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Game #48 – Hawks vs. Devils Preview/Cafe Inspection: “Parts Unknown” Always Means Downtown Newark

By Sam Fels 1684 0

  vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 16-22-9   Devils 17-20-7

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BADA BING ENTHUSIASTS: In Lou We Trust

Sky point, Bobby Heenan.

After taking two of the West’s best to overtime, and then losing in that gimmick when their slow defense wasn’t really prepared for 3-on-3, the Hawks venture for a week in New York to face some of the East’s sludge. There’s always sludge involved when you’re in New Jersey, but this time around it also applies to the team that resides there.

The Devils aren’t vying for a playoff spot this time around, like they somehow miracle’d their way to last year. One, Taylor Hall is hurt now, though he was over a point-per-game when he was fit. This time though, they aren’t getting goalie performance from out of a top hat, as Keith Kinkaid has returned to being Keith Kinkaid, Cory Schneider is now made out of boogers and adhesive, and they’re pinning their hopes on neophyte MacKenzie Blackwood. Somehow, the Devils only have the 12th-worst SV% at even-strength, even though both Kinkaid and Schneider can’t see .900 with a telescope.

It also doesn’t help that this isn’t a very good defensive team, with the fifth-worst xGA/60 in the league, and not much better in attempts against. It might have something to do with not having a d-man worth a damn on the roster. Andy Greene is a million years old and you’ve never heard of him anyway, so he’s the perfect Devils captain. Sami Vatanen has always been a power play weapon only, Will Butcher continues a long tradition of prized college free agents who end up being a fart in the wind, and Mirco Mueller has a really long neck. Damon Severson is probably worth holding onto, but that’s probably it. Look at this blue line and you’ll react like the business manager to Kramer. “I don’t know what this is supposed to be.”

Up front there’s some hope, even without the injured Hall. Nico Hischier is putting up some pretty impressive underlying numbers in a junior Bergeron act. Kyle Palmieri continues to score goals and also continues to make you wonder why you should give a shit. Miles Wood is a porn name. While this is a more dynamic and entertaining Devils team than the ones of yore, it still needs more talent than its got to be relevant…well, relevant maybe for the first time. I’m not sure they were relevant even when they were winning Cups. Certainly no one other than the highway-side strip club patrons bothered to notice.

For the Hawks, not too many changes one would think. Cam Ward will get the start to give Delia nearly a full week to reset after two tough losses his last two starts. Slater Koekkoek could make his debut tonight, and the Hawks might actually dress seven d-men to do so, but we won’t find out until gametime. The clear option is to scratch Seabrook and let Koekkoek run around on the third-pairing with either Carl Dahlstrom or Henri Jokiharju, but we all know Coach Cool Youth Pastor isn’t going to scratch Seabrook unless you dangled him off a cliff. Dahlstrom could face the axe as well.

The Devils murdered the Hawks twice last year, and basically killed Corey Crawford while they were at it. While not the most skilled, this is an extremely fast team and the Hawks couldn’t cope. The same rules as Saturday apply here, which the Hawks followed pretty well for the first 40. None of the complicated breakouts, just get the puck up to the forwards or ahead of them aw quickly as possible. Any missteps will be pounced on by the Devils’ quick forwards, so the simpler the better. Blackwood has looked very good in his brief foray, but put him under pressure and see what happens. The Hawks are slightly better equipped for these track meets than they were, though still not their strength.

There’s four games before the Hawks hit the bye. They probably need them all to not be buried by the time the bye is over and all those games in hand are made up. They can’t say their season is over, or act like it, even if we can. So if they’re intent on still a death rattle, it probably has to be now.

 

 

Game #48 Preview Suite

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Game #48 – Hawks vs. Devils: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels 1422 0

Notes: Ward gets the start tonight, which seems fine as Delia was a little wonky against the Knights. Overall fine, but his tracking and rebound control were not up to snuff, gives him almost a full week off before the Rangers on Thursday…Not too many other changes, though don’t be surprised if Murphy and Dahlstrom are split up late if it’s close. Dahlstrom really struggled on Saturday, and his first flash is fading. Still worth looking at, but maybe not under the glare of the hardest shifts possible…We’d like to see Jokiharju and Murphy together, but that would involve flipping Murphy to the other side and Coach Cool Youth Pastor doesn’t seem inclined to do that yet…we don’t know how Caggiula got himself onto that third line but he’s done jack and shit with it…

Notes: Taylor Hall is still missing through injury…we have Noesen listed but he’s hurt and is on IR…Blackwood is their prime goalie prospect and with both Schneider and Kinkaid either hurt or terrible it’s his net to lose for the next while, or years….Palmieri has one goal in his last eight, but he always seems to score against the Hawks…Hischier has eight points in his last nine games, which on this team is a veritable bonanza…

 

Game #48 Preview Suite

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Game #47 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks Preview/Lemon Cleanse: There’s A First For Everything

By Sam Fels 1683 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Golden Knights 27-16-4   Hawks 16-22-8

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: WGN

SEARCHING FOR ELIZABETH SHUE: SinBin Vegas

It sounds strange to say that the Hawks have never beaten an expansion team. You’d think you’d have gotten one by accident, all things being norma.. But the Golden Knights aren’t really a normal expansion team, and these haven’t been the normal Hawks. So in five tries, the Hawks have drawn an 0-fer. And they rarely have been close. Last out where they took the lead against the Knights in the 3rd is about as good as they’ve done, and they promptly hocked that up like a smoker’s phlegm as quickly as they could. This is also the same team that put a snowman on the Hawks at home. So yeah, let’s just say it’s not a great matchup.

The Knights come in after just having a seven-game win-streak snapped at home on Thursday by a San Jose team they’re having a tussle with at the top of the standings. After some wonky health and dips in performance, the Knights were getting both back at the time, with Marc-Andre Fleury shaking off some of the malaise that’s draped on him most of the year. Paul Stastny returned to give the Knights a second line worth worrying about, though now Reilly Smith and Cody Eakin have ended up on a trainer’s table. Eakin looks like he’ll slot back in tonight on the third line, though.

It’s not quite the fireworks of last year. Vegas’s leading goal-scorer is Alex Tuch with just 15. They’re only middle of the pack, averaging an even three goals per game even though they have some of the best possession-numbers around. And it’s some of the same problems that Carolina has had for years. You have to have some front-line snipers to turn that possession into goals, and not just William Karlsson vomiting up a 25% shooting-percentage for a season out of nowhere. The Knights have a bunch of good players, but perhaps not enough premier scorers to avoid some ruts at times, especially when Pacioretty has been subpar.

That hasn’t stopped them from being a major headache for the Hawks, as they simply can’t live with Vegas’s speed. With Brent Seabrook returning from illness tonight, that doesn’t figure to get any better either. The Knights move the puck out of their zone quicker than the Hawks’ forecheckers can bother them, and their forwards can beat the Hawks’ D all over the ice. especially to the outside. This causes the Hawks’ defense to back up and provide more space at the line, which is where the creative destruction happens. The last time these two met Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom weren’t in the lineup, and Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta were. We’ll see if that makes any difference.

For the Hawks, Slater Koekkoek, their new toy from Tampa won’t play tonight but they say he’s going to get a look. So one would have to believe that Brandon Davidson can start packing his bags. How Koekkoek will then get into the six is another questions, but one thing at a time, people. Henri Jokiharju will flip to the left side to accommodate Seabrook, and one has to wonder how much more accommodation and how much longer the Hawks can afford Seabrook. We’ll start to get answers on that soon.

Collin Delia will get the start again as he should, and shouldn’t see too many other lineup changes from the team that played well against Nashville. That means Caggiula and Saad on a third line and Top Cat in the top six. So y’know, fine.

Whenever the Hawks plan on being relevant again, they’re going to have to find a way to play a game this fast and play it well and beat the teams that already do it. Maybe that’s not tonight, maybe it’s next year. But I for one am a little tired of the Knights’ act, especially against the Hawks. So it would be enjoyable to finally get one over on them, just to see there’s been any progress whatsoever. That means none of this bullshit, three-passes-out-of-the zone ploy. Get it out and up and to your forwards as fast as possible. As little passing to someone standing still or moving backwards as possible, because that’s what the Knights feast on. Forward, forward, forward. You’ll give up chances, sure, but you’ll get Top Cat, Kane, and Toews in space too. Let’s have some fun.

 

Game #47 Preview Suite

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Game #47 – Golden Knights vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels 1444 0

Notes: Patches may be playing better but he sure does drag down that top line’s possession with Reilly Smith on the shelf…Wild Bill has one goal in his last 10…Fleury wasn’t very good in December but is managing a .930 in his four January starts…Smith and Eakin are out, and Haula remains a long-term casualty…Tuch has an eight-game point-streak…get ready for Olczyk to slobber all over the fourth line, especially if Kunitz plays on the Hawks’ fourth…

Notes: Slater Koekkoek was at the morning skate but it’s hard to see where he slots in just yet…Seabrook probably comes back in, with Jokiharju flipping to his off-side. The other pairings have worked enough to keep for a bit…if they’re keeping Anisimov on the second line and not putting Top Cat there for defensive reasons, you know that the Hawks have never seen an analytic number ever…given how they’re giving Caggiula every chance to prove he’s anything, maybe they’ll do the same for Koekkoek.

 

Game #47 Preview Suite

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Lineups & How Teams Were Built

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This Is Probably Patrick Kane’s Best Season

By Sam Fels 2405 0

That sounds weird to say, given he already has a Hart Trophy and all and was leading the league in scoring the year before that before his collarbone went TWANG! And yes, I’m one of those who doesn’t really like saying anything nice about the little fucker at all, but to deny what he’s doing on the ice this year would simply be a miscarriage of our job here.

Kane’s just about on pace to match his 106-point total from his MVP season, though not quite to the 46 goals he put up that year (he’s somewhere around 42-43). But at the top, the difference for me is the context. In ’15-’16, he played basically every shift with Artemi Panarin, himself an All-Star caliber forward.

This year? The teammate he’s shared the most time with is Artem Anisimov, and boy have we written that book. And most of that has been with Arty on a wing, not really his strength (if he has one). Then it’s Dylan Strome, who looks like he might turn into a pretty nice player but is still very much in the figuring-it-out phase. Then Brandon Saad, and then Nick Schmaltz. This is not a murderer’s row of talent, exactly.

And yet Kane is actually creating more and better chances this year, with less possession mind you, than he did in his MVP year. The Hawks xGF/60 with Kane out there is 2.31. It was 2.1 three years ago, though he did even better last year at 2.56 (Kane’s career-low 9.5 SH% last year probably kept him from having another 90-point season or so).

Kane’s individual high-danger chances per 60 is the highest it’s been since 2013-2014, which came on a much better team that opened up things for him a little better. He’s mostly having to do it himself this year, and clearly that’s not a problem for him. Just his scoring-chance per 60 at evens mark is one of the highest of his career, though not reaching the peak of ’13-’15. But again, those were different teams that just willed possession and chances because it felt like it.

A big difference from the past couple seasons for Kane is that he’s firing more on the power play. In the first part of the season it was because he was basically the only one who could, given the incompetence of the whole thing. Now it’s because that’s actually open. He’s taking 16.1 shots per every hour of power play time, which is right in line with where he was in that Hart season. It goes right along with him being on pace to set a career-high in power play assists, and Alex DeBrincat thanks him (it’s 22 set in ’08-’09, and he’s at 12 now and rapidly climbing).

Kane’s been able to get as many shots and chances for himself and his teammates despite those teammates being worse and this being just about the worst possession season of his career. Kane’s never been a great possession player, usually somewhere around the team-rate. But as McClure likes to say, he’s one of the few players in the league who’s a “bad-shot maker.” He doesn’t need the same chances as others to put up the same points, even if he does create those chances anyway. He’s basically hockey’s version of Steph Curry, in that anyone else playing this game would drive a coach to the bottle/hemlock, but he makes it work (no if only he were half the person…)

This is the first season that Kane is under water in terms of Corsi, and his xGF% is a downright shit-tastic 41.6%. But that’s more due to the bewildered blue line behind him, the shorter talent next to him, and really that Kane’s never been a great defensive player and has never had to or will have to be. Playing him with other defensively flawed players is only going to exacerbate that.

If you want the biggest reason the Hawks can’t “tank” other than moral or financial obligations, real or imaginary, is that Kane is probably going to be a major reason why they can’t be bad enough. He won’t get any MVP talk this year because the Hawks suck, and the theory would be they could such just as easily without him. Without him, they’d probably be far and a way the worst team in the league.

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Game #46 – Predators 3, Hawks 3, Predators Win Paint Huffing Duel – Got Stuck on Thoughts that I Know Ain’t Facts

By Rose Rankin 1818 0

The Hawks had no business keeping this game as close as they did. The Predators should be wondering what witch doctor they crossed who kept them from closing this out way earlier and robbing them of both points. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– For about the first three minutes the Hawks were outshooting the Predators and looked in control. Nashville quickly righted that situation and within what felt like a nanosecond, Colton Sissons (who sounds like some asshole high school quarterback from Texas) scored to take a 1-0 lead. The Hawks did score a power play goal in the first but then gave the lead back in what actually was a nanosecond (OK, it was like eight seconds later). A four-minute penalty was thrown in there, and with the exception of a solid power play the Hawks got domed in the first—behind in shots (17-13), goals (2-1), and possession (56-44 CF%).

– The Hawks managed to pull their shit together in the second and killed off the remainder of the four-minute penalty. They kept taking dumb penalties through the period, but Jonathan Toews scored a short-handed goal on Kampf’s tripping of Viktor Arvidsson right at the end. The PK looked very shaky at times but not at that moment. In fact, the pass from Kruger was perfectly placed as Toews was streaking into the slot, and his precision getting it past Rinne while moving at top speed was a thing of beauty.

– We’ve been saying for basically the entire season that Alex DeBrincat is not a fucking third liner, and apparently Coach Cool Youth Pastor came around to that notion today, because Top Cat was finally back on the top line. And what did he do? Scored a goal and had seven shots on the night. The goal was on the power play off a pass from Kane, and the entire play showed once again that Kane and DeBrincat work extremely well together, and every day that they’re not permanently on a line together is a crime against basic common sense. No, playing with Kane wouldn’t put him on the top line but the point is that DeBrincat should be in the top six. Don’t bother with tonight’s experiment with Saad on the stupid third line that is already pretty useless with Kampf and Caligula. Put Saad back with Toews and Kahun, and play DeBrincat-Strome-Kane. That’s a solid top six. I feel like I keep saying some iteration of this into the ether and you know doing the same thing repeatedly while expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. Thanks a lot, fucking Hawks.

– Anyway, they didn’t have many power play chances but the one they scored on had the movement we’ve been braying about over here, along with Toews in the high slot drawing defenders, which left Top Cat open for Kane’s pass. So maybe all that repetition isn’t totally insane.

– By the third it was pure luck that kept the Hawks in it. Nashville had a 58 CF% in the period and it was a whiffed shot and an untimely post that kept them from taking a two-goal lead. And they managed to let Wide Dick Arty score, so you know there was some combination of bad breaks and foolish mistakes. It only took about a minute into OT for Filip Forsberg to put it away with his second of the night.

– Henri Jokiharju had a solid return tonight, with a 63 CF% and a team-leading 23 CF% Rel. It’ll be interesting to see how Colliton maneuvers the defense when Seabrook returns from his bout of acute suck-itis that kept him out tonight.

– On a bit of a side note, the intermission segments on the broadcast tonight really epitomized how this league has no fucking clue who or what it is, or what it wants to be. The first intermission had a (very staged) segment with PK Subban handing out sweaters to a couple teammates, and they were made from recycled plastic supposedly taken out of the ocean. I’m skeptical of some greenwashing here, but nevertheless it featured timely themes, a black player, and was generally forward-thinking/feeling. Then, in the second intermission, we got Mike Milbury and Keith Jones showing grainy, shitty footage of themselves fighting fellow oafs back in the day and guffawing about how hilarious those days were. It couldn’t have been more backwards-looking or contradictory if someone had set out to make these segments as jarring as possible. Clearly there are multiple voices trying to direct these broadcasts, but the old guard has not lost that battle yet.

Back to the Hawks, they were fortunate to get one point since it was really Collin Delia bailing their asses out with a couple big saves in the third that even allowed them to get to OT. It won’t mean much in the end, but we’ll take it, right? Onward and upward.

Everything Else

Game #46 – Predators vs. Hawks Preview/Red Point Training: Fully Operational Death Star

By Sam Fels 1781 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Predators 26-15-3   Hawks 16-22-7

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

THIRD MAN HANGERS-ON: On The Forecheck

Not exactly the easiest week for the Hawks. Sunday saw them face the hottest team in the league, a test which they passed. Then they got the Pacific leaders, who let them hang around for two periods before it was swirly time in the third. Tonight it’s one half of the Central’s twin towers, and then Saturday night it’s the defending Western champs who are tied with the team that just held the Hawks at arm’s length on Monday. Boy, the Devils and Rangers can’t get here fast enough!

It’s been a wonky year for the Preds, so the fact that they’re still sitting one point off the Jets, though having played two games more, is a real work by Peter Laviolette. Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, PK Subban, Kyle Turris (still) have all missed serious time, and yet here they are. Unfortunately for the Hawks, all but Turris are back in the lineup and this is just about as close to the full Predators experience as they’ve been since the beginning of the season.

To wit, a team that had won two of 10 road games before Monday went out and promptly destroyed the Leafs in Toronto, winning 4-0 and holding perhaps the biggest arsenal in the league to 18 shots. So yeah, that’s not exactly encouraging for tonight.

The Preds had something of a dip in December, as both Juuse Saros and Ol’Shit Hip fell off their hot pace. Which makes you think it was a structural thing, and it might have been as without Subban you’re only going to get away with playing Dan Hamhuis and his walking stick as a second pairing player for so long. Still, even with that, the Preds are third in the league in shots against overall per game and sixth in scoring-chances against at even-strength. They’re top-10 in both team Corsi-percentage and scoring-chance-percentage. The one area they’re deficient is they’re 18th in high-danger-scoring-chance-percentage, mostly because they don’t create a ton. That is probably a product of not having Arvidsson and Forsberg for a while, because this is a team that has always depended on its top line to do most of the damage. That has been corrected now.

It’s still perhaps the most devastating blue line in the league, with all of Ellis, Josi, and PK among the premier puck-movers in the league (sidenote: Has anyone in recent history racked up a more impressive social resume than Lindsey Vonn? If she were a dude she’d be Tony Stark. Get it, girl). This is clearly their strength.

Also, in four games in January they’ve given up four goals in regulation, with three of those somehow coming to the Red Wings. So yeah, the goalies are probably fine now. Go get ’em, Hawks!

For the Hawks, the question will be tonight where does the returning, conquering hero Henri Jokiharju slot in. The Hawks may have caught a break in that Brent Seabrook is sick, which would give them shelter to keep The HarJu on his normal side, on a shielded third-pairing, and keep the other two pairings together, as they’ve been working. No word on whether Colliton/Bowman spiked Seabrook’s nachos-for-four last night at Four Moons.

That will be for one night, but the Hawks are going to have to answer that question soon enough. The simplest and best solution would be to pair Keith and Seabrook again, but make that your third pairing. Then you can slot the four of Dahlstrom, Murphy, Gustafsson, and HarJu any way you want. You can leave Dahlstrom and Murphy to do the hard work-which they haven’t been as good at of late but it’s the best you’ve got–and let Gustafsson and Jokiharju bumslay a bit. Or you just divide it up evenly with Dalshtrom letting Jokiharju freelance more and Murphy doing the same for Gustafsson and Keith and Seabrook take the rest. This is the easiest and cleanest solution, and hence it’ll be the one the Hawks don’t take.

No word on what goalie is going tonight as it was a pretty informal get-together this morning. You would think it would have to be Delia, but we keep saying that. The other change is John Hayden is in for Chris Kunitz. Contain your excitement, we just mopped.

Not much to say here. The Hawks have played the Preds tough since giving up the first four goals to them in their first meeting in Nashville, and beat them there later. But this is the full Preds death squad minus Turris. And with something to play for. Might want to hide under your seat for this one.

 

Game #46 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built