Game #22 Preview Suite
Something I like to do at the landmarks of every season. Most of these are the players that should win certain awards on analytic bases. But they probably won’t. And remember, the “quarter-pole” is when there’s a quarter of the race or season left, and you’ll hear plenty make this mistake. Including Pat Foley on Sunday night, which should never happen considering who is broadcast partner is. Anyway…
Hart Trophy – MVP: Conor McDavid or Patrice Bergeron
The problem with MVP debates in every sport in this country is that they split between “Player Of The Year” candidates, which is what the award should be, and some nebulous, indefinable “What This Player Means To His Team” connotation. And no one is going to hear the other side, and I’m one of them. As it seems to me, “most valuable” means “has the most value,” it’s simple. And you’ll never be able to define what would happen if you remove a player from a team without any doubt. Call me a lunatic, but removing the best player from any team is probably going to irreparably damage it.
Anyway, Connor McDavid is the best player in the league. So you don’t have to overthink it. Yes, a section of Avalanche fans (ones with names like “Anthrax”) are going to come running with weaponry in hand about Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon, who should have won it last year. They have each other and Gabriel ThreeYaksAndADog. McDavid has been playing with Nugent-Hopkins and a various sculptures made of boogers.
You could also give this to Patrice Bergeron, and it will be the only time you can as he’s going to miss the next month. The Bruins have half of a roster and are still near the top of the Atlantic because Bergeron has kept their one line humming. See what happens to Brad Marchand now.
Vezina – Best Goalie: Pekka Rinne
I don’t like it any more than you, but he’s been the best goalie. He’s got the best overall SV% of any starter, the best SV% at even-strength of any starter, and the best difference between his expected save-percentage and his actual save-percentage at evens. That’s a clean sweep.
Selke – Best Defensive Forward: Jonathan Marchessault
Ah, here’s where the fun begins. Normally, the Selke goes to whatever forward scores a lot and everyone knows wins a lot of draws, or it just goes to Patrice Bergeron. And Bergeron is never a wrong choice, but we can do better this year. If you’re looking for best defensive forward, then you want someone who keeps attempts down, keeps chances down, keeps scoring down. And Marchessault, and his linemates William Karlsson and Reilly Smith, are doing that better than anyone right now.
Marchessault leads all forwards in Corsi-against per 60, shots-against per 60, and expected goals-against per 60. Karlsson and Smith aren’t far behind him, so you can claim that’s all the line’s work. But any defensive forward is going to be hard to separate from the rest of his line. Marchessault is starting 51% of his shifts in the offensive zone, which is one of the lower marks in the league among forwards who have amassed 300 minutes of even-strength time. Anze Kopitar actually starts the least amount of shifts in the offensive zone, and his metrics aren’t that far behind Marchessault’s, so if you want to make a case for him I’d listen. Actually, I won’t, because Kings fans have spent so much time spilling out their bladders about how they get no award attention that they should all be punted into the ocean.
This award never goes to a winger though, otherwise Marian Hossa would have at least one. But if hockey voting is going to catch up to the rest of the world, it should. Marchessault is your clubhouse leader.
Norris Trophy – Best D-man: Justin Faulk
Yeah, that’s fucking right. I’m gonna hand this to a guy with just eight points. Because I’m fucking crazy. TALK TO ME WHN YOU’RE ON MY BLOCK.
The Norris suffers from a lack of definition as well. It almost always goes to the blue-liner who scores the most. And then there’s a nutcase faction that wants it to be the Rod Langway Award (James Mirtle’s term), which means figuring out who the best defensive defenseman is. And we can do that, but stick with me.
So you basically have to synthesize the two. A d-man’s job is over all 200 feet of the ice these days, so they have to be able to do both. And Faulk is doing it better than anyone.
Faulk has the league’s best Corsi-percentage and expected-goals percentage. He has the lowest Corsi, shots, and expected goals against per 60. While he plays on a possession monster of a team, he’s still well above the team-rate in all of this.
The knock is going to be the eight points. Fine. Faulk is shooting 1.7%, and he’s a career 6% shooter. That goals-total is going to shoot up. Faulk’s major problem is that his team is only shooting 6.8% while he’s on the ice, and given the lack of front-line scoring on the Canes, that might not improve that much to vault his assist totals to where anyone will notice him for this award.
But that’s out of Faulk’s hands. The things he can control, he’s dominated. And if we’re forward thinking and living in a world where Jacob deGrom wins a Cy Young with 10 wins and everyone is like, “Well of course he did because he was the best pitcher and the Mets are a Soviet era cartoon,” then we can do better with hockey’s awards.
Adam Hess and Rose Rankin stopped by to assist in this weeks edition, which actually had some relatively positive outcomes to discuss. As always, no subscription is required for the podcast after the jump.
First Screen Viewing
Lightning vs. Predators – 7pm
Well if you talk to anyone clad in yellow, this is your Final preview. If you talk to anyone who’s not, they’ll probably tell you that any dip in goaltending from Rinne and Saros will see the Preds short on scoring. But that’s another discussion for another time. This is another clash between two of the league’s Fab Five, so it’s worth seeing. The Bolts have won their last two but have had a slightly leaky problem (that happens to men of a certain age) given that Andrie Vasilevskiy is on the shelf for weeks and Louis Domingue is Louis Domingue. The Preds had lost three in a row but were able to take their free spot on the bingo card with the visit of the Kings on Saturday (it’s what you’re supposed to do to the Kings). The Preds clocked the Bolts pretty hard at the beginning of the month with a 4-1 win in Tampa. So enjoy the last one of these. Unless they play in June. Which they won’t.
Second Screen Viewing
Blue Jackets vs. Leafs – 6pm
Did you know the Jackets are 12-6-2? I didn’t, and I’m guessing you didn’t either. And I bet you’re asking yourself if it matters that they are. And whether you should care or not. And I’m fairly sure the answer to both of those is a hard no. They’re first in the Metro because someone has to be, and the Penguins have decided to not care and the Caps have decided to still be drunk and the Flyers have decided to still be the Flyers and all the New York area teams blow and can’t decide what they are. It doesn’t matter because the Jackets two best players are already checking out property listings elsewhere, and one or both might have to go in the middle of the season to sink the whole thing. And Torts is bitching about how much he hates the league and everyone in it. All of this sounds like something that will see the Jackets balloon sink at some point. Anyway, they play the Leafs. Who are definitely not sinking even without Matthews. Somehow this is all a referendum on William Nylander and the economic system at large. Whatever.
Other Games
Stars vs. Rangers – 6pm
Sabres vs. Penguins – 6pm
Capitals vs. Canadiens – 6:30
Panthers vs. Senators – 6:30
Kings vs. Blues – 7pm
Knights vs. Flames – 8pm
Jets vs. Canucks – 9pm
Who was good, who was bad, and the in-between on another week on the Good Ship Blackhawks.
The Dizzying Highs
Brandon Saad – In a week where your team only scores four goals that involved beating an actual goalie (so not Kahun’s empty-netter) and you’ve got two of them, I’d say you’re making a difference. Saad also spent the week playing on three different lines. His Corsi-relative an scoring-change-relative numbers against the Kings and Wild were miles ahead of his teammates, even if most of those games were spent with the nuclear option of Kane and Toews. But hey, if they’re Khalil Mack-ing people around the ice (it’s a verb now), no one’s going to care. His goal last night is actually what you think of when you think of a Saad goal, streaking past a confused d-man who only made one wrong half move, holding him off with barely a thought, and getting around the goalie. Yes, maybe it should happen more often. But it’s happening now, and maybe it will continue. Let’s just be happy about it, all right? All right.
The Terrifying Lows
Duncan Keith – If you’re going by metrics, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook spent the week getting their brains beaten in by whatever opposition was on the ice. They didn’t top a 40% share of attempts in any of the three games, nor in scoring chance share, and on Friday against L.A.–who are staffed by interns on quaaludes, essentially–they managed an 18% mark in scoring chance share. In the words of Muhammad Ali, “THAT’S BAD!” And not like he meant it. If you want to be fair, and you do because this is Duncan Keith we’re talking about, he and Seabrook have been taking more defensive zone shifts than usual. And their ice-flipping days are probably over. But the Hawks also probably need something more than them turtling when their on the ice if they’re going to go anywhere. Pairing them together isn’t helping, but we also saw what happened when Keith was paired with someone he was supposed to take a backseat to in the aggressive department. I’m not sure what the answers are here, and whatever they are and are discovered I’m fairly sure Keith isn’t going to like them.
The Creamy Middles
Corey Crawford – Hmm, Crow’s back to a .922 SV%. The Hawks took five of the six points on offer in his last three starts when he put up only a .981 SV%, including his first shutout of the season. Isn’t that strange how that works. But this is what you expect of Corey, or at least what we expect, given that he’s been, y’know, one of the five best goalies in the league for like five seasons now. Sure, don’t make him have to come up with 39 saves every night. But this team isn’t going to get him down around 27 or 28 a night either. They’ll go as far as he does. Like this, that’s five of six points.
The Rockford IceHogs are sitting in San Antonio with plenty to think about. Chicago’s AHL affiliate has its second game in four days against the Rampage coming up Tuesday night. Rockford will be attempting to snap a three-game skid, its longest of the young season.
It wasn’t a particularly memorable weekend for the piglets. After dropping a 3-1 decision to Grand Rapids Wednesday morning, Rockford flew down to Texas and were dominated in a 5-1 loss to the Stars. The following evening, the offensively-challenged Rampage beat the Hogs 2-1.
With the recent setbacks, Rockford is now 8-7-1-2 on the season. That .528 points percentage is good for sixth place in the Central Division.
In three games, the IceHogs scored three goals. They were 1-14 on the power play. The weekend did not produce a lot of offense in the way of shots, either. Rockford recorded just 16 shots on goal against Texas, then followed that up with a 15-shot performance in San Antonio.
To be fair, the IceHogs were missing some players. However, Rockford got solid goal-tending that had them even with its Lone Star opponents through 40 minutes on both Friday and Saturday. Texas out shot the Hogs 14-2 in the third period to pull away; Rockford mustered six third-period shots against the Rampage.
Jordan Schroeder got back into the lineup after missing nine games, finding the twine in his return Friday night. Tyler Sikura missed his third and fourth games with an illness. Anton Forsberg stayed home to recover from a similar illness.
Highmore Grounded
The organization got some bad news this week. Matthew Highmore, who injured his shoulder October 28 in a fall at the BMO Harris Bank Center against Manitoba, will be out for the next four to six months following surgery last Wednesday.
Highmore had seven points (3 G, 4 A) in eight games before leaving that game in the second period. He is one of the Hogs young prospects who can make things happen around the net, so his game is going to be missed.
King Quotes
Derek King is hoping to get the ship righted starting Tuesday in San Antonio. Here are some of his observations during the losing streak.
On the Hogs problems getting started in Wednesday morning’s 3-1 loss in Grand Rapids:
“We were walking through the game there for a while. We were standing still, they were setting the pace.”
On Jacob Nilsson, who scored the only goal in the loss to the Griffins:
“(Nilsson)’s a pretty solid player. He’s not going to toe-drag and be super flashy out there, but he’ll get the points when he gets the chance to. He kills penalties, he’s a good guy on the power play, he’s a good faceoff guy. He’s an all-around complete player and I’m going to look to him to lead this team, here.”
On Texas dominating play throughout a 5-1 loss Friday night:
“We were standing still watching them. It was kind of like watching Gretzky or Lemieux out there. When you watch them play you just kind of stand still in awe and watch them play. We gave them (Texas) a lot of respect. We should have been clogging them up like we wanted to and we were just standing there watching.”
On trying to break the current losing streak in Tuesday’s rematch with San Antonio:
“Like I say to the guys, I’ll put up reminders and these are the instructions for tonight. So, you’ve got to read the instructions. If you’re trying to build a drawer from IKEA and you’re not reading the instructions, good luck getting that put together. We put a game plan together; let’s follow it. Sometimes we stray from it and that’s (Saturday’s 2-1 loss) what happens.”
Recaps
Friday, November 16-Texas 5, Rockford 1
The Stars, who pressured Collin Delia all evening, broke open a tie game in the third period with four goals. The Hogs goalie kept out 26 of 27 shots in the first 40 minutes before the dam broke.
Texas opened the scoring 6:25 into the contest while the teams were skating four to a side. Denis Gurianov swiped the puck from Rockford defenseman Darren Raddysh just inside the Stars blue line. Gurianov led an odd man rush the other way, setting up Roope Hintz for the score.
Despite being out shot 27-14 in the first 40 minutes, the IceHogs pulled even late in the second period. Viktor Ejdsell had thrown a shot attempt wide of the Texas net. Dylan Sikura chased it down behind the cage, passing to Jordan Schroeder as Sikura came around the end boards. Schroeder, making his return to action after missing nine games, tied the game from the right post at 18:44 of the middle frame.
If the Stars had dominated the game everywhere but on the scoreboard in the first two periods, they remedied that expeditiously in the final twenty minutes. While Texas captain Travis Morin screened Joni Tuulola, Tyler Fedun drew twine on a long-distance wrist shot fifteen seconds into the third period for a 2-1 advantage.
Rockford mustered just two shots to the Stars 14 in the third period. Texas got a goal from Morin at the midway point of the frame, then another from Samuel Lebarge 37 seconds later. Colton Hargrove’s exclamation point on the rout came 15:25 into the period.
For the game, the IceHogs were out shot 41-16. The relentless offensive pressure was too much for Delia in the final period but he still made 36 saves in the contest.
Saturday, November 17-San Antonio 2, Rockford 1
The IceHogs were out of sorts against the AHL’s worst team, dropping their third straight game despite a solid effort by Kevin Lankinen in goal. The rookie, returning from a spell with the Indy Fuel, stopped 19 of 21 shots but didn’t get the support he needed at the other end of the ice.
Rockford experienced a bevy of issues in getting pucks to Rampage goalie Jordan Binnington. Two early power plays yielded nothing in the way of shots, and the two teams spent most of the opening period throwing the puck to each other or chasing it around the ice.
San Antonio took a 1-0 lead at the 14:35 mark of the second period after Graham Knott was called for holding. Austin Poganski knocked a loose puck under the pads of Lankinen to put the Rampage on top.
The Hogs came up with an answer a few minutes later, also while on the man advantage. Carl Dahlstom fielded a pass from Anthony Louis and sent a shot from the point that snaked past Binnington. Justin Auger provided cover from the front of the crease and Rockford tied the game at 18:05.
The Rampage took advantage of a neutral ice turnover midway through the third period to regain the lead. Adam Musil beat Lankinen from the slot at 9:07, assisted by Tanner Kaspick and Joey LaLeggia.
Musil’s goal held up; the IceHogs could muster only 15 goals on the evening. Lankinen was brought to the bench for a sixth skater, but Rockford was unable to utilize the additional manpower and the clock ran out on the Hogs.
This Week
Rockford gets a second shot at the Rampage Tuesday night before a brief return to the BMO Friday. The Hogs host the Chicago Wolves on Hockey Fights Cancer Night in the first tilt of a three-game weekend. Rockford visits Milwaukee Saturday night and Chicago Sunday afternoon.
Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for my thoughts on the IceHogs all season long.
The Blackhawks and Wild played in the least interesting Chicago-Minnesota matchup in the Windy City tonight, but in what is hopefully a harbinger of what is to come at Soldier Field, our hometown boys brought home the win. But when I say “least interesting,” I really mean it, cuz this was a snoozer. Let’s do it:
– The most important takeaway for the Hawks in this one is that they had what appeared to be a functioning NHL power play. Their first goal of the night came with the extra man, and it was the result of some beautiful puck movement that opened up a passing lane for Patrick Kane to hit a wide open Jonathan Toews in front of the net, and all the captain had to do was stand there and let the puck hit his stick. They got two other shots at the power play in the game and didn’t convert, but still looked more competent in that regard, which is a major step in the right direction.
– Toews and Saad both having the “bounce-back” campaigns we needed to see from them is extremely encouraging. Both of them were excellent tonight and seemed to be on the ice when the most excitement was happening. It would be a lot better if these two were doing it for a more competitive team, but for now we will take the best players on these squad performing well.
– Corey Crawford is all the way back. He was absolutely huge tonight, and he needed to be huge after the first period. The Hawks did play well in that opening frame, but still lost the Corsi battle, and from there it only got worse. Minnesota had 56% of the shots in the second period and 62% in the third. Obviously part of that is Score Effects, but overall the Hawks were not the better team tonight and Crawford was the difference.
– Biggest takeaway for me from the first full (kinda, I was flipping back and forth after the Bears started) game I’ve watched in the Colliton Era is that the Hawks are playing a bit simpler than they were with Quenneville. They just seem to have a bit more pep because they’re just playing more instinctive hockey and not trying to coordinate a system. Maybe that’s partly confirmation bias based on what I thought they needed to do after Q got the kick, but there is still an obviously different approach and I think it is effective.
vs. 
RECORDS: Wild 12-6-2 Hawks 7-8-5
PUCK DROP: 5pm
TV: WGN, NHL Network for those outside the 606
ANIMALS STRIKING CURIOUS POSES: Hockey Wilderness
After playing two games that would be considered a war crime if you made any prisoner watch them, the Hawks will get a chance to open up things a little tonight. Or this afternoon. 5pm exists in that nebulous area where it depends on the time of year whether it’s night or afternoon. Let’s go with evening. Anyway, they’ll face one of the hotter teams in the league in the Minnesota Wild.
This is where other people would tell you that the Wild mean business this time. That their faster ways are indicative of a team that knows it’s on the precipice of being blown up and has maybe one more chance and is finally going to take it. And I’m supposed to tell you as long as Devan Dubnyk is healthy (and ugly) and doing Doobie Brother things, the Wild have a puncher’s chance. That’s what I’m supposed to say.
But you know what I’m going to say. This is just more of the same from Bruce “Are You Gonna Finish That?” Boudreau and his charges. His “GO GO GO BURRITO DORITO FIESTA ANTIPASTO” method of coaching works great in the regular season, especially one like this that’s been so open. And his team will play harder than most everyone who couldn’t locate a fuck to give come February. And then his lack of any structure or Plan B (or even Plan A) will doom the Wild to getting it upside the head by the Jets or Predators or Sharks. That’s how this goes. You know how this goes. You’ve seen this before.
This version features a Mikael Granlund shooting 27%, which has him making an assault on his career-high in goals already. It’s 26 if you must know. Zach Parise has returned from whatever bionic implant procedure he had to have most recently and is averaging close to a point per game. Mikko Koivu drank the mermaid’s tear and is also near a point per game on a line with Parise. All of this sure sounds sustainable!
The Wild do have something of a newish weapon on defense in a fully operational Matthew Dumba. He had 50 points last year, bet you didn’t know that, but he’s already at eight goals so far this term. He’s a real weapon on the power play where his shot is quite powerful and accurate, so hopefully the Hawks d-men take notes. Ryan Suter has been happy to cede the puck-moving responsibilities to him on the top pairing, so hopefully Duncan Keith takes notes on that (he won’t). Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin remain one of the more underrated second pairings in the league, where Spurgeon’s size doesn’t preclude him from moving the puck in the right direction most of the time.
Dubnyk started last night in a loss to the Sabres, so the Hawks may benefit from the rare appearance of Alex Stalock (Alex Stalock…at this time of year…at this time of day…in this part of the country….localized in the United Center). But then again the Hawks couldn’t really solve whatever parking lot attendant was backstopping the Kings on Friday. And also Boudreau likes to turn his starters into paste by March so don’t be shocked if Gabby runs Dubs right back out there.
The statistical oddity about the Wild, and this was the case last year as well, is that they don’t get the majority of attempts but they do get the majority of good chances. They’re below water in Corsi but one of the league’s best in xGF%. They limit chances and their high-rate of speed in the top nine does get them to the net. This became a huge problem for the Hawks in their game at The X when their slow defense couldn’t protect a lead against these forwards when they were fully off the leash. Hard to see how that gets better tonight.
The Hawks will have a bit of a reshuffle, with the nuclear option of Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews, and Patrick Kane forming a top line and Nick Schmaltz and Alex DeBrincat dragging around the carcass of Artem Anisimov. Fortin-Kampf-Kahun will form an at least quick third line, which could be something of a checking unit if need be. It won’t score much, but it could create some havoc. We’ll see. Jan Rutta comes in from the cold to partner Gustav Forsling, with Stan Bowman in the suite with fingers and toes crosses that tonight is finally the night his vision comes to life of that pairing. Corey Crawford gets the start.
The Hawks get a schedule advantage tonight, not having played last night and waiting for the Wild who did. They get a backup possibly. They put up something of a beer fart of an effort on Friday, but the Wild are not going to sink and trap and try and keep things quiet like the Kings and Blues did. The Hawks don’t really have the creativity, especially in the back, to work their way through those kind of trenches consistently. It’ll be more open tonight. But it also might be too open for a defense that can’t really move or do well under extreme pressure.
So the Hawks struggle against real conservatism. They can’t handle high-pressure. That’s just about every team in the league covered.
Fuck me.
Game #21 Preview Suite
As Brent Burns racks up Norris finalist nominations and an award, continues to put up record shooting numbers and dominate play with a Stanley Cup contender, Wild fans must look at Charlie Coyle like that Christmas gift from that aunt you never liked that sits in the closet. It was a time and place for something wonderful. It became a a shoe-buffer.
Coyle has never been bad. He’s carved out pretty much a third-line role. He’s floated between center and wing for years, playing both capably. And yet you see the size and speed and hands and you wonder how it’s amounted only one season where he averaged more than a point every two games. There is a feeling of something missed.
What’s particularly galling, is that at 6-3, 220 pounds, Coyle has never managed to put up more than two shots per game in any season. He’s come close only once. With that size and mobility, Coyle should be able to get wherever he wants in the offensive zone. He should be a player who can create his own shot consistently, and yet he’s been subservient to whoever his linemates are.
It’s more infuriating because Coyle has a great shot and scored at a high-percentage. He has a career SH% of 11.2. That’s probably due to Coyle mostly scoring from in close when he does get to the net, as his stature suggests he should at a regular basis. But why isn’t he there more often? Just for giggles, Burns has been averaging three to four shots per game and he plays on defense.
In essence, Coyle is the Wild’s Brandon Saad. You’ll see a game here or there where he looks unplayable. And then you wonder why it isn’t there for the next five games.
But unlike Saad, Coyle hasn’t been identified as a staple of future Wild teams. The Wild brought in a new GM this past summer in Paul Fenton. His charge will be to get the Wild to be something more than the background scenery they’ve been…well, since they came into existence. What the Wild lack, and have lacked, it a front-line forward or d-man, at least one to pair with Ryan Suter. They also lack cap space.
Coyle probably doesn’t get them either. But if he’s going to have trade value, it’s probably at the deadline. Coyle has another year left on his deal after this one, and he’s one of the non-crippling cap hits on the Wild (all too rare). He’s only at $3.2M. If there’s a GM that thinks he can unlock the 55+ point player Coyle can and should be, that’s a snip.
Fenton is going to want to make changes somewhere. The Wild need some sort of shakeup, or at least that was the thinking after yet another first-round exit last year. The Dubnyk De Soleil has never gotten them much, and there has to be more. There also isn’t a lot of flexibility. Parise and Suter aren’t going anywhere. Neither are Dumba, Spurgeon. Niederreiter is over $5M and would be harder to move, and is also signed until 2022. Jason Zucker was just re-upped. They’ve tried to move Jonas Brodin for years, with not much luck.
Coyle will either disappoint and be moved along as a show of trying to improve things, or at least change them. Or he’ll turn it around finally, and prove to be a pillar of whatever the Wild are going to be. He’s still only 26. Either way, the waiting is almost over for Wild fans and Coyle.
Game #21 Preview Suite
