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Game #68 – Hawks vs. Stars: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels March 9, 2019 1190 0

Got them back, though we don’t have individual charts yet, and may just go without them. For now, this is a step up.

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Game #68 – Hawks vs. Stars: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels March 9, 2019 1205 0

Notes: There’s little reason to think they’ll change from a winning lineup from Thursday, such as it was. Hayden will barely play so Saad and Toews will just rotate wingers. We’d actually like to see what Sikura could do there for a game or two…Perlini was a nice add for the Otter Boys. He gives them more speed to open up space, though not nearly the defensive responsibility that Kahun provided. Whatever, anything’s worth trying these days…Has Colliton given up on Forsling? He should, and he’s been out for a couple…Power play has gone stale, as teams are on to the entry now and Hawks aren’t getting as much movement, should try and change it up soon…

Notes: Faksa could return to the lineup tonight, and would likely replace Nichushkin and slot Ritchie down to the 4th line…Radulov had a hat trick in their last game, and lit up the Hawks for three points the last time they met…Bishop has given up one goal in his last three appearances, so it’ll be a task to solve him enough…Seguin has one goal in his last seven…Lindell and Heiskanen have swapped spots, and Klingberg and Heiskanen have really clobbered the opposition together, though they start every shift in the offensive zone…

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Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks Preview/Brunch Fight: Let The Children Boogie

By Sam Fels February 24, 2019 1594 0

vs.

RECORDS: Stars 30-25-5 Hawks 26-27-9

PUCK DROP: 2pm

TV: WGN

FROM A DC-9 AT NIGHT: Defending Big D

It’s such a weird year. The Hawks lost the opening half of their showcase weekend, and yet that’s probably the best game they’ve played since…man, it’s hard to say. There have been periods here and there but overall, you could argue it was New Year’s Day. And they lost that one, too. But they don’t base the standings on aesthetics and who played better. All that matters is what you got out of it. The Hawks got nothing but a handful of themselves, which means they’d better get something out of this one if they’re serious about chasing until the end of the year.

From the Hawks’ perspective, they’ll get a couple of returnees. Brent Seabrook looks likely to return from his “abdominal” problem (and this is where we snigger about any trainer being able to find his abdominals), and Carl Dahlstrom should be over his case of the plague. Marcus Kruger also should be available after missing the third period on Friday. The first two mean that Henri Jokiharju will return to Rockford, and that’s a whole other discussion we’ll have soon at a podcast near you. So the defense will look like you’ve become accustomed to, and any change in the forwards is Perlini coming in for either Kunitz or Hayden or possibly Sikura, but that would be unfair to the kid.

Right, the Stars. Like any team stuck in this goo around the wildcards, this is not how they pictured their beautiful house. They’ve lost five of seven, and all of those without Ben Bishop who has been hurt. But he returned yesterday against the Canes, which means the Hawks will get Anton Khudobin today. Khudobin has been an excellent back-up this season, but having to take the main role broke his reserves, and he’s surrendered 14 goals in his last four appearances. Perhaps getting the break with Bishop back is all he needs to throw 35+ saves at the Hawks today, but let’s hope not.

The Stars are kind of like the Wild, in that they surrender more of the opportunities than they get but as you rate the chances better and better so do their numbers. So they create better chances than their opponents, and are happy to let them let fly from the hinterlands. Their problem of late as been they’ve been the anti-Motley Crue, they can’t get their heart kickstarted. They have a league-low 26 goals in the 1st period, and of late their stout defense has leaked first, which has them playing catch-up every game. As they were just playing some 20 hours ago or so, the Hawks would be wise to try and jump on them from the word go and see just how much they have in the tank to catch up again.

As always with the Stars, despite the bleating from their CEO, they’ll go as far offensively as Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn can carry them. They’re on different lines at the moment, but no one else on this team is scoring. The Stars simply haven’t gotten enough from anyone else you look at other than John Klingberg, who was hurt for a chunk. Further complicating matters for Gang Green is that Alex Radulov was sick yesterday and missed out, and his status for today is up in the air. Without him, there is a whole lot of not much here.

It’s not that the Hawks would be charred if they don’t get a regulation win here, but the coals would be certainly heating up. But if they do get the win, the Ducks and Kings are lined up next, and that’s four points they’re begging you to take. You’re also getting a team on the second of a back-to-back that had to travel, while the Hawks were simply waiting around. Quite simply, this is a game you have to have. So go get it.

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Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks Spotlight: Miro Heiskanen Feels Your Pain, Henri

By Sam Fels February 24, 2019 1386 0

It would be hard to not connect Miro Heiskanen and Henri Jokiharju. They’re both Finnish, they’re both 19, they were both on the Finnish World Junior team last season, and they’re both being anchored by their teams in some way. Also, both seem precocious but both have been vaulted onto their NHL teams a little more quickly than anticipated.

Jokiharju’s story you know. Heiskanen’s is a touch different. The Stars were a little more set on the blue line than the Hawks were, especially when Connor Murphy showed up to training camp missing a spine. The Stars saved their injuries for the regular season, when Heiskanen had already made the team, though the plan may have been just to give him a look. But he and Esa Lindell are the only d-men who have made the bell for every Stars game. John Klingberg has missed 18 games. Marc Methot has only played nine games. Julius Honka hasn’t established himself and has only played 29. Stephen Johns hasn’t played at all due to concussion problems. So the Stars ended up needing Heiskanen as much as the Hawks needed, and probably still need, Jokiharju.

And in a similar way, the Stars have tied Heiskanen’s skates together, though they had little choice. The rookie has spent most of the season tethered to Roman Polak, which as you know is akin to being tethered to a gassy walrus. While Heiskanen has dynamic puck-skill and skating ability, it’s hard to showcase that when you have to follow Polak around with a plastic bag every shift. Yes, Polak has the profile of the center fielder that an adventurer like Heiskanen would need. But Polak can’t move. Together, they’ve been getting clocked to the tune of a 45.3 Corsi-percentage. When Heiskanen gets away from Polak, he’s dead even 50%, which is ahead of the team-rate by a touch. It’s even worse when you get to scoring chances, as with Polak they only get 43% of them but away from Polak, Heiskanen is at 53%.

Really, Heiskanen has only flourished with John Klingberg, as the latter is one of the best puck-moving d-men around. And with the injuries, that’s about all the Stars have to offer. Things were slightly better with Esa Lindell, which was the route when Klingberg was hurt. Perhaps the acquisition of Ben Lovejoy yesterday is seeking to provide Heiskanen with a better spirit guide and safety net.

The picture will get clearer next year. Taylor Fedun, Polak, and Lovejoy are all UFA. It’s a real question if Honka will be re-signed even though he’s only just coming out of his entry-deal. He just hasn’t shown a lot at this level. The Stars can focus on building around Heiskanen, Lindell, and Klingberg. If Johns ever plays again, and after missing a whole season due to concussion problems that’s a fair question, he would seem the perfect partner for Heiskanen going forward. But they can’t count on that.

Perhaps the Stars will take the new-fangled route, and just have two guys who can skate and play like Heiskanen and Klingberg together. Considering the way the game is speeding up, more and more teams are going to. Maybe one day even the Hawks will figure that one out, too.

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Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks Q&A: Logan Stark Of Defending Big D

By Sam Fels February 24, 2019 1556 0

Logan Stark is a contributor at DefendingBigD.com. You can follow her @LoganStarkBook. Hey…Stark on the Stars. We just thought of that!

Let’s get this out of the way up top. While the CEO swearing about the team’s two stars is good for comedic value out here, isn’t it nonsensical as Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are just about the only reason the Stars are anything? (not to mention Benn’s long-standing place with the team and fans)

– First of all, Bishop and Khudobin have been absolute brick walls this season. They’re a large factor of why the Stars are still in a playoff position this late in the season. Second, Miro Heiskanen is a godsend for this team, especially when half the blue line was injured during the first half of the season. Okay, on to the real question. CEO Lites’ comments were beyond nonsensical. Not only did the tirade tarnish the team’s reputation around the league (what high-profile player would want to sign with the team now?), but it also made them a laughing stock. Benn and Seguin have proved Lites wrong with their on-ice performance, but those comments are continuing to hang over them and the team almost two months after they rocked hockey Twitter. Benn and Seguin are the faces of the franchise and are fan-favorites, and they were definitely fan-favorites for their classy responses to the comments. In the end, Lites’ comments backfired, I think, landing egg on his face – while getting some good splatter on the team that will come off with time. CEOs come and go, but Benn and Seguin are here to stay for a long, long time. In the end, it’s their on-ice performance and leadership in the locker room that matters the most. The team and coaching staff still support them, so why should fans do any different?

Why has Julius Honka not worked? The pedigree is there, he seems to have a coach that wants to play faster, and yet four points is four points…

– Do we have time for me to draft a graduate dissertation on why Honka hasn’t worked? No? Okay, let’s give this a shot: The yo-yo effect under Hitchcock last season did absolutely nothing for Honka. Not only was he bounced between the Dallas Stars and their AHL affiliate, the Texas Stars, but he was bounced with such frequency that he never had a chance to settle into the lineup and make a real impact. When Honka did spend time in Dallas, it was most often as a healthy scratch or with sub-par ice time. None of that helped his development and can only have hurt his confidence on the ice. We’ve seen flashes of his brilliance on the ice, but not this season. He’s been a healthy scratch with regularity under Montgomery, which leads me to believe that Montgomery doesn’t know where to slot him in within the current lineup. There’s just not room in the lines for a player struggling to produce (hush, let’s not talk about Nichushkin) and who needs time on the ice to get his skates back under him, so to speak. At this point, I would say it’s time to trade Honka, use him to bring in fresh talent that’s capable of producing at a steady rate.

Jim Nill has gotten three coaches. At what point does the cannon point at him?

– If the Stars fail to make the playoffs this spring, I think there’s going to be a turnover in the front office. It’s pretty clear that management expects this roster to be a repeat contender, yet they’ve failed to make a real postseason splash. If the Stars fail to make the playoffs (or fail to make it past the first round), I would place good money on Nill being let go. The lack of postseason performances and his lackluster record at the draft table would definitely be grounds for his exit from the team. At a certain point, it’s not about the coaches, but about the guy in the front office saddling said coaches with questionable trades, picks, and players.

What are the Stars gong to do before the deadline (assuming they don’t do anything before we print this, in which case I’ll just switch whatever you said to what they did and make you look like geniuses)?

– Nill has gone on record saying they’re looking for offensive power and depth at the deadline, and Dallas scouts have been checking out Zuccarello and Panarin. I would keep an eye out for the Stars to make a move for either of them on a rental basis (with an extension option on the table). One thing to watch for: the picks and/or players they send the opposite way. Just what is the front office willing to part with in exchange for a player that just might help the Stars get to the playoffs? In the past, Nill has been pretty good about not giving up first round picks or developing players that will aid the team. However, the Stars are getting desperate to make that playoff push this year, so is this the year Nill finally parts with the golden ticket of a first round pick?

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Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Poodle Lites, Poodle Chews It

By Sam Fels February 24, 2019 1525 0

In the end, it was just a publicity stunt.

That’s all you can make of CEO Jim Lites airing out his team’s two biggest stars, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, in the press before he had ever talked to them. It’s hard to think of another CEO, who doesn’t hold GM duties as well, in any sport who decides to go so public with his criticism players on the team. Sure, Jerry Jones might in Dallas as well, and maybe that’s what Lites thought he was doing. Maybe they like blowhards in Dallas. And if you’re in Texas, we guess you have to be the biggest blowhard you can be.

The Stars problem has never been Seguin and Benn, of course. Maybe they weren’t having their career-years, but the main issue is that Lites has let GM Jim Nill create a Top-Of-The-Muffin-To-Ya roster. Jason Spezza is going to be put on display next to Sue at the Field Museum soon enough. Their kids like Janmark, Faska, and Ritchie have done jack and shit. They’ve been injured, but the blue line has John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen and that’s it. He’s been allowed to pick up trash like Jamie Oleksiak and Roman Polak and now Ben Lovejoy.

If this were any other sport, Lites’s tirade would have been met with a response of one finger up from each Seguin and Benn, a trade demand, and scorched future of the entire franchise. But you can’t do that in hockey, and maybe that’s what Lites was counting on. It seems especially harsh on Benn, who has only ever been a Star, the captain, and could have asked out at many points when the team wasn’t up to the standards he has always set.

Maybe he just wanted to make a ripple in a Dallas sports scene where the Stars are falling behind. The ‘Boys will always be #1, #2, and #3. But the Mavericks now have Luka Doncic, and next year when he’s paired with Kristaps Porzingis the Mavs will be one of the more watched teams in the NBA. The Stars have won one playoff series in a decade. It’s now how you keep up.

If the Stars fail to make the playoffs, it won’t be because Seguin and Benn didn’t do everything they could. It’ll be because Lites let a GM fail to back them up for a good five years.

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Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels February 24, 2019 1191 0

Note: Corsica is still down so these are numbers pulled from earlier in the week.

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Game #63 – Stars vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels February 24, 2019 1224 0

Note: Corsica is still down, so the Stars xGF% were not available.

Notes: These don’t include yesterday’s game…There could be a couple changes from this. If Radulov is healthy enough to go, he’ll replace Nichushkin, and slot up with Seguin with Spezza on the third line. The Stars also acquired Ben Lovejoy yesterday, and he could make his debut in place of Fedun…Benn has dropped down with Faksa to form a checking line, which is a use for him, we guess…Klingberg and Lindell aren’t pushing the play nearly the way they did last year…Seguin has 12 points in his last 10 games…Klingberg has one goal since January 10th…all Cogliano does is get the play in the right end. Might be a sneaky cheap signing this summer to push Saad back up into the top six…

Notes: Our best guess on defense. We wouldn’t think that Colliton would want to hang Koekkoek immediately out to dry after his game-costing turnover against the Avs, but Forsling could replace him. Dahlstrom will probably go right back in…Perlini could come in for Kunitz or Hayden…Strome’s line had their first dominant game in a while against the Avs, with all three above 60% in Corsi…Kane had 13 shots against the Avs, tying for a team-record…

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Game #37 – Hawks vs. Stars Preview/Hard Eight Appreciation Society: The More You Know

By Sam Fels December 20, 2018 2040 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 11-19-6 Stars 17-14-3

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SOME WERE SHOUTIN’ “TEXAS #1!”: Defending Big D

I don’t know if a team rooted to the bottom of the standings, with the worst goal-difference in the league by open lengths, can have anything resembling “momentum.” Especially when it was only two games ago it gave up a touchdown and PAT while their goalie sank back into the abyss. But hey, the Hawks played what may have been their most solid game all season against the (admittedly beat-up) Predators. And though there isn’t much to make out of the rest of the season, they won’t feel that way. So hence, they will try to build on it in North Texas, facing the same confounding Stars team they always find there.

If you thought the Predators were injury-filled, wait until you get a load of these guys. The Stars have used 12 d-men so far this season. Now you may think, “Wait a minute, the Hawks have used 10! So is 12 really that much!” Well, the Stars have had to go through their entire organizational depth on the blue line because of injuries, not because they’ve populated it with a collection of fuckwits and jackwagons.

John Klingberg has been out for weeks, but he returns tonight, so that’s great for the Hawks. So has Marc Methot and Connor Carrick, though I leave it to you to decide if that means anything, or should. Stephen Johns hasn’t played a game due to concussion problems. Klingberg has obviously been the big miss, as he’s one of the best puck-movers and passers in the league. The Stars base most of their offense on what he can do, and he can’t do anything from the trainer’s room.

And yet, with all that the Stars have been a top-10 team in goals-against at evens and overall. A lot of that is THE BISHOP! having an excellent season. Some of that is Jim Montgomery being able to keep whatever defensive unit he has on a given night playing a tight system. Or maybe it’s still the frame of Hitchcock lingering around. Either way, the Starts have survived.

Up front, it’s basically Colorado-Lite. There’s a great top line here of Jamie Benn–Tyler Seguin-Alex Radulov. While Seguin couldn’t throw a grape in the ocean right now, compared to his career shooting-percentage, these are three players over 25 points. The next forward on the list is Jason Spezza at 18, and he’s sick anyway and might not play tonight either, aside from being three days older than water. This has been the issue for the Stars for years, that they can’t seem to produce a second line, much less a third, that can support the top one. We go into this heavier in the Spotlight, but all the kids the Stars were depending on have basically gone flaccid.

Still, it’s not all doom and gloom, or meh and feh as has been the Stars case. Rookie Miro Heiskanen is making everyone go weak in the knees, and will dovetail nicely with Klingberg as a support, second-pairing player. Taylor Fedun has been an analytic revelation filling in for the depleted defense. Which is a good thing, because when you’re rolling out Roman Polak with a straight face, you’re supposed to be in trouble. And we mean literally “rolling,” because Polak can’t skate. He’s basically what Donkey Kong throws on the ice now.

All that said, the Stars are still aimed for another 88-92 points season without a jolt somewhere here soon, the same kind of season that no on remembers when it’s over. It’s also the kind of season that doesn’t push a team forward. This is not a rebuilding team blooding a lot of new kids. They won’t be bad enough to get a real piece in the draft that can help in the next couple years. They’re not contending for banners. They’re just scenery right now, and that’s the absolute worst place to be.

As for the Hawks, you would think changes would be on the minimum. Cam Ward looks to start, which means Collin Delia gets to deal with Galactus’s playthings tomorrow night in Denver in the form of MacKinnon and Rantanen, which seems a tad harsh for a second NHL start. Given the defensive effort on Tuesday, one would imagine there would be no changes there. So Brandon Manning can continue to blame everyone else while munching popcorn. Marcus Kruger didn’t make the mini-trip, and SuckBag was called up yesterday and he’ll probably slot in ahead of Chris Kunitz, because no one wants to watch Chris Kunitz ever again.

This is where we usually try and include some sort of higher meaning to the game and streak the Hawks are on. There isn’t any. They were enjoyable to watch on Tuesday. Let’s hope they are enjoyable tonight.

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