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Game #18 – Hawks vs. Hurricanes Spotlight: Dougie Caine

By Sam Fels November 12, 2018 1738 0

Let’s start with the raw numbers right at the top. Since he came into the league in the season-in-a-can of ’13, Dougie Hamilton is 4th in CF%. He’s third in relative-Corsi. The names ahead of him are Erik Karlsson and Mark Giordano. The names behind him are Hampus Lindholm and Kris Letang. He’s seventh in that time (min. 5,000 minutes played) in relative expected-goals percentage, ahead of names like Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Marc-Eduoard Vlasic. If you go by straight points, Hamilton is 17th among d-men who have played 400 games in that time. Clearly, Dougie Hamilton has been one of the best d-men in the league for six seasons now.

When you look at the list of d-men around him in any of these categories, you’ll notice that none of them have been traded twice. Most haven’t even once. Anton Stralman is an under-the-radar player that signed as a free agent in Tampa. Brent Burns was a forward when he got traded. Karlsson was traded because his former team is A). going through a rebuild and B.) is an asylum for the truly confused. Quite simply, everyone treats a d-man of this class like a precious stone. Because they are. The amount of game-changing, right-handed d-men who turn the ice over is a list you could compile on barely two plies of toilet paper. It’s Drew Doughty, Hamilton, Karlsson, Burns, supposedly Dustin Byfuglien (we’re skeptical), PK Subban, and that’s about it. Throw John Carlson on there if you must.

So why has Dougie Hamilton been traded twice?

The Bruins and Flames both tried to throw Hamilton under the bus after they traded him, mostly to justify to a fanbase why they made silly trades that ended up with them getting, at best, 75 cents on the dollar. You’ve heard the jokes about Hamilton going to museums while teammates went to movies or holding farting competitions. You’ve heard he’s just kind of out there as a guy.

Most of this is utter garbage, as might suspect. These days, with media being everywhere, a problem in the dressing room would not be able to be kept a secret for very long. And yet you never hear about problems with Hamilton until he’s already been jettisoned. Then it just becomes justification to questions they don’t have answers to for real.

Is Hamilton something of a free thinker? Yeah, seems that way. Is he interested in himself more than others? Probably. So’s PK Subban and it got him dealt to Nashville. They’ve basically been the best team in the Western Conference since and Montreal, whatever the start to this season, has spent a majority of the time with its collective dick in its hand (and this year’s start has taken place without Shea Weber anyway). The Preds sure don’t seem to mind whatever it is Subban is as a person.

Hockey certainly isn’t the only sport that has looked suspiciously on a player that doesn’t seem fully invested in being “one of the guys.” Football has long had this problem, where any player who reads something else other than his playbook is to be regarded with suspicion. Baseball sees some of this as well.

But the fears with Hamilton have gone overboard, considering the rare production a team gets from him every season. What’s more important, that he’s seen as a drinking buddy by everyone or he is one fo the best d-men in the league? While team chemistry is important, it’s not like things happen on the ice because Hamilton was hanging out by himself one night and not out at the local with a couple of other wingers. Sure, if he was an actual disruption or raging asshole, we’d know. And that would be a problem. No one’s saying that he is or has been.

The Hurricanes don’t seem to care, and we’re all too happy to plug him into their top-pairing and watch him kick everyone’s ass on a nightly basis. This is another brilliant example of hockey’s outright terror of “the individual” ahead of the team. Anything that doesn’t fall uniformly in line and indistinguishable from everyone else is to be killed or eliminated as quickly as possible. Mostly because hockey is run by old drunks with a lot of head injuries who can’t remember anything but their way.

Perhaps one day it will change. Until it does, teams and front offices like Carolina’s that rightly swipe it away as nothing more than a slight nuisance will be be a half-step ahead.

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Game #18 – Hawks vs. Hurricanes Q&A: Section 328 Again, Because Four Days Is But A Drop In An Ocean

By Sam Fels November 12, 2018 1549 0

This is the Q&A with @Section328 from last Thursday, because four days in an NHL season pass with the impact of a fart in the wind.

A new coach, seemingly a new system, a new celebration, very shiny metrics and yet still outside the playoff spots at the moment. What’s changed with the Canes from Bill Peters to Rod The Bod?

Everything outside of the results. The team feels looser, more open, and less likely to give up on a game when they get down. This team’s amount of give-a0shit is measurably higher than any BP team.

Andrei Svechnikov has come right into the team from the draft. First impressions?

He looks good, and also looks like a rookie. One shift he’ll win a battle along the boards and get a great scoring chance. Two shifts later he’ll either turn the puck over or get goaded into a penalty by some wily veteran. Still seems like the sky’s the limit for him.

Dougie Hamilton and Michael Ferland were the return for Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm. How have they fit in?

Really, REALLY well. Raleigh has several museums which has helped Dougie feel at home and Ferland has helped round out the top line more than we would have hoped for. Hamilton started the season a little slow, and for some reason he hasn’t gotten much power at time, but the last 5-6 games, he’s made a lot of impressive plays and is starting to let his shot fly. Ferland has brought a physical element, with a good amount of skill, that this team hasn’t had in years.

The Canes were rumored to be shopping Justin Faulk this summer, including to the Hawks. Is he now going to stay or might he be deadline fodder and why wouldn’t the Canes want to keep him?

When the team announced they were keeping a letter on the front of his sweater, much trade talk moved from Faulk to Pesce, another RHD. He seems to have a weight off his shoulders now that he’s not a co-captain (and thankfully the team doesn’t have that crap this year) so we think he’s more likely to stay than go.

Is William Nylander coming to town?

There’s the big question. When the Canes started strong, we saw no reason to make a big move. Now, that’s changed. It’s hard to read Kyle Dubas, and they’ve said they don’t want to trade him, but there’s been a LOT of smoke lately between Raleigh and Toronto. For now, we’re still thinking it doesn’t happen, but we wouldn’t bet too much money on it

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Game #18 – Hawks vs. Hurricanes: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels November 12, 2018 1364 0

Game #18 Preview Suite

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Game #18 – Hawks vs. Hurricanes: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels November 12, 2018 1481 0

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Game #16 – Hurricanes 4, Hawks 3: Welcome to Your Life

By Rose Rankin November 8, 2018 2313 0

And the Jeremy Colliton era begins! So much hope, so much excitement, so much resentment by large numbers of people and…we got reminded how much the defense sucks regardless of the coach. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

– Let’s set aside all of the wailing and teeth-gnashing over Quenneville’s firing because we’re going to hear about it again everywhere, from Twitter to the Score to the Metra platform tomorrow. The first period was really the awful one where their defense dug them into the hole from which light could not escape. And you know that the giardiniera-soaked masses will take this performance as proof that DEY SHOULDN’A GOTTEN RIDDA Q MY FRENT. In the reality in which we live, however, the Hawks are still dealing with the same amount of talent that they had as of Monday afternoon, and that was made clear tonight. Far too often in the first (and to a lesser degree, the second period), the Hawks avoided the front of their own net as if they had a life-threatening allergy to providing Crawford with some support. By the time Calvin de Haan waltzed in for the fourth goal early in the second on a power play, Crow was so pissed he destroyed his stick on the net like Pete Townsend smashing a guitar.

– Beyond just hanging their goalie out to dry, the Hawks’ defense did other dumb shit such as Erik Gustafsson making multiple bad turnovers early on, and Henri Jokiharju taking a needless penalty, with Keith kind of contributing to it, which led directly the second goal. I’m sure Jeremy Colliton knew what he was getting with this defense—particularly since he sat Brandon Manning so this guy’s already OK in my book—but it was the harshest possible welcoming to the defense that is now his albatross.

– Alright, the defense sucks, we know that. Time for some positives. The Hawks were down by four goals and actually made a game of this, which tells you how shitty Carolina’s defense is, but also that not all is lost with our offense. Saad scored a pretty one (technically Kampf got credit for it but it was his ass being in front that scored, Saad did the actual work), Schmaltz did too (SEE DUMMY, SHOOT SOMETIMES), and Kane lifted TVR’s stick just enough to knock the puck in from the crease.

– On a related note, guess what guys? Trevor van Riemsdyk still sucks! In addition to Kane’s maneuver, Schmaltz also burned him in the third on his goal. Same as it ever was.

– Speaking of Patrick Kane, Colliton rode him like a rented mule tonight. Can’t really blame him either. Kane was out there for an entire power play (fine, cool, whatever), and had just over 22 minutes of ice time. The power play didn’t make huge strides but at least Kane was out there with some right-handed shots. As Sam said earlier, baby steps.

–Marcus Kruger got his knee disemboweled by Clark Bishop basically taking his feet out from under him. Kruger hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire lately but the last thing this team needs is LESS depth, or for the defensive-zone-starting stalwart to be out for any length of time. It looked incredibly painful and shitty though when he hit that post.

– Back to the giardiniera-soaked masses, they’ll surely be rabid about how well Scott Darling played while Crawford gave up four goals in barely more than one period. Nevermind the fact that, as discussed, the Hawks defense completely screwed Crawford over, or that he had multiple fantastic saves after the Pete Townsend impression. If you come across one of these people tomorrow, ignore them and move on.

So it wasn’t exactly the strongest start to this brave new world, but we all knew the defense blows, and seriously Colliton has had barely 48 hours with this team. Remember, he benched Brandon Manning so there’s GOT to be hope. Onward and upward.

Photo credit: Chicago Tribune

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Game #16 – Hurricanes vs. Hawks Preview: It’s A New Day, Yes It Is

By Sam Fels November 8, 2018 1641 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hurricanes 6-7-2 Hawks 6-6-3

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

HE HIT THE FUCKIN’ BULL, DIDN’T HE?: Canes Country, Section 328

However you feel about Joel Quenneville‘s firing, tonight marks the most interest-laden regular season game in quite some time around these parts. Anyone with the slightest inkling of Hawks give-a-shit is going to want to tune in and see whatever changes might be visible (also, Eddie O’s pregame take should be must-see viewing, as well as the verbal wheel-poses and one-legged crows he and Foley will perform trying to air their grievances without directly indicting their bosses. I’m almost sorry I’ll be in the building. Almost).

As far as things you can identify on the ice tonight, they might be scarce. Jeremy Colliton himself has said there isn’t really time for a systematic overhaul, and that there will only be tweaks to start with. As we said yesterday, the big things to watch for, if any, are how the Hawks try to break out of the zone. Whether they’re still trying to make two or three passes to do so or if they just go with a GTFO-method. The other will be how they defend, as we’ve seen them try to be more pressure-based with very mixed results, to be kind. Colliton has made noise about being just as aggressive but doing so farther up the ice. We’ll see if that materializes and what they do in their own end. Right now we’re just asking for four guys not to end up on one side of the zone and all puck-watching. Baby steps to the elevator, people.

As far as lineup decisions, Colliton has told John Hayden, Brandon Manning, and SuckBag Johnson to do one tonight, and you certainly can’t fault him on the latter two. The difference between Hayden or Andreas Martinsen is somewhere around negligible, so we’re not going to hold our breath until we turn purple on that one. Sadly, it appears that Nick Schmaltz will remain on a wing tonight, with Artem Anisimov and Patrick Kane, but again…baby steps to the elevator.

You might look at the Carolina Hurricanes’ record and conclude that this is a pretty nice landing for a first-time coach making his debut in front of what will be an at-best skeptical UC crowd. This would be a mistake. While the Canes’ record sucks, and for the usual reason in that they can’t hit a bull in the ass with a snow-shovel when it comes to scoring, their metrics suggest this is a dominant even-strength time. They’re running 60%+ in both Corsi and expected-goals, and lead the league in both. They give up the least amount of attempts per game, and are 4th in xGA/60 as well. If their shooting-percentage were to curve up in any way, this is a team poised to rocket up the standings. But it seems like we say that every year and the Canes still end up just south of a tropical depression.

One thing that might keep that from happening is the Canes just don’t have a premier scorer on the roster. Sebastien Aho might claim to be one on more days than not, and Andrei Svhechnikov was drafted to be that but is 18. And that’s about it. This team is never going to shoot the lights out, which might betray their possession-dominance. This is why they’re the front-runner to relieve the Leafs of their William Nylander conundrum. They desperately need someone of that quality and have the wealth of blue-liners to make that happen.

The other constant virus that brings the Canes down is goaltending, and that’s no different this year. Scott Darling started the year injured and in his two games back has been iffy. Neither Petr “Try Try Try To Understand He’s A” Mrazek Man or Curtis McElhinney, even with the statue of him going up in Toronto at the moment, have grabbed the job with two hands in Darling’s absence. They’ve kept an opponent under three goals just once in the past six, and that was to the Islanders who are similarly bull-ass-and-shovel disabled. And seeing as how they shoot, three goals is about the number they can’t overcome.

So yeah, on the surface this could really look bad if it goes sideways on Colliton tonight. But the Canes are the exact kind of team that Quenneville’s Hawks found to be a nightmare the past two years. They’re fast and play high-pressure, and there’s no give in that speed anywhere in the lineup. Q’s methods were undone by teams like this. It comes too early to find out if Colliton has better answers, but the Hawks won’t get anywhere if they can’t figure it out against teams like this. The good thing is the Canes lack the firepower to consistently punish you for mistakes or simply being on the receiving end of a possession-mauling, nor can they keep you out from the limited chances they surrender. How the Hawks surpass the Canes forecheck will give you an idea of where we’re headed with Colliton at the wheel.

That’s where the Hawks will likely get THE NEW ERA off to the right start tonight. Corey Crawford getting back to the first couple appearances of the year, and their superior scoring talent burying the fewer chances they get at a better rate than the Canes do with the higher amount they’re certain to have.

Whatever you thought the past was, it’s gone now. This is where the Hawks pivot, for better or worse. You can’t say you’re not curious.

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Game #16 – Hurricanes vs. Hawks Spotlight: Rod The Bod

By Sam Fels November 8, 2018 1907 0

In some ways, the Carolina Hurricanes vacant coaching job was an odd one. It seems easy on the surface. They haven’t made the playoffs in 10 years, they hadn’t been close to them in just about as long, and anything that gets close would be seen as an improvement and buy any new coach more time and esteem. It’s hardly a pressure-bearing hockey market, and there’s certainly a few pieces around those parts that you would think any candidate could improve upon.

And yet, under the surface, there didn’t seem to be a lot of places the Canes could go. Under previous coach Bill Peters, metrically the Canes were one of the better teams around for years. They always ran a top-five Corsi-percentage, and generally were ok in expected-goals. While those don’t automatically lead to wins, it’s about the only thing a coach and team can control and are generally good indicators of where your results are going to go.

What undid Peters was never having a goalie that wasn’t turning into surrealist paintings in the crease, and a lack of genuine finishers in their top-six. That didn’t appear like it was going to change this season. Scott Darling was still here, and Petr Mrazek or Curtis McElhinney weren’t exactly causing Homer-esque sagas to be written about them (well actually they are in Toronto about the latter but that’s what they do up there, other than store their own urine in jars and then film videos in front of them). While Andrei Svechnikov projects to be the Canes first, genuine top-line scorer since Eric Staal was young and spritely, it would be a lot to ask of him to be that at 18.

Rod Brind’Amour has found a way.

While it’s only 15 games, somehow “Rod The Bod” has not just improved the Canes’ metrics, he’s vaulted them up and over the mountain. The Canes Corsi-percentage has gone from 54.4% last year to 61.3% this year. Their xGF% has gone from 53.1 to 61.1. These are massive gains for a team that was already on the right side of the ledger. Both lead the league.

What helped to undo Peters was that for all the attempts they generated, he turned all of his d-men into cowboys to the point you could probably here a lot of hootin’ and hollerin’ and spittin’ on the ice, and maybe even a calf or two got loose in the defensive zone. Brind’Amour has been able to quiet that down and give his goalies more of a chance. They give up six attempts per game less than last year, their xGA/60 has gone from 2.29 to 2.11.

He’s also been able to settle down his defense. Getting Dougie Hamilton to play with instead of Noah Hanifin is certainly a nice break. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary has been Justin Faulk. Faulk has been nestled on the second-pairing for a while in Raleigh, and Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin did the mine-sweeping. But under Peters, Faulk had become something of a Tasmanian Devil character, shotgunning everywhere around the ice while not really caring about the vacancies and openings that were developing wherever he wasn’t. This season, Faulk has seen his attempts against down by 10 per game, his goals-against per game cut in half, and his xGA/60 has been cut by 25%. He’s still generating as much at the other end. To be fair, perhaps Calvin de Haan is a more stable partner than a still very young Hanifin, but Brind’Amour has unlocked something here.

However, the Canes are still knee-deep at the bottom of the Metro Division, and that’s because Brind’Amour has run up against one of the same problems. The Canes can’t score. They’re offensively agoraphobic, especially that space between the posts. They have the third-worst SH% in the league at 5.8. That’s way worse than their barely-7% of last year. And you can coach whatever system you want, but there just aren’t any natural-born finishers here. Maybe Aho? He’s playing center now and not in the same finishing positions. Svechnikov will get there one day, but that day isn’t today. And that’s about it.

Still, all Brind’Amour has to hope for is getting back to that 7% number from last year, which isn’t even that good. Given the amount of shots the Canes are generating at evens and the improvement from last year, that low SH% would see them average 2.8 goals at evens per game. For frame of reference, that would ranks 6th in the league, right next to Tampa’s 2.81 per 60 at ES.

Waiting for the percentages to even out has been a favorite pastime in Carolina recently. But now they just need them to rebound to the still-unlucky level they’ve been, and they could shoot up the standings.

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