Baseball

Do I Have To Give Up On The War Bear?

By Sam Fels 1765 0

While I’m not drying to put my head through various spots of drywall after this 6-12 stretch, it has become pretty clear that the Cubs inhabit a second tier of the majors. Which is…fine. It’s certainly good enough to win the division, and even make some noise in October. They’re not 6-12 bad, just as they weren’t 2-7 bad to start the year, and probably not 22-7 good in the middle there. But what’s clear is that the Astros and Dodgers, essentially the two teams the Cubs have been compared to since the whole cycle started, are in a different class than them. It shouldn’t be that way, or doesn’t feel like it should, but let’s be honest about it.

One day in the future, we’ll do a deep dive about how the Cubs lost the high ground to the Dodgers in the NL, because they had it over them in 2016 for sure. But to put it in one line, the Cubs never created a second wave of produced players/stars after Rizzo and Bryant (throw Contreras or Baez in there if you want, though neither were “stars” in ’16). Meanwhile, the Dodgers introduced Cody Bellinger to the world, were able to be patient with Joc Pederson (or have the White Sox fuck up trading for him, your pick), now have Alex Verdugo in tow in the interim, along with reclamation projects/science experiments Max Muncy and Chris Taylor and whoever else.

And the Cubs have made bets on their products, and none have really worked out. And the one they bought biggest into was Kyle Schwarber you could argue, because there was a time and place when he would have had serious value in a trade. And now you worry they’ve held on too long and perhaps ruined that value forever, while having a player that may just never be what he flashed in 2015.

Schwarber has been able to somewhat hide under the glow of the ’16 World Series, and as much as I love the dude and still believe there’s a wildebeest in there somewhere, it’s one that annoys me. Yes, Schwarbs had seven hits after sitting out an entire season, and that is kind of amazing on that level. On another, he had one extra-base hit and strung a few singles together. And it was only 20 PAs, which is nothing. When considering what Schwarber is and what he will be, it’s best to ignore all of it.

On the other side, there’s this idea that in the two intervening seasons since he’s been a total bum. Nope. He’s been above average offensively in both, and was even a 3.0 WAR player last year, which if you can believe it made him one of the more valuable left-fielders around last year (seriously, it did. He was like sixth behind Pham, Benintendi, Rosario, Peralta, and Brantley). Schwarber hasn’t been a drag on anyone before this, he just hasn’t been the star we’d hoped.

So what’s the deal with Schwarber this year? The easy thing to say is he strikes out too much. Except he’s not striking out really any more than he ever has. And he’s walking a ton, top-15 in baseball, and walks are good. We like walks. So then the next thing to say is he’s not hitting the ball with authority. Except he is. Schwarber’s hard-contact rate is the highest of his career. So his line-drive rate. If you go by Statcast, his average exit-velocity is the highest of his career as well. In fact, his 92.6 MPH average is also in the top 20 in baseball.

Could it be that Schwarber is just unlucky? The .257 BABIP would suggest so, but it’s really not that far below his career number. Because Schwarber is one who gets gobbled up by shifting infields a lot.

If you reduce it down to May, that month was even weirder for Schwarber. He walked nearly 20% of the time, had an OBP of .345, hit everything hard… and hit .196. Could it be he’s just doomed?

Schwarber isn’t the ark-of-the-covenant-horrific high-leverage hitter he was last year, but he also still is very bad. Schwarbs has a 77 wRC+ in medium leverage situations (100 is average) and 66 in high. With men in scoring position, he’s -1. -1. Like…through the looking glass awful. And yet, all his walk or strikeout or contact numbers hardly change at all when there are men on base. He’s the same guy.

What’s clear is that Schwarber has some clear holes. Fastballs even just high in the zone and middle of the plate in he can’t get to. He also can’t hit a breaking ball. Like at all. They don’t even have to be out of the zone. Don’t believe me?

Schwarber whiffs on half the swings he takes at curves, and it’s not much better on sliders. As he leads off, he generally only sees men on base later in the game, when relievers are specially trained to throw gas high and breaking stuff after it. He’s easily identified, let’s say.

I’m just not sure what the answer is. I know it’s not Carlos Gonzalez, who has been three aliens dressed as Carlos Gonzalez for like four seasons now. I have to believe that if Schwarber continues to walk nearly 20% of the time, keeps hitting the ball as hard as he is, good things will happen.

Because a dangerous, even dominant Schwarber extends this lineup to at least a point where it can see the Dodgers. There would still be holes at second, center, and right (don’t look now but Russell is kind of hitting, as gross as it is). And the bullpen needs too much work to go chasing a bat. There aren’t enough assets for everything. Unless Schwarber becomes one of those flogged assets. Is it even possible now?

Everything Else

Let’s Trade For Taylor Hall Before Everyone Realizes This Is Bulls**t

By Sam Fels 2795 0

First thing to wake up to today:

Now, as most know, Taylor Hall has been a fascination of mine for a while, though that hardly makes me unique. And it would make sense that Hall might not want to sign an extension in New Jersey. If for no other reason, some players are just very curious to do the free agent tour, to see what all their options are, or hell, just to be courted by at least 2/3rds of the league and feel like the big dick. Fuck, why wouldn’t you? Oh right, injury or down performance or something. Still, if Hall were to go on the open market next summer, you could make the argument it would be an even bigger deal than when John Tavares did, because JT didn’t have a Hart on his resume.

Second, even with Jack Hughes coming to town, the Devils are at least two years from serious contention and possibly longer, and might not even be a playoff team next season. They were 26 points off the pace last season, have no defense to speak of really, and MacKenzie Blackwood may or may not be a goalie. You can see where Hall might not want to bet whatever’s left of his prime on that hunch.

Further ratcheting up the frenzy is that Hall’s cap number is just $6M this year, which is pretty manageable for anyone remotely desperate. Off the top of my head, teams around contention that would want and need Hall are the Penguins, Bruins, Panthers, Jackets, Canes, Flyers, Islanders, Stars, Blues, Predators, Flames, and I’m probably missing a few. Look, everyone needs Taylor Hall. Everyone could find a spot for him.

Oh, and New Jersey is just a shitty place to play. Let’s end the case there. It’s fucking New Jersey. I just want to pretend that Hall hates Springsteen as much as I do and has had enough. Let me have it.

Which brings us to the Hawks. There’s no question that they have a hole in the top six. Hall would actually be something of an odd fit in some ways. He’s not the prototypical left winger to maximize playing with Kane, because he also likes to have the puck and create his own space and shot. Not that the two of them couldn’t make it work, but he’s not the spot-up shooter than Top Cat is on the power play or Sharp was in his heyday or Panarin could turn into when need be. Which means you’d probably be better off playing Hall with Toews, except there’s no one really on the right side of that. Again, you could put Kane there and have an absolute doomsday of a top line with Toews doing more of the finding space thing, leaving Hall to create it, and then hammock Strome and Top Cat on the second line.

Both of these scenarios mean either flipping Saad to the right side, which he’s never really taken to, or moving him permanently to the third line, or involving him in this trade or another. Funny how Saad and Hall make the same amount of money, no?

You may think it doesn’t behoove the Hawks to go after what is essentially a rental, but I think it’s perfect. One, it keeps his trade value down. And this is the kind of player that you start the process of drafting Bowen Byram, and then packaging some combination of Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudein, Jokiharju (maybe with Saad or Anisimov) to improve your team now. Second, it gives you flexibility next year and evaluation time this year. Perhaps Kubalik, Kahun, or Kurashev really pop this season, along with another 40 goals from Top Cat, and you thank Hall for his services while you commit his money to other players you think you can step up. Maybe the cap takes a bigger leap up. I don’t know, who cares, fuck you.

Yes, I realize that Hall isn’t a defenseman. But his cap hit isn’t so destructive for one season that you can’t find an additional upgrade there as well, whether or not the Hawks draft Byram and whether or not he then skips right to the NHL. Remember, Crawford’s number comes off the books next year too, and you might jettison Saad’s and/or Anisimov’s in the next year as well. There is flexibility for Hall and oh I don’t know…a certain #65 together for a season.

You can actually do this without forfeiting your future. The #3 pick allows you that. Your director of amateur scouting just came out and said that they’ll never get all these defensive prospects on the roster, so you know you have to make a move or two anyway. Play your cards right, and you should still have at least two of your four kids already in the system on the blue line, Byram/Turcotte and whatever else you pick up this draft.

You want to get back in the headlines? You want to vault yourself back into contention in a division that appears like it’s only going to get worse? Then grow a pair and make this move before everyone realizes Pagnotta is actually just a glorified bullhorn.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Sox Take 3 of 4 From Tribe: Feelin It

By Andy Jonathan 1226 0

White Sox 10, Indians 4

White Sox 6, Indians 1

White Sox 2, Indians 5

Lucas Giolito and Tim Anderson 2 – Indians 0

 

Is…is this what pride in your team feels like?  It’s been so long, I suppose I’d forgotten how nice it was.  While the Sox still have quite a ways to go hauling themselves up the side of the Sisyphean-esque mountain that Sox management has created for itself, this is a nice marker for a team that may just have deigns on competing this year.  Even if (when) the bottom drops out and the boulder rolls back over them, it’s cool for a weekend to own a team that has knocked their collective junk in the dirt the last 5 years.   Make no mistake, while the Sox are climbing up one side of the mountain it seems the Indians are picking up speed on the other side, hurtling down towards the burning shores of the Cuyahoga.

Let’s talk about some stuff, shall we?

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

– If you would’ve told me two weeks ago that Manny Banuelos and Dylan Covey would outduel Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer I would’ve laughed and pushed you into the street (I’m a terrible person).  Night one saw Carrasco unable to keep his breaking pitches out of the zone, resulting in quite a few of them going back the opposite direction at speeds normally associated with satellites falling out of orbit.  Banuelos did just enough to keep the noodle-armed tribe off the basepaths and in the field, then let his offense do the rest.  Abreu, Alonso and Eloy had 7 RBIs between the 3 of them, with Jiminez breaking the ice with a 2 run double.  It’s nice to see Alonso contribute something to the equation, but he still shouldn’t be hitting fucking 4th.

 

-Night 2 saw the Covey give up a lead off bomb to Francisco Lindor (God it’s gonna suck when the Cubs sign him) that killed a Super Ropes vendor in the right-center seats.  This had me primed for another Covey Special, where I can turn the game off in the 2nd inning (the outcome predetermined) and fire up Mortal Kombat on my PS4.  I decided to keep it on a little longer, and was rewarded by the other side of the lineup jumping Bauer for 6 runs (2 earned) and making the Indians pay for some seriously shoddy D.  Covey ended up getting a quality start on the evening, plus his first win since August of 2018(!).  I’m happy for him, but if this team has any interest in making this season more than just a stop on the Eternal Rebuild Train, then he can’t be the 5th starter much longer.  Time for me to start beating the Marcus Stroman drum, eh?

 

– Game 3 was the lone blight of the weekend, with the Sox repaying the Cleveland error-fest of the previous night with the type of base running normally seen when I’m playing MLB The Show shitfaced in my basement.  The Sox ran into a double play with the Indians not even having to throw a pitch.  If you really wanna see it, you can watch the video here, but I’m not going to waste any more time on it other than to say that Yolmer and Tilson know what they did, and they better not fucking do it again.  The Sox stranded a shitload of players, Renteria left Nova in too long and pitched Herrera too much.  Fart.

 

– Game 4 was another masterful performance by Lucas Giolito, and another blast by Tim Anderson.  Seriously, I’m running out of superlatives as to just how good Gio has looked these last few outings, so instead just watch this curveball over and over again.  It’s hypnotic.  Gio ended up going 7.1 innings, with Bummer and Colome finishing off the Tribe for the series win.  The only downer on the day was Eloy striking out in each plate appearance today, still seeing a steady diet of breaking pitches.  I’m not ready to call him Pedro Cerrano yet, but the similarities are getting somewhat striking.  I still have faith he’s gonna get his timing down and send Alonso to the bottom 3rd of the order where he belongs.  Timmy continues to be the most entertaining thing since Ozzie Guillen, and his pose after he murdered the cutter from Plesac (who actually pitched pretty well) made me cackle like a mental patient.  More please.

 

Next up is a quick 2 game series against the Nats.   Thankfully the Sox manage to dodge Stephen Strasburg, who is back to his old dominating self.  The Sox currently sit 1 game out of .500 and 2 games out of the 2nd wild card spot.  The Nats are a beatable shitshow right now, then it’s another helping of the Kansas City Trash Goblins.  There’s no reason for the Sox to be anything but at least 2 games above .500 by the end of the week.  In the past, this is where the trap door would open and the Sox would plummet to the depths of the AL.  I have a feeling this time might be different.  ONWARD!

 

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Swept By Cardinals: And Here Come The Pretzels

By Sam Fels 1446 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cardinals 2, Cubs 1

Game 2 Box Score: Cardinals 7, Cubs 4

Game 3 Box Score: Cardinals 2, Cubs 1

It’s always important to breathe at a moment like this. Sweeps at the hand of those from Mos Eisley tend to accentuate the emotions and anger and whatever your particular grievance is with the team at that time. So it is tempting to say that the offense completely sucks, even though it doesn’t. Or that the rotation isn’t good enough, even though they didn’t do anything wrong this weekend. Or that the pen is an absolute abomination…and that would be correct.

The Cubs lost three coin-flips essentially, one caused by a three-hour rain delay which I’m more and more convinced shouldn’t be a thing that exist unless they have to. Both teams looked pretty damn flat this afternoon after a very late night last night, and the Cubs just made one ore two more mistakes and lost the last one.

It’s still important to note that this team is fourth in runs in the NL, second in wOBA. It might not feel like it right now, especially when they just got bladdered by a corpse, but they were also unlucky. Three of those line drives find holes on another day, and then what are we talking about?

It’s definitely a rough patch, 2-8 in their last 10, but that happens. The encouraging thing, if you need, is that the rotation bounced back which is probably the most important thing going forward. Let’s run it through:

The Two Obs

-It seems a bit silly to complain about the bullpen and its handling on a night when the Cubs scored one run, but that’s Friday for you. Miles Mikolas still has that in the bag on occasion, even if this year has been a struggle for him. But I don’t know why anyone would be in a hurry to get to Dillon Maples when there’s already a guy on base, and I’m a Maples guy and want him to be given every chance and more to finally nail down a spot (he probably won’t ever but I’m a hopeful sort). Mike Montgomery isn’t a situational lefty, and yet because he’s the only one out there besides Ryan (who blows but more on that in a sec) he keeps being used as one. I would trust Monty to get through Wong and Bader, though to be fair to Maples he did strike out Bader and didn’t get a call. But now the bases are loaded and you have to do something dumb and Cishek doesn’t really get strikeouts that much and here we are.

-Going over the woes of the pen is probably useless at this point. Everyone knows and there’s little that can be done via trade for another couple weeks at least. Even a Kimbrel Hail Mary doesn’t do anything until July. But it’s just laughable how the Cubs boasted about the amount of arms they would have between here and Iowa and almost none of them are major league pitchers. Ryan isn’t. Brach probably isn’t anymore. Edwards might not be on his bad days. Maples hasn’t proven it. Neither is Webster, Cedeno, or Collins.

-Saturday’s game goes haywire because of the weather delay. It was about how far Chatwood could go, which wasn’t far, but he’s actually been effective this year and is probably allowed a wonky one. There’s just nothing to be done after him, and Strop’s return isn’t a cure-all.

-Rough weekend for my guy Schwarber. He can’t strike out with the bases loaded on Saturday and it looks like the things are snowballing on him again. He remains simply awful with anyone on base, which actually backs up the logic of leading him off, but you wonder how much longer the Cubs can wait on him. It’s been two and a half seasons for him, and the over-glow of a few singles in the World Series can’t count for anything. I still think he has a big boom within him, but I would also say he’s got a month or six weeks to show it, otherwise the Cubs might want to monitor how the Reds handle their Dietrich-Gennett jam at second (probably by just sitting Winker or Puig and playing both and not sending either here, honestly).

-How does a team in the majors not know how to run a rundown or pickoff? The Cubs always make at least too many throws or outright fuck it up more than any team in the league. Only cost them the game today.

-For all the gifts his arm provide, Contreras has had a bad defensive year. He’s been a subpar framer for a few years now, has been lazy blocking balls far too often, and today’s error was another the Cubs can’t have. That doesn’t mean he should be benched or anything, it’s just something we’re going to live with. Teams are rarely going to run on him or even stray off bases that much, so the arm which made up for his defensive deficiencies elsewhere doesn’t even come out of the holster that often.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Stanley Cup Final Game 3 Recap – A Game I Definitely Watched And Was Not Drunkenly Passed Out For

By Sam Fels 1550 0

That’s absolutely true. I was not snoring and drooling on my couch for the first 30 minutes of this contest in a European Champions stupor only to discover the game was over when I came to. Definitely saw the whole thing. It was that important to me. I thought it mattered that much, and wouldn’t find the missing of any of it actual sweet relief to my psyche. Nope, no siree bob.

When I awo…I mean I watched the Blues take seven penalties, including three in the first, which is very Blues. I definitely saw that Jordan Binnington further proved that he’s pretty much just been “a dude” since like March 1st. He’s at .909 for the playoffs now, which is hardly remarkable. And by the time St. Louis could launch any sort of response they were done and Tuukka Rask could yawn his way through the last 40. Definitely witnessed it all.

-As I guessed, or maybe just hoping, the “rust” issue was a problem for the Bruins in Game 2 and not Game 1. The overwhelming adrenaline of the Final beginning got them through, and they skated away from the Blues forecheck pretty much every time. They looked leggy in Game 2 and couldn’t get away from that Blues pressure, and you got what you got. They only had to do it for the first period last night, but the Bruins had their d-men take a half-step up, force the Blues to dump the puck in a touch quicker, which gives them more space to retrieve the puck and move their feet or move their puck quickly. Even with Grzelcyk they were able to do this. Or at least Krug and Carlo were able to, which was enough.

-Noted New Genius Craig Berube chose not to keep sending his top line of Schenn-Schwartz-Tarasenko as the completely outpaced Chara, and though the O’Reilly line was able to turn Chara’s head into something resembling an anvil most of the night, that caused his top line to do most of the chasing of Krug. And the Blues need that top line to be in the offensive end and score, because they’re not going to get the goals consistently from the likes of TO BLAIS WHICH MEANS TO BLUFF and Perron and Maroon and the other clowns that comprise their bottom six. Considering the way the Blues top line tossed around Chara and McAvoy in Boston you’d think you’d stick with it. But Berube is a genius now, as we’ve stated, so what do I know?

-Speaking of genius, Bergeron’s line had as much time as Coyle’s and Nordstrom’s line, which is definitely a plan for success. Yes, Bergeron is not healthy but come on, man. David Pastrnak had more ice time than only two other forwards on the Bruins. There’s taking your foot off the gas and then there’s whatever this is.

-The Blues led in hits so that means they really won, right?

-This is Binnington’s biggest reverse since taking over the starter’s job, and should be interesting to see how he responds. He had only given up more than three goals three times all season, but the Blues will need a rebound effort from him. But again, since March 1st his SV% is .910. Which is fine. It’s not great. It’s barely good or average. It’s not going to get it done here.

Everything Else

Friday Foofaraw: The Champions League Final, or Playing Mad Libs with Metaphors

By Rose Rankin 1280 0

I was trying to decide what to compare the Champions League final to, and—spoiler alert—there isn’t really something that’s comparable in a 1-to-1 way. At first I thought Super Bowl, but this isn’t like two teams coming from two conferences, a neat and clean path to the championship, although the hype and significance of the game itself may be reminiscent of the Super Bowl.

This isn’t like the Stanley Cup Finals either, even though they’re a circuitous path to winning. Champions League includes the top teams from leagues across Europe, so the clubs change (to a degree) each year as league play has the knock-on effect of determining a Champions League berth. And alas, as much as we would prefer never to watch the Ottawa Senators play a professional game again, this variability doesn’t happen in the NHL.

It’s not even really analogous to the World Cup. Yes, both tournaments feature pool play and then knockout rounds, but that’s like saying basketball in the Olympics is the same as the NBA Finals.
It’s not—national(ist) sentiment is different than rooting for your club. Suffice it to say, this is a unique event that combines arduous schedules and length of time, intense fan loyalty, and an international flair all into one.

How Did We Get Here?

And what about the teams themselves? It’s Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, whose name will never not be funny to me because it’s so stereotypically British (say “hotspur” in your head with a British accent). On the one hand, these are both Premier League teams so what the fuck? On the other hand, this is part of the charm—there’s no best of the worst coming from one division or one conference; they earned the right to be here, league be damned.

Is it a David and Goliath scenario? Ehh, not exactly. Liverpool is a powerhouse, but they had issues of their own getting here. Up and down their lineup they’re stacked, including having two of the world’s best forwards in Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino, literally the world’s best defender in Virgil van Dijk, and yet another superlative in goalkeeper in Alisson Becker. However, in the semifinal they ran up against Lionel Messi’s Barcelona and promptly got their ass kicked in the first leg 3-0. To make matters worse, in the second leg a bunch of those “world’s best” I just named didn’t even play—notably Salah and Firmino. And yet, they came out and destroyed Barca 4-0, thanks to substitute Georginio Wijnaldum and his two goals coming within minutes of each other early in the second half. This changed the entire nature of the match, since they had to not just win it but win by more than three goals—really fucking hard to do. (Another relative rando, Divock Origi, had the other two so clearly they can do it without the big names.)

In a way it’s almost like two Cinderella stories because as crazy as Liverpool’s comeback was, Tottenham’s berth is even more insane. They were seconds away from losing to Manchester City in the quarterfinals when a goal got called back for being offside, letting the Spurs squeak by what is, on paper at least, a much better team. A hat trick by Lucas Moura in the second half of the second leg of the semis against Ajax got them here—not unlike Liverpool popping off for a bunch of goals in the last possible moment. And all of this happened without their top striker, Harry Kane, who’s been injured for months. Again, like Liverpool, the entire team made the difference as opposed to reliance on one star player (as Barcelona and Juventus with Messi and Ronaldo, respectively, are painfully aware).

So Where Is It Going?

That’s all fine and good—now what the hell is going to happen, right? Well, Liverpool is ostensibly the better team, particularly with Salah and Firmino playing, and is definitely a big favorite to win. But then again, the Spurs should have been out two rounds ago, should have lost to these other, better teams, and sometimes emotion and momentum are enough in a one-match situation, just like a game 7.

Personally, I think Tottenham will do their thing where they dominate possession but make just enough mistakes for Liverpool to capitalize. Van Dijk practically lets no one get by him with the ball, and I expect the Spurs will struggle to get past him and the rest of the backfield, and even if they do they have Alisson to deal with. Meanwhile, Liverpool can take advantage quickly, move the ball through the midfield and have enough scoring threats to catch Spurs goalkeeper Hugo Lloris on the back foot. He’s not terrible, but I’ll take Alisson over Lloris ten out of ten times. And they only need to do it once, maybe twice, and then shut down Son, Moura and Kane, who will likely play but I question if he’ll be much of a factor coming back from a months-long recovery for an ankle injury.

This is what is likely to happen, but this entire run has been full of unlikely turns of events so I reserve the right to hedge on this. To complicate things further, both the coaches are also world-class-superlative guys. Mauricio Pochettino has done incredible things with a veritable MASH unit all year and may be coaching himself to a better gig, and Jurgen Klopp has been here twice and never won the final, so there’s both experience and ridiculous determination for the prize (especially after losing out on the Premier League title by one fucking point).

It will not be dull and it won’t lack for championship drama—that much I’m confident about. Because, oh yeah, on top of everything, one of those finals that Klopp lost was with Liverpool last year, and Salah got injured early in the game and that is some major motivation for everyone involved. It’s more pressure too, but between the down-to-the-wire Premier League race and this drama, they should be getting used to it.

Even if you’re not that into soccer, this one will be worth your time.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Cardinals: They’re Going To Be Upset About A Fake Talk Show

By Sam Fels 1251 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 31-23   Cardinals 27-28

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:15, Saturday 6:15, Sunday 1:15

TV: NBCSN Friday, Fox Saturday, WGN Sunday

DON’T EVEN BOTHER: Viva El Birdos

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Yu Darvish vs. Miles Mikolas

Jose Quintana vs. Jack Flaherty

Cole Hamels vs. Adam Wainwright

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Victor Caratini – C

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

PROBABLE CARDINALS LINEUP

Dexter Fowler – RF

Paul Goldschmidt – 1B

Paul DeJong – SS

Marcell Ozuna – LF

Matt Carpenter – 3B

Yadier Molina – C

Kolten Wong – 2B

Harrison Bader – CF

 

The Auld Rivals move down I-55 tonight and this weekend, where the Cubs and Cards will clash for the for the first time in front of the illiterate and toothless in West East St. Louis. Perhaps for the first time ever, most everyone will be paying attention to the Blues instead, at least tomorrow night. If you’re making the trip…what’s wrong with you?

The Cardinals haven’t burst out of the gates with the Cubs and Brewers, and currently are 4.5 games back and under .500. They can’t seem to get everything firing at the same time. The offense has had its moments, but currently Paul DeJong, Dexter Fowler, and Kolten Wong have been trying to shove the bat up their nose. On the flip side, Matt Carpenter is doing that thing again where he comes close to sucking you into the idea that he’s finished at the beginning of the season, and now is going nuclear (he’s slugging nearly .600 the past two weeks). Paul Goldschmidt has been good, but maybe not quite the MVP-candidate the Cards hoped they were getting this winter. Harrison Bader has also been molten the past couple of weeks, but overall has been defense-first. The offense has potential to really carry this team through the summer, but hasn’t yet.

It may have to, as we went over some of the rotation’s problems in the spotlight. The two kids have hit their speed-bumps, and at some point this goddamn team is going to have to admit the Wainwright is dunzo and it’s never going to happen for Michael Wacha. I mean, it’s fine with me if they keep sending Wacha out there to hang a curve or groove a fastball at the worst possible time, but you’d think that an organization that is still convinced it’s miles ahead of the curve would crack the code on two-fifths of their rotation turning odd colors in the sun.

The pen has gotten yeoman’s work out of John Gant and John Brebbia. You’ll hear all about the 102 MPH that Jordan Hicks throws, which always seems to ignore the fact he’s not that good. He walks too many guys, and as hard as that fastball is it’s string-straight and he doesn’t seem to have another pitch so hitters do get to it. Andrew Miller is joining Wainwright in the breeding farm these days, carrying a FIP near 6.00 as he also doesn’t seem to have any idea where the ball is going. Always a genius move to sign and aging reliever who has been worked like a mule the past four years to a multi-year deal, don’t you think? Let’s say the Cards are a touch short in the pen, but not like, Cubs-short.

For the Cubs, they’ll hopefully welcome Pedro Strop back sometime this weekend, and seeing as how everyone else in the pen is stepping on their tongue that will be greatly welcomed. Kris Bryant can look forward to being booed the whole weekend because he happened to speak a very unthreatening truth on a fake fucking talk show that was essentially a platform for aspiring bullhorn Ryan Dempster to get a show on Marquee. Not even joking, that’s what it was. But any slight is taken an a declaration of war down there, and don’t be shocked if Yadier just tackles Bryant in the batter’s box to defend the honor of his chosen hovel. This will be point #1 on his Hall resume according to St. Louis media and fans after the game, you watch.

It’s been a bit of a rough patch. The Cubs are 4-6 over their last 10, the pen is beaten down and dusted, and the rotation needs to reclaim its standing this weekend. They got a primer stopper effort from The Cerebral Assassin on Wednesday. Hopefully the rest pick up the baton. They swept these assholes last time. Let’s have that again.

Baseball

Cardinals Spotlight: He Can See For Miles And Miles…Because That’s Where The Baseball Is Going

By Sam Fels 1113 0

Most of the admittedly overly-puffy chested predictions before the season that had the Cardinals running neck and neck with the Cubs and Brewers were based on their rotation. It contained promising neophytes (they always are with the Cards) Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson. As always, there was hope that this would finally be the season that Michael Wacha didn’t shoot himself in the face repeatedly. And hey, maybe Adam Wainwright wouldn’t decompose on the mound…as quickly. And of course they returned scrapheap salvaged/hero Miles Mikolas, whom Phil Rogers definitely knew would work out better than Yu Darvish and he’ll tell you that again and again.

Well, the Cards are under .500, barely holding off the Reds in last, only one member of the rotation has an ERA under 4.00, and Mikolas’s is nearing 5.00. How could this clearly established rock of a rotation go off the boil?

It’s actually pretty strange. Mikolas’s numbers, almost uniformly, are pretty much the same as they were last year. Look for yourself:

K/9: 6.55 (2018), 6.65 (2019)

BB/9: 1.30, 1.44

WHIP: 1.07, 1.17

Left-on-base %: 76.2, 71.1

BABIP: .279, .274

Line-drive rate: 22.2%, 22.1%

Hard-contact rate: 32.6%, 35.9%

So the numbers this year are a smidge worse, except for the strikeouts, but no major changes. Is that enough to explain an ERA going from 2.83 and an outside Cy Young candidate to 4.76 and a FIP from 3.28 to 4.85? No, it’s not.

The big difference you’ll find is how the fly balls he’s giving up are turning out. Last year, he was about league-average in the percentage that became something that went over the mantlepiece for some red-clad palooka. This year, it’s 20.6%. That’s double the league-average (or at least the normal league-average, as this year with the golf balls being used it’s 14.6%). The flies that Mikolas is giving up are being hit harder this year, a 43.3% hard-contact rate on them as opposed to 37% last year. Still, a fifth of them landing out beyond the walls is a touch unfair.

There’s another issue Mikolas is facing. His slider, a definite weapon last year, is getting murdered this season. Last year, hitters managed only a .184 average and a .245 slugging against that pitch. This year it’s .302 and .561. That might be a reason he’s backed off of it this year. but that only results in more fastballs, which hitters will time up. Another problem Mikolas is facing is that his slider has lost about half of its tilt from last year to this one, making it more flat. He’s still getting the same amount of whiffs per swing when it’s offered at, but there’s a lot more loud contact on it, leaving Mikolas pretty much a fastball-curve guy. It’s hard to get by on two pitches alone. You can tell from the swing rates by zone that hitters are either recognizing it better, he’s having to start it outside the zone more, or both, because he’s not getting the swings down to his glove side that he did last year:

Mikolas will probably even out before too long. Even in this souped up era, that HR/FB rate is unjust. The Cardinals will need him to, because Wainwright and Wacha are too old to be saviors, and Flaherty and Hudson might be too young.

Everything Else

I’m Not Sure I’m Ready For A Corey Crawford Farewell Tour

By Sam Fels 1863 0

This is probably not the time to discuss it, as there will be plenty of opportunity starting in training camp. And whether Corey Crawford is Vezina-level again, or can’t find it at all, as the season moves toward the expiration of his contract at its conclusion, that question is only going to get bigger. But we’re not doing anything at the moment, so let’s at least get it started.

What prompts this is Kevin Lankinen’s gold-medal winning performance at the World Championships. Now, a hot two weeks doesn’t a prospect make. Lankinen only had 19 games at Rockford last year, and he wasn’t particularly good. He even spent some time in Indy. Then again, the year before, Collin Delia spent some time in Indy, had a hot few weeks in the AHL playoffs, and he’s something of the Hawks main prospect in net now.

Backing this up is that generally, Stan and his front office have been pretty good at identifying young goalies. That’s how I’m going to get around the whole Cam Ward thing. Stan has cycled through Antti Niemi, Crawford himself (only sorta but he did get the starting job under Stan), Antti Raanta, and Scott Darling, who have all had at least reasonable NHL success at times. They did salvage Ray Emery. A bunch of others haven’t worked out, but the ones that get to Rockford tend to be something.

Whatever, the Hawks likely will enter camp with Lankinen and Delia to battle it out for the backup spot. And anyone in the backup spot to Crawford these days has to be trusted to take the wheel for a stretch or two at least. This is a spot where the Hawks can save some cash, because any viable, veteran backup might eat up two to three million that can be used elsewhere.

But the question that will come with whoever wins the job (and you can see where they’ll rotate between the backup and Rockford and both gets starts on the top roster) is whether or not they’ll be ready to take over the following season. Or whether they’ll get the chance.

Crow is entering his age-35 season. And you’re hard-pressed to find too many goalies who go beyond that. I don’t think it’s fair to compare anything to Tim Thomas, as that appears to be a strange, tin-foil hatted, bunker-filling anomaly that won’t happen again. He came out of nowhere, which isn’t the story with just about anyone else, especially Crawford. Pekka Rinne just finished his age-36 season, and it was pretty all right in a total .918 and more encouragingly, he closed strong in March and April. Roberto Luongo had solid seasons at 35, 36, and 38. Beyond that though to find really good seasons past 35, you’d be hard-pressed. Good seasons, yes. Mike Smith had one (that’s not a name that will make you feel better though), Ryan Miller had one, one or two other names.

On the flip side, Henrik Lundqvist, perhaps the best goalie of the generation and one that Crawford has, y’know, the same lifetime SV% as, started to go stale last year at 36. To be fair, he was behind a horrible Rangers team, and his actual save-percentage at evens was higher than his expected, so maybe he was just drowning thanks to his defense. We’ll see next year.

It’s not that I’m worried about Crawford turning bad in the next year or two. That’s purely tied to health, and as we saw in March last season that a healthy Crow still put up a .920 behind one of the worst defenses of the decade. Even that Crow is still going to leave the Hawks with a decision.

The scenario you easily see, given what you know about the Hawks’ operating history, is that Crow has a blistering October and November, and is handed a two- or three-year extension right then and there. We know the Hawks like to take care of their guys. We know they don’t like to let anyone important get into the last year of their deal at all. Only Crow’s health has allowed him to get this far into his contract without an extension, I’m sure.

In a vacuum, you’d let it all play out. You see how Crow plays, you see how the kids play, you decide next summer. But we know the Hawks don’t operate in a vacuum, and they’re utterly terrified of facing questions like this during the season. They never really have. Keith was locked up to prevent that ever happening. Toews and Kane were re-signed as soon as possible. Seabrook signed his deal before the last year of his previous contract ever started. Going back farther, Patrick Sharp was extended before getting close to free agency. Hjalmarsson was signed to his last extension before the last season of his previous contract started as well. The Hawks just don’t do this.

But none of them were 35, or going to be in-season. None of them had the health industry. None of them, pretty much, had the sometimes dicey relationship with the organization that Crow has had in the past.

As we’ve previously discussed, the Hawks will have some big checks to sign next summer to Alex DeBrincat and possibly Dylan Strome, with smaller but possibly not insignificant checks to go to Dominik Kahun or Dominik Kubalik (and possibly Erik Gustafsson if they want to make a huge mistake). Savings have to come from somewhere.

I’m just not ready for any of this.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Indians vs. White Sox: Swapsies?

By Sam Fels 1251 0

vs.

RECORDS: Indians 28-29    White Sox 26-29

GAMETIMES: Thursday and Friday 7:10, Saturday and Sunday 1:10

TV: Thursday, Saturday, Sunday NBCSN, Friday WGN

PREPARING THE VIKING FUNERAL: Let’s Go Tribe

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Carlos Carrasco vs. Manny Banuelos

Trevor Bauer vs. Dylan Covey

Jefry Rodriguez vs. Ivan Nova

Zach Plesac vs. Lucas Giolito

PROBABLE INDIANS LINEUP

Francisco Lindor – SS

Oscar Mercado – CF

Carlos Santana – 1B

Jordan Luplow – RF

Jose Ramirez – 3B

Roberto Perez – C

Jake Bauers – 1B

Greg Allen – LF

Mike Freeman – 2B

PROBABLE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonso – DH

James McCann – C

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Charlie Tilson – RF

 

An actual torch-passing would be overselling it by a factor of three. And there are no torches for teams that aren’t leading the division, or even close, or even .500. So it’s not that. But there is something about the Sox being able to pass Cleveland in the standings at the end of this four-game set on 35th this weekend. They’re only a game behind, so any kind of series win would do it. That doesn’t mean that the Sox are in any way primed to charge at the Twins, and last weekend pretty much proved that. What it does signify is that Cleveland’s era of lording over the Central is almost certainly over, and their window of contention might be as well. What they do with that is going to become the main question on the Cuyahoga the next couple months.

The Sox have played The Tribe enough this year that you’re intimately familiar with the issues. Two-fifths of their rotation is on the shelf for an extended period of time in Mike Clevinger and Corey Kluber. Three if you wanted to count Danny Salazar among the starters, though that’s a stretch.

What is healthy hasn’t been any damn good, at least not with lumber in their hands. Lindor appears to be emerging from his early season malaise, but other than Santana everyone else has looked like the guy playing the Gashouse Gorillas before Bugs took over. Jordan Luplow has ground the Sox bones into his bread but hasn’t done jack or shit against anyone else. Another kid in Bauers has been given the first base job to win, and he’s hitting .215. Put plainly, they rank third-from-last in runs in the AL and team wOBA, which is at a gruesome .298. Even a reclamation of Ramirez probably isn’t enough to save this team. Luplow and Bauers converting their promise to tangible might be enough, but there probably isn’t time to wait for that.

Which puts Cleveland on the precipice of having to cash in on what they can and start over. They have both Ramirez and Lindor through 2022, which is a start (assuming Ramirez isn’t a smoldering corpse permanently). What could they turn in at the deadline and try and collect chips on? Kluber has two team option years left, neither of which are even $20M, which would make him awfully attractive. Though he may not want to go unless teams guarantee they won’t pick those up. Trevor Bauer has one more arbitration year left, and even though he’s Captain Space Brain some team will find that attractive. With Clevinger and Bieber around for a while, those are blows the Tribe could soak up and survive, you would think. Carrasco has an extremely team-friendly deal and could net them a Quintana-like package. Except he’s already 32, though he did just have a 2.94 FIP last year. There are pieces.

The Sox will see another kid who could make up for the blow of whatever pitchers the Indians move along, and that’s in Zach Plesac. Plesac rocketed through the system this year, starting in Double-A but needed only six starts there with a 0.98 ERA to move up a level. Then in three AAA starts he struck out 22 while walking one, so here he is. The only let-up for the Sox is that Bauer hasn’t been all that good, they’ve already lit him up once, and then Gasoline Alley Jefry on Saturday afternoon.

It’s not a torch passing. But it is one team watching it all close while the other is trying to jimmy theirs open (phrasing?). What we’re saying is there’s symbolism here if you want to find it. Or don’t. We don’t are.