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Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…-FFUD’s Player Reviews: Tomas Jurco or Just Good Enough To Not Matter

By Sam Fels 1488 0

It seemed like Tomas Jurco played more than just the 29 games he got, but that’s the number. Maybe it’s because those 29 games were such a slog thanks to the goaltending they felt like 60. That’s not Jurco’s fault. Anyway, Jurco ended up being a pretty effective 4th liner. The question is will it matter in the least going forward.

Tomas Jurco

29 games, 6 goals, 4 assists, 10 points, +1, 12 PIM

51.8 CF%, +2.03 CF% rel, 51.9 xGF%, +5.18 xGF% rel

The interesting thing for Jurco is what he’ll mean for how the Hawks will build their roster going forward, but we’ll get to that. Jurco always seemed like a tweener in both Detroit and here. He wasn’t really skilled enough to break your top six, but he wasn’t grind-y, sandpaper-y, fart-y to be on the bottom six for coaches who only saw the game one way. Even if you wanted to do the patented “3+1” model the Hawks have either had or strived for, getting him on the top nine was a real squeeze. We’re talking about a guy who in basically 3+ seasons in the NHL has only managed 22 goals and 50 points. If he were really that skilled, he would be clobbering bottom-six opposition which he was facing. That was most certainly not the case before this year.

But this year something seemingly changed. He looked spikier, there was a little more oomph or punch to his skating and playmaking in the offensive zone. And he wasn’t a disaster in his own by any means. Jurco was also attached to Artem Anisimov his entire stay in Chicago, which you wouldn’t think would accentuate what he does well, and Anisimov was more than competent with him and pretty much a disaster without him (39.8 CF% away from Jurco). Perhaps with a quicker and more skilled set of linemates, Jurco’s abilities could really shine as he does have vision and he does have a sense for the net.

Outlook: Here’s the problem for Jurco. Barring any disasters or trades, the Hawks have a pretty big group of forwards guaranteed spots next year. Toews, Saad, Kane, Schmaltz, DeBrincat, Sikura, Ejdsell, Hinostroza (maybe?). That’s eight right there.  You’d have to think Duclair would have to go way out of his way to not get a spot either. They may be serious in not wanting to trade Anisimov, which is 10. You can totally see them re-signing LOCAL BOY Tommy Wingels again, which is 11, basically leaving one or two spots on the team. And given their fascination with size, John Hayden will once again get every chance to bungle away a spot because he just will, and Highmore and other Rockford flotsam might get looks as well.

But to me, what the Hawks do with Jurco (he’s an RFA) will say a lot about how they’re going to build their team, and if they’re going to change the thinking in doing that. Because if the Hawks are looking around at the Preds, Knights, and Penguins, and one or two others, and just decide they’re going to pack the forward spots with as much speed and skill as they can, Jurco has a place. If the Hawks are going to employ more of a “Get It The Fuck Up The Ice As Quickly As Possible” style that the league will go to more and more, Jurco has a place on the third or fourth line (and Anisimov, Hayden, and Wingels most certainly don’t). He can get you goals against bums on the other teams’ nether regions.

But if the Hawks stick to their third line being a “checking” line and/or the fourth line being the home for wayward children who don’t read good, then Jurco probably doesn’t have a place. He’s not going to be a checker, and he’s certainly not going to be a grinder. Maybe if you squint he can be a homeless man’s Michael Frolik, but Michael Frolik’s are unicorn in nature. And even Frolik was more of a nod to packing your forward corps full of speed and fury. Bolland-Kruger-Frolik is a fourth line you’d see in today’s game. The Hawks were ahead of their time and seemingly have ignored it since.

Jurco won’t be expensive. He’s due a raise of just $80K and will probably clock in at $900K or so. Given the candidates, he seems to provide as much or more than anyone else who could warrant a bottom-six role.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…-FFUD’s Player Reviews: Patrick Sharp or You Can’t Go Home Again

By Sam Fels 2030 0

There’s little point in rehashing the details of Patrick Sharp’s farewell tour here. You know how it went, I know how it went, he knows how it went. And really, for the $1 million he was paid and the 4th line role he basically played, it wasn’t a disaster. Maybe his mentoring of Alex DeBrincat will become more important than we can realize here on the outside. Who knows? Sharp came back, it kind of just happened, we all shared our memories of him again (and there are so many), and we’ll all move on.

Still, Sharp’s acquisition raises some discussion about just what the Hawks do in the front office. Because no matter what your conclusion is, none of it makes you feel good about the inner workings of how the Hawks put together a team. So there are three ways this could have happened, right?

One, Stan Bowman saw Sharp decompose in Dallas, along with the hip surgery, and thought he could genuinely help this team. Maybe he figured it was only a million bucks, it was a signing his coach would actually give every chance to which most certainly has not been the case with a lot of signings, and took the plunge. Either way, there were many other fourth liners for even cheaper, and third liners, that the Hawks could have gone out and got and probably would have contributed more. Sharp hardly torpedoed the Hawks season, nor would someone else in that slot have saved it, it’s just somewhere you could have done better.

Two, John McDonough came down and told them they needed to sell more of the new jerseys with the reverse-preacher collar and bringing back ol’ #10 would help them do that. It would continue a pattern for the Hawks of getting the band back together, which has simply never worked in the past. The only “Old Boy” to come back and make any contribution that mattered that I can remember is one Kris Versteeg rush in Game 5 against Tampa that Antoine Vermette scored the winner off of. But McD has got to sell his shirts, he’s got to get his headlines, and he’s got to get pats on the back from the construction workers who yell at him outside his office window (even though that building is done now I assume McD keeps those workers there so he can have a barometer of how he’s doing).

Three, Joel Quenneville is still fuming from the trade of Niklas Hjalmarsson (and he would piss all over all season to the detriment of the team) so Stan and/or McD decide to throw him a bone by bringing back yet another player he once loved. And this has been the thinking in bringing back Versteeg, Ladd, Oduya, and whatever other stiff I can’t remember right now that basically gurgled in place once they returned. Stan recognizes a problem or deficiency on the roster, knows how other acquisitions have gone over with his coach, and resigns himself to bringing back a player at least he knows Q will play. Q’s circle of trust takes eons and miracles to expand, so Stan is restricted to getting players who were already in it and are past it or hoping and praying that a new player can enter within. It only took Connor Murphy 60 games, and he was the Hawks best d-man the whole fucking season.

So either the Hawks’ pro scouting sucks to high heaven (it just might!), the president who doesn’t know shit on shit about hockey is getting to make some calls that don’t have shit on shit to do with hockey, or the coach is still getting to make the call on some toys which quite simply has rarely worked out. Hmm, wanna know how you win three playoff games over three years?

None of this has much to do with Sharp, of course. He was what he was, and it’s not like he didn’t try or didn’t do what he could. And I don’t need to pile on. McClure has written a better eulogy than I could for his Hawks career when he was traded. Hess did it again in our final spotlight for the final game of the season. We had a podcast section about it.

So I’d love to wax poetic about the shorthanded goal in Game 2 against Vancouver in ’10, where he basically just decided he was scoring, but we’ve been there. What I will say is that watching Patrick Sharp’s first few games in red in the first season out of the lockout, it was really the first sign that Tallon and the Hawks got it and were working on something. It was immediately clear Tallon had gotten it wrong out of that lockout, and to him as well. There was no way to see what Sharp would go on to accomplish (unless you were McClure), but you could tell he was intelligent, fast, and there was more skill there than was billed on arrival. And you thought to yourself, “If Tallon can get a few more players like this, nail a couple picks, and have a couple kids develop out of nowhere…” It was a long road to envision, but Sharp helped you finally see it.

Anyway, good luck to Sharp-shooter in whatever’s next. He won’t be a Hall of Famer or anything, but he’ll go down as something of a cult Hawks hero. And that’s more than ok.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Jordan Oesterle, The Other GREAT STORY

By John Pullega 1757 0

Once thought of as merely a depth signing, Jordan Oesterle went from playing a combined 25 games over three years for the corroded sewer piping that is Edmonton’s defense to taking first-pairing minutes with future Hall of Famer Duncan Keith. Like you, we often wondered how on Earth a team that relied so heavily on its defensemen to win games and Cups ended up throwing a guy who couldn’t hack it in Edmonton into meaningful minutes. At the end of the day, Oesterle wasn’t the underground landfill fire approaching a nuclear waste dump that we worried he could be, but that isn’t saying much. Let’s see what we have here.

Jordan Oesterle

55 GP, 5 Goals, 10 Assists, 15 Points, -11, 8 PIM

52.4 CF% (Evens), -0.6 CF% Rel (Evens), 53.15 SCF% (5v5), 49 xGF% (5v5), 0.44 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 56.5% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: If truck stops served oysters, they’d be called Oesterles . . . He’s billed as a no-frills blue liner, which essentially makes him the Tom Smykowski of the NHL. If he’s afforded any meaningful playing time, you’ll beg for someone to set the whole building on fire.

What We Got: If not for Jeff G.L. Ass, Jordan Oesterle would have taken the “WHAT A GREAT STORY” mantle. He scored his first goal ever this year, played in more than half of his team’s games for the first time ever this year, and—per Scott Powers—averaged 21 minutes per game in the Hawks’s final 53 games, trailing only Duncan Keith.

Like everyone’s favorite Irishman, Oesterle found most of his success playing on his off side. Of his 986 minutes, he played 553 of them as the right-side D-man next to Keith. In doing so, he finished with a 52.99 CF% and six points (1 G 5 A) next to Keith (5v5). That’s not bad for a guy with 25 games of experience to his name prior to this year. I’m being entirely sincere when I say that’s really great for him.

What isn’t great is that when you start digging into the numbers, you can quantify what your eyes saw game in and game out: Jordan Oesterle probably sucks, and was at the very least in way over his head.

When you consider the fact that Oesterle started in the offensive zone more than 56% of the time, his overall 52.4 CF% loses some of its sheen. And it only gets worse from there. Despite the plush zone starts, Oesterle posted a team-worst 43.86 High Danger Chances For Percentage (Hillman doesn’t count because he only played four games). This means that even though Oesterle started in the offensive zone much more often than not, he still managed to give up more high-danger scoring chances than he and his linemates took, and by a wide margin.

Oesterle also contributed an abysmal 43.02 Goals For Percentage (GF%), second worst behind Duncan Keith; a -3.55 Relative Goals For Percentage (Rel GF%), third worst behind Keith and Gustav Forsling; and a 49 Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%). This means that in both practice and theory, when Oesterle was on the ice—especially with Keith—the Hawks scored much, much less often than when he wasn’t. Again, this is while starting in the offensive zone 56% of the time.

This isn’t to say that Oesterle can’t be useful. But as a first-pairing defenseman, Oesterle was overwhelmed more often than not. Granted, he was placed on his off side for most of the year, next to a cowboy with increasingly dull spurs, and was asked to take on the best his opponents had to offer on a nightly basis. That’s probably not the wisest use of a guy who, again, couldn’t hack it on a team that thought Adam Larsson was a comparable player to Taylor Hall.

But that’s also not Oesterle’s fault, as Q’s THROBBING GENIOUS BRAIN simply couldn’t contain the temptation to breathe life into a player who is the hockey equivalent of a lump of clay and call him man.

Where We Go From Here: Realistically and unfortunately, Oesterle will probably saddle up next to Keith to start the season again, as Q embarks on another campaign to prove what a smart and forward-thinking coach he is with one of HIS GUYS. But if we’re looking at this as a “maximizing potential” proposition, Oesterle would be the 7th D-man, spelling guys like Rutta and Forsling (God willing) when necessary.

The problem with this is twofold. One, we still don’t know whether the organ-I-zation is going to go out and get a legitimate top-pairing guy. If they do, that’s going to push Oesterle out, as you figure to see combinations of Keith–New Guy, Gustafsson–Seabrook (because fuck you), and Murphy–Rutta (kill me).

Two, though it’s clear to everyone outside the organ-I-zation that Brent Seabrook is now a third-pairing guy, there’s no guarantee that he’ll slot there. If he does, and Seabrook has a crystal-clear understanding that he is to play centerfield and nothing else, you can see Oesterle fitting in there, maybe. But given that Quenneville tended to lean on Seabrook when he was out of answers, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Seabrook as a designated third-pairing guy anywhere but in our dreams.

The important thing to keep in mind is that Oesterle is a complete trainwreck in his own zone—hell, he couldn’t take advantage of a 56% oZ start ratio—so pairing him with guys like Keith, Forsling, or Gustafsson needs to be completely off the table. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for him, and that’s probably for the better.

Oesterle can be a serviceable third-pairing D-man in spot situations. He’s proven that he can play his off side without completely filling his diaper, and if you want to be outrageously generous, you can maybe see him as a second-unit power play QB, if the Hawks stand pat with the blue line in the offseason. But like we said at the beginning of this year, if the Hawks are relying on Jordan Oesterle to play meaningful minutes next year, it might be time to start making and filling some upper-level-management vacancies.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: Gustav Forsling and Carl Dahlstrom, the red-headed step children

By Adam Hess 1986 0

Our next stop on the hindsight circuit brings us to Chicago’s two young Swedish defensemen, Gustav Forsling and Carl Dahlstrom. Let’s do these bad boys one at a time.

Gustav Forsling

41 Games, 3 Goals, 10 Assists, 13 Points, -2, 8 PIM

48.9 CF%, -6.8 CF% rel, 44.54 xGF%, -8.9 xGF% rel, 51.67 Zone Start Ratio

With what appeared to be a mostly patchwork blue line group heading into the 2017-18 Blackhawks season, it seemed to make sense that Gustav Forsling would get a really fair shake at proving his worth in the NHL. Some might make the case that he did get that shake, but those some would be wrong. Yes, Forsling spent a good amount of time at the NHL level last year – playing in half the games definitely strikes one as a fair shake. But the big number that sticks out there is the 51.67 Zone Start Ratio. For a player of Forsling’s skillset, that is entirely too low, even as a defenseman. Barely having more than half of his shifts start in the offensive zone screams misuse.

Add in the fact that he was saddled for much of the season with Jan Rutta, which we covered yesterday, and you have another example of the miscasting. The root of that misuse is that Joel Quenneville seems unable to see Forsling as anything other than what he isn’t, which is to say that Q sees his lack of pure defensive d-zone instincts, physicality, and overall boring defensive play and has thus far tried to coax him into developing that side of his game rather than really accentuating what he does well. Which is really strange, because it seems to me that what Forsling does well is almost exactly what the Hawks blue line really needs.

Forsling has the most beautiful skating stride on the team, sees the ice with enviable vision and anticipation, can drop a puck on his teammates tape nearly as good as anyone else on the team, and he can combine all of that moving full speed up the ice with the puck on his tape. We’ve been clamoring for Keith to have a mobile partner who might be able to cover up for his freewheeling and loss of mobility, and it seems like Forsling might be the right fit. Even if his defensive instincts are not exactly high level, he can get himself back in coverage well enough to break up or delay any rush enough to let the other four guys get back. No, it’s not the ideal scenario because it’s not Erik Karlsson or Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but he’s got the shell basics outline of the game those two play with still plenty of potential to be tapped into.

In a perfect world, Joel Quenneville realizes that he already has defensemen with skill sets more geared toward what he’s tried to get Forsling to do these past two years, and finally starts letting my special boy (yes, I am still giving him that title) off the leash a bit to play a style that fits him best. That might be with Keith, maybe with Murphy, it could even be with Seabrook if the Hawks and Seabs can get on the same page with a role like Sam outlined the other day. That’s the best and maybe only way you’re really gonna see what you have in the Fors.

But this isn’t a perfect world, so Quenneville will do the same shit for the third year and hope it works this time – something something definition of insanity – before Forsling gets sent back to A in January again. Hooray.

Carl Dahlstrom

11 Games, 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points, -2, 0 PIM

52.29 CF%, -5.29 CF% rel, 46.7 xGF%, -6.55 xGF% rel, 46 Zone Start Ratio

There isn’t too much you can glean from just 11 NHL games for a young defenseman, especially one who was in just his second year in North America. Dahlstrom has his good and bad moments, which is really shitty analysis, but again, it was just eleven games. What more do you want from me?

Digging into the pairings a bit, Dahlstrom spent more time with our ginger darling Connor Murphy than other blue-liner while he was in Chicago, with those two racking up 50:31 of ice time together at 5v5, or about three-to-five games worth of being a pairing. Dahlstrom only played about 120 5v5 minutes total away from Murphy. They posted a 52.53 CF% together, which was better than either of their marks away from each other, though Murphy had significantly more time without Dahlstrom than vice versa, and I don’t read anything into it for #5. But what it does show for Dahlstrom is that he has the goods to play at an acceptable level in the NHL if paired with a good partner.

Overall, I don’t really know what kind of future Dahlstrom has in Chicago. You have the obvious three of Keith, Nacho, and Murphy that will be hear for the long run, plus Rutta and Oesterle who if here will probably get minutes from this coach. Then you have Forsling, Jokiharju, and Ian Mitchell that the organization appear to be very high on. On top of all that, consider that you’re probably adding at least one or two high-level guys – one NHL d-man via trade or free agency, and ideally a top d-man prospect with the lottery pick – and you have a whole hell of a lot of guys in front of Dahlstrom. But besides that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

In all seriousness, the bottom pairing and depth d-man spots should be wide open for competition in camp next year, and Dahlstrom will likely be given the same shot as anyone to earn one of those spots. It’ll be up to him to do so.

Everything Else

Why’d They Hang Them So High? Perhaps In The Hopes It Would Make Them More Dead

By Sam Fels 2252 0

As Hess put it, our nightmare is over. The Hawks season has come to an end, and now they get the maximum amount of time to pick up the pieces, dust for prints, perform the tests, and try and diagnose and then prescribe. They certainly can’t complain the schedule will be too crunched to figure out what “The Plan” (it keeps coming up again) is going to be.

What will they find?

-As everyone has said though are hesitant to pin everything on, Corey Crawford going out was reasons 1-6 that this team did a face plant in front of everyone at the party including the girl they liked (this is no way ever happened to me in high school I assure you. Nope. Never).

We’ve said it a few times and it’s worth repeating. Since Crow went down the Hawks have the third-worst even-strength save-percentage, at .910. Crow’s was .935 before he got hurt, Last year it was .930, and he’s averaged .932 at evens the past four seasons. The Hawks gave up 112 goals in that time, and with Crow’s SV% that number would have been 81. Now, clearly it doesn’t work like that because Crow wouldn’t have started every game, but you see the problem.  Let’s throw in the penalty kill problems, where the Hawks had a .857 SV% after Crow got hurt, and when he did he was stopping shots at a .902 rate. Now, that number is astronomically higher than his career mark of .868, but again, it’s clear. Crow was worth anywhere from 10-15 goals, probably more. Or 8-10 points, maybe more.

Now you might say that’s still not enough to get the Hawks near the playoffs, but what we can’t calculate is how many goals for, and games overall, Crow might have changed. Goals change games. If Crow wasn’t letting in the terrible goals that the cavalcade of nincompoops and halfwits the Hawks rolled out there did, opponents couldn’t sit back as often and early as they did this season. Things may have been more open. The Hawks wouldn’t have looked so beaten, so early, so many times with Crow behind them, giving them the confidence he could hold the other team still at least. He gives them a platform to get ahead in games more often, and the assuredness they could stay there. One-goal deficits instead of two. Those things make huge differences in an NHL where basically every team is the same save a few degrees. I think that’s good for a few more points.

While the Hawks and/or their press say there’s no reason to think that Crawford won’t be ready in September, quite frankly I need a reason to think that he will. He’s still been nowhere near the ice lately, and the Hawks never used the words, “shut down.” He just didn’t make the bell. Maybe you’ll get pics of summer workouts. Then again, maybe you won’t. Then what? Me, I’d let him try and give the World Championships a whirl if he’s able and willing, just so he and the team can find out if he can play a stretch of games at all without being sidelined by a passing breeze or aggressive fart.

-But that’s not all. Joining the Hawks in the bottom-10 of SV% at even since Crow went to the land of wind and ghosts are San Jose, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and Philly, all playoff teams. Only the Devils matched that with a bottom-10 shooting percentage as well (so what the hell are the Devils doing in the playoffs anyway?) So clearly, the Hawks didn’t score enough.

And their chance-creation wasn’t terrible. They were second in attempts per game, first in scoring chances. But middle of the pack in high-danger changes for per game. Some, and I’m terrified this will the front office who do, will conclude the Hawks didn’t create enough high-danger chances because they lack some drooling monolith in front. I remain unconvinced of that. The culprit to me is that the forwards had to do all the creating and converting, because this team got nothing from its defense.

33 goals, 115 points from the Hawks d-men. And that’s all 11 that played. Compare that to the 56 goals and 197 points the Predators got from their eight d-men who played significant time. In practice, the Hawks forwards had to get the puck from their zone to the attacking one, recover it, create all the chances while getting to the net, and finish them. Clearly it proved too much of a task.

This is the biggest thing the Hawks have to solve. They need to find at least one puck-mover, and they probably have to stop considering Duncan Keith one. Gustafsson has done enough to earn another look next year as a bottom-four puck-mover. But they need one more, and I don’t know where that one is. Jokiharju is going to need seasoning. Forsling will have to make quite the leap. They’re ain’t shit on shit in the free agent market. They’ll have to get creative here.

-Because with a mobile and at least threatening blue line, this forward corps has a lot of hope. If Dylan Sikura is all they think he is and Vinnie Hinostroza is what the numbers say he is and EggShell can actually play, there’s a top nine here a lot of teams would envy. Yeah I know. “THEY’RE TOO SMALL AND DEY DON’T HIT AND DEYRE NOT CHICAGO TOUGH.” Bite me. Give me all the speed and skill you can shove into a needle and inject. Play faster. Blitz teams like the Hawks were at times.

A lot of work to be done, but not as much as some might think.

Everything Else

Game #80 – Hawks vs. Blues Preview/Racquet Restringing: I Don’t Wanna Be Found At The Sound Of The Bell

By Sam Fels 1675 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 32-37-10   Blues 43-30-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN (It’s Rivalry Night, Don’t Ya Know?)

THE COLD AND DESPERATE: St. Louis Gametime

This is what it’s come to. This “small club” mentality. We used to mock those (i.e. the Blues) whose goals and aims, for fans and players alike, was merely dragging a superior rival down. We laughed that they had nothing else to hang on to. Remember April ’11, when the Blues were determined to knock the Hawks out of the playoffs? Sharp rushed back on one knee and Toews was able to take advantage of Ty Conklin having the angle awareness of a drunken sloth to win it in overtime. That wasn’t the last time that’s happened between these teams of course, the Blues claiming minor/moral victories here and there while the Hawks collected the real baubles. Pictures in a box at home…yellowing and green with mold…

And now this is where we are. The only hope to have a smile about this season is two games with the wholly desperate Blues, who sit one point outside the playoffs but with a game in hand on the Avalanche, who hold the last spot. Those two play on the last night of the season, so even if the Hawks were to somehow get around having unemployed rodeo clowns in net and take both of these next two in regulation, the Blues could still pull themselves out of the muck by beating the Avs in Denver (assuming the Avs don’t beat the Sharks tomorrow night). Further complicating matters is the two teams are tied on ROW at the moment at 40. So it’s going to be white knuckle time for everyone.

And it hurts to admit it would bring a smile to my face if the Hawks cost the Blues a playoff spot. We’re supposed to be bigger than this. The season is lost and our eyes are always supposed to be pointed higher. But I’m a small and petty man, and dragging someone into the muck with you, especially if it’s these cretins… if that’s the only catharsis we’re going to get then let’s have it. Just to let them know they’ll never be free. Plus there’s the added bonus that missing the playoffs will send that organization into an existential crises that can’t help but have hilarious results.

Then again, all the Hawks might have to do is just remain upright and let the Blues do what they do best…Blues all over themselves. They had a home date with the nothing-to-play-for Caps on Monday and promptly blew a lead to lose 4-2. They gave up a touchdown to the Coyotes on Saturday night. They lost to the Knights before that. Only the Avs hiccup in California so far has even allowed the Blues to have a shred of hope. It would suck for the Hawks to be their lifeline, you have to admit.

It’s not like the problems have changed much since we last saw the Blues a couple weeks ago. Jake Allen can’t put it together, and yet they’re determined to shove the job right down his throat. Carter Hutton, who kept the team afloat in January, but admittedly fell apart in February, has played twice since March 1. He got lit up by both Dallas and Arizona. So they’re going to almost certainly let Allen take all three of the remaining games, and he’s barely been ok of late. He had a .916 in March, which is all right, but all right might not save a team that currently has Kyle Fucking Brodziak at a #2 center. That’s what happens when your GM goes into sell-mode but only like halfway and the rest of the NHL can’t bury your half-in, half-out team.

That’s another problem for the Blues. They don’t score a ton, even though they carry the play and chances in most games. They have one genuine, class finisher in Tarasenko, which you knew. But most everyone else who did at least a passable impression of one has gone cold. Schenn has one goal in eight. Schwartz has two in 11, and both of those came in the same game. Alex Steen was dropped into a vat of DIP. The only forward other than Tank who’s on anything resembling a hot streak is Patrik “Yes Somehow He’s Still Here” Berglund, with four in his last six. And he has a such a sterling rep for showing up when it counts. If Tarasenko doesn’t fire them into the playoffs, ain’t no one else gonna. Thankfully for them they get a face-full of JF Berube or Jeff Glass or whatever other form Quenneville and Bowman can dig out of their ear to play goal the next two games.

As for the Hawks… oh christ who gives a flying fuck? You know the drill here. Some dope in net, and basically the same lineup you’ve seen. Maybe Q will break up the “Kids” line of Top Cat, EggShell, and Sikura because they got worked in Colorado and there’s no sheltering them on the road. Maybe he’ll continue to see what they can do in the deep end. Blay Killman will probably exit stage right after getting a run-out in front of his college and drinking buddies in Denver. That should see Jan Rutta return. And more of Gustafsson-Murphy, which might be the only pairing you see again next year given how things have gone for them. These are the lights were trying to find our way with.

Three more to go, people.

 

Game #80 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #77 – Sharks vs. Hawks Preview/Bullet Club Reunion: But Just A Glimpse

By Sam Fels 1881 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Sharks 43-23-9   Hawks 31-36-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THEY CAN’T AFFORD IT EITHER: Fear The Fin

A friend of the program, one Kevin Kujawa–guitarist and singer for great local band of the past Mannequin Men– used to refer to the first game after the trade deadline as “New Toy Day.” Well, the Hawks didn’t get that this year as it was clearance sale time, but Hawks fans will get some of that this week as the Hawks show off what they hope will be a couple pieces that matter in the future.

The first one arrives tonight in Victor Ejdsell, probably referred to from here on out as “Eggshell.” He’s a big center, whom they’re probably already envisioning taking Anismov’s place so they can punt him to the nearest taker this summer that’s also on his list (YOU’RE ON OUR LIST. HE NAMED NAMES!). Ejdsell comes with plus-hands, so we’re told, though the Hawks are probably already telling him to get his ass to the front of the net which will kneecap his playmaking abilities we’re told he has a bit. Whatever, there will be plenty of time to worry about that next year. The big concern is whether or not he can skate enough to make any of it matter, or if he’s just a monolith the Hawks hope they can park at the other crease but which hurts you in every other aspect. He’d better be the former, otherwise the trade of a definitely useful Ryan Hartman is just simply running in place (because he was a first-round pick at #30, which seemingly everyone evaluating that trade forgot). The Hawks were after Ejdsell when he chose the Predators, and generally the European players they’ve been hot on tend to work out at least ok (Jan Rutta excluded and they’re going to give that one another go anyway).

The other one is Dylan Sikura, who will arrive Thursday. We’ll talk more about him then but he’ll be an interesting watch because he’s got a big chance to more than just ballast on the team next year, even if he’s in desperate need of a sandwich. Just a shame he couldn’t bring Adam Gaudette with him.

As for the rest of the story with the Hawks, there isn’t one really. Toews is still out, with some mystery injury that definitely isn’t either “tired of this shit” or “has been playing with something for months and can’t be bothered anymore but don’t think it’s a head injury” or “we’re actually trying to tank.” After Anton Forsberg looked decent against the Isles he’ll get the start again, but we know what it’s looked like when he’s tried to put two starts together. So JF Berube should probably be properly warmed and stretched, as Q pulls a goalie switch for the 46th time this season.

This game matters a little to the Sharks, though not that much. They’ve pretty much held off either the Kings or Ducks for the second spot in the Pacific, especially with the seven-game winning streak they’re currently on (you can do that?). They’re four up on the Ducks and have a game in hand, and six up on the Kings with a game in hand. So they’ll start the playoffs at home against either, and really they should beat either. But these are the Sharks, and without a healthy Thornton anything is possible for them. Pavelski has been great at center, and that should be enough to see off either of their California brethren. But again, the Sharks have found a way in the past to drive their car into a swimming pool.

After a hiccup around the turn of the year, Martin Jones has been excellent the past two months and the Sharks would enter either series with the better goalie, which is a leg up (sorry Jonathan Quick but we know what you are). While it doesn’t jump out at you, the Sharks are deeper than most teams even without Thornton. Pavelski and Evander “I’m The Other Fuckstick Named…” Kane have been quite the force on the top line, Couture and Hertl have dovetailed on the second line, and Tierney andLeBanc have been a surprise on the third. A Thornton return along with Joonas Donskoi (who’s only day-to-day) only adds to that. They’ll be deeper up front than either the Ducks or Kings, that’s for sure.

You know the story on the blue line. Marc-Eduoard “This Is What Seabrook Was Supposed To Be” Vlasic and Justin Braun are the human shield for Brent Burns on the second pairing, and he simply runs wild. Again, a unique weapon to have. And Brenden Dillon and Dylan “Fine And” DeMelo on the third pairing aren’t really a disaster. Again, sneaky depth.

Even with all that, it’s hard to know if the Sharks are that good. Their special teams for sure are, and that’s gotten them a long way. But this is one of the more boring Sharks teams we can remember, who play in a terrible division and when you watch them nothing really jumps out. Then again, that’s the exact kind of team that comes alive in the playoffs when things get choppier. Secondly, in that division there’s no one who’s going to turn up the pace on them that they can’t handle, which is what Edmonton did last year and the Penguins the year before. You could see if they ran into a misplaced Colorado team in the second round where that could be a problem, but that’s one line and specifically one guy. Vegas, if it somehow shambles its way out of the first round even without Fleury, will see it all pop against the vastly more experienced Sharks. Really, this team merely has to stand still to get to a conference final, where it probably will be laced by Nashville or Winnipeg, assuming there’s anything left of either of those teams after they’re done bludgeoning each other in the second round.

Let’s have fun with our new toys these last two weeks. It’s all we got.

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How Not To Write About The Hawks Elimination

By Sam Fels 2308 0

So originally I planned to do some wistful, eulogy-type thing about the Hawks being officially eliminated from the playoffs. And I may yet still tomorrow or Friday. But then I saw this, and I feel like it’s at the root of so much horseshit Hawks thinking right now that I thought it best to dissect it until it’s dust.

Though at the top, I should mention that Steve Rosenbloom has been a big supporter of ours and a genuine fan, so I don’t take pleasure in it (well, not THAT much pleasure). And Rosey is always up for a good argument, so I don’t think he’ll mind too much. With that, let’s go through what Rosenbloom had to say today.

Just like that, on consecutive nights, the United Center was eliminated from the playoffs.

On Monday night, the Bulls lost to the Knicks. Bang, officially out. First goal officially met

On Tuesday night, the Blackhawks lost to the Avalanche. Bang, officially out. Firing speculation season officially opens.

Ok… not sure what the Bulls have to do with anything but I’ll allow it. Though the Hawks and Bulls are certainly in different spots in their arc but let’s save our breath for when we need it.

Since winning the Stanley Cup in 2015, their third in six years, the Hawks haven’t won a playoff series. Geez, last year they didn’t even win one playoff game, a pantsing that came one postseason after losing a seven-game series to the evil, dreaded Blues.

Yeah, the thing is they didn’t win a playoff series for two years after the first one, so this isn’t that abnormal? I mean we’ve gone through this before. And when you say seven-game series, you’re basically saying the Hawks lost a coin flip. Which it was. But hey, if you want the Blues recent history instead of the Hawks, that’s your toasted ravioli/mucus to choke on.

Getting swept in a playoff series was deemed unacceptable last year. People lost jobs. Big verbal fingers were wagged. So, what does missing the playoffs altogether for the first time in 10 years bring?

The firing of GM Stan Bowman?

The end of Joel Quenneville as coach?

Both?

The argument for firing Bowman starts with Brent Seabrook’s inexplicable contract that still has six years and more than $41 million remaining with a no-movement clause that makes it less a playing contract than a prison sentence.

Look, I will certainly listen to arguments for firing one of or both of Stan and Q. It certainly should be brought up. But…but… I’m no insider, but even I know that Bryan Bickell’s contract and Seabrook’s weren’t all Stan’s idea. That doesn’t mean Stan was willing to see either of them walk, but as we’ve seen with Antti Niemi, Brandon Saad, and a couple others, he will pull the trigger on some parts when he feels they get too expensive.

Second, Seabrook’s extension was signed three months after that third Cup. Yes, it was too long and yes it was for too much money, but what kind of rocks would it have taken to just let him walk? Or trade him? After he had just skated like 30 minutes a game for two straight months? It appears that’s an organizational policy to not do that, and I don’t think that’s Stan’s policy. Also, name me another GM who just let a top pairing or top line player simply walk out the door? You could argue Marc-Andre Fleury, but the Penguins had Matt Murray already taking over. Again, this Seabrook contract is bad, but the alternatives, especially at the time, weren’t nearly as clear as everyone wants to believe they are now.

The argument also extends to the no-movement clauses given to former heroes such as Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith. Toews isn’t the No. 1 center on a Cup winner anymore the way Keith isn’t a No. 1 defenseman on a future champion.

I know this is convenient and all, but Toews is closing in on a 60-point season which isn’t what you might remember him doing but he’s hardly a bum. And he’s been seriously unlucky to be at that total. Trading Toews to leave the Hawks with Nick Schmaltz and a handful of themselves at center is in a word, “lunacy.”

Keith is Thirty-Fucking-Four. You got a two-time Norris winner for barely $5 million a year. He’s been one of the biggest bargains in the league for a decade. Suddenly he’s just ballast? Yeah ok maybe he’s not top pairing anymore, but you’d still be moving him for 70 cents on the dollar at best. He can probably still take second-pairing minutes. And also we have no idea if that NMC is that big of a hinderance because the Hawks haven’t been motivated to ask because… well Duncan Keith wasn’t bad until this season, and “bad” is kind of strong.

And then there are such things as curiously big contracts for defensemen Jan Rutta and Erik Gustafsson while remaining a franchise strapped by the salary cap.

Except they’re not really strapped by the cap anymore, especially with it going up. Yeah these deals are high, but only by 500k or so and as we’ve previously discussed, the Hawks might have $12 million or more to play with. And no one needing an extension just yet, after the trading of Ryan Hartman. Which Rosenbloom strangely doesn’t mention.

The argument for firing Quenneville starts with that awful team defense and the painfully regular inability to protect a lead. Some of that blame is mitigated by the loss of star goalie Corey Crawford, but defensive responsibility team-wide has been hard to find.

Ok, before I get to the half-dismissal of Crow being hurt as the biggest reason the Hawks blow chunks, you just said four of the Hawks d-men suck deep pond scum (and you’ll allude to a fifth later), and now you’re blaming the coach that they can’t play defense?

Ok, to Crow. Since he got hurt, the Hawks SV% at ES is .910, second-worst in the league. Crow’s was .935. Yeah, ok, maybe unsustainable, but with that SV% the Hawks would have given up 23 goals less just at even-strength. I don’t know how many points that results in, but it’s more than a little. Even a .920 at evens would have seen the Hawks give up 11 less goals, and I’d be willing to be Crow would have eclipsed that because he’s been over .930 for five of the past six seasons . And we’re not even getting to the PK which has suck into the dirt to the points of being past the Earth’s core. “Some” of the blame?!

The Hawks have allowed 228 goals, fourth-worst in the Western Conference. Blame Bowman for not having a backup goalie who can win. Blame Quenneville for not devising a system that protects clearly inferior goalies. And blame the players for not executing and for not scoring the way the Hawks must.

In goals for per 60 minutes, according to NaturalStatTrick.com, the Hawks rank 18th. They used to be the scariest team in the league. Now they’re in the lottery.

Yeah I don’t know what system protects goalies that aren’t even cracking .905. Jacques Fucking Lemaire would have a hard time with this lot. We’ve already been over the blue line. So your point about Bowman is correct, except he’s also the guy who found Niemi, Emery, Raanta, and Darling as backups, so he’s allowed a fuck-up here and there? You just said they were cap strapped so they needed a backup on the cheap.

Ok, the Hawks don’t score a lot. They also have the sixth-worst shooting percentage. They also create the most scoring chances per 60 minutes. Know where I got that? NaturalStatTrick.com. Finish is a skill, yes, but it’s impossible to ignore luck here.

If you’re ranking causes of death this season, Crawford’s injury is No. 1. Then comes the loss of Marian Hossa to a skin affliction. No. 3 is trading defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson. Then the loss of Brandon Saad – or at least the loss of his ability to play hockey, which came at the cost of Artemi Panarin, with whom Patrick Kane won a scoring title.

Crow’s injury is numbers 1-10, but I won’t push it. Fair enough on Hossa. But Hammer? Really? Weren’t you just bitching three paragraphs ago that the Hawks didn’t move along a slowing, aging, stay-at-home d-man who sucks now and now you’re bitching they did move along a slowing, aging, stay-at-home d-man who sucks now for a younger, faster, cheaper model? I don’t think both of these things can be true.

Ok, Panarin’s gone. But Debrincat has 25 goals and he didn’t get any of the PP looks that Panarin did. Essentially, Panarin’s goals have been replaced. So your problem there is with Q, no? For making him a third liner for a good portion of the season and having a power play that is causing tooth decay throughout the land?

Crawford’s injury is not on Quenneville or Bowman. Ditto, Hossa. Hjalmarsson is Bowman’s fault, same as the Saad trade, although Saad gets a ton of blame, too, as do the core players with no-movement clauses.

Is this where I have to point out that Saad is basically the same player he’s been in terms of possession, attempts, and chances, and just none of them or going in? Or do I do that later? Or are you blaming him for not being a 35-goal guy which he has yet to be in the NHL? Tell me where that goes, I’m not sure.

You can blame Quenneville for the lousy power play, but look at the talent out there. I’d blame the big names, too.

Where’s the line for “You made Jordan Oesterle a PP QB or a quarter of the season?”

One knock on Quenneville is that he hates young players, something that goes back to Nick Leddy. But if he hated kids, how has Gustafsson gotten another chance after making the awful, series-deciding mistake in Game 7 against the Blues in 2016?

And look at Alex DeBrincat and Nick Schmaltz, youngsters showing they could play in the top six for years. Heck, DeBrincat looks like he’s threatening to become Kane 2.0.

Top Cat has spent most of the season being a third line RW when he’s a top six LW, so his scoring has been somewhat miraculous. It took 30 games to get Schmaltz into the middle over Artem “I Skate Like Something Died In My Pants” Anisimov. So while Q isn’t the dungeon master of young talent he’s portrayed by some, he’s also not the child-whisperer either. And Q didn’t want DeBrincat on the roster at all to start the year, by the by.

And Bowman gets credit for the drafting and development of that talent. This is how the game works. It’s tangled, the blame and the credit. And then there’s this question:

Who’s available and who’s better?

Tyler Dellow.

Quenneville trails only Scotty Bowman in all-time regular-season wins. Since the start of the 1997 playoffs, Quenneville is tied with Bowman with three Cups. Nobody has won more.

This always annoys me. With the shootout and overtime rules coaching wins are horribly inflated. Q would still be top ten but like, c’mon. What if Al Arbour never had ties?

Quenneville won those Cups with Stan Bowman, although both received help from Dale Tallon.

Who received help from Mike Smith, believe it or not.

So, you can fire Bowman or Quenneville, or both, and you could convince yourself you have legitimate reasons.

Seems like you just did for yourself.

But I wouldn’t. I wouldn’t fire either of them. Their resumes earn one more chance to return to Cup contention. I think the case to fire Bowman is stronger, but I’d give both a do-over.

Weren’t you just complaining that Seabrook and Keith and Toews got extensions because of resumes and not for what they would do in the future? On the nights the Hawks clearly don’t give a shit, I’m not sure they’re all that concerned with Q’s resume. Also, you just said Stan owes a portion of his resume to Tallon, and then torched the part that doesn’t for nearly 700 words.

Because here’s the hard truth: If Crawford doesn’t come back as Crawford next season, then this team is going nowhere and John McDonough might as well serve as President/GM/coach to save the organ-I-zation some cash.

Don’t think he won’t try.

 

 

 

 

 

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Game #74 – Avalanche vs. Hawks Preview/ :

By Sam Fels 1865 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Avalanche 39-25-8   Hawks 30-34-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

REAL MEN OUT OF SNOW: Mile High Hockey

The Hawks will get some say in the bottom of the Western Conference race, or in that they can decide who they’ll gift two points in that race on most nights and greatly anger someone somewhere. Sunday they blew three leads to keep St. Louis in it (we can only hope to set up a deeper heart-cutting for the last week in April when they play twice), and though Colorado holds the 1st wild card they’re only two points from dropping completely out of it. So the Hawks can play spoiler again, a role which they’ve been particularly shit at ever since it became their calling.

Not much has changed since the Avs were here just two weeks ago. Meaning they still have the best player on the planet in current form right now, so not much else matters with them because Nathan MacKinnon will make it all ok. Since he was last here, when the Hawks miraculously held him to just one goal, he’s poured in 11 points in six games. He’s four points off the scoring lead in the NHL even though he missed eight games. He leads the league in points per game at 1.39 and if he would have played a full 82 would’ve ended up somewhere around 114 points. Quite simply he’s been freakish, so if you’re headed to the UC tonight you’ll be treated to the sight of a player playing about as well as anyone has managed in years.

And because someone has to come along for the ride, Mikko Ratanen has 11 points in his last five games as his linemate. Ratanen does more than simply stand around and let Mac K bank the puck off of him into the net, and given his size and where he shoots from his 16.4% shooting percentage might be closer to the norm for his career than just a spike. The following years will tell, but the Avs might have a budding power forward on their hands if they can introduce him to a kettlebell this summer.

Adding to the roll for Denver is that Semyon Varlamov has gotten hot, letting in only six goals in his last five appearances. Between these two, the Avs really should lock up a playoff spot no one saw coming. Their schedule is somewhat kind to them from here on out as well. They get the Hawks twice, the fading Knights twice, the Flyers at home, and then a California swing that will probably tell the tale. Those Knights games ought to be interesting, as that very well might be the first round matchup and the Avs will have the pleasure of pilfering that outfit in their first real test. It basically will come down to the Avs have MacKinnon and the Knights don’t.

And then it gets scary, because if the Avs are slung out to the Pacific and can put the knife into the false gods of Vegas, there’s really no reason they can’t beat San Jose or LA or Anaheim or whatever other dreck is left out there. The Avs in the conference final? God help us and this league is a hell toilet. Anyway, pretty impressive for a team that was supposed to be at the beginning of a rebuild. But then I guess all it takes in this league is for your #1 line to freak the fuck off and there you are, along with goaltending. We did watch the Hawks the past two years, after all.

For the Hawks, Matthew Highmore dinged himself on Sunday and is out, so they’ve called up Andreas Martinsen who can’t do anything but will run around like a meth-head for a while and pick a stupid fight and Foley and Konroyd will slather themselves in Worcester sauce over it and “DATS WUT DIS TEAM HAS BEEN MISSING ALL SEASON MY FRENT!” bullshit that already has me kicking various wood furniture around the house. After JF Berube was given the chance to grab the brass ring of backup next year and let it and Patrik Berglund’s shot through him, Anton Forsberg will get another chance to shoot his confidence in the face with a bazooka tonight.

Yeah… I don’t know. Only seven of these left after this. Also, we’ll be recording the podcast during this one, so send in your questions on Twitter during the day if you have something you want to know or just hear us bitch about .

 

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Friday Thoughts: Gustafsson, Rutta, And Last Night’s Pummeling

By Sam Fels 2146 0

It’s been a couple days so we should get to it. Whatever your list is of grievances that you’d like to air by firing Stan Bowman, if you have one, you can add two more.

I’m sure the Hawks thought it would slip under the radar, and it kind of did because everything they do these days slips under the radar because almost all of the city doesn’t give a flying fuck about them anymore. Either way, the Hawks re-signed both Eric Gustafsson and Jan Rutta to extensions, and combined they will cost $3.5 million combined next year.

I’m going to try and be reasonable about this….

WHAT IN THE HOLY FUCK IS THIS???!!!!

Now that that’s out, let’s get to it. There’s really no other way to dress this. Both Eric Gustafsson and Jan Rutta suck. They might not be the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked, but they’re not far from the team photo. Neither one of these guys will ever rise to the level of anything more than a third-pairing d-man.

For literally no reason, Stan Bowman doubled Gustafsson’s salary. All he had to offer him was about 700K. Now, you might think the difference of about $500K really isn’t worth worrying about, but as we’ve seen, every dollar counts in a cap era, even if the cap goes up. And Gustafsson has shown nothing to warrant being offered much more than a pointed finger to the door. If he were going to provide offensive spark, we would have seen it by now. He’s 25 and basically never really flashed in the NHL. How much longer are you going to wait? And who was Stan bidding against? Who was coming to save Gustafsson from Chicago?

The Rutta one is even more baffling. He can’t regularly crack the lineup even after the trade of Michal Kempny, and yet you just hand him $2.3 million? What is it he does? Is Stan so fixated by the fact he’s been able to spasm six goals into the net and no one else on the blue line can find the right zip code with their shots? Again, what was Rutta going to get on the open market?

Here’s a list of UFA d-men you could probably get for $2.3 million this summer: Calvin de Haan, Cody Ceci, Luca Sbisa, John Moore, maybe Thomas Hickey, Dalton Prout, the aforementioned Kempny. Most of these guys suck, and yet all of them are better than Rutta.

It’s not like Stan hasn’t been able to admit a mistake. Fuck, he just traded Ryan Hartman and he wasn’t a mistake (and I’m fairly sure that trade is going to work out as having “sucked”). I have no idea why he’s doubling down on these two, but if it costs the Hawks a higher quality free agent this summer or a trade, it honestly probably should be the final nail in his coffin.

-I don’t think we can state long enough and hard enough just how pathetic the Hawks top players were last night. And you can toss out all the caveats you want–Canes are more desperate, they’ve always been a good possession team, blah blah blah–to have Corsi marks under 20% you actually have to try to do so.

I try and reserve myself about games where the Hawks haven’t looked like they care. Losing teams always look “flat,” or at least do most of the time. But the Hawks are a good possession team, or at least they have been. And for their top line and top pairing to simply get skulled by a team that doesn’t actually have a top line is simply unacceptable. You can’t say they were all there, or fully focused, to be that bad.

I can’t ask this team much more than to actually just show up and finish out the season professionally. Last night was anything but. That falls squarely on the leadership. They’re not going to fire Toews and Keith and Seabrook as captains, at least I doubt it. So you know where that goes. But I’m guessing Rocky and McD are too chickenshit to let that happen, nor do they have the scruples to replace Stan competently (which would involve probably firing Q anyway). So if the Hawks don’t care now, why am I going to assume they will next year at this time after another seven months of listening to a coach’s voice it’s becoming more and more apparent they’ve tired of?