Everything Else

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica 

It’s unfair, and nearly impossible, to get a handle on what kind of job Jeremy Colliton is doing after 17 games. I could sit here and say that the Hawks don’t quit even when they’ve been down for what is it, 13 straight games? And I could say that he doesn’t have anything to work with, especially on the blue line. I could say that they’re not getting saves (though they did tonight to a point). I could say a lot of things.

But then there’s the starts. And whatever the problems are on the roster, and they are numerous, there’s no way we can sit here and say that the Hawks haven’t consistently come out unready to play. You can’t fall behind for as many games in a row as it is now, and usually my multiple goals, and claim otherwise. And that has to be coaching. Or preparation. Whatever you want to call it.

Now maybe it’s on the players, who got one coach fired and don’t seem to be responding to the next one until there’s a certain level of embarrassment/professionalism/both. But you’d think you’d find a way to get through to everyone, veterans and neophytes alike, to get that to kick in when the first puck drops. It’s been a month since they have. That’s on someone.

Sure, lack of talent is the biggest culprit. But then explain an effort like this from one of your alternate captains:

Maybe Seabrook is so used to getting beat to the outside that he was just turning and getting ready for it. But facing the wrong way and just leaving your stick out there in the hopes that Kyle Connor would somehow trip himself or something, that’s a shit-assed effort. That’s I-couldn’t-give-a-fuck effort. And that’s from a player playing catch-up most nights when he does care.

And he still gets 22 minutes of time. Now, perhaps Colliton fears he simply can’t go to the mat with any of his veterans, but at some point that bleeds from reverence to no one’s accountable. And that’s only going to get worse if it goes unchecked. Maybe the perception would be Seabrook is the easy target, because Quenneville scratched him once last year. But it also wouldn’t make it much of a shock for the rest of the team. Colliton has played tough guy/bad cop the last time the Hawks were outclassed in Winnipeg in the press. At some point that has to happen with the team.

That doesn’t mean going Jim Fucking Boylen on the Hawks, I don’t care about bag skates. I don’t care about turning over postgame spreads or anything like that. But someone is going to have to pay for any part of this with ice time, and stripping it from a young player isn’t the answer.

Fin.

The Two Obs

-The other mark against Colliton is that the Hawks continue to not have any communication in the defensive zone. Don’t fool yourself, switching from the zone system the Hawks used to play to the man system they want now isn’t like going from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The principles are at least based on the same thing. It’s amazing how many times you look and you’ll see the Hawks have everyone covered, and then simple movement from an attacker and a lack of talking either causes the Hawks to not switch guys or completely ignore someone on the other side of the ice. That isn’t about talent. That isn’t anyone getting beat. That’s just a lack of attention to detail.

-There isn’t much else to point out, because you don’t learn anything when the game is over after 15 minutes and the only reason it becomes anything of a contest is because the team leading is already making plans for the night after the showers. so let’s talk about Eddie Olczyk’s and Pat Foley’s race to be the next Hawk Harrelson.

It’s clear Eddie’s war on analytics is directed at Stan Bowman, and perhaps at whoever else told Eddie he couldn’t be a coach or GM because of his dismissal of them. We’ve spilled countless words on the idiocy of this “fight.” Mostly because every other sport, including soccer by the way, has long ago accepted that there is useful information to be found within them and it helps build a team to win.

And Pat and Eddie’s contention that they don’t tell you who wins battles, as close as it is to Hawk’s TWTW mantra, is quite simply wrong. Because it tells you who gets the puck. Which is generally a good idea, or so I thought.

I’m resigned to the rest of the season being Eddie essentially reading his resume on air a la Mark Jackson a few years ago on NBA broadcasts, and Foley being his hype-man. I can only hope Eddie keeps displaying the reasons why no one should ever hire him.

-Also their 10 minute discussion of the 80s Oilers and 90s Penguins wasn’t all that far off from Hawk’s love letters to Yaz.

-Last point, Olczyk did claim that they both think the goaltending has been good. Crawford is at .901. Ward is at .888. They have the ninth-worst SV% at evens and the 4th worst overall. So yeah, it’s been great.

-As for the on the ice. it’s clear that Dylan Strome has use. How much, don’t know yet, and his learning curve is going to be longer. He’s got the hands and vision but he’s going to have to wait until his anticipation and instincts get him to the spots he needs faster than his feet get him there now. That can happen. It may only lead him to being a poor man’s Brad Richards, but that’ll play. It certainly is going to take more than the 50 games the Coyotes gave him.

Connor Murphy is a clearly more confident player when he’s not worried about his coach painting a big, red #4 on his face and then beating Murphy over the head with a shovel every time he makes the tiniest mistake. I look forward to what it looks like when he’s up to game-speed.

Onwards…

Everything Else

First Screen Viewing

Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

The team that should have really put the hard press on John Tavares hosts the one that got him. The Canes haven’t really had the surge you keep expecting from them, except we’ve been expecting that surge for like three years. The Leafs have dropped off the pace of the Lightning, everyone has, but are on the verge of holding off the Sabres. The Canes are already five points off the pace for a playoff spot so they need whatever higher gear they’re hoping for now. Two deep teams here so this one should be hammer and tongs…as much as any game in December can be.

Second Screen Viewing

Oilers vs. Avalanche – 8pm

The Oilers have had the dead cat bounce from a new coach that the other teams that fired their coach haven’t managed. They’ve toned things down obviously under Ken Hitchcock, concentrating things on their own end as is his way. The Avs are maybe the big entertainers of the league, and certainly have the one line that is.  The Avs are currently cleaving the assumed Preds-Jets Axis in the Central, so at some point they have to be taken very seriously.

Other Games

Kings vs. Sabres – 6pm

Coyotes vs. Bruins – 6pm

Canucks vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Red Wings vs. Capitals – 6:30

Panthers vs. Blues – 7pm

Senators vs. Predators – 7pm

Canadiens vs. Wild – 7pm

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 9-17-5   Jets 18-9-2

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

WARM JETS: Arctic Ice Hockey

When you’ve lost seven in a row for the second time in a season, and really the second time in about five weeks, I think it’s healthy to play a team that’s better than you at every single position. It’s just crazy enough to work! It’s going to be an extremely busy week for the Hawks, and I can’t see how that’s a good thing if only because they’re going to plague society with their brand of hockey four times in the next six days. It kicks off in Manitoba tonight, where they just were and pretty much got flambed until the Jets completely turned off, and then the Jets will be here again Friday. The Hawks might just be getting deeper and deeper into the hot dog machine before they come up for anything resembling air again.

Not much has changed between these two teams since they last did this in the last game of November. The Hawks haven’t won,  and the Jets have only dropped one in the last five, somehow getting shut out by the Blues at home. Maybe they did that just to tease the Hawks and let the Blues pass them in the standings. They’re just that vindictive.

At this point, there isn’t much to inform you about the Jets. You now that they’re four lines of fury. You know that the top six is probably the best in hockey. You know that Adam Lowry and Matthieu Perreault form one of the best checking lines in hockey. You know that Jack Roslovic on the fourth line is going to burst out at some point soon. You know the defense is a little shaky, and especially this season, but that it matters little when the forwards are this good. You know that Connor Hellebuyck has been having a dodgy season, but since giving up five to the Hawks (mostly after the Jets had kicked their feet up and put on sunglasses), he’s given up just six goals in his last four appearances and three in his last three. And you know that plenty of other goalies of late have used the Hawks to remember what it feels like to feel good about oneself. The Hawks have become the ugly best friend to the rest of the league.

So yeah, the Jets come into this one rolling, pretty much healthy, and needing to keep pace with the Predators and Avalanche at the top of the Central. All that spells “FUUUUUUUCKK” for the Hawks.

As for the Hawks, a couple changes. Artem Anisimov is in a dark room somewhere, so David Kampf is moving back to center…Patrick Kane? Oh dear lord. Chris Kunitz looks like he’s coming back in to fuck things up, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Alex Fortin.

Gustav Forsling isn’t eligible to come off the IR yet, so Brandon Manning should keep his place in the lineup with Brent Seabrook, at least for a while. The only pairing that Jeremy Colliton seemed inclined to keep together on Sunday was Connor Murphy and Erik Gustafsson, and everyone else rotated (though some of that was due to Manning missing a good chunk).

There’s nothing I can say to make you think this one will go well. It probably won’t. The Hawks just aren’t cut out for this type of thing anymore. Maybe you catch the Jets in a midseason malaise or Hellebuyck has a game-long sneezing fit. But hey, we’re in this together.

 

Game #32 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

It’s hard to have a contending team in this age of the NHL without the accompanying panic over future salary cap problems. Every year you don’t get the parade, as the Jets did not last year when they were more than good enough, the fear grows that financial obligations will keep you from getting one at all. You don’t get that many rolls of the dice, and everyone is watching the big money-ticker.

Which leaves the Jets in something of a sore spot with Jacob Trouba. He has been their top-pairing defenseman for years now, in that he takes the toughest assignments and the hardest shifts. While Dustin Byfuglien gets the headlines and the points, it’s Trouba that the Jets have decided to make the foundation, at least on the back end.

Trouba will also be a restricted free agent after the season, This will be the third time that Trouba has entered restricted free agency, and previous negotiations have not always been cordial. His deal before this one was actually signed during the season, as negotiations dragged out past training camp. Trouba is probably in no mood to cut the Jets some slack, and his desire to remain in Winnipeg long-term has always been a doubt. But then…who among us?

And that’s where things get a touch tricky. After the season, Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor are out of their entry-level deals. Laine especially is going to command $10M plus, or so you’d think. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be around McDavid money after his entry-level deal expired. And players may be more inclined to take the William Nylander route than they were before. Connor will not come cheap either, as he’s likely to be coming off back-to-back 30-goal seasons.

The Jets will have $27 million or so in space, so it would seem possible to keep everyone, at least for a short time. But if the three big draws all come back for what you’d figure, that won’t leave a lot of room for role players like Brandon Tanev, Nic Petan or Brendan Lemieux, or Ben Chiarot. And depth is what makes the Jets what they are, or at least it’s a big reason.

Which makes what the Jets judge Trouba at so curious. He’s not a dynamic scorer from the back end. He doesn’t really drive the play, so much as ride along with it. He’s not Subban or Karlsson or Doughty back there. That doesn’t mean he isn’t vital, but if he’s looking for major dollars, that will be the first cudgel the Jets go to in talks.

Another thing the Jets might look at is that in last year’s playoffs, Trouba really struggled with the Knights. The whole team did, to be fair, but throwing up 40% CF%s in the biggest games in franchise history is an odd way of demonstrating you’re the key log in future Cup runs. That was only one spring, and perhaps this one Trouba turns that around.

So what do you value Trouba at? Again, he’s restricted, and we know that no one is going to come with an offer sheet (though the Hawks may want to seriously think about it). If you’re looking at the highest-paid defensemen in the league, all of them score and produce offense. Ryan Suter is ninth on the list now, and though he doesn’t score like he used to, he did when he signed that deal. You have to get to Marc-Eduoard Vlasic’s $7M per year deal to find a player similar in style. Do the Jets fancy Trouba to be that?

Troubs might, which would leave $20M for whatever else the Jets want to do. And they may only get it for one year. Given how things have gone between the two camps, Trouba for sure wants to test what unrestricted free agency looks like. Or he’s going to ask the Jets to make it worth his while to forego that chance for a few years.

A lot is going to pivot on what the Jets and Trouba do in the playoffs. And with every success and dominant performance, it may actually get worse for the Jets.

 

Game #32 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Derek Gagnon is a contributor at ArcticIce.com. Follow him on Twitter @DerekGagnon1.

Overhanging the Jets season is a sort of “Cap-ocalypse” in the summer. Does this season have a feeling of now or never?
Not so much, though there is a feeling that this group will see some change next year. This team is still young, and players like Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine should only improve as time goes by. The way things are going, the Jets should be a contender for a number of years to come.
With the cap going to $83 million or so, the Jets have something around $27 million in space now, with Trouba, Laine, Connor seemingly the must-keeps, along with a few other free agents. It seems doable, Is it?
I think it’s doable, though some sacrifices will have to be made along the way. Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor look to be Jets long term, and will get paid handsomely on their next contracts. There are some questions on defense though. The Jacob Trouba contract situation has been a concern for years, and with only one more season of restricted-free agent status left after this season, if they aren’t able to sign him long term it may be time to move him in the off-season. Tyler Myers is another situation that needs addressing. He’s being paid $5.5 million  this year to play third pairing minutes, and not play them overly well. As an unrestricted free agent, I would expect the Jets to cut ties, but they may not if the Trouba contract isn’t long-term.

The cap being projected to go up to $83 million definitely works in the Jets favor, as that extra room will come in handy. Even then, it might mean more players on entry-level contracts on the team, rather than guys like Brandon Tanev. Mason Appleton and Kristian Vesalainen are a couple of names that could benefit from a cap crunch.

Why hasn’t Jack Roslovic popped more? Huge pedigree, big excitement, is it just the fourth line role he has right now?
Right now, I think it’s a combination of a lack of minutes and the insistence he play center, where he seems to be struggling. While dominant at the AHL level, it just hasn’t clicked at the NHL level yet. Things seemed to be progressing when he was briefly reunited with the former Manitoba Moose (AHL) line of Nic Petan, Roslovic and Mason Appleton, but Petan was dropped from the lineup in favor of Brendan Lemieux and there hasn’t been chemistry. Playing an average of 7:43 per night doesn’t help either.
Is there real worry about Connor Hellebuyck two months plus into the season? Or just negotiating the following season after playing deep into the playoffs for the first time and he’ll bounce back in plenty of time?
I think that it actually might be the change in pads that has plagued Connor Hellebuyck. The smaller chest protector seems to be taking some getting used to for Hellebuyck, which has seen more rebounds and the occasional tentative effort. I have full confidence that he will adapt and overcome, as he has exhibited his ability to be great at every level he has played at, including the NHL. His last three starts have been quite solid, stopping a combined 89 of 92 shots, so perhaps that corner has been turned.

 

Game #32 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Because if you didn’t, you soon will!

Every Hawks trip to Manitoba is now guaranteed to come with Eddie Olczyk reminiscing about playing with the Jets, or more to the point trying to inflate what he meant to the Jets. If you thought it wasn’t bad enough that Olczyk did his best to co-opt the Hawks “Hockey Fights Cancer” night to be all about himself, he attempted the same a couple weeks ago when Winnipeg had theirs. But that’s fine, he can forward a lot of causes.

No, the problem is every time he arrives in Winnipeg, he makes sure everyone knows that he returns a conquering hero, with roses tossed at his feet. As if he was a legend that all 12 of the Jets fans who were alive and caring in the early 90s have pictures of in their homes, next to their portrait of the Queen.

So let’s clear that up. Olczyk spent two and a half seasons in The Peg. and then returned for another parts of two season after he did next to nothing in New York. He scored 95 goals and registered 201 points, which is fine enough. Then again, most everyone amassed a point per game back then. He ranks behind Laurie Boschman in career goals for the franchise. He’s not in the top-20 in points.

He was a nice player, and one that most wouldn’t have been able to pick out of lineup if wasn’t constantly getting in their face and telling them what a legend he was in their team’s colors.Of the 16K in the building tonight, maybe 1/16th of them would know Olczyk played there if he didn’t spend the entire pregame roaming the concourses and reminding every single one.

But that also won’t stop him from telling you what an ordeal it was to get traded there and deal with the harsh Manitoba winters, which every Jet has done. So it can’t be both.

Really what’s important for Olczyk is Olczyk, as always. You must know that he was a Jet, because if you don’t know that then the Jets are an irrelevant team. He defines them, at least according to him. Maybe they should give Pat Elynuik the same kind of treatment, as he put up the same numbers.

Who? Yes, exactly.

 

Game #32 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Notes: Anisimov didn’t make the trip, which is the reason you’re getting whatever the fuck that Kahun-Kampf-Kane thing is. It’ll be Strome and Top Cat with Kane by the end of the first, you just watch… Ward starts tonight, which means Crow gets the Pens tomorrow…Murphy seemed to flatten out Gustafsson again, as they were the only pairing that Collition kept together for the most part…it’s getting near decision-day on Manning and Rutta, and no one is going to take them off the Hawks’ hands so likely Rutta is headed to Rockford…what was Martinsen doing out there with a minute left on Sunday?

Notes: Perreault is questionable tonight…the second line is one of the few where metrics don’t matter, because Laine will outshoot whatever…we kind of hope Laine ends up with over 40 goals and less than 10 assists and watch HOCKEY MEN lose their mud over it…Sami Niku could replace Kulikov…Connor’s goal against the Flyers on Sunday was his first in the last 10 games…

 

Game #32 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

It would seem a near impossible task to ferret out who should stand atop the pile in a week when the Hawks have lost every game, a couple in bad fashion and a couple in heartbreaking fashion. But that is our charge, and why you come here, dear reader. Because we run the hard miles over the tough obstacles. Or something. Anyway…

The Dizzying Highs

Jonathan Toews, I guess? – I suppose it’s symbolic in a way. At a time when we thought we’d seen the last of Jonathan Toews bending a game to his will, to take over pretty much every shift and pretty much force a win from his team, he can’t do it. Not because the effort wasn’t enough, because it was. It’s just too much to ask one person on this team to lift it above the morass it’s created for itself. I’m sure afterwards, Patrick Kane looked at him, put an arm on his shoulder and said, “Y’see?” The numbers aren’t wholly impressive, as Toews racked up two goals and three points in the four games. But if you watched the games, especially in Vegas, it was a glimpse of what Tazer used to be every night. Winning every puck battle, forcing the puck up the ice and toward the net, creating things out of sheer want-to. It’s comforting to know that it’s still in the chamber. It’s dispiriting that the final amount of bullets, however many there may be, are wasted on this outfit. Will there be any left when it matters again?

The Terrifying Lows

Corey Crawford – It hurts more and more to keep doing this. But we can’t run from it. .901 is .901. And while he has no defense in front of him, there are other goalies in the league facing almost as many good chances as Crow is and doing more with them. David Rittich, for example, as the same xSV% at evens as Crow. His ES SV% is .943. Crow’s is .903.

It is a herculean task, what Crawford has been asked to do, of course. Step in from 10 months out in THE GREY and then stabilize a Hawks team that essentially looks like kindergarten recess in its own zone. Where was Andreas Martinsen going last night and what was he doing out there with a minute to go? Another time for that question.

Crow let the Hawks down in Vegas when they had actually fought well and played better and deservedly had taken the lead. Same in Anaheim. It’s not good enough. And maybe this was always going to be part of the process, that his recovery would be longer and uglier than we anticipated, and more to the point, hoped. Maybe the new pad restrictions are also combining with everything else to make for hard adjustments. The rebound control would suggest.  But the Hawks simply aren’t getting a save right now. And against the Ducks and Canadiens last night, he wasn’t tasked with an abnormal load.

Thankfully, there’s basically nothing riding on this season now, and the Hawks can spend it finding out if Crow can be saved (he almost certainly will round out again sometime) or whether they start have to plan for a transition of influence to Collin Delia (who’s seeing a similar workload in Rockford so at least they’re training him well).

The Creamy Middles

Patrick Kane – I’m not sure he cares. I’m not sure he’s got the patience to see out whatever this is (I know his dad doesn’t and he’s calling the shots). And there are still shifts where you can tell the give-a-shit meter has collected at the bottom. But he still makes goals happen, as he racked up points all three games this week and had two goals last night to bring the Hawks back into it. While we weren’t looking he’s back up over a point-per-game, which is mightily impressive considering some of the linemates he’s been dragging around at times. Some think this could be the end of his time here. or we’re starting that path. I’m not so sure. And there will be a lot of writing to be done if it is.