All stats at even-strength except where noted
xGF, xGA, xGF%: Goals team “should” score, give up, and percentage based on amount and type of chances given neutral goaltending.
Time On Ice Percentage: Percentage of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio: Amount of shifts started in offensive zone compared to all shifts.
Game #20 Preview
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens – 6pm
The Leafs have broken their impossible losing streak to the Habs earlier in the year, but they’re coming for a regulation win and to jab a thumb in the eye of the floundering Canadiens. The Leafs can’t seem to lose without Auston Matthews, because obviously he’s a dirty, glory-boy Yank who doesn’t really care about the cause. And if you think this won’t be the narrative coming out of Toronto before too long, you clearly haven’t been an NHL fan very long. The Canadiens are going to be fine, they’re doing just about everything right except getting saves from anyone who’s not Charlie Lindgren. Still, a loss here and Montreal might sink into the St. Lawrence.
Second Screen Viewing
Oilers v. Stars – 1pm
Fair amount of afternoon hockey for you today, and this is the pick of the litter. The Oilers are still trying to put it together, and so are the Stars, which were both givens when this season started. Still, given the offensive talent on show here you’d think this one could get up and down. And anything that gets up and down with Run CMD out there is worth watching.
Other Games
Flames vs. Flyers – Noon
Coyotes vs. Senators – 1pm
Devils vs. Jets – 2pm
Panthers vs. Kings – 3pm
Hurricanes vs. Sabres – 6pm
Islanders vs. Lightning – 6pm
Wild vs. Capitals – 6:30
Avalanche vs. Predators – 7pm
Blues vs. Canucks – 9pm
Bruins vs. Sharks – 9:30
A couple times a week, I put myself through a ritual that makes me feel all the things. It provides joy and excitement, while also putting a mythical flaming dagger right into my chest cavity. It makes me pump my fist, and then direct that fist right into my own teeth/balls, whatever I’m feeling at the moment.
It’s watching Teuvo Teravainen play.
Maybe you’ve noticed, maybe you haven’t. Our Special Boy, our Finn of Dragons, our Turbo Targaryn, is lighting it up in Raleigh. He’s got 15 points in 17 games. Some of that is piling up eight points in his last four games, but it’s been ridiculous. He’s carrying a +5.0 relative Corsi-percentage on the best Corsi team in the league. He’s got a +3.8 relative xGF% on one of the better ones in the NHL.
But numbers don’t really tell the story. You have to watch him, Sebastien Aho, and Jordan Staal. Staal has 15 points in 17 games as well, the post points-per-game he’s ever had in his career. Teuvo and Aho on some shifts just look like they’re playing a different sport.
It’s amazing what happens when you just let a young player do what he does best. Those whipped passes without looking that Teuvo only got to flash here on occasion, where the puck is only on his stick for a blink before he’s finding someone on the other side of the ice, are heavily featured. He’s added a shooting-mentality at times, which the Hawks could never get through to him, though they pretty much asked him to sacrifice everything else to do so. The little fucker even scored on a slapshot against the Stars to kick off his natural hat trick on Monday.
It’s pleasure you usually have to pay for, mixed with pain… you usually have to pay for. Because it shouldn’t be happening there. When Stan Bowman’s run comes to an end, no matter when, losing Teuvo Teravainen for nothing, merely to clear Bryan Bickell’s contract, might end up his biggest mistake. What would he look like on a line with Alex DeBrincat right now? What would the whole forward corps look like with Teuvo’s skills and flexibility?
It shouldn’t be this way. It’s a huge indictment on the way the Hawks used to run (still do?) that someone’s souring on Teuvo could become an organization-wide feeling. This is a player who took over a Stanley Cup Final game at the age of 20 in the 3rd period. He kick-started a near-miracle comeback in Anaheim in Game 5. His line came up with three of the biggest goals in that run in ’15–the winners in Games 1 and 5 in the Final and the OT winner in Game 4 against the Ducks.
And yet the Hawks could only see what wasn’t there. He wasn’t big enough, even though his hands and mind would have compensated in the middle. He didn’t shoot enough or forecheck hard enough, even though his vision would have made him the clear second-best playmaker on the team, behind only one of the league’s best in Patrick Kane.
Stan and Q will never suffer for it, as all they have to do is point at their three banners. And even if they’d kept Teuvo, after this latest contract is up he might have been too expensive then.
This is the NHL they want. Where if you make the mistake of paying someone like Brent Seabrook, you lose Teuvo and the chance to have Panarin and Saad together and/or Stephen Johns or Nick Leddy. That doesn’t make Stan an idiot. It just makes him not perfect.
I try to just enjoy Teuvo without any of the context. But it’s impossible. Some ex’s never escape your mind. You always wonder…
Stars v. Lighting – 6:30
Yeah, I should probably pick the Devils and the Maple Leafs, but as we saw Sunday the Devils are made up of a bunch of kids stacked on each other’s shoulders to fake being adults. So screw it. It’s a homecoming of sorts for THE BISHOP! as we still wait for the unholy force that everyone told us the Stars will be. They’ll see what looks to be the best team in the league, though the Bolts have ridden the percentages a touch. Still, they’re one of the more fun teams in the league to watch, and the Stars would be if they weren’t coached by Jabba The Hitch. With Klingberg and Lindell and crew, they could really go. And with Bishop being a disappointment so far, this could also turn into the Lightning putting up a touchdown.
Second Screen Viewing
Devils vs. Maple Leafs – 6pm
Fine, I’ll put it here. I don’t know what the Devils are doing it with. I’m guessing it’s just trying harder than teams not paying attention fully because y’know, it’s the Devils. They should have everyone’s attention now.
Other Games
Hurricanes vs. Islanders – 6pm
Coyotes vs. Canadiens – 6pm
Penguins vs. Senators – 6:30
Predators vs. Wild – 7pm
Flyers vs. Jets – 7pm
Capitals vs. Avalanche – 8pm
Blues vs. Oilers – 8pm
Knights vs. Canucks – 9pm
Bruins vs. Kings – 9:30
Panthers vs. Sharks – 9:30
It’s hard to imagine how last night could have been a better illustration of the things the Hawks defense does well and the things it doesn’t do well and how it’s kind of mismatched for the task at hand. It also was something of an example about how it’s being let down by the forwards in front of it, and how those forwards bail them out.
Here’s what we know about the Hawks’ defense right now. It has maybe one top-pairing player, and that’s not a certain (Keith). It has three players that are probably no more than third-pairing bum-slayers (Forsling, Franson, Seabrook). It has two players either in their first or second year that are still working out the kinks (Rutta, Forsling). It has one player that Q just won’t let be anything, really (Kempny). And it has one player who’s probably a second-pairing player learning a new system, but the Hawks need him to become a top pairing player sharpish while shuffling him from one side to the other (Murphy). As you can see, it’s a mess.
Of late, Q has come to trust (somewhat) Cody Franson with Duncan Keith. If you squint, you see why. He’s big, he’s a good counter to Keith’s all-over game, and when he has the puck he’s good with it. But here’s the problem. Watch Franson on this one, especially on the replay:
He loses the puck off the draw, spins around looking for it in his feet, gets stripped, and then dogs it back to his side of the ice where there are two Rangers uncovered because Keith is probably expecting him to get back there sometime before Purim. And this is not a rare occurrence with Franson, who does not have anywhere near the speed to be dogging it anywhere. There’s a reason he’s on his fourth team and was on a PTO. He’s just that slow and kind of goes to the zoo too often.
But he can also do this:
That’s a one-timer off a bouncing puck off the boards not anywhere near his wheelhouse that he gets to the net. And really, he’s just about the only Hawks d-man who can do that. Certainly the only right-handed one, as Seabrook would have probably fallen over these days. The Hawks need that on the power play for sure, and they need that dash at even-strength as well from that side.
The Hawks are also being held back at times due to a learning curve.
Here, the Hawks do mostly everything right, actually. Murphy is within his rights to try and jump down low and get involved, and the Hawks want that out of him. Hartman actually covers his point correctly, but doesn’t read the shot going wide right and lets the puck past him and then Nash has a step on Murphy. Murphy actually does pretty well in forcing Nash on his backhand and wide, and this is one Crow would like back. But again, it’s an example of the Hawks d not really having the footspeed to play the hyper-aggressive game they have, or at least still trying to reprogram some players on how to do it.
Gustav Forsling was excellent last night, and yet still started over 60% of his shifts outside of the offensive zone. And his partner, Jan Rutta, was beyond awful. And this is the kind of thing the Hawks are just going to have to live with for a while.
Q won’t like it, because the one time he tried it the Hawks gave up seven, but dressing seven d-men for a while is probably the best option. Because each of the d-men have something the Hawks need and each of them also have a glaring weakness that needs to be covered up. Kempny is the most mobile d-man behind Keith and Forsling (and it’s closer with Forsling than you think). But he is good for one or two boners per game that need to be covered. Keith can’t both take on top lines and push the play offensively, which means you need someone else to do whichever he’s not. But from the left side, only Forsling can be a puck-mover behind Keith if Kempny isn’t playing. If someone else needs to take top pairing assignments defensively, who is it? I’d give Murphy a run, but with whom? It sure feels like Forsling is being groomed for that, but that’s a big risk. Franson is slow and defensively wonky, but his offensive skills and right-handed shot are needed on the power play at least. Rutta is defensively more sound than Franson but doesn’t have the offensive polish, so he can’t do all of those things and his learning curve is starting to look pretty steep anyway.
And Seabrook…um…. well, I’ll get back to you on that.
As you can see, it’s a rough puzzle to try and fix, as there don’t seem to be any corner pieces. The Hawks haven’t fashioned any yet, that’s for sure.
Well that was a bit more fun, wasn’t it? Aside from the Hawks slogging out of the gate like a soon-to-be-shot horse, they put on a display of raw power. To the bullets.
– Maybe “display of raw power” is overstating it, but the Hawks dominated possession for all of the 2nd and about 80% of the 3rd. They ended with a 53% share after the Baconator fart 1st, in which they posted a pathetic 32+ CF%. And it’s hard to argue against 43 shots. Any time Ondrej Pavelec seems like a better option is a good time.
– A good portion of that possession can be pinned on Patrick Kane playing like a $10.5 million player. It all started with that reach-back, through the legs backhander off the crossbar, which is the kind of thing first crushes are made of. From there, Kane proceeded to undress just about everyone on the Rangers, and was especially beautiful on Wide Dick Artie’s first goal. More of this will do just fine by all of us.
– And how about Wide Dick Artie? Playing primarily with Kane and Schmaltz has done his body of work good. The first two goals were the types of stereotypical dirty goals your mother warned you about, and the hattie from Schmaltz was a sight to behold, mostly on the part of Schmaltz, who found the perfect spot on Anisimov’s stick for the tip in.
– Anisimov also scored the PP goal, which was a clinic in how to move the puck on the PP. After winning the faceoff to Kane, Kane tapped to Seabs, who found Schmaltz on the lower left boards, who cycled it to Anisimov below the goal line, then out to Franson for a quick wrister that Artie cleaned up. One of the passing analytics gurus, Ryan Stimson, always talks about the importance of setting up plays from below the goal line, and that was a case study in how to do it.
– While it was nice to see Franson contribute two assists, he spent most of the game skating around like he was trying to hide an erection. His unforced turnover on the PP in the 1st period was so egregious that Rutta ended up on the PP point for a while. I get that Q wants Franson on the PP, but the past couple of games have shown why he was brought in on a tryout. But it’s not like the Hawks have many other options, since Murphy has found a home on the left side it seems.
– Over the past few games, Rutta has looked a step behind everyone else. He somehow managed to be the worse D-man between him and Forsling, which, to this point, was difficult to do. That he ended up with a 51+ CF% is a small miracle, given his 18 CF% in the 1st period. As much as I want him to turn into a surprise Top 4 guy, the past couple of games haven’t been encouraging. And since Q seems married to Franson out there, it might not be a bad time to flip Rutta out for Kempný in the next one, though that will no doubt cause all sorts of fuckery with the pairings.
– Credit where it’s due: Forsling saved the game tonight. His stick save on Desharnais after Rutta turned the puck over and then got horsed, and Crawford got caught down kept the Hawks from blowing their second three-goal lead in a row. Though the numbers don’t entirely flesh it out, Forsling had himself a pretty good game after a woeful 1st period, which saw him with a 9 CF%. They don’t make video packages on NBC for nothing, right? (They often do.)
– Not to fart in anyone’s soufflé, but Toews was one of only three Hawks to be below 50% in shot shares at evens (with Wingels and Panik). Yes, he scored, but it was an empty netter. It’s just one game of course, and he’s got a strong 54+ CF% on the year, but he looked to be fighting it tonight.
– Crawford wasn’t pristine, but he was good when he had to be after his rough go on Sunday. Sure, he’d like to have that third goal back, but the other two goals can be pinned more on Rutta than him (or you can just give Kreider, Zibanejad, and Captain Stairwell the credit they probably deserve).
– Brent Seabrook played the fewest minutes of all Hawks D-men tonight and posted a 60 CF%. I wonder whether those two things are related. Small sample size, but if Chunk continues to play the fewest minutes of the D-men, we might have one fewer thing to scream about.
– Kitten Mittons on the 3rd line is still stupid. That softie he squeaked by Lundqvist was hilarious.
There’s still some wonkiness out there, but the Hawks look like they’ve found some offense. If they can get Toews, Kane, and Saad on the goal side of the score sheet, all the doom and gloom could be a distant memory in a few weeks.
Beer Du Jour: My cat spilled my High Life, so I went and got a Baconator. Same shits, different way.
Line of the Night: “Ryan McDonagh has been a Tower of Power tonight.” –Pierre, the only man who can simultaneously be naïve and a pervert.
vs. 
RECORDS: Rangers 9-7-2 Hawks 8-8-2
PUCK DROP: 7pm
TV: NBCSN, because it’s Rivalry Night donchaknow?
WAITING FOR THE 3 TRAIN: Blue Shirt Banter
It’s an Original Six tilt on the Westside tonight, not that anyone really cares about that much anymore. Then again, not too many are going to care about two middling teams that both sit outside of the admittedly embryonic playoff picture at the moment. And the Rangers had to tear ass just to get here. We seem to say this every night now, but there should be a whiff of desperation to this one, as these teams don’t really have the option of passing on points right now.
And the Rangers have played like that of late, winning six in a row. This is probably not the time to be catching them. They started off terribly, and a good portion of that was put on Henrik Lundqvist’s shoulders. And with good cause. Before the winning streak, his SV% was below .900. He’s picked it up of late, but he’s had some help.
The biggest aid for him has been the newly formed top line of Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich, with Buchnevich shooting about 879% during the streak and piling up three goals and five points in his last five games. The second line with Alleged Weiner Tucker-Captain Stairwell-The Hobbit has also lit it up, and Nash in particular is on fire. He’s got four goals and six points during this streak.
But this being the Rangers, the problems are the same as they’ve been for years. They don’t have a real #1 center, or maybe any centers at all. They’re a team filled with fast, small wingers you’d probably confuse in a lineup, save Nash. There’s a nifty fourth line here with Michael Grabner pouring in the goals again, and at least Alain Vigneault is fine with making his fourth line fast and skilled as he can.
Also, the problem of who to play with Ryan McDonagh is still lingering. AV is reluctant to put Kirk ShattenKevin there, so right now it’s Nick Holden and that’s not going well at all. Steven Kampfer took a turn and that went worse. Brendan Smith is in the pressbox for $4 million a year, which brings enough light into my dark little life to be excited about waking up in the morning. ShattenKevin and Brady Skjei are playing together, which pairs their two puck-movers at the same time. But when you’ve won six in a row, you’re not changing much.
For the Hawks, not too much change. Ryan Hartman looks to be drawing back in at center on the 4th line, and while that seems weird if he comes out with a wild hair on his ass because of a healthy scratch everyone will be happy. Top Cat will continue to have his time wasted with Patrick Sharp and Tommy Wingels and on the wrong side. At least until the Hawks need a goal and he’s vaulted into the top six. So the second period.
The pairings could look like anything, though after giving up a touchdown and PAT it’s unlikely Q will dress seven d-men again. Look for Kempny to continue to sit for no reason other than REASONS. Crow gets the start.
The Rangers are a team that can play awfully fast when on song. That used to be a good thing for the Hawks. It probably isn’t anymore. But this defense isn’t very quick other than Skjei and ShattenKevin either, so they could trade chances all night. In theory, the Hawks should have more finish. But that’s hardly a sure thing.
Game #19 Preview
vs.
RECORDS: Rangers 9-7-2 Hawks 8-8-2
PUCK DROP: 7pm
TV: NBCSN, because it’s Rivalry Night donchaknow?
WAITING FOR THE 3 TRAIN: Blue Shirt Banter
It’s an Original Six tilt on the Westside tonight, not that anyone really cares about that much anymore. Then again, not too many are going to care about two middling teams that both sit outside of the admittedly embryonic playoff picture at the moment. And the Rangers had to tear ass just to get here. We seem to say this every night now, but there should be a whiff of desperation to this one, as these teams don’t really have the option of passing on points right now.
And the Rangers have played like that of late, winning six in a row. This is probably not the time to be catching them. They started off terribly, and a good portion of that was put on Henrik Lundqvist’s shoulders. And with good cause. Before the winning streak, his SV% was below .900. He’s picked it up of late, but he’s had some help.
The biggest aid for him has been the newly formed top line of Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich, with Buchnevich shooting about 879% during the streak and piling up three goals and five points in his last five games. The second line with Alleged Weiner Tucker-Captain Stairwell-The Hobbit has also lit it up, and Nash in particular is on fire. He’s got four goals and six points during this streak.
But this being the Rangers, the problems are the same as they’ve been for years. They don’t have a real #1 center, or maybe any centers at all. They’re a team filled with fast, small wingers you’d probably confuse in a lineup, save Nash. There’s a nifty fourth line here with Michael Grabner pouring in the goals again, and at least Alain Vigneault is fine with making his fourth line fast and skilled as he can.
Also, the problem of who to play with Ryan McDonagh is still lingering. AV is reluctant to put Kirk ShattenKevin there, so right now it’s Nick Holden and that’s not going well at all. Steven Kampfer took a turn and that went worse. Brendan Smith is in the pressbox for $4 million a year, which brings enough light into my dark little life to be excited about waking up in the morning. ShattenKevin and Brady Skjei are playing together, which pairs their two puck-movers at the same time. But when you’ve won six in a row, you’re not changing much.
For the Hawks, not too much change. Ryan Hartman looks to be drawing back in at center on the 4th line, and while that seems weird if he comes out with a wild hair on his ass because of a healthy scratch everyone will be happy. Top Cat will continue to have his time wasted with Patrick Sharp and Tommy Wingels and on the wrong side. At least until the Hawks need a goal and he’s vaulted into the top six. So the second period.
The pairings could look like anything, though after giving up a touchdown and PAT it’s unlikely Q will dress seven d-men again. Look for Kempny to continue to sit for no reason other than REASONS. Crow gets the start.
The Rangers are a team that can play awfully fast when on song. That used to be a good thing for the Hawks. It probably isn’t anymore. But this defense isn’t very quick other than Skjei and ShattenKevin either, so they could trade chances all night. In theory, the Hawks should have more finish. But that’s hardly a sure thing.
Game #19 Preview
There can be little doubt that Henrik Lundqvist is going to go down as this generation’s finest goalie. He really doesn’t need any more to his Hall of Fame claims then pointing to Dan Girardi and saying, “I had to clean up after this useless dope for years and our team kept making the playoffs thanks to it.” That’s a first-ballot resume right there.
In the past 10 years, of all goalies to have played 400 games or more, only Tuukka Rask has a better save-percentage than Hank. If you lower it to 300 games over the past 10 years, the list expands to Tim Thomas, Braden Holtby, Cory Schneider, and Sergei Bobrovsky. But none of those guys have come anywhere near Lundqvist’s 634 games. Throw out the last two years and Hank would be carrying a .921 SV% over that time.
But it’s the last two years that are the worry for Rangers fans, and the organization itself. Two years ago, Hank’s SV% overall dipped to .910, which isn’t even league-average. This year it’s .905 so far, which just straight up sucks. More worrying is that Lundqvist’s even-strength save-percentages have fallen off a cliff. For the past seven years leading up to ’16-’17, Hank never had an even-strength save-percentage under .928, which is just about unconscious. Last year that dropped to .918, and this year it’s .908 so far, which again, straight up sucks.
Hank turns 36 later this year, and the numbers for goalies that old the past ten years aren’t going to inspire confidence in the blue-clad, pepperoni-smelling masses on Broadway. The average SV% of goalies who played over 40 games past the age of 35 is .907. There are some outliers here, of course. Tim Thomas won a Vezina at 36, but he didn’t have anywhere near the NHL miles that Hank does now. Craig Anderson was awfully good last year at 35, but he only played half a season. Roberto Luongo turned in above-average seasons at 35 and 36, and certainly he’s probably the best comp to Lundqvist. But Bob has also seen it all fall apart on him the past season and this quarter of one. Martin Brodeur was able to be league-average in his late-30s, but league-average isn’t going to save this Rangers outfit.
Which leaves the Rangers in something of a pickle. Hank is signed for three more years at $8.5 million. If the team decided he can do no more than split starts, and that’s hardly a ridiculous conclusion at this point, there isn’t a lot of room to bring in another. A team can’t spend $11 or $12 million on just two goalies. Which means the Rangers are going to have to develop one or keep shuffling in rehab projects, like they’ve done with Antti Raanta before and are attempting to do with Ondrej Pavelec now.
There might be some hope on that front. The Rangers have a prospect they’re pretty keen on. One is Igor Shestyorkin, who put up a .940 in the KHL last and is on track to do so again. To be fair, he’s also playing behind the powerhouse St. Petersburg there, but hey. .940 is .940. But they’d have to get him over here and get him acclimated to the North American rink and game. He’s only 21, so there’s time on his side, but it might not be on the Rangers’.
Either way, it would be truly shitty to watch Hank rot his way out of the end of his career. He was too good behind not good enough Rangers teams to get all that he deserved. He’s won one Vezina, which seems an utter crime. He’s only been to one Final, which also doesn’t seem fair. And he’s unlikely to add to either.
Game #19 Preview
