Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Erik Gustafsson

By John Pullega 1867 0

Sixty points. First-pairing minutes. A league-leading power play from middle December onward. A $1.2 million cap hit. These are some of the statistics that surround Erik Gustafsson. He’s the center of gravity that draws analytics nerds, construction-working meatballs, GMs, coaches, and agents alike to ask, “Just what the fuck are we looking at here?” Is Gus the future bedrock on the backend or is he a bum in a talented man’s clothes?

2018–19 Stats

79 GP – 17 G, 43 A, 60 P

50.24 CF% (2.1 CF% Rel), 60.8 oZS%

53.24 GF% (5.37 Rel GF%), 45.5 xGF% (0.64 Rel xGF% )

Avg. TOI 22:35

FFUD Review of 2018–19 Erik Gustafsson

A Brief History: Erik Gustafsson led all Blackhawks D-men in goals, assists, and points, both at even strength and on the PP. Of Hawks D-men who played at least 41 games (so, minus Jokiharju and Koekkoek), he led in CF% and CF% Rel. Only five D-men in the NHL scored more points than Gustafsson last year. And of course, upon his insertion as the #1 PP unit’s quarterback on December 18, 2018, no team had a higher PP% than the Blackhawks.

No matter how you slice it, Erik Gustafsson was an offensive force last year. You don’t need a map to find that.

But his offensiveness extended to his defense—you know, the very title of his position—because he was a botched graveside burial in his own zone. This is where we need a couple maps to understand just how fucking awful Gus was on the defensive side of the puck.

A3Z tool from Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) and CJ Turtoro (@CJTDevil)

This tool is fairly forgiving to Gus. The offense and own-zone exit ability are on full display. Now, look at the ENTRY DEFENSE section.

The only thing objectively bad about it is his breakups per 60 minutes. What this means is that when opposing skaters go directly at Gus with the puck, more likely than not, he won’t break the entry up. On the plus side, Gus doesn’t allow too many opposing skaters to skate into the zone with possession (i.e., not dumping it in), in terms of both raw possession entries (PossEntriesAllowed60) and the percentage of entries with possession allowed (PossEntry% Allowed).

We can’t say the same about his partner, Duncan Keith. Last year, teams tended to attack Keith on the entry with better success. This means that generally, opponents got into the zone with possession on Keith’s side rather than Gus’s.

Why talk about Keith though? Does that mean that Gus is better on defense than we give him credit for? Are we deflecting by using Keith as a comp? Do you think I’d be doing all this if that were the case, dear reader?

Charts by Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath)

So, we’ve established that Keith is more of a hole in terms of possession entries than Gus. It’s what happens after Gus gets stuck in his own zone that’s the menace.

These two heatmaps compare opponent shot rates with Gus on the ice (left) vs. without Gus on the ice (right). More red means more opponent shots in that area.

Both are really red, because the Blackhawks defense—and I cannot and will not ever stress this enough—is more embarrassing than having your first period in white pants. But it somehow got worse with Gus on the ice.

With Gus on defense, you’re looking at a higher concentration of high-danger shots AND more shots from the top of the circle on the side Gus plays on. Recall too that the only D-man on the ice for more high-danger goals than Gus last year was his partner, Duncan Keith. And though Keith’s heatmaps were bad, they weren’t this bad. (You can guess whose were worst on the team overall.)

In short, last year saw opponents enter the zone on Keith’s side and do a ton of damage on Gus’s side. This is their top pairing. Very good, very conducive to winning.

This is what we’ve been saying about Gus for a while. The offense and creativity are all there, but he’s stagnant ditch water in his own zone. The question is, which side of the coin has more weight?

It Was the Best of Times: Gustafsson pairs with Connor Murphy and continues his incredible offensive output. He vastly outpaces his xGF% just like last year, and the PP ranks in the top five based on Gustafsson’s vision and creativity at the point—both of which are direct results of playing with Patrick Kane more than everyone, just like last year. Murphy cancels out Gustafsson’s complete lack of ability in his own zone, and Gus’s offense far outweighs his poor defense. He scores 55 points. Essentially, the Hawks get Brent Burns lite.

It Was the BLURST of Times: Gus doesn’t spend most of his time with Patrick Kane, and he regresses to the mean. Opponents wait just a second longer to catch Gus on some of his ill-advised own-zone dangles and exploit his John Wayne tendencies. He and Keith continue to get buried in their own zone. The power play flattens out, but this time, it isn’t a result of Patrick Kane running on fumes.

Prediction: Gustafsson is an offensive powerhouse. He continues to outperform his xGF% and doesn’t see an offensive regression. The same power play unit that came to life after Gus became THE GUY continues to run roughshod, finishing in the top 10 on the year. (There’s a concern that it won’t produce, based on how the PP finished last year. I think that’s a valid concern, but I also think that it was more a result of Kane running on fumes than anything.)

There’s one huge caveat to this: Patrick Kane must stay healthy. Kane has the same sort of gap between GF% and xGF% throughout his career that we saw from Gus last year. And Gus’s performance correlates with whether he’s playing with Kane.

  • When Gus plays with Kane at 5v5, his GF% is 57.69. Without Kane, it’s 46.09.
  • When Gus plays with Kane at 5v5, his SCGF% is 56.34. Without, it’s 47.17.
  • Of Gus’s 60 points last year, his breakdown was:
    • 60 total points. 42 of them (70%) came playing with Kane
    • 42 even-strength points. 25 of them (59.5%) came playing with Kane
    • 18 PP points. 17 of them (94%) came playing with Kane

You can see similar performance tracks when Gus plays with Toews, DeBrincat, and Strome in similar situations, but they aren’t quite as extreme. All this is to say that Gus doesn’t carry it by himself. When he plays with top-tier talent, he looks like a top-tier player. When he doesn’t, he doesn’t. What’s that worth to you?

So, what the fuck are we looking at with Gus? An outstanding complementary player. A good, creative play maker. Good enough to score 60 points with the right teammates, but not good enough to create by himself. Reliant on a generational talent. A farce in his own zone. Probably most valuable as a trade piece.

In other words, we’re looking at the Blackhawks’s next 6 x $6 million man.

Stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, Corsica.hockey, NHL.com, HockeyViz.com, and the Sznajder–Turtoro A3Z Player Comp Tool

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist

Carl Dahlstrom

Calvin de Haan

Hockey

Pictures of Matchstick Men – ’19–’20 Blackhawks Player Previews – Calvin de Haan

By John Pullega 1818 0

After last year’s personal affront of a blue line made it easier than ever to forget that just three years ago the Blackhawks were having a parade, Stan Bowman knew he had to answer for his backend farce. The answer he came up with was Calvin de Haan, a defensive defenseman who will probably miss the first month or two while rehabbing a major shoulder surgery. But the Hawks got him for a song, and when he’s healthy he’s effective, so there’s something to look forward to.

2018–19 Stats

74 GP – 1 G, 13 A, 14 P

55.64 CF%, 56.41 oZS%

47.06 GF% (-5.88 Rel GF%), 55.12 xGF% (-1.62 xGF% Rel)

Avg. TOI 18:31

Canes Country Review of Calvin de Haan

A Brief History: The most important thing to remember about Calvin de Haan is that he’s very unlikely to start the season on the ice. He had off-season surgery on his right shoulder in May and had a 4–6-month recovery timetable. It’s looking more likely that he’ll fall closer to the end of that recovery projection, meaning that he probably won’t be back until November. On top of that, de Haan has had surgery on his left shoulder a few times in the past. But Bowman got de Haan for Anton Forsberg and Gustav Forsling. So, de Haan could miss the entire 2019–20 season and the Hawks still likely win the trade.

History of shoulder problems aside, de Haan had a pretty good year last year for a defensive defenseman. His possession numbers were excellent in Carolina, even when you account for how much time he spent in the offensive zone. That 47.06 goals-for percentage (GF%) doesn’t inspire confidence on its face, but it could be a function of the fact that Carolina is more of a possession juggernaut than a pure offensive power. Expect that to rise if the Hawks’s offense is still clicking, and there’s no reason to think it won’t.

In addition to his strong possession numbers, de Haan played second-pairing minutes for the eighth-ranked Hurricanes PK. He played about 147 minutes on the PK last year and was on the ice for 20 goals, which is generally fine. It’s definitely better than what Keith (166 minutes, 31 GA) and Seabrook (166 minutes, 29 GA) did last year.

In short, de Haan is a stay-at-home defenseman who, when healthy, can make the Hawks blue line a bit stouter than it was last year. He also played over 300 minutes with TvR last year, a primer for what playing with the Hawks will be like.

It Was the Best of Times: de Haan comes back in early November and pairs with a waiting Adam Boqvist. That’s the role de Haan typically played in Carolina, where he spent most of his time paired with Justin Faulk, another offensively minded, defensively stunted defenseman. Given his stay-at-home tendencies and Boqvist’s NHL-ready offense, these two seem destined to come together at some point. Might as well be as soon as possible.

On the PK, de Haan and Murphy take over the first-pairing duties, sparing us the horror of watching that Keith–Seabrook snuff film, at least until the second unit comes out.

It Was the BLURST of Times: de Haan comes back to pair with Erik Gustafsson on the top pairing, because this is the reality the Brain Trust wants. Gustafsson gets exposed as little more than a third-pairing bum slayer, and de Haan floats between covering for Gus, Seabrook, and Maatta, sometimes all in the same game. Then, de Haan ends up on a PK unit BEHIND Keith–Seabrook.

Alternatively, de Haan’s shoulders are in worse shape than anticipated, and he misses most of the 19–20 season. Any “The Hawks have an outside shot at the playoffs” talk turns to ash in our mouths as we watch Keith and Seabrook get mutilated all year again.

Prediction: de Haan is the consummate babysitter and as close as the Hawks will ever again get to having Hjalmarsson on the team. The problem is that the Hawks have three D-men who need to be babysat for each babysitter they have. Murphy and de Haan can’t cover for all of Keith, Gus, Seabrook, Dahlstrom, Maatta, and Boqvist (if he makes it here) at the same time.

So, we’ll see de Haan pair with Murphy on the third pair, because fuck you. They’ll serve as a shutdown pairing, and things will be generally fine when they’re on the ice. But that’ll expose the Keith–Gus and Maatta–Seabrook pairings as the bloated, slow, irresponsible messes that they are, and the Hawks will once again rely on the goaltending to constantly pull their asses out of the sling and the offense to outscore their defensive problems. Colliton will do the right thing and put de Haan on the first PK unit, but it will be with Keith, who couldn’t be bothered to give a shit last year.

On his own, de Haan is a good shutdown D-man at a good price (three more years at $4.55 million per). And he’ll be perfect for when Boqvist makes the jump. But de Haan isn’t a savior. He’s a nice second-pairing D-man on a team that needs a top-pairing guy and has nothing close to one. The problems on the blue line this year are bigger than he can solve alone.

So yeah, he technically makes the blue line “log jam” better, sort of like a plumber who empties a toilet with his bare hands, throws the remains in a garbage can, and doesn’t have the equipment to actually fix the clog.

“Keep on going and fuck everything. Pile misery upon misery, heap it up on a spoon, and dissolve it with a drop of bile.”

Stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and Corsica.hockey.

Previous Previews

Robin Lehner

Corey Crawford

Adam Boqvist (oh please fucking god let it be so)

Carl Dahlstrom

Everything Else

F*ck It Dude, Let’s Get P.K. Subban

By John Pullega 3437 0

Last week, The Maven brought up the idea of trading Brandon Saad. You should read the whole thing, but the SparkNotes version is that the Hawks might have as many as three forwards who can maybe do what Saad does for less money. This money will be important for re-signing Alex DeBrincat after next year.

While we’ve been hemming and hawing over how the Hawks need to make a legitimate run at Erik “My Crotch Is Itchy” Karlsson, it’s hard to picture the organization having the stomach to pay him the $12 million per over eight years he’ll probably ask for (and deserve). EK65 will always be the dream(boat), but you can see the Hawks balking, with DeBrincat and possibly Strome asking for the money the Hawks owe them in arrears for setting the world on fire.

With all that in mind, there are three things the Hawks should be looking to do this offseason:

1. Shore up the defense

2. Improve the penalty kill

3. Add a top-six forward

Shoring up the defense and improving the penalty kill are so far ahead of adding a top-six forward in my view that if the Hawks decided to trade Brandon Saad—who himself is a top-six winger, even if Beto O’Colliton thinks he was born for this third-line horseshit—to solve the first two problems, I wouldn’t even be mad.

I’ll stop edging you here.

Let’s offer Brandon Saad, Erik Gustafsson, and a pick/prospect for P.K. Subban.

How the FUCK Did You Come Up With That?

After the Preds were hilariously bounced from the playoffs much earlier than anticipated, the trade rumors around Pernell-Karl began circulating immediately. (Whether they’re true or not doesn’t matter right now. We’re bored and don’t really want to think about the Cup, so this is what we’re doing.) If there’s even a small consideration that David Poile would trade someone as dynamic, fashionable, and wonderful as P.K. Subban, you absolutely must make a phone call, division rivalry be damned. (As much as I’d like to use the Hartman–Ejdsell trade as proof that in-division trades can happen, what I’m proposing is a much more unwieldy beast than that.)

P.K. Subban on the Hawks definitely shores up the defense. He most likely improves the penalty kill as well.

OK, Dumbass, Why Would Nashville Ever Do That?

Let’s say you get Poile on the phone and offer Saad, Gus, and a pick/prospect. Let’s say the pick/prospect is either Boqvist or this year’s second round pick (#43 overall). Is this comparable? Let’s start with the stats.

2018–19 GP G A P CF% xGF%
P.K. Subban 63 9 22 31 53.61 50.54
B. Saad 80 23 24 47 52.69 47.27
E. Gustafsson 79 17 43 60 50.24 45.50

Last year was Subban’s worst year as a professional hockey player. He posted his lowest games-played total (not counting the season-in-a-can in 2013), his lowest assists total, his lowest points total, and third-lowest goals total. He was out for six weeks nursing an upper body injury, which no doubt contributed to his off year.

Compare that to the two players the Hawks would give up. Erik Gustafsson not only had the best year of his career by far but also was one of the best offensive D-men statistically in the NHL last year. He and P.K. Subban have exactly the same number of 60-point seasons under their belts. He’s also younger (27 vs. 30) and on a much friendlier albeit soon-to-be-ending contract ($1.2 million vs. $9 million). Something tells me you can use these points to convince Poile it’s not a bad idea.

Likewise, Brandon Saad’s 47 points would have made him a top-five scorer for the Preds last year. His 23 goals would be third behind Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg. His 24 assists would also be top five on the Preds.

Based solely on last year’s numbers, this trade is a huge win for the Preds, statistically.

But of course, we can’t neglect history. P.K. Subban is without a doubt one of the top D-men of his generation. He’s been a consistent force on both sides of the puck and on both sides of the special-teams ledger. His presence on the PP is devastating, and in the four years prior to last year (2014–2018), Subban played a top role on both the Canadiens’s and Preds’s PK units: Each team’s PK finished 7th, 12th, 15th, and 6th, respectively, and in the two years a Subban team finished outside the top 10, Subban had missed at least 14 games. Neither Saad nor Gus have anything close to his pedigree.

At this point, it’s probably not a bad idea to talk about cap implications, because that could matter.

With this trade offer, the Preds would free up $1.8 million in cap space, giving them just about $9 million to play with (according to CapFriendly). Maybe they use that money to add another scoring threat in, like, Jeff Skinner, I don’t know. Fuck Nashville, I’m not doing this for them.

The point is: If Nashville truly believes it’s Subban’s fault they got knocked out so early and would consider trading him for it, Gus and Saad both provide as much or more offense than they currently have for less money. Nashville can then use that additional money to re-sign Josi or sign Duchene or Ferland or whichever other good ol’ boy they think is the missing piece but obviously isn’t. Plus, Poile might be getting itchy feet, as his team hasn’t yet won the Cup all of its entitled, illiterate, hillbilly, raising-banners-for-nothing-that-matters fans have been stealing college chants about, such is the depth of that pool of cleverness. He can MAKE A MOVE and trade his misidentified scapegoat in one fell swoop.

While Saad and Gus would be good adds for Nashville in the contexts of last year; Nashville’s need for more scoring from their forwards; and their need to replace the defensive offense Subban provides; P.K. Subban is a legitimate star who can pull the receipts out of any one of his agonizingly fashionable outfits as proof. That’s where you’d hope the #43 pick pushes this offer over the top.

I had wanted to use the #3 overall pick in this peyote-driven fantasy. As much as I love Subban (fuck, I’m offering SAAD for Christ’s sake), giving up 100-plus points AND a decent lottery ticket is probably feeling my oats a tad too much. Maybe you talk #3 if it’s an either/or with Saad and Gus, but that’s gonna complicate things more than I’m willing to get into. So you offer the #43. If they say no to that, or if they said, “No, we’d rather have Boqvist,” fine, I don’t fucking care, you can have him.

Because remember, you’re getting P.K. Subban, a proven two-way D-man who can play well on special teams. Boqvist doesn’t project to do that, and even if he ever became that, the Core will be long dead by then (or retired or whatever it is hockey players do when they’re done playing). And by all indications, the goal is to make one last run at it with this Core, specifically, Kane and Toews.

So again, the point of this trade is to shore up the defense and improve the PK, with the overarching goal of making one more run at a Cup with the Core. If the price is right, Subban might be the missing piece.

I’ve Made It This Far. What’s It Look Like?

What do the Hawks look like if something like this goes through? Let’s start by using the current roster after the trade.

DeBrincat–Strome–Kane

Kabulik–Toews–Kahun

Perlini–Kampf–Sikura

Caggiula–Anisimov–Wedin

Hayden

Murphy–Subban

Keith–Jokiharju

Boqvist/Beaudin–Koekkoek/Seabrook (Kill me)

Crow

Delia

That top four on the backend starts looking a lot better. Subban also gets Seabrook off the PK, which is an absolute must after last year’s trainwreck. You can mix and match Murphy and Harju, Subban and Keith. Having Subban back there solves a lot of defensive and PK problems. Subban also knows how to move the puck, which the Hawks have missed as Keith has aged.

This line up as you see it makes a few assumptions. First, I’m assuming that the Hawks re-sign the entire third line at $1 million per: Each of Perlini, Kampf, and Sikura is an RFA this year. This is purely a guess at what they’ll get. I’m also guessing that Kabulik brings a $2 million cap hit, because I don’t know what his contract actually looks like.

With these assumptions, the Hawks still have $11–12 million in cap space, according to CapFriendly. That’s probably not enough to both sign a top-six forward this year AND re-sign DeBrincat/Strome next year, unless you find someone willing to take Anisimov’s contract. This also asks a lot of Dominik Kabulik, but slotting him with someone he knows (Kahun) and someone he can probably trust (Toews) is about as soft a landing as you can get. It ALSO doesn’t consider what the Hawks will do about Crawford, who is a UFA after next year.

P.K. Subban would solve a ton of problems the Hawks have. He’d give them the second-best shot (after Karlsson) of shoring up the Hawks’s woeful blue line (and he might be a safer bet than Karlsson anyway). He’d keep this Core’s window open just a little bit longer.

If the Hawks could get him for Saad, Gus, and the #43 or a prospect like Boqvist, I’m pulling the trigger on that every day. For P.K. Subban, the whole package is more than worth it.

If the goal is to make one more run at a Cup with the Core, Subban can help. We’d just need Dave Poile—the winningest GM in NHL history, except in the one game that matters—to prove what a huge fucking genius he is one more time.

Stats from hockey-reference.com and NaturalStatTrick. Cap shit from CapFriendly’s Armchair GM tool.

Everything Else

The Doll’s Trying to Kill Me and the Toaster’s Been Laughing at Me – FFUD ’18–19 Player Reviews – Erik Gustafsson

By John Pullega 1831 0

It’s not often that you see a 60-point defenseman and think, “This guy probably tops out as a third-pairing bumslayer.” But that’s what we got with Erik Gustafsson, who’s a riddle wrapped in a mystery wrapped in a position on the blue line. He was the ambergris of the Blackhawks: a weird combination of gross–great as exciting, frustrating, and terrifying as discovering your sexuality.

Stats

79 GP, 17 G, 43 A, 60 P

50.24 CF%, 45.5 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt!

We didn’t bury the lede here. Erik Gustafsson scored 60 points. That’s sixth among all NHL defensemen. You know who else did that? Brent Burns, Mark Giordano, Morgan Rielly, John Carlson, and Keith Yandle. That’s good company.

And it wasn’t all on the power play. His 13 even-strength goals tied him for third among defensemen, along with Roman Josi and Kris Letang, and just behind Morgan “Fuck spelling” Rielly and Dougie Hamilton.

From about December 18 on, he took the point on the top power play unit and brought it back from the dead. From that day on, the Hawks led the league in PP% at 27.1%.

The only guys ahead of him in scoring on the Hawks were two future Hall of Famers in Kane and Toews, and a budding star in Alex DeBrincat.

All of this came from out of nowhere, too. After being drafted by the Oilers in 2012, Gus had only played a total of 76 games before this season, racking up 14 points in 15–16 (all assists) and 16 points in 17–18 (five goals, 11 assists). There were a few flashes of brilliance from him toward the end of the year in 17–18, especially when he was out there with Kane, but nothing that could have predicted what we got from him this year.

Plus, strictly by the statistics, Gus was decent in terms of possession. His CF% was a pubic hair above even, which, relative to the Hawks, was Dirk Digglerian.

And it’s all at bargain basement prices, as Gus is signed through next year at a cool $1.2 million.

And yet . . .

The Frogurt Is Also Cursed

Gus couldn’t find his own asshole in the defensive zone with both hands and a hemorrhoid donut. Watching him in his own zone was like watching a never-ending game of “HEY WILLIE! CATCH THE FOOTBALL!” He took huge risks while skating with a partner who’s only slightly less of a cowboy than he is. He hung his goalies out to dry more often than not. And it didn’t look like he was actively trying to improve that as the year went on. Scoring 60 points excuses a lot of things.

Remember that for a time, there was discussion about turning Gus into a forward because of how woeful he looked as a defenseman. And some of the numbers flesh that out. Despite starting a tad over 60% of his time in the offensive zone at evens (not just 5v5), the only defenseman to give up more high-danger chances against was his running mate, Duncan Keith (363 and 367, respectively).

It’s the same story with high-danger goals against, with the two of them present for 47 HDGA each at evens. While Gus didn’t have the worst rates in terms of high-danger chances and goals allowed (which belong to Carl Dahlstrom and Brandon Motherfucking Manning), it sure is odd for a guy who starts so much time away from his own goaltender to be on the ice for so many chances.

Unless, of course, you’re Erik Gustafsson.

Can I Go Now?

Erik Gustafsson is polarizing. It’s hard to true up the fact that he’s both a 60-point scoring D-man and a bad D-man, but here we are. He’s not quite a forward, and he’s not quite a D-man, but maaaaan.

The Hawks have shown no interest in trading Gustafsson, and it’s really as simple as pointing to those 60 points and that $1.2 million deal. But doubling your career point total from out of nowhere in your age 26 season is so far out of the realm of normal that it’s a hell of a risk to assume that he can do it again. And if he does it all over again, you can bet he’s going to be looking for some serious Fuck You Money.

Gus at $1.2 million makes sense. If he scores 60 or more again next year? That’s a hell of a decision to make with the re-sign. Are you comfortable paying $5–8 million a year for a D-man who doesn’t play defense, especially when you have four young D-men who are all offensively minded coming up in the next 3–4 years (in theory)? Especially when the only guy who’s shown he can play consistent defense is Connor Murphy?

It would hard to justify trading him (likely as a package) for anything but a proven #1 D-man. Sixty-point D-men are rare, even if they do look stupid out there sometimes. And above all, Gus is fun. If the Hawks don’t have a plan for how they’re gonna win another Cup with the Core—and to reiterate, they don’t—the least they can do is make it fun.

But if I’m Stan Bowman, I’m calling Dave Poile at whichever banner shop he’s at that makes every kind of banner except a Stanley Cup Champions banner and offering Gus, and Boqvist or the #3 for P.K. Subban, because anyone stupid enough to blame Subban for Nashville’s woes might take that offer no questions asked.

For now, all we can do is watch and wonder as Gus Diarrhea Dragon’s his way up and down the ice, bringing the backend offense we’ve so desperately wanted and the awful defense we’ve grown so accustomed to.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Everything Else

Game #82 – Red Eyes on Orange Horizons, If Columbus Was Wrong I’d Drive Straight Off the Edge. I’m Seeing Red – Hawks 2, Preds 5.

By John Pullega 1844 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Money Puck

The 2019 campaign is over. It will likely go down as one of the most disappointing performances that the Hawks have had since the core congealed back in 2007. Two 40+ goal scorers. A 35-goal scorer. Eight 30+-point seasons. A defenseman with 60 fucking points. And no playoffs.

It’s a massive disappointment. Yet somehow, it exceeded expectations? Given how bad the Western Conference was this year, the Hawks were in shouting distance of the playoffs as recently as two weeks ago. I certainly didn’t expect that, especially with Crawford missing as many games as he did. While none of us really expected the playoffs to be a reality, that they were even in the running was at least surprising. What’s scary is that it came on the backs of career years from Kane, Toews, DeBrincat, and Gustafsson. Is it safe to rely on that?

Fuck, we’ve got a long, long time to crack this brewski open. I’ll try not too be too retrospective tonight. Let’s kick it.

– First, thank you for reading and sharing this year. Sincerely, it’s a pleasure to write for all of you.

– Cam Ward was outstanding tonight. Four goals on 50 shots is entirely acceptable behind this sock-as-as-condom defense. He certainly deserved a win for the effort tonight. We gave him a ton of shit this year, but tonight is a good memory to keep of him. Even though the Hawks had nothing to play for, Ward gave it a good effort. It’s a nice send off.

– Alex DeBrincat had a hot and cold game. Early on, he was everywhere, creating offense on Perlini’s goal especially. After playing staunch defense in his own zone, he skated to the neutral zone and executed a dump and chase on his own. All Perlini had to do was be there for Top Cat’s pass. As the game wore on, DeBrincat got a little looser. It was especially obvious on Fibbro’s goal. After turning the puck over on the near boards, he stood complaining about something, forcing Gus to cover his man high in the zone. Fabbro took advantage, dropping into the space left wide open by Gus covering his man. Had DeBrincat not complained, maybe he’s in that spot.

After the year he had though, you don’t hold something like that against him. Not tonight at least.

– Brendan Perlini ended a nine-game pointless streak tonight, but his airheadedness also allowed Wayne “They Don’t Call Me ‘Plate Tectonics’ for Nothing” Simmonds to crash the slot for a prime chance in the first. We’ve seen this before from Perlini, where he will take time off on a play that gives an opponent a good chance. Something to watch going forward, especially in terms of how Colliton deals with it. He’s scratched him before for boneheadedness.

– Drake Caggiula can stay. That it took Stan Bowman signing Brandon Manning as a “fuck you” to Quenneville to get him isn’t his fault. He’s looked in place with Toews and Kane, mostly because he will go get the puck, taking that pressure off Toews. I’m still not sure that a Stanley Cup contender should have Drake Caggiula on the first line, but it hasn’t looked particularly wrong. I liked him tonight, and I liked him all year as a Hawk.

– Patrick Kane is a piece of shit as a person, but he’s a goddamn artist with the puck. His patience on the goal line before his pass to Caggiula was astounding.

– I’ll go on record as saying I really like Pat Foley. Generally, he’s good at what he does and is entertaining. But listening to him call Austin Watson “physically proficient” in the same breath as talking about his far-too-short 18-game suspension for domestic violence was a bit much. He probably didn’t relate the two, but as a broadcaster, that’s kind of his entire job: to say things thoughtfully and clearly. He probably didn’t conflate the two consciously, but that he didn’t think how that phrasing might play was jarring to me.

– The sooner we all come to terms with the fact that Erik Gustafsson will never be anything more than a below-average defender with the ability to score 60 points, the better. He’s going to be the most interesting player the Hawks have next year because of his offensive proficiency, his defensive offensiveness, and his sweetheart contract.

– Listening to Nashville fans mock Ward after an empty netter reminds me of Clint Eastwood talking to that empty chair that one time. Looking forward to their piss-sweater-wearing team getting bounced before they win a Cup again.

We’ll have playoff coverage and baseball shit for you in the off-season. We’ll give you the postmortem in a week or two. And as always, we’ll give you the skinny on the draft and free agency. But for now, and for the second straight year, we’ll sign off on games that matter.

Thanks again for reading. As a great man once said:

Onwards . . .

Booze du Jour: Victory’s Sour Monkey and accoutrements.

Line of the Night: “They really have no business being in this game with the opportunities they’ve given up.” Pat Foley on the Hawks, getting it 100% correct

Everything Else

Game #78 – Hawks 2, Kings 2 – Kings Win ’80s Night Breakdancing Contest

By Rose Rankin 1791 0

This was a poorly played game for the most part, which I guess comes as no surprise given who the teams involved were. And yet, the contrast between the dull first period when both teams ended up with a handful of themselves and the excitement of basically every other televised sporting event in the nation tonight was striking. What was worse, however, was the ending, where the Hawks took one meager point and lost in OT on a power play thanks to a terribly poetic penalty by Jonathan Toews. We knew the season was over but this is a harsh exclamation point on it. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

– As mentioned, the first period was mostly a back-and-forth affair between mediocre opponents, and although the Hawks ended up on the wrong side of the ledger in terms of both shots and possession (9-14 and 48 CF%, respectively), it wasn’t a painfully noticeable difference in play quality. The only part that was certifiably painful was Keith shattering his stick on a shot near the end of a late-period power play. Not only was that the personification of a sad trombone sound, but Kyle Clifford jumped out of the box just as it happened and the Kings had numbers going the other way. But fear not—Seabrook took a dumb penalty and the Kings were too useless to score on it…that time.

– Not useless was Alex DeBrincat, who scored a relatively soft goal by curling it just underneath Campbell early in the second. Top Cat is now tied with Patrick Kane as the team’s leading goal scorer, with 41, and his career total is…wait for it…69 (NICE). And yes, you’d make that joke too so shut up. Having DeBrincat and Garbage Dick on the third line is still some galaxy brain bullshit as far as I’m concerned, but I’d rather see Top Cat produce anywhere and any way that he can, rather than flail in the stupidity of bad coaching decisions. Remember, a 25-goal scorer tops, this guy.

– Erik Gustafsson‘s magic carpet ride continued with another goal, his 17th. Campbell likely was screened because he didn’t seem to see the shot coming from three miles away. However, Gus giveth and he taketh away, as his habit of doing confused pirouettes away from forwards left Michael Amadio alone in the slot to tie the game in the third. If you can’t stop a fourth-fucking-liner on one of the league’s worst teams you seriously need to re-evaluate what you’re doing and how you understand your job description.

– But wait! Before we pile on the crappy defenseman, at least he scored. Kane and Toews both point-blank fucked up multiple times in overtime. The fact this game went to OT is stupid on its own, but they had nearly a third of the 3-on-3 with control of the puck and couldn’t finish any of their shots. Toews followed that up with a penalty on Anze Kopitar, which is frustrating for its timing since that led to the winning goal by LA, and sad in its relevance for an aging, slowing legend trying to slow down nearly his mirror image. And it backfired in a pretty dramatic way, really putting the final nail in the coffin where the Hawks playoff hopes now lay. But had either he or Kane converted on any of their opportunities earlier, that penalty wouldn’t have happened. Maybe they’re tired after the amount of ice time (would be fair enough at the end of the season although tonight’s wasn’t too egregious), maybe they just don’t have it or don’t give a shit, but it did not inspire hope for the future.

– David Kampf broke some part of his face (or severely messed it up), and not that it matters now but still, not the way to end the season.

– I can’t say that Austin Wagner is any good, but I can say that he is fast. He absolutely scorched Carl Dahlstrom in the second for the tying goal (the first time), and he did it to Connor Murphy in the third but our Large Irish Son was bailed out by a Crawford poke check.

– Drake Caggiula seemed awfully excited to be back in the lineup, and yet I can’t help but wonder if he should try to avoid getting into fights rather than seeking them out, seeing as he just missed a month with a head injury. I dunno, just doesn’t seem like the best strategy. He had four shots, so that’s something, and he didn’t get into a full-on fisticuffs, but boy was he trying to.

I know I sound like a broken record but this has to be the end of the playoff delusion, even if the math doesn’t say it’s for certain yet. We all know it is, and really, if you can’t beat this lowly-ass Kings team any of the times you play them, do you really even deserve to be in the playoffs? The answer is no. Onward and upward?

Beer de jour: Sun Catcher by Revolution Brewing

Line of the Night: “Halfway through an almost scintillating first period.” —Foley, sarcastically saying what we were thinking.

Photo credit: NHL.com

Everything Else

Power Outage

By Sam Fels 1829 0

It seems awfully simple to say the Hawks have gone as their power play has gone, but that’s basically the drill. It has dried up when it absolutely couldn’t of late, with a marker against Vancouver and last night’s Anisimov deflection the only things to show for the past 11 games. In those 11 game the Hawks are 6-4-1, which isn’t bad. But obviously a couple more power play goals in this stretch and the Hawks probably claim some points they needed to have and might even be in a playoff spot.

You can divide the power play’s season into three segments: From the opening of the season to December 17th, which covers both Quenneville’s short term and Colliton’s start. Then from December 18th to March 1st, when it was absolutely nuclear. And then the last 11 games which go from March 2nd until now, when it’s been cold, cold, cold.

I wanted to check on it metrically, as is my way. So I’m going to take you along with me:

1st Phase: CF/60 – 86.5  SF/60 – 47.5   SCF/60 – 43.1   HDCF/60 – 18.8   SH% – 8.5

2nd Phase (Nuclear): CF/60 – 104.2   SF/60 – 58.0   SCF/60 – 52.5  HDCF/60 – 16.4  SH% – 23.1

3rd Phase (I’m turning into Lovie Smith now): CF/60 – 99.9   SF/60 – 50.6   SCF/60 – 45.5  HDCF/60 – 13.9  SH% – 5.0

So a couple things to glean here. One is that a huge part of the power play’s success was luck. While there was a surge in attempts, shots, and chances in the middle phase where the Hawks couldn’t stop scoring, they also shot nearly three times as well as they did to start the season and almost five times as well as they are now. For a frame of reference, the median SH% on the power play this year is 13.5%, and the Lightning lead the league at 22% for the season. The Hawks were better than that for six weeks, which gives you some idea of the unsustainable nature of it.

Another funny quirk of this is that the Hawks were actually averaging less high-danger chances when they power play went supernova than they did in the first part of the season. What changed is that they doubled their shooting-percentage on just scoring-chances, to almost 30%. Now, when you have Patrick Kane at full bore and Top Cat on the other side, you should be shooting a higher percentage than most. And the Hawks did, just not at a rate anyone was going to keep up.

Still, in the last 11 games, the Hawks have seen a drop in attempts, shots, and chances. And that can’t be totally explained metrically.

One thing we’ve seen of late is that teams are completely aware of the Hawks drop-pass entry, and the Hawks haven’t shown a willingness to try anything else. Opponents are leaving one forward behind the initial puck-carrier, cutting off that drop pass. Because one major change the Hawks made that sparked the power play was actually having two players trailing the initial puck-carrier, when that’s cut off the Hawks are looking at a 3-on-3 at the opposing blue line. And they don’t seem willing to take that on, even though there should be plenty of room. It doesn’t help that the two forwards ahead of the play are just standing and waiting as they’re expecting that drop pass.

So what you’re getting is the initial puck-carrier, sometimes Gustafsson and sometimes Toews for the most part, pulling up somewhere between the red line and blue line, and literally stopping or curling toward the boards or both and waiting for that penalty killer behind them to “clear.” Now everyone’s stopped, and they’re still trying that pass except Kane or DeBrincat has four across the line to stare at with no one on his team moving forward. So entries have become a problem again.

In the zone, the movement has stopped. Some of that might be due to Kane’s overall fatigue, but that doesn’t explain it all. When the power play was humming, Kane was getting the puck while already moving and committing people. He’s standing still and Carmello’ing/Harden’ing (phrasing?) at the circle. Top Cat is waiting on the other side for passes that have become the first priority to be cut off by penalty kills. Toews isn’t bouncing between the goal line and the high slot as much, and when Kane’s doing his isolation offense on the right circle it doesn’t really matter if Toews is in the high slot because he’s basically facing the wrong way. His only option from there is basically to bump it back to Kane, unless he has time to turn to face the center of the ice. Which he rarely does.

It wouldn’t hurt to try and run things occasionally through DeBrincat on the other side, which makes Toews a threat for a one-timer from the high slot and Gustafsson from the blue line and a cross-seam pass to Kane as well. Kane’s not really the best at one-timing shots, but he can make a fist of it enough to have teams account for it. If it moves guys, then the Hawks can get their movement and creativity back.

Everything Else

Atop The Sugar Pile – It Can’t Rain All The Time

By Sam Fels 1390 0

The Dizzying Highs

Corey Crawford – It could be argued the only thing that matters out of this month, long-term at least, is that Corey Crawford has shown he can still be Corey Crawford. The biggest feeling of dread I’ve had about all of this until now was that Crow just wasn’t ever going to get back to that. Even when he was healthy earlier in the year, he wasn’t very good. Combined with questionable health, and no matter what the plan/process/shit at the wall the Hawks front office was attempting wouldn’t matter because of questions in net. Collin Delia isn’t ready to take over, and if you have to outside the organization for a goalie that’s no better than a 50-50 shot. Seeing Crow keep this team that suddenly can’t score in every game as their defense is still historically bad at least reassures all of us it’s still there. And obviously, no one deserves it more than Crow, who has been through injury hell only to return to a team that can’t protect him and needs immediate miracles in net.

The Terrifying Lows

Beto O’Colliton – It’s not that switching the lines randomly and nonsensically was something we didn’t see from Joel Quenneville. Fuck, a good third of this blog was bitching about it. At least Q’s tinkering, for the most part, came at a time when the Hawks needed a jump. While at first we were curious about Patrick Kane skating on what appeared to be a third line with Anisimov and Kahun, the other two scored and played well. The Hawks won five in a row. Everyone was chipping in. Then after one bad period, Coach Cool Youth Pastor has must made it up in ways that don’t work. The Hawks have five goals in regulation, and three are from forwards. One was on a power play, While in theory just amassing talent at the top should work, it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of what Kane and Toews are now and what makes them click. Drake Caggiula isn’t anything more than a foot soldier, but he does the work necessary. So does Saad. Robbing Strome of Top Cat doesn’t provide that line a threat anyone has to account for, no matter how much work Saad is doing these days. It’s not the sole reason or even biggest the Hawks stubbed their toes at the most critical juncture of the season, but it is a big reason why. We wanted the last portion of the season to showcase some reason to believe that Colliton has a unique view or hope for the future. We’re still waiting.

The Creamy Middles

Erik Gustafsson – Goals in three straight games probably means he should be at the top, but Gus scoring from the blue line is just kind of the norm now. No, he doesn’t have a clue defensively, but in the future if he’s allowed to outscore his problems from a third pairing, no one will care at all. And at the end of the day, no matter the problems, he’s entertaining. He does make things happen, and along with Kane and Top Cat and maybe Toews on occasion, he can conjure a chance out of nothing. That’s worth having.

Everything Else

Game #74 – Hawks 2, Avs 4 – Tellin’ Myself it’s not as Hard, Hard, Hard as it Seems

By Rose Rankin 1734 0

It’s over, isn’t it? I know it’s not technically over, i.e., not mathematically over, but it feels like it might as well be, right? This was yet another framed portrait in the gallery of shame that is the Hawks’ “must-win” moments this season. So tomorrow’s re-match is probably the real, final must-win (I dunno, math is hard guys) but it almost feels like it’s too late already. Let’s get to the bullets:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

– As cheesy as it sounds, this did end up being a game of inches. Dylan Strome shooting just wide on their first power play, Dominik Kahun also in the first missing an open net as puck took a funny bounce over his stick, Alex DeBrincat‘s one-timer in the second going just wide…had any of those chance (or Kane’s breakaway in the first or Saad and Kahun’s 2-on-1 in the third) gone other than how they did, this would have been a different game. Neither team had a huge number of chances and the Avs just took better advantage of theirs than the Hawks did. Sven Andrighetto‘s goal maybe-maybe-wasn’t a high stick (I don’t think it was) and maybe-maybe-wasn’t goalie interference (a little more likely), but neither potential offense was so egregious as to nullify the goal. And that was the right call. It was just the wrong team was the beneficiary of that luck.

– To add to that point, the Hawks only gave up 25 shots, which is, well, a normal number of shots for a team to give up, as opposed to the 752 they usually surrender. So at the time they needed to hold it together, they managed to not give up an insane amount but they did give up more high-danger chances, and you saw what Colorado did with them. And that’s with the Hawks even getting a bit of good luck with the Avs hitting the post a couple times, so it could have been worse.

– That doesn’t mean the defense was necessarily great today. Erik Gustafsson took a stupid-ass holding penalty in the second period that started the PK that ended up being a 2-man advantage. I realize that Kampf’s high-sticking penalty is what directly led to the 5-on-3, but that was at least in the heat of the play, as opposed to Gus who lost his stick and just decided to bear hug a guy like no one was going to notice. It was just silly. And that sequence led to the go-ahead goal. Forsling and Seabrook also had their moments, including Foreskin getting burned by Andrighetto for the third goal. It wasn’t a total defensive dumpster fire today (everyone was above 50% in possession at evens, so there’s that) but in total it wasn’t enough. If this were a different time of the season I may say it’s a good sign or at least an improvement that Crawford didn’t have to be absolutely otherworldly to even keep it close. But it really doesn’t matter now, does it?

– Also sort of fitting is how it was Patrick Kane making a lazy play that put the nail in the coffin. This guy’s been CCYP’s workhorse, and as Sam noted recently, he’s been slowing down and likely tiring out, and whether it was that his give-a-shit meter was too low or the mileage just piled up too quickly today, when he had to maintain possession as Crawford went to the bench, Kane’s half-ass passing attempt was picked off and led to the empty-netter. Yes, the Hawks would probably have lost anyway but that was quite the punctuation mark.

– Brandon Saad had a really interesting game—I don’t know what else to call it. Sometimes he was fucking up left and right, such as bookending the first period with tripping penalties that luckily Colorado didn’t convert on but that were damn nerve-wracking. He maybe-probably should have shot on the 2-on-1 with Kahun in the third period but at full speed with the laid-out defenseman coming towards him it’s hard to pass that judgement. And then other times he was fantastic, getting an assist on Gustafsson’s goal, out-muscling Nathan MacKinnon for a takeaway in the second, and doing the little things right. No one can accuse him of not trying, and he was all over the ice and finished with a 63 CF%. The sad thing is, like everything else today, it just wasn’t enough.

– In addition to not giving up a million shots, the Hawks led in possession the whole game (64, 62, 56 CF% at evens, respectively). And they seemed to genuinely have their hearts in it (Kane’s lazy pass notwithstanding). It was downright frenetic for most of the game, and even when they fell behind they didn’t pack it in. It was the damn 5-on-3 and a collection of their own missed opportunities that screwed them over.

– Here lies Dylan Sikura. He never scored.

– Stupid Alexander Kerfoot was all over the place and managed two assists. Philipp Grubauer was predictably good today, as was Nathan MacKinnon who had five shots. I was genuinely surprised he didn’t score.

Well, we’re at the absolute last of the last chances now. The Hawks did a lot of things right and conceivably could have won this game, so maybe that means tomorrow they’ll get the bounces and breaks that they didn’t today. It’s possible? But would it matter? Onward I suppose…

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

Gustafsson, Kane, Weirdness, and Fatigue

By Sam Fels 1453 0

When I attend games with Fifth Feather, as I did last night, our minds and conversation tend to wander to all sort of subjects, at least until he get back to bitching about the White Sox. But many topics are usually covered, and one that keeps coming up is the extreme weirdness of Erik Gustafsson. Remember, a year ago Gustafsson really had only been with the team a month or six weeks after a year and a half exile to Rockford. All for one turnover in a playoff series. And yet here he is, with an outside chance at a 60-point season from the blue line. Certainly 55+ is on the cards.

And yet, for listeners to the podcast or regular readers, you know that we remain unconvinced of Gustafsson’s value. We’ve used the term “third-pairing bum-slayer” quite regularly. And that remains the feeling. But what Feather and I asked ourselves last night was, “Has a true bum ever put up 55+ points?” There are thresholds in a most sports where if a player crosses them, he has to be good, right? Like, if you can put up 55 points even once, then you have to have some use. Which caused me to go to the archives.

In the past 10 seasons, there have been 57 instances of a d-man scoring 55 points or more. And on that list, you’d be hard-pressed to find a player who was a total bum-ass bum. Sure, some of them eventually turned into that when they got older, but not when and around when they were putting up that many points. You remember Mark Streit being terrible, but around 2009 and 2010 when he was putting up that total he certainly wasn’t. Kevin Shattenkirk would be a stretch, as though he’s hardly top-paring material he’s gone down with the ship on Broadway and has always been a solid second- or third-pairing puck-mover. Torey Krug is on the list, and seems a pretty solid comp, as he doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing on his half of the ice but racks up points and chances on the other. He has his use. Lubomir Visnovsky is a name that pops out, and remember that one because we’re coming back to it, who somehow collected 68 points in ’10-’11 for the Ducks in the one season apparently he gave a shit the whole time. He was 34 then and right afterwards turned into sawdust and vomit.

So then the question last night became how many d-men had their first 55+ point season at 27, which Gustafsson is. And the answer is a little more than you might first guess (technically this is Gustaffson’s age-26 season, but he did just turn 27 a week ago).

The first name is Brent Burns, whose first 55+ points season came at 29. Burns has been consistently in the league since the age of 20, and as you know spent considerable time at forward in both Minnesota and San Jose. Mark Giordano’s first 55+ point season came at 32. Injury problems prevented it from happening at 30 or 31, and Gio had been a Norris-caliber performer before that, but he didn’t crack the code until much later than even Gustafsson has.  Visnovsky was 29, and again seems almost the perfect comp. He’d only been in the league a couple years before that, was woeful and helpless defensively, but could definitely make it happen at the other end when he wanted to.

There are more: Andrei Markov was 29. Brian Rafalski was 27 when he cracked 50 for the first time, and only in his second year in the league. Dan Boyle was 26 when he got to 53 for the first time in Tampa. Mark Streit was 31.

The difference, at least for most of these names, is that they were in the league for years before cracking this ceiling we’ve made up. There are a couple exceptions, obviously, but rare is the player who does this after only being in the league a year and a half, or at least not playing in Europe first. They’re there, though.

Look, I would love to tell you that Gustafsson is going to become Brian Rafalski, and if the Hawks could find another Nicklas Lidstrom to pair him with, well everything would be fucking golden, wouldn’t it? And there are considerations/caveats to consider. Just this season is a higher-scoring environment than even two or three years ago, for one. None of these players are going to have any influence on what Gustafsson goes on to do.

But still, if you an put up this kid of total, basically it’s kind of who you are? That’s what it looks like at least. Gustafsson may be a dragon with diarrhea (explosive at both ends), but if you’re going off what came before this kind of production might be the norm for the next few years instead of just a goofed spike in percentages.

Well, that 11% shooting-percentage will probably come down, but you get it.

-Normally, when Patrick Kane isn’t having an influence on game, the easy joke/observation (and one he’s more than earned) is that the give-o-shit meter is on empty and/or he’s hungover. But when it’s gone on for a few games like it has now, it has to be something more.

Not that seven points in nine March games is bad, or even close. But it’s only one goal in nine games, and watching him last night his game just didn’t have the pop that it’s had. And I think it might be obvious, but again, back to the archives.

At the top, Kane is averaging two more minutes per game this year than last. It might not seem like much, but that’s a 10% increase and over 70 games were talking almost three full games worth of time. Fatigue has to be a factor, right?

Let’s stat it out. On the year, Kane is averaging 4.5 attempts himself per game at evens. In six of the last seven games, he’s failed to reach that mark including a skunk against the Sabres. Kane has averaged 2.6 shots at evens per game on the season. In five of the last seven games, he’s failed to reach that mark. He’s averaged on the season 2.4 scoring chances per game at evens. He’s failed to reach that in six of the last seven. So just personally, Kane is averaging less attempts, shots, and not getting the same looks in the month of March.

But as we know, Kane’s a creator first and finisher second, even if he’s got 40 goals. So is he creating the same amount? We can only judge what is happening when he’s on the ice instead of what he himself is creating, but generally when he’s on the ice everything’s going through him anyway.

When Kane has been on the ice this season, the Hawks have created about 16 attempts per game at evens. He’s crossed that threshold of late just as much as he hasn’t. Kane on the ice has meant almost exactly nine shots per game from the Hawks. Again, he’s reached that four times out of the last eight games. Again, the same story with scoring chances, as the Hawks have hopped over and back the line of 7.9 per game that he’s been averaging on the season.

Given Kane’s vision, he could stand still most nights and probably get his teammates attempts and chances. But he doesn’t seem to have that extra oomph to get himself into the prime scoring areas or finish off plays. And who could blame him? Not only has he averaged two more minutes per game this season, but his heavy-load games have almost always been scrambling the Hawks back into a game late, which is even more frenzied work. It’s the type of extra ice-time that’s almost certainly been even more draining.