Everything Else

Game #35 – Devils 4 – Hawks 1: This Is Why The Devils Can Get Their Arms Around Me

By Sam Fels 2420 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

Not exactly how you begin a road trip. While I didn’t think the Hawks were particularly bad on Thursday, certainly not to the point with which they were unlucky, they needed a response tonight before a break and the rest of this trip. And they got one… it just came 20 minutes too late. And when you cough up a division game before this, you kind of lose your right to mail in one right before the Christmas break. The Hawks seemed to realize that in the 2nd, but that’s not good enough. You’re not going to claw three back against Cory Schneider the way he’s playing. And you’re especially not going to do it when Sharp and Sbarro can combine to do perhaps the worst Stadler And Waldorf On Ice in the history of time (a competition I would like to judge one day).

Let’s run through it:

The Two Obs

-Especially in a sport as closed off as hockey, it’s probably impossible to get to the middle of how a team that kind of needed this one tonight can come out so rotten as the Hawks did in the first. There must’ve been eight to ten turnovers in the first five minutes in their own zone. “highlighted” by Gustav Forsling with a beautiful centering pass to his own crease and then Panik with a layoff to Brian Boyle.

The easy way to go here is to lay it at the feet of Joel Quenneville, because obviously it’s the coaches job to get a team ready to play. If it is with him, it certainly not all with him. It’s a whole leadership thing. And this is where you’re free to wonder with the three lettered players–Toews, Keith, Seabrook–basically producing dick (except for Keith, really)–how much influence they might have right now. They have veteran cache, sure. But someone’s gotta take the blame for how often, on the road usually, this team just isn’t at the races. But we’ll circle back to this in a moment.

-What I can hang Q out to dry for, and frequently have and will continue to do so, is these bewildering lineup and deployment choices. How does Patrick Sharp go from a deserved healthy scratch to the second line with Toews with no in-between? Players notice that, and I’m sure a couple are wondering what they have to do to get such treatment.

Let’s go to the Devils 4th goal, and what was a back-breaker. The Hawks have some juice from the second, a two-goal deficit is at least doable, and then you get this from Sharp and Seabrook. While watching this, make note of where Murphy is and where Seabrook ends up:

Murphy is up on the play, as he should be as the Hawks push for another goal. And you want your defense to be active, but you don’t want them to be aggressively stupid, or suicidal. Seabrook is all the way up with two Devils behind him. Murphy is the one who’s pushing here and Seabrook has to play the free safety.

Of course, maybe this doesn’t matter if Patrick Sharp doesn’t execute the Ozzy Osbourne “Drop Pass To Nowhere” (leads to me). Good thing he was on the second line tonight.

-How does Jordan Oesterle go from four games in two months to the power play? Given what led to the penalty shot, this seems an even more valid question.

-Let’s keep going. Gustav Forsling sucks in his own end. I can’t put it lightly anymore. I’m not sure Jan Rutta is any better. So why are they starting a penalty kill you kind of have to have when you’re already down one? The one thing a kill can’t have is passes that go through the box. So of course it took Forsling all of six seconds to completely lose Palmieri behind him, and then be completely pointed the wrong way to turn into a goal-scoring bumper for the Devils.

-Right, so let’s circle back to the leadership thing again. Obviously, this blog and this writer has a complicated relationship with Patrick Kane. So the following is strictly on-ice. But if you had told me say even three years ago that when the Hawks are struggling and need a boost, it would be Kane who consistently provides it and Toews would just sort of have a vacant look on his face most of the night, I would have called you a filthy liar and then asked the bartend to cut you off if not outright remove you from the premises.

But that’s been the story. On a night where he could have easily chucked it, Kane spent the second period trying drag his team back into it. And this is hardly the first game, either this year, or last year, or the one before that, where he’s done it. Sure, there’s the whole difference of center-vs-wing, and the competition each play, and where they start. But this team needed a jolt and for someone to say “fuck this” and to try and come up with inspiration. Only one half of Daydream Nation did it.

-Remember when Brandon Saad was noticeable? Good times, those. Many laughs were had. A libation shared. I’m sad these are things we just reminisce about right now.

-Ok, that’s enough heading into the holiday. From all of us here, have a wonderful Christmas. And we’ll pick it back up when the Hawks land on the West Coast.

 

Everything Else

This Is A Close-Up?!

By Sam Fels 2242 0

The Hawks didn’t exactly come in rolling to this three-game homestand. They had lost five in a row, though two of those came in OT or a shootout to the Stars, and three of them came without Corey Crawford (though the Hawks scored exactly five goals in the three games he didn’t play, so what difference he would have made wouldn’t have risen much above negligible). The idea was that getting to play three straight teams near the bottom of the standings would be a chance for the Hawks to rediscover some of their game, style, swagger, whatever you want to call it.

It didn’t really work out that way.

Friday night saw the Hawks get goalie’d a touch, as Robin Lehner was very good and that will happen. They tossed 51 shots at him and it wasn’t like the Caps game where their shots basically comprised a belly-rub. They had a good number of really good chances that he snuffed out or they hit a post. Happens, fine, whatever. Not ideal but you accept it and move on.

I’ll even let Sunday’s….whatehaveya, slide a bit, or would normally. A sleepy Sunday night in mid-December against a Coyotes team… that always can lead to a “fuck this” effort. While you don’t like to see them when a team isn’t winning…again, they happen. Figure you have a good effort against the Panthers and no one would bat an eyelash at a simple “let’s get through this” against Arizona.

And then you get last night. A Florida team that has a top line, Vincent Trocheck, and that’s about it, on the second night of a back-to-back and starting Reimer in both of them. And the Hawks were fortunate to get out of it with anything, thanks to the Toews line picking up the slack.

And please don’t tell me that Jan Rutta was the glue holding this team together.

Now normally, with other teams, when a struggling team like the Hawks are (and they are) can’t get it juiced for two straight games at home–games and points they need, mind–one might start wondering if the players have tuned out for some reason. And one might start looking hard at the coach, especially a team that has higher expectations than nicking a wild card spot and especially one that is coming off two straight first round exits that splooges its “ONE GOAL” slogan everywhere it can.

Clearly, that won’t happen here. Even if this summer saw Stan Bowman take control of the team as a GM would (and we’re only speculating on that but it sure seems that way), Coach Q has too much pull to get fired, short of ruining one of Toews’s vegetable gardens. Because yes, Toews can fire Q if he so chooses.

Next year if the Hawks were in the same spot? Yeah, maybe then we can talk.

Still, I’m sure there are fans that want to point to the Kings revival this year, or the Penguins coming alive under Mike Sullivan about two years ago, and claim the same thing could happen to the Hawks with a new voice.

The key difference is that the Kings and Penguins went from either a terribly defensive/clueless coach to one who opened things up. There is a freedom to their styles now that they didn’t have before, which just about every player is going to find refreshing. I’m not sure it works the other way. Oh hi there, Dallas Stars.

And the thing is, Q plays an open style. Whatever the Hawks problems are, it’s not because they’re too defensive or he’s too conservative. Forwards are allowed to express themselves in the offensive zone if they see fit (except Nick Schmaltz). Defensemen are allowed, and in fact encouraged, to get up into the play. Players love that. So bringing in a hard-ass who’s going to stress blocking shots or something is probably counter-productive and also this team isn’t exactly built for that. Even if Stan wanted to pull the trigger, and I would have high doubts he does, his options to move in are limited.

If they players are not responding, and if that’s a problem it’s certainly smaller than the problems of the holes on the roster, it’s not because they don’t like the style. Sure, maybe the Hawks could adopt a more Pittsburgh approach which is a little more straight-lined and sees more go-routes out of the zone and picking up passes off the glass. But given how defensively wonky the Hawks have been, I’m not sure they have that luxury.

But watching this team the past two games, something is off and it’s not just having no third line to speak of, or being thin down the middle when Schmaltz doesn’t play there. I can’t even blame the defense. Connor Murphy has been so good he’s actually masked Seabrook for the most part. Rutta and Forsling have their issues, but Forsling has done enough in the offensive zone to at least be balanced.

No, they’ve been sloppy, half-hearted at times, and lazy. Missing passes as badly as they did at times last night…that’s just not being focused because this team isn’t lacking skill. It felt more than just not getting it up for one game in the middle of the season. And this team hasn’t really earned the right to do that yet. There was a going-through-the-motions feel to it, one we’ve not seen from Hawks teams before. At least not ones that are a long way from securing their spot in the standings. When you do this in late February in Colorado because you’re already locked into second in the division/conference, no one cares. Do it now, and people do. I can’t imagine Q was too thrilled, but he probably wasn’t too thrilled with Sunday’s effort either. And this is how they responded?

And they’re running out of leeway for those kinds of efforts.

 

Everything Else

Game #31 I Can’t Promise I’ll Try, But I’ll Try to Try – Hawks 2, Panthers 2 (Hawks Win Karaoke Contest)

By Rose Rankin 2932 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

They needed two points tonight, and it certainly didn’t come easy but hey, it came. To the bullets:

– Through two periods the Panthers were beating the Hawks in nearly every measurement — shots, scoring chances, CF%, high-danger chances, faceoff percentage, you name it — except, of course, for the one that counts. Despite looking like gerbils on meth, the Hawks managed to only give up one goal in the second, largely thanks to…c’mon, you know who it’ll be…Corey Crawford. Up until the third, one dominant shift by the top line had been enough to at least keep it tied, until Keith got caught up with ‘ole Wide Dick’s package, and Trocheck and McGinn were able to get by them and score. It was certainly frustrating, but given how the Hawks had been playing, it wasn’t exactly surprising.

– But then, the top line! In the first period, they had said dominant shift that gave the Hawks the lead (and probably contributed to the coasting for a while), but let’s look at that: Top Cat was working behind the net, and all three of them were digging pucks out of the boards and keeping continual pressure, until Saad was able to bury a quick shot from the top of the crease. It was exactly the type of shift they need to have consistently — and until mid-way through the third it looked like that one shift might have been the only one they had in them. Their possession numbers were better than decent all night, but no other finish. Fortunately they pulled their shit together when it was needed and Toews tied the game in the third.

– Jan Rutta got his head dented in during the second period and left the game. I’m not happy about this, and I will not celebrate someone’s injury, even if he has been kinda sucking lately. What’s more interesting is 1. Will this finally lead Q to #FreeKempny? Will he be forced to? One would think so, and 2. How will any resulting reshuffle affect the defense? Franson skated in practice today, so it’s possible that Q hates Kempny so much that he’ll put an injured and aging bag of crap in instead of him. Barring that, would Kempny pair with Forsling? Or would Murphy move up to be paired with Keith and Oesterle moves elsewhere? Stay tuned.

– Speaking of  Connor Murphy, he basically saved a goal with a smooth sweep of the puck out of the net before the refs saw him do it. It takes a village.

The Hawks needed to take all six points available in these last three games, and they pulled it out of their ass. This is their first three-game win streak this year, which is good news and yet sad that it took this long, right? Next up is Winnipeg, which stumbled a little recently but beat the crap out of Vancouver last night, so they may have their mojo back. I don’t know if I’d count on any momentum, but maybe some faith that they can polish a turd when necessary? Onward and upward.

Line of the Night: “This Blackhawks power play has been a buzzkill for the last couple games.” —Pat Foley, in the world’s greatest understatement

Beer de jour: Fistmas by Revolution, because holiday-themed beers are only acceptable in the month of December

 

Everything Else

Game #29 – I Don’t Worry ‘Bout Nothin’, No, Because Worryin’s a Waste of My Time – Hawks 2, Sabres 2 (Hawks Win “Who Can Blow the Loudest Fart” Contest)

By John Pullega 2303 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Watching this game was like watching a dog with two dicks debating which one to lick first. To the bullets.

– This entire game was an “all process, no results” affair. I simply don’t know how to explain how the Hawks as a team can have a fucking 70+ CF% through three periods and only score two goddamn goals. And it’s not like the Hawks were only taking perimeter shots either. Look at where a bulk of their shots came from.

Hat tip to Robin Lehner for not only skipping the Trump rally in Pensacola but also managing to stop a constant barrage of shots right in front of the net. The Hawks had 13 high danger attempts vs. three for the Sabres and came away with just two regulation goals. I hate to be the guy who chalks it up to luck, but I don’t know how else to explain it.

– That said, thank your god for Nick Schmaltz. In the first period, I was standing around wringing my hands after he decided to throw a pass up the middle of the ice and missed Kane instead of continuing to drive to the net for a backhander. Eddie O. made a comment about how he needs to take that shot, and I ranted and raved to a glass of bourbon about how I needed less Jesus Christ and more Niccolò Machiavelli out of him. From then on, he took just about every shot he saw. And while Tommy Wingels will get all the crotch kisses from Foley and everyone else for the shorty in the third period, none of it happens if Schmaltz doesn’t act like a one-man wrecking ball against three Sabres to maintain possession of the puck. He’s absolutely the Hawks best player out there tonight.

– Though you could argue that DeBrincat was the best player tonight, too. Top Cat’s PP goal came from the left side. I, for one, am shocked that he was capable of doing that. It’s not like he scored 7 million goals from there in the OHL or anything. Whatever. You take what you can get, and Top Cat has so, so much to give. Watching him turn into a forechecking terror is a joy, especially with all the offensive upside. Just think of the pornography he’d make with Our Special Boy, had the brain trust not punted him to Carolina.

– Vinnie Smalls did the thing he’s good at, too. He was a coked-up mongoose in a den of snakes, and per usual, had nothing to show for it on the scoring ledger. He’ll probably never be more than a tweener in the NHL, but he was fast and noticeable. He’s not savior, but he avoided doing things the Max Power way tonight.

– I motherfucked Crawford coming back this soon to play in this game, but obviously, Q’s THROBBING GENIOUS BRAIN knows better. Though the Sabres did next to dick throughout the game offensively, there’s no way you’re trusting Forsberg against Eichel on the OT penalty shot. We knew this season was going to ride on Crawford, but I don’t think many of us thought that a December game against the worst team in the NHL would be the manifestation of that thought.

– Cody Franson played zero minutes on the power play, and spent most of the third period in the locker room. If he’s not on the PP, there’s absolutely no reason for him to suit up. It’s time for Q to get the gimp that is Michal Kempný out of the box and next to Porkins.

– Speaking of Porkins, wasn’t that penalty just classic him? His utter inability to move not only canceled an icing, but left the Hawks down a man late in the third down one in a game they absolutely needed to win. But hey, it led to a goal. I’m sure the brass will find a way to chalk that up to leadership, because we have another 9,000 years of this contract to justify.

– Forsling’s Two Face impression may have fooled Eddie O., but not me. Yes, he scored the game winner. Yes, he had a hand in all of the Hawks’s goals. But his positioning on both Eichel’s and Okposo’s goals is inexcusable. I know he’s all of 20 and is being thrown into the deep end . . . and really that’s the explanation. We can bitch and moan about how he’s not a good fit on the PK for now, but the only other realistic option is Murphy, and it doesn’t look like Q wants to trust him there yet.

– Though he probably should. Murphy has looked better and better each time out, and he was rewarded tonight by replacing Franson on the top pairing with Keith. The best thing I’ve noticed from him is how much more confident he is when clearing the puck from his own end. That was a huge problem for him early on. His move to the left side seems to have given him a nice confidence boost. Whether he stays up top with Keith is anyone’s guess, but if it is Kempný who slots in on Sunday, I can’t see why we wouldn’t see Keith–Murphy.

– There’s something to be said about Jonathan Toews completely giving up on Eichel in OT, but I’m not sure what it is, mostly because the OT is a blazing clown rodeo held in a dumpster behind a Wawa. He looks 29 going on 40.

If you’re playing must-win games against the dregs of hockey in December, all is not well. But the Hawks did everything you’re supposed to do to win a game except score, which, of course, is about as John Maddeny as it gets. Whatever. Two points are two points. Anything but four in the next two is an abject failure.

Booze of the Night: High Life –> Tommyknocker Maple Brown –> Woodford Reserve

(Evergreen) Line of the Night: “The inability to work his legs will cost Seabrook and the Hawks a penalty.” –Foley

Everything Else

Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks Preview/Foam Rollout: Do Something To Somebody Quick

By Sam Fels 1464 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Sabres 7-17-4   Hawks 12-11-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THROUGH THE TABLE IN THE PARKING LOT: Die By The Blade

If the Hawks can’t get healthy now, then you might want to abandon all hope. They’ll begin a three-game homestand against the mat-shots of the league: the Sabres, Yotes, and Panthers. If you needed to work some shit out, start to gain a little confidence, and maybe find a slump-buster, you could hardly order this up better.

Once again, the Hawks will be rolling out a new look, including their first call-up of the season if you can believe it. Vinnie Smalls, a.k.a Vincent Hinostroza has come in from the cold, Rockford air to replace Tanner Kero on the roster. He immediately slots into the lineup, though where isn’t exactly clear as he wasn’t allowed to participate in the morning skate. Our best guess has him replacing Hartman at center between Sharp and Panik, but it could be anything. Because god forbid anyone on the juggernaut 4th line, with its 40 CF%, be replaced.

Other changes see Alex DeBrincat move into the top six. Real stroke of genius to get one of the league’s top rookie scorers there. He’ll play opposite Saad and next to Toews, which we’re actually kind of jonesing to see. It would work better if Saad and Top Cat would swap sides, but one thing at a time, people. The Schmaltz-Wide Dick Arty-Garbage Dick line is reunited, because they’re basically Q’s blanky right now. It doesn’t really add up, has its faults, but they did score when together before. And the Hawks need scoring.

Corey Crawford will return to the net, and if you’re thinking, “Man this seems quick,” you’d be right. The word earlier in the week was that he wouldn’t return until Sunday. But throw in a loss that had Q pretty pissed and purple, and suddenly you’ve got a panicky coach. And though you shouldn’t need Crawford against the Sabres, and though Forsberg has been pretty solid aside from one game in Denver and one bad goal in DC, Q isn’t waiting around, even if it shoots Forsberg’s confidence into the moon. Q thinks the Hawks need points and now, and he’s not totally wrong. But if Crow should re-aggravate something badly…

And again, you shouldn’t need major inspiration to find two points against this hillbilly station wagon that constitutes the Buffalo Sabres. This is the league’s worst team, which is a real disappointment for fans that thought they could maybe at least be representative this year. It’s been a mess, no one’s sure Phil Housley has any idea what he’s doing, and if there’s a plan in place no one can identify it. There’s still Jack Eichel, and he’s really good. The Other Asshole Kane is having a career year, which probably will get some team to hold their nose and pick him up before the deadline, and the Sabres had better turn that into assets for now and the future. Rasmus Ristolainen has had an upswing on the blue line this year, but that’s really it. We’ve always loved Kyle Okposo, but he’s on the third line at the moment. Ryan O’Reilly murders the Hawks, but is having a rough go at the moment, as he has two goals since November 11th and two points at all in his last seven. Aside from those names there is just nothing here.

Making it worse is that the Sabres goalies, which were pretty good last year, have not been this year. Robin Lehner has been terrible, and at 26 is running out of runway to claim he’s “The Real Thing.” Chad Johnson has been even worse. The last thing a bad team needs is bad goaltending, otherwise you get this current carcass smell.

Don’t have to overthink this one. The Sabres suck out loud, and theHawks need to get healthy on this part of the schedule. Rack up six of six before having to head to Winnipeg next week. Nothing less will do.

 

Game #29 Preview

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Game #29 – Sabres vs. Hawks Preview/Foam Rollout: Do Something To Somebody Quick

By Sam Fels 1747 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Sabres 7-17-4   Hawks 12-11-5

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THROUGH THE TABLE IN THE PARKING LOT: Die By The Blade

If the Hawks can’t get healthy now, then you might want to abandon all hope. They’ll begin a three-game homestand against the mat-shots of the league: the Sabres, Yotes, and Panthers. If you needed to work some shit out, start to gain a little confidence, and maybe find a slump-buster, you could hardly order this up better.

Once again, the Hawks will be rolling out a new look, including their first call-up of the season if you can believe it. Vinnie Smalls, a.k.a Vincent Hinostroza has come in from the cold, Rockford air to replace Tanner Kero on the roster. He immediately slots into the lineup, though where isn’t exactly clear as he wasn’t allowed to participate in the morning skate. Our best guess has him replacing Hartman at center between Sharp and Panik, but it could be anything. Because god forbid anyone on the juggernaut 4th line, with its 40 CF%, be replaced.

Other changes see Alex DeBrincat move into the top six. Real stroke of genius to get one of the league’s top rookie scorers there. He’ll play opposite Saad and next to Toews, which we’re actually kind of jonesing to see. It would work better if Saad and Top Cat would swap sides, but one thing at a time, people. The Schmaltz-Wide Dick Arty-Garbage Dick line is reunited, because they’re basically Q’s blanky right now. It doesn’t really add up, has its faults, but they did score when together before. And the Hawks need scoring.

Corey Crawford will return to the net, and if you’re thinking, “Man this seems quick,” you’d be right. The word earlier in the week was that he wouldn’t return until Sunday. But throw in a loss that had Q pretty pissed and purple, and suddenly you’ve got a panicky coach. And though you shouldn’t need Crawford against the Sabres, and though Forsberg has been pretty solid aside from one game in Denver and one bad goal in DC, Q isn’t waiting around, even if it shoots Forsberg’s confidence into the moon. Q thinks the Hawks need points and now, and he’s not totally wrong. But if Crow should re-aggravate something badly…

And again, you shouldn’t need major inspiration to find two points against this hillbilly station wagon that constitutes the Buffalo Sabres. This is the league’s worst team, which is a real disappointment for fans that thought they could maybe at least be representative this year. It’s been a mess, no one’s sure Phil Housley has any idea what he’s doing, and if there’s a plan in place no one can identify it. There’s still Jack Eichel, and he’s really good. The Other Asshole Kane is having a career year, which probably will get some team to hold their nose and pick him up before the deadline, and the Sabres had better turn that into assets for now and the future. Rasmus Ristolainen has had an upswing on the blue line this year, but that’s really it. We’ve always loved Kyle Okposo, but he’s on the third line at the moment. Ryan O’Reilly murders the Hawks, but is having a rough go at the moment, as he has two goals since November 11th and two points at all in his last seven. Aside from those names there is just nothing here.

Making it worse is that the Sabres goalies, which were pretty good last year, have not been this year. Robin Lehner has been terrible, and at 26 is running out of runway to claim he’s “The Real Thing.” Chad Johnson has been even worse. The last thing a bad team needs is bad goaltending, otherwise you get this current carcass smell.

Don’t have to overthink this one. The Sabres suck out loud, and theHawks need to get healthy on this part of the schedule. Rack up six of six before having to head to Winnipeg next week. Nothing less will do.

 

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If You’re On The Way To The Grave You Don’t Blame The Hearse

By Sam Fels 2356 0

It’s not often we’ve sat here with the Hawks having a losing streak this long (although, full disclosure, I think a losing streak that includes two losses in the gimmicks that come after 60 minutes shouldn’t really count, but here we are. A different breeze and the Hawks merely would have lost three of five). When dealing with something unfamiliar there’s a tendency to overreact, if not outright panic. The Hawks do face some issues, so let’s get to them.

-The power play. Whatever problems the Hawks have, and really any team, you can paper over them if you’re cashing in on the power play. Especially as the Hawks generate the most opportunities in the league, which kind of lets you know they aren’t that bad at even-strength. In fact, they’re good. Your top three teams in the league on the power play are Tampa, Nashville, and Winnipeg, who just happen to be three of the top teams in the league right now. They’re solid outfits without the added bonus, but Pittsburgh, the Islanders, and the Leafs have been able to buttress their holes by scoring a bunch on the power play as well.

While Joel Quenneville doesn’t want to admit it, the biggest problem on the power play is that the Hawks can’t get into the zone consistently and with control. The Hawks, at least at the moment, aren’t a great forechecking team. If they were to dump the puck in, who do you trust to go get it back? Saad? Toews? Anisimov can’t get there in time. Panik maybe? Again, you can’t really say for sure with any of them.

So the Hawks want to carry it in all the time, but other teams know this. They’re standing up at their line, and also dragging one behind to counter this dumbass, drop-pass to Kane to let him do it all himself. That doesn’t work unless you’ve somehow backed at least a couple penalty killers off the line.

But like everything else on this team, it’s hard to know how to line that up. Do you put Toews and Saad on one unit? Let’s run with that. Have them with Schmaltz. Run it through Schmaltz on the left half-boards, mirroring what you’d do on the other unit with Kane. Have Forsling on the point and Anisimov playing, “Annette Frontpresence.” This gives Schmaltz three passing options from there–the point, cross-ice, and high slot–all of which can one-time a pass. If teams start to cheat there and smother, Forsling and Saad/Toews can exploit that space on the other side.

You’re other unit can have Kane running things as usual, with Seabrook, and Top Cat the threats at the point and cross-ice. This is what ADB does and really hasn’t been allowed to. He’s also nifty enough to run things himself if Kane is being smothered. It lacks a right-handed shot to occupy the high-slot, but Keith has played the rover before. It’s not ideal, but you can live with it.

Does that solve your entry problem? Not entirely. The “Kane Unit” doesn’t really have a QB, and I’m not yet convinced that Forsling is one yet on the other. But given how teams are just standing at their line, soft chips into the corner should be recoverable. And you only have to do it for a while before teams at least have to account for it.

And the Hawks just have to pick something and stick with it. This is what we do and we’re going to do it better than you can defend it. Changing your plan every single power play lets both your team and the other one you have no confidence and you have no answers.

The other option is to just team up Kane, Schmaltz, and Top Cat and let them do what they did in the preseason on the power play. Never stop moving, create angles where no one saw them, and just let Anisimov stand there with that dumb look on his face and bank it off him. I know sending three guys out there and saying, “Try shit,” isn’t a great tactical plan, but it probably works better than this.

-The waiving of Tanner Kero today probably signals that Vinnie Smalls is on his way up. He’s not going to solve everything. He’s probably not going to solve much at all. He makes the forwards faster, but speed isn’t the problem at forward. It’s a problem in defense. We’ll save the #FreeKempny discussion for another time.

However, Q’s slotting of Toews down the lineup seems to be something of an admission that he’s a different player than he was. I’ve been calling on the podcast to slot Schmaltz between Saad and Panik, Top Cat with Kane and Anisimov, and Toews between Hartman and whatever other goof you want. Make the other coach pick whether or not Toews gets to see third lines–which I’m fairly sure he will murder–or if they’re going to still treat him like ’13 Toews, freeing up your top two lines. I think he’s slowly getting to this.

 

Everything Else

Game #28 – Hawks 2 – Capitals 6: Love Isn’t Always On Time

By Sam Fels 3229 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

This is going to sound strange. But strange is what we deal in around these parts. The Hawks really weren’t that bad tonight. In fact, for the first two periods, they were pretty good. It’s just that whenever something can go wrong for the Hawks right now, it’s going to horribly. When you have to lean on you backup goalie for three straight games, he’s probably going to let in a softie. So there’s the Caps’ second goal, which changed the outlook of the game. Still, you’d like to see a team like this respond a little better than giving up another one 29 seconds later, but we’ll get to that. Toss in a power play that can’t hit a bull in the ass with a snow-shovel right now, some players that are being asked to do the wrong things, and you get what looks like an ugly loss. The time for consolation is running out quickly. Hockey remains weird, and because of that there’s no guarantee that things will bend back the way that the Hawks play really suggests it should.

-While the second Caps’ goal–The Fels Motherfuck is on a real streak this season–appeared to be the game-changer, really it was the power play in the 2nd period when it was still a 3-1 game. Actually it was two of them. And the Hawks power play didn’t do anything. Like it’s been doing, or not doing I s’pose, all season.

What’s most frustrating is it’s obvious to everyone, and it must be obvious to the players, that the coaches have no idea where to go. Every power play the Hawks try something different. First we had Kane on a point, though moving down to the right half-boards with Saad on the left. But what good does having Saad on the left do? He’s a left-handed shot. The next power play saw Kane on the other side with Schmaltz where he was. A third power play saw the Hawks move two guys below the net.

We see this every game. The Hawks have new personnel or a new look or both on every chance. It doesn’t suggest that they’ve got a lot of plans. It suggests they don’t have any plans, and that translates to the players. If the coaches have no confidence in what they’re putting out there, why would they? And it’s costing them points, because for the most part at evens, the Hawks are where they need to be. Yes, I know, but it’s true.

-The new lines were… well, the new lines. It’s hard to get a read after one game. Toews’s line looked exactly like we thought, didn’t have a role. Schmaltz made some things happen with Top Cat, but they also could get overpowered down low in both zones.

-The problems are still on defense. All of Forsling, Rutta, and Franson got exposed in ways that the coaches simply refuse to see. Rutta and Forsling cannot handle anything but lower competition, but found themselves out against Backstrom’s line a lot of the night. And the Hawks seemed happy to have it that way. And ti’s not the first time we’ve seen that, because Tyler Seguin’s line spent two games making them look like Glass Joe. The Hawks best d-man right now is Connor Murphy, and it’s about time the Hawks start treating him like that.

For the Caps third goal, which made this hill really steep, came from Franson’s inability to recognize danger and his Snuffleupagus-like feet. Keith had pinched down the boards and no forward had covered for him. But Franson has to recognize that, instead he was sinking down into the offensive zone. So when the go-route was thrown for Wilson, he’s never going to catch that. He needs to be a free safety there. He was also slow getting back into position for the Caps’ 5th, trailing Kuznetsov.

You simply can’t keep asking Franson to take anything more than third pairing assignments, if that. The Hawks haven’t discovered gold here where no one else could see it. Three teams have decided that Franson is no better than a #7. There’s a reason for that. Stop thinking you’re geniuses. You’re not.

-While the Hawks certainly controlled the possession game for the first 40, most of it was pretty much restricted to the outside. This is where the annoying “Annette Frontpresence” discussion always rears it’s ugly head. I don’t know that the Hawks lack guys who can get to the net. Panik can’t buy one right now. Anisimov is Anisimov. Bouma and Wingels are what they are. You would think Saad would be another, but he isn’t really, is he? Most of Saad’s goals seem to come on the rush or elsewhere. He doesn’t score as many tips and rebounds as you feel like he should. And this was the problem the Hawks had with him the first time.

It’s an ugly scoreline for sure. And the 3rd period wasn’t pretty. There are serious problems here, but a good portion of it is the Hawks own making. Things have to turn sharpish, but it’s there. At least I think it is.

 

 

Everything Else

Let’s Have A Frank Talk About Toews

By Sam Fels 4715 0

With the Hawks having collected only two of the last eight points on offer, everyone is calling for Battle Stations. It’s understandable. Patience is hard to find when you’re watching the amount of teams wedge themselves between the Hawks and the last playoff spots. It’s doubly hard when you know how hard it is to climb up the standings, especially with so many teams centering themselves in the muck.

Most eyes are focused on what was the Hawks top line, though that may have changed with a simply bonkers rearranging at practice today (we’ll get to that tomorrow). Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews, and Richard Panik all have their goal-droughts or dry streaks, whatever you want to call them. We’ve gone over Saad’s “struggles” recently, so it’s time to look at Captain Marvel a little deeper.

And here’s the thing… Jonathan Toews is having a pretty good season.

I know how that sounds. Seven goals and 18 points over 27 games isn’t what you pictured. It projects out to 21 goals and 54 points, which is a touch short of what Toews has usually put up. Toews’s usual numbers are in the high-20s for goals and mid-60s for points, aside from last year. We almost have to throw out the season-in-a-can of 2013, as it’s the only season where Toews was a point-per-game and was projecting to have a 35-40 goals season over 82. It’s kind of an aberration.

If we flip up the hood, things are more encouraging than you think. Toews’s overall possession share is the highest it’s been since the last Cup season. And in relative to the team it’s the best since 2014. His xGF% is the best it’s been in four seasons, and relative to his team it’s the best in five seasons. Toews is averaging more attempts at even-strength than he has since that 2013 season. His individual expected goals is higher than the past four seasons, and in line with everything that came before his binging of 2012 and 2013.

Essentially, we’re in the same spot we were with Marian Hossa before last season. If you’ll recall, Hossa had seen his shooting percentage decrease for four straight years before last year, and we all thought that’s what we had to expect. And then last year he spasmed a 15% season and 26 goals in 73 games. It can come from nowhere.

Toews has a career-low shooting percentage at evens of 7.8%. That’s down from 8.3 last year, 8.5 the year before that, and 14.2 the year before that which is where Toews lived for most of his career. Now, this is where we could speculate he doesn’t quite have the fastball he used to, or his release isn’t quite what it was. Or maybe he’s not as accurate as he once was, but we can’t really measure that. By all the things we can measure, he’s actually getting better chances than he has in a couple years. Basically, everything is where it should be.

Toews hasn’t benefitted from the power play being a clusterfuck. He’s got one on the man-advantage this year, and he usually racks up six or seven per season. Would everyone feel a little better if Toews had 10 goals overall now and projecting for closer to 30? That would happen if he were getting his normal PP goals. Meanwhile, Toews has been doing this against some of the toughest competition he’s seen in his career.

I know this won’t make anyone feel better. Toews, Saad, and Panik aren’t scoring enough. And the explanation, “They’re just getting shitty luck,” isn’t satisfactory because you can’t really do anything about that until it simply corrects itself. And sometimes it doesn’t. But Toews is in the right end of the ice. He’s in the right spots to score. He’s getting the right number of chances. They’re just not going in.

It’s not much solace, but it’s all we’ve got. And playing him with Ryan Hartman and John Hayeden isn’t going to do much.