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Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Spotlight: The Return Of Mjolnir

By Sam Fels March 11, 2019 1472 0

This won’t make for easy reading for Hawks fans. We aren’t here to tell you what you want to hear.

We’ve made the case all season that if there were a “Rod Langway” Award, that is if the best defensive defenseman were given an award along with or in place of the Norris–where the d-man who just accumulates the most points wins–, then Niklas Hjalmarsson would probably collect it. In a season where the Hawks have struggled so completely defensively, that can be painful to admit.

Let’s go over the numbers again. Hammer starts the 5th-highest percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone among blue-liners in the league. But whereas most of those d-men are merely trying to build a ditch and just let not disaster strike, Hjalmarsson and his partner Oliver Ekman-Larsson have been able to push the play the other way as well as anyone even though they have the farthest to go. Even with the dungeon shifts, Hjalmarsson has the ninth-best relative xGF% in relation to his team in the league. When it comes to just goals-against, Hammer has the best mark relative to his team in the league. Even though he starts in his own zone as much as anyone, he’s hardly giving up any chances. He’s the ultimate tease.

The temptation is to toss the responsibility onto OEL, as he is one of the better puck-movers in the league. And some of OEL’s numbers do improve away from Hammer’s while the latter’s sink. They collect a 51.3% Corsi-share together, where OEL is at 52.4% without Hammer and 50.4% vice versa. However, it’s the opposite when it comes to actual shots, further showcasing how Hjalmarsson limits chances. OEL’s scoring chance-percentage is actually worse away from Hjalmarsson, and Hjalmarsson’s high-danger chance share is a few points higher away from OEL than it is when they’re together. Hammer is helping OEL just as much as the other way around, which is certainly the big reason the Coyotes made this trade in the first place.

That shouldn’t be an indictment on Connor Murphy, though some will take it as such. Hammer looked as off the pace as anyone in 2017 while the Hawks were getting aerated by the Predators. The thought was after three long playoff runs, the miles on the odometer had taken a toll that was just not going to be undone. Perhaps Duncan Keith‘s wear was having a greater effect on Hammer than could be realized, which has been borne out in subsequent seasons.

It was thought that Hjalmarsson’s style of being more stationary, more physical and taking literally thousands of flung rubber to his body would see him decompose pretty quickly. And it still might. It was thought Connor Murphy could fill the role with greater mobility, and he still might. The signs on the latter are encouraging, as Murphy has had to make do with Carl Dahlstrom and Slater Koekkoek and various other rodeo clowns. But that’s still a very hard sell to a lot of watchers.

As for now, it’s probably just best to marvel at the recovery Hjalmarsson has made and the uniqueness of what he’s accomplishing this season. It’s better to trade a player too early than too late, which is the decision Stan Bowman made. But sometimes when you do that, the payoff doesn’t come for a little longer than you guessed.

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Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Q&A: Catherine Silverman Of The Athletic AZ

By Sam Fels March 11, 2019 1502 0

Catherine Silverman covers the Yotes for The Athletic, as well as working as a goalie expert of In Goal Magazine. You can follow her on Twitter @CatMSilverman.

The Yotes have hung around the playoff picture, and yet they don’t have anyone who has scored over 42 points. Is this all or mostly Darcy Kuemper‘s resurgence?

So, let me preface this as saying that I think that Darcy Kuemper has been a really solid part of the team this year. He’s had his moments that put your heart in your throat, but he’s internalized the need to play well for the team’s playoff hopes and gotten the job done.

That being said, I think that the biggest contributor to their success has been their scoring depth. They don’t have anyone over 42 points, but they have 11 players with 20 or more points and 10 players with 10 or more goals. In comparison, the Blackhawks have a 96-point getter, but also only have 10 players with 20 or more points — and they only have eight players with 10 or more goals. It’s why the Dallas Stars have a 61-point player in Tyler Seguin, but are still hanging around Arizona; they only have five players with 10 or more goals.

While the more top-heavy teams live and die by the success of their stars, Arizona has been getting effective middle-six production from… well, everyone. Add in their injuries (if you project players like Schmaltz, Richardson, Galchenyuk, and Grabner onto an 82-game season, they’d all be sitting on much higher point totals) and their success makes a lot more sense.

In my opinion

Look, we like Connor Murphy. We may be the only ones, but we’ll hold on. But we can’t help but notice the metrics that Niklas Hjalmarsson is turning in these days. Starting in his own zone most of the time, against the toughest competition, and turning it around. Is that to do with playing with Ekman-Larsson? Because Hammer was starting to turn here before the trade…

I think it has a bit to do with it, but Ekman-Larsson certainly isn’t propping Hjalmarsson up if that’s what you’re insinuating. Isolated on his own, Nik has been one of Arizona’s best players all year; he’s looking incredibly effective, and very much like the player that Chicago initially signed to his current deal.

It’s possible that the rest from no playoffs last year combined with missed time for injury legitimately gave him enough rest to refuel his tank. Whatever it is, though, he’s looking fantastic.

We were also Alex Galchenyuk fans and though Arizona got the better of that deal. He’s produced ok, been hurt a bit, but maybe not yet what we were thinking. What is he to someone who watches him far more?

He’s been exactly what the team traded for. After missing the start of the season for injury, he had a bit of a slow start — understandable when coming in with the season in full swing on a brand-new team.

In the last few months, though, he’s been one of their best players. He’s excellent on the power-play, has 15 goals and 36 points in 57 games (which would be 43 points if he’d missed no time, putting him over that 42-point threshold), and has won 46 percent of his face-offs — his highest percentage in three years.

Since February 1st, he’s put up seven goals and 11 points in 17 games. If he can continue to perform on the power-play like he has lately — and, frankly, continue to set up plays for Clayton Keller like he has been, even when it doesn’t get him a point on the board — he’ll continue to prove to be a fantastic add for the team.

Three points out, game in hand on the Wild, 15 to go. Can the Yotes do it?

Three points out and two games in hand now, since the Wild forgot they were playing tonight. But I’d say at this point, it’s really anyone’s game — meaning that I won’t be putting money on Arizona, but I won’t be surprised at all if they make it either.

Jason Demers is healthy again. Michael Grabner is healthy again. Antti Raanta is getting close. They’ve survived the first of potentially four to six weeks without Derek Stepan, and only lost one game in the process. I think if they put up the kind of performance they did down the back stretch last year, especially with Colorado losing one of their own top-heavy talents and Minnesota and Dallas struggling with consistency, they could easily slip their way in.

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Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Rick Tocchet, We Can Make Ourselves Look Stupid, Thanks

By Sam Fels March 11, 2019 1566 0

We reveled, perhaps a bit too much in hindsight, in what appeared to be an overmatched Rick Tocchet behind the Coyotes bench last year. He appeared to be an idiot in Tampa when he had to take over for an admittedly giant mess caused by Barry Melrose. And despite what looked like a fair collection of young talent in the desert, the Coyotes finished up the track once again. As the Yotes have been something of a nuisance to everyone–with their constant stability issues and even bigger issues remaining relevant–it was a small relief to at least have something to laugh at. At least they were noticeable in any way.

So much for that. Tocchet has negotiated a host of injuries–only Keller, OEL, and Hjalmarsson have been marked “present” for every game among the prominent players–and still a raft of youth to have the Coyotes on the brink of their first playoff berth in seven years. Sure, some of that is Darcy Kuemper’s renaissance, but the team was able to stick together through their other goalies’ struggles. Even with Stepan and Schmaltz out now, the Yotes sit one point out of the playoff picture.

The Coyotes don’t do anything particularly well, but moving toward the middle of the pack in various categories is a step up for them. Last year they were mostly getting their brains turned into mush. So it might be that Tocchet actually does know what he’s doing, or he learned. And our laughter, as always, goes away…

We still think they’ll need a real coach to take the next step. Then again, so might the Hawks.

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Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels March 11, 2019 1145 0

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Game #69 – Coyotes vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels March 11, 2019 1236 0

Notes: Couple injuries the Yotes are dealing with. Derek Stepan is out from four-to-six weeks, which could be a real problem, and Schmaltz is done for the season after his knee exploded…Which has vaulted Christian Dvorak up from the minors and into the #1 center role. He’s also a LOCAL GUY, so he’s going to score tonight…Alex Galchenyuk, the American with the Russian name who used to be a Canadien, was on a real heater but only has two points in his last six…Kuemper has a .925 in the calendar year of 2019 and won nine of his last 10 starts…oh Vinnie Bag O’ Donuts, how we miss you…Nick Cousins is a rapist…

Notes: After two wins in a row wouldn’t expect too many changes. Sikura had a turnover that led to a goal against in Dallas but looked more in place with 19 and 20 than Hayden did…Forsling returned with Seabrook and nothing turned into a gas leak so expect that to remain, though Koekkoek could slot in for Dahlstrom for no reason…Perlini had six shots against the Sabres but one against the Stars. Yes, Dallas is a far better defensive team but it’s that kind of inconsistency that drives his teams nuts…YARRRRR

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It Has Worked! You’ve Given Everything Away!

By Sam Fels November 26, 2018 3380 0

There are so many layers to this Nick Schmaltz trade. So let’s start on the surface. On the surface, or in a vacuum, or whatever arena you need to evaluate the trade simply on the players involved, it’s not a bad trade. If you go by the “Team That Gets Best Player Wins Trade” model, then the Coyotes probably win it. But they only win it because we don’t know what Dylan Strome is yet.

Strome has played 48 games in the NHL. In his first full season as a pro last year, he was a point per game in the AHL. Now, that doesn’t mean much, even at age 20 which Strome was. Recall Brandon Pirri leading that league in scoring once in his early 20s, and it didn’t get him anything other than the Mike Sillinger Train To Everywhere. Still, it means he’s probably not incompetent. Or has the potential to be not incompetent at the highest level.

The Coyotes clearly saw enough to declare the #3 pick overall just three years ago wasn’t for them. The knocks are clear. He’s not very quick. His skating doesn’t pop. And even at his size, 6-3 and 200 pounds, has been reluctant to assert himself physically. And maybe that’s being kind.

If I were you, I would also allow for the fact that Strome has played all his NHL games under Rick Tocchet, who has proven beyond a doubt that he’s a moron. It’s hard to think of any player in Arizona who has reached beyond what you thought he might be in the year and change under Tocchet. Clayton Keller? Whatever. We have no idea if Jeremy Colliton is any better, but right now I’ll take the hope he can clear a low bar than what I already know Tocchet to be. We basically have to cling to that.

It is not requisite to be fast to be good at center in this league, but it’s getting a harder and harder needle to thread. If Strome is going to get by on his vision and instincts and smarts, and everyone still agrees all of those are at a high-level, his learning curve is a lot longer. Which is fine for a team that has time and a fanbase that has patience. I’m not convinced either of those are true here.

Brandon Perlini has already proven to be a useful piece on a bottom six. He has 31 goals over the past two seasons, is big as well but more importantly skates really well. Right now you could plug him in over John Hayden, Chris Kunitz, Andreas Martinsen and that would be an improvement. Maybe even Dominik Kahun. The Hawks need more forwards who can do something, and Perlini can do something. Get Sikura up here and things are at least improved. And tell Chris Kunitz it’s time to retire.

The Hawks turned one useful forward into possibly two. And they need numbers.

We like Nick Schmaltz. Always have. But we thought it was curious that he was always being mentioned as something of a cornerstone. Nick Schmaltz maxes out as a #2 center. A right-handed Michael Nylander if everything goes right? Nylander spasmed a couple huge seasons as a Ranger, and maybe Schmaltz will have one or two as well. That’s a complimentary player, not a foundational one.

The knocks on Schmaltz are clear. This was the year he’s supposed to grab the brass ring. This is when he was supposed to play above a bridge contract. The Hawks wanted to give him that bridge-plus or more contract. They said so. And most players want to do big things in their free agent year. Most do those things. This is when the chips are actually down and you can rake them toward you.

Schmaltz went backward. He was moved to wing, rightly or wrongly. But there’s no getting around the amount of times he begged off any kind of physical battle. It was happening more and more. That’s how you want to go about seizing a big-time contract? That’s who you are when yo have the most to make?

Schmatlz’s pass-first mentality, to an extent, is acceptable because he has the ability to be a plus-playmaker. But this season, it had gotten to pathological. And he was passing out of spots that didn’t suggest pass-first, but a lack of instincts. I don’t know that ever gets fixed.

Schmaltz has the ability to be a good, not great, defensive center. But he isn’t. Every metric bares that out. Yes, he can steal pucks when he gets to sneak up on someone. But he was much more often overpowered down low, when he even bothered, and his positional sense was iffy. Again, I don’t know that gets fixed. Being a good defensive forward is at least half want-to. Schmaltz has proven to not have much of that.

It’s when you dig deeper on this trade that you get worried. Schmaltz was considered important enough to keep the Hawks’ cap space dry for his extension. And then it took 24 games to go from that to expendable? Either Stan Bowman knew this was a possibility and this quarter of a season just confirmed that, or he’s using an awfully small sample size. Neither is encouraging.

To be fair, the window to trade Schmaltz isn’t that big. You only have 40 more games or so before the deadline, and maybe he plays even worse and lowers his value even more. But if trading him was even a possibility, meaning the Hawks weren’t completely sold on him, what deals did they miss out on this summer when his value would have been higher? Either Stan Bowman was lying to you, or he can’t judge the talent on his team anymore. It’s like one of the final scenes in “The Rock.” “So they know we’re bluffing? Oh great, so we’re incompetent.”

Schmaltz becomes the second “piece” mentioned this summer to make his way to the Valley Of The Sun. Vinnie Hinostroza was another who we were told after last season that Stan wanted to keep around and be the support system for one last push from the Core Five. Only Alex DeBrincat remains.

Which makes you skeptical about what the Hawks are really going to get from whom they’re pushing now. Adam Boqvist, Ian Mitchell, Nicholas Beaudin?. We’re already raising a people’s eyebrow about Sikura and Ejdsell, without giving up. But when was the last time the Hawks developed a real, genuine d-man. Nick Leddy? Jury’s is very much out on Henri Jokiharju.

On this roster now, other than the Core Five this regime had nothing to do with, the only player you build around that has come through the system is Top Cat. Anyone else who might have has been traded for various reasons, but without much in return. What makes you think any of this is going to change?

It appears more and more that here is no plan, and Stan is going to keep throwing things at the wall under his Core Five until something works. Which is usually the last act of a GM on his way out. You have to wonder how many more flings he’s got.

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Game #6 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Preview: Come Inside Where It’s Ok

By Sam Fels October 18, 2018 1865 0

vs.

RECORDS: Coyotes 1-4-0 Hawks 3-0-2

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

YOUNG GIRL THEY CALL THEM THE DESERT DOGS: Five For Howling

Well, tonight got a touch more interesting, didn’t it?

No point in waiting around. Tonight marks the return of one Corey Crawford to the Hawks crease, and he’s bringing all sorts of actual hope and expectation with him. While the start for the Hawks has been tremendous fun, it hasn’t carried any feeling of a sea change or entrenched positive vibes/hope. It’s just been kind of empty entertainment. But the return of Crawford makes all of that a real possibility. Don’t fool yourself, he is that good and he is that important.

That’s if he’s full-strength, and the worry or skepticism of that is basically in a blinking-sign-over-the-Kennedy stage. At camp it was suggested he might need a game or two in Winnebago County to knock off some ring rust. That has been scrapped, either by how good he’s looked in practice or by need or by both. We still don’t know that a stiff breeze or any kind of contact isn’t going to put him back on the shelf, and if he goes back on the shelf there’s a real worry that it might be for good. And of course, it’s been 10 months since he’s played, so even if he’s sharp and even if he’s completely clear of his brain injury problems, there has to be some feel to be gained back. He’s not going to be Crow just yet, unless it’s by some miracle or he’s Wolverine.

There’s also the question of how Crow is being handled. There’s been an odd and uncomfortable back and forth between he and the team for months now. I want to say that since camp opened they’ve let Crow call the shots here, but just yesterday you had Quenneville saying, “We’ll see how he feels in the morning but we expect him to play.” Is that because Crow expects that or because they do and he’s going along with it? With the Hawks it’s hard to know. You don’t want to feel like the team is pushing him back at a slightly faster pace than he would like, but you can’t say for sure they aren’t either.

On the other side, and this has only ever been a theory of mine, but with this type of injury and recovery I wonder if you don’t know if you’re 100% until you get out there. Like, he’s been dealing with stuff for so long that marked improvement could be mistaken for total improvement, just because it’s better than where you’ve been. Again, Crow and the Hawks might not know until he gets out there and tries. That’s what happened with Jonathan Toews many years ago when he was dealing with this. He came back for the playoffs, he thought he was fine, and then admitted later he didn’t really feel all the way back until the summer. We’ll all find out together.

It may seem like a soft-landing for Crow to debut against the Coyotes, but looks can be deceiving. Yes, the Yotes only have one win. Yes, they haven’t scored an even-strength goal yet. But it’s not the process’s fault. Arizona has simply crushed the opponent in every game, possession-wise. In every game they’ve carried at least a 54% Corsi-percentage. Their expected-goal percentage over five games is 52.3%. But like a night with far too much whiskey, they can’t finish. Like, at all. They have three goals in five games, two on the power play and one short-handed.

At some point though, all that possession and chance-generation is going to count. This isn’t a team completely bereft of scoring touch, though the injury absences of Alex Galchenyuk (The American With The Russian Name Who Used To Be a Canadien) and Christian Dvorak aren’t helping. Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome are where you’d look first. Derek Stepan is starting to get up there and was never what he was billed as but he’s far from helpless. Michael Grabner has gotten very rich off scoring 25 goals that no one can remember. It’s hardly a murderer’s row, but again, they’re doing most things right.

And they should get goaltending. Antti Raanta has had a slowish start to the season, but has been marvelous the past two seasons when healthy. There were even some stumping him as a dark-horse, boxcars-paying Vezina candidate. Might want to pump the brakes on that, but he will improve from his current. .903 SV%.

The defense has been good too, as the Yotes have only surrendered 11 goals in five games. Jakob Chychrun is out injured, but Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jason Demers, our lost son Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Kevin Connauton make for a competent at worst unit.

As for the Hawks, aside from the Crawford apparition the lineup stays the same. They only threatened Brandon Saad with a scratch, but he stays in. If he is a ghost tonight, then he might be staring at the pressbox for one or both of the games this weekend. So don’t do that. Everything else is as is.

Perhaps this is the beginning of something real. Perhaps it’s just a false dawn. But it’s definitely more lively than a normal tilt against Arizona in October would have been.

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Game #6 – Coyotes vs. Hawks Spotlight: Is OEL A “Yeah, But Who Gives A Sh*t” Guy?

By Sam Fels October 18, 2018 1698 0

We used to spend a lot of our time, an alarming amount, devising trades to get our favorite players to the Hawks. Most of that time was devoted to Jarome Iginla back in the day. Darnell Nurse is another. This list could go on.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson made quite a few appearances in those fantasies. While he might not be the best skater in the league, he is certainly the most pleasing to the eye. To go along with his ever so smooth stride that just makes you weak in places you can’t be weak in, he has keen passing vision and the sense to run a power play from the point. He’s potted 20+ goals a couple times, so he had a good shot that he can get through. He’s managed 39 or more points (or that pace in the case of 2013) seven straight seasons. The underlying numbers are terrific. And he’s still somehow only 27.

And yet, the Coyotes always suck. So one has to wonder…do you have to give a shit about Ekman-Larsson?

To be sure, the Coyotes utter incompetence since 2012 doesn’t have much to do with OEL as it does their inability to put any talent around him, or all the trust they put in Mike Smith after whatever rabbits foot/horseshoe/monkey’s paw he had lodged in his colon in 2012 fell out and sunk the whole operation. There’s always been a “project” and a “plan,” but it never seems to get off the whiteboard. Everybody’s got a plan… as Mike Tyson told you.

You can’t help but wonder if OEL was THAT good, the Coyotes would have at least sniffed the playoffs somewhere around here. Erik Karlsson has certainly dragged not that much more to relevance. Ok, OEL isn’t Erik Karlsson. Who is? And he’s not going to be paid like him, as he signed on for an extension that will pay him $8.2M until 2025, whereas Karlsson will sign for something with eight digits. Fair, fine.

Digging in, OEL’s has always lifted what’s around him, no matter how much septic run-off it’s been. He’s run a relative-CF% of over 4.5% three times in the past six years, and consistently is above his team-rate. His relative-xGF% has consistently risen above those around him as well, including a ridiculous +9.74% in ’15-’16. But again, it didn’t matter.

Maybe it’s just the Coyotes haven’t had anyone to consistently finish the chances that OEL is either creating or providing the platform for. This is a team that had Radim Vrbata as a leading scorer as recently as two seasons ago. A d-man has led them in scoring in four of the past six seasons. No one has eclipsed Clayton Keller‘s 65 points from last year in that time. Clearly, OEL is the one standing around exclaiming, “I’m surrounded by assholes!”

OEL’s importance though can be debated. The last two Cup champs haven’t really had a #1 d-man to speak of. The first version of the Penguins one had Kris Letang, but not much else. This is in stark contrast to how the Hawks, Kings, and Bruins went about things. The Caps basically had four #2-3 d-men in their run last year, and the Knights couldn’t even claim that.

Maybe that’s an aberrations, and there are certainly a lot of ways to skin a cat. The game is moving toward a more forward-heavy system, where d-men are just asked to get the puck out to the neutral zone instead of carrying it themselves or passing it directly to someone. Are OEL’s skill going to be as valued going forward?

That’s hard to judge. The Predators have built through the blue line and got a conference championship and a Presidents’ Trophy out of it. They very well might have gotten a Cup out of it if their goalie hadn’t upchucked a kitten at the worst possible times in those playoff runs.

Still, one wonders if OEL has true, #1, foot-in-the-ass-of-the-world potential in him, if the Coyotes ever become relevant again. If he did, you feel like you would have seen it. Maybe we will in the coming years as Strome, Keller, Chychrun, and others start to finally develop. The Yotes had better hope so, otherwise they’re going to have to pay someone on top of Ekman-Larsson’s haul. And that can get itchy for a team that has an internal budget.

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