Game #51 Preview Suite
Notes: Lehner has given up four goals in his last four appearances…Barzal only has one goal since the last time these two met, when he had a brace…Cizikas has been the Eastern version of Marcus Kruger for years, always on a fourth-line but always tasked with taking the hardest assignments. Trotz hasn’t wavered from that…Their Toews has really juiced the third-pairing, and given them a puck-mover on all three pairings…Filppula has been extremely annoying to the Hawks in his entire career, and now that he’s under Trotz he’s Super Annoying…
Notes: After what was his first truly rough outing, it makes sense to get Delia an early start on the bye and break and give Ward the start. Not that you’re ever happy to see Ward in net, but this one makes sense…they’re giving you the hard-press on Caggiula in the top six, even though he was just fine on Sunday…the Saad-Kampf-Kruger line was used as a straight checking unit against Backstrom and Ovechkin and it held its own even if the possession numbers were a little ugly…curious to see if DeBrincat can be the main creator on a line, which is what he’ll be tasked with joining Strome and Kahun…
Game #51 Preview Suite
Notes: Ovie has four goals in his last 15 games…it’s been a rough go for Niskanen and Orlov, who take the toughest assignments but aren’t doing nearly as well with them as they did last year. Those Cup runs sure do take a bite, don’t they?…Kuznetsov has one goal since December 2nd….Oshie has three goals in his last 11. Starting to see how the goddamn Islanders caught them…Wilson is shooting over 21%, in case you made the mistake of thinking he turned into a real player or something. Correction is coming for him…
Notes: Stop trying to make Caggiula happen. It’s not gonna happen…Looks from practice yesterday that Jokiharju will take a seat. He had a rough one in New York, but pairing him with Seabrook on his off-side certainly wasn’t doing him any favors. If Koekkoek was anything the Lightning sure could have used him on what is a underwhelming blue line behind Hedman…Saad had played well the past two games on the top six, so of course he gets demoted to a checking line for Caligula and Kahun…Perlini looks to be taking a seat too for Kunitz, because the world is fucked…
Game #50 Preview Suite
The past season and a half for Hawks fans have been, if not a nightmare, then certainly close enough to study a nightmare’s habits and form. I’m sure every one has their own moment where things have felt like bottom. For me it was last night, because the Hawks actually hit bottom. They are 31st in the league. They just got pumped by one team that’s rebuilding in Newark, and then pretty easily held at arm’s length by another on Broadway. They have the worst goal-difference in the league. It certainly has been a long time since the Hawks were propping up the entire league and deservedly so. And yes, those of you thinking that in the long run this may be a good thing, you may be right. If they could carry this out, land in the top two in the draft, and pry Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko that would be a step forward. If you find relief or salvation in that, I won’t stop you.
You wouldn’t think I could still find any anger after all this, but I can find it anytime, anywhere. So here’s what’s floating around my head.
-Again, to end up bottom, is most every sport these days, you’re supposed to actually plan for that. And if you haven’t planned for that, everyone is fired. The Flyers are down here, and they’ve shitcanned everyone. The Senators are stupid and should fire everyone. The Kings have fired everyone. The Panthers are probably going to fire everyone. The Wings are going to fire everyone to get Steve Yzerman in.
The Hawks did fire a coach, but if I’m taking the Hawks at their word, then how can anyone above Coach Cool Youth Pastor keep their job? They told you this team was supposed to be competitive, and they’re last in the league. There’s no way that any front office that thought this roster could make a run at a playoff spot can be deemed to be competent enough to have any influence on a future NHL team. I kind of have to believe they said different things behind closed doors than they did in front of the press, because it’s the only way to sleep through the night. If this was the belief both privately and publicly, then everyone goes.
I know what they’ll do. You know what they’ll do. They’ll hide behind the fig leaf of Corey Crawford being hurt again, and wonky when he was healthy. But don’t buy it. Let’s play it out. Let’s say that Crawford was going .925 (which would be Vezina-worthy in this year’s environment) in his starts and the starts that had to go to Delia (because Delia wouldn’t be here if Crow were healthy). That would be 15 less goals the Hawks gave up. It’s elementary and coarse, but with no other goals scored that’s still a -23 GD. Sure, score effects probably change things but how much better would that GD really be? How much higher in the standings would they be? Five points? I guess that’s touching distance to a playoff spot. Would that be just because the sludge that the Central turned into behind Nashville and Winnipeg? And five points is an awfully ambitious estimate. It’s probably closer to three and you’re still nowhere.
-We’ve been over this and over this, but this was a GM who basically has said and wants you to think he sabotaged the blue line simply to stick it to a coach he wanted to fire over the summer anyway. He put Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta on this team because “they were Q-type players”, or so he thought, and the fact that they sucked was Q’s fault, according to Stan. This team probably isn’t much better if Dahlstrom starts the year here, though maybe a little if Murphy was healthy all season. Where else would anyone get away with this? In a league getting faster and faster all the time, Stan Bowman inserted two road cones on defense simply to put a middle finger up to his coach. That’s not just fireable, that’s catapult-able. That’s a broken organization that’s too arrogant to realize it. And that arrogance is built off success they were almost entirely, indirectly involved in. Again, they draw their esteem from being born on third.
-I want to believe in Jeremy Colliton, and I do honestly think he should be given a run with a real roster next season. I would like the Hawks, or any team really, getting rewarded for going outside the box. That’s assuming the veterans haven’t already given up on him, because they’re all going to be here next year and you’d need a buy-in from them otherwise the young players aren’t going to either. But there’s no evidence that anything has improved. The only thing different is that he’s not lashing Connor Murphy with birchwood between periods for who he isn’t like Q was last year.
Yes, this team isn’t built to play the system he apparently wants. To pull off this man-system in the defensive zone, you have to be oozing speed to pressure any puck carrier all the time. There can’t be any time to breathe. The Hawks aren’t that, and are far from that. So…why wouldn’t you tailor a system to the team you have, not the one you wish to have?
Every metric has gotten worse under Colliton. Their only salvation has been a power play that has clicked (which he does credit for) and Collin Delia (which he doesn’t). The penalty kill still sucks out loud. They still take three or four passes to get out of the zone when it should be one or two or even none. Duncan Keith rarely cares. He can yell at Erik Gustafsson all he wants but that’s not getting any better defensively. Henri Jokiharju has yet to flash. Do we want this guy at the controls when Adam Boqvist is here?
-Speaking of Jokiharju, let me be clear: I don’t think he’s a bust or anything close. But the more I watch him, the more he seems a high floor guy than a high ceiling one. He’s not that fast. He’s been buried with partners and assignments that don’t let him show off what he can do on the offensive side of the ice, but we haven’t seen any of it anywhere. And he can’t be what the Hawks need him to be if he’s not that quick. He’s smooth, but that’s not the same thing. Boqvist and Mitchell are both right-handed as well, so how’s that going to shake out?
If Colliton is taking orders from above, then “above” has to find a way to give Jokiharju a steady partner so we can see what we have here. There’s only one, and that’s Murphy. Flip him to the left side, which he did plenty last year, and let’s see what HarJu can do with some shackles off. Otherwise, what are we doing?
Ok, I got it all out. We’ll come back to this next week.
There’s really no denying it after this game: the Hawks are definitively the league’s bottom feeders. Yes, the Kings technically have fewer points (by one) but they also have two games in hand on the Hawks. Don’t kid yourself–they’re awful. Let’s just get to it:
– The Hawks played well for about the first four minutes of the game. After that, it was pretty much straight downhill. By the time that Brandon Saad scored the first goal on the power play around five minutes in, the Hawks had been dominating possession and showed good speed. That power play came just as they were losing their grip on things, and Saad took advantage of Henrik Lundqvist being too twitchy and leaving a wide open goal. But it was all Rangers after that, and even though the Hawks finished that period leading in possession (58.6 CF%), they still gave up goals to both Chytil and Zuccarello, and managed to be losing at the end of the period despite leading not only in possession but shots too.
– Did I mention it got worse after that? In the second period the Hawks were basically useless, with the low point coming when Duncan Keith carelessly handled a shitty pass from Saad, and moved the puck not away from the goal, not into the corner or to the boards, but directly into the middle of the slot where Chris Kreider calmly scored point blank on Delia. It was equal parts lazy and stupid. Technically the goal was unassisted—if only that were true. Keith should have had the primary assist on that one.
– In general it was a rough night for the defense (SHOCKING). Keith’s fuck-up was the worst example, but the Gustafsson-Jokiharju pairing had its problems too. They ended above water in possession but in the first period Gustafsson got squashed like a bug and with the resulting turnover, Filip Chytil de-pantsed Jokiharju for the first goal. Joker was on his off side at that point, basically out of necessity, but that should say something to Coach Cool Youth Pastor next time he thinks about flipping Jokiharju as he did when he paired him with Nachos the other night. Murphy and Dahlstrom were also chasing and watching as Zuccarello scored a few minutes later. It was team effort to suck tonight.
– On that note, Jonathan Toews took a leadership role at sucking. He had a wide open net at the end of the third when they had the extra attacker out, could have tied the game, and didn’t even hit the net. It made Kahun’s literal last-second goal even more painful since it would have been a game-winner.
– They got two more power play goals tonight, so yes it’s a relief that’s still happening. But unfortunately the movement wasn’t what we’ve been seeing lately, and had the Hawks been playing a good team, they probably wouldn’t have scored at least one of those goals.
– After coming out of the first period behind, and losing whatever momentum or give-a-shit-ness that they had, the Hawks were basically out of fucks to give entirely. They were bad in the second period but even worse in the third, managing only six shots and a 40 CF%. In a way I can’t blame them because it’s demoralizing to suck all the time. But even when they’ve sucked before they’ve at least been entertaining (the Flames game, the Predators game). Getting beat by a fellow crap team really took it out of them I guess.
There are 33 games left to go guys…wow, that sounds depressing when I say it out loud. Fortunately just a couple more until the All-Star break? Onward and upward?
Photo credit: Chicago Tribune
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 16-23-9 Rangers 19-20-7
PUCK DROP: 6pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago, NBCSN for the non-locals because NBC hates hockey
HEY I’M HOCKEYIN’ OVAH HERE!: Blueshirt Banter
So I’d get all “Harf Harf Harf!” about Original Six bullshit, except not even the people who would peddle that are going to be able to dress up a game between two of the league’s worst teams. Possibly the two worst teams. Like, seriously. The Hawks are 30th in the league and the Kings have a game in hand on them at the bottom. What makes it even funnier is that the Rangers are above them, and they planned to be here. The Hawks didn’t and are somehow doing it better. Or worse, depending on your point of view.
Anyway, the Rangers are sure to get worse after their deadline sell-off as they go through the rebuild we only wish the Hawks were capable of. Kevin Hayes is a goner, Mats Zuccarello won’t be too far behind, Chris Kreider is probably what would bring most back, if anyone will take Adam McQuaid and the only skill he has of having an angry face he’ll go too. Soon enough Dylan Strome’s brother could find himself on an NHL top line. That’s how you tank it right, folks!
The Rangers aren’t last in their division because the Devils tried the unique tack of not having a goalie all season and the Flyers being more Flyers than anyone could have possibly imagined. Because there’s nothing the Rangers are good at. They’re a stank possession team, ranking second-worst in team Corsi-percentage. They’re seventh-worst in xGF%. They give up the second-most attempts per game, and the fourth-most scoring chances. They’re shit-assed when it comes to high-danger chances against, too. They also create next to nothing, as they’re worst in attempts-for or shots-for per game at evens. This is the definition of a nothing team, as it should be when it’s in Year One of a rebuild. Whoever is going to matter when this team matters again probably isn’t here yet, aside from Filip Chytil and maybe Brett Howden. We’ll be nice and throw Ryan Lindgren on the defense on the list as well, and he’ll be playing his second NHL game tonight.
The big question that hangs over the Rangers like a noxious cloud is Henrik Lundqvist. Firstly, because he really isn’t that good any more. Secondly, because it would be hard to be good behind this team. Thirdly, because the Rangers could probably get some team to pony up to try and take him on one last run for a Cup. But King has shown on interest in leaving New York, so he and the Rangers have to be content to sit and watch each other crumble down into nothingness. Awfully handsome nothingness, though.
For the Hawks, a little news. Collin Delia will start, which…duh. Apparently Drake Caggiula is going to get a look with Kane and Strome, as the Hawks try to convince either us or themselves (it’s themselves) that Caggiula is anything but a foot soldier. He isn’t. Expect Saad back here by the second period. Or they’re trying to drive Kane to ask for a trade by playing him with bigger and bigger clods until the deadline until he just gives up. Cunning ploy that would be, but this organization isn’t capable of anything that clever.
I can’t dress this one up for you. It’s two garbage teams hurling themselves at each other for 60 minutes because the schedule says they have to. Enjoy it on whatever level works for you.
Game #49 Preview Suite
Notes: Little bit of intrigue at the morning skate as Delia was first off the ice but Ward was in the starter’s net. There would be utterly no reason to play Ward unless the full tank was on, which is what some want? We’re not sure anymore…The Hawks have tried seven d-men twice in the last two years. Both against the Devils, and they gave up 15 goals combined. It just can’t be that confusing. Anyway, expect Koekkoek to be back in his suit tonight…other than that it’s window dressing. Kampf will be on a wing for some reason…Encouraging thing is even though they got stomped, Saad gave Kane’s line better possession numbers, because he’s actually quick and gets the puck back, unlike Anisimov…
Notes: Could be a couple returnees for the Rangers. Hayes could slot back in at #2 center, McQuaid might get back in somewhere on the blue line…Kreider has one goal in his last nine games, as he seeks safe haven outside of whatever the hell it is the Rangers are doing…Zibanejad went off for four points against the Hurricanes last game…Buchnevich had two goals on the power play against the Canes as well…Lundqvist gave up two goals on Tuesday, only the third time in his last 14 starts he’s held a team under three…
Game #49 Preview Suite
I’ll admit we’ve done something of a bridge-pose, if not an outright wheel, trying to justify our Connor Murphy affection. We didn’t think trading Niklas Hjalmarsson before he became…well, Brent Seabrook, was a bad idea. It’s actually the kind of thing the Hawks probably should have done more of. Except the only other time they did it, giving up on Brandon Saad the first time, only netted them Artem Anisimov. But just because you didn’t execute a good idea properly doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good idea. And Hjalmarsson got them Murphy, and let’s just say that he has yet to convince all Hawks fans it was worth it. It also doesn’t help that Hammer continues to play well in Arizona, as you’ll soon see.
While I remain a metrics-heavy analyst, one of my main problems is that no one, as far as I can tell, has weighted the rates or possession-numbers to account for where a shift starts and whom against. We have it adjusted for score of the game, time, and venue, but not for the individual shifts. So one person’s 52% share might be awfully different than another’s. For example, Duncan Keith‘s metrics, a 50.1 CF% aren’t horribly out of line with what he used to put up, but 60% of his shifts starting in the offensive zone is. So you have to account for that.
So with Murphy, we have some unique circumstances. First off, only Patrik Nemeth of the Avalanche starts less shifts in the offensive zone than Murphy does, at 27%. That accounts for shifts that start on faceoffs and on-the-fly. If you go by simply faceoffs, Murphy has the fifth-lowest percentage in the offensive zone. So either way it’s obvious to see he’s being buried in the dungeon by place on the ice when he gets on the ice. .
The names around him are the aforementioned Nemeth, Hjalmarsson, his partner Dahlstrom, Andy Greene, Roman Polak, Ben Lovejoy (and those two names are going to make you shudder so hard your chiropractor will be rubbing his/her hands), Damon Severson, Alex Edler, Andrew MacDonald. Among those bottom-10, as it were, Murphy’s 45.1 CF% is about average. The outliers are, of course, Hjalmarsson and Andrew MacDonald (what?). So he’s not standout but he’s not dragging behind.
Of course, on this list, that doesn’t cover it. Most all of these guys are third-pairing players not playing the competition that Murphy is. Greene and Severson are an exception, and so is Hjalmarsson. However, Hammer is paired with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, whereas Murphy gets Dahlstrom and his 80s hair. That was cool for like 10 games. It has not been lately, and very much so.
On the scoring-chance side, it’s a little less encouraging. On that list of those who are buried, Murphy’s 45.3% mark is on the lower side, though hardly the lowest. Again, Hjalmarsson stands out at above water and significantly so, as does Nemeth’s 52%. Though one wonders in a Dahlstrom-Murphy pairing that’s either been mostly behind a defensively declining Toews or David Kampf, who exactly is going to create chances. But here we are.
It’s hard to get a read on, and Murphy hasn’t been bad, but it’s hard to conclude he hasn’t been behind his counterpart in that trade that forever broke the Quenneville-Bowman relationship. Last year, Murphy’s metrics were actually really good with Brent Seabrook, other-worldy with Michal Kempny (fucking fuckin’ fuck!), and pretty good with Erik Gustafsson as well. In each case, he was getting at least double the offensive-zone starts than he is this year, though, and in two of those examples he was partnered with at least an offensively capable/mobile partner. I’m not convinced Dahlstrom is either. But we also know it did not go so well with Duncan Keith, where the competition kicked up. But was that Murphy or Keith? It seems impossible to tell.
It would behoove the Hawks to get Murphy a real partner for the rest of the year, and one who has hope of getting the Hawks up the ice at any point. Jokiharju is the first name that comes to mind, but would you be doing him any favors to almost never start him in the offensive zone? Big ask. Gustafsson is not equipped to handle that zone-start task or the competition. And that’s basically it. And until Murphy gets someone like that as a partner, it’s going to be hard to tell what the Hawks have here.
