Everything Else

Is Patrick Kane Having The Best Season By A Hawk Ever?

By Sam Fels 3034 0

Yes.

Oh, I probably should go into it a little more, huh? Fair. This isn’t an MVP or Not-MVP discussion. I’m frankly tired of them and they don’t usually add up to any sort of logic. As I’ve said repeatedly, to me it should just be a “Player Of The Year” award, and on that status it’s really hard to not give it to Nikita Kucherov because he’s going to have a 130+ points and that’s stupid. He’s a big reason he plays on the best team in hockey, the best team in years, and he shouldn’t be punished for it. So let’s turn the talk.

What you might be watching is the best season a Hawk has ever had. The team record for points in a season is 131 by Denis Savard in ’87-’88. You might not have known that, and honestly I had to look it up. It’s not a celebrated number around here, which is weird, and might have to do something with it not being held by Eddie Olczyk and thus can’t be proclaimed through his own megaphone what an accomplishment it is because he did it. So yeah, 131.

And Kane is on a pace to get almost there without any adjustment for era or atmosphere, which we’ll get to. Right now he’s no his way to 125 points, by far a career-high, and the most any Hawks has managed since Savard. No Hawk has cleared 110 points since Savard’s record-breaker, and the most since is Roenick’s 107 in ’93-’94. Clearly, no one’s seen this in a very long time around these parts.

So let’s try and adjust for the different environments Savard was in and Kane is in. When Savard put up his 131, teams averaged 3.7 goals per game. This year, even with the bump in scoring, teams are averaging 3.06 goals per game. This is pretty crude, but we’ll try it: Savard averaged 1.59 points per game, hence he was a part, either scoring or assisting, of 42% of the goals per game. Kane is averaging 1.53 points per game, which means he’s a part of exactly half the goals taking place for the Hawks each game. So if Kane were zapped back to 1987, he would be averaging 1.85 points per game, which over a full 82 would equal out to 151 points. So yeah, there you go.

If Kane were to somehow get even more nuclear somewhere around here, he would have an outside shot at the club record of 58 goals (and Garbage Dick taking a record from the Drunk, Wife-Punchy Nazi would be a pretty wonderful symbol for the Hawks organization). Right now he’s on course for 51, and he’ll be the first Hawk to get to 50 since Roenick did it in 1993. But again, different scoring environment. And it’s actually a better scoring atmosphere now than it was in ’68-’69 when Hull put up 58, which is really shocking because goalies then were just newspaper guys they pulled in off the street and threw pads on. Obviously, Kane would score 439 goals if he were transported back to 1968. Let’s leave it at that.

Kane’s also likely to set a career-high in power play points. It’s 37 in his MVP year, and he’s already at 28 now. He’s at least on pace to match it. Where Kane is really making a difference is that he’s on pace to shatter his personal record for shots in a year, as he’s averaging over four per game for the first time in his career. In all situations Kane is averaging 10.8 shots/per 60, and the 15.7 per 60 on the power play are the highest since he won the Hart. His 8.91 per 60 at evens is actually lower than it was last year, so that’s where he’s making up the ground.

However you break it down, this is the best season Kane has had, and it’s at 30. Which is just ridiculous. Only he and Sidney Crosby are above 30 among the top-10 scorers in the league (Stamkos is 29). While he may still represent a special kind of scumbag, what he’s doing on the ice hasn’t been seen in this city in a very long time, and very well might not again. But the way he’s going, he might just do it all again next year.

Everything Else

Game #61 – Hawks 4, Red Wings 4, Hawks Win Belching Contest – I May Be Going to Hell in a Bucket, but at Least I’m Enjoying the Ride

By Rose Rankin 2175 0

This game is a perfect example of why the Blackhawks aren’t actually a good team, despite fancy numbers like wins and point streaks. They blew a three-goal lead in the third against the flotsam that is the Detroit Red Wings, or really, because the two good players on the Wings were able to score multiple times against the entire Hawks lineup. The Hawks’ possession, shots, and general defensive effort were awful, and had they been playing a team that was marginally functional, they probably would have lost. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The Hawks started strong for the most part. They had a few shots given up really early, but ended up taking control of the first period and jumping out to 3-1 lead. Anisimov caught Jimmy Howard being lazy and dumb and scored on a wraparound, Saad torched Niklas Kronwall—whose level of speed can only be generously called glacial—and scored his 21st goal, and then Dylan Strome had a patient, gorgeous pass to Top Cat who buried it. Their possession at evens wasn’t stellar (exactly 50 CF%) but they had the numbers that counted.

–They started to take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal in the second, even though Kane increased his point streak and extended the lead to 4-1. By the third period they were in full-on blowing-the-game mode, despite being barely above water in possession (52.3 CF%). Dylan Larkin and Andreas Athanasiou pretty much scored at will, and fucking Anthony Mantha had assists on all four goals. This points to the fact that Coach Cool Youth Pastor still has to either get the team to listen to him or take him seriously, or at least give half a fuck, when things are going well.

–Drake Caggiula got one of his eyes gouged out by Toews’ stick in the first, and he didn’t return the rest of the game. Now, I’ve shit-talked about him plenty, and I still believe he’s basking in some reflected glory by playing on a line with two Hall of Fame’rs having fuck you years, but honestly this isn’t a good thing in any way. Regardless of the reasoning he fit in well on the top line and with Kampf hurt we don’t need to lose any more forwards. Granted Brandon Saad replaced him, and he certainly deserves to be on the top line, but this isn’t the way you want to see it happen.

–The Hawks managed just 20 shots on goal…but hey, they gave up fewer than 40!

–Relatedly, Gustav Forsling looked particularly dreadful tonight. He was constantly standing around not knowing what to do or where to go on most of the Wings’ goals. He finished the night with a 37.5 CF%, and while no one was exactly sparkling with possession tonight, even Slater Koekkoek had over 50%. He was painful to watch and unfortunately I imagine most teams and their moronic GMs are noticing that too.

–Cam Ward did make some good saves throughout the night, but he still finished with an .886 SV%. I’m not even going to sit here saying Delia would have been better because who the hell knows these days, but while Ward wasn’t solely to blame for giving up the lead, he never inspired much confidence either.

–Mike Tirico did the play by play for the first time and was perfectly suited to it. He handled Eddie well, and we fortunately were spared Pierre McGuire doing something idiotic or tone deaf like reminding him not to be a fan.

At the end of the day, the Hawks got the two points and this week remains interesting. So all’s well that ends well, but I gotta say that giving up a three-goal lead to a collection of basement-dwellers doesn’t exactly bode well for this playoff push, or whatever this may be. Still, it’s a win, so onward and upward…

 

Everything Else

Game #61 – Hawks vs. Red Wings Preview/Bundt Cake Party: That Dork Looks Like Jam

By Sam Fels 1769 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 25-26-9   Red Wings 23-29-8

PUCK DROP: 6:30

TV: NBCSN (with Mike “Handsy Hands” Tirico calling his first ever hockey game)

THEY MAKE PORNO MOVIES THAT START THAT WAY TOO: Winging It In Motown

I guess pretty soon we’re going to have to replace the train-wreck picture. Is there a way to represent “no plan but a process?” We’ll find out. Because here’s something for ya: If the Hawks win tonight and the Jets beat the Avs, the Hawks will hold the final wild card spot. Fuck, they’ll only be two points behind the Stars for the first wildcard spot, and they just happen to wash up here on Sunday. The Avs do on Friday. As stupid and nonsensical as it may be, these are actual big games. If the Hawks were to win the next three, including two over direct competitors, they aren’t just in the playoff race. They’re firmly entrenched. Perhaps even slight favorites.

They’ll also only be .500. And even a win tonight would only see them seven points ahead of this twisted heap of metal that is the Red Wings. They’re only two points ahead of the Ducks, who are unquestionably a fertilizer collection of a hobo.

#EndHockey

Anyway, that’s the scene, and just about every time you’ve expected the floor to drop out from the Hawks they just keep finding a way to stick around. Either loss to the Bruins or Jackets could have easily sent them to a tailspin. Especially as both were followed by piss poor starts against the Devils and Senators, And yet they recovered. Yes, they recovered against the Devils and Senators, which essentially is the hockey interpretation of my crazy, 30-pound husky/spitz mix knocking over a toddler out of sheer excitement (and she’s done this). But whatever. They recovered. And now it’s at a point where you have to say the Hawks can’t really lose to the Wings. It would be a bad loss.

So here we are. Surface details: Cam Ward will start, as it appears Collin Delia has played himself into waiting around until Corey Crawford is healthy and he can be packed back off to Rockford. His confidence could probably use it. Brendan Perlini is sick, might not play, letting Chris Kunitz back in. Brent Seabrook will play, which will assuredly tighten up the defense that was more welcoming than a Vegas buffet. Ha, that’s funny. See what I did there?

As for the Wings, they still suck. Since losing to the Hawks even though they outplayed them, they’ve beaten the Predators and Senators, but lost to the Flyers twice in a home-and-home. They’re just waiting for Monday, when they can eject their flotsam for picks and fringe prospects, and fill those vacated spots with more promising kids. There’s talk talk that last spring’s top pick, Filip Zadina, will come up after the deadline to take Nyquist’s spot. Stuff like that.

Unlike last time, the Hawks will get Jimmy Howard instead of Jonathan Bernier. Howard will be auditioning for the Sharks or maybe Flames or Jackets as trade bait. He’s a free agent in the summer, the Wings are going to have to have a longer term plan in net than him, and he’s actually been pretty good this year. He’s got playoff experience, and this might be a chip Wings cash in for more than they probably should. His .913 is certainly an improvement on what those teams mentioned are getting right now.

Other differences from 10 days ago is that Trevor Daley is back with his chaw and wayward sense of direction and logic. He joins something named Filip Hronek on the third-pairing. Justin “Let Out The” Abdelkader (cuz the revolution’s here and you know it’s right) has been punted to the bottom-six where he’s always belonged, allowing Nephew Bertuzzi to be with Dylan Larkin. Other than that, there’s not much to report.

Again, if the Hawks keep Larkin and Andreas Anathasiou (I can’t wait another dayyyyyyy) on a leash, you’re three-quarters of the way to beating this outfit. There’s not a lot of depth here, the blue line is slow, and when the Hawks were fully engaged last time this was a team they actually looked significantly faster than. Keep that up, and suddenly the weekend is awfully interesting.

 

Game #61 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #60 – Senators 7, Hawks 8 – Stockholm Syndrome

By Adam Hess 1984 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica was broken tonight, probably by this game

The Hawks schedule in February was always favorable because while they are certainly not a good hockey team, they aren’t really close talent-wise to being one of the worst in the NHL. When you have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and Alex DeBrincat and Brandon Saad and Dylan Strome all having good seasons, you’re not gonna bottom out, even if I in particular thought doing so was the best route. The blue line is still garbage and the system that Colliton is running is getting them torched in their own zone nightly, but they still can’t be one of the worst teams.

That being said, nothing is in place to stop them from playing down to the competition, and while the scoreline might indicate a fun and exciting hockey game, I felt more like I was watching a horrific game that was trying to get me to love it. Hence, the title of this wrap. Let’s just get to the bullets.

– So, in the interest of full disclosure, I missed the first period live (lost track of time), but caught up on the highlights in the intermission. What I saw was a lot of capitalization by the goal scoring team on bad plays from the opponent or a lucky bounce on just about every play. The first Sens goal was just piss poor on Delia, another example of how he still isn’t quite in franchise goaler territory yet. Sure it was on the PP, but it was one he needed to have. The second Sens goal was just dumb luck as the Hawks were caught with the pants at their ankles on defensive transition. Just about every Hawks goal save for DeBrincats PP tally was the same. It was just ugly hockey and bad goaltending, and it got disguised by the puck finding the net. If most of those pucks stay out, we would’ve been talking about a truly boring, awful hockey game after 20 minutes.

– The rest of the game mad a bit more sense, but it was still not good on either side. Carl Dahlstrom got absolutely toasted by Thomas Chabot in the third period before Cam Ward gave up a pathetic short-side goal. Neither team’s blue line could fight their way out of their own defensive zone if it was a wet paper sack. It was just bad. At least the score made it kind of interesting, I guess.

– With all that being said, there was still some positivity to be found here too, but nothing really new. Top Cat is still really good at scoring goals. Dylan Strome continues to flash the tools that most scouts thought would compensate for his skating – his goal was such a perfect example of his instincts, “hockey IQ,” and soft hands. Those two specifically are really onto something, and it lets Colliton skull fuck the other team with Toews and Kane together.

– And boy, those two dudes can play together. I know that Q didn’t like relying on them together for the sake of balance and making it harder on the other teams, but it kind of looks like a feather in Colliton’s hat to be doing it so much. I don’t really think it’s much of a coincidence that they’re both having near-career years while spending so much time together. And it doesn’t even matter who is on the other wing, as long as they can stand up straight and hold their dick at a urinal, which Drake Caggiula is appearing to be capable of.

– So if I can stand on a soapbox here and use my conclusion on this wrap to make a point, here it is. You have two killer duos running your top two lines, with high skilled playmaking centers clearing the way for even higher skilled play making goal scorers who are usually the best player on the ice when they’re out there. Plus Saad’s had a resurgent year, and Kahun has been good, and you still might have something in Sikura, Kampf, Caggiula, and if you’re lucky one or two of the guys in Rockford. And people still want this team to re-sign Artemi Panarin to “shore up the top six” because there are “no good defensive options.” Motherfucker, if you went to liquor store for Zombie Dust and they didn’t have any, are you really gonna blow your money on Bud Light because you had a good time with it in college? No, you find another fucking way to get your Zombie Dust, bitch. So fuck off with this Panarin shit. Thanks.

– What a stupid win. What a stupid game. What a stupid month. What a stupid team. Stupid, all of it, but still intriguing. I guess that’s all we can really ask.

Everything Else

Game #60 – Senators vs. Hawks Preview/Birding Conference: Who’s To Say Who’s Right Or Wrong?

By Sam Fels 1744 0

vs.

 

RECORDS: Senators 22-31-5   Hawks 24-26-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BULLSHIT BULLSHIT BULLSHIT: Silver Seven Sens

There will be some, perhaps lots, who look across the ice tonight at the Ottawa Senators and wish the Hawks had taken their path so far, or at least their path forward. For the Senators are already at the bottom of the league, and will soon discard Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel (or should), and the end of their season will almost certainly be something resembling whatever that was at Daytona yesterday. Except instead of hilljacks it’ll be….Canadian hilljacks, and more Timbo’s. And the Senators will end up in the bottom three of the lottery, where they would have a great chance at a franchise-turning player in the draft.

Except they don’t have a first-round pick, so that’s the part Hawks fans wouldn’t want.

Meanwhile, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, with help from Erik Gustafsson and Alex DeBrincat and possibly Dylan Strome, will keep the Hawks from bottoming out. And whether it’s a reality or not, they’ll continue to chase a playoff spot that the Western Conference as a whole keeps trying to pass around like it was waiting at a highway-offramp. And they’ll end up with anywhere from the 7th to 16th pick, all the while not doing themselves a whole lot of good. Who will be better off when it’s all said and done? Well, the Hawks because they’ll actually have a pick. But you get it. It could be argued they’d be better long-term if they were where the Senators are.

But you didn’t come for hypotheticals.

Anyway, the Senators have been able to only put it together recently when playing the Jets, whom they’ve beaten twice in a week for some reason. Other than that, they’ve lost five of their other six games in February. Their lone win came against the Ducks, because you cannot lose to the Ducks no matter how badly you might like to or even try. It’s akin to Tommy trying to lose to Begbie in Trainspotting. And yes, the image of the Ducks as a whole cowering in a corner trying not to piss themselves works pretty well, I think.

That hasn’t kept Duchene, Stone, and Dzingel from trying to play their way into happier situations, and all have been hot of late. Dutch would seem a perfect fit for the Predators, which is goddamn annoying, which means the Jets are then also interested in that Central arms race. The Flames have been most hotly connected to Stone, but he will have no shortage of suitors either. If they can get a bidding war going for them they could end up with a decent enough haul. Or they’ll end up watching Eeli Tolvanen do nothing for years despite claims he was going to be the greatest Finn every to grace this league since the lovechild of Selanne and various Koivus. It’s the Senators, you won’t bet against anything.

As for the team that’s on the ice now, like the Hawks they are woeful defensively, among the worst in overall Corsi or xGF%, and in attempts and expected-goals against. When Thomas Chabot isn’t on the ice, the other pairings simply get steamrolled into their own end. While there is more than a touch of offensive talent at forward between the trade bait and Chris Tierny, Bobby “I Swear I’m Not The Dumbest Person Alive” Ryan, and Colin White, it doesn’t matter much when it’s backing up.

Craig Anderson is now too old to hold up under an avalanche, and Sens fans can thank him for extending noted-genius-in-his-own-mind Guy Boucher’s reign of boredom much longer than it should have gone thanks to a goofed East Final Game 7 appearance two years ago. Boucher’s “system,” such as it is, requires a goalie to throw a .925 or better at the world, and if they don’t his teams suck. And they almost always suck. Anderson is hurt, as 37-year-olds tend to get, so Hawks legend Anders Nilsson will be in net. He had a hot-streak upon arriving in The North Capital, but has flattened out of late.

For the Hawks, small changes around the edges. Collin Delia will slot back in, trying to come correct after a touchdown surrendered to the Bruins. Gustav Forsling will once again exhibit his modern art representation of sadness in place of Carl Dahlstrom, who was a splatter-painting himself on Saturday. Brendan Perlini will replace Chris Kunitz.

For whatever this is, the Avs and Yotes are also in action today, though both have tough assignments in the Knights and Flames, respectively. Should those results go the Hawks way and the Hawks get one over the Sens, they’ll be within one point of the last playoff spot. A playoff spot that the Wild clearly are treating like it needs disinfecting and have no interest in keeping. As dumb as it might seem, one point is one point, especially with the Wild beating a hasty retreat from the world at large.

You can’t say that the Hawks “should” beat anyone, given their status. But if anyone’s that team, it’s the Senators. And it’s also the Wings, who are on the docket Wednesday. And the Avs on Friday have been backing up for a couple months. Honestly, come Saturday night this could all be very real, no matter how stupid.

Ride the snake.

 

 

Game #60 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #58 – Devils 2, Hawks 5 – I’m the Man Who Brings You Roses When ‘Ya Ain’t Got None

By Rose Rankin 1989 0

It was Chris Kunitz‘s 1000th game, it was Valentine’s Day, there was so much to distract from the fact that it was two crappy teams both trying to bounce back from particularly crappy losses. But in the end, the fact that Cory Schneider is horrendous and Cam Ward was, well, really good, made the difference. To the bullets…

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– This game looked like it was going to get real ugly early on. The first period ended with shots at 14-13 Devils-Hawks, but the Hawks only caught up late in the period so that figure really masks how badly they were outplayed. A more accurate reflection is the 44.7 CF% at evens that they managed that period. In what will come as the least surprising statement of the night, the defense looked like total shit, with Erik Gustafsson being particularly putrid. He lost his man along the boards (or more accurately, stood there watching as he skated away) leading directly to the first goal by Damon Severson, he made multiple awful passes, and was generally useless. But it wasn’t just Gus. Everyone looked terrible except Cam Ward, who was lucky to keep it 2-0 for a while, and Patrick Kane, who just said fuck it and scored to make it 2-1 with just a couple minutes left.

– OK, it actually wasn’t just all Patrick Kane on that first goal; Dylan Sikura set up the play by winning a board battle with LOCAL GUY Nick Lappin and getting the puck to Kane in the first place. Sikura ended the night with a 68.4 CF%, and his line with Saad and Wide Dick had a 75 CF%, and I really wish Coach Cool Youth Pastor would see the value in the actions and numbers just described and play him for more than 10 minutes (or let’s just start with keeping him here instead of Rockford).

– Why would that possession matter so much? Because the Hawks were positively schizophrenic in their control of the puck tonight. They got domed in the first as described, then bounced back with a strong second period and managed a 60.5 CF% at evens, only to suck pond scum again in the third with a 34.5. They managed a paltry 8 shots in the third against the 19 they gave up to the Devils (yes, that’s right, 19 in the third), and it was really just Ward standing on his head, occasionally without a mask because of some bizarre wardrobe malfunction, that kept them in the period.

– And to that point, Ward was really good tonight. You know I don’t want to admit that, but I have to. There were flurries of shots he faced in both the first and third periods where it could have absolutely gotten out of hand. His positioning was excellent and rebound control was solid. Ward finished with a .953  SV%, and like always faced an obscene number of shots (43). Conversely, Cory Schneider is so bad I actually FEEL bad for him. He basically hasn’t won a game since the first Obama administration, and his total lack of rebound control led to Anisimov’s insurance goal in the third, which basically put the game away. At the end of the day, I’m glad the Hawks won so whatever, fuck him, but it’s actually kinda depressing at this point.

– Brandon Saad got his 300th and 301st points tonight, and on this Valentine’s Day this guy FUCKS. A shorthanded goal, a 76 CF%, be still my heart.

– Kane and Toews continued their Fuck You tour. Kane had three points, including the first goal which arguably changed the entire trajectory of the game because it came late in the first, and it seemed to energize them since they dominated the second period. Kane to Koekkoek to Toews in the second was probably the prettiest goal, but Caligula’s was no slouch either and set the tone for the second (namely, that the Hawks were going to kick their ass for 20 minutes). All around, a good night for the top line.

– Slater Koekkoek actually didn’t play terribly tonight. Again, you know I don’t want to admit that, but it’s true. He had an assist and a 68 CF% (SO CLOSE to making the joke), and generally was not offensive to the eyes or causing your face to melt in horror.

– Look, he’s not an important part of the organization nor does he have much history (or much future) here, but it’s cool that Chris Kunitz has played 1000 games, and the Hawks did their best in marking the occasion and being generally nice about it. Thumbs up all around.

So it was a good bounce-back game after the ignominious end of the streak against Boston. There’s some more shitty teams coming up over the next week and a half, and the conference remains a weird clusterfuck so who knows! Onward and upward…

Photo credit: NHL.com

Everything Else

Game #56 – Wings 2, Hawks 5: Sometimes Things Can Just Rock

By Sam Fels 2221 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

I had an argument with a musician friend a while back. He’s a touch on the hipster side. I told him I had just seen The Kills live. He asked, “What’s the deal with them?” I wasn’t sure what he meant. “Y’know, what’s the deal? What do they mean? What’s going on there?” Finally I told him that not every song or band has to have a deeper meaning or texture to them. Some things just rock or make you dance or make you feel good.

I’m fairly sure this seven-game winning streak doesn’t mean anything. You can’t give up 40+ shots to the Canucks and Red Wings and convince anyone you’re a team that anyone should locate a giveable fuck about. There’s probably an ugly market-correction coming. It could be next week for all we know, rendering all of March pointless. Or it could come later. Maybe it won’t come at all because hockey is dumb and weird.

But at the moment, it’s fun! It makes us feel good, at least most of us. It’s certainly more entertaining to watch. So I don’t want to stare at it too hard at the moment. That’s for another time. Because money, love, success, these things come and go. But wins over Detroit, those never get old.

Let’s do it…

The Two Obs

-I want to start with Dylan Strome. He was my subject on Friday, because if there’s a legitimate point to the rest of the season it’s that we want to see signs of what’s to come from new places. And at least in the first period, and flashes in the rest, Strome was making plays all over the ice. We’ve seen his presence in front of the net, we’ve seen a pretty lethal shot, but the last two games we’ve seen the vision that was the main billing when he was drafted. He only racked up two assists but on another day could have had four, and it’s that kind of playmaking that makes you really excited about what’s to come. He has the ability to make the pass/play that only few can see, or conjure something out of nothing. That’s 30 points in 32 games as a Hawk for him.

-Let’s stick with Strome, because the Wings second goal was another example of what’s not working for the Hawks’s defensively. And this isn’t to single out Strome. Niklas Jensen skates out of the corner along the boards toward the blue line with the puck, with Strome on him. But because Strome isn’t quick, Jensen gets a step. Kahun is covering the point-man, but sees that Strome is beat. But there’s no communication, so they neither switch not stick with their man, and Jensen has a path to the middle of the ice to find Gustav “That’s Good” Nyquist, and we get Cam Ward looking behind him.

There are a few sticking points for me. First of all, this shit is still happening and all it would involve is more communication. Second, Strome is always going to be hard up in some of these due to footspeed. If he were instructed to to play a little softer, keeping things to the outside, and not worry about trying to win a race, it would be fine. Jensen skating away from the net along the boards isn’t really a problem. It’s when you’re trying to apply high-pressure that it becomes so.

Under the old, more zonal system, when a player got beat and someone else had to cover for him, he knew the area he had to recover to. He didn’t have to worry about players moving around. He would have must moved to the point while Kahun dealt with Jensen. And it’s not just Strome, The Hawks just don’t have the speed to do what they’re being asked, because they’ll lose most of these races. It’s akin to someone getting broken down off the dribble in basketball. Someone has to help and then someone else is open and then it’s a mess.

The Hawks can’t go back now, but when it’s on the outside the Hawks can play a little more off, or softer, or more toward the middle, whatever term you want. They don’t need to chase to the boards, because they’re too slow anyway. Right now, any team with a modicum of talent and scouting knows that all they have to do is get possession down low, skate out toward the blue line, have the point-man crash down at the same time, and the Hawks are suddenly wasted and can’t find their way home.

-The only Hawks on the plus side of the possession-ledger were Erik Gustafsson and Slater Koekkoek. I said it didn’t make any sense.

-But hey, they won without scoring a power play goal. So that’s like, something.

-People, we have found a blue line worse than the Hawks’! Niklas Kronwall dies like four years ago and it’s just wonderful that the Wings are making noise about re-signing him. He’s 38, and in hockey years he’s 125. Dude got smoked by Dominik Kahun repeatedly.

-Speaking of Kahun, I think you’ll know the Hawks are ready to be good again when their third line is something like Caggiula-Kampf-Kahun. And he’d be a real weapon down there. Another effective European scouting. Maybe the Hawks should import their European scouts to the pro scouting staff.

Ok, that’s enough. Seven is better than six.

Everything Else

Game #53 – Hawks vs. Wild Preview/Swingin’ Party: If You’re Gonna Insist…

By Sam Fels 1900 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 19-24-9   Wild 26-22-3

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBC (WHAT?!)

GOIN’ CRAZY OUT DERE BY DA LAKE: Zone Coverage MN

Whatever it is the Hawks are now, and it’s certainly been entertaining the past couple weeks if hardly artful, heads into St. Paul this evening to back up the what-have-ya in Buffalo last night. They’ll meet a Wild team that has an even more ridiculous back-to-back, coming home from losing in Dallas last night and only having to traverse essentially the length of the country in a night. Again, artful is not something you’d count on tonight from either side. So what a wonderful piece of programming for NBC to put across from Lakers-Warriors, huh?

Due to last night’s loss, the Wild handed the last automatic playoff spot in the Central back to the Stars, which they’ve been passing back and forth to each other like a handmade bowl, and slipped into the first wildcard spot. They have a three-point clearance on the Canucks, who are the first outside the cutting line. It’s been a  roller-coaster season for the Wild, who lost five in a row around Christmas to drop out of the playoffs altogether, then won four of five, and then have gone .500 in the 10 games since. Which is probably exactly what they are.

It’s not what you’d normally expect from a Boudreau-led outfit, as this is the best defensive team in the league in terms of chances and shots they surrender. As always with the Wild, they just don’t have enough front-line talent to bag in the goals. They’re 26th in goals per game, and 25th in shooting-percentage.This is never going to be a team that outshoots its percentage, not until it gets some more firepower. Missing Matt Dumba is huge, both on the power play and at evens, as he gets them up the ice better than anyone and can score from the blue line, which they don’t have anyone else to do.

Not that it seems like new GM Paul Fenton gets it, with the recent bewildering trade of Nino Neiderreiter for Victor Rask. Neiderreiter may not have put up the hard numbers to get anyone tumescent, but he was one of the best possession players in the league for years and had an acute case of snakebite this year. If you’re going to move him, you move him for someone who actually dents twine on occasion. Rask sets off toxic alarms everywhere he goes, and that’s all he does. Other additions around the edges like Pontus Aberg and Brad Hunt don’t really move the needle. The addition of Rask jumbled the lineup as well, moving Charlie Coyle back to a wing when he finally looked somewhat comfortable at center, and bestowing upon Parise the honor of looking at Rask confusedly, trying to figure out what in the actual fuck he’s doing. At least Coyle and Jordan Greenway have meshed nicely with Eric Staal on the top line.

The Hawks will get Alex Stalock tonight, after Dubnyk went last night. The latter really hasn’t been all that good this year, and has benefitted far more from the defensive work of the team in front of him than vice versa. Stalock hasn’t done either.

Speaking of goalies needing help. Collin Delia will get the start, and since his initial splash he’s been just this side of rancid. Sure, he’s getting no help, as the Hawks routinely are giving up shot totals that start with a “4.” But the last time Delia gave up less than three was December 29th, and you can’t hope that Patrick Kane is going to outscore that kind of surrender (even though he has of late). Delia has had a nice long break to reset, not playing since January 20th. This is still an audition for Delia to vault himself onto the roster for sure next year, whether as backup or not, but he’s not going to do that looking behind him four times a game.

Any other changes will be small. Maybe Koekkoek in for Dahlstrom or Forsling, though unlikely. Maybe Perlini in for Kunitz or Hayden, though unlikely.

Given how free-scoring the Hawks have been of late, this is a challenge. The Wild don’t give up much at all, and the Hawks’ two wins over them were basically goalie wins. The Islanders were able to keep the Hawks down in a way that the Caps and Sabres were not, and it’s a similar style. Mikko Koivu has been a particular annoyance to Jonathan Toews for his entire career, and were that to continue that quiets the big gun of the Hawks in Kane. Probably where most lies tonight.

The idea the Hawks can get back into it all is still ridiculous, but if they’re going to go on a run it’s right here. The Wild are nothing impressive, and the Oilers less so. The Canucks again are not anything special, and the Red Wings are worse than the Hawks. The Devils, Senators, and Ducks all appear on the slate in February, as do the Avalanche and Stars, teams the Hawks have handled earlier in the year. If they’re going to do something stupid, it’ll happen now.

 

Game #53 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

That Dirty Little Word

By Adam Hess 2408 0

Here in the middle of the NHL All-Star Break, I find myself in a familiar place as last year – we’re 51 games into the Blackhawks’ season, and I’m about to talk about how they should probably tank. No, really, click this link and I literally wrote about the tank last year at the same 51 game mark. Funny how these things have a way of, erm, working out. At least I get another chance to use that ridiculous photoshop I made last year.

When I did this last year, I was basically contemplating an impossible. The Blackhawks were probably a bit too far out of the running for last place to make a true run at it, and even then they ended the season with the 7th-best lottery odds and actually ended up getting jumped and ended up picking 8th. They did address the main need area of the blue line with their pick of Adam Boqvist, and his ceiling appears to be rather high.

This year, the potential for “tanking” is much higher, because the Hawks are a measly two points ahead of the last place tie between the Ottawa Senators and New Jersey Devils. The problem is there are five other teams who can make that claim as well, and three others that are only six points ahead of the Sens/Devils. That being said, our local idiots have played at least one more game than every other team below them in the standings, and three more than the Devils (who boatraced them last week, lest we forget), so the case for them being the worst team in the league and the front runner for the last place sweepstakes is not a hard one to make, though Detroit has a case as well considering they’re tied with the Hawks through 51 games played themselves.

The situation is eerily similar to last year as well. If I wrote the following today, it would still apply , but I assure you that this cut and paste from the article referenced above:

The Crawford situation has become a lose-lose for the Blackhawks. Crow’s health is obviously the most important thing, and you don’t want to rush him back and risk anything going wrong in the future because he is going to be the key to this team contending in the years to come. And we’re seeing how well things are going without him – you have two dudes who never spent significant time in the NHL trying each game to not play as bad as they did last game. So you don’t want to rush Crow back, but without him you’re up shit’s creek without a paddle.

Then you also have the question of whether Crawford coming back this year at all is really even worth it, even if you don’t rush it. We’ve already seen reports that he might miss the whole season, so it may not be a stretch to say that the Hawks bringing him back at all could be a form of rushing him back. And even if he does come back and squeeze you into a playoff spot, is it really going to be worth playing those extra games just to more than likely get bounced by Nashville or God forbid WINNIPEG? Even if your draft lottery odds are the longest shot, that’s better chance at the apparently generational talent of Rasmus Dahlin than zero.

Clearly Rasmus Dahlin is not available this year, but insert Jack Hughes – or Kaapo Kakko if that’s your fancy – in for him (and maybe remove generational, cuz Hughes is good but certainly no McDavid/Eichel/Matthews) and it’s current. The Hawks are in a really nasty spot with Crawford and it’s arguably worse this year than it was last year, because now we’re in round two of a serious concussion problem. He’s been skating already so there’s a decent chance he returns, but as the podcast crew talked about this week he probably isn’t giving you anything more than half of the remaining games if he does come back, and even then he hasn’t had the kind of season that would see him carry them back into the playoff hunt.

Who has that kind of season is Collin Delia, who’s posted a .923 save percentage in his 10 games this year, doing so behind a defense so bad that even with that impressive save rate he still has a 3.oo GAA. If Delia proves to ultimately be a franchise goalie, then him de-railing any kind of last place finish race would definitely be okay by me. That being said, we probably won’t really know quite yet if he is a franchise goalie, even if he does help them go on some kind of run and keeps them well out of last place this year. So that’s a bit of a Sophie’s Choice for us in the pro-tank crowd – do we prefer the potential franchise goalie plays bad to help secure a franchise 1C, or do we prefer Delia ruin our chances at a franchise 1C even if he won’t ultimately be a franchise goalie? If you have a firm answer to that, I envy you.

Further complicating things is the simple fact that you can’t coach a team to tank – though Coach Cool Youth Pastor running this man-to-man system with a roster not nearly fast enough to do it properly is about as close to doing so you’ll find. Despite the system, Colliton can’t convince Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews or Alex DeBrincat to stop being extremely good at hockey, and he certainly can’t tell anyone else not to try. Even if most of these players are not long for the roster if this franchise is going to return to competing, they’re still auditioning for NHL jobs either here or elsewhere and they owe it to themselves to play well. On top of that, a lot of this team is young and we still need to see what we have in them – Dylan Strome, Henri Jokiharju, and Delia are all examples of this. So we need them at their best.

So it comes down to if Stan Bowman is going to ultimately admit that everything he and McD have tried to force feed us this year about this team competing was just a bunch of bullshit. It’s kind of started already, but they’ll never come out and explicitly say “actually this roster sucks ass and we wanted it this way,” and they certainly won’t cop to signing shitty players in an effort to give Joel Quenneville enough rope to hang himself – which, based on what we’ve seem from this team since Q was fired in favor of CCYP, he didn’t even truly manage to do.

And if Bowman does decide to that he’s going to sell off what he can in order to maximize lottery odds, what does he really have to sell? Do you really think shipping Erik Gustafsson out of here is going to be the final straw that bottoms out this team? Has Chris Kunitz really brought enough to the table for this team to such when he leaves (the answer is no, they’ll actually get better with that)? If you can even convince Cam Ward to leave, and convince some team to take him, does that make the Hawks chances of winning the games he would’ve played that much higher?

So yeah – personally I think that tanking, in whatever form the Hawks might be able to do so, is the best way forward for this year’s Hawks. They have a decent crop of forwards locked up for the future, but there’s no 1C of the future here, so Jack Hughes is more than welcome. Even if you end up with Kakko, that’s an improvement for the future and he might even wind up as this year’s Patrick Laine.

The thing is, like last year, there is no clear and obvious way to go about “tanking” that really results in a tank, because outside of the unrealistic Kane trade that Rose talked about on Wednesday, you’re not shipping out much talent worth anything. So, like last year, we’re almost stuck hoping that the team ends up bad enough – and the teams below them string enough wins together – to have the Hawks end up with the highest possible lottery chances, and then we again hope and pray for the ping pong balls to favor us. It’s – still – the good ol’ hockey game.

Everything Else

The Question No One Wants to Ask: Should They Trade Patrick Kane?

By Rose Rankin 3957 0

Even with winning the last two games, I think it’s safe to say that this season is in the toilet and the possibility of the Hawks going on some insane run to squeak into the playoffs is rather low. The players will of course never say as much because, one, they’re going to keep repeating what they’re told to say, and two, I’m sure they’re not actually trying to be awful and would like to go on an insane run.

The front office will probably remain a little more subtle about it, although Stan Bowman’s latest comments about how they’ll “be better a year from now than we are now and two years from now” definitely belie the One Goal bullshit and reveal they know this season is a lost cause at this point.

So if we’re living in reality, and it’s clear the rebuild is necessary and not some on-the-fly nonsense, it’s time to evaluate what that rebuild actually entails, and not just the merits of whether or not to tank for a draft pick. I’m talking about something else: because to rebuild something you have to knock it down first, and that means the Hawks should look at trading Patrick Kane.

But Rose!, you’re saying. That’s insanity and he’s their best player and he’s part of the core and you’re a fucking lunatic and HOW COULD YOU SAY THAT. Calm down. This is a thought exercise around a move that probably won’t happen but maybe isn’t as disastrous as it initially seems. Let’s explore this together.

A Dose of Realism

As we’ve covered and as everyone basically knows, Patrick Kane is having a career year. As of this writing, he was leading the Hawks in points (by a wide margin), leading the team in goals, and his shooting percentage is the highest it’s been since his Hart-winning 2015-16 season. He’s also in the top ten league-wide for points and goals, and he’s the Hawks’ only representative at the All-Star game this weekend. Yes, his possession numbers are underwater but that’s never been his strong suit and my god, did you see Artem Anisimov on his line all those games?

On top of the numbers, there’s no reason to think this can’t carry over for a couple more seasons. Kane just turned 30, so undoubtedly the clock is ticking. But he implemented some new training regimen this offseason that apparently is working for him (it was described by another player in the article where I read about it as “jedi shit”), and we know Kane loves the adulation and the high of scoring (probably the high from other things as well but that’s none of my business). When he cups his hand to his ear to egg on the crowd or does his fist pump move, you can see him feeding on that energy. That’s why it’s also blatantly obvious when his give-a-shit meter is at –12.

And that meter has been pretty damn low for a lot of games, not just this season but over the last couple. It’s entirely possible Kane would welcome a trade to a team that’s actually a contender or could be one. What if, say, the Hurricanes or Sabres came calling? Or what if Erik Karlsson and Joe Pavelski both walk from San Jose after the season and the Sharks find themselves with $11 million? Or what if, now that hell has definitively frozen over and Pete Chiarelli has been fired into the sun, the Oilers start making smart decisions? None of these are necessarily LIKELY to happen, but just consider them. I highly doubt Patrick Kane feels such undying devotion to Rocky Wirtz and Jon McDonough that he wouldn’t even entertain the possibility of playing his last good years somewhere where it’ll matter and could result in some more hardware.

All Games, All Price Levels

But the front office would be insane to do it, right? Ticket sales would tank! Well, I’ve got news for you in case you haven’t been listening: judging by all those GREAT SEATS STILL AVAILABLE plugs from Foley and Olczyk, ticket sales are already tanking. And with how this season is going to end, there is nothing here currently to stop that process.

You know what does help? Being good. Consistently good. Even unexpectedly good. And the most likely way the Hawks are going to get there is by admitting the problem and rebuilding. Yes, they could try to make the right trades, add pieces, wait for Adam Boqvist, and close their eyes tight and hope. But how has that been working out so far? There are still issues like Seabrook’s contract and all the things we’ve pondered and dissected for lo these many months. Which brings us back to the inevitable need for a rebuild and the fact that Kane is the movable piece.

Denial, Anger, Bargaining…

Now for the Hawks, this would obviously demolish their scoring capability in the short term (at least). But if this is the way forward, it’s time to get a bunch of puzzle pieces and see if they fit. And Kane’s 10.5 mildo a year can buy a shitload of puzzle pieces. The other big contracts on the books are much less likely to be moved, for all the reasons you already know: Seabrook’s is an albatross, Toews probably does have undying devotion, Keith appears not to give a flying fuck about anything, etc. That leaves a willing Patrick Kane as the most sensible way to exchange a big contract for many small ones.

And it doesn’t have to be all at once. In this scenario, they should trade him this year at the deadline, but given the sullen paralysis the organ-I-zation appears to be in (five stages of grief and all that), trading him in the offseason seems likelier. In either situation, the Hawks would have time and space to tinker with whatever they got for Kane in the trade, and add guys on the cheap during the 2019-20 season.

With the youngsters coming to the defense, they might as well land a bunch more for the forward corps. In full-on rebuild mode it would no longer be necessary to get a solid top-pairing defenseman, so no more even pretending to pay Karlsson or Dougie Hamilton or anyone else to come here. Boqvist, Mitchell, and Beaudin, in some combination or all three, would be playing on Madison St. with zero-fucks-to-give Keith and Immovable Nachos as VETERAN PRESENCE. Maybe one of two of them gets packaged for a deal of equally talented youngins’. Toews would play the elder statesman role on the offensive side, and they could see what randos and kids can do with Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome for the next year.

This would also open up roster space for guys already in the Hawks system, read: Dylan Sikura. Oh, and remember Victor Ejdsell? What the hell ever happened to him? (He was hurt, yes, but I mean in the larger sense.) The Ice Hogs are bottom feeders right now too, so anyone in Rockford with any talent isn’t likely to develop in any meaningful way, so let’s see if they can do anything with the top club. And if they can’t, move them out. Then the pipeline is open to start gathering the talent and assets necessary for the Hawks to be consistently good again in a few years’ time.

Shut Up, Lana

I know, you understand how rebuilds work. But any logic or sensibility in this plan is overshadowed by the visceral feeling of loss. The loss of a player who, for better AND for worse, is beloved by a huge contingent of fans. And the loss of any pretense that the Hawks are still the same team we’ve known and loved these past 10+ years. Sure, some of the core would still be here, but without Patrick Kane this isn’t the same team, and there would be no chance of even pretending this is the same organization that won three Cups in five years. Quenneville’s firing was the wake-up call to that; Kane leaving would be the final death knell of any remaining argument.

That’s what hurts the most. Knowing beyond a shadow of a doubt that a golden age has ended and that mediocrity and, at best, normalcy are stretching out interminably before us. But it’s coming sooner or later. Something has to change significantly or else this team and this situation isn’t going to get any better. And nostalgia shouldn’t stand in the way of progress—the good times can be remembered and celebrated, but if we ever want them to come back, this road is coming.