Everything Else

Now Calm Down, Jeremy-Diddily-Diddily-Diddily-Diddily – Colliton’s Future and Weathering the Storm

By John Pullega 2640 0

Stats gathered from NaturalStatTrick.com, NHL.com, hockey-reference.com, unless otherwise linked.

Imagine you’re Jeremy Colliton. You’re young, allegedly great at communicating, and coming off a deep Calder Cup run. You’re the lad in waiting behind a legendary coach who looks to have lost the room, and who’s certainly and ironically fallen out of the Brain Trust’s circle of trust. When the front office drops the hammer on the Joel Quenneville Era—and along with it the groin-grabbing ecstasy of a dynasty bygone—they turn to you, the 33-year-old, out-of-the-box hire who’s had success everywhere he’s gone.

Then you go 12–18–6. And now, the question is, “Who’s to blame,” or, more specifically, “Is Colliton a long-term answer?”

Before we dive asslong into the why and why not regarding whether Colliton’s the answer, let’s get a few things out of the way. First, 36 games do not a coach make, but it does give us an idea for what a coach can be, so consider this a halfway review of sorts. Second, despite what Bowman and McDonough wanted you to believe, this team was a fringe wild card team if everything went perfectly, a 70-point team max if not. Third, Colliton has a contract that runs through the 2020–21 season. With these givens in mind, let’s putz around for a proof for both scenarios.

The Case for Colliton as the Answer

1. Time: In a November 25, 2018, interview with Scott Powers, Stan Bowman had this to say about Colliton’s slow start (emphasis added):

Coming in, we didn’t want to change a lot of things off the bat, but we want to try and change some of the tendencies. The hardest part is guys have played one way for a while. You get habits engrained with you. It’s hard to change them without a lot of practice time, without also thinking on the ice, and I think we’re seeing some of that.

While there’s a ton to unpack in this quote alone, the part I’m focused on is the time factor. Colliton has had very little time to implement the systems he wants to implement. The wholesale changes he has tried to make—man-to-man instead of zone defense, primarily—have been done on the fly. Only one systemic change, the power play, has worked so far (and given the depth of scoring talent the Hawks have always had, that shouldn’t be so surprising). As The Maven so eloquently pointed out a few weeks ago, if Bowman had any courage whatsoever, he would have fired Quenneville before the season began and given Colliton more time to try to implement his systems in a more controlled setting, rather than making him shit his pants, dive in, and swim.

Whether those systems work or not is a question more adequately answered with more preparation. With this season swirling down the drain like piss in the Wrigley troughs, one of the things to look forward to is what Colliton can push out after a full offseason of tinkering. Right now, it’s obvious that the man-to-man system is a diaper fire. It’s possible that that’s just what it is, but it’s also possible that the guys he has just haven’t been comfortable making such a marked change in in-game situations (on top of the sucking, instincts tend to take over).

If Colliton is given at least one offseason to prepare—rather than hoping that guys older than him will change the way they’ve played for a decade on a dime—it’s plausible that the system is only as bad as players within it, which is a bit easier to solve than a broken system.

2. Talent: You and I both knew that unless everything went perfectly, this Hawks team wouldn’t be a playoff team. You can’t really blame Colliton for having a roster whose blue line is the personification of a middle finger in Quenneville’s face foisted upon him. (You can blame him for how he uses it, which we’ll do shortly.) But there might be hope.

At the rate the team is going, they’re likely to be in the running for a top-2 pick in the draft, which could inject young, NHL-ready forward talent into the mix immediately. By most accounts, Boqvist could be ready next year, as might Beaudin. The Hawks have cap space to use for a genuine top-4 defenseman in the offseason, which needs to be the foremost priority for Bowman, lest he’s trying to get fired.

If Colliton’s system requires speed, the Hawks have some waiting in the wings, and they have the salary cap means to go get some.

3. The Power Play: Of all the things Colliton has done right, this is it. Since December 18—which is when the current iteration of the PP1 took over—the Hawks are the absolute best power play team in the league with a 39.6% conversion rate (19 goals/48 opps.). They’re on a nine-game PP goal streak. They’ve climbed from deadass last to 16th in the league in that span. The next closest team to them in that time frame, the Penguins, are nearly 8% behind them at 31.8% (14 goals/44 opps.).

This is what gives me the most hope that Colliton is the answer. For nearly 11 years, the Hawks have had some of the best scoring talent on the planet yet only finished in the top 10 for PP% three times. Their woes on the PP were without a doubt systemic. It took Colliton about a month to fix that. When given the talent, Colliton tapped into it quickly. The power play is just a part of the whole, but if given enough time, you can’t help but wonder if he can fix other systemic problems the team has. So, I’ll argue that that power play is a case study in what Colliton can do given the appropriate talent and time.

The Case Against Colliton as the Answer

1. Firing Bowman: Bylsma–Murray in Buffalo. Hakstol–Hextall in Philly. Peters–Francis (Geraci) in Carolina. While it isn’t a hard-and-fast rule that a new GM will bring in a new coach, there is a history of it. And the drum that beats louder and louder every day is FIRE STAN BOWMAN. There’s certainly a case for it: From trading Teuvo, to signing Manning and extending Rutta as a “fuck you” to Quenneville, to claiming that he saw this team as a playoff contender, Bowman’s recent decision making has been, to put it politely, pigshit.

If Bowman is fired after this season, it’s possible that whoever replaces him will want to go Bret “Hitman” Hart and wash out the old-man smell Bowman left behind. That could include tossing Colliton. This is the most likely scenario in which Colliton doesn’t stick: a new GM throwing out the baby with the bathwater because the baby was born in the bathwater.

2. Lineup Management: Sometimes, the new boss looks awfully similar to the old boss. We’ve recently watched Henri Jokiharju take a healthy scratch in favor of Slater Koekkoek and Carl Dahlstrom of the “not part of this team’s future” collective. When asked why he did that, this supposed Great Communicator babbled about “fast forwarding his development” by benching him, claiming “you can’t play everyone” (skip to 5:43 in this audio clip). What started off as a somewhat believable answer about Harju’s scratch (82-game season, takes time to adapt, don’t want to burn him out [though sending him to the WJC kind of fucks that narrative, doesn’t it?]) devolved into the question we can’t stop asking: “When is it Seabrook’s turn,” or, more accurately, “Why isn’t it Seabrook’s turn?”

And it’s not just that. It’s making DeBrincat play not-top-6 minutes with guys who are only skating because they won a fucking drawing (which is something Colliton has changed recently, which is good). It’s starting Cam Ward in situations that aren’t back-to-backs. It’s slotting Anisimov over DeBrincat and Saad (which is finally changing, too). The talent is what it is, but it’s the management of that talent that’s questionable. In a perfect world with this lineup, you’re looking at something like:

DeBrincat–Toews–Kane

Saad–Strome–Kahun

Caggiula–Kampf–Kruger

Perlini–Anisimov–Hayden

Murphy–Jokiharju

Keith–Gustafsson

Dahlstrom–Seabrook, Koekkoek (rotating)

Delia

Although time is a factor in figuring out what you’ve got, it’s not really a mystery anymore. Load up the top 6, let Jokiharju create, and if you want to rotate your D-men, rotate the ones who either suck or aren’t a part of the future (this possibly includes Gustafsson). Until Colliton shows us that he can scratch Seabrook or Keith after a bad game, his “we might rotate guys” schtick will be hard to take seriously. He’s been put in an impossible situation with the defense, but if they’re really trying to win, when Seabrook and even Keith’s play warrant it, scratch them. (And kiss my ass with any cynical “asses in seats” arguments you want to make. If McDonough is as good a marketer as he says he is, he’ll find a way to market the team as it transitions away from the Old Guard. Even name recognition stops drawing after too much losing, so position the team to win more now.)

3. The Stats: Let’s look at this in two ways: Colliton vs. Quenneville this year; Colliton vs. Quenneville last year after Crawford’s injury. We can control for Crawford’s appearance this year because he wasn’t very good in the time he was here.

Team Stats CF% SCF% HDCF% PDO Points%

Colliton

2018–19

(36 games)

 47.85 (26th) 45.73 (29th) 41.76 (31st) .994 (T-21st) .417 (30th)

Quenneville

2018

(15 games)

 51.5 (10th) 49.17 (20th) 43.64 (27th) .989 (22nd) .500 (22nd)

Quenneville

2017–18

(47 games*)

 51.96 (8th) 51.99 (6th) 46.88 (25th) .979 (29th) .394 (28th)

* = After Crawford Injury

CF% = Corsi; SCF% = Scoring Chances For Percentage; HDCF% = High-Danger Chances For Percentage; PDO = Shooting Percentage + Save Percentage

No matter how you slice it, the Hawks are statistically worse across the board than they ever were with Quenneville, and that’s with marginally better luck (i.e., higher PDO) than Quenneville ever had (and Colliton’s PDO would likely be higher if he weren’t throwing Cam Ward and his .888 SV% out there with aplomb). They possess the puck less, have fewer scoring chances, and give up more high-danger chances. It’s no coincidence that they’re the worst in the league in HDCF% and second-worst in points percentage, in front of only Ottawa, a team that should be relegated to the AHL.

What’s even more worrying is that the team is getting statistically worse under Colliton despite marginally better talent. This year, Quenneville didn’t have Murphy or Strome (whether he’d use them properly is another story). He had Manning and Rutta, and we don’t need to sing that song again. He didn’t have Collin Delia to throw a .923 despite facing 35+ shots per game. While neither Murphy, Strome, nor Delia are saviors, they are better than what Quenneville had to work with.

So, What Are We Doing Here?

In the end, despite the record and the stats, you let Colliton ride out his contract at the very least. Watching what he did with the power play is enough to wonder what more he can fix, given time and talent. Whether it’s Bowman or someone else (other than Chiarelli), the key to Colliton’s success will be getting something resembling defensive talent on the roster. Connor Murphy can’t do everyone’s job.

Boqvist, Beaudin, and Mitchell (once he finishes college) are supposed to be those guys soon, but you still need to bring someone in via trade or free agency. Karlsson is probably a pipe dream. We know that Carolina wanted Saad for Faulk. Would they take Saad, Gustafsson, and a prospect like Beaudin for Hamilton? If they would, would you do it? All of these guys could fit the system Colliton wants to implement. The question is, “Will he have enough time with them?”

We always knew this team would be bad, but Colliton was supposed to at least stabilize that. He hasn’t really done that yet. With more time and a full offseason, we’ll have a better idea for what Colliton can do. I want to see.

Everything Else

The Truth, That You Can Handle And Are Entitled To

By Sam Fels 2328 0

Sorry, A Few Good Men was on when I got home last night.

To preserve any kind of sanity about the state of the Hawks, I work under the theory that behind closed doors, Stan Bowman told John McDonough and Rocky Wirtz that basically this season was going to be a toss, but they wouldn’t tell the fans that because they’re terrified no one would understand (even though I’m fairly sure they would?), but he would take the bullets about it all. I take him at his word that the team’s future is resting basically upon Adam Boqvist, Henri Jokiharju, and some combination of Ian Mitchell and Nicolas Beaudin. That, and some big free agent signing, which they’re trying real hard to make you believe is Artemi Panarin and I still remain unconvinced that’s a great idea. But unless he goes entirely late-career Patrick Sharp and does more floating than a drunk yuppie in the Chicago River on St. Patrick’s Day, it won’t end up that badly.

There’s one problem with that theory. Stan Bowman may not have any idea how to scout, develop, or identify a defenseman.

Here’s a list of d-men that Stan Bowman has drafted that have had more than a cameo in the NHL: Stephen Johns, Klas Dahlbeck, Adam Clendening, Henri Jokiharju. That’s in nine years.

Here’s a list of d-men that Bowman has either acquired or signed: Nick Leddy, Nick Boynton, Chris Campoli, Jassen Cullimore, “John Scott” (the quotes because he rarely played defense but he did start there), Johnny Oduya, Sami Lepisto (Sami Lepisto! Sami in the Taco Bell!), Steve Montador, Sean O’Donnell, Sheldon Brookbank, Michal Rozsival (fine the first time, not the next 12), Mike Kostka, David Rundblad, Kyle Cumiskey, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Tim Erixon (you forgot, didn’t you?), Kimmo Timmonen, Trevor Daley (who sucks out loud despite what any writer tells you), Christian Ehrhoff, Erik Gustafsson, Rob Scuderi, Darko Svedberg, brought Brian Campbell back, Gustav Forsling, Michal Kempny, brought Johnny Oduya back, Cody Franson, Connor Murphy, Jordan Oesterle, Jan Rutta, Blay Killman, Brandon Manning, Brandon Davidson.

How many times did you throw up? Eleventy-billion?

Now, let’s throw one note of a qualifier in there. For most of the years Stan has been here, the top four was set. So they really only had to find third-pairing players. Ok, now that’s out of the way…

So in nine drafts, Bowman found all of four d-men that could play at the NHL at all, and only one has any hope of being more than a third-pairing guy, and I’m giving Jokiharju some credit there. And he’s the only one to make any kind of impact on the Hawks.

Add those four, and the 33 that Bowman has signed or acquired in some way. So that’s 37. How many rise above just third-pairing status? Oduya the first time is clearly the pick of the bunch. Nick Leddy didn’t here but is a second-pairing player for sure, so we’ll give him that. Michal Kempny clearly is, but he couldn’t get his coach to agree. Connor Murphy probably, but now he has a back made out of rubber cement. So that’s four. Five out of 37. 13% of the d-men he’s tried have been something more than scenery, and only two here in Chicago where the Hawks could benefit. Two and a half as Leddy was pretty damn good in ’13 and ’14.

It’s like saying the Cubs will eventually develop starting pitching. We have more than 10 years of evidence in two organizations that Theo Epstein can’t really develop a starter. Maybe it’s just not going to happen.

So every time Stan stands in front of the media and tries to sell you on Boqvist, Beaudin, and Mitchell being some kind of savior(s), I would raise an eyebrow or six. Because the track record just isn’t there.

Everything Else

My Realization, Q’s Realization, And All Seven And We’ll Watch Them Fall

By Sam Fels 2090 0

Halfway through the preseason, and it’s taken me that and months–perhaps even a year or more–to realize what bothers me so much about whatever “the plan,” the Hawks have here. What can I say? I’m a slow learner, runner, and just about everything else.

Perhaps it’s the surprise at just how little buzz I or anyone else feels just more than a week out from the season starting. From Crawford’s injury to the lack of activity over the summer that would rise above a beer belch, to Connor Murphy’s injury and whatever else, it seems the only thoughts we give the Hawks right now are which tickets we’re going to sell and just how bad they might be. It’s not exactly greeting the season with glee and a hug.

And this weekend, I finally figured out why, at least for myself. All summer, and really last year as well when the Hawks failed to do anything to improve their lot in life (which would have been folly anyway), the line from Madison St. was that the Hawks wanted to keep their powder dry because they had to sign Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat to long-term extensions and there were other kids they were excited about.

And I started to play that out in my head. And I’m sure next summer sees both of those players get their new contracts. And this season we’ll find out whatever Henri Jokiharju is, maybe. Adam Boqvist has already shown what he could possibly do. There’s Ian Mitchell at Denver. And I guess I get it.

But locking in all those players just locks in the team already have. And that team is already not good enough to do anything anyone’s going to write poetry about. The Hawks are basically holding out to keep this team that will barely scratch out a playoff place if everything goes right. They’re afraid of breaking THAT team up, not the one that actually did do things people wrote things about in a lyrical fashion, because it’s already gone. And I’m not convinced they know the difference.

Because as much as we love Schmaltz and Top Cat, they’re probably second-line players. Maybe Top Cat maxes out as a top-line winger. Maybe if Schmaltz absolutely balls out he’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. But as we’ve seen with RNH, he’s a #2 center on a team that wants to do anything of note.

Maybe two years down the line Jokiharju, Mitchell, and Boqvist have completely transformed the blue line, and maybe that’s good enough to make up for the forward corps deficiencies. Maybe. But how big are those deficiencies when Toews is 34 and Kane is 33? What is Keith at that point?

Nowhere in the pipeline is a true #1 center. We don’t even really know if there’s a #1 defenseman, though at least they can hope on a couple guys. You can’t win without those things. Maybe Collin Delia is a future #1 goalie? How many years is that away?

You can get those types of players through any fashion, of course. The Hawks likely won’t be able to draft one because they’ll never be bad enough to really be in the running for a top-three pick unless the bottom falls out in a way we can’t predict or the balls bounce in a freakish (read: rigged) way. They don’t have the mustard to trade for one, or so it seems.

But there were two franchise-turning players available this summer. The Hawks wouldn’t even put themselves in the room with them. Or maybe they couldn’t. They sure seemed to want everyone to know they weren’t after John Tavares or Erik Karlsson. How often do those types of players become available as the finished product? Why would you not at least attempt to see what it would take? Why would you choose the unknown over the known?

Look at the Bears and Khalil Mack. He’s the finished article. There are no questions. When a generational talent is out there, you go get him. Suddenly, the Sharks are West favorites. Worry about your “possibles” tomorrow. Today is for “definites.” What’s the plan for the Hawks to get those types of players? Is it bottoming out? Sure doesn’t seem like it. It’s not signing one, clearly. It’s not trading for one, clearly. So what’s the plan?

Right now it looks like the Hawks have a plan to build a team that’s a 6th-seed at best for a few years. Boy that’s exciting.

-When Q first started hinting that he was not ruling out Boqvist making the team straight-up, because I’m a cynical sort I thought it was just another thumbed-nose at his GM Stan Bowman. He’s done it before. “Oh, Stan wants this young d-man in Jokiharju to make the team so I’m gonna choose another one BECAUSE I’M JUST THAT SMART.”

But the more I thought it over, the more I want to think that Quenneville just sees the way the league is going and how teams are going to have to be built. We’re not far away from the stay-at-home, conservative blue-liner going the way of Gimbels. Some point soon, teams are just going to dress six or seven d-men who can all move and all play with the puck and make their teams play faster. It’s the only way to counter more and more forward groups that are entirely made up of racing bikes.

I’d like to think Q knows this, and I’d like to think he knows that he really only has Gustafsson and Keith on a good day who can do that. There’s always room for more speed, and whatever the big problems Boqvist might have at the top level he can move and he can play with the puck. He can get the Hawks out of trouble himself. And they need more of it, wherever they can get it and whatever form it comes in.

Which is one reason I’d like to see the Hawks dress seven d-men most nights. First off, they don’t have 12 forwards. Andreas Martinsen or John Hayden or David Kampf or Matthew Highmore will be flanking Marcus Kruger, and no one’s going to give a flying fornication if they only have to use one of them. Meanwhile, when Murphy returns healthy it opens up a spot for another d-man, and while it’s not saying much they’re at least of higher quality than whatever is pretending to be a fourth-line winger right now.

It provides more shelter for Jokiharju. It gives you more flexibility to go offensive or defensive when the situation calls.

The real point is that extra forward spot can be used to give any of Saad, Kane, Top Cat, Schmaltz, Sikura, an extra few shifts per game. Even Toews with Kruger playing wing for a spot. It’s akin to batting your best hitter 2nd. Over a full season that extra ABs add up. Those extra shifts would add up. And really, games and standings can be decided on a handful of goals here or there. Why wouldn’t you give your best players more chances to get them? An extra two or three shifts a night isn’t going to paralyze anyone for a season.

This won’t happen of course, because the Hawks dressed seven d-men once last year and they gave up a touchdown to the Devils. But the case is right there for it.

Everything Else

Preseason #2 Nothing to See Here — Hawks 2, Red Wings 4

By Rose Rankin 1666 0

There really wasn’t much of note but we should get used to that, right? Tonight’s cast was two lines and a bunch of no-names (or laughable names, in some cases). Let’s do this:

Box Score

–The second line of Saad-Schmaltz-Kane looked pretty dreamy. They scored the first goal but prior to that had decent chances and passing to spare. I’ve already made it clear I want Saad back on the top line, but if the production and chemistry works out, there’s not much I can say. We’ll see if Quenneville keeps them together…because the top line could still use Brandon Saad.

–On that note, there was some shitty passing and general disjointedness from the top line of Kunitz-Toews-Top Cat, which should surprise no one. Chris Kunitz did nothing to demonstrate that he belongs on the top line, which also should be the most obvious statement possible.

–Adam Boqvist had some nice moves, particularly in the first period when broke up a solid scoring chance, and managed to jump up in the play and have a scoring chance himself. He’s still just a kid and will likely be sent off to the juniors netherworld, but there maybe is some hope for a distant future of decent defensemen?

–Not Brandon Manning though. Tuulola and Carlsson (no, not the right Karlsson, it was a burr under my saddle all night) didn’t look great either, but ah who gives a shit. Foley had a lot of fun singing “Lo-lo-lo-lo-LOLA” though.

–We’re going to miss Corey Crawford this season. Now I know I said that Kunitz being subpar on the first line was the most obvious statement possible, but I was wrong. This one is the most obvious statement possible. Forsberg got hung out to dry a bit by inexperienced defensemen, but he and Lankinen would make the initial save, give up a rebound and blow it. It’s going to be a long one, folks.

–Character-from-an-Emily-Bronte-novel Mackenzie Entwistle scored in the second period, which is just fun to have a reason to say that guy’s name. It will quite possibly be the last time we do.

It’s only game two of the preseason, none of this REALLY makes a difference, and we know that the coaches are evaluating which of the young’ins will earn some of the last roster spots. But while there were some flashes of decency (hello, second line), there’s still a long way to go.

 

Everything Else

The Silence Is Deafening

By John Pullega 2439 0

It’s been 19 days since the Blackhawks drafted Adam Boqvist with their first pick. It’s been 10 days since they signed Cam Ward, Brandon Manning, and Chris Kunitz. It’s been at least a week since any new flareups of the Hawks discussing a trade for Justin Faulk. And until someone of significant carriage traverses into the Convention to reach out a taint-damp hand to low-five the only player who can save the Hawks by himself, we won’t be able to confirm that Corey Crawford is even alive, let alone fit to play hockey.

While it is the doldrums of hockey summer, what the Hawks haven’t done stands at odds with all the scowling and growling about how things need to change and the unacceptability of quick-ending or absent playoff runs over the past three years. The dearth of activity is mostly in line with what the rest of the Central has done so far, save the Blues, but the Hawks were never really in a position to do as others have done this offseason.

But what it is that they can do now? They were spurned by John Tavares, and even if they had been allowed into the room in the first place, can you see the Brain Trust signing Tavares for more money and a higher spot on the depth chart than Jonathan Toews? Erik Karlsson—however unrealistic it is to hope for him—is still out there, but what would it take for Ottawa to even consider that? Are you comfortable shipping DeBrincat and Schmaltz out as part of that deal? The Hawks likely don’t have enough to offer even if DeBrincat and Schmaltz were both part of the deal, but if they did, would it worth it, especially if Karlsson wouldn’t want to re-sign?

The last big rumor we heard on the Faulk front was that Tom Dundon—who is working hard to establish himself as Not a Moron™ with his acquisition of Dougie “Don’t Call Me Yancey” Hamilton—wanted Brandon Saad in return, which the Hawks declined. So, we have an idea for what Dundon would want for Faulk as it stands, and it doesn’t look like he’s willing to sell short on him. The Hawks don’t have anything close to a player comparable to Saad (who would have thought that large, fast, 25-year-old, two-way wingers would be hard to come by?), so what can they even offer that’s in the same ballpark? Can you justify trading Schmaltz or DeBrincat for Faulk? In a perfect world, you’d jettison Wide Dick and Sikura. But given the original asking price of Saad and all the reports that say that the Hawks prefer to keep Anisimov, that seems vain (and maybe undoable, since we don’t know which 10 teams Arty has on his no-trade list).

Of course, all of this is probably moot if Cam Ward takes the lion’s share of starts. The continued silence around Crawford is a huge cause for concern, even when the Hawks go back to their boilerplate, “We expect him to be ready.” They’ve been expecting him to be ready since January, so the song remaining the same doesn’t really tell us anything.

And that’s where you might start to get itchy. The Brain Trust has been pounding their fists on the table about how things are going to change, but the only changes they’ve made so far include signing two guys who are old enough to use their ages as a basis for a calendar and a REAL HARD-WORKING defenseman who doesn’t move the puck and whom not even the Flyera wanted. As the summer churns on and the Hawks sit stagnant like an above-ground pool in Naperville during divorce proceedings, it becomes more and more likely that those were the changes they wanted to make. That’s a terrifying idea for next year.

I get that the Hawks have no obligation, and probably no desire, to keep any of us abreast about what they are or aren’t doing. It might be possible that they know for sure that Crawford will be OK and just aren’t telling anyone for HOCKEY REASONS. They might believe that this team as constructed is a playoff team. If I squint, I can maybe see it. But that requires Saad to show that last year’s shooting percentage was an anomaly. It requires Toews to dig himself out of an offensive decline that’s gotten worse over each passing year. It requires DeBrincat, Schmaltz, and Vinnie to further elevate their offensive games, and for guys like Sikura, Ejdsell, and Hayden to prove they belong in the NHL.

And then there’s the defense. Without a puck mover like Faulk or Karlsson, what is this D-corps supposed to be? Past a pairing of Keith–Murphy, which is by no means guaranteed in the first place, you’re working with what, Gustafsson–Rutta and Manning–Seabrook? That’s a whole lot of borderline 2nd pairing guys at best, AHL fodder at worst. It’s possible, and perhaps necessary, that Jokiharju can make the leap to the NHL at the tender age of 19, but even if he does, is Q going to use him?

There’s still some time and opportunity for the Hawks to make a splash at a puck-moving defenseman, which they desperately need as Keith’s engine starts to falter. Whether they can make a trade for one of them with what they have is becoming increasingly doubtful. But if they don’t, the silence that we want to interpret as calculated trade scheming must be viewed as the silence of men without answers whose asses will be one big blister if this year is a repeat of last year. And because no one from the front office can or will clarify exactly which direction the Hawks are going in, all we can do is assume that we’re in soft rebuild mode and hope that guys like Jokiharju, Boqvist, Schmaltz, and Top Cat are a core they can build around.

They told us change was coming. It might already be here.

Everything Else

That’s One Way

By Sam Fels 2302 0

As with everything, how you judge last night’s first round is whether or not you take the Blackhawks at their word. And that’s not really something we do around here.

As Fifth Feather pointed out on Twitter, the Hawks for the past two years have come out and said their performance is unacceptable and that changes will be made and safe is death and all that. Except…there haven’t really been changes. A couple trades, which sure, fine, that counts but those had cap considerations to them as well.

So if the Hawks were truly hellbent on change and shaking things up and lunging desperately for one more run, you probably don’t take the biggest project available at #8. In reality, you don’t use that #8 at all and you try and find a trade for something that helps now. Let’s be clear, there was on player the Hawks could have taken, once Zadina didn’t quite slip to them, that would have made this team in the upcoming season. But there were players that might have helped in ’19-’20.

Adam Boqvist is not that.

That doesn’t mean Boqvist won’t turn out to be the best d-man in this draft, besides from Dahlin. He very well may be. The skating is other worldly as is the other creativity. It’s heartening to see the Hawks not bewitched by size and just deciding to take the most skill they can find, and bodes well for how they will play in the coming years. If Boqvist can flower and Jokiharju and Mitchell are what they’ve promised, that’s a pretty mobile and dynamic blue line you’re going to be rocking in three years.

Still, Wahlstrom was there and would have helped sooner. Dobson might have as well, though we’ve been over what d-men out of the Q turn out to be. Ty Smith would have been a reach but given how the picks ahead of them went maybe they could have traded down and gotten an extra pick? Who knows?

While the theme was that the Hawks concentrated on defense, when talking about a draft where no one is going to help in the next season and after the first round probably not the next two, it’s a better plan to just draft the best available. If the Hawks felt that Boqvist and then Nicolas Beaudin were the best players there, fine. If they think they’re drafting for a need, and they’re looking three years down the road, what does that mean for this year? In three years Keith will be toast, Toews will be close, and Seabrook very well might look like Senator Kelly post mutation. Sure, you have to start planning for that, but you also better have a plan for how you’re going to maximize the interim. Otherwise, are you telling your “core” that the rest of their careers in Chicago aren’t going to be for much?

I also got a kick of Joel Quenneville being interviewed about Boqvist, because there’s a good chance he’ll never coach him. But we’ll have that talk another day.

So we’re past the draft, and the Hawks plan for this year still hasn’t presented itself. There’s time, as the negotiation window begins Sunday. But that’s basically only Tavares or JVR. The clock is ticking louder.

Everything Else

Burn The Pages of Unwritten Memoirs – Draft Preview: Adam Boqvist

By Adam Hess 2240 0

As Sam said yesterday about Ty Smith, and because this is the direction the game and league is really headed with the position, you could probably just copy and paste Quinn Hughes draft preview (or Smith’s from yesterday) to get this preview of Adam Boqvist out of Sweden done. Though not necessarily small at 5’11” and 170 lbs, he could probably benefit from adding some size in the form of muscle and weight, and his offensive game is incredibly advanced. In fact, reading some scouting reports on him makes him sound more like a dynamo forward than a blue liner.

His shot has been heralded as one of the best in the draft – not just among defensemen – and one scouting report said he might even have the quickest release of any player in the draft in that regard. That’s a major plus and definitely an indicator that he’s a future power play point man.

The movement is where he gets the most praise, though, both of himself and the puck. His vision and passing ability is top level, and he has drawn comparison’s to Erik Karlsson, which is maybe a combination of hyperbole and lazy player comparison, but also could be an absolutely huge boon for whoever ends up drafting him. It’s certainly a possibility that he has the offensive capability to match up to EK65, and even if he does that is not necessarily the kind of thing that would make him a certified top-3 pick.

That’s because his defensive game does still need some work. He’s got a bit of early Nick Leddy in him, where he’s quick to flee the zone and try to jump into rushes even at times he shouldn’t be. Some reports mentioned him looking to get up the ice before his team even retrieved the puck, causing some breakdowns in the zone. He still needs some work on positioning in the d-zone as well, though his active stick and ability to use his speed to keep up with opposing forwards helps him in that regard.

Boqvist also brings an added advantage that almost no other prospects in the draft does other than number one pick Rasmus Dahlin, and that is experience playing against actual grown men in a professional league. Although, in Boqvist’s case it significantly less – he played in just 15 games in the SHL last year and registered only one point in that time – but it’s still a valuable experience to build on. He also dominated the SuperElit league with Brynas IF’s U20 team before getting the call to the main squad, notching 14 goals and 10 assists for a 24 point total in 25 games.

There’s a decent chance Boqvist doesn’t even end up being available to the Hawks at 8, but if he is there he seems like a sensible pick. There’s a slight chance he could prove to be NHL ready next year, though most scouting reports say he’s a year away (but when you’re picking at 8, everyone is) while others say he’s at least “a few” years away. There’s some projection to Boqvist but his ceiling is high and his game is tailored to today’s NHL, and he’d be another high-level right shot blue line prospect for the Hawks to add to the system.