Everything Else

Notes: It’s almost full systems go for the Preds. Forsberg and Arvidsson are back to form the top line that has given the Hawks migraines for a few years now. Turris is still out long-term, but Subban is back, whom the Hawks haven’t seen yet this year either…Saros started Monday in Toronto so it should be Rinne tonight…Jarnkrok could center the second line with Sissons moving down, they’ve tried both in the past….Smith has four goals in his last four games…

Notes: The Hawks might try and wriggle out of their defensive jam by using Seabrook’s sickness this morning (morning sickness?) as cover. They’ll have hard decisions to make otherwise. The best would be to make Keith and Seabrook the third pairing, but they won’t do that…Hayden could draw in for Kunitz, not that it matters….with no back-to-backs on the horizon it’s time to let Delia ride and see what you’ve got…some point soon they’re going to try Caggiula at center…

 

Game #46 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Had to wait a day on this one due to the Hawks playing last night, but you knew I was going to get to Stan Bowman’s latest oral trash-spillage to The Athletic’s Scott Powers yesterday. There’s some truly great stuff in here, and once again proves that either Stan is straight up lying to you, or doesn’t really know what he’s doing or watching any more, and either way is more than happy to toss his old coach under yet another bus even though at this point he’s flatter than week-old Sprite. Let’s jump right in, shall we?

Stan Bowman: Setting the standings aside, we dug ourselves a big hole that way, but the way we’re playing now is much more like a regular team. For a while there, we were sort of underwater where we’ve had some glaring issues and then we’d finally fix those and something else would (go wrong). Now we win and lose games, but we’re like a normal team, right?

First question, so real genuine, top-quality horseshit. At least he didn’t wait around! What in the living fuck does “regular team” mean? Clearly Stan is talking about the Hawks recent record, but as a very charming and handsome blogger recently pointed out, the team’s recent record is empty. The process is flawed. The Hawks recent record is due to Collin Delia playing out of this world, Cam Ward being shockingly competent, and the power play finding its feet for the first time since 1876. And hey, the last part is worth cherishing, and I guess you can go far with a power play and goalies playing well. That’s what the Capitals are. But that’s not what you’re aiming for, it’s not sustainable. Since the Hawks broke that second eight-game losing streak, how many games would you say they’ve clearly been the better team? Certainly Sunday in Pittsburgh. I’d say the Winter Classic too. Maybe last night for two periods but the Hawks were dong-whipped in the third last night by a clearly superior team. The second win in Colorado. Their win over the Predators. And the first win over the Penguins. That’s five of out of 13 games. Sure, you won more than that thanks to one guy mostly. That’s what you’re aiming for? You got killed by the Islanders! You’re giving up 40 shots a night! Your metrics blow! Didn’t you tell us one of the reasons you liked Jeremy Colliton is he would actually pay attention to those? Who cares, you don’t!

I was reading something about the Islanders — it was right around New Year’s Eve I read this story — and they said “now we’re finally getting what Barry (Trotz) wanted us to do.” A new coach came in, so it took them half a year. But they had training camp, so they had all of September, all of October. And then it’s almost like in November is when your schedule gets tougher. You don’t play a lot of games in October, so you have more practices. It was right when the schedule got tougher is when Jeremy came in. He had a few practices. It was a really tough start there. But I think now we’ve played a lot of games, so our second half we’re going to have a little bit more time to practice. The flip side of that is just guys are more wound down, so you probably don’t want to practice as much as you do.

Then maybe you should have fired the coach before the season like you wanted to anyway, y’know, if you had a pair of balls.

But so I think we’ve stabilized our situation to where now I think you can see we’re starting to play more like he wants us to play. Like I said, we don’t win every game, but we’re playing better in all these games. I think the process took a while to play out, but it was sort of understandable given our little time to practice.

Giving up 40 shots a night is where you want to be? I mean I appreciate the flair for dramatic but…

I talked about this the last time we met. You have to try to put players in places you think that your coaches really like or they have attributes that are important to your coach. Similar like, (Carl) Dahlstrom’s played really well, but he played great last year for Jeremy. Yeah once he’s got up here, he played a lot better. He was here last year and he was OK, right? But I think he’s playing much better now. You can say, well, it’s because he’s more mature and he’s used to it or you can say that the style we’re playing now is more conducive to his game.

We’re running out of buses to throw Q under. And while Q’s player evaluation could be weird for sure, I doubt he ever would have thought Brandon Manning or Jan Rutta were anything other than “the suck.” And this also raises the question of why the Hawks farm team is playing a different system than the NHL team and why you’d intentionally confuse any kid who came through both. The only one to be good right off the bat so far have been Top Cat and Jokiharju, who wouldn’t you know it never spent any time in Rockford.

I’m sort of the same way trying to evaluate we’re not where we want to be in terms we’re not at the top of the standings like we had been in previous years. You have to determine which of the players on this year’s team right now can realistically be contributors next year and in the coming years.

I think there’s no question we’re on the rise. We’re a team that’s going to be better a year from now than we are now and two years from now. We should be trending upwards. A lot of our best players are our young players with the exception of a couple guys. We’re not a veteran-laden team like some teams are.

The goal for the remainder of the year is to watch the team and evaluate areas where you’re deficient and then figure out, can some of these guys fill that as we go ahead or we do have to bring new players in? Do we have players coming that can (step in)? Sort of you have to make an assessment of where you’re at and then find out how you can bridge that gap. Really over the next whatever 35 games or whatever we have left, you have to watch our young players and see what role they can play for us next year realistically. Then how does that plot out on a roster and then for the areas that we don’t have that we will need, how do we fill those holes?

That’s not what you said before the season, except any goofus with at least one eye would have seen this roster wasn’t good enough. Are we supposed to trust you on the gear change after you told us this roster was good enough?

To answer your question, I do think we can turn it around quickly. Our goal is not to be in this position a year from now. We’re not trying to not win games. I think even if we brought the exact same roster back next year, which we’re not going to do, but if we did, we would be better because we would not have to go through the adjustment period. We’re playing now like a team that if we played this way from the beginning we’d be in the mix, right? Still not the team we want. We want to be a team at the top. We certainly need to add a couple players to the group we have here. Whether that’s through trade or draft or free agent, there’s no reason to think we can’t look at our team next October and be, like, really excited about where we’re headed next year as well as the year or two after that.

Didn’t you say this last year? And again, you’re not playing that well! You’re getting lucky! A goalie you never planned on being part of this team is playing incredibly well. And we don’t even know if that’s real yet. You don’t have anything here yet. Are you paying any attention at all or are you too busy booking Bobby Hull for another appearance?

Stan goes on to talk about Crawford and the World Juniors, and the one thing I’ll say about Powers and the rest is that when Stan goes off about Beaudin, Boqvist, and Mitchell there’s never any question about how the Hawks are going to crowbar those three onto the roster, even two years down the line, when we know Jokiharju, Keith, Seabrook, and Murphy are going to be here and Dahlstrom and Gustafsson are at least pretending to play themselves into long-term roles. That’s what I’d like to know.

I understand Stan can’t really come out and say, “Yeah the wins are nice but they’re total luck and really we still suck because we have less regulation wins than anyone (they do). And I don’t know how we get out of this because Keith and Seabrook have turned to dust and I can’t get rid of them.” He’s got to sell this somehow.

The fear is he actually believes this shit. Which means the Hawks are pretty much doomed from here on out.

 

Everything Else

If you looked at the score and thought, “Four goals? DEY GOTTA START WARD MY FRENTS” let me just tell you to shove it right up your ass. Collin Delia played an exceptional game against one of the best teams in the league right now, and oh yeah one of those was an empty netter so I don’t want to hear any shit. To the bullets:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– This game was fast and entertaining. The first period had a combined 28 shots, and both goals were beauties. Gaudreau’s was the result of a defensive breakdown (SHOCKING) as Dahlstrom got mesmerized by a scrum in the crease and left Gaudreau alone with a wide open net. He made it look easy. So too did Patrick Kane near the end of the period. A quick pass from Anisimov at the blue line, Kane skated it in alone, and David Rittich let the backhand by him with barely even a wave of his arm. Both goals would have been prevented by better defensive play but both were damn enjoyable to watch.

– In the second, the Flames came out a little flat and the Hawks actually took advantage of this with yet another beautiful Kane-to-DeBrincat scoring play. Watching this, hell, writing this, makes me want to curl up in the fetal position while thinking of how Top Cat and Kane could be a permanent second line with Dylan Strome, but I’ve done enough agonizing over the decisions of Chicago coaches for one week, thank you very much.

– In addition to that goal in the second, the Hawks were leading in possession with a 67 CF% at the halfway mark of the period (I’m referring to the second period only; they actually were underwater in possession in the first). Delia made some solid saves and the Hawks were driving the play, until Dylan Strome took a penalty during the very power play he caused by drawing a penalty. Cosmic, no? Anyway, the 4-on-4 seemed to ignite the Flames (SEE WHAT I DID THERE) and Monahan tied it up a few minutes later on yet another penalty, this one by Gustafsson.

– Despite that penalty, Erik “Scoring Machine” Gustafsson continued his point streak tonight with two assists, bringing it to six games with at least a point. He had a 56.8 CF% to boot, so if it weren’t for that dumb penalty I’d have actual nice things to say about him.

– OK, let’s talk about Collin Delia. He finished with a .929 SV% and he faced 42 shots, 18 of which came in the third. The first goal was, as already mentioned, the result of his defenders leaving one of the best players in the league with the entire net to himself and about 15 minutes to sit there thinking about scoring. The second goal was a power play goal, and it took multiple tries for Tkachuk and Monahan to elevate it past Delia, because when they tried their point-blank passing play and shot, Delia was in the perfect position and made the save. The third goal was the result of the shittiest change possible when three Hawks just ignored Gaudreau AGAIN and left him literally at center ice, alone, with the puck. None of these can be pinned on Delia because to get it past him the Flames had to be at their very best. And had it not been for Delia, this easily could have been 7-3. I’m happy to see Delia look calm under pressure and clearly be able to handle a barrage of shots thanks to this Swiss cheese they call a defense. But listening to Jamal Mayers and Steve Konroyd in the pre-game talk about how the “hot hand” should play, and how it really should be Ward if this weren’t the second night of a back-to-back, is just mind-numbingly infuriating.

– OK, enough of that. God damn the Flames’ top line is dominant. Not only did Johnny Gaudreau score twice, and seemingly at will because for some reason the Blackhawks kept ignoring him or pretending he wasn’t real, but he, Monahan and Lindholm had an 81 CF%. This isn’t news; I just had to say it.

Brandon Saad was nearly having a minor resurgence of the bad old days where he couldn’t score to save his life. How he didn’t score on the open net in the second I’ll never understand, although credit to Sam Bennett who poked the puck away from Saad, and Rasmus Andersson who tied him up just long enough to deny him the rebound opportunity. He got the third goal with seconds to spare in the game, which unfortunately was pointless, but there is nothing to panic about with Saad.

David Kampf hit the god damn post. Sometimes I marvel at the synchronicity of the universe but in this case I’ve had just about enough.

– The Hawks’ resurgent power play? Nonexistent tonight. It in fact did revert to the bad old days. I’ll leave it at that.

Brandon Davidson had a couple nice plays tonight, including a nice stretch pass to Kane and preventing yet another shot on goal as Delia was getting pummeled in the third. It almost made me feel bad that we’ll never see him again once Jokiharju gets back from partying with the Juniors team.

It’s annoying that the Hawks blew a lead and couldn’t even salvage one point, but the Flames are a genuinely good team so that’s just the world we live in. We got another one in just 48 hours…onward and upward.

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Flames 26-13-4 (1st in Pacific)   Hawks 16-21-7 (6th in Central)

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

FRIENDS OF CAL AND GARY’S: FlamesNation.ca

It’s a cruel world, this NHL. After the Hawks played what was maybe their best game of the season in Pittsburgh last night, outplaying the hottest team in the league, their reward is to wheel it back out there again tonight against another first-placed team who has been waiting for them. And one that’s already beaten them twice this season. It ain’t all waitin’ on you, as Sheriff Tom Bell’s brother told him at the end of No Country For Old Men. 

All seems pretty right in the world for the Calgary Flames, who are at least almost all of the way pivoted to David Rittich in goal, which was their biggest issue. The top line has gone absolutely bonkers, with all of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias (I SAID WWE STANDS FOR….) Lindholm in the top-20 in scoring in the league. Matthew Tkachuk is having quite the free agent hear with 49 points his own damn self from the second line, where Mikael Backlund continues to beat anyone about the head and face possession-wise. They even get contributions from the bottom-six, even if James Neal will soon require a Hazmat treatment to be around.

The defense is the real key, where Mark Giordano‘s normal Norris-worthy year has been joined by a rebound from T.J. Brodie, and a bigger rebound from Travis Hamonic on the second-pairing. They’re even letting child Rasmus Andersson freewheel on the third-pairing, and he’s got wheels for days (and you got ass for weeks yeah yeah yeah).

Earlier in the year, the Flames were having defensive issues, even with that personnel. That seems to have cleared up a little, as only the Sharks give up less attempts per game at evens, and they’ve improved to middle of the pack in xGA/60 from near the bottom where they were. Any middling goals-against numbers are mostly the result of having Mike Smith and his arms that don’t work on the roster, and insisting on playing him any other time than when Rittich has the plague. As with most Bill Peters led teams, their metrics are glowing and this all appears to be real.

Whether the Flames can negotiate their way far in the spring depends on if Rittich is the real deal when it really counts, and if they can finish top of the division. Do that, and you only have to beat one of the Knights or Sharks to get to the West final. Don’t and you have to go through both, and that’s going to be a real trick.

As for the Hawks, they’ll turn to Collin Delia tonight, and you’d have to imagine given the Flames firepower he’s going to be awfully busy. In his limited NHL experience, this is about as good of an offense he’s seen, barring the uncaring Jets at the end of last season. Sure, the Avs have their top line but the Flames have that and then more. So this will be an interesting test, especially behind a tired team.

Shouldn’t be any other changes. Would expect Chris Kunitz to stay in the lineup after not being a toxic waste dump last night. Henri Jokiharju did fly back to Chicago last night and could play but I think Wednesday is more likely. They’d want at least one practice or morning skate, if only to figure out where exactly he slots. But you never know. Other than that, Drake Caggiula makes his home debut.

If the Hawks are going to get anything out of this one, they’ll need the special teams just like they did last night. The Flames aren’t a great PK team, and their power play is not as good as you’d think given what they have on it. A power play goal or two are close to a requirement.

 

Game #45 Preview Suite

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Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

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Notes: That top line is going to be quite the challenge for Murphy and Dahlstrom. Gaudreau has 11 points in his last four games and Monahan has nine…Rittich can’t quite seem to fully grab the #1 job yet, as Smith got two straight starts after the turn of the calendar, but Rittich has gotten the last one and they won so expect him to go tonight…Bill Peters still hates Michael Frolik…Tkachuk also has seven points in his last four games…

Notes: Wouldn’t expect too many changes. There’s an outside shot that Jokiharju plays tonight as he came back last night, but without a morning skate or practice to bleed him back in Wednesday seems more likely…Delia will start, and he will be busy…Toews’s line absolutely destroyed the bottom six of the Penguins last night, which was curious that they weren’t eventually combatted with Crosby…Caggiula didn’t look helpless, and they’re already making noise about moving him to center, so you can look for Kruger’s name to come up in trade talks…

 

Game #45 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 15-21-7   Penguins 23-12-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

MUNCHIN’ ON A JOE, DICK, AND STANLEY: Pensburgh

While it’s easy to look at the Kings and Hawks, two recent main forces in the NHL, falling on hard times, throw your hands up and say, “Well, that’s just the price of being good for a while,” the Penguins keep putting their thumb in that eye. And when it looked like the Pens would join the Hawks and Kings in the has-been room, they go and ruin it all by doing something stupid like ripping off 10 of 11 since the last time these two met. That has seen them tied atop the Metro division again, with the Capitals, and we’re going to do this dance forever.

It’s not much of a secret how the Penguins managed it. Matt Murray came back from the wilderness and hasn’t lost. Since that Hawks game that he missed, Murray has gone 7-0-0 while giving up just nine goals. Casey DeSmith, despite being a woman-beating dickhead, has backed him up ably, and hence it’s nearly impossible to score more than one or two against the Penguins of late. You can win a lot of games like that.

At the opposite end. having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin sure helps. Crosby has gone off for 29 points in his last 17 games, taking Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust–he of the hat trick the last time we saw the Pens–along with him. Phil Kessel has returned to the third line, though his combo with Derick Brassard has been just short of a disaster. That’s almost all Brassard’s fault, who has just not fit in The Steel City at all, at least not at center. Kris Letang is also molten-hot, and he’s basically all their drive from the back end as the bottom two pairings are a lot of construction horses in the form of Olli Maatta, Jamie Oleksiak, and Jack Johnson (he the name you know).

Given the state of the Metro, there’s little reason the Penguins can’t get back to a conference final, and if Murray is going to be like this then they could go farther. Obviously he’ll have to be that level to get past the Lightning. But a goalie and star power is just about all you need to make a run in the NHL. The Penguins have both right now in spades.

To the Hawks, Cam Ward will take tonight’s start with Collin Delia going at home against the Flames tomorrow. So duck. Drake Caggiula will make his Hawks debut tonight on the fourth line, which is where he should be. His inclusion led to the demotion of Dylan Sikura, which makes us make a frowny face. Though Sikura hadn’t scored, his metrics were really good, he’d showed and understanding with Alex DeBrincat, and Brendan Perlini just doesn’t have the same dash. But whatever, he’ll probably be back soon. Chris Kunitz seems to be drawing back in in a place where he played, throwing a useless veteran a bone for reasons we wouldn’t understand and don’t want to hear. Henri Jokiharju would likely be back tomorrow, no later than Wednesday for sure.

This is not the time to be playing the Penguins, and especially at the Not-Igloo where they will get their matchups and will harass a Hawks defense that simply can’t escape its own zone. That three-pass bullshit the Hawks still insist on using to breakout will get them slaughtered tonight, so they need to play the Pens game and get it the fuck out and get it the fuck up the ice. Otherwise the Penguins loaded forward corps is going to go nuts. If the Hawks do that, it should be at least a fast, entertaining one. Until Cam Ward melts from the inside.

 

Game #44 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

 

Everything Else

Notes: Caligula makes his debut tonight, which for some reason necessitated the demotion of Dylan Sikura, who despite not scoring had been productive. It also give Top Cat even less to work with, as Perlini just doesn’t have the creativity that Sikura at least flashed…Ward starts tonight, with Delia going tomorrow at home vs. Calgary…Jokiharju should return tomorrow, ending our Forsling nightmare…

Notes: A brief apology, Corsica.ca wasn’t working so the individual metrics are still from last month. The line stats are updated…Since returning from injury last month, Murray is 7-0-0 with a .959. He shut out the Jets last time out…Sid has 23 points in 17 games since December 1st…Letang has 12 points in his last nine games…

 

Game #44 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Despite last night’s loss, or tie but goes down as a loss in a gimmick, the Hawks over the last 11 games have gone 6-3-2. That’s a pretty decent record, there are some decent teams in that stretch they’ve played, and had they been at that pace all season would work out to a 104-point pace. Were they to maintain it the rest of the year they’d end up with 87 points. Not nearly enough for the playoffs, not anywhere near the top of the lottery, but probably allows them just enough wiggle room to turn their palms up at the season-closing presser to say if just a couple things more had gone right or Crawford not gotten hurt or something to say they’re on the right path. And hell, maybe in some way if you squint real hard that wouldn’t be entirely wrong, depending on how players like Collin Delia, Henri Jokiharju, Connor Murphy, Carl Dahlstrom, Dylan Sikura, Dylan Strome, and one or two others close out the season and portend to the future.

But because results can get so weird in hockey and not really be connected to anything, we’re more interested in process around here. So in the last 11 games, is the Hawks process any better?

Starting on the day the Hawks beat the Penguins at home, they are 15th in points percentage. But they’re 27th in Corsi-percentage, at an unsightly 45.1% They’re 28th in scoring-chance percentage at an even more homely 44.3%. Salvation in high-danger chances? You best believe that’s a nope: 29th at 39.9%.

Worrying more is that all of these numbers are significantly worse than the Hawks’ season-long marks, which means whatever changes Coach Cool Youth Pastor is trying to make haven’t had an effect, or they have and made things worse than they were. That’s not where the Hawks are supposed to be, especially because he’s actually gotten a small, minuscule even, infusion of talent that Quenneville didn’t get in the form of Murphy, Dahlstrom, and Sikura (who’s been pretty good but keeps getting benched).

What the Hawks are getting over the last three weeks is luck and goaltending. Their PDO has risen over 1.000, to 1.021, and that’s mostly due to an even-strength save-percentage of .935 the last 11, which is ninth in the league, as opposed to their season-long .917. That’s a difference of six goals at just even-strength in 11 games, and you can imagine what kind of effect on results and points those six goals would have had, depending on where they were placed.

Has anything gotten better? Well, yes, a very little. A crimp you can barely hang onto. They’re giving up a touch less attempts and shots per 60, so that’s nice. But they’re taking less as well. They’re also giving up about the same amount of scoring chances per hour but are creating less. So that’s not optimal either.

What the Hawks have done is massively improve the power play, and that can be at partially credited to our very fashionable and hip coach. They’ve piled in nine PP goals in the last 11, where they’d only managed 11 in the 32 games before that. So that helps, and power play goals do count, despite what some would tell you. Somehow though, the penalty kill has gotten worse, giving up a goal per game in this streak while “only” giving up 23 in 32 games before that.

So while it’s been more enjoyable, in some ways, to watch the Hawks win a few games for a change, there’s nothing about it that suggests it’s sustainable or indicative of a brighter future. In the words of Homer Simpson, “It’s just a bunch of stuff that happened.” Or more to the point, Collin Delia made a bunch of damn saves and Cam Ward didn’t puke on himself the whole time.

That could be better.