Hockey

Game #37 – Hawks 5, Avs 3: Ain’t It Fun?

By Sam Fels 1931 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Your delayed recap! And it’s for a win! And a fun one! Let’s not wait around, shall we?

The Two Obs

-There’s been a tenet around here for the entire time we’ve been doing this. Which makes it mesmerizing, and a little sobering, that it’s still true after all these years. But…when Duncan Keith is good, the Hawks are good. It’s really been that simple. Toews and Kane steal the headlines, which Keith is only too pleased to let them do, and they certainly are a large part of it. But no player has been a bigger barometer to the Hawks’ fortunes, nor more responsible. He can’t do it every game at 36, and that’s not on him that the Hawks haven’t found another solution. But on the nights he can, the Hawks actually look like a representative team.

Keith was everywhere last night, in a good way, in the way that it used to be. And he did it nursing along Adam Boqvist (more on him in a sec) and behind this still very fractured lineup. He didn’t end up on the scoresheet, but his influence would have been hard to miss. It even included kicking off the Hawks’ “hit or die” attitude on the night. The broadcast wanted you to think it was Gilbert’s fight. No, it was Keith laying Donskoi on his ass that everyone followed. It’s not a huge part of his game, but sometimes you forget that Keith is still about as sturdy as a fire hydrant and has that in his locker when needed.

We haven’t seen this Keith much over the past couple seasons, Some of it is age, some of it is thinking the coach is a moron and the team is headed in the wrong direction. He still thinks the coach is an idiot, and the team is still headed in the wrong direction, and he’s still old, but maybe through just professional pride or wanting to help the young players or whatever, we’re seeing this Keith more often. We should enjoy it. How much longer will it be around?

-The other tenet is “names on the sheet.” When the scoresheet has a lot of Kane and Toews on it (used to be Hossa and Sharp too, and the hope is Top Cat and Dach Holiday will take that role soon), the Hawks win. This is pretty simple stuff of course, as every team needs their best players to be their best players. The Hawks need it now especially, as they don’t have the cast of thousands to chip in. Toews wasn’t possessionally (it’s now a word fuck you) dominant, but got the goal that got the Hawks back in it and then kicked off the plays for their second and winning goals. Kane did Kane stuff.

Toews is also on a point-per-game pace his last 25, after that initial worry.

-The season still remains about what Dach and Boqvist become. It’s unfortunate for Dach that the only thing we really have to compare him to developmentally is Toews, because he’s the last center the Hawks took this high in the draft. Toews had a year of college before showing up, which probably makes a bigger difference than we think. At least as a freshman, you’re playing against other players your age or above. Dach wouldn’t have got that in Saskatoon, so he’s here. So there’s a higher learning curve, as he figures out what works now and what will work later.

You got a glimpse last night, as not only was Dach making things happen he was also not afraid to power through physically. As Fifth Feather pointed out on the podcast, we don’t know what Dach will be physically, because he’s got 20-25 pounds of muscle to put on yet. Which is kind of scary for everyone else.

Dach was put behind the eight-ball lately a bit, saddles with Zack Smith and Matthew Highmore or the like. Not only are they unskilled, they’re slow. So Dach could charge through the neutral zone and look around and see the world has abandoned him. With DeBrincat and a mobile space-opener in Carpenter, he’s got options to play off of. His goal showed off his hands and reach, because that was hardly an easy pass to catch and a chance to finish.

-To Boqvist. It feels, so far and there’s such a long way to go, that the Hawks are going about developing him the opposite way of how they should. Instead of just letting him be Adam Boqvist and figuring out where to shave off, they’re stripping him down and figuring out where to be Adam Boqvist. Compare that to how Duncan Keith came up. The stakes weren’t as high of course, and he had a full season in the AHL. But one thing you could say about Trent Yawney and Denis Savard is they let Keith be Keith and run around everywhere like he’d gotten into the pixie sticks. And then in time he figured out how to mold that into an NHL game.

Boqvist seems to want to move the puck along as quickly as possible, even if it isn’t to anyone. He is tentative to skate with it in his own zone. When the Hawks were trailing in the 3rd and they had to let him off the leash, you got a couple views of what he can do. Not only does he pinch but he’s so quick he’s getting to the puck at the circle instead of at the line, which gives him space to make a play. But he shouldn’t be trying to be Connor Murphy the rest of the time, and trying to spot when to be Adam Boqvist. It should be the opposite.

-The Hawks were intent on finishing checks last night, which is a good way to keep a much-faster team from getting away from you, especially if they’re not totally locked in. And without Makar, the Avs don’t really have another d-man to start transition so putting them all under pressure is going to cause turnovers and mistakes. I don’t know if the Hawks can play this way all the time, but it wouldn’t hurt to try.

-We occasionally get people asking us why we still do this, because our writing has gotten morose and despondent at times lately. And I understand the question, because it can seem like we’re not enjoying ourselves at all. I shouldn’t speak for everyone else here, but games like last night are why I’m still here. Because it’s still fun when they win a game like that. It’s still fun to watch Toews force his way into chances because he feels like it, or Keith to be an ice-wide blanket, or Kane to conjure something out of nothing or making a finish look that simple. It’s fun to get a vision of what Dach can do and might be one day. It’s fun to watch Connor Murphy drag Gustafsson by the dick into competence. We hope that we see more of it of course, and it’s that hope that keeps me around, I guess.

Onwards…

Hockey

Right Thoughts, Right Words, Right Action, Wrong Messenger

By Sam Fels 2132 0

Two days in arrears of this one, but thanks to the Hawks having a back-to-back we couldn’t get to Jeremy Colliton and Brent Seabrook until this morning. Such is life. But it’s worth diving into for sure.

So let’s get to the headline here, which came after Wednesday’s loss when Colliton was asked about scratching Seabrook and the reaction in the dressing room:

To quote modern philosophers Devo, “CRACK THAT WHIP.”

This wasn’t couched as it had been before both under Colliton and Quenneville when he scratched Seabrook. There wasn’t any mention of rest, or just giving him a different view, or any euphemism. That’s a straight-up “This guy sucks and I think we have better players.” Of course, the Hawks tried to cover their tracks last night by saying Seabrook was left behind for some minor injury issue while he was probably calling his agent and pouting. Certainly being hung out to dry in the press didn’t help his mood much. We saw how he reacted earlier in the year to this. It was a weak attempt, however. This is where I would insert a GIF of the scene from Ghostbusters where Melissa McCarthy and Kristen Wiig (my heart….) are debating whether or not you can put the cat back in the bag, were such a thing to exist.

Colliton went on to mention getting younger players in the lineup like Boqvist and Gilbert. Again, that’s not wrong, but it’s the talk of a rebuilding team which the Hawks have really Bird Of Paradise’d themselves to say they’re not doing. Boqvist at least should be playing all the time, and I suppose Gilbert can’t be that much worse than Seabrook now so it’s worth a free roll to see if he can be better. But it remains an organizational mixed message.

This also is basically telling the vets to shut the fuck up, and on some level you get it. They’ve had the run of the show here, and the team sucks now, so the Hawks really have to start thinking about what comes next. And what’s next is most likely to see Keith and Toews only contributors, not main cogs. Kane looks like he might still be a main cog, because he’s a mutant. Their leadership will be necessary of course, though Keith’s gruff ways have never lent themselves to being a great leader at times.

But at some point, “the core’s” wants and desires run in opposition to what’s best for the team. At least in this case, their desire to see Seabrook not fucked with does. Because the Hawks need to move on from him, plain and simple. And they know that. This was coming, as we’ve repeatedly said, no later than training camp next year when the hope would be Boqvist, Mitchell (if signed), and some other kid stake out a roster spot.

As we wrote the last time we went through this and a few times before, the Hawks had a delicate path to doing this to save face for Seabrook and themselves. They passed on that, so now they have this mess.

All that said, Jeremy Colliton is not the man to deliver this message. Because he has no cache or credibility with his team, especially the vets. We’ve known Keith has thought he’s a dolt from the get-go, and Toews basically joined him this year. Kane is placated by getting 25 minutes per night and scoring a ton, but how long that lasts I don’t know. Corey Crawford might firebomb the whole team, given what he’s been asked to cover for every start.

Colliton lost that cred by waffling on his strategy. Or by forcing seven d-men upon them to get Slater Koekkoek in the lineup against his former team who no longer knows who he is (it’s here I could argue they only had to dress seven D because Seabrook was a sacred cow still, but I won’t). The results haven’t earned him anything either. He’s been cut at the knees by both players and front office telling him to let his forwards cheat out of the zone more often, which hasn’t helped anything now that we have the greater sample on it.

So you can see why the vets would balk not at the message per se–they know Seabrook has played himself into this position, if they’ll never say it–but who is delivering it. He hasn’t earned anything from it, and they’re not going to accept it from him. I don’t even know if they’d accept it coming down from on high, given what’s gone on here the past few years. I’ll let friend of the program Chris Block settle it for you:

So he can do the right things, but they’re in the wrong time. Which is pretty much how the Hawks have operated for four seasons now.

Hockey

Game #36 – Hawks vs. Jets Preview: The Ramblin’ Wreck

By Sam Fels 1355 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 13-16-6   Jets 20-12-2

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

YOUR TAUNTAUN WILL FREEZE TO DEATH: Jetsnation.ca

The last thing a team in turmoil in the dressing room and playing like shit needs is three games in four nights. Even worse, it needs even less those three games to be against teams at the top of the division. And we’re not done, as the last two of the troika are on the road, with the last at altitude. It’s Wiggum into the hot dog machine, folks…

To be fair, the Jets aren’t that close to the Blues or Avs. They’re just a hell of a lot closer than the Hawks are, and currently hold the last automatic spot in the Central. They only have that though with a tiebreaker over the Stars, and should the Stars catch them the Jets will be in the muck as much as anyone else hovering around the wildcard spots.

So how did the Jets get here? You’d probably naturally conclude they shot their way to 42 points, but you’d be wrong. It’s hard to fathom with all the firepower the Jets have in their top six that they’re a middling 16th in goals per game, but that’s the case. They can’t figure now if Patrik Laine’s first two years are actually the outlier and now he’s just a slightly plus-sniper, but moving to the top line hasn’t shown him to be the 50-goal scorer he once flashed. Blake Wheeler has moved to the second line and while he’s producing alongside Nikolaj Ehlers, they haven’t quite brought Jack Roslovic along for the ride.

Injuries up front haven’t helped. Bryan Little is taking his customary few weeks off with some ailment or something falling off of him. Mathieu Perreault got hurt recently, and Andrew Copp left Tuesday’s game and will miss out tonight. That’s eroded what used to be one of the best third lines in the league with Adam Lowry, who will have some strangers around him tonight.

The Jets have kept their goals against down, but that’s mostly due to the brilliance of Connor Hellebuyck. He’s currently third in the league in overall SV% behind Bishop and Kuemper, and the Jets have the sixth best SV% at evens. And they need it, because this is a woeful defensive team. The departure of Jacob Trouba and the sojourn of Dustin Byfuglien (somehow) has destroyed the blue line, as the Jets have the third-worst expected GA in the league. They’re right behind the Hawks. And the thing is they’re decent enough at limiting attempts. They just can’t do much about those attempts being prime chances far too often. Strangely, Tucker Poolman didn’t save the day. I know, right?

The Jets power play hasn’t really fired yet, but you’d have to expect a binge sometime given all that is has on it.  It lacks a true QB without Byfuglien, even though that’s a very weird sentence. With that and the play of Hellebuyck, you’d have to guess the Jets will find themselves in the playoffs again. And Paul Maurice will still hang onto his job, even though that defies explanation and the team quit on him last year.

For the Hawks, it’s hard to imagine they’ll scratch Seabrook a second night in a row, given that Keith and Toews were already moaning about it yesterday. Given the size the Jets still have, wouldn’t be a shock of Colliton uses that as an excuse to sit Boqvist and keep Gilbert in the lineup, even though the Jets are going to go right around him the way the Avs did. Robin Lehner rotates in. Perhaps Sikura could get a look now that Highmore has proven to be nothing more than an extra? I won’t hold my breath.

If the Hawks are smart, which they aren’t, they can get chances against this team because the blue line is straight-up bad. But they have to keep their zone from getting caved in, which is hard to do against this top six. It’ll be the same plan for the Jets as it was the Avs last night. Attack the Hawks line at speed and get around their plodding defense. Cycle from low to high to confuse their coverage. Win all the races because the Hawks can’t get there. Don’t let Kane and DeBrincat and Saad get out in space.

We’ll see if they execute. With another date with the Avs looming Saturday, this has every chance of being an ugly week. Not ugly enough to force any tough decisions of course. There’s a process, don’t ya know?

 

Hockey

‘Tis Better To Keep Your Mouth Shut And Be Thought A Fool…

By Sam Fels 1659 0

It is my solemn duty to go through this Q&A Stan Bowman did with The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus (Closer than you know, love each other so…MARK LAZERUS). However, before we get in up to the elbow here, I want to get a couple things out of the way at the top to save us time.

One, there’s a very narrow scope of the things we can expect Stan Bowman to say. He’s not going to come out and tell Lazerus, ‘Boy this team I put together sure blows, huh? I mean they really stink! What was I thinking? This is why you don’t go to work on quaaludes, Mark!”

That would be a flashing, “Fire Me!” sign. And while you might want Stan to get fired, and I might too, we can be sure that he doesn’t want to get fired. So he’s not going to say any of that.

Second, even calling for major changes would be saying the same thing, indirectly. If Stan were to say, “Yeah, we have to do something to right the ship. This isn’t working,” he would in fact be saying, “This team sucks and I need to fix what I put together.” Again, that’s a “Fire Me!” sign.

Third, I have to battle with a major theme of this interview because we’ve already been doing it. The Hawks aren’t bad because they’re inconsistent. They’re inconsistent because they’re bad. That’s what bad teams are. Unless you completely lack talent everywhere like Detroit (that still feels good to write) or arguably New Jersey (especially now), the next tier of bad teams are bad because they simply lack the ability to put it together every night. Everyone wins five or six games in a row somewhere along the line. Even the really good teams will lose three or four in a row. What keeps those teams apart is the frequency of good performances, or performances good enough to get two points. And they can do that because they have more good players (really breaking through the layers here, aren’t I?). Or their coach inspires them most every night to stick to a plan or play harder or whatever it is. Or all of it.

So basically I’m going to skip most of the parts where Stan desperately wishes for his team to be more consistent and that will solve everything. Because they’re not going to be more consistent, because they’re bad. They don’t have enough good players. They don’t have a good coach to overcome that. Plain and simple.

Ok, let’s do it.

We can’t seem to put it all together on a consistent basis. We can do it in stretches, we’ve seen that, we’ve beaten some good teams this year, top teams in the league. But we can’t seem to keep it going. So that’s where we are. 

So this is basically Stan doing that, and is the theme for the first part of the interview. You can do the rest here.

(Andrew) Shaw’s been out for a while, and (Drake) Caggiula, too, and they play a certain style that we don’t have a lot of now. I think we do miss their energy at times. 

If you’re a team that actually “misses” Andrew Shaw and Drake Caggiula, then you have a shit-ass hockey team. Plain and simple. These are, at-best, third line players that you should be able to replace with call-ups or extra forwards. And if you can’t, that’s on your organizational depth. Caggiula especially, who has played just about half of a season and the most kind you could be to him is to call him “useful.” That’s a long way from game-changer.

Our power play’s starting to be a little more consistent now and it’s scored somewhat regularly in the last 10 games or so. From that perspective, that could be something. When you have goaltending and a power play, it can help your team get some wins. 

You can’t count on a power play and goaltending as structural bases for long-term success. They may buy you a season. But the only thing that matters month after month and year after year is even-strength play. You’re basically saying you have to gimmick your way to points here.

So we’ve got to rely on the guys that do have the experience to be consistent performers. That’s just what we haven’t had, sort of across the board. 

I can’t fathom whom this is aimed at. Patrick Kane? The guy who is top-10 in scoring with little PP help? Jonathan Toews got off to a slow start, but is ticking at a 60+ point at the moment. And that’s what he is. Did the Hawks expect him to set another career high in goals and points at 32? Did they not think last year was something of an outlier? Brandon Saad? He’s been your most consistent forward and is on target for the 25 goals he pretty much always provides. Keith’s been hurt. Certainly not Corey Crawford, who has every right to simply lay down his gear in the crease and walk away in the middle of every game he’s under siege. Connor Murphy has been your best d-man by some distance. So who are we talking about here?

If he’s laying this at the feet of just now 22-year-old Alex DeBrincat and his low SH%…well I just don’t know…

Even the games that we’ve lost recently where we (lost) leads, it comes down to just a few things here and there. 

This is always the lament of the damned. It’s hockey. Every game comes down to a few things here and there. The good teams do them. The bad teams don’t. You don’t just start magically doing them because you want to.

I think our veterans need to be more consistent in their habits and details, as well.

Again, I don’t know exactly what this is getting at. Maybe there’s something at practice or behind the scenes that they’re not doing. And it’s true, on the ice we’ve seen things like Toews taking a shortcut here or there (fleeing the zone, reaching instead of moving, fly-bys) and Keith on his own agenda at times. Kane doesn’t always come back, but then again that’s always been an element of his game. But these aren’t the major problems, and I don’t know that calling out your vets when you’ve surrounded them with this and having them led by that is the route you want to go here, Stanny Boy.

I think we know, like Jeremy says, when we do the right things, we’re a good team. But we’ve got to do them consistently. We can’t do them sporadically. Maybe we could do that in previous years, years ago, when we could play for a period and a half and find a way to win. We’re not designed for that right now. We’ve got some younger players and we’re trying to expand their roles, expose them to the NHL, build some of their habits. And at the same time, we need performances, as well.

A) see above.

B) This is the main crux of the problem. Stan says they’re trying to get young players experience, which is what a rebuilding team would do. And then the very next sentence is about winning. I’d ask which is it, but the Hawks and Stan don’t know.

The beginning of the season, we played pretty well coming back from Europe in that home stretch. We didn’t really get rewarded with wins, but we lost some games we deserved to win where we really outplayed the opponent and outshot them. 

Did you now? Let’s see if we can find them: Blew a huge lead agains San Jose, didn’t deserve shit. Played ok against the Jets, got a point. Actually played pretty well against Vegas, could argue deserved another point. Weren’t bad against Washington. So if I’m as generous as humanly possible, that’s three more points. Which would give the Hawks 35. Which would have them seven points out of a playoff spot. And still last in the division. Oh how cruel the Gods be!

There’s also a lot of allusions to the stretch in November, which is bogus because Stan goes on to say how he doesn’t focus on a handful of games when things are going bad. You can’t do either. You have to look at the whole thing, and Stan only does when it’s convenient. A few bad games aren’t proof that everyone needs to go, but a few good ones prove that this team can be successful?

I think right now, just getting in the playoffs, you can easily win the Cup.

This garbage needs to stop, and it needed to stop long ago. Just because it does happen on occasion doesn’t mean it’s a hard and fast rule. One, your previous champs (Caps, Penguins, Hawks, Kings second time, Bruins) were all 100+ point teams among the best in the league and among the best for a while. You don’t have to say, win the Presidents’ Trophy or even the division, but generally you have to be among the members of the penthouse.

Second, the Blues were built to be that, and actually finished a mere point or two from it. They spent the first half of the year trying to get their coach fired. They played like they were supposed to for the last half of the season. They aren’t some Cinderella story. It’s about more than just “getting in” (any woman would tell you that).

He brings a different element than pretty much any of our other defensemen with his physicality and his aggressiveness.

I really don’t want to get on Dennis Gilbert’s case here. He is what he is and he’s doing what he thinks he has to to stay in the league. More power to him. The problem is that Stan is completely misdiagnosing the main reason the Hawks are garbage water. It’s mobility on the blue line. They don’t need the element Gilbert brings. They need everything he doesn’t. Speed and skill and vision. They have one player with it, he’s 19 and drowning at the moment. This sentence right here is why the Hawks are so far behind everything.

When the coaches are evaluating how this guy is doing, they’re not always looking at how many goals did he get, how many assists does he have. They’re looking at what did he do, how much is he growing in his role. Last year, Dylan did a good job of that. He had nothing to show for it, but he helped his line in a positive way. Alex was, as well. 

This is half correct, so I’m gonna throw some WOWYs at you (with and without stats) for Sikura and Nylander.

Sikura last year (CF% with/CF% without):

Saad: 58.8/51.9

Anisimov: 58.1/44.7

Toews: 58.0/50.5

Nylander this year:

Toews: 47.2/50.9

Saad: 51.0/54.1

Kane: 41.4/46.5

Thank you for your time.

Alex is not different than any of the other players that way. 

Utter horseshit. Nylander and Sikura have basically now played the same amount of games for the Hawks. Nylander has scored two goals that mattered and yet he’s playing on the top six and Sikura has already been designated for departure and can’t get on the ice ahead of immobile pudwhack Matthew Highmore. The difference is that the Hawks actually gave up a representative NHL player for Nylander, and they’re doing everything they can to cover their ass about it.

That’s a question nobody knows the answer to. We don’t know how quickly the young players are going to become impact players.

Um…shouldn’t you? Isn’t that part of the calculus when you draft someone? “We think it’ll take him this long to get here?” At least have some sort of projection? Or do you have to consult shamans and witches and such? Is that why Canadians spend so much time in the woods?

There is no plan, but there’s a process.

 

Hockey

Game #35 – Avalanche vs. Hawks Preview: Only One Way To Go

By Sam Fels 1327 0

vs.

RECORDS: Avs 21-9-3   Hawks 13-15-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

ROCKY MOUNTAIN WAY: Mile High Hockey

You can’t get a more clear illustration of one team with everything in front of them, and one that can’t stop staring down than on Wednesday Night Hockey tonight. Heightened by the fact that the Avs have already Macho Man Elbowed the Hawks twice this year, and it’s hard to find a bigger chasm you can watch. But hey, they make you play all 82.

The big story probably lies with the Hawks tonight, as once again Brent Seabrook is a healthy scratch. And according to Jeremy
Colliton, this isn’t about making some statement. I don’t know if this signals some massive youth movement for the Hawks, but either way this is correct. With Duncan Keith returning tonight and Adam Boqvist needing minutes with a real d-man, there’s little option really. Sure, bending over for Dennis Gilbert is not a good look for anyone, but this was going to happen when the Hawks have other actual promising kids around and it’s probably not the worst message to send to everyone that they will get looks if they’ve earned it over sputtering vets. Hell, if de Haan were every going to be healthy again, Seabrook might be looking at being #8 on the depth chart.

The other story is Keith returns as well and will pair with Murphy, which for a handful of games early in the season actually looked like a thing. Whether this is the team you’d want to return against when your groin is iffy is another question. But there probably isn’t much choice.

If there was hope the Avs might take this one lightly, those probably disappeared with them getting soundly beaten by the Blues 5-2 on Monday. And the last thing the Hawks need is an ornery Avs team that they can’t handle. They probably can’t handle them heavily medicated.

The Avs are beat up on the blue line. Cale Makar and Erik Johnson have missed the past few games and won’t play tonight. That leaves a first pairing of Samuel Girard and Nikita Zadorov, which you would think even the Hawks could get at. But you’d think a lot of things.

The problem is that unlike their double-header after Thanksgiving, the Avs are just about fully operational at forward now. Gabriel ThreeYaksAndADog is back, so’s Matt Calvert, and the Hawks couldn’t handle the Avs when they were rounding their fourth line out with AHL flotsam. So that’s fun.

Nathan MacKinnon is definitely off on one, so good luck to Keith’s groin. He’s got 34 points in his last 21 games, has vaulted into the top-five in scoring, and is going to make a case for yet a Hart Trophy before too long. One that has somehow eluded him to this point in his career. He’s got running buddy Mikko Rantanen back, and Burakovsky has loved being on the other side.

The Hawks simply couldn’t deal with the Avs transition speed, and also couldn’t find the Avs’ centers when they were set up in the Hawks’ zone. Both MacKinnon and Kadri benefitted from waiting out near the blue line while the puck was down low behind the Hawks’ net last time, and then crashing down when possession was won and the Hawks looking for them and not finding them. Watch for this tonight and whether one of the Hawks wingers abandons a point to cover this or the center leaves the front of the net to get out high against them. Either is probably a better choice than simply letting MacKinnon run around free all he likes.

The Hawks are now the wooden spooners of the West. That should embarrass everyone, but we’ll see if they have a response. It could be an ugly week, as they have the Avs twice with the Jets sandwiched in between. Perhaps fear of embarrassment is what they need.

Hockey

It Actually Might Be A Little Worse Than You Think

By Sam Fels 1599 0

Last night, with their win in Boston, the Kings leapfrogged the Hawks to officially put the West Side Hockey Club in the basement of the Western Conference. The Hawks are one point ahead of the Ottawa Senators. That’s the Ottawa Senators, who had been the laughingstock of the NHL, purposely heading to the depths to try and turn around their future. With the owner who has a scuba tank full of paint so he can continually huff it, and turns it up before meeting the press. The Senators, who don’t have three players you can name right now. They’re right on the Hawks’ ass, in probably the tougher conference

And it’s almost a year to the day the Hawks were last in the basement of the West, which lets you know just about all the progress they’re making. All their moves and bluster and assurance they knew what they were doing and you would see. And not only are they running in place, they’re running place behind everyone.

And here’s the thing, the Kings are actually better than they are and by a decent margin, when you look at what’s really going on. The Kings’ possession numbers are actually some of the best in the league. So are their expected goal numbers. What they can’t get is a save or shots to go in, even with all the decent ones they’re creating and the ones they’re not letting up. They have one of the worst PDOs in the league. They’re a touch unlucky to be where they are, but that’s what happens when you count on Jonathan Quick and their aging snipers.

The Wings and Devils, the only two teams below the Hawks, also have shitty PDOs. But they have shitty goalies and a lack of true scoring talent as well. So that adds up.

Here’s the thing…

THE HAWKS HAVE BOTH OF THOSE.

They have good goalies. They have talented scorers. They’re not unlucky at all to be where they are, which doesn’t make any goddamn sense because if you have good goalies and you have talented scorers you’re supposed to be unlucky if you’re in the bottom of the standings. Something is supposed to have gone off the boil. Something is not aligning.

But now, that’s how bad the Hawks are structurally. Their goalies can make a very good proportion of saves, and their forwards can pot a decent amount of chances…and none of it matters because of the avalanche of shots and chances going against them. You probably realize how fucked up that is, but they certainly don’t.

So any other organization would conclude it’s all not working and would have to start over. We’ve talked and talked incessantly about how a start-over/tear-down just isn’t possible, but I become less and less convinced of that. Let’s see if we can’t get there.

I never ascribed to the theory that a GM gets only one coaching hire before he too has to hit the bricks. Every situation is different, and if it were completely clear that a roster were being completely mangled by an incompetent coach that just totally went off the reservation, well the GM should get to replace that guy. Take the Bulls…well, actually, don’t, because that front office might be even more fucked up. But in a vacuum, the roster isn’t that bad, has some promise, and if there weren’t two morons in there playing the Simpson Men Pot-on-a-head game constantly you could argue they should be allowed to hire a competent coach to see what they have.

But this Hawks roster is obviously not good enough, and it didn’t have to be this bad, so clearly Stan and Kelvin have to go. But what would someone with fresh eyes see here?

The going theory is that with the NMCs all the Hawks stars have, they can’t get out from under all of it. Well, here’s a question: How much longer is Patrick Kane willing to put up with this shit? He’s still playing at a near-MVP level, and he might not have that many years of that performance left. Maybe he feels he’s got all the hardware he could ever need, and he wouldn’t be wrong. But he’s also a sociopathic competitor and this has to kill him to be playing meaningless hockey for a third straight year.

That’s the main domino. The $10.5M cap hit for another three years makes it a tricky move, and the Hawks will have to eat at least some of it if not half, but do we really think that if Kane asks out–or volunteers out as it’s dressed up as some sort of favor to the only team he’s ever known–that no one would call? No one would at least see what they could do? If they only had to pay, say, $7M a year for him? Absolutely no one would think about that?

How many teams could use the kickstart? Nashville? San Jose? You can always convince Vancouver to do something stupid (and isn’t that an image!) If you took some of their bad money back too that came off the books sooner? It’s not impossible.

And really, that’s the only tear down you’re going to get. But if Kane goes, Keith probably does too or simply retires. Toews is here for life because he has way less value at his salary and questionable role in the future. But he’s also probably a good torch-bearer for those who will lead the next rush. And you could finally employ the Seabrook plan we’ve been pushing since last season.

That’s not going to happen, of course. The Hawks plan is one more run with #2, #19, and #88. But how’s that going to happen? We’ve constantly outlined how even with Mitchell signing and being crowbarred into the lineup and maybe Beaudin that the Hawks max out as a wildcard team. They don’t have the room to do anything up front to have the depth they need to be a contender. .

That’s not a plan. Good thing they’ve told us they don’t have a plan, then. It’s time for the Molotov cocktails.

Hockey

Angry At Numbers – 12/17

By Sam Fels 1552 0

Thought I would take the time to dig deep into some nerdlingers for you. Let’s get to it.

60.4, 42.7

We talked last night, you would have heard it this morning if you were so inclined, on the podcast about Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach. The idea since Dach was drafted is that he would one day supplant Toews as the #1 center, and hopefully soon in that it would only make the Hawks stronger, not due to any decline of Toews. And after a slow start, Toews’s metrics are actually pretty stout the past 15 games. 54.9 CF%, 55. 2 xGF%. That’s probably more than stout. Dach’s numbers are obviously less so.

But what you’re seeing above is the offensive zone starts for Toews and then Dach the last 15 games. Which has to raise questions about how exactly you’re going to develop Dach by starting him outside the offensive zone 60% of the time, not to mention saddling him with fourth-line players. Dach’s certainly going to have to learn to play in his own zone, but right now he is a gifted offensive player and the Hawks are actually short on scoring. So why is he taking the ass end of shift starts?

If the Hawks would like to know why Dach hasn’t registered a point in 12 games, here you go. He’s not being given the best chance. And this is the future for your team, at least it had better be. Is there no confidence that Toews can turn the ice? It’s hard to know because this is how Toews has been used all season. But if the Hawks hope to get more out of Dach this year, they have to get him up the ice. And we know the Hawks can’t do that themselves.

+8.9

That’s Connor Murphy’s relative xGF% above the Hawks rate. It’s the 7th best mark in the league among d-men. To boot, no one else in the top 20 is getting worse zone starts than Murphy. Only Jared Spurgeon and Patrik Nemeth are even close. So next time Pat and Eddie are bellowing about how good Keith and de Haan have been and how they’re the two best Hawks defensemen, just remember this and that neither is anywhere close to Murphy. Who will have to be traded in the offseason for cap and roster space because no one is going to want de Haan and his one shoulder or Maatta and his no talent. And you should throw your hands up frantically accordingly.

.859

That’s Corey Crawford’s high-danger save-percentage at evens, which ranks third in the league behind Tuukka Rask and Henrik Lundqvist. This has been something of a specialty of Crow’s the past few years, as he tends to make just about the most amount of saves he shouldn’t make in the league. The past five years, only Sergei Bobrovsky has a better high-danger SV%, and Ben Bishop is right behind him, and both have been Vezina finalists while Crow never has. In that time, Crow also has the best dSV%, which is the difference between a goalie’s expected save-percentage and his actual. Hopefully, for his sake, there’s a contending team out there that sees these numbers and makes the Hawks a boffo offer for Crow at the deadline, because he deserves playing behind better than this utter trash fire as well as the lack of recognition he gets here. But I tend to doubt that will be the case, and instead he’ll just walk in favor of Robin Lehner and his gaping maw of a mouth to tell you just how hard he’s working behind the same shit defense.

Hockey

Game #34: Wild 3, Hawks 5 – I’m Just Trying to Keep My Head Above the Ground

By Rose Rankin 1877 0

Patrick Kane picked a good time to have a hat trick. Yes, the third goal was an empty netter but you know what? After the debacle against St. Louis last night someone had to step up and it might as well be Kane. This team needed to bounce back in any way at all, and this game at the very least shows that they haven’t totally quit. Let’s take a look:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The Hawks proved yet again that they’re specialists at blowing a multi-goal lead. Yet, tonight was definitely not as egregious as Saturday against the Blues. The Hawks played well in the first in fact, going up 2-0 thanks to Patrick Kane’s give-a-shit meter hovering around 6.5 for a while. Hell, one of those goals was even on the power play, so things were looking up. Unfortunately Kirby Dach took a penalty immediately after the second goal, and that led to the Wild’s first, but overall the Hawks were decent—they only gave up 9 shots in the first, had a 50 CF% at evens, and yes, they were in fact winning.

–That all changed, of course, when noted offensive powerhouse Kevin Fiala went off for a couple goals. He tied it at 2 in the second, the Hawks went back ahead on David Kampf‘s redirect of a Connor Murphy shot, and then Fiala tied it again. This is obviously frustrating since they cannot hold a lead to save their lives, but it wasn’t the ass-waxing they got in the span of just a couple minutes against the Blues last night.

–Olli Maatta had a tough night. He got burned on Fiala’s first goal, which was a blocked pass by Kane and then Maatta just couldn’t come anywhere close to catching him. And it was Maatta’s skate that redirected Fiala’s shot and became his second goal, tying the game yet again at 3. The first was definitely his fault, if you can consider slowness as a personal failing (I can and do), but the second was just one of those things that happens. Again, maddening to see them blow a lead but it was such a weird situation there’s not much you can point to that could or should have been different.

–And besides, that luck came back around to the Hawks with Connor Murphy’s shot (there he is again!) that was crazily redirected by Saad going up and over Kaapo Kahkonen for the go-ahead goal. It wasn’t the prettiest or most coherent of strategies, but whatever, we’ll take it. I spent the remaining four minutes of the game gnawing at my fingernails expecting them to blow it again, and I can only imagine most of the crowd at the UC felt the same way.

–But, lo and behold, Garbage Dick staved off a total collapse with the empty netter than sealed it.

–Stupid Alex Nylander was on the second line with Strome and Kane, and he assisted on Kane’s first goal so of course we’ll now see him in the top 6 again until he has another night like last night, with 4,872 dumb plays being out of position. He was already back to his clueless antics later in the game, with a lazy dump-in from the wrong side of center that became a late icing. It didn’t lead to a goal and it wasn’t the end of the world, but it’s just more evidence of careless stupidity and a lack of awareness on Nylander’s part. All I can figure is that Bowman et. al are so terrified of acknowledging the short-sightedness of trading Jokiharju for this jamoke that they’re determined to shoehorn him anywhere and everywhere, as long as it’s not in the AHL. Nylander constantly looks surprised and frightened when the puck comes his way, and one pass to one of the most talented scorers in the league doesn’t change that.

So this wasn’t exactly a dominant performance, but it was definitely what the Hawks needed. They gave up a very acceptable 26 shots, and although their possession numbers in the second and third were underwater, they managed to keep their shit together even after giving up the lead twice, and it paid off. I guess the downside is that Jeremy Colliton keeps his job a little bit longer, but that’s a price I can deal with if it means not watching the hot mess express for a second night in a row.

Line of the Night: “Every time he’s tried that in the NHL it hasn’t worked—you’re not playing 18-year-olds.” —Pat Foley criticizing Kirby Dach for a nifty move that was well defended, because apparently yelling at the kids is helpful right now.

Hockey

Game #34 – Wild vs. Hawks Preview: Collecting Fallout From The Blast

By Sam Fels 1647 0

vs.

RECORDS: Wild 16-12-5   Hawks 12-15-6

PUCK DROP: 6pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BEYOND THE WALL: Hockey Wilderness

Well, should be quite the tasty atmosphere at the United Center this evening, no?

Tonight is all about finding out if this is bottom or not. The Hawks will be in front of what has to be a cantankerous home crowd after their worst loss of the season last night (which is saying something, given the variety of defeats already on offer). And it might not be all that full, though it probably won’t be anywhere near Bulls-levels (yet). Any sign of more incompetence is going to be met with boos and a hearty amount, you would think. Have the Hawks ever faced that from their fans? Their previous seasons have mostly been met with indifference. This will not be that.

And it’s really about how the team responds to not just that. After a crushing setback and their recent form, we’ll know if they have totally quit tonight. Or do they still have some professional pride left, which can be just called fear of embarrassment, and scrape together something to at least let everyone know they aren’t in fact dead? They may hate the coach, they may think the front office has steered them wrong, but surely they don’t want to keep getting their dicks kicked in and save some face? If they can’t manage anything beyond limp for most of the contest tonight, major changes have to be made the very next day. They won’t be, but they’ll need to be. If you’ve ever wished for Jonathan Toews – Player/Coach, you just might get it Monday.

As for the Wild, this nothing squad has managed to go 14 games with only one loss in regulation, going 9-1-4 and zooming up the standings to the fringe of the playoff spots. They’ve overcome inevitability catching up with Devan Dubnyk, and then injury, and have made do with Alex Stalock and Kaapo Kahkonen. They’ve have a revitalized and healthy Parise scoring goals. Somehow Eric Staal is still a genuine #1 center, and Jason Zucker is also pouring them in.

And once again Bruce Boudreau has employed a system that is fine with giving up attempts and shots from the outside, but gives up very few quality chances. The Wild are a middling at best Corsi team, but have the second best xGA/60 in the league. They can’t create a ton, but they don’t give up much and are more than happy to collapse to the middle of their zone and let you have it on the perimeter. What an interesting idea. When the chance comes, they will get up the ice off turnovers and mistakes and have the d-men to join in as well in Suter, Dumba, Spurgeon (when healthy) and Brodin. And even if Boudreau’s “structure” at times gets loose, his charges show up every night and skate hard because they have to.

In the end, it’s not likely to go anywhere, but he usually gets the most out of what he has. The Wild can’t ask for much more, as they try to figure out how to transition their next phase.

For the Hawks, there aren’t that many lineup changes they can make. Robin Lehner will start. Alex Nylander should be thrown into a trash pile somewhere along Damen Avenue, but it seems orders from on high will dictate that he be jammed into the lineup in the faint hope that he magically turns into something. Dylan Sikura should be back in the lineup, but he’s run afoul of both coach and front office in just two games it seems.

If Colliton were really going to go down swinging, he’d promote Boqvist with Murphy and put Dach in between Saad and Kubalik. Why? Because you’re already suffering lapses defensively and missed checks and turnovers, so how much worse can the kids be than what the vets have given him? What are we hanging onto here? If it’s time to move on from what came before, and it is, why wait around? Want to make sure you’re in dead last first?

Really curious to see how the whole organization responds to this weekend. Something tells me they won’t be able to stick their head in the sand much longer.

Hockey

Game #33 – Hawks vs. Blues Preview: This Used To Be A Playground

By Sam Fels 1499 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 12-14-6   Blues 19-8-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

A HIVE OF SCUM AND VILLAINY: St. Louis Gametime

We never thought this day would come. But nothing lasts forever, especially anything good and beautiful. So for the first time, the Hawks will walk into any arena in St. Louis that houses the Blues and see a championship banner hanging above the ice. And you can be sure that any traveling Hawk fan will be made acutely aware of it repeatedly. Godspeed, you weirdos.

Things haven’t gone all that smoothly for the Notes since they swatted away the Hawks at the UC with laughable ease in the first game of the month. They’ve lost three of four, getting brained by the Penguins, Leafs, and even Sabres. They recovered somewhat by beating the Knights on Thursday, though that was more of a case of better finishing as they were on the back foot for most of the night.

Injuries have been something of a problem. Vladimir Tarasenko has been a long-term casualty, and some depth forwards like Zach Sanford, Sammy Blais (TO BLAIISSSS, WHICH WE ALL KNOW MEANS TO BLUFF), and Alex Steen have been out, though Steen will return tonight. While the Blues have useful players up and down the lineup when healthy, they don’t have a ton of depth scoring, so when Perron, O’Reilly, Schenn go cold as they have of late, the goals dry up. Thus their four goals in those three losses mentioned above.

And Jordan Binnington has dipped of late. While the Blues hold down attempts among the best in the league, the chances among those attempts flow a little more freely than they’d be comfortable with. He was better against the Knights but pilfered by the Penguins and Leafs, and the Blues need superior goaltending to get by at the moment. Sadly, Jay Gallon has picked up the slack in that vacuum, as life as a backup seems to suit him pretty well.

As for the Hawks tonight, the only change will see them swap goalies again, so Matthew Highmore will stay in over Dylan Sikura to do whatever it is he does and not do whatever it is the Hawks think he does. With the injuries around the defense sort of picks itself, and complaining about Dennis Gilbert over Slater Koekkoek is akin to two children fighting over a damp and putrid sponge. What the fuck does it matter?

When these two teams last met, the Blues found it very easy to keep their hands on the Hawks’ forehead and let them swing their arms lightly. If there’s one thing the Blues can do is follow a plan when necessary, and they chose the path of just standing up at their blue line, forcing the Hawks to dump the puck in, and wait for the chances they knew the Hawks would present. It worked to a T, and will again if they stick to it tonight. At home they might be tempted to unleash the forecheck more, which can also work against the Hawks, but it does leave the Hawks the one window of finding some space in the neutral zone if they can get through the initial wave (Narrator: They can’t).

Not that games in St. Louis were ever pleasant when the Hawks were good and the Blues were not. These were something of a Super Bowl to the Blues, and the bullshit ran high on the ice and in the stands. You were happy when they were over, no matter the result. That remains the same, but this is now the entire Blues Nation to rub the Hawks’ nose in the new arrangement of things. And they can also consign the Hawks even deeper into the muck, and one wonders if the Hawks look embarrassing against in both games this weekend just how much longer Jeremy Colliton‘s stay of execution will last.

Let’s get through it together.