Baseball

Series Preview – Pirates vs. Cubs: One Should Die At Home

By Sam Fels 1415 0

vs.

RECORDS: Pirates 65-82   Cubs 78-68

GAMETIMES: Friday 3:05, Saturday/Sunday 1:20

TV: Friday/Saturday NBCSN, WGN Sunday

MOURNING THE DEAD: Bucs Dugout

SERIES PREVIEW POSTS

Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs

Pirates Spotlight: Bryan Reynolds

The optimistic out there, and let’s face it, they still make up a large portion of Cubdom because they had to for so long, will tell you that returning home for 10 games is where the Cubs finally charge. They’ve been great at home all season, they’re playing two doormats before welcoming The Red Menace for a true NL Central Main Event, and if it’s ever going to turn around, it’s now.

Those of you like me can’t help but feel the winds of 2004. The Cubs returned home for four with the lowly Reds, still the wild card in their grip even after the disaster at Shea. They promptly lost three of four in the most pathetic way possible, and the season was over and basically the whole thing was broken for two more years. You feel a similar pivot point here, where if the Cubs don’t use these 10 games to springboard into at least a stranglehold on the wildcard spot, and really launching themselves up to and past the Cardinals, the effects could be felt for years.

So it starts with a team already frayed and dead, the Pittsburgh Pirates. They’re fighting with each other, they’re fighting with their coaches, they hate everything, they throw at people, but mostly they just want to go home. This season has been utterly miserable for them since like May 1st, the organization seems directionless, and any hope for the future is curbed by the knowledge that Bob Nutting won’t let that future happen.

Somehow, the Bucs have managed a 6-5 record in September, though it’s buffeted by getting four games with the similarly dead Giants. They lost two of three to the Cardinals last weekend, and that’s the absolute minimum requirement here. They’ll start with Steven Brault, who handcuffed the Cubs a couple weeks ago for seven innings, so get your bomb shelters ready for the hot takes that will be spilling should he do it again. James Marvel will only be making his second career start, and we saw how well that went with Bolanos in San Diego earlier this week. The Cubs have cuffed around Trevor Williams a couple times this year, so there’s your hope.

But mostly what the Cubs have to watch out for is their rotation disintegrating beneath Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Jose Quintana fell apart when Ben Zobrist couldn’t locate Nico Hoerner for the second straight night. Jon Lester has been more bad than good for months now and melted down against the Brewers on Sunday. The Cubs just can’t have any of that this weekend. They’ll have to duck around Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman, who are the hottest Pirates at the moment. Josh Bell clearly just wants the season to end, as he’s been average for a while now. But you don’t have to go far to picture him with a big homer somewhere over these three days.

The Cubs need their starters because we’ve seen the pen is still a mess without Craig Kimbrel, and it wasn’t all that orderly when he was around anyway. Once again, Steve Cishek has been turned into paste, and Wick has been adventure-prone of late (and is probably down for today after yesterday’s theatrics). Get runs off this team that doesn’t want to be there, and only ask your pen for six-to-eight outs or something. It’s not hard, but the Cubs have made it look exceedingly so for four months now.

These 10 games are about way more than the 10 games. The entire direction of the organization is in the balance. Maybe the Cubs will finally play like it, or we’ll know something has been truly rotten in Denmark for a while.

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Pirates: At Least It’s Over

By Sam Fels 1201 0

Game 1 Box Score: Pirates 3, Cubs 2

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 2, Pirates 0

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 7, Pirates 1

It was inches away from being a sweep, and coming home with a 5-5 road trip, which would not have been acceptable given the circumstance but wouldn’t have felt like some punitive prison punishment that this has turned into. And yet, despite all their cock-ups and idiocy, the Cubs end this roadie in first place, though having to share it. And they’ll return home for six games, where they’re 12-3 since the break. And while they do that, the Brewers and Cardinals will be throwing their fake teeth and harvested manure at each other, so if the Cubs continue to play at home as they have they’ll be gaining games on someone. Thanks to the balloon-handedness of the division, and despite their own nincompoop ways, they still have it all in their own hands.

Right then, let’s…

-I guess we’ll start with Friday night’s what-have-ya. First off, you should never be muzzled by Joe Musgrove like that unless you’re intentionally trying to do so. The Cubs didn’t much look interested Friday night, which is a luxury they’ve lost with all the other games they’ve spent trying to light their own farts.

But hey, Maddon even got away with letting Tony Kemp bat, against a lefty no less, and you get the lead. There was sone consternation about bringing Brandon Kinztler straight from the DL into this bonfire, but what choice was there? Cishek and Kimbrel are hurt. Strop is broken, and along with Wick was part of the monk-immolation in Philly the night before. Really, the only mistake was Kintzler not throwing the ball down the middle to some rookie hitting .196 and seeing just exactly how far he could hit it.

-There was also daggers being tossed at David Bote, and the whole rigamarole about using Bryant as a defensive replacement is a touch weird. Bote is just unlucky to get another ball like that, and one if he even fields cleanly he might not have a play on. This is just sequencing again. Whatever the faults of Bote, defensively he’s been just fine, and more so at third. Proclaiming him a plague on society is overly strong.

-The Cubs didn’t look all that more interested against Steven Brault either yesterday afternoon, but  the Pirates can’t even take two games in a row that they’re being handed. Lester made some huge pitches and dodged and weaved out of trouble, and while he’s not what he was and probably won’t be again, he still can pull these efforts out when the Cubs need them most.

-Use Chatwood for multiple innings more often. Thank you for your time.

-Kris Bryant to the rescue again on Saturday, but it still feels like he’s having a weird season. Given the baseball and what others are doing, shouldn’t he be heading for a career-high in homers too? Or anywhere near it? Or are the 39 in his MVP year the aberration? His slugging is the second-highest of his career, so you can’t complain, it just seems like it would have been more.

-Since July 1, Jose Quintana has been the seventh best pitcher in the NL in terms of fWAR and FIP. But keep stabbing yourself in the heart about Eloy Jimenez and his .293 OBP.

-I would like to think getting to do something as goofy as play in Williamsport for a night and hang out with the kids will remind this team what it’s like to have fun again, but I became way too cynical about these sorts of things way too long ago to truly mean it.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From A’s: We Know This Part…

By Sam Fels 1266 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, A’s 5

Game 2 Box Score: A’s 11, Cubs 4

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 10, A’s 1

I know what you’re thinking. If you’ve been around these parts for any length of time, you’re probably either ready to label me with or for me to project that I’ve motherfucked the Cubs into brilliance with my declaration that they weren’t going anywhere after that beer fart in St. Louis. And it’s close, but the Cubs have to take it on the road before we can officially declare that. We know they’re good at home. They were brilliant this time around, going 5-1 against a division competitor and a playoff contender from the American League. They could have their biggest lead in the division all season when it’s all said and done. Now if they could actually get things moving on this 10-game road trip, with nary an impressive opponent on it, we might be on to something.

Let’s…

-I guess I’ll start with Ian Happ. I’ve never been a huge believer in Colonel Happ, but he always seduces you with that swing and his discipline. At this point, the Cubs don’t have much to lose by playing him at second most. We know Kemp and Bote just aren’t going to hit, and you can mitigate some of Happ’s defense with shifting. Five hits in the series, and even more hard contact. Even when Happ was struggling he still worked an AB, and the Cubs need more of that. If it works over the next month then you don’t have to hinge anything on Ben Zobrist, which we probably shouldn’t be anyway.

-Monday was an adventure, but with this state of the pen I don’t know what else it’s going to be. The Cubs are going to need the rotation to pick it up for a week or two, even more than they have, and get to the 7th inning consistently. From there you can just throw the masses out to get six to eight outs, as messy as it’s going to be.

-Speaking of which, Duane Underwood is going to get himself a couple more looks before Kimbrel comes back. He’s the only one with options so he probably has to go down when that happens. It was a great debut, but some salt grains required. He’s been good as a reliever in Iowa, and he’s another guy who at least throws hard, which the Cubs haven’t had enough of. That doesn’t mean he should be in high-leverage situations tomorrow, but again, what do the Cubs have to lose here? I don’t need more David Phelps in my life, and anything that gets Cishek rest at this point should be welcome.

-As for Jon Lester, there’s not much reason to panic as long as the other four starters keep doing this. As we’ve said, his margin for error is so thin, and now it’s a wonder if he can get inside on righties at all. But as a fifth starter, fine. We’ll deep dive on this at a later date.

-Castellanos is a danger to himself in the field, but he seems to do everything right with a helmet on. And there is something he’s brought to the club with his energy and bounce, which is very welcome in August.

-Anyone bitching about Quintana now?

-Is this Hendricks’s best stretch in his career? Seven starts, 10 earned runs, 37 Ks, 11 walks. He’s almost automatic right now.

-I’ll say I was there the night the Cubs had three catchers on the field, and none of them were Willson Contreras.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – Brewers vs. Cubs: More Fun In The Detention Hall

By Sam Fels 1425 0

vs.

RECORDS: Brewers 57-53   Cubs 57-51

GAMETIMES: Friday-Sunday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Friday and Saturday, WGN Sunday

PAT LISTACH ’92 FOREVER: Brew Crew Ball

Whatever the hell this is continues on the Northside for the weekend, as the Brewers and Cubs will bash their heads together and see if anything comes out this time. Most likely, they and the Cardinals in Oakland will continue to stare at each other, wondering how they got here but knowing for sure there’s no way they can leave. This is where they all belong, fighting over a busted rubber ball while the rest of the baseball world tries to decide if they’re adorable or sad or both.

We’ll start with the Cubs this time, who responded to New Toy Day with Nick Castellanos and Tony Kemp last night by having all the enthusiasm of a biopsy in an 8-0 loss to Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals, completing a pure acid-vomit of a road trip at 3-6. It was the pivotal stretch of the season, and the Cubs comprehensively failed it. But thanks to the forgiving/bumbling nature of everyone else, they left tied for first and they return only a game back, because nothing is ever truly dead (or alive) in the NL Central.

They’ll bank on their home form, which has been great, and where they were last seen going 7-2 out of the break to convince far too many of us that things were swinging up. They won’t be here that often in the month, so they have to make this count if they’re indeed serious about making this season anything other than a dirge and a middle finger to their owner. That is to be determined.

The headline, other than the debuts of the trade acquisitions at Wrigley, is that Cole Hamels will return on Saturday. Hamels had been dominant before going on the IL, maybe the Cubs best starter over the season, and perhaps the sight of a prideful veteran can crack this team out of whatever haze it’s been blasting itself in the face with for the past two months. Hope springs eternal.

The Brewers spent the interim between the two I-94 summits playing three nail-biters with the Oakland A’s. They lost two of them, one in extras and one yesterday when Josh Hader was taken to San Jose by Matt Chapman in the 8th. It was the first time Hader had pitched three days in a row, and now Craig Counsell will be putting that tactic back in the “Bad Idea” box, never to be unearthed again.

They’ll send Zack Davies out there again, with his last start being the weekly Kyle Schwarber-has-figured-it-out game. Gio Gonzalez will also be around to befuddle the Cubs for absolutely no reason other than the gods hate you and you’ll never truly love or be loved because of it. Adrian Houser tossed five good innings in Oakland on Tuesday and will wrap this up on Sunday for the Brew Crew.

We’ve been saying this for two months, but there’s no reason the Cubs can’t use this as a springboard for more. And they probably have to, because the A’s are hardly pushovers and weird things happen in Philadelphia before they get decapitated in Pittsburgh. They have the advantage in every starters matchup here, and you would hope as long as you keep Christian Yelich from levitating and turning various colors, it’s an offense you can keep in check. And the Cubs did last weekend, they just could stop going up to the plate with a flute up their nose. Castellanos definitely gives the lineup more length, so maybe today Baez or Contreras can take one pitch or maybe Rizzo can emerge from his slumber. Fucking anything. It’s been so hard to watch. We’d just like to feel again, thanks.

CHIMI-FUCKING-CHANGAS.

Baseball

F***in’ Quintana, Man…

By Sam Fels 1450 0

There’s always a Cub, for however long a period of time during a season, is that portion’s goat or target of ire or villain. For the past few years, Jason Heyward has taken that belt for most of the time. John Lackey was on there for a bit. Addison Russell probably has permanent claim to it. Kyle Schwarber has been there. The pen as a whole, sometimes Maddon, this could go on for a while.

At the moment, it’s Jose Quintana. Some of that is his doing, as his last six starts haven’t been particularly pretty. And some of that isn’t, as it’s been accentuated by Eloy Jimenez’s game-winning homer (even though Eloy wouldn’t have a place to play here but whatever), or that the money saved on Q’s contract was used to buy Yu Darvish, who is only just now seemingly getting going, or that Darvish’s injury problems led to the option being picked up on Cole Hamels, which stripped cash from everything else. None of that has anything to do with Quintana, but he’s also not going to duck all of the annoyance people have about some or all of that. It isn’t fair, but no one deals in fair in sports. Especially when you have bullhorns like David Kaplan fanning the flames for their own enjoyment.

So what’s the deal, here? What’s been going on with Quintana in his last six starts?

I don’t know if it is important, but I think it’s important, to point out that in the eight starts before this stretch, Q carried a 2.34 ERA, with just a tick below 3-to-1 K/BB ratio. He was the Cubs best starter for a few trips through the rotation there. While he might not be that guy, he’s also not this guy. Perhaps the truth is right in the middle, though I tend to believe it’s closer to those eight good starts than these six bad ones.

So we’ll split the season right at May 25th, between those two stretches. I’ve remarked in series wraps that he’s gone away from his change of late, and that is true. He was throwing it 11 or 12% of the time in April and May, and that’s down to nine in June. By strict counts, he would throw it between 12-15 times per game in the first half of this season completed, and he’s only done that once in the past six starts (at the Dodgers, and I don’t know if we should count anything that happens against that collection of mutants).

When Q doesn’t throw his change much, he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, which makes him pretty predictable. But the problem here is…that change-up hasn’t been very good of late. To wit…

In the season’s first 10 appearances, Q got 27% whiffs on the swings taken on the change. Since, that’s down to 9%. The fouls are up 12% too. Of the change-ups put in play, those first 10 appearances saw them only become line drives at a quarter of the time. In the past six starts, that’s doubled to 50%. Batters were hitting .294 off it then, which isn’t great. It’s .500 in this stretch, which REEL BAD. So did something happen to it?

According to BrooksBaseball.net, it has lost some of its horizontal movement, or what you might think of as “fade,” as on a change from a lefty it will fade away from righties or to the arm-side of Quintana. Here:

So in the early point of the season, he was getting five or six inches of fade, and is this last bit that’s down to four and a half or so. That’s certainly enough to keep the pitch on bats and on barrels of bats. It’s the same story with vertical movement, as the change is getting less drop than it was in his first 10 starts, and if your change isn’t sinking, that’s going to be a problem. And it has been.

You might think this has something to do with release point, but Q’s release point on it has bounced between 5.9 feet and 6.5 feet all season, so it’s hard to pinpoint on that. Same with his horizontal release point. So it could just be a feel thing. As far as how it all pans out, here’s the difference in locations between the two segments of the season with his change:

It’s not a huge difference, but it is a difference. From being consistently below the zone where you get weak contact and whiffs and fool people, it’s staying in the zone where it can still be reached and reached well.

This probably isn’t everything. Q has seen a slight dip in his velocity. Before the split on this, his fastball never averaged below 91.5 MPH. In the six starts after the split, it’s only been above that once. It’s not fallen off a table or anything, but the loss of dip and fade on his change could also coincide with a little less “finish” on his pitches. But that’s just a guess.

Hopefully it’s something in his mechanics and not something physical, and he can correct that to get his fastball back just a touch and a little more finish on the change. It doesn’t feel like it’s all that far away, but a few more starts like the last and it just might.

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Sweep Cardinals: Everybody Shut The Fuck Up

By Sam Fels 2488 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 4, Cardinals 0

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 6, Cardinals 5

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 13, Cardinals 5

Let’s get it right at the top here. Back in first place. Best winning percentage in the NL. Best run-differential in baseball. Won seven in a row. 16 of 20. It was utterly pointless to be trying to tear your heart out of your chest with your fingernail after nine games. Everyone has a bad nine games. Fuck, everyone has a bad 20 games. I understand the microscope is more focused at the start of a season. I understand it was an unpleasant winter and everyone already had the knives out and wanted to be the first to say, “I told you so.”

But it was always a good offense. Possibly great. It was always potentially a really good rotation, and one that survived an IL stint to Jon Lester. You have those two things, the pen doesn’t matter as much. The Cubs have six players with a wRC+ of 115 or higher. The only regulars who aren’t there are Schwarber, Zobrist and Descalso. And Schwarber’s is 129 over the past two weeks.

So yeah, I don’t want to hear it. This is a really good team, a team that is essentially the one that won 95 games last year and gets to use Yu Darvish and a healthy Kris Bryant. It’s been even able to carry a struggling Zobrist. They’re really good. Everyone on board.

Let’s do the thing:

The Two Obs

-I find it funny that it took Hendricks and Contreras about an inning or two to figure out that the Cardinals were trying to jump on The Cerebral Assassin early in at-bats, proceeded to cut through them like a daisy cutter, and yet the Cardinals never bothered to try anything else. Hendricks threw seven pitches in the 7th. Nine in the 8th. 10 in the 9th. Good thing they hired Shildt full-time, huh?

-Saturday, the right decision was definitely to walk Schwarber to get to Taylor Davis. That doesn’t mean Michael Wacha had to throw him a batting practice fastball that any competent profession baseball player is going to hurt. I thought the Cardinals were smart?

-Yu Darvish is Javy Vasquez. If you remember Little Game Javy, as Yankees fans so lovingly referred to him as, he had five or six different pitches, all of them effective. But it Javy’s world, and apparently Yu’s, no one should make contact on him. Which means he pitches that way, which means he misses, which means walks, which means problems. Until Yu starts pitching to contact and taking the strikeouts when they’re there, this is what you’re gong to get. He’s never had great control, but it’s within him, he simply chooses not to. Remember, before he got to Chicago the previous two seasons saw him carry a BB/9 under three. He’s at 7.44 this year. It has to stop.

-I don’t really care how the Cubs pen does it, but they’ve been among the best in baseball since the first week. And I don’t care. It’s a bullpen, it doesn’t have to make sense.

-This is the rotation the Cardinals are going to take us down with? Ok.

-Quintana wasn’t as vintage as he’s been this year, but he was able to muscle through it which is a really good sign. Also helps that the Cubs catch everything and play defense all over the field.

-Between Bryant, Heyward, and Baez, Cardinals fans aren’t going to know who to boo when the Cubs go down there later this month. And I’m fine with a team of villains.

Onwards…

 

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Stomp Some Guys: I See Your Sister In A Sunday Dress

By Sam Fels 1286 0

Game 1 Boxscore: Cubs 7 – Marlins 2 

Game 2 Boxscore: Cubs 4 – Marlins 0

Game 3 Boxscore: Cubs 6 – Marlins 0

I suppose, if I were just taking the Cubs words at face value, the last game of this series would be the kind of one they referenced at the end of last year or in spring training this year as the ones that got away from them last season. Where they lost focus or didn’t quite close out the past couple seasons like they did in 2016. They’ve said it, but I’m not sure how much I buy it when you put together 95 wins with a banged-up roster. But whatever, if they say it they probably believe it to an extent. So the Cubs didn’t let up, didn’t check out against a team full of future gym teachers and possibly current squeegee-men. Cole Hamels certainly wasn’t in any giving mood, and the Cubs have their first series sweep of the year and are looking at being .500 with a series win against Arizona.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-These are the kinds of trips through the rotation that the Cubs envisioned when this all started. Darvish still couldn’t quite there, as it should not take 96 pitches to get 17 outs against whatever is masquerading around as Marlins these days. But hey, it was only two runs. I don’t think I’m a big fan of him talking about maxing his velocity when he’s coming off an arm injury and what makes him special is the diversity of his pitches, but at this point I think we’re all just going to take the ride with him and be done with it.

-No such problems with Quintana and Hamels, who are as dialed in as it gets. Q spotted that change-up he’s been saying he wants to use more, though not as much as he probably will in the future. Hamels, being the savvy vet that he is, knew he could just pour everything into the strike zone and are this collection of extras to do their worst. Winner winner chicken dinner.

-The Cubs still haven’t gotten anything out of Bryant and Rizzo and are second in the NL in runs. Tell me why you’re paranoid again?

-While his signing was derided simply because it was the only one the Cubs made for the lineup this winter, Daniel Descalso is hell of an upgrade on Tommy La Stella so far. In fact, even if Ian Happ were to get hot I can’t quite figure out where he’d go right now anyway. And no, I don’t want to see him in center or right. Which means, as we thought all along, it might come down to a debate between him and Schwarber in left. But that’s not a problem for now.

-Contreras only had one hit today. What a bum.

-Please don’t make me start believing in David Bote. I’ve been here too many times.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Pirates: And There Was Much Rejoicing

By Sam Fels 1349 0

A series win. A very good start. These things were late to the party for the Cubs this season, but they’re here now. And while most of Cubdom seems intent on bending and turning and balancing to tear down the wins, the Cubs put up 10 runs on a very good starter in Jameson Taillon, survived what is a pretty good Pirates staff for two wins. If you thought they were going to get all the games back to .500 at once, I hate to explain how things work. It’s a process.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-Jose Quintana said he wanted to use his change-up more. We didn’t see that in Milwaukee, partly because he wasn’t around long enough and when he was he was mostly turning around to look in the distance. He threw 13 of them tonight, which was more than 10% of his offerings, he got six swings and four whiffs from it. Very encouraging. Of course, everything was working tonight. Dotting his fastball, getting the curve over. I suppose the real test is when something isn’t working. But hey, this is a good step.

-The Cubs are averaging over six runs per game and Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, haven’t really done dick. That’s encouraging.

-Kyle Schwarber has struck out in seven of his last eight ABs, which is less than encouraging. He’s getting pelted with breaking pitches, and he’s going over the top of them pretty much every time. That’s fine with lefties, but is less so when it comes from righties as it has the past two nights. But hey, it’s just a stretch of three games. Let’s not go nuts here.

-Len and JD were mentioning on the broadcast how much more Jason Heyward is using his legs in his swing. It’s quite apparent. Maybe that’s a real change.

-Cishek has appeared in half of the Cubs games, so at least we’re still on that pace. He should be dust by Labor Day.

-Something has been made about the Cubs’ pen scoreless streak, but to me it’s kind of horseshit because they did let inherited runners score last night. Earned runs for relievers is always something a bit misleading. And when they took the lead Monday to the wire, they had a touchdown lead at least to work with. Not that that’s stopped them from self-immolating before. Mighty oaks from little acorns, I guess.

-I think Joe Maddon was just cold.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Brewers: Now Is Not The Time

By Sam Fels 1268 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 1-5   Brewers 6-1

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: WGN Friday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

THE GOOD LAND: Brew Crew Ball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jose Quintana vs. Brandon Woodruff

Cole Hamels vs Corbin Burnes

Kyle Hendricks vs. Zach Davies

Probable Cubs Lineup

1. Ben Zobrist (S) RF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Javier Baez (R) SS
5. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
6. Willson Contreras (R) C
7. Albert Almora (R) CF
9. Jason Heyward (L) RF

 

Probably Brewers Lineup

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) SS
Everything is wrong. Everything is ruined. So why not face the team that’s given your whole front office and fanbase a psychosis when you’re at your absolute lowest? Maybe it’s a weird kind of immersion therapy. Have the booze nearby.
Despite how Cubs fans have acted all winter, the Brewers and Cubs were exactly as good as each other last year. In fact, the Brewers needed a historic finish over the last month to even catch the Cubs, rather than the Cubs “losing” it. But the difference in winter maneuvers is probably what has everyone on edge. The Brew Crew identified a weakness, catcher, and went and got just about the best possible solution to it in Yasmani Grandal (who at the moment has only succeeded in torpedoing my fantasy team, but that won’t last forever). And this wasn’t a bad lineup to begin with.
Of course, the Brewers main weapon is the bullpen. Josh Hader was so bored with just striking out everyone that he spent the first week seeing how long he could get away with throwing just fastballs. He threw his first breaking ball on Wednesday, after something like 48 straight fastballs. He’s striking out two per inning anyway. The Brewers won’t miss Cory Knebel when they just make Hader throw with his right hand on his off-days. Alex Wilson and Matt Albers are also carrying ridiculous strikeout rates. Jacob Barnes has been the only flashpoint so far out of there, and you can bet they’ll find more. It’s what they do. Knebel will be a miss, but if they’re the ones who end up with Craig Kimbrel, the self-defenestration count around town is going to quadruple.
I still don’t buy the Brewers rotation, but I suppose when it doesn’t have to do much more than four or five innings, you don’t have to buy it. Jimmy Nelson has yet to return and he’s something of the trump card. If he’s what he was, that gives them at least a genuine #2 starter in this league and a day off from throwing four innings for the pen. Brandon Woodruff impressed out of the pen last year, but he and Peralta’s record suggest they walk too many guys to ever be dominant. You’ll never convince me Jhoulys Chacin isn’t Jhoulys Chacin, and Zach Davies’s Kyle Hendricks impression has only ever looked good against the Cubs. The Brewers do the best they can to take their rotation out of the equation, but it has to sting at some point. At least that’s the hope.
None of this matters if Christian Yelich continues to be a Lantern. A 1.500 OPS so far on the season is pretty much everything you need to know. Mike Moustakas has also hit the ball hard when he’s hit it, and Lorenzo Cain is Lorenzo Cain. Jesus Aguilar has been wielding a pool noodle so far, but I’ll still hide behind the couch every time he’s up. Needles McGee in left also will come up with some annoying, game-changing homer at some point, which he’ll do against the Cubs until he’s 74 (though parts of him will remain in their 20s).
The Cubs are clearly not really equipped to deal with the Brewers at the moment. Jose Quintana has held a voodoo sign over the Brewers since switching sides of town, and he’ll get his first start of the year. Q looked good out of the pen to save Darvish last Saturday, and we’ll see if he means it about incorporating his change far more this season. Maddon’s biggest mistake last year might have been pulling Q in  Game 163 out of fear of a third trip through the lineup, ignoring the facts that Q held down the Brewers all year and he didn’t have a bullpen at that point. Good thing he doesn’t have a pen now and we can see what he’s learned.
The Cubs can claim that things will shake out better with this relief group, but there’s no reason to believe that. Other than Pedro Strop, none of these guys have a track record of sustained success, and it’s here last year where Carl Edwards Jr. broke on Labor Day. You’ll remember the previous inning, Anthony Rizzo had solved Hader for a homer that gave the Cubs the lead and felt like a defining, season-turning moment. Then Edwards turned his curve into performance art and the lead was immediately lost. He’s never recovered, and very well might not ever. There’s nowhere for Maddon to turn until Strop, who has been curiously held for saves that never come. Maybe stop with that?
This being baseball of course, the Cubs could march up there and sweep the Brewers because it’s April and it’s weird and why not? We could use it. Or the Brewers could really rub the Cubs’ nose in it and wouldn’t that make for a comfy home opener the next day? What you got to say then, Theo?