Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Drop Two Of Three To Reds: It’s Not Only The Chili That’s Annoying

By Sam Fels 1235 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 3, Reds 1

Game 2 Box Score: Reds 6, Cubs 5 (10)

Game 3 Box Score: Reds 4, Cubs 2

It’s pretty impressive to go a month without losing a series. Nothing lasts forever. It seems like losses in Cincinnati are just a little more annoying than the others, though. The Reds aren’t really a last-place team, especially considering the starters they threw at the Cubs this week. All three were tight games, and a couple mistakes here and there cost the Cubs. It’s a little daunting considering Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin are lined up against them at the weekend. Hey, that’s baseball. Let’s go through it.

The Two Obs

-This is probably the best run of Kyle Hendricks’s career, though it doesn’t hurt that two-thirds of this have come against some currently pop-gun offenses in Miami and the Reds. He hasn’t really mixed the curve in that much as he wanted to do in spring training, but it hasn’t mattered.

-I’m fairly sure Jason Heyward might suck again. O-for-14 in the series confirms that. Four hits in his last 52 would seem to be another, and you can’t chalk that up to just bad luck.

-To Game 2’s loss, and I’m a little harsh on Carl Edwards Jr. at times. Well most of the time. Ok, all of the time. He’s been all right since coming back, but Eugenio Suarez is basically the one dangerous hitter in that lineup right now other than Dietrich. 2-0 on him is not the time to test out your fastball, as good as Edwards’s can be. It’s just not blow-it-by-anyone good. Yeah, it was high and yeah it may have been even outside, but he’s waiting for that. Break out that curve of yours.

-Tonight’s loss would have been more infuriating if the game had been shortened. And it was mostly on Contreras. Ok, the first fastball that got by him to move the runners to second and third, that’s fine. You’re not expecting a fastball in the dirt. He still tried to pick it, but whatever. But then a curve in the dirt is something you’re supposed to be prepared for. He tried to pick that instead of blocking it, and then now the game is tied and there’s a runner at third.

-I’m actually kind of on board with Schwarber leading off. That spot seems to have broken Heyward and Descalso, and Almora’s never been up for it. If Schwarber’s strength right now is at least getting on base, let’s use that.

-I wasn’t a huge fan of the usage of Montgomery last night either. To me, and this is just an urge to be creative, but anytime you use him should be for multiple innings. He hasn’t thrown in a week anyway. The pen is stripped to the studs, and you want to expose it as little as possible. You get five from Darvish, then see how far Monty can go. That’s one less time you have to use Ryan or Kintzler or whatever other joker is coming out of there right now. You clearly had Monty prepped to follow Darvish, so why not run the playbook from last week back?

-Any outing from Yu that has no walks I’m here for. It’s a good start at least.

Well, Rizzo wasn’t around, and they lost a game in extras. See what goes on in DC.

Onwards…

 

Baseball

So…Is This Cubs Thing Real?

By Sam Fels 1458 0

If you follow me, you know I had a good chuckle at the mass self-defenestrations going on around town when the Cubs started out 2-7. It amounted to not much more than a bad week, and every team has a bad week in baseball. In fact, they have more than a bad week. You’ll recall the 2016 Cubs went and had a bad month before the All-Star break. The 104-win Dodgers of ’17 couldn’t tie their shoes, breathe right, or manage to not fall down for four minutes for basically all of September. Last year’s Red Sox…lost like, four of five once. Anyway, teams do this.

Since then, there has been no team better than the Cubs, and they currently they have the best winning-percentage in the National League and are only behind the Astros overall. Now, the Cubs aren’t 23-7 good. No one is, as that would be a 124-win pace. Currently, they’re on a 104-win pace. They have a +56 run-differential, however you value that, which is tied with the Dodgers for best in the NL and behind the Rays and Astros overall (WAY behind the Astros at +83). By that measure, the Cubs should be exactly what they are, at 25-14. They’re right along their expected axis.

So with a bad week-plus and now essentially a dominant five-six weeks in the book, are they this? I was curious.

The way we can find out, at least partially, is to see if there are irrationally spiking stats to this season. Maybe an abnormal BABIP or average with runners in scoring position or the like. Shall we?

Offensively, the Cubs don’t really lead in any category, they’re just among the best in pretty much every one. They’re 11th in runs overall. They have the second-best wOBA in the NL, one point behind the Dodgers and behind the Astros and Twins overall (again, miles behind the Astros. Seriously, do the Astros ever lose? Should they?) If you go by wRC+, they’re still second but there’s a slightly bigger gap to the Dodgers in the NL. Again, no one’s with in 19 points of the Astros in this category, and you should just start preparing yourself for this season maxing out at losing to Houston in five games in October. That’s like the best scenario right now.

wOBA and wRC+ kind of filter out the noise, but in case you need to know the Cubs are 10th when it comes to BABIP at .301. That mark has always put a team between 10th-15th the past five years, so it’s hardly remarkable. I go to average with runners in scoring position just because that’s kind of a thing that can spike, and also something I laugh at the Cardinals for for years now as in ’15 they hit .308 in that spot as a team, claimed it was just the Cardinal Way instead of just luck, and then haven’t been heard from since. Anyway, the Cubs are hitting .260 right now in that spot, which is right in the middle of the pack. So there’s no spiking there. There’s really no spiking offensively at all.

If you look individually, it’s entirely possible that Bryant and Baez will flatten out at some point, though the latter more than the former because there’s little luck about what Bryant is doing. Contreras too. But Rizzo is due a correction, and Jason Heyward might as well (though don’t count on it). I think the offense is just this good, even if that’s still based on a Schwarber-binge I’ve been waiting for since like 2017 now.

To the pitching side. The Cubs have the second-best ERA in the NL, third-best in baseball, and by the time this series with the Reds is over might take over the NL-lead. If you go by FIP, which takes the defense out of the equation, the Cubs rank 9th overall and 6th in the NL. It seems unfair to eliminate the defense when talking about this, because the Cubs have constructed this really good defensive team and their pitchers won’t stop benefitting from it this season. But we’ll come back to this. If you go by xFIP, which seeks to filter out odd home run spikes, the Cubs are fourth in baseball.

When it comes to luck categories while pitching, the Cubs rank 6th in BABIP against at .275. Now here’s where you might see something of a market correction, but it probably won’t be a large one. The past five years, a team BABIP-against mark of .275 would have been first or second-lowest every year. But, the Cubs the past five years have never had one higher than .287, because of that defense, and that includes an utterly insane .255 against in 2016 (seriously, that team was like seven 1986 Patrick Roys). Because of what the Cubs sport defensively, it’s very hard to imagine that they’re going to stop being close to this efficient in getting outs unless all their starters begin giving up ICBMS all the time.

The Cubs are also benefitting a touch from their left-on-base percentage at 76.6%. But that’s not obscenely high, and basically in line with what they’ve done for the past five years.

So based on league-wide stats, the Cubs basically are this good. There’s nothing weird about them being here right now. Obviously, multiple players could hit slumps, or get hurt, or something that will flatten these out come June or July or August.

As far as comparing them to the 103-win 2016 team, they’re a touch behind but most of that could be explained by variance. They strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more. They have a slightly worse ERA and FIP. Offensively, they’re actually a touch better than 2016 so far. They walk a little more, though strike out a little more. They slug more, get on base a touch better. So by what we know here in town as well, the Cubs are where they should be as well.

So basically, everybody shut up unless you’re going to be happy.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Reds: Joey’s Not Angry Any More

By Sam Fels 1350 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 24-14   Reds 18-23

GAMETIMES: Tuesday-Thursday 5:40pm

TV: NBCSN Tuesday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

THEY ACTUALLY EAT THAT CHILI: Blog Red Machine

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Tanner Roark

Yu Darvish vs. Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana vs. Luis Castillo

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Jason Heyward – CF

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Willson Contreras – C

Daniel Descalso – 2B

David Bote – 3B

PROBABLE REDS LINEUP

Nick Senzel – CF

Joey Votto – 1B

Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Jesse Winker – LF

Yasiel Puig – RF

Derek Dietrich – 2B

Jose Iglesias – SS

Pitcher

Tucker Barnhardt – C

 

After swatting away their closest competitor over the weekend, the Cubs head to the bouncy castle that The Great American Ballpark is to face the NL Central’s wooden-spooners. But this isn’t the normal Reds team you might be accustomed to, and you might not need to prep for the normal diet of 12-10 games that we got on the reg on the river in the past.

For one, the Reds can’t hit for shit, and the main story is that Joey Votto has been a baseball succubus. It’s almost inexplicable. Votto is hitting .206 with a .293 wOBA and a 79 wRC+. He’s walking less than he ever has and striking out more. More worryingly is his line-drive rates and hard-contact are down as well. He’s actually hitting infield pop-ups, which he literally never did before. Judging by his anemic numbers against change-ups and curves, one might get the impression he’s cheating more and more on fastballs at 35. But he’s not even doing that much with those. He could be carrying an injury, and Reds fans are going to have to hope so because he only has 74 more years left on his contract. Still, this is Joey Votto. He’s only a season removed from a 131 wRC+ and two from a 164. You’re going to have to show us more than just six weeks of bad Votto before we believe Votto is bad now.

It wouldn’t be so glaring if the Reds were getting any help from anywhere else, but only Derek Dietrich and Cubs-murderer Eugenio Suarez have bothered to remember to take a bat with them to the plate. Yasiel Puig, who we were all convinced would show up in the NL Central and torture us for a good few years because of course, has been eaten by the BABIP Dragon and is hitting .226. Jesse Winker has been ok, but only that. They were never getting much offense out of short or catcher, and it’s caught up to them. They’ve gotten prime prospect Nick Senzel into center for now, but he’s still got a huge learning curve to manage. They are decidedly pop-gun.

The Reds would be total shit (and then spread on spaghetti as is their way there) if they’re rotation hadn’t been glittering so far, but lucky for them that part of the machine has kept them within touching distance of .500. Luis Castillo, whom the Cubs get on Thursday, has been everything they could have hoped. When you’re striking out 31% of the hitters you see and getting nearly 60% grounders on the contact you do give up, you’re going to slap some motherfuckers upside the head. So has been the tale. Sonny Gray was perhaps just happy to get out of New York, as in terms of FIP he’s been just as good as Castillo. He’s getting far more grounders than he did in pinstripes, and hasn’t seen every fly ball he gives up land in Vinny from Queens’s beer hey yo. Gray has also gone to a cutter far more often this season with his top class curve. Tyler Mahle doesn’t walk anyone, Tanner Roark does but somehow dances around it, and Anthon DeSclafani is striking everyone out. This is not an easy negotiation.

In the pen, Raisel Iglesias hasn’t been terribly happy with his usage, but is still striking out a ton of hitters though been a bit homer-happy. You’re probably not maximizing Iglesias by not using him in something of a Hader-method as they have before, as he’s been a straight closer so far. Amir Garrett and David Hernandez have been heavy K/heavy walk style as well, but have barely given up anything. The uber-jacked Michael Lorenzen and his tight pants are still here as well. The pitching has saved the Reds and if they ever discover someone else who can actually not pass out at bat they could make a serious move in the division. They’re not ready to contend yet, but you can see where they will be one day soon.

For the Cubs, they’ll hope Anthony Rizzo‘s one-day backiotomy is just that. They’ll try and get Darvish to throw strikes against a team that can’t hit, but that didn’t work last time. Getting though on Gray and Castillo the last two games here is going to be a real trick, but that’s what’s ordered.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Sweep Mariners: Stop Playing Pearl Jam

By Sam Fels 1943 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Mariners 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 11, Mariners 0

The thing is I like Pearl Jam. It’s like this..

They’re fine. And I get that Eddie Vedder has nominated himself the #1 Cubs fan forever, even though he doesn’t know who Steely Dan is according to his own goddamn documentary (not that he should, but if you’re going to be music’s self-appointed ambassador, you’d better). But if you’re in Seattle and you’re going to make a big deal of your intro and outro music, try someone else. Off the top of my head I can name a dozen better Seattle bands:

Nirvana, Soundgarde, Dinosaur Jr. Screaming Trees. Green River, Mother Love Bone, Alice In Chains, Mad Season, Mudhoney, Sunny Day Real Estate, Heart, the Sonics. There, done. Try any of them. Honestly.

Oh right… the baseball…

The Two Obs

-Here’s something I like. With Jason Heyward and Willson Contreras cooling off just a bit, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have arrived. Bryant might not have enough to show for it, but last night he managed four balls with an exit velocity over 100 MPH, and Rizzo added two homers in two games, including a big one last night. And let’s not forget The War Bear, who has hit .381 the last week and won Tuesday’s game with a homer that turned the baseball oblong. If the thunder don’t get ya the lightning will.

-It’s been overshadowed by his injury absence, but the Cubs are getting serious work from Jon Lester. He’s got a WHIP of 0.96 on the year. So far this season he’s eschewed his four-seamer for more cutters and more change-ups, and if these are the results I’m here for it.

-You still can’t trust this pen as far as you could throw it collectively, but I’m hoping that just one day off after whatever that was on Sunday just wasn’t quite enough. But then I also think that Brad Brach just sucks, so here we are. I hold out some hope that Brandon Kintzler has some use, and he did get a seriously needed double-play last night. But he also served up one to Edwin Encarnacion that landed somewhere near Victoria.

-Cole Hamels had to get too many outs, and two earned over 5.2 innings should be enough normally. He wasn’t hit all that hard so we’ll just let it pass.

-Good lord are the Mariners helpless defensively. In my shitty high school league the first thing our coach told us was, “Get the ball in play. In this league, amazing things will happen.” That’s the same for the Mariners. We said it in the preview but Encarnacion and Santana should be DHs and Bruce probably should too. But because Dan Vogelbach would probably just eat his glove, they all have to play in the field. This could be a pretty good offense and if King Felix can at least be competent it’s not a hopeless rotation, but they’re going nowhere because they’re never going to catch the ball.

-I will take anything I can get when it comes to Dillon Maples, and striking out the side in the 9th in an 11-0 game is still that. Encarnacion was diving out of the way of strikes. So was everyone else. If he could ever just keep his fastball in the zip code, he’s the doomsday device out of the pen we’ve wanted. Seriously, he could be Josh Hader from last year, if his control wasn’t a Pollock painting.

-I guess that was Javy’s response to being asked if he wants to give up shortstop.

Onwards…

 

–

Baseball

Series Preview – Dodgers vs. Cubs: Here Comes The Boom

By Sam Fels 1357 0

vs.

RECORDS: Dodgers 15-9   Cubs 10-10

GAMETIMES: Tuesday and Wednesday at 7:05, Thursday at 1:20

TV: NBCSN Tuesday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

THINK BLUE: True Blue LA

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Kenta Maeda vs. Jose Quintana

Walker Buehler vs. Cole Hamels

Ross Stripling vs. TBD (possibly Lester, possibly Hendricks)

DODGERS PROBABLE LINEUP

Joc Pederson – LF

Corey Seager – SS

Justin Turner – 3B

Cody Bellinger – RF

A.J. Pollock – CF

Max Muncy – 1B

Enrique Hernandez – 2B

Austin Barnes – C

(note: with lefties on tap, Freese could start at first, Taylor could move into the outfield with Bellinger moving to first, or some combo thereof)

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Jason Heyward – CF

Willson Contreras – C

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Ben Zobrist – RF

(note: Could see Bryant move to right with Bote at 3rd)

If the Cubs had gotten somewhat healthy by getting to face some dregs and drain-scrapings in Arizona and Miami, and to a lesser extent the Angels shorn of Mike Trout, that all changes tonight as the Cubs welcome the National League’s aristocrats in the form of the Los Angeles Dodgers. If you want to know how the Dodgers have ascended to the top of the league’s standings, I’ll refer you to John Paul Jones’s impression of all drummers who were foolishly compared to John Bonham, “UGH. BASH. UGH. BASH.”

The Dodgers are second in the NL in homers to the Brewers. They lead in runs, and only trail the Mariners in all of baseball. They’re second in OBP. First in slugging. First in wOBA. So yeah, they pack something of a punch.

The Dodgers are led by the infuriatingly good and handsome Cody Bellinger, who you’ll never convince me doesn’t have Rohypnol somewhere in his house, who already has 11 homers, is slugging around .900, and is carrying a wRC+ of 252. So don’t pitch to him. Corey Seager has returned from missing all of 2018 and is doing Corey Seager things. Joc Pederson and his moon-face are having a career year, as he’s got 10 homers as well. Even Enrique Hernandez, the one you know as the one you’d like to hit with a tire iron, is slugging .551. There are very few places to hide. Pollock is struggling but has historically killed the Cubs. Tormund Turner hasn’t hit his stride yet but always looks like he’s about to. Austin Barnes seems to be the only breather here. And that’s before they bring Bruce Banner’s brother Chris Taylor off the bench.

What the Dodgers haven’t gotten is the starting pitching they were expecting, but once they do it’s a problem for America. It’s been fine, and certainly good enough when they’re turning every game into pop-a-shot. Walker Buehler has been let down by his defense a bit, has seen an ungodly number of runners score instead of stranded, and his strikeouts are down just a touch. But you’d bet on him figuring it out. Clayton Kershaw isn’t really a descendant of Zeus anymore, but you’d bet on him finding a way to carry a sub-3.00 ERA anyway. Ross Stripling is getting a ton of grounders, Julio Urias has started to look like what they said he would three years ago, Ryu has been even better, and Rich Hill isn’t even around yet to scream and make sure everyone knows just how much he cares. It seems like every season the Dodgers have seven or eight starters and none are worse than a #3. Fuck these guys, seriously.

If there’s one problem area, it’s in the pen. The Dodgers signed Joe Kelly to try and bandage that from last year, except Joe Kelly has always sucked no matter how many lame-ass YouTube videos he comes up with or how much he parades around his ring that the Red Sox were terrified of letting him try and contribute to. Kenley Jansen hasn’t been automatic this season, and neither has human filibuster Pedro Baez. Caleb Ferguson has been the best weapon out of there so far.

For the Cubs, they’re likely to try and stack their lefties against the Dodgers, as the main threats of Seager, Bellinger, and Pederson all hit from that side and with Turner still finding it they don’t have much of a counter. It’s just less bad with a lefty, not advantageous. Lester is eligible to come off the DL for Thursday’s matinee, though that isn’t much of a landing for him. The Cubs will see three tricky-to-tough righties, which means Anthony Rizzo coming in from the cold would be welcome. Of course, when the Cubs get into their pen, and the Dodgers will almost assuredly make sure the starters aren’t around that long, it’s going to be an adventure and a half right into hell.

There probably is no path out of the National League without seeing these guys. Might as well see how you stack up.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From D-Backs: Approaching Suck

By Sam Fels 1319 0

That’s a touch harsh. The Cubs have been playing much better at least since the Pirates were here, though it hasn’t always felt like it. There’s a frustration they didn’t sweep this series as they did the Marlins, but despite Zack Greinke‘s ballooned ERA and HR/FB rates he’s still Zack Greinke and sometimes he’s gonna put it on ya. Robbie Ray should have been easier fodder, but the Cubs got there in the end no matter how uncomfortable it might have been. Which is good, because the fireworks show that is the Dodgers roll in here, and if you were watching the Cubs’ pen through your eyes before, just wait for that Kyle Ryan–Cody Bellinger matchup in the 7th..,.

Let us away…

The Two Obs

-Good Tyler Chatwood starts are in some ways even more infuriating than bad ones. Anyone who says they can’t understand why the Cubs signed Chatwood is just being willfully ignorant, an asshole, or both. It’s clear what caused the brass to play a hunch. He was easy 94-95 today, that two-seam was boring in on righties and everything had sink. Nine groundouts of his 18 outs, and a couple double-plays after walks that had the Wrigley faithful groaning (probably a touch unfairly). One start does not a revival make, but this is what the Cubs thought they were getting. If Chatwood can keep this going, there are some really creative possibilities going forward. But we’ll have to wait on that. At least Lester’s return isn’t as desperate as it might have been yesterday.

-On the other side, I can’t imagine the Cubs are ok with Yu Darvish throwing just two pitches. And if they are, it would be strange. According to the charts, it says Darvish deviated between his cutter and his fastball, but they look awfully similar. He’s only combining that with his slider, which he only occasionally choking back to make into a curve. His splitter has disappeared. And when he can’t locate his fastball, which he hasn’t really all year, there’s nowhere for him to go. He still held the Cubs in but he’s capable of so much more of a repertoire.

–David Bote got the game-winner today off of a breaking pitch. Wonders never cease.

-We’ll have to do a deep dive on Kris Bryant this week, because I’m struggling to remember when he’s strung hard-hit balls together.

–Anthony Rizzo had two hits and he’s still got an unsightly average, and on the broadcast even Jim Deshaies was compelled to mention his BABIP. But his line-drive rate is down, though his hard-contact rate is up. He’s also going the opposite way far more, perhaps sick of the sight of the shift gobbling up anything he has to offer. Maybe April just isn’t his thing.

-So much for worrying about Kyle Hendricks. And so much for him trying to integrate a curve. Maybe later, Cerebral Assassin.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Stomp Some Guys: I See Your Sister In A Sunday Dress

By Sam Fels 1343 0

Game 1 Boxscore: Cubs 7 – Marlins 2 

Game 2 Boxscore: Cubs 4 – Marlins 0

Game 3 Boxscore: Cubs 6 – Marlins 0

I suppose, if I were just taking the Cubs words at face value, the last game of this series would be the kind of one they referenced at the end of last year or in spring training this year as the ones that got away from them last season. Where they lost focus or didn’t quite close out the past couple seasons like they did in 2016. They’ve said it, but I’m not sure how much I buy it when you put together 95 wins with a banged-up roster. But whatever, if they say it they probably believe it to an extent. So the Cubs didn’t let up, didn’t check out against a team full of future gym teachers and possibly current squeegee-men. Cole Hamels certainly wasn’t in any giving mood, and the Cubs have their first series sweep of the year and are looking at being .500 with a series win against Arizona.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-These are the kinds of trips through the rotation that the Cubs envisioned when this all started. Darvish still couldn’t quite there, as it should not take 96 pitches to get 17 outs against whatever is masquerading around as Marlins these days. But hey, it was only two runs. I don’t think I’m a big fan of him talking about maxing his velocity when he’s coming off an arm injury and what makes him special is the diversity of his pitches, but at this point I think we’re all just going to take the ride with him and be done with it.

-No such problems with Quintana and Hamels, who are as dialed in as it gets. Q spotted that change-up he’s been saying he wants to use more, though not as much as he probably will in the future. Hamels, being the savvy vet that he is, knew he could just pour everything into the strike zone and are this collection of extras to do their worst. Winner winner chicken dinner.

-The Cubs still haven’t gotten anything out of Bryant and Rizzo and are second in the NL in runs. Tell me why you’re paranoid again?

-While his signing was derided simply because it was the only one the Cubs made for the lineup this winter, Daniel Descalso is hell of an upgrade on Tommy La Stella so far. In fact, even if Ian Happ were to get hot I can’t quite figure out where he’d go right now anyway. And no, I don’t want to see him in center or right. Which means, as we thought all along, it might come down to a debate between him and Schwarber in left. But that’s not a problem for now.

-Contreras only had one hit today. What a bum.

-Please don’t make me start believing in David Bote. I’ve been here too many times.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Brewers: Now Is Not The Time

By Sam Fels 1306 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 1-5   Brewers 6-1

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: WGN Friday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

THE GOOD LAND: Brew Crew Ball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jose Quintana vs. Brandon Woodruff

Cole Hamels vs Corbin Burnes

Kyle Hendricks vs. Zach Davies

Probable Cubs Lineup

1. Ben Zobrist (S) RF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Javier Baez (R) SS
5. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
6. Willson Contreras (R) C
7. Albert Almora (R) CF
9. Jason Heyward (L) RF

 

Probably Brewers Lineup

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) SS
Everything is wrong. Everything is ruined. So why not face the team that’s given your whole front office and fanbase a psychosis when you’re at your absolute lowest? Maybe it’s a weird kind of immersion therapy. Have the booze nearby.
Despite how Cubs fans have acted all winter, the Brewers and Cubs were exactly as good as each other last year. In fact, the Brewers needed a historic finish over the last month to even catch the Cubs, rather than the Cubs “losing” it. But the difference in winter maneuvers is probably what has everyone on edge. The Brew Crew identified a weakness, catcher, and went and got just about the best possible solution to it in Yasmani Grandal (who at the moment has only succeeded in torpedoing my fantasy team, but that won’t last forever). And this wasn’t a bad lineup to begin with.
Of course, the Brewers main weapon is the bullpen. Josh Hader was so bored with just striking out everyone that he spent the first week seeing how long he could get away with throwing just fastballs. He threw his first breaking ball on Wednesday, after something like 48 straight fastballs. He’s striking out two per inning anyway. The Brewers won’t miss Cory Knebel when they just make Hader throw with his right hand on his off-days. Alex Wilson and Matt Albers are also carrying ridiculous strikeout rates. Jacob Barnes has been the only flashpoint so far out of there, and you can bet they’ll find more. It’s what they do. Knebel will be a miss, but if they’re the ones who end up with Craig Kimbrel, the self-defenestration count around town is going to quadruple.
I still don’t buy the Brewers rotation, but I suppose when it doesn’t have to do much more than four or five innings, you don’t have to buy it. Jimmy Nelson has yet to return and he’s something of the trump card. If he’s what he was, that gives them at least a genuine #2 starter in this league and a day off from throwing four innings for the pen. Brandon Woodruff impressed out of the pen last year, but he and Peralta’s record suggest they walk too many guys to ever be dominant. You’ll never convince me Jhoulys Chacin isn’t Jhoulys Chacin, and Zach Davies’s Kyle Hendricks impression has only ever looked good against the Cubs. The Brewers do the best they can to take their rotation out of the equation, but it has to sting at some point. At least that’s the hope.
None of this matters if Christian Yelich continues to be a Lantern. A 1.500 OPS so far on the season is pretty much everything you need to know. Mike Moustakas has also hit the ball hard when he’s hit it, and Lorenzo Cain is Lorenzo Cain. Jesus Aguilar has been wielding a pool noodle so far, but I’ll still hide behind the couch every time he’s up. Needles McGee in left also will come up with some annoying, game-changing homer at some point, which he’ll do against the Cubs until he’s 74 (though parts of him will remain in their 20s).
The Cubs are clearly not really equipped to deal with the Brewers at the moment. Jose Quintana has held a voodoo sign over the Brewers since switching sides of town, and he’ll get his first start of the year. Q looked good out of the pen to save Darvish last Saturday, and we’ll see if he means it about incorporating his change far more this season. Maddon’s biggest mistake last year might have been pulling Q in  Game 163 out of fear of a third trip through the lineup, ignoring the facts that Q held down the Brewers all year and he didn’t have a bullpen at that point. Good thing he doesn’t have a pen now and we can see what he’s learned.
The Cubs can claim that things will shake out better with this relief group, but there’s no reason to believe that. Other than Pedro Strop, none of these guys have a track record of sustained success, and it’s here last year where Carl Edwards Jr. broke on Labor Day. You’ll remember the previous inning, Anthony Rizzo had solved Hader for a homer that gave the Cubs the lead and felt like a defining, season-turning moment. Then Edwards turned his curve into performance art and the lead was immediately lost. He’s never recovered, and very well might not ever. There’s nowhere for Maddon to turn until Strop, who has been curiously held for saves that never come. Maybe stop with that?
This being baseball of course, the Cubs could march up there and sweep the Brewers because it’s April and it’s weird and why not? We could use it. Or the Brewers could really rub the Cubs’ nose in it and wouldn’t that make for a comfy home opener the next day? What you got to say then, Theo?