey Crawford

Anton Forsberg

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Michal Kempny

Brent Seabrook

Gustav Forsling

The 6th D-Man

Artem Anisimov

Lance Bouma

Laurent Dauphin

Everything Else

Sit Back, Relax, and Strap it Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – Artem Anisimov

By 1864

It’s easy to take a guy like Anisimov for granted. When blinded by the light streaming from Artemi Panarin’s cherubic face, or from Patrick Kane’s…face, one might lose sight of the fact that wingers with over 30 goals must have a pretty decent center helping to make it all happen. It was a career year for Anisimov in a lot of ways, as we will see. But if this is any kind of fairy tale—brought back to life by the kiss of Quenneville after getting lost in the deep, dark Blue Jacket woods and getting his brain scrambled repeatedly—the clock is perilously close to midnight.

Everything Else

Post-Convention Grab Bag

By 1838

-There seemed to have been a bit of furor–in that whenever anything happens in July you have to make something out of it to pretend anything is happening at all–that at the convention Patrick Kane and Artem Anisimov expressed disappointment that Artemi Panarin had been traded for Brandon Saad.

It’s clearly obvious why Kane would be. His numbers are going to suffer. And that doesn’t make Kane out to be selfish or uncaring about the team. Most if not all hockey players are acutely aware of their stats, just as any athlete is any other sport is as well. Believe me, Jimmy Butler knows exactly what his points and assists are per game and Kris Bryant knows what he’s hitting. It’s part of the job.

Everything Else

Endless Summer

By 1886

It will be the longest summer for the Hawks since 2008. Even when they bit it in the first round in ’11, ’12, and last year, they at least made it to the last week of April. They barely cleared Tax Day this time.

So there’s going to be plenty of time for the Hawks to diagnose their issues and then prescribe what they want to do about it. Fifth Feather was correct last night, in that you can’t make rash decisions on a small set of games. Let’s go back to 2012. You actually forget how good that team was in the regular season, the second half without Toews. They finished with 101 points, and after that nine-game losing streak that nearly killed us all, they actually went 16-5-4 with Patrick Kane as the #1 center.

But they got goalie’d by Mike Smith, Toews wasn’t in any condition to be playing, and Crawford threw up all over himself. You’ll recall after that series there were plenty of calls for heads to roll, trade Kane for Ryan Miller, and how the 2010 Cup was a total fluke. You’ll also recall that this is when the rumors of Q and Stan Bowman not working well together and Q batting his eyes to Marc Bergevin in Montreal started to swirl. This supposedly caused McDonough to sort it all out, which led to Mike Haviland being turfed as an assistant and the hiring of Jamie Kompon, whatever that did for you.

Everything Else

The Night Dixie Drove Us Down: Hawks 2 – Predators 3 (Preds lead 3-0)

By 1394

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

When I look back on it, I guess my predictions on this series, and the ones I assumed would follow, were based on hope more than I realized. I hoped Duncan Keith was merely pacing himself for what mattered. I hoped that Toews’s midseason scoring binged signaled he had not been infected by the Kopitar gremlins. I hoped that Quenneville would realize what he had in Oduya and TVR, and more importantly what he didn’t have, and would adjust accordingly. And I hoped that the weight of all Corey Crawford had to carry at least in the first half of the season wouldn’t be too much to leave him incapable of more miracles now. Of all those, he got the closest.

While there will be a lot of ink spilled tomorrow about “grit,” “want to,” “determination,” and whatever other bullshit we’ve built our career in dispelling, the answer is more simple than that. It’s speed. The Preds can trap, or they can forecheck, they can collapse, but whatever they do they can do it so much faster than the Hawks. When the Hawks simply mishandle a pass, or take an extra beat to get it under control, there’s a Pred there. When they do manage to get it deep, the mobile Preds defense is there. When the Hawks think they have a passing lane, it’s filled faster than they can compute.

Everything Else

A Spring Of Trepidation

By 1372

Let’s start this with a story, one that exemplifies how childish, petty, and vitriolic being a sports fan can be. But hopefully, if you work out these kinds of emotions in this arena, you don’t apply them to the rest of your life where people close to you  might get hurt. I said, “hopefully.”

It’s the Winter Classic at Wrigley. You may not remember, but as the Hawks had exploded on the scene in November and December, they had actually crawled to within four points of the Wings for first in the division. They faced two games against them, one in the Joe and the Winter Classic. Those of us who weren’t quite in tune with our senses thought this was the moment to really fire off a warning shot. I had launched the C.I. two months before, and was still sleeping on my father’s couch while it took hold.

You might recall that the Hawks got completely pantsed in Detroit, and it wasn’t much better at the Winter Classic. The Hawks got taught a lesson on what it would take to be where Detroit was and how much farther they had to go. But that’s not the point here.

Everything Else

I Hurt The Flower: Hawks 5 – Penguins 1

By 1305

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

There’s a line I like to use, I wish it was mine. Most of the shit I say isn’t mine. Anyway, I took it from something someone said about the first era of Mourinho’s Chelsea. It was, “The way to beat them is the same way you get flattened by them.” It works for this Hawks team.

I don’t think the Penguins had the wrong plan, even though they have maybe half of their strongest roster right now. You can’t beat the Hawks trying to be conservative, or trapping, or toeing carefully in the offensive zone. Give the Hawks too much space, doesn’t press their weak points.

You do beat them by going right at them. Trying to get speed to the outside, which the slower-than-accustomed Hawks defense can’t really deal with. You get your defense involved, ahead of forwards the Hawks might have left too high. You make the same, short passes at your line that the Hawks do at theirs to bypass the third forward and possibly a pinching d-man.

The problem though, is that if you don’t take the chances that creates, or the Hawks are at the absolute top of their game, or your goalie isn’t anywhere near his, or you go just a touch overboard, or some combination thereof, you’re going to turn the neutral zone into a runway for the Hawks. While they may not have the wheels out of the back they used to, they have more than enough d-men who can pass their way out of trouble if you give them the space.

Everything Else

I’m A Lincoln Monologue, I’m Livin’ Like A God: Hawks 2 – Sens 1

By 1221

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

“Some guys look at this glass and say it’s half full. Some guys would say it’s half empty. I’m bettin’ you’re one of the half-empty guys.”

“Well what would you, if every day was exactly the same, and nothing you did mattered?”

“That about sums it up for me.”

The last bit of life ennui is brought to you by Guy Boucher, who in high school was voted most likely to take lemons and make it a Chekhov play. Some coaches would look at a roster of 12, fast, and at least decently skilled forwards and think, “Hey, I can make some things happen offensively here!” Guy Boucher looks at a roster of 12 fast, decently skilled forwards and thinks, “Hey, I can use this speed to make sure they all get back to the neutral zone to trap in plenty of time and make every fan question the meaning of existence!”

Everything Else

Upon This Rock

By 1470

This week has seen Jonathan Toews be the target of more vitriol and criticism from Blackhawks fans than the rest of his entire career combined. Some of it is most certainly justified. Toews is on pace for less than 15 goals this season, his possession numbers have cratered in a lot of ways, and he just has not been noticeable on the ice most of the time. As we pointed out in the podcast, the coup de grace was doing his angry-Toews act in the press on Friday after the Hawks were picking parts of the Caps’ boots out of their chests for hours, and then getting completely worked over by Mikko Koivu on Sunday in response. This is just not something we’ve seen from Toews very much, if at all, in his now 10 years in the NHL.

It has been this blog’s contention, or maybe just this lone derelict’s, that Duncan Keith’s game has slowed so far this season as well, no matter how much Eddie Olczyk yells at me and no matter how much he piles up secondary assists.

Maybe it’s time we wonder if these things are at least partially linked.

Everything Else

Good For What Ails Ya: Hawks 3 – Sabres 3 (Hawks win Calf-roping)

By 1323

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Shift Charts

Some of these aren’t so complicated. The Hawks would have won this by three or four goals, and certainly deserved to, if not for the heroics of Anders Nilsson. The Sabres quite frankly are an unfortunate hockey team, and the Hawks mauled them all over the ice. They had 20 shots in the first, and it’s not like the 23 they managed from there are bad. Sure, it took Anisimov getting a bounce with two minutes to go and get the right break in the Rugby 7’s after regulation, but it’s two points and those are always welcome when the Wild are right on your ass. If finishing first means anything, which we’ll figure out later.

The Hawks were punished for all their mistakes. Seabrook channeling last year’s version by lazily going to collect a puck and then belching it up the boards right to Foligno. Keith getting his pocket picked by Okposo. Rasmussen and Working Class Kero not getting a puck out and leaving EichelMania to get teed up. The Sabres do come with the top end talent at forward to make you pay if you fuck up against them. Just upped the degree of difficulty, and even an OT loss there would have felt like the luck was out as well as whatever else hasn’t added up during this small streak of futility. But no matter.

Let’s clean it up: