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Game #54 – Hawks vs. Oilers Douchebag Du Jour: He Can’t Be Killed

By Sam Fels February 5, 2019 1470 0

There’s no limit to how much you can blame Peter Chiarelli for what he did to the Oilers and some of the prime years of Connor McDavid. Run CMD should be carving out memories in April and May that we’ll keep forever, and yet he’ll be in the foursome ahead of you again, most likely. Chiarelli’s biggest problem was a lack of forward, or new, or progressive ideas. He was buried in the idea of hockey in the 90s, where you basically needed an axe-murderer on every line. And yet another one was hiring Ken Hitchcock to try and put out the inferno he created.

Look, Hitchcock lives in Edmonton and was sitting around not doing anything, so he was accessible and bored. It’s not that much out of his life to take the job, and he has nothing to lose. It’s that he was asked that’s so galling.

We have to keep stressing it every time he shows up against the Hawks, but since the Great Lockout of ’05, Ken Hitchcock has no success to speak of. The Flyers booted him quickly when he couldn’t adjust his team to the new ways of the game. The Jackets made the playoffs once, and never won a game. The Blues won three series in five years. And sure, the Blues never finished lower than second in the division, giving him something of a mini-Boudreau record, but this is the sport where no one really cares what your regular season marks are. The Stars missed the playoffs with him.

Hitch will batten things down and no team of his will ever give up too much. If the goalie he has plays really well, they’ll rack up regular season points. But they don’t create enough. They never have. Good teams get up the ice quickly and carry the puck. Can you ever picture a Hitchcock team doing that? Would you fuck. Hitch limits creativity to the defensive end, and any player making a turnover above the red line is sent to a gulag he has built next to the dressing room. Even if the Oilers had the horses to do that, which they should in some form with Klefbom and Nurse, they’re already running in place.

Hitchcock keeps falling upwards, or at least sideways, which given his shape is a real trick. He’s been Mike Babcock’s assistant on two Olympic teams and World Cup team, and you really have to ask why. What are his accomplishments other than just being around like the guy in front of the CVS? What’s so visionary about his system? His contemporary, Joel Quenneville, coached both before and after that lockout, has a bursting trophy-case. And the players he helped develop were upset he was gone. Vladimir Tarasenko threw a three-day rave when Hitch was fired. Seguin and Benn weren’t far behind. Rick Nash ran to New York.

This has to be his last stop, but in the NHL no one ever truly dies.

Game #54 Preview Suite

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Game #54 – Hawks vs. Oilers: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels February 5, 2019 1210 0

Game #54 Preview Suite

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Game #54 – Hawks vs. Oilers: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels February 5, 2019 1355 0

Notes: We keep telling you about Kampf and Saad, and they keep crushing it…any chances would see Kunitz slot in for Perlini but that would be pointless…Seabrook and Keith got clocked against the Wild, and Hitchcock isn’t so dinosaur that he won’t recognize what they are and send McDavid at them every chance, so that’ll be fun…Gustafsson and Forsling were actually effective together as a third-pairing, which is what they are…we’re hoping it’s Delia but they could go back to Ward, morning skate was after publish time…

Notes: You can complain about the Hawks wingers, and you should, but good god look at this trash! That’s what plays with McDavid? He should have demanded a trade like four months ago!…Draisaitl has seven points in his last four games…McDavid has 41 points in his last 26 games, only slightly behind the pace Kane has been putting up…Koskinen probably goes tonight as Talbot has been horrible his last couple appearances and Koskinen at least hasn’t turned into putty, and the Oilers will settle for that…they’re already bitching about Manning, which is just delicious…

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Game #14 – Hawks vs. Oilers Preview: From An Arena To A Place

By Sam Fels November 1, 2018 1597 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 6-4-3 Oilers 6-4-1

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THEY’RE STRANGELY LIT, TOO: None, Oilers blogosphere is fucking touched, man

I suppose the good thing about an NHL season is after you cough up a confused kitten one night against a dog-ass team there’s a chance to put it right the next night. Except now you’re tired and the other team isn’t and you’re throwing your backup goalie out there on the road. And even though you got a decent performance out of him last time against this very opposition, there’s only so many times you can hit on Cam Ward before you go bust (are we still doing phrasing?) Whatever, that’s the spot the Hawks find themselves in tonight as they traipse eastward from the coast to the oil-rich darkness of the northern half of Alberta.

I can’t add much to what Hess said last night, other than to echo the unacceptable nature of last night’s loss. That’s a team aching to be beat that they took the lead on twice, and you have to have that. And getting railroaded in the 3rd smacked of complacency, and whoever let this team think they were anywhere near good enough to be complacent at any point in a game needs to be hit with a large-mouth bass. Hopefully that point has been made clear to the players, or will be before they take the ice tonight.

We won’t get word until they show up if Patrick Kane is going to play, but knowing his nature if he’s able to stand and hasn’t vomited in the five minutes before warm-up he’s probably going to. If he doesn’t, look for the same lineup as last night with Chris Kunitz filling in on the second line and the accompanying feeling of helplessness in a cold and unforgiving world. If Kane does play, I would imagine Kampf gets the suit for the night, but could see Kruger or Hayden doing so as well.

Brandon Manning‘s “Battle Of The Network Stars” reenactment for the blind last night should result in him…well, it should have resulted in him being catapulted into the Pacific but short of that Jan Rutta could easily draw back in at his expense to pair with Brandon Davidson. EAT ARBY’S.

The Oilers come in on something of the same roll they were on when these two last debated various musical topics last Sunday, though in the interim they dropped a 4-3 decision to the Wild in Minnehaha. Even in that they tossed 37 shots at Devan Dubnyk and he did Dubnyk things, so they’re playing quite well. After being McDavid And The Pips for the season’s opening weeks, they’ve gotten a surge from Leon Draisaitl‘s line and a smattering of help from others. If they do that then they’re close to a decent team. McDavid will always make sure they don’t suck.

In Edmonton, you can be sure that Todd McLellan is going to keep McDavid far away from Jonathan Toews, who had him basically pocketed all of Sunday evening. At least until overtime, which doesn’t count anyway. The thought of Run CMD lining up across from any of Artem Anisimov or SuckBag Johnson is certainly enough for your discounted Halloween candy to come rushing back out the way it came in in a state of panic. But this is how these things go. The reverse is if Toews can get to see Ryan Strome or Kyle Brodziak more often.

The Hawks closed the book on October, which they played at a 94-95-point pace for the season. That’s just about the minimum it’s going to be for a playoff spot, and that’s being awfully optimistic. As as fun as it was at times and the few signs of hope, the Hawks have to actually pick it up a bit. Not that they can avoid a mud-pit battle royale all season, but it’s a nice thought for now. They lost two points they should have had last night, so they need to start grabbing two points you wouldn’t count on them having beforehand. Maybe tonight isn’t that, but they do have ground to make up.

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Game #14 – Hawks vs. Oilers Spotlight: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins And Recognizing And Maximizing What You Have

By Sam Fels November 1, 2018 1567 0

You’d think if a team somehow hoarded three of the top five picks of any draft year, you’d have a real peach of a team. Hell, even two should do it. That’s what the Sharks did for years with Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton who were the #1 and #2 picks in the same draft. But then again, leave it to the Oilers to collect top-five picks from a draft that pretty much sucked. So the Oilers are left with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, and Ryan Strome, and that silly look on their face they’ve had for north of 20 years. Also, the latter two cost them top-10 picks from other drafts, and who were unquestionably better players.

It’s not RNH’s fault he was taken at the top of the 2011 draft. He was the best player in a weak crop. It’s not even the Oilers’ fault. They had the top pick, and they took what was best available. Looking back through it, the best player in that draft turned out to probably be Dougie Hamilton, but you couldn’t get too many sheets of paper between him and anyone else, likely Mark Scheifele. And no one was saying Scheifele or Hamilton should go #1 in that draft at the time. Does anyone trade a #1 pick anymore? Maybe there’s a lesson there.

And Nugent-Hopkins has been fine. More than fine, really. He’s put up solid #2 center numbers pretty much his entire career. Never less than 43 points, never more than 56. On a really good team, which he’s never seen, that’s probably a third center. For the Oilers, it’s been a second, which tells you a lot, and until McJesus showed up a #1 center, which tells you more.

The Oilers probably missed their window to sell high on RNH, if they ever realized he would never live up to his #1 pick billing. That window certainly closed when they handed him $6M over seven years after his entry-level deal expired. But what do you do? You’ve taken this guy #1, McDavid wasn’t anywhere near the scene yet, and you have to look like you know what you’re doing somewhat. We said, “somewhat.”

And now the Oilers are on the brink of making that $6M look very economical, despite themselves, which we have to believe means it was on accident. After handing Leon Draisaitl a huge deal last year, the Oilers knew they pretty much had two #2 centers, and one center who would be far too expensive to be anchoring a third line. Draisaitl is getting the bigger paycheck, so they’ve left him to work out the more valuable role, behind Run CMD. Which means for the first time in his NHL career, Nugent-Hopkins is on a wing. And he seems to be taking to it.

RNH has 13 points in 11 games running with McDavid, as just about anyone would (though the Oilers keep finding players who somehow can’t, a true miracle). He’s never been anything close to a point-per-game as a center, but in that range is the buy-in for a half-decent winger with the best player in the game.

This could work out well for all parties. If RNH were to put up 60 or 70 points this year, that’s well worth $6 million a year. For the two years the Oilers have left to pay him, they would think that’s a good deal. It also might look attractive to other teams, who won’t see much past the point-total and the salary and perhaps not the factors that led to it. After all, very few teams can put a winger with a center anywhere near the quality of McDavid. There’s like three others, maybe. So get ready for an RNH-Kessel trade this summer or something.

It also works out for RNH. He will hit the UFA market at the age of 28 in the summer of 2021, though under a new CBA. After a couple years with McDavid who knows what his numbers could look like, and he can advertise being able to play both wing and center. That’s assuming he doesn’t cash in with the Oilers themselves, but free agents at 28 are still something of a rarity in the NHL. A raise from his current $6M per year should be a kip.

Nugent-Hopkins never turned into the franchise-shifting center a #1 pick suggests. But he was in a year where someone had to have that label. After all this time, both he and the Oilers may finally be maximizing their value to each other.

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Game #14 – Hawks vs. Oilers Douchebag Du Jour: Big Kass, Who Sucks Ass

By Sam Fels November 1, 2018 1697 0

Interesting week for Zack Kassian, and certainly more interesting than a lot of barely 4th-liners in the NHL get to have. On Saturday night, Elliote Friedman, one of the best in the reporting business, broke a story on Hockey Night In Canada’s insider segment that Kassian had responded to a healthy scratch by having his agent explore a trade. Kassian immediately denied this, because no one in history has ever admitted publicly they’re ditching out on their teammates in a huff, and then of course scored against the Hawks on Sunday. You’re welcome.

This would be the fourth organization Kassian has played and/or bitched himself out of. While we can’t ignore that Kassian has had some serious off-ice issues that he is now recovered from, it’s always been his wholly disappointing play that has gotten him punted from one coast to the other and back again. And every time he starts landing in the pressbox, he starts aching for a trade instead of maybe, call us crazy, working on what makes him tumble down the lineup every fucking time.

Kassian’s size and somewhat plus mobility for that size will always seduce some team, but what does it matter when he can’t do anything with it? He’s stone-handed and dumb, and has been ever since Ray Ferraro made a spectacle of himself while slobbering all over the Canucks trade for him in 2012. He has the instincts of a boulder, and whatever “big man intimidation” he might have carried has less and less value in today’s game. Throw in that most nights he can’t even really be bothered, and you have a player everyone wants a control-Z over. He did exactly nothing in Vancouver, just as he did nothing in Buffalo, and followed that by not even making the Canadiens NHL roster before wasting the Oilers’ time. The fact that he was traded for equally useless Brandon Prust is just about the most NHL thing ever.

And every time it goes south, there’s Kassian exploring a trade as if the next destination will finally recognize him for the force that he is in his own mind. You can be sure the Oilers would be happy to oblige if anyone was going to fall for this trick again. It’s always someone else’s fault for not recognizing his genius.

Maybe you just suck, dude. Maybe you’re a 4A player, who’s never going to be anything more than the fourth-line role you keep falling into after a team gives you a chance to be a power forward on a top six. And no amount of angling or demands from your agent are going to change that. Maybe just enjoy the NHL paycheck and scrap away as a 12th-13th forward. It’s what you’ve proven to be after six goddamn years.

And now he’ll score tonight.

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Game #12 – Oilers 1, Hawks 1 (Oilers win 9-ball): Dizzy And Weakened By The Haze

By Sam Fels October 29, 2018 1747 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

You would be hard pressed to find a sleepier affair that tonight’s contest. Yes, both teams played yesterday, and that always leaves you prone to a less than tip top affair. If this is where you want to make an argument that the NHL should take a page from the NBA and expand their calendar to lessen the amount of back-to-backs and three-in-fours, you’d have a pretty big piece of evidence right here. Neither the Oilers or the Hawks were on the top of their games, or even in hailing distance of said. It’ll be summed up as a goalie battle, but neither Cam And Magic Talbot And Yet Another Cam Ward were asked to perform any miracles in net. This one just came and went. The Hawks didn’t get the bonus point after this one predictably and haphazardly meandered to overtime. Hopefully it won’t matter in the long run.

Let’s get through it.

The Two Obs

-There isn’t much to conclude from this one. It started off encouragingly, before the puck even dropped, as Joel Quenneville scratched Jan Rutta and Chris Kunitz. Both have been basically terrible all season, and Rutta was particularly offensive last night in St. Louis. This sets the table for Gustav Forsling and eventually Connor Murphy to punt Rutta down to Rockford (no one’s taking him on waivers), and I can only wait for that day with bated breath.

-This one was such a snooze, there isn’t a lot to draw from it. The one thing I think is worth mentioning is that Jonathan Toews was matched with Connor McDavid all night, and he had Run CMD in his pocket (ignore the OT goal because 3-on-3 is a joke). Toews went for a 65% CF% against McDavid, and that simply doesn’t happen. We’re not far removed from Toews being unable to keep up with the newest crop of stars, and tonight he stared down perhaps the best one there is. That bodes well for the future when Toews has to see Mark Scheifele, Ryan Johansen, and Tyler Seguin on the reg.

-But other than that, the Hawks seemed pretty wary of leaving too much room for the Oilers, or at least the Oilers top six all night. We saw what happened with the Lightning, and though the Oilers couldn’t get to where the Bolts are in a $50 Uber, they contain some serious speed and skill in spots. Defensemen were afraid to pinch too much, they were always ready to get back to their own zone, and it affected some of their attacking play.

-It’s kind of amazing when you see it live how much Milan Lucic sucks.

-I’ve had enough with the drop pass on the entry on the power play. I get it at times. But when a penalty killer is lagging behind waiting for said drop pass, and the Hawks are staring at a 4-on-3 entry at the blue line, then just fucking take it. That’s what you want. There’s more space. If you can’t find your way into the zone with three killers back, then there’s nothing to be done.

-I’m not sure how Brandon Saad missed the net on that chance in the second, but it seemed harder to do than hitting the target.

-Andreas Martinsen had a 0.0 CF% tonight. That’s not easy to do, even in eight minutes.

-Nick Schmaltz and that third line continues to get less than 10 minutes of ES time, and I don’t know why that should be when Schmaltz is probably your second most creative player out there.

-Henri Jokiharju led the Hawks in ES ice time, and that’s after a rough night in St. Louis. I think we know where Q’s heart is.

-Not much else to add.

Onwards…

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Game #12 – Oilers vs. Hawks Q&A: A Strange Form Of Existence We Know As SL

By Sam Fels October 28, 2018 1448 0

That’s all we can say. We had to go through several layers of security to get to him, and then found ourselves in a strange location we would not be able to identify. But he seemed to know what he was talking about, so we went with it. Follow him on Twitter @thescottlewis.

With all the noise about the Oilers, and the constant, fair criticisms of their wingers, how does the fact they may have horribly whiffed on Jesse Puljujarvi get missed?

If we flashback to the night of the 2016 Draft, the Oilers landing Puljujarvi at No. 4 was viewed as something of a steal at the time. People were busy laughing at the Blue Jackets taking Dubois with the third pick, which has turned out to be a fine selection for them. In a perfect world for the Oilers, they would be trotting out Matthew Tkachuk or Mikhail Sergachev on a nightly basis right now… but it’s the Oilers, so here we are. I’m not ready to close the door on Puljujarvi quite yet, so I’ll chalk it up to another case of management shitting the bed on development. He might still be something. Maybe. Hopefully. Probably not!

Is playing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on a wing really a solution? Because it leaves them short at center. Or is this a “cover your head, your feet are cold, cover your feet your head is cold” kind of situation?

Personally, I’d love to see him back at center full-time. BUT… he’s producing and his possession totals are looking pretty good so far. It’s definitely a patch job by the coaching staff, so it would be ideal to address the personnel shortage up front sooner than later if this team is to be taken seriously. We’re taking them seriously, right?

People seem to be coming for Leon Draisaitl, because he’s not playing with McDavid anymore. Yet he had the same season last year as the one before where he exclusively played with Run CMD, and is a point per game this year. We missing something?

To me, the criticism of Draisaitl is a product of his $8.5-million cap hit. He’s proving capable of carrying his own line, even if the possession metrics are pretty ugly so far this season. Canadian blowhards get worked up very easily when a player gets paid, but it’s hard to argue with the production so far. McDavid-Draisaitl ain’t going to be Crosby-Malkin or even Tavares-Matthews, but it’s as good a 1-2 punch you need when No. 1 is Run CMD.

Was it premature to toss that kind of money at Draisaitl right away? Yes. Was it even in the top-5 of GM Peter Chiarelli’s worst decisions since taking over? Nope. Let the kids play and hope you can alleviate the coming cap crunch by sending Milan Lucic to live on a farm in rural Alberta.

Our yearly Darnell Nurse update, please.

I soured on Nurse early in his career and didn’t see a whole lot last season to convince me he was ever going to become the player that Hockey Men continued to project him to be. He’s played over 27 minutes in a couple games so far this season, and in my opinion played his best game of the season in the Oilers’ 4-1 win over the Capitals Thursday night. So there’s that.

He’ll turn 24 this season, so it’s becoming less and less likely we’re going to see a huge step forward. At $3.2 million through next season, his ability to command a big raise will be tied to the club’s success. Bottom line, the Oilers need some pieces to improve, and given the fact that a lot of GMs still evaluate players like the old scouts sitting around the table in Moneyball, Nurse might be the Oilers best trade chip.

Ryan Strome will probably never live down being traded for Jordan Eberle. But moving to a third line center role at least sees him crushing it possession-wise so far this year. Maybe this is where he belongs?

Strome deserves a break on the Eberle chat, simply because that was a Chiarelli crime. It’s doubly frustrating having listened to GMPC cry about the club’s lack of wingers last season after he traded one of the best players in the league with Taylor Hall and a good second-line guy like Eberle. That said, Strome has looked decent in a third-line role while producing absolutely nothing to this point. Some semblance of production would be nice.

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