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Game #59 – Capitals vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Timothy Jimothy Leif

By Sam Fels February 17, 2018 2258 0

In a sense, you have to hand it to Timothy Leif. The guy knows when to shoot his shot. It takes unique timing to double your career shooting-percentage in your free agent season. It got Timothy Jimothy an eight-year deal that will pay $5.7 million (cap hit). That’s cashing in at the right time.

Of course, Timothy Leif as returned to Earth this year. He has 12 goals this season, as his 13.4% shooting-percentage is right on the nose of his career mark. This is what he is. Oshie is a 20-25 goal-scorer. And even that’s giving him the best of it. This is his 10th season, and he’s only surpassed 20 goals three times. He’s a second-liner who got the rub of playing with Backstrom and Ovechkin for a while. And that’s ok.

Timothy Jimothy’s reputation is still outsized from an Olympic performance that A) didn’t matter at the time and B) doesn’t matter at all now. A shootout-win in the preliminary round over a Russian team that didn’t have a blue line was hardly worth celebrating. Getting exposed by Canada and then Finland proved that. It doesn’t hurt that Oshie’s photogenic and affable, but again, as a player he’s kind of just there.

As we like to say when he was a Blue, we’re sure he makes engine noises as he skates around the ice. His hair-on-fire style has subsided a bit, he’s become more of a standstill shooter. His metrics are still only ok, though hasn’t fallen as far the team’s. Much like every Cap, he’s turned invisible when the opponent wears black and yellow in the spring. Oshie scored once and in last year’s series, though he had a hat trick and five goals in the ’16 matchup.

But we’re probably not too far away from Caps fans glaring at his contract in spite when they can’t afford to hang onto their window anymore. It’s a story we know well.

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Game #28 – Hawks 2 – Capitals 6: Love Isn’t Always On Time

By Sam Fels December 6, 2017 3219 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

This is going to sound strange. But strange is what we deal in around these parts. The Hawks really weren’t that bad tonight. In fact, for the first two periods, they were pretty good. It’s just that whenever something can go wrong for the Hawks right now, it’s going to horribly. When you have to lean on you backup goalie for three straight games, he’s probably going to let in a softie. So there’s the Caps’ second goal, which changed the outlook of the game. Still, you’d like to see a team like this respond a little better than giving up another one 29 seconds later, but we’ll get to that. Toss in a power play that can’t hit a bull in the ass with a snow-shovel right now, some players that are being asked to do the wrong things, and you get what looks like an ugly loss. The time for consolation is running out quickly. Hockey remains weird, and because of that there’s no guarantee that things will bend back the way that the Hawks play really suggests it should.

-While the second Caps’ goal–The Fels Motherfuck is on a real streak this season–appeared to be the game-changer, really it was the power play in the 2nd period when it was still a 3-1 game. Actually it was two of them. And the Hawks power play didn’t do anything. Like it’s been doing, or not doing I s’pose, all season.

What’s most frustrating is it’s obvious to everyone, and it must be obvious to the players, that the coaches have no idea where to go. Every power play the Hawks try something different. First we had Kane on a point, though moving down to the right half-boards with Saad on the left. But what good does having Saad on the left do? He’s a left-handed shot. The next power play saw Kane on the other side with Schmaltz where he was. A third power play saw the Hawks move two guys below the net.

We see this every game. The Hawks have new personnel or a new look or both on every chance. It doesn’t suggest that they’ve got a lot of plans. It suggests they don’t have any plans, and that translates to the players. If the coaches have no confidence in what they’re putting out there, why would they? And it’s costing them points, because for the most part at evens, the Hawks are where they need to be. Yes, I know, but it’s true.

-The new lines were… well, the new lines. It’s hard to get a read after one game. Toews’s line looked exactly like we thought, didn’t have a role. Schmaltz made some things happen with Top Cat, but they also could get overpowered down low in both zones.

-The problems are still on defense. All of Forsling, Rutta, and Franson got exposed in ways that the coaches simply refuse to see. Rutta and Forsling cannot handle anything but lower competition, but found themselves out against Backstrom’s line a lot of the night. And the Hawks seemed happy to have it that way. And ti’s not the first time we’ve seen that, because Tyler Seguin’s line spent two games making them look like Glass Joe. The Hawks best d-man right now is Connor Murphy, and it’s about time the Hawks start treating him like that.

For the Caps third goal, which made this hill really steep, came from Franson’s inability to recognize danger and his Snuffleupagus-like feet. Keith had pinched down the boards and no forward had covered for him. But Franson has to recognize that, instead he was sinking down into the offensive zone. So when the go-route was thrown for Wilson, he’s never going to catch that. He needs to be a free safety there. He was also slow getting back into position for the Caps’ 5th, trailing Kuznetsov.

You simply can’t keep asking Franson to take anything more than third pairing assignments, if that. The Hawks haven’t discovered gold here where no one else could see it. Three teams have decided that Franson is no better than a #7. There’s a reason for that. Stop thinking you’re geniuses. You’re not.

-While the Hawks certainly controlled the possession game for the first 40, most of it was pretty much restricted to the outside. This is where the annoying “Annette Frontpresence” discussion always rears it’s ugly head. I don’t know that the Hawks lack guys who can get to the net. Panik can’t buy one right now. Anisimov is Anisimov. Bouma and Wingels are what they are. You would think Saad would be another, but he isn’t really, is he? Most of Saad’s goals seem to come on the rush or elsewhere. He doesn’t score as many tips and rebounds as you feel like he should. And this was the problem the Hawks had with him the first time.

It’s an ugly scoreline for sure. And the 3rd period wasn’t pretty. There are serious problems here, but a good portion of it is the Hawks own making. Things have to turn sharpish, but it’s there. At least I think it is.

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Game #28 – Hawks vs. Capitals Preview/Kickabout:The Purge

By Sam Fels December 6, 2017 2129 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 12-10-5 Capitals 16-11-1

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN, because this is such a rivalry and all

HOLLYWOOD FOR UGLY PEOPLE: Japers Rink

In some ways, the Hawks will be looking across the ice at what they were just a year or two ago. Both of these teams are either somewhat or pretty hollowed out from the teams that sat upon the top of their respective conferences year after year. That’s how the NHL wants it. Well, they get it. But whereas the Hawks can at least look up at the banners and say it was worth it, all the Capitals have are the broken glasses, waded up tissues, and the sad ballads of shattered dreams. Both have the hangover and clean-up, only the Hawks had the party.

The Capitals are still in the muck of the Metro Division, where all of four points separates the top six teams. So you can’t say they’re out of it by any stretch. Yet looking beyond simply the record and the points, the foundation the Caps used to be built on appears to be heavy with mildew and rust. By surface measures, this team is middling. They’re 15th in goals per game, and 15th in goals-against per game. You can’t get any more “in the middle” than that.

But the underlying numbers will tell you this team is flying on the wings of fortune and the sun is coming up awfully big in the rearview. They are 25th in CF% and 27th in xGF%. They have the sixth-highest shooting percentage in the league. Now, a team with Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie, Kuznetsov is probably always going to carry a higher than average shooting percentage given the skills of those four. But they’ll need to shoot around 10% to outdo their horrible possession markers.

They’ll also always get plus goaltending, though Braden Holtby hasn’t been at Vezina-level of the past two years. His .919 overall is below the .925 and .922 of last year, and the real mystery is the three shorthanded goals he’s given up already. That doesn’t really affect the whole, it’s just kind of weird.

It’s not hard to see where the copper wiring has been stripped in this house, though. The bottom six, a strength the past two years, has been shorn of Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams, and in their place are some kids or experiments or simply hail-marys. Those six forwards are getting their heads handed to them on a nightly basis, forcing the top six to do pretty much all the work. Through Eller, Beagle, and Connolly the bottom two lines can occasionally land a haymaker, but spend most of their time on the ropes or staring at the lights.

The defense is kind of the same story. The lost Karl Alzner–who kind of sucks anyway–and secret weapon Nate Schmidt. To make up for that, coach Barry Trotz has apparently decided to let John Carlson skate all their minutes. Carlson is averaging 27 minutes a night, by far the most of his career, 4th most in the league, and nearly four minutes per night over his career average. And the thing is, he’s not doing that much with that time. He’s taking on top lines and the hardest assignments, but the best you can say for him is he’s playing them to a draw. Considering he’s anchored to Brooks “Seabrook This!” Orpik, that’s probably the best they can hope for. What the Caps need is more d-men who can clean up after that firefight, and right now it’s just Orlov and Niskanen. And they’re doing ok, though not exactly dominating. There are a couple kids in Christian Djoos and Madison Bowey (yes, I’ve had many a “Madison Boweys” on trips to Wisconsin) on the third pairing. but Trotz would rather light his body hair on fire than play them in a meaningful situation or much at all. Djoos looks promising but he needs to be given the leash to bum-slay so they can get more out of anyone who’s not Alex Ovechkin or Nicklas Backstrom.

Ah yes, Ovie. This team would be pissing up a rope without him. 20 goals already to lead the league. He was split up for a while from Backstrom as Trotz sought to spread out the scoring, but since reuniting they’ve been a terror as usual. And they’re doing this while dragging around Tom Wilson, so maybe we should just hand Ovie the Hart Trophy now simply for that. Wilson has skated most of the season with Backstrom and has two goals. Dear reader, raise your hand if you think you could manage two goals while skating with Backstrom.

This preview has already ran on a bit long, so I don’t know that I can give the bonkers Hawks’ lines the treatment they so deserve. We’ll do so in the Lineups page. Needless to say, none of them make goddamn sense. The highlight could be keeping Top Cat on the right side in order to keep Lance Bouma on the left. Or it could Toews centering Hayden and Hartman in a “Guess What This Line Does For A Dollar!” set up. I can’t decide.

But we all know this will last a period at most, and the Hawks will likely look like shit during it. Then Q will switch back to what it was before, and the players will have a look on their face of, “Why did we bother with that horseshit?” for about five minutes and then they’ll get to playing.

This is a cozy part of the schedule, as the Caps are no great shakes before home dates with the Sabres, Coyotes, and Panthers who all blow. That’s before the Hawks have to go to sudden juggernaut-bitch Winnipeg, so these eight points are pretty crucial before that and a six-game road trip that wraps around Christmas.

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Game #28 – Hawks vs. Capitals: Spotlight – The Last 600 Man?

By Sam Fels December 6, 2017 2800 0

We’ve been over and over the treasure that Alex Ovechkin is. We’ve documented how he’s a unicorn when it comes to the amount of shots on goal he generates. How he’s probably under-appreciated even if he’s one of the top ten players of all times. We’ve pointed out how given the current scoring environment, he’s put up some of the greatest goal-scoring seasons of all-time. And yet it feels like because of his team’s inability to win more than seven playoff games at a time, which he only takes so much responsibility for, we still don’t have the esteem for what’s really going on here.

So here’s another angle: What if Ovechkin is the last 600-goal scorer we see for a while? Maybe ever?

Ovie is currently 22 short of the 600 mark, and given that he’s already piled up 20 this year in just 28 games, you wouldn’t bet against him to get it this year. Even if he were to go completely cold, and wouldn’t everyone love a place where 35 goals is considered “cold,” Ovie will get there in the first month of next season.

The only other active player anywhere close is Patrick Marleau at 518. But needing 82 goals would see Marleau having to put together probably three more 22-25 goal seasons, depending on how this one finishes, which would have him scoring 20+ goals past the age of 40. Only Teemu Selanne has managed that in recent history, so you wouldn’t bet on it.

Other active leaders like Rick Nash or Marian Gaborik… you can forget it. Sidney Crosby is 206 goals short. You could see Sid managing to average 20 goals per year for another ten years, given he’s only 30, and he probably has a few 30-goal seasons left. But if the miles catch up? Or the injuries pop up again? He’s really the only other one out there now you’d fancy.

Steven Stamkos has 332 goals right now at age-27. That leaves him 268, and projecting him for nine more 30-goal seasons when he’s 36 isn’t all that far-fetched. Or bleed out some 20-goal seasons until he’s 38 or 39, and given his Gary Roberts-inspired fitness, you could see that. You could also see him playing like three more full seasons given his injury history and not get there.

Sure, the younger players in the league are the ones you’re screaming about. Run CMD’s MVP season saw 30 goals, and he has a career 57. He’s only 21 obviously, but he’s 543 short. That’s 40-goal seasons for 13 more seasons. It’s 18 30-goal seasons. There have only been 37 40-goals seasons in the past 10 years. It’s just not the environment for it. There were just three last year.

Auston Matthews? Same spot as McDavid but a year behind. He’s more the pure scorer, so you could see him taking a serious run at it. But again, he’s looking at piling up 30-goal seasons until he’s 38 to get there. Or 40-goal seasons until he’s 33, or something in between.

Patrick Kane needs 305 goals to get there, which means he’d need to be scoring 30 a year until he’s 40. As he only has three 30-goal seasons on his resume, you’d tend to doubt it.

Maybe the real question we should be asking is will Ovechkin be the last 700-goal scorer? Almost certainly yes. If Ovie gets the 600 this year, he would only need 100 more at the spry age of 33. Surely Ovie can find 20-goal seasons until he’s 38, if he wants to play that long. Seeing as how he’s never scored less than 30, it probably won’t take him that long. But who else is coming up with that? Averaging 40 goals for over 17 years? Again, there have only been 37 40-goal seasons in the past ten seasons.

Like 500 wins in baseball, this is a mark we might never see again. Maybe finally then we’ll realize what we have in Ovie.

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Game #28 – Hawks vs. Capitals: Q&A With Jason Rogers

By Sam Fels December 6, 2017 2334 0

Jason Rogers is a writer for JapersRink.com, as well as a few other outlets. You can follow him on Twitter @HeyJayJRogers.

The Caps had their own salary cap purge in the summer. Williams, Johansson, Alzner, Shattenkirk, Schmidt all headed for the exit. Which has stung the most so far this season?

Boy, it depends on when you’re asking. Early on, it was defenseman Nate Schmidt. Ol’ Smiley Face was a third-pair blueliner while in Washington, and struggled to even earn a sweater from Coach Barry Trotz over crumbling Methuselah Karl Alzner last season. With fully half of the defensive starters now gone from last season, you might say depth has been a problem, in the same way that it is a problem for sinking ships. Rookies have stepped up admirably, and the new young core seems to be beginning to gel, but sprinkle in another injury here or there and this Capitals defensive could be in major trouble.

There was some furor over Barry Trotz splitting up Backstrom and Ovie for a period of time. Is there anything more here than just trying to spread scoring?

That’s basically all it was. With Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams (two thirds of last year’s second line) gone to other clubs, scoring was thinner than a svelte ski for a while there. They’ve been reunited for a couple games now, and, well, Alex Ovechkin once again leads the NHL in goals. It’s hard to oversell how historically good the set-up-and-finish pair of Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin for the last decade, but both of these guys are headed to Hall of Fame one day, and they’ll each have the other to thank.

Maybe due to the departures on D, John Carlson is playing about four minutes more per night than he ever has. Any concern that he’ll be paste by April?

Yes. Oh, God, yes. It’s one of the hottest topics in DC right now. Can John Carlson sustain this level of ice time? Can Barry Trotz really keep using Carlson like this? Are the other defensemen made of balsa wood and paper mache or something? Carlson struggled in his expanded deployment early on this season, but he’s coalesced into a fairly reliable emergency cork for this team. Barry Trotz has a reputation, deserved or not, for being especially unwilling to give young players ice time in order to develop when he has more experienced veterans, perhaps with lower ceilings, available now. What you’re seeing now on the Capitals blue line is this simple face: Barry Trotz trusts John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, and, lately, Dmitry Orlov. He is learning to trust Christian Djoos. He does not trust Madison Bowey or Brooks Orpik.

Lars Eller is having his best offensive season so far. Just a different role or different game?

Lars Eller is a stone cold stud. He is a possession gremlin, and he makes more offensive things happen in Washington than a skeezy lobbyist. Last year, his line (along with Andre Burakovsky and Brett Connolly) was the very best possession line in hockey for most of the season. He’s getting opportunities this year, but he’s also being used like a fine, Danish glue to hold the offense together wherever it seems weakest. But keep an eye on his hands; the dude can make plays.

Eller, Carlson, Beagle, and Wilson are all free agents after the season. If the window didn’t shut last year, is this going to be it for this group or can they keep everyone together?

Ah, the seventy-five million dollar question. Lars Eller may have played his way out of the Capitals’ tax bracket the last two years. Someone will offer him more than Washington would like to, but he should be a priority for them.

Jay Beagle, what can you say: the front office loves him. He’s a “glue guy.” He’s consistently a league-leader in faceoff percentage, and he’s their most trusted penalty killer. Would the Capitals like to try and replace him? No, certainly not. Can they replace a career fourth-line forward? Yes, of course.

Tom Wilson, they will have to take a look in the mirror and ask themselves some tough questions. With all of the penalties, and the suspensions, and the general lack of offensive production, is this grinder and penalty killer – and former first-round draft pick – still worth his salary when the purse strings are this tight? Could they get a league-minimum guy who can do what Tom Wilson does, and then some, perhaps? For me, I say yes, because I know for a fact that Daniel Winnik exists.

John Carlson will be the most interesting of all. At the end of last season, I would have told you there was no chance Carlson would be on the Capitals at the end of this one. Now, though, will his unavoidably praise-worthy, improved level of play – in killer minutes, being asked to absorb killer assignments – he may have made himself too valuable for Washington to let go.

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