Everything Else

About the only thing wrong that Kahun did this year was nothing to do with him, as Eddie Olczyk insisted on calling him “The Big Kahun-a,” which drove us all to the point of swallowing knives. Maybe Eddie was afraid no one would get the joke, or he thought this was the funnier version, but it would be like Sharks fans calling Joe Pavelski, “The Big Lebowsky But With A Pavel- At The Front Instead Of A Lebow-.” Eddie, everyone gets it. “The Big Kahun” is fine. Good even. Just leave it alone. Anyway, let’s run through it.

Stats

82 games – 13 G – 24 A – 37 P

50.1 CF% (+1.17 Rel)  47.7 xGF% (+3.7 Rel)

It Comes With A Free Frogurt!

Once again, the Hawks’ European scouting turns up another useful player, if not an outright star. Kahun started the year on a line with Jonathan Toews and Alex DeBrincat, and for a minute there they were lighting things up. Kahun has a couple of beauty assists and certainly helped Toews with the dirty work to keep possession for DeBrincat to do his thing. As the year went on and his lack of finish moved him down the lineup, Kahun continued to be an intelligent, diligent player who was rarely caught out of position. Kahun got hot at the turn of the year, putting up seven goals in January and February over 23 games, which would be a 25-goal pace over a full year. And hey, the Hawks had a dearth of players who actually drove possession, and Kahun was one of them.

The Frogurt Is Also Cursed

Again, some complaints about Kahun really have to do with his usage than the player himself. He was on the top six for most of the year, and he looks just short of being that. He flattened out in the season’s last five weeks, probably due to playing more games and heavier travel than he’s used to. For as smart as Kahun appeared to be, he got very little penalty kill time, though the unit could have used all the help it could get. Kahun did get his fair share of power play time, because there wasn’t really anyone else on the second unit, and that went about as well as you’d expect. For the chances he got, you’d like to see Kahun bury a few more than 13 of them. Maybe that will come. Whereas Kahun does a fair number of things well, you wouldn’t suggest he excels at any portion of the game. He’s got decent skill, but nowhere near game-breaking stuff. Decent vision, but not great. More finish. Pretty quick, not lightning. Still, the Hawks could do with a fair more of him on their bottom-six.

Can I Go Now?

No question Kahun has earned a role on this team, and you know this team will be good again–at least at forward–when he’s restricted to only bottom-six assignments. A checking line of Caggiula-Kampf-Kahun already appeals, especially if the Hawks could rig it to be the fourth line (though they’re someway short of that right now). Kahun is only 23, so his best days should be ahead of him, and after acclimating to the North American game and schedule he should be able to finish out a little better than he did this year. Kahun will also be on the last year of an entry-level deal, so he will have the added mojo of trying to play himself into a good contract the following year. In a world where you have to have top-market players and then value with your bottom-level payouts, Kahun definitely fits in the former. He’s not going to make or break your team but can be a hell of a support-beam if not asked to do too much.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Dylan Strome

Jonathan Toews

Brandon Saad

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: Blue Jays 17-25, White Sox 19-22

GAMETIMES: Thursday and Friday 7:10, Saturday and Sunday 1:10

TV: NBCSN+ Thursday, NBCSN Friday and Saturday, WGN Sunday

THE TORANNA BOYS: Still just follow Zubes on Twitter

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Marcus Stroman vs. Dylan Covey

Aaron Sanchez vs. Ivan Nova

TBD vs. Lucas Giolito

Trent Thornton vs. Reynaldo Lopez

PROBABLE BLUE JAYS LINEUP

Freddy Galvis – SS

Vladimir Guererro Jr. – 3B

Justin Smoak – 1B

Rowdy Tellez – DH

Fun Police Randall Grichuk – RF

Brandon Drury – 2B

Teoscar Hernandez – LF

Danny Jansen – C

Jonathan Davis – CF

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonso – DH

James McCann – C

Charlie Tilson – LF

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Ryan Cordell – RF

 

MLB scheduling has done me no real favors by having these two teams go at it on back-to-back weekends, because Sam appropriately said all the necessary things in last week’s preview, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk rehash some stuff or get a find a few new things to touch on. Since we last left the Jays on Sunday, they had Monday off and then split a two-game interleague set with the Giants out in the Bay. The most important development in that series was pretty obviously Vlad Jr. hitting the first home runs of his career, and doing so in exciting fashion with two in one game. They were both monster bombs, as well.

Vlad uncorking dingers now and potentially getting off the early career shnide is the kind of development that would make this season much more tolerable for Jays fans, in no dissimilar way to the explosions of Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, etc. has been able to make this a much more tolerable, fun, and interesting start for Sox fans. There was never really a doubt that Vlad would hit, hit, and hit, in the bigs, and even the most hyped prospects tend to get off to slow starts. Still, I have to imagine Jays fans were hoping for a bit more from him, just like Sox fans were hoping for a bit more from Eloy, who was in a similar boat in terms of his hit and power tools projecting to MLB. Still, both Jays and Sox fans are gonna have to be patient, and I am sure that most of them have no problems with that either.

Speaking of Eloy, his return to the roster and lineup has a potential to be a positive development for the Sox in this series, as well. He went down to Charlotte for a rehab stint the past two nights, and was pulled in the 6th inning of Wednesday’s game. If he’s healthy and ready to return, there is certainly no sense in leaving him AAA just to rehab – he needs MLB at bats more than anything. So I wouldn’t exactly be surprised if he ended up in the lineup on Thursday, though I am not confident enough in that to list him the probable lineup above.

Giolito getting the Saturday home start after dominating the Jays last Sunday is certainly promising, and having seen him pitch so well in his last few times out, him having one more go at a pretty anemic lineup is more than fine by me. I can understand people having reservations about buying into Gio considering he’s turned in his recent dominance against bad lineups, but don’t forget that last year he was getting hit hard by everyone. And also, good pitchers should dominate bad lineups. I don’t necessarily think Gio is the ace of the future, but he’s the ace right now, and MLB scouts with a lot more baseball knowledge than me used to think he was a future ace, so that talent and potential might still be in him somewhere. I am not gonna complain about him pitching well at all.

If the Sox can take 3-of-4 from this weekend, they’ll be one game shy of .500, and if they can take a sweep somehow, they’ll be one game above .500 on May 19. Just like we all predicted.

Baseball

If you follow me, you know I had a good chuckle at the mass self-defenestrations going on around town when the Cubs started out 2-7. It amounted to not much more than a bad week, and every team has a bad week in baseball. In fact, they have more than a bad week. You’ll recall the 2016 Cubs went and had a bad month before the All-Star break. The 104-win Dodgers of ’17 couldn’t tie their shoes, breathe right, or manage to not fall down for four minutes for basically all of September. Last year’s Red Sox…lost like, four of five once. Anyway, teams do this.

Since then, there has been no team better than the Cubs, and they currently they have the best winning-percentage in the National League and are only behind the Astros overall. Now, the Cubs aren’t 23-7 good. No one is, as that would be a 124-win pace. Currently, they’re on a 104-win pace. They have a +56 run-differential, however you value that, which is tied with the Dodgers for best in the NL and behind the Rays and Astros overall (WAY behind the Astros at +83). By that measure, the Cubs should be exactly what they are, at 25-14. They’re right along their expected axis.

So with a bad week-plus and now essentially a dominant five-six weeks in the book, are they this? I was curious.

The way we can find out, at least partially, is to see if there are irrationally spiking stats to this season. Maybe an abnormal BABIP or average with runners in scoring position or the like. Shall we?

Offensively, the Cubs don’t really lead in any category, they’re just among the best in pretty much every one. They’re 11th in runs overall. They have the second-best wOBA in the NL, one point behind the Dodgers and behind the Astros and Twins overall (again, miles behind the Astros. Seriously, do the Astros ever lose? Should they?) If you go by wRC+, they’re still second but there’s a slightly bigger gap to the Dodgers in the NL. Again, no one’s with in 19 points of the Astros in this category, and you should just start preparing yourself for this season maxing out at losing to Houston in five games in October. That’s like the best scenario right now.

wOBA and wRC+ kind of filter out the noise, but in case you need to know the Cubs are 10th when it comes to BABIP at .301. That mark has always put a team between 10th-15th the past five years, so it’s hardly remarkable. I go to average with runners in scoring position just because that’s kind of a thing that can spike, and also something I laugh at the Cardinals for for years now as in ’15 they hit .308 in that spot as a team, claimed it was just the Cardinal Way instead of just luck, and then haven’t been heard from since. Anyway, the Cubs are hitting .260 right now in that spot, which is right in the middle of the pack. So there’s no spiking there. There’s really no spiking offensively at all.

If you look individually, it’s entirely possible that Bryant and Baez will flatten out at some point, though the latter more than the former because there’s little luck about what Bryant is doing. Contreras too. But Rizzo is due a correction, and Jason Heyward might as well (though don’t count on it). I think the offense is just this good, even if that’s still based on a Schwarber-binge I’ve been waiting for since like 2017 now.

To the pitching side. The Cubs have the second-best ERA in the NL, third-best in baseball, and by the time this series with the Reds is over might take over the NL-lead. If you go by FIP, which takes the defense out of the equation, the Cubs rank 9th overall and 6th in the NL. It seems unfair to eliminate the defense when talking about this, because the Cubs have constructed this really good defensive team and their pitchers won’t stop benefitting from it this season. But we’ll come back to this. If you go by xFIP, which seeks to filter out odd home run spikes, the Cubs are fourth in baseball.

When it comes to luck categories while pitching, the Cubs rank 6th in BABIP against at .275. Now here’s where you might see something of a market correction, but it probably won’t be a large one. The past five years, a team BABIP-against mark of .275 would have been first or second-lowest every year. But, the Cubs the past five years have never had one higher than .287, because of that defense, and that includes an utterly insane .255 against in 2016 (seriously, that team was like seven 1986 Patrick Roys). Because of what the Cubs sport defensively, it’s very hard to imagine that they’re going to stop being close to this efficient in getting outs unless all their starters begin giving up ICBMS all the time.

The Cubs are also benefitting a touch from their left-on-base percentage at 76.6%. But that’s not obscenely high, and basically in line with what they’ve done for the past five years.

So based on league-wide stats, the Cubs basically are this good. There’s nothing weird about them being here right now. Obviously, multiple players could hit slumps, or get hurt, or something that will flatten these out come June or July or August.

As far as comparing them to the 103-win 2016 team, they’re a touch behind but most of that could be explained by variance. They strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more. They have a slightly worse ERA and FIP. Offensively, they’re actually a touch better than 2016 so far. They walk a little more, though strike out a little more. They slug more, get on base a touch better. So by what we know here in town as well, the Cubs are where they should be as well.

So basically, everybody shut up unless you’re going to be happy.

Everything Else

We turn now to the most confounding Blackhawk, Brandon Saad. Since coming back to Chicago in the Panarin trade, no Blackhawk has managed to do so much and not do enough. Of all the “get the band back together” trades/signings StanBo has done in his tenure, this one stands out as one that worked. And yet, there’s a feeling that he’s never quite lived up to his potential and never will. Let’s try this.

Stats

80 GP, 23 G, 24 A, 47 P

52.69 CF%, 47.27 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt!

Per usual, Saad logged an excellent year in terms of possession. He led all Hawks regulars with a 52+ CF% and a 5.1 CF% Rel. On the year, the only two Hawks who eclipsed him in both categories were Dylan Sikura (33 GP) and Henri Jokiharju (38 GP). Even better is that this was the first year that Saad played a higher percentage of his time in the defensive zone (50.1%). I’ll go to my grave babbling about how much more weight strong possession numbers have when you’re (a) spending more time in the defensive zone and (b) on a team whose defense is the personification of putting your dog down, mostly because this Hawks campaign made me want to fucking die. I digress.

Compared to last year, Saad had an offensive Renaissance. His 23 goals were his third-best yearly mark in his career. His 24 assists were his fourth-best mark. His shooting percentage bumped up to 11.8%, just above his career average of 11.1%. (This was the first year since 13–14 in which he took fewer than 200 shots, though.) His 0.59 points-per-game ratio matched his career average precisely. Everything about his offensive output was exactly where a normal, not insane person would expect them to be.

Saad also moonlighted (moonlit? This fucking language . . .) on both sides of special teams play. On the power play, his five goals were fourth behind the unholy chimera of Kane, Toews, and DeBrincat. On the penalty kill, Saad was by far the best among a bunch of bad in isolation. Of the Hawks who played at least 100 minutes on the PK, only David Kampf was on the ice for fewer goals against (17 vs. 16). Saad was also the best regular penalty killer in terms of suppressing high-danger shots (21.33 HDCF%) and goals (13.33 HDGF%) on the PK.

All in all, Saad was dinner at a sensibly priced restaurant followed by a night of efficient German sex.

The Frogurt Is Also Cursed

The problem with Saad is that, if you’ll pardon me going Q on you, you always sort of feel like he could be doing more. Admittedly, some of that might be of our own creation, as few people have carried Saad’s water like I have. You see 47 points over 80 games and think, “Yeah, that’s pretty good.” You can look at his fancier stats and see that Saad is at worst a strong hockey player. He’s the Dean Malenko of the Blackhawks. But when the expectation is Marian Hossa II, which is what he flashed early in his career (or at least what we saw), there’s always a twinge of disappointment with Saad when the dust settles.

You’ll occasionally see him simply overpower everyone on the goal line, putting his shoulder down and stuffing the puck toward the net. You’ll see him turn on the afterburners through the neutral zone and make defenders look like drunks who didn’t wipe well enough looking for a car they never owned. You’ll see this and wonder, “Why can’t he do this all the time?”

My soft belligerence toward Saad is that you sometimes have to listen to the notes he ISN’T playing to justify the point totals. You have to dig into the analytics to get a full picture of what he brings. His contributions aren’t intuitive, and so explaining why he’s good and why he’s important can easily sound like bullshit, even if we really believe it isn’t.

You sort of expect a guy with Saad’s speed, power, and awareness to crack 60 points at least once, especially when given the chance to play with guys like Toews, Kane, and DeBrincat. And though he probably should be playing with those guys regularly, he spent a lot of time on the third line with guys like Kampf, Sikura, and Kruger. He looked good doing it, but it falls short of the expectation we had for him.

Can I Go Now?

Saad will turn 27 before the first month of hockey ends next year. He’s still a possession dynamo who can contribute 20+ goals a year. He’s a stalwart on a bad PK and can chip in on the power play. The Hawks have him for another two years at a $6 million per cap hit. Though it’d be surprising to see him traded, of all the Hawks forwards, Saad likely has the most value in terms of movability (before you can say DeBrincat, just don’t). He’s a rhythm guitarist in a band full of shredders, and we’ll always wonder if he’ll ever be anything more.

And if he isn’t, that’s probably OK, too.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Dylan Strome

Jonathan Toews

Everything Else

Game 1 Box Score: White Sox 5, Cleveland 2

Game 2 Box Score: Cleveland 9, White Sox 0

The Mighty Braves Of The Cuyahoga came into this short set unable to create a fizzle offensively. That trend continued Monday, but Manny Banuelos was in a mood to help out his fellow man, especially Jordan Luplow, and the Sox got what they gave for the two games. Let’s clean it all up.

The Two Obs

-The stars of the show clearly are Yoan Moncada and Reynaldo Lopez. Moncada came up with two homers on Monday, one down each line essentially, showing off his willingness to go anywhere. Lopez was dominant and he didn’t have to strike out the world to do it, with six of the 23 outs he got coming that way. The two walks are even more tantalizing. He shifted from his previous start by switching from his change to his slider. He only threw 14 of them in Ohio, but 29 of them on Monday. He got seven whiffs on those sliders.

-On the opposite side of the spectrum, any Sox fans hope of the team flirting with .500 generally end when Giolito or Lopez aren’t on the mound. Banuelos’s turn in the rotation has been nothing short of a bonfire, and now he exits stage left with an injury. Pitchers suffering injuries have not exactly gone the Sox way of late, either. It leaves them awfully thin, with Rodon now done for the year. One wonders if Dylan Cease is too far away, or if the Sox might have to go to an “opener” on some days. Any hope that the Sox could get Banuelos back to his Yankee prospect days have probably ended up in cinders at the bottom of a trash can.

-I know the Sox hopes lies in the future and their prospects, but I don’t know where I am with Benetti and Stone interviewing one in the middle of a game. It was a getaway day matinee, so I was probably the only one watching, so there’s that. And there is something to be said for introducing Sox fans to names beyond Robert and Cease and Kopech. Still, there is a ballgame going on and all.

-Cleveland’s hopes pretty much ride on Jordan Luplow right now, but he won’t get to face Banuelos every game. He’s just about the only hitter they can count on right now, as Ramirez and Lindor continued to do a whole lot of not much outside of Franky’s leadoff homer last night.

Day off and then Vlad Jr. shows up, when the weather finally turns. On we go…

Baseball

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 24-14   Reds 18-23

GAMETIMES: Tuesday-Thursday 5:40pm

TV: NBCSN Tuesday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

THEY ACTUALLY EAT THAT CHILI: Blog Red Machine

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Tanner Roark

Yu Darvish vs. Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana vs. Luis Castillo

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Jason Heyward – CF

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Willson Contreras – C

Daniel Descalso – 2B

David Bote – 3B

PROBABLE REDS LINEUP

Nick Senzel – CF

Joey Votto – 1B

Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Jesse Winker – LF

Yasiel Puig – RF

Derek Dietrich – 2B

Jose Iglesias – SS

Pitcher

Tucker Barnhardt – C

 

After swatting away their closest competitor over the weekend, the Cubs head to the bouncy castle that The Great American Ballpark is to face the NL Central’s wooden-spooners. But this isn’t the normal Reds team you might be accustomed to, and you might not need to prep for the normal diet of 12-10 games that we got on the reg on the river in the past.

For one, the Reds can’t hit for shit, and the main story is that Joey Votto has been a baseball succubus. It’s almost inexplicable. Votto is hitting .206 with a .293 wOBA and a 79 wRC+. He’s walking less than he ever has and striking out more. More worryingly is his line-drive rates and hard-contact are down as well. He’s actually hitting infield pop-ups, which he literally never did before. Judging by his anemic numbers against change-ups and curves, one might get the impression he’s cheating more and more on fastballs at 35. But he’s not even doing that much with those. He could be carrying an injury, and Reds fans are going to have to hope so because he only has 74 more years left on his contract. Still, this is Joey Votto. He’s only a season removed from a 131 wRC+ and two from a 164. You’re going to have to show us more than just six weeks of bad Votto before we believe Votto is bad now.

It wouldn’t be so glaring if the Reds were getting any help from anywhere else, but only Derek Dietrich and Cubs-murderer Eugenio Suarez have bothered to remember to take a bat with them to the plate. Yasiel Puig, who we were all convinced would show up in the NL Central and torture us for a good few years because of course, has been eaten by the BABIP Dragon and is hitting .226. Jesse Winker has been ok, but only that. They were never getting much offense out of short or catcher, and it’s caught up to them. They’ve gotten prime prospect Nick Senzel into center for now, but he’s still got a huge learning curve to manage. They are decidedly pop-gun.

The Reds would be total shit (and then spread on spaghetti as is their way there) if they’re rotation hadn’t been glittering so far, but lucky for them that part of the machine has kept them within touching distance of .500. Luis Castillo, whom the Cubs get on Thursday, has been everything they could have hoped. When you’re striking out 31% of the hitters you see and getting nearly 60% grounders on the contact you do give up, you’re going to slap some motherfuckers upside the head. So has been the tale. Sonny Gray was perhaps just happy to get out of New York, as in terms of FIP he’s been just as good as Castillo. He’s getting far more grounders than he did in pinstripes, and hasn’t seen every fly ball he gives up land in Vinny from Queens’s beer hey yo. Gray has also gone to a cutter far more often this season with his top class curve. Tyler Mahle doesn’t walk anyone, Tanner Roark does but somehow dances around it, and Anthon DeSclafani is striking everyone out. This is not an easy negotiation.

In the pen, Raisel Iglesias hasn’t been terribly happy with his usage, but is still striking out a ton of hitters though been a bit homer-happy. You’re probably not maximizing Iglesias by not using him in something of a Hader-method as they have before, as he’s been a straight closer so far. Amir Garrett and David Hernandez have been heavy K/heavy walk style as well, but have barely given up anything. The uber-jacked Michael Lorenzen and his tight pants are still here as well. The pitching has saved the Reds and if they ever discover someone else who can actually not pass out at bat they could make a serious move in the division. They’re not ready to contend yet, but you can see where they will be one day soon.

For the Cubs, they’ll hope Anthony Rizzo‘s one-day backiotomy is just that. They’ll try and get Darvish to throw strikes against a team that can’t hit, but that didn’t work last time. Getting though on Gray and Castillo the last two games here is going to be a real trick, but that’s what’s ordered.

Everything Else

Last night during the Sharks game, I had a Twitter debate with old friend of the program Al Cimiglia (he’s been our friend awhile, he’s not old, let’s clear that up before he makes a face at me again) about Erik Karlsson. As you all know, our main priority this summer is for the Hawks to sign Karlsson, even though the chances of that happening are infinitesimal. Al’s not a fan, and a big part of that is durability, which is a serious issue when it comes to Thunderkiss EK65. Groin and ankle injuries in the recent past might give a lot of teams pause about handing him seven years and the total boat of cash, and I wouldn’t really argue with that.

This started a much larger debate among more parties about what type of d-man the Hawks need to bring in this summer and over the course of the next few years. You’ll find a large faction that want steady, stay-at-home types that don’t fill their pants every time the puck is in their zone. And I can understand that feeling, even if I don’t necessarily agree with it.

Then there’s people like me, who believe that the Hawks simply spend far too much time in their zone, and need more players who can get them out of it quickly either by skating it out or passing it out and go the other way. Because they currently have…none. Gustafsson’s too slow (and dumb), Keith doesn’t know his limitations and isn’t good enough with the puck, and it’s not Murphy’s game. Seabrook used to be able to make that first pass, but he’s become so immobile that he can never open a lane for himself. The Hawks have basically the biggest mobility gap to make up on their defense in the entire league.

For me, Murphy and what Henri Jokiharju projects to be are your steady, defense-first players, and both are mobile (I’ll still take some convincing on the Jokiharju). They should be paired with get-up-and-go types to balance. No, that’s not Keith anymore, but that’s a different, numbers problem.

This is the debate about Karlsson and has been for years, and it will be about Adam Boqvist whenever he arrives (if he’s not traded). Neither will be considered stalwarts in their own end, and both will make decisions that make your eyes twitch and an odd pressure/shooting pain in your forehead occur for a few seconds. That’s just the nature of the thing.

But when all is said and done, Karlsson and hopefully Boqvist get the puck to the other end. Their teams score more goals when they’re on the ice, they get more chances, they have it more. So really, should you give a fuck how they go about it? Fuck and no you shouldn’t.

For me, this sounds a lot like the strikeout debate in baseball from a few years ago. Yes, strikeouts are boring. Yes, they can be infuriating, and yes, there are times when you can’t have a strikeout. But if someone strikes out 25% of the the time and yet is getting on base over 35% of the time and hitting for power, do we really care how their outs come about? No, we do not. It’s an out.

No, Karlsson hasn’t been great this postseason, and it will be up to any possible suitor to figure out how much that has to do with his health, and whether that health is a long-term concern. The fact that he carried one of the best relative-possession numbers in the league despite being on one of the best possession teams around during the season when he was healthy is a big clue.

But if it isn’t, the results are the results. He gets the puck up the ice, pretty much better than everyone. A large part of the Hawks’ defensive problems could be solved simply by not being there as much. This is my argument with Boqvist, who NHL scouts are saying already has an NHL offensive game. If Boqvist can right now carry possession above water and get the Hawks more chances and goals while he’s out there than they give up, do I care if he’s occasionally going to get buried behind his net or sometimes look like he should have a glove on his head and picking flowers in his own zone? I do not.

The name of the game is still getting goals, and if you’re up the ice trying to get goals more often it means you give up less unless your goalie dies. And the Sharks goalie pretty much did die this year, and they still finished among the best. The days of the construction horse/atom-smasher are over. There aren’t that many Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s around, and none are available this summer (and really, Murphy is supposed to be a poor man’s Vlasic). You could fill the roster with guys who are all puck-movers for all I care. Yes, a balance would be nice, but the game is skewing to mobility. And the Hawks actually have the safer, base players here more than you thought.

If you’re getting more goals than the opposition, do I care how they go about it? I do not.

Everything Else

In case you missed the news yesterday under the far brighter lights of the playoffs or it actually being warm for a change, Ryan Kesler is likely to miss all of next season after hip resurfacing surgery. This will be Kesler’s third major surgery, his second on his hip, and not only will he miss out next year, you get the feeling this is likely it for him. While one of the Bryan brothers in tennis (it doesn’t matter which one, does it?) have returned after this procedure, and Andy Murray is going to try to, Kesler at 36 and to hockey seems a stretch. Maybe he can, I just wouldn’t bet on it.

If it is the end, it will be the end of pretty much our favorite non-Hawk player to write about. Kesler was strange in that way. There probably wasn’t anyone who pissed us off more, his constant jabbering and cheap shots along with some big goals. His “feud” with Andrew Ladd, which basically involved him getting the shit kicked out of him, calling Ladd a coward for that, and then refusing to fight Ladd after doing so was kind of the height of heel-dom. You were waiting for Bobby “The Brain” Heenan to escort him off the ice. You get the feeling Jonathan Toews would still knife him if given the chance. You knew exactly what Toews and the Hawks were in for in 2015, and you got every bit of it. Kesler’s bravado in what he thought was right, and how it came up empty once again. He was the biggest and probably as close to perfect hockey villain you’ll find in the modern game. He could make your blood boil.

And yet other than Jarome Iginla, there probably isn’t a player since we started this blog that we wanted on the Hawks more. When he asked out of Vancouver, we wrote furiously and regularly about all the ways the Hawks could get him and what it would take, perhaps in the vain hope that someone somewhere would see it and bring it to Stan. Or that Patrick Kane would demand he be brought here after their Team USA excursions together. Maybe it was just the relief of not having to deal with him in another jersey we sought. Maybe because the Hawks haven’t had anyone like him since…god who even knows? Kesler’s snarl, brashness, combined with his actual ability probably goes all the way back to Roenick here.

That’s the thing about Kesler. For all the bullshit he put out there, it wasn’t bullshit because he could actually play. Mostly the yapping and pest-ing is reserved for players who can’t do anything else. But Kesler wasn’t that. He’s got a Selke for a reason. Multiple 70+ point seasons on his resume. Nine 20-goal seasons.

And he did it when it mattered most. A rite of springtime in Vancouver was Kesler carrying that team when the Sedins decided it was too hard.. He was everywhere in 2011, the city of Nashville basically declared war on him and he just kept kicking their ass and making them like it, until his body gave out and no one was there to pick up the slack. He was the biggest threat in 2015 when Getzlaf and Perry waved a dismissive hand at proceedings and wouldn’t come inside the circles. He even flashed some of that old self in the Ducks’ last trip to the conference final, though by that point his body was giving up the ghost.

Hockey has so few trash-talkers-but-back-it-up types. Most of the yapping is done from the bench from guys who play less than 10 minutes. It’s why we think David Backes is such a joke. Andrew Shaw when he was here was only a Diet version of Kesler, and now is just Diet Backes. Brad Marchand picked up the torch. But are there too many more? Not really.

Kesler vs. Toews harkened back to an older time of hockey, and maybe we enjoyed it because Toews always came out on top. You probably still can’t leave Joel Otto and Mark Messier in a room together. It was that type of personal duel in a team game. Joe Thornton would probably like a word with Kesler, too. Hell, there’s a whole list that would scroll onto the floor. And they always had to line up right against each other in every faceoff they took in those series. The fatigue of each other was palpable, and that was before the series even started.

I remember all the crap. I remember all the cross-checks and slashes and punches to the back of the head. I also remember Kesler literally diving headfirst into Corey Perry’s asshole to score an empty-netter to seal the US’s win over Canada in 2010. I remember him picking a fight with the entire country. Or guaranteeing he would score on Luongo, which he did. I also remember him ultimately coming up short, which is another main theme of Kesler’s career. It all happened with Kesler.

But it wasn’t ever Kesler’s fault. If the Sedins had shown 75% of his hutzpah in 2011 the Canucks probably get one game in Boston. If Getzlaf hadn’t done his normal quit thing when things are hard, or if Freddie Andersen wasn’t Freddie Andersen, the Ducks probably win that series and go on to win the Cup, too.

But it makes Kesler a more poetic figure that after doing all that he could, and all that he shouldn’t, it was never quite enough. He pretty much did everything he could in every possible way, and it wasn’t enough. For those who never had him on their team, it probably makes you smile. But that part of you that wanted him on your side, you have to feel for him a little. The fact that he never quite got it, that he thought all his and his team’s physical pressure would win the day, that he could enforce his way to victory instead of play his way, gave him a delightful, tragic idiot shine.

Kesler will always have the last laugh on me. I had to buy an ex-girlfriend a Kesler USA jersey before the ’14 Olympics. I sincerely enjoyed doing so. And I nearly got one for myself.

Farewell, Ryan. I doubt a player will ever make me feel murderous rage and insane devotion at the same time as you did. I’ll miss that.

Everything Else

It’s become a standard part of the narrative of the 2018-19 season that Jonathan Toews had a much-needed bounce-back year. I’m not here to poke holes in that story, and when a guy has a career high in points in the year he’s 30-turning-31, you shouldn’t bitch too much, right? Well, I’ll always find a way to bitch about something, so let’s do it:

82 GP – 35 G – 46 A – 81 P

50.5 CF% – 47.05 xGF% [5v5]

It Comes With a Free Frogurt!

I’ll just say it again because it’s fun: Toews scored a career-high 81 points this season! And not only that, his 35 goals were a career high as well. Relatedly, his shooting percentage jumped to 14.9%, putting him right back in his average range between the years 2013-2016, and showing that bad luck was in fact playing a role last season. Potting nine power play goals—his most since the ’10-11 season—doesn’t hurt either.

And about that power play…obviously this is another one of the silver linings from this year and there many factors at work here. But, let’s give some credit, one of those factors was Toews parking himself in the slot more, while the rest of the first power play unit finally started moving around rather than just watching Kane, making Toews a more reliable scoring threat. It’s weird to say less movement was an improvement, but in this case, cutting out some useless wandering was in fact a good thing. It bears repeating (and no it wasn’t all because of Toews), but the Hawks’ power play finished 15th in the league—a downright normal number, particularly after having such a god-awful start and after being in the basement the season prior (28th in the league). The first power play unit was the one that got leaned on too, so Toews rightly deserves some credit along with the others. If nothing else, he adjusted to CCYP’s strategy and actually implemented changes, unlike, say, Duncan Keith.

The Frogurt is Also Cursed

So the eye test isn’t much of a problem—again, career-high goals and points, functional power play, etc. etc. But it’s in some of the underlying metrics that things with Toews get a little dicier. First, his possession declined by a not-insignificant 5-6%. Last season at 5-on-5 he was at a 56.07 CF%; this year, he was down to 50.5. So he was technically above water but his offensive zone starts remained essentially the same year over year (57.3% in 2017-18, 57.1% in 2018-19). That makes the decline a little concerning. His xGF% isn’t great either. At 5-on-5 it was just over 47%, ranking him below both David Kampf and Marcus Kruger. In all situations it got better—50.34%, but that’s not exactly lighting the world on fire. Granted, this doesn’t mean Toews is done and it’s all over, but it suggest that, just as luck plays a role in a resurgence and the career-high in goals was great, it may be an outlier, not a stable trend.

And there there’s just time…it comes for us all and as healthy and well-conditioned as Captain Marvel is, and presumably will remain, he’s going to continue naturally getting slower as the league just gets faster. But let’s be honest with ourselves: the Hawks are too terrified to scratch an obviously crappy Seabrook—do you think for one second that they would demote a mildly slower Jonathan Toews from the top line? I really hope you know better at this point.

Can I Go Now?

Toews did what we wanted him to do. I was a little unsure about him and Patrick Kane being grouped together again but it worked out better than (at least I) expected. Again, it’s hard to bitch about 81 points, and particularly when it was so sorely needed from our 1C. And yet, it still feels like this was a flash, an exception in the a larger trend of decline for reasons that can’t be stopped. Toews will be the top-line center next year—of that, you can be sure. Whether he’ll still be deserving of it, that remains to be seen.

Previous Player Reviews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Collin Delia

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Henri Jokiharju

Gustav Forsling

Erik Gustafsson

Carl Dahlstrom

Brendan Perlini

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Dylan Strome