Chicago Blackhawks – Page 33 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

Everything Else

Game #72 – Canucks vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels March 18, 2019 1463 0

Notes: Not only did the Canucks play last night, and not only are they bad, but they’re beat up. Ben Hutton, Brandon Sutter, Antoine Roussel, and Chris Tanev are done for the season, and Ryan Spooner is pretty close to that. This wasn’t a team that was screaming with depth before, so you can see why their half-assed playoff chase is falling by the wayside…Pettersson has cooled off a bit, with “only” 15 points in the last 21 games, but he wasn’t going to shoot over 20% forever…His linemate Boeser is under no such streaks though, as he has points in his last six and has been a problem for the Hawks in the past…Virtanen has two goals in 2019, so that’s working out well…Remember kids, if Luke Schenn is on your blue line, then it probably sucks…

Notes: Wouldn’t expect any changes here. Koekkoek came in for Dahlstrom on Saturday and the Hawks gave up 48 shots to a mediocre team, so he probably gets back in to try and help Murphy. Either for Forsling or Koekkoek, it doesn’t matter…Perlini was named second star of the week by the NHL, and why wouldn’t he be? Don’t buy in yet, he still smacks of a third line weapon, but at least he’s being used on the PK where he has a chance to do some real damage too. They need all the speed they can get on that unit…If Colliton had any balls they’d call up Jokiharju has have him replace Seabrook, but we won’t hop on one foot waiting for that to happen…

Game #72 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #71 – Hawks vs. Canadiens Preview/Five-A-Side: High Speed Dirt

By Sam Fels March 16, 2019 1731 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 31-30-9 Canadiens 37-27-7

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: WGN

WELL WE’RE NOT GONNA, WE’RE GONNA HAVE A SANDWICH: Habs Eyes On The Prize

Two teams scrapping desperately for playoff spots will meet up on Hockey Night In Canada in Montreal tonight. Which sounds weird given there’s a 10-point difference between the two. But that’s the tale of East and West this year. We don’t make the rules.

Though they’re hardly the best team in the East you can find, there are not too many teams the Hawks should want to see less after their attempted 3rd period sepuku against the Leafs on Wednesday. That’s because the Habs are one of the faster teams around, with four lines of nippy forwards whose only aim is to get up the ice as quickly and efficiently as possible. They’re one of the best possession teams in the league, and are probably a premier sniper away from being much higher in the standings. Seeing as how the Hawks are slow and don’t possess the puck, it’s not really the best matchup at all. You saw what happened when a fast team really gets going against the Hawks last out. They’re still picking up parts of the Hawks off the Toronto ice and trying to identify it through dental records.

But still the Habs are clinging on in the East and the Atlantic. If the music were to stop today, Les Habitants would not have a chair and would have to sit over there with a juice box. They’re two points behind both the Jackets and Hurricanes for the wildcard spots, and the Canes have a game in hand as well. It would be a second-straight season of no playoffs and third in four, which for an organization that thinks of itself as the center of the hockey world, if not universe entirely, would be unacceptable. So how did we get here?

Hard to figure. The big, glaring, pulsing rash is that the Canadiens have a power play that looks like what the Hawks’ used to looked like. It’s dead last in the league, connecting at a 12% rate. Pretty much everywhere else the Habs are at least middle of the pack, if not better, but because they can’t get easier goals they’re having to win every game at even-strength. And that’s hard to do when you’re merely functional everywhere else and not buoyant. It basically leaves you with the good record Montreal has, but in the East that’s only enough to hope to squeeze in.

Up and down the lineup you’ll see players slotted just a touch higher than they should be. Brendan Gallagher and Max Domi have been the most dynamic, but they’re both probably second-line players on a really good team. Only one of them is here. Phillip Danault causes cartoon hearts to float out of our chest, but he’s a #3 and not a #2. Tomas Tatar shouldn’t be on a top-six of a team that means to do anything meaningful, as Red Wings fans can attest. It’s a team that is just short pretty much everywhere.

And Carey Price is also functional-to-good, though not at the moment the galactic being he used to be. A .915 SV% is nothing to sneeze at these days, but doesn’t put him amongst the league leaders, which used to be his hood. He’s also had to play more than the Canadiens would have liked, because–and stop me if you’ve heard this before–Antti Niemi as the backup has been a gas leak. He’s had one start in the past month, and you’d have to imagine they’re going to have to ride Price now to 65+ starts which can’t ever have been the plan.

That doesn’t mean they can’t be a headache on a given night, especially for a leaden-footed defense like the Hawks. The Bleu, Blanc, and Rouge have gotten on the popular train and now let their forwards streak up the ice, trying to get up into and around the opposing defense before the forwards can help out. The Hawks really struggle with this, so they’ll have to be as clean as possible tonight. That means no turnovers at either line, and busting it back. If the Hawks can keep the puck for any period of time, the Habs defense isn’t anything that would cause a sonnet to be written, and Price isn’t the set of iron bars he used to be. But open up a sliver to this team and they can turn it into a wound pretty quickly. And then Max Domi is smiling or Andrew Shaw is screaming or Brendan Gallagher is yapping and you’ll want to throw your shoe through the TV.

For the Hawks, wouldn’t expect any changes. Crawford is healthy and continent, so that’s three periods he gets to play. He usually plays pretty damn well back home in Montreal, and the Hawks will likely need it.

The Hawks already got a bonus two points out of this Canadian swing. But that doesn’t matter if you don’t get at least one, and really both, of the points out of here that you would have been aiming for before it began. There’s a long way to go, but it is possible as the Canucks and Flyers at home are next and then a home-and-home with a direct competitor in Colorado. It’s all in front of the Hawks for the next week. It’ll take almost all of the points there, if not all, but that’s the path they’ve chosen. If they’re serious about this, they’ll need every last drop before that last week gauntlet of Winnipeg, St. Louis, Dallas, and Nashville. These are two they probably need to get.

Game #71 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #71 – Hawks vs. Canadiens: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels March 16, 2019 1263 0

Game #71 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #71 – Hawks vs. Canadiens: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels March 16, 2019 1365 0

Notes: Crawford seems to have gotten over the shits, so he’s back in tonight…It was a rough one for the fourth line when the Leafs got going, as they were charged with trying to keep Auston Matthews on a leash. You know how it went…Could see Hayden back in, but as this is probably Kunitz’s last visit to Montreal and that probably means something, don’t count on it…Toews against Kotkaniemi ought to be an interesting watch, which should also free up Strome…

Notes: The bottom-six is kind of a guess, and Julien tends to mix and match them as we go along…Since Price gave up eight to the Ducks he’s only surrendered three on 59 shots in two games, though that was New Jersey and Detroit…Drouin hasn’t scored since February 7th…Petry and Kulak are where most of the offense comes from…Whatever Kotkaniemi doesn’t take Danault will, and Strome can probably expect him up his ass all night…

Game #71 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Weak-Ass Jokiharju Thinking, Ian Mitchell, And The Jam To Address

By Sam Fels March 15, 2019 1960 0

I think we can all agree, which sadly the organization won’t, that if you’re a team that has given up two of the eight 30-shot periods in NHL HISTORY, your blue line probably needs rebuilding from scratch. Blow it all up, start over, you lost. Maybe you can pick through the scraps and keep one or two pieces after you clear the soot, but you have the longest possible distance to go to form a credible or representative NHL blue line than anyone right now, and maybe fewer in history have either.

Let’s use a rough measure. According to evolved-hockey.com, the Hawks 2.9 expected goals-against at even strength per 60 minutes is the worst mark in the analytic era, which goes back to 2008. That’s 11 seasons, and no one’s done worse. Their 3.34 xGA/60 in all situations is also worst in 11 years. No team that we’ve been able to measure this way has been worse defensively than the Hawks, at least when it comes to the amount and types of chances they’re surrendering. So while you may hear, “THIS IS THE WORST DEFENSE I’VE EVER SEEN!” a lot from a lot of people who can’t find their own ass with both hands as they spill a Miller Lite on you, in this case it’s actually true.

Which is probably why the Hawks have been pushing their Four Horsemen Of The Defensive Prospects Apocalypse (we’ll come up with a better name, I promise) all season. They have to sell you on something, and they have to try and convince literally anyone they have any idea how to build a defense after foisting this upon you for a season (and really two seasons). Everything will be all right when they get here, is what they’re telling you. We know what we’re doing, just wait and see.

Well, one of them already was here, and that’s Henri Jokiharju. He’s currently in Rockford, playing on their top pairing, got 12 points in 15 games and everyone pretty much agrees he looks good there. And as we’ve said before, it’s not Jokiharju’s fault that the Hawks have built a defense where a 19-year-old kid who needs seasoning is also one of their three best d-men. If you have any arguments about that, Duncan Keith, I’ll point you to Wednesday’s turnover and then politely ask you to wait in the corner and think about what you’ve done.

Here’s the thing I’ve been wrestling with in the past few days, though: If the reasoning, or part of it, for sending The HarJu down was so that he could be part of a playoff push and play games with something on the line, then shouldn’t he be here now? The Hawks keep telling you they’re in it, and whether we like it or not a win tomorrow combined with a Coyotes loss (playing the Oilers so don’t count on it) pulls them within four points with a game in hand. And they still go to Arizona yet. So, no matter how loosely, they’re “in” it.

So what is it? If you’re saying these games matter and you’re trying to win, and at this point your draft pick is borked anyway, then you should be icing your best team. You wouldn’t put Jokiharju’s long-term development over what’s here in front of you. And if making the first round and then getting turned to plasma by the Sharks is really a worthy goal to your veterans, how exactly do you sell them on Jokiharju not being here? They’re not blind, they know the defense sucks, and they know that #28 is better than at least three guys you’re icing every night.

Flip Murphy to the left side, put Jokharju with him, and be done with it. Or, better yet, strap a feedbag to Seabrook, let him loose in some parking lot in Bucktown, and come back for him sometime in April, and let Jokiharju get some sheltered shifts on a third-pairing. Otherwise, you’re full of shit.

But we already knew that.

-Speaking of which, Scott Powers was on his travels again, speaking to Ian Mitchell in Denver (and if you’re upset you didn’t get to hang out with Mr. Powers in Denver, join the club). The main gist here is that Mitchell doesn’t know how the rumors of him not signing got started, and he at least hints at saying he’ll come to the Hawks soon without actually suggesting when. So fine, let’s say the Hawks will get their wish and Mitchell signs whenever Denver bites it in the postseason (and it had better be this one, because if he stays for a junior year there’s really no reason to not stay for a senior and then he can have his pick).

As we’ve said countless times, the Hawks have big decisions to make. And soon. Jokiharju, Mitchell, and Boqvist are all right-handed and all will not fit on the roster together. One, if not two, are going to have to be used this summer to get the other things the Hawks need.

While Boqvist might be a project, he also promises generational offensive talent from the back end (which to me means he should be up next year pushing the play and you just live with the defensive problems, but we’ve had that talk). Mitchell sounds like a diet version of that, and his uncertain signing status makes moving him tricky. And his value wouldn’t be all that high. You also wouldn’t sign him and then immediately trade him, not that he has any say over that. It’s a bad look and would make future draft picks a little hesitant. Which leaves moving Jokiharju. Which is yet another reason he should be up, unless the Hawks have concluded that will hurt his trade value, which means…great work here.

The Hawks record of moving prospects or younger players for actual value isn’t great. The Teuvo wound won’t ever heal, and you could see where any of these guys are sweeteners to say, get Anisimov’s contract off the books. Danault brought nothing back, and Hinostroza brought back cap space yet to be used. Ryan Hartman got you a lottery ticket in Nicolas Beaudin and an apparently dead EggShell. The Schmaltz deal looks to be the only recent winner.

So while the Hawks have decisions to make, you’ll forgive me if I’m a little tense about the one they make.

Everything Else

Let’s Wheel Pose On Brandon Saad

By Sam Fels March 15, 2019 2293 0

It’s a phrase I’ve come to use a lot, because it sums up nicely when a person is doing all sorts of things to justify an opinion or sell something, as well as the fact I’m getting old and my brain basically has room for six phrases now. Anyway, this post isn’t to argue that the Hawks “won” the second Brandon Saad trade, just like I wouldn’t argue they “won” the first one either. Going back to “what you know” has cost the Hawks at various points over the last seven years or so, and while selling high on Artemi Panarin was not the worst idea (doing it to put your middle finger up to your coach probably isn’t the best justification though), the Hawks probably could have done better. Should have done better.

That doesn’t mean we don’t still love Brandon Saad, because we do. And that doesn’t mean Brandon Saad isn’t a very good player, because he is. It also might mean this trade isn’t quite as lopsided as you might think, at least for this year. Yes, we’re tossing Saad’s completely snake-bitten previous campaign, when he was good as well but just couldn’t get any puck into the net. We can do that because it’s our playground and we make the rules.

So anyway, on Twitter I’ve occasionally made the joke that Saad’s 23 goals are only two behind Panarin’s 25 because it’s fun to do so. Obviously, Saad is nowhere near Panarin’s 49 assists and at no point in his career will he be. He’s not a playmaker, nor was he brought here to be, and he’ll never get to 30 assists in a season, much less 45+. That’s just the way things are. The Hawks have playmakers, so whatever.

As you’ve probably guessed, we’ll look at this metrically. Even metrically, Panarin is beyond Saad. Overall, their Corsi% is 54.6 for Panarin and 53.9 for Saad. Their expected goals percentage is 55.0% for Panarin, and 46.8% for Saad, who clearly is suffering at least a little from the historically bad defense behind him.

But the curious thing here is that there isn’t a player in the league who starts more shifts in the offensive zone than Panarin. Which is weird, because when he was here one of the things Q loved about him was his attention to detail in the defensive zone. Either he has stopped caring, or John Tortorella is being unreasonable (unheard of, I know), but 81% of Panarin’s shifts start in the offensive zone. Now, most top line players will start a majority of shifts there, because that’s where you want them. But 81% is excessive. Meanwhile, Saad starts almost exactly half his shifts there at 51%.

Now, even amongst the most sheltered, Panarin’s relative-stats still are clearly above the rest. He’s +6 in relative Corsi per 60 and +8 in relative-scoring chances, and no one else in the top-10 in offensive zone starts is anywhere near that. Which stands to reason, because if you keep a player like Panarin exclusively in the offensive zone, he’s likely to stay there and make things happen.

Still, if you look around Saad’s neighborhood of zone starts (he’s 303rd, so the 10 spots ahead and the 10 spots below), there are only two players doing his level of work in relative-Corsi. And they’re Ryan Getzlaf (what?) and William Karlsson. In relative scoring chance percentage, only Jakub Voracek, Getzlaf, and Jonathan Huberdeau are outdoing Saad’s +2.48 per 60. Those are nice names for the most part, and suggest that Saad and his linemates are turning the ice over at a higher rate than most of those asked to do it as much. Whereas Panarin already has the ice tilted for him.

Now, I couldn’t begin to tell you what Saad’s numbers would look like if he started 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone. They wouldn’t be Panarin’s numbers, but they would be more than he’s put up. I also can’t tell you what his numbers would look like if he had more than one d-man behind him who was of a higher quality than NHL third-pairing, but why don’t we just steal Seth Jones and find out? For funsies?

Again, would never argue that the Hawks won this trade or all that close. It’s just closer than you might think, and also might look better when Panarin cashes in for $11M per year from the Rangers in the summer. I mean, if Mark Stone is making $9.5M…

Everything Else

The Awkwardness Of Duncan Keith

By Sam Fels March 14, 2019 2453 0

I suppose this is just going to be a normal thing, especially when the Hawks infiltrate Canada and Toronto specifically. But it was Duncan Keith’s turn to get the puff piece treatment, this time from Pierre LeBrun.

It would be extremely hard to believe, and to convince me, that this was Keith’s idea. Keith hates, hates, hates talking to the media, and pretty much hates everything that goes along with playing hockey except for the playing hockey part. It was LeBrun who first reported that the Hawks would go to Keith around the deadline to gauge whether he wanted to stay or go. So it makes sense the LeBrun would write the follow-up, which appears to be the opposite. Still, it’s hard to square some of what’s in here to what we saw last night, over the past few weeks, and over the whole season.

And some of this is weird:

“Last year it was a little bit hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Keith said Wednesday after the morning skate. “This year there’s been a lot more positives. We’re in a playoff race right now. That’s exciting hockey for us right now. There’s been young guys that have taken steps this year and that’s a good thing. We need that around here.”

I mean, ok, but this is Keith who’s saying this. The same Keith who hasn’t hesitated to point out to the local media just how shit he thinks his team has been at points. That includes last week when he directly countered his coach to oppose the view that the Hawks had played well against Colorado and Dallas, two games they lost that pretty much ended their playoff hopes. So it’s hard to align, and it almost sounds like Keith playing the hits a bit to try ingratiate himself back with the front office. I don’t know that’s what it is, that’s just the feeling I get.

What I did nod my head in agreement with was Stan Bowman’s assertion that they would go to the four-five core players of yore and lay out their plan. I agree with this, and most do. They’ve earned the right, and they’ve all earned the right to opt-in or out. I feel like the conversation will sound different to Brent Seabrook than it will to Patrick Kane, but let’s run that kitten over when we get to it.

Of course, I also snicker when Bowman says, “They have a plan different from other organizations,” because A. his boss just said there’s no plan, but a process, and B. trying to make yourself sound smarter than other teams when you’re still out of the playoffs sounds like you’ve been huffing your own ass for too long. Which is a problem this organization has had for a while now.

“I feel we’ve made some good strides this year,” said Keith. “I still feel like there’s a lot of good things going on in Chicago. At the end of the day, there’s not a lot of teams that you really look at and think, ‘OK, they’re that much better than this team.’ So, I like it in Chicago, I like the group, I know we have to be better, but I’d like to be part of that.”

Again, this is contrary to the things Keith has let slip after games, which he’s either trying to walk back through a national guy or have it both ways. I’m not sure. But at the end of the day, here’s what I can’t get past:

That turnover. Yes, it’s incredibly stupid and petty to get worked up about one turnover in a season of 82 games. It’s probably even sillier to attach deeper meaning to it, and yet I can’t help it.

He was under no pressure. He knows better, and it’s not the kind of mistake that Keith has made most of the year. This one reeks of carelessness. This just reeks of someone who couldn’t be bothered. Maybe it was frustration that the Hawks had already given up three of a five-goal lead, and were under the kosh. Maybe he was frustrated it got to this point at all, and just let it out. And even if we grant him that, that’s the kind of thing Duncan Keith isn’t supposed to fall in for. He’s supposed to be above that and show his younger and less heralded teammates the better way.

This isn’t a player who had no choice, like Seabrook’s turnover mere seconds later. He’s slow and simply can’t get away from forecheckers or open up time for himself to make a pass. Keith can, and has, and should have. He just didn’t.

But like a lot of times this year, it just looks like Keith wasn’t as engaged. This is lazy, along with stupid. At best it’s totally flustered, which is exactly what Keith isn’t supposed to be. It’s basically what he’s never been until this season, or last season at worst.

So Keith’s claims that he likes what is going on here and wants to be a part of it is belied but what we see on the ice. It’s more than this one turnover. That one turnover just encapsulates everything we’ve seen this year. The two messages don’t square up. More often than not Keith has played like someone who doesn’t believe in what’s going on here, that maybe has thought about his future elsewhere, that either believes the changes made were mistakes, more changes need to be made, or both.

If Keith genuinely does want to be here, he’ll have to do a couple things. He’ll have to accept a new role, which he at least seems open to. He’ll have to accept what he can and can’t do anymore, which he’s been more reluctant to do. And he’ll also have to be focused and engaged for all 82, which he clearly has not been at all times this season.

The words are nice. They just don’t line up with what we see on the ice, which is the more important part.

Everything Else

Game #70 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Preview/Cake Or Death: Now’s Probably Not The Time

By Sam Fels March 13, 2019 1773 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 30-30-9 42-22-5

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN

THE ABYSS: Pension Plan Puppets

During the Hawks first “streak,” it was obvious they were benefitting from a softening of the schedule. Even when they played barely real teams, they were simply outclassed. We don’t know if this is a new “streak” yet, three in a row hardly constitutes that, but whatever it is is unlikely to continue tonight. The Hawks are playing one of the few REAL-ASS teams in the league, and we know how that’s gone. And they’re facing one that’s probably going to have an edge/snarl to it.

The Leafs had something of a “test” on Monday, and they got absolutely horsed by the Lightning at home, 6-2. If they had won that game or even been close, you might be hopeful of catching them with their focus elsewhere. Probably no such luck tonight. Maybe if the Bruins had beaten the Jackets last night and moved six points ahead of the Leafs, they would have decided there’s nothing left to play for and would have spent the last 13 games looking at their watch. But with a four-point gap and a game in hand, the Leafs can reasonably think that home-ice is still on the table and worth chasing (which is debatable). So the combination of frustration and motivation should have the Leafs antennae up, which is hardly good news.

There’s also the small matter of Morgan Rielly, which shouldn’t matter but will in the sense that he will get a standing ovation from the frothing, rich aristocracy that fills the Whatever It’s Fucking Called Now Center, because…he might…not have…used a homophobic slur? They won’t know why, they’ll just clap like the trained seals all fans become in situations like this. Either way, he and the Leafs will be happy to have a game to play to distract from whatever the last two days were. All of this does not add up to a pleasant night for the Hawks.

And even without all that, this is a team so far beyond the Hawks you wouldn’t want to drive it. In games against the league’s penthouse residents, the Hawks have generally been embarrassed. The Lightning have dribbled their head like a basketball twice. So have the Sharks. The Jets took them seriously for like a combined 12 minutes and got three wins out of it. They were with the Bruins in South Bend when the Bs were in their worst stretch, and then nowhere close in Boston. They’re 0-3 against the Flames. It’s not an enviable record.

And though they may finish third in their division. and though their media and fans refuse to shut up about anything, this is still an unholy offensive force. John Tavares has 76 points, and he’s the second center. There are three lines here better than the Hawks can muster with one, and when they get rolling no one can live with it (except Tampa, apparently). The Hawks were able to put up six on this team in the home opener because they got a look at Garret Sparks. They’ll find no such refuge here. The Leafs will want a recovery from Monday, which means Andersen, who’s been one of the better goalies in the league.

If the Leafs have a weakness it’s a defense that still is short, even with Jake Muzzin, but you have to get the puck first which is the real trick. Sure, if the Hawks can get DeBrincat or Kane or Saad or Toews bearing down on Hainsey or Zaitsev or whoever they might find some joy, but getting to those spots takes more than a smile. It’s also a beat-up blue line as both Gardiner and Dermott are out.

For the Hawks, shouldn’t be too many changes. Crawford will start, and the lines should look the same (go pound, John Hayden). The expectations for this one should be nil. If the Hawks can get a win in Montreal against a Canadiens team fighting it, this trip will be a success. After that, it’s the Canucks, Flyers, and a home-and-home with the Avs. Basically it would be set for the Hawks to perform one last death rattle if they get out of Canada alive.

And if not, they are who we through they were anyway.

Game #70 Preview Suite