Baseball

Series Recap: Sox Lose 3 of 4 To Twins – Whammy

By Andy Jonathan 1237 0

Game 1: Sox 3 – Twins 10

Game 2: Sox 2 – Twins 6

Game 3: Sox 5 – Twins 1

Game 4: Sox 1 – Twins 11

 

This is exactly how I feared this weekend would go. The Sox aren’t hitting very well lately, the starters (minus Ivan Nova, what a world) aren’t pitching very well, and Renteria isn’t coaching very well. Oh, and I guess Rick Hahn hasn’t GM’ed very well so far either. All of that adds up to a very miserable weekend of baseball on the South Side, and (based on the groan I heard from Wrigley last night) in Chicago overall. Time to sift through the rubble and talk about what went wrong (lots), and what went right (not lots). To the bullets.

 

Numbers Don’t Lie

-Let’s just get this out of the way: Dylan Covey is just plain awful. He’s not a major league starter right now, and I’d put the odds at 1,000 to 1 that he never will be. Thankfully he was banished back to Charlotte after the game, which on a personal level has to suck something fierce.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Renteria told him there was an Uber waiting for him at the curb when he walked to the mound in the first inning.  I have no idea what or who the fifth starter is going to be, but the spot won’t come up until after the trade deadline so maybe Rick Hahn will pull something fun in the next few days that will help with that (Narrator: He didn’t).

-Lucas Giolito has had three shitty starts now out of his last five and is winless in the month of July. I know he talks a lot about knowing what’s wrong with his fastball and change, but knowing what’s wrong and doing something about it are two totally different things. Regression was inevitable for this Sox team, I just didn’t think it would all happen at once. Giolito will get one more chance to score a July win on Wednesday, but no guarantees there as it will be against Jake deGrom.  Here’s hoping.

-Whoops, Nelson Cruz just hit another fucking home run. Good thing the Sox were never considering him as he wasn’t on Manny Machado’s iphone Favorite Contacts list.

-AJ Reed pitched a scoreless inning Sunday, which is the best thing he managed for this team all weekend. On the other side of the ball he went 0-10 with a walk, an RBI, and six left stranded on base. Best case scenario the Sox got him and Covey an Uber Pool ride to MDW and they’re never seen from again.

-Yoan Moncada is a badass.

-I’m kinda starting to like Ryan Goins, and if the Sox happen to move on from Yolmer or Leury Garcia at the deadline Wednesday I’d be OK with him getting more reps in the infield.

-Ivan Nova is having a mini-resurgance, as that’s two solid starts in a row now. He’s gone 15 innings in those two games, giving up one ER with six hits and one BB.  He’s not striking anyone out, but for a 5th starter (which, in a perfect world he would be the Sox 5th starter instead of their 2nd) you can do a whole lot worse. Keep it up.

-Dylan Cease had yet another terrible inning in the middle of a pretty solid start. These are the growing pains you have to deal with when young pitchers come up, and I’m WAY more willing to watch that than a Covey/Despaigne/Homeless Guy From Outside Al’s Beef start.

-Eloy is back, and that’s the best thing that happened Sunday. Odds are Timmy is back Tuesday for the Mets, so that would bring the total dead spots in the Sox lineup down to two. Huzzah!

-Next up is the Mets, who have an even bigger tire fire in their front office than the Sox do.  Unfortunately for us, Syndergaard and deGrom are the 2 potential starters unless Thor is traded (from what I’m reading on the tweets, however, is that the Mets asking price for him involves the Hope Diamond so I think we might be outta luck). Sure would be nice to have a few quality starts from Lopez and Giolito to erase the shit show the post-All Star break start has been.

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Blow Their Own Toes Off Two Of Three Times Vs. Brewers: So You’re Serious About This?

By Sam Fels 1455 0

Game 1 Box Score: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

Game 2 Box Score: Brewers 5, Cubs 3

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 11, Brewers 4

Whatever hopes I had of the Cubs turning into an actual plus team, or at least one that can fake it, pretty much died this weekend. That doesn’t mean they can’t win the division. They still very well might, and I am tempted to say probably might. They could even win a series or two in the playoffs. Stranger things have happened.

But that’s just it. I’m now sort of relying on the “stranger things have happened” portion of my baseball brain/fandom. This was a chance for the Cubs to play like the big boys they claim to be. They didn’t do it. And there are just enough flaws0–the bottom half of the roster and the bullpen–that can’t be entirely fixed before the trade deadline and will just keep the Cubs from ever ripping off 14 of 17 or something like it to put this division to bed.

It’s going to be the drunk sex-est version of the last two months possible. Let’s run it through.

The Two Obs

-Let’s start right at the headline of the weekend and that’s Joe Maddon’s handling of his pitching staff. Now, according to any spreadsheet or analysis, pulling Hendricks after five on Friday is actually the right move. The value of one more inning out of Hendricks, the max you would get, is not equal to Kyle Schwarber taking that AB which essentially became a leadoff one after Bote homered with no outs. In a vacuum, or usually, that would be the right move.

Usually.

However, that doesn’t factor in the utter shambles the pen is right now, and Joe’s plan to get 12 outs involved absolutely nothing going wrong. With this bullpen. It’s the same thing that got Joe in Game 163 last year (what is it about the Brewers?). Normally, not letting your starter see the lineup for a third time, as Joe chose to do back in October, is the right call. But that assumes you have anyone who can consistently get outs from the pen, which you don’t have. In this case, the actual tools at Joe’s disposal outweigh what the “right” call is.

So things don’t go right, everyone throws too many pitches, and you have to use Strop. Who can claim he’s healthy all he wants but it’s pretty clear he isn’t.

-Then again, we’re not talking about any of this, probably, if Eric Thames is rightly rung up. Check out #3 here:

Or there was a pitch to Hiura before that that was a strike. If I want to be Sammy Sunshine, then the Cubs take two of three and we don’t worry so much. On such margins…

-Let’s skip to today and then get to the rest. Still up four runs, Joe pulled Q to get to a pen that just set the season on fire again. Yes, it was a bad 5th inning, but it’s not like Q was getting whacked around. The walks were bad, but he had gotten Saladino to strike out, Cain to lazily fly out, and Yelich’s double was off his fists and simply flared out to the right spot. Yes, you’ve got the off day tomorrow, but you still need innings from your starter. Joe got away with this, but had it gone balls-up it was not hard to see Joe looking for a job by Tuesday.

-Of his last eight outings, Cishek has only managed a clean one in two of them (no hits, no runs). He’s going to be toast earlier this season than last because Joe goes to him five times a week. Using him in the 8th last night was inexplicable, and Wick getting the Cubs out of it only made it more so. Yeah yeah yeah, not wanting to toss an untested kid into big spots and all that. Well that’s if the rest of your pen isn’t disgruntled clowns. He’s here, he has to pitch. This isn’t so hard.

-Right, to Kimbrel. I feel like anything this season we’re just going to have to live with, given the weird build-up for him. The dude probably hasn’t had March-June off since he was like eight years old. Most of the time he’ll look fine if not great. But there are going to be spotty outings, and that’s even with ceding the fact that sometimes the reigning MVP will just do that to you sometimes.

-Maybe moving out of the leadoff spot leads to the Schwarber binge. Maybe it’s too much pressure. That’s two high-leverage situations he finally homered in, so that’s a whole thing. That second homer is a juiced ball joke there, as that was a defensive swing. Then again, so was Yelich’s last night, so it giveth and taketh away.

-The importance of walks and hustle. Happ extends two innings for Schwarber. Contreras beats out some shoddy Brewer defense before Caratini’s homer. At least this was the kind of shit the Cubs weren’t doing earlier.

-Bryant looked terrible the past two days, and it would be a major surprise if he escapes an IL stint to deal with the knee that’s bothering him.

Hey, it could all still look ok with a sweep of the Cardinals. Onwards…

Football

The Ghosts of Training Camps Past: Mixtape

By Tony Martin 1181 0

A new season is upon us, friends. Back to school sales and 90 degree days highlight the end of July and beginning of August, but as a teacher I gotta tell you that the anxiety I get from the end of summer is always easier knowing that football is starting up again.

It’s also the time of the year where the constant search for “Song of the Summer” has really hit it’s groove; we’re all looking for that iconic track that we can play as the days of aimless BBQ and Naturday pounding roll on. So, in an attempt to reconcile these major phenomenon, I’ve made a summer mixtape themed by previous Chicago Bears training camp moments.

1. Miley Cyrus- “Wrecking Ball”: Curtis Enis reports to training camp in 1999 in a Hummer. The only thing that dude could wreck were the hopes and dreams of Shane Matthews asking for decent blitz pickup. Also worth mentioning: that dude can wreck a buffet. The best thing Curtis Enis brought to my life was the time my friend’s dad stitched a “P” on the back of one of his jerseys. My dad’s friend was a Packer fan, so it took me a few years to appreciate his comic genius.

2. Chance the Rapper- “Groceries”: Darnell Autry looks like he can play pro football in 1997. I was 11 and I would’ve bet all the Beanie Babies on Earth that he was going to be a future MVP. Whoops. Two local products, one of which is a globetrotting artist with a Grammy, and one that couldn’t stay in the pros.

3. Meat Wave- “It’s Not Alright”: Mike Glennon touted for his leadership during 2017 training camp. Does this need an explanation?

4. Pelafina- “Significant Weather”: The 2015 shift to a 3-4 defense for the first time in franchise history. The chorus to this song is “this heaven is ours”, and all I can do is picture Roquan Smith and I skipping through a field laughing. Somewhere, Ted Washington and Keith Traylor are upset and hungry. The Bears shifting to a new defensive front 4 years ago has been absolute heaven for me.

5. The Beatles- “Tomorrow Never Knows”: 2007, fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, the Bears move Devin Hester to wide receiver. Did this move ruin the greatest return man in history? Would he have continued his tear as a punt returner if he wasn’t also tasked with learning the offense?

6. Jar’d Loose- “Coming Like a Nightmare”: 2003, the rookie campaigns of both Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. Fun fact, Jar’d Loose named their band as an homage to the “Peanut Punch” created by Tillman. This one is less training camp based and more of me bragging that I know a metal band named after the greatest Bears defensive back of all time.

7. The Red Army Choir- “National Anthem of the Soviet Union”: Roquan Smith (or any Bear) holds out of training camp because of a salary dispute. Now, I’m not a Communist, but when a player holds out for more money I inherently take their side, because the McCaskey’s sure as hell aren’t taking long term body/brain damage for my entertainment. PAY THE MAN!

8. Any Hatebreed song: Training camp brawls. Look, I don’t want to see fights during training camp, but if you aren’t at least entertained knowing that Kyle Long is ready to demolish anyone by early August, I got nothing for you.

9. Judas Priest- “You Got Another Thing Coming” RE: all the pundits predicting a Green Bay division title in 2019.

Hockey

Friday Foofaraw: Our Famous Blackhawks Convention Primer

By Sam Fels 1881 0

It’s that time of year again, when John McDonough tries to neuralize the past three or four seasons from Hawks fans’ brains and make them buy stuff! If you’re heading to the Convention, here’s our handy guide to what’s really going on downtown all weekend. 

Friday

5pm – Opening Ceremonies: Hey, do you love championship parades, but without the actual cathartic journey of a season, or actual success, or the actual parade, but just the rally at the end where players stand awkwardly in their jerseys in the heat? Well then this is for you! They’ll even sing the national anthem for no reason!

8pm – Blackhawks Variety Show: Do you like what the Cubs have done with Ryan Dempster, where middling comedians feed him lines he half-delivers (I can say that because I’m friends with them)? Well watch us try it with even dumber Canadians! Except Adam Burish, who is from Wisconsin, which is probably worse. Enjoy the journey of Burish and Dempster one day becoming Chicago’s Statler and Waldorf on all sports.

Saturday

8am – Blackhawks Fitness Presents Pure Barre: Wasn’t Barre like the trend five years ago? How hockey is this that even at a gimmick convention they’re still behind the times? What would be contemporary? OrangeTheory? That nutcase Mark Lazerus just went to work out with? Whatever.

9am – “On The Clock” With Kirby Dach: Follow Dach’s and the Hawks’ journey to what could be a franchise turning moment with the #3 pick…or all the ways he’s not Bowen Byram.

9:30 – Colliton’s Command: You’ll get the chance to make Colliton cry just like Chris Block did in Rockford. Don’t bother asking any questions, because every answer (including during the season) is just going to be…

10:30 – “My Next Guest Is…” with Patrick Kane: Can’t we give Bob Verdi something better to do? Can we get him writing for the Trib again? God knows they could fucking use it. I didn’t realize how good we had it with him and Bernie Lincicome as columnists when I was a kid. And then Bernie went off the goddamn deep end himself.

11:30 – Blackhawks Leadership: Do you want to see a bunch of entrenched white guys who’ll never lose their job but can’t afford to visit Congress? Well, here ya go. Come watch McDonough, Rocky, and Seabrook point at three banners the entire time.

12:30pm – Kids Only Press Conference: You can apparently ask Tommy Hawk a question, even though I’m fairly sure birds don’t talk. Why it’s called “birdwatching” not “bird discussion.” Some parent is going to try and get their child to ask Connor Murphy what it will be like to be traded to Vancouver because of cap concerns though, I’m sure.

2pm – Blackhawks Family Feud: By holding it this early the Hawks are hopeful, just, that Jeremy Roenick won’t be drunk enough to spout something stupid/racist. Why did we continue this show after Richard Dawson was pawing at everything on set before falling down in his own vomit? Have you ever watched Steve Harvey zombie his way through the real thing? The man almost literally cashes his check on camera. But hey, more power to him.

2pm – Hockey Operations: Is it a coincidence they’re having this panel directly opposite the fun and light gameshow one with Hawks legends? Of course it’s not fucko! How dare you think such a thing! Get a look inside the front office as they stare blankly at scouting reports before asking each other, “Hey who was that guy who played on our third line fiveyears ago? Let’s get him back. No way he’ll be worse because he’s older now.”

3:30 – Welcome Back Andrew Shaw: Do not be shocked if they have him come out and beat up one of those dolls the Hanson Brothers do when they make appearances. In fact, maybe Shaw will be dressed as a Hanson brother. I mean, that’s essentially what we’re doing here, right?

4pm – Blackhawks Top Prospects: After answering a fan’s question with, “Yeah, I think I should be on the team this year, I mean, have you seen this oil spill that wears #7? Boqvist is traded to Tampa on Sunday.

4:30 – Reliving The 2010 Stanley Cup: Hooo boy, get ready for this all the time. When you don’t have anything going on presently, nothing sates the people like pumping as many CCs of nostalgia straight into their veins, even if 10 years barely counts as nostalgia. The look on Duncan Keith’s face during all of this next season is going to be priceless. Come hear Adam Burish talk about the one thing that makes anyone know who he is, even though Chris Pronger should have rightly killed him directly afterward. And maybe Dave Bolland can get his wheelchair up the dais!

6:15 – Team Hochberg Shoot The Puck Challenge: Can we get this Hochberg guy to fight that Ankin guy to the death at an intermission some time?

6:30 – The Second City: It’s like the Variety Show but worse! I do this rant every year, but I can never say it enough. Second City is a goddamn scam. While it has produced some very talented people, it has used those names to create an assembly line of incomprehensibly mediocre talents who simply kept paying their money to the name and were moved along simply due to that. But hey, no better way to learn how to be funny to tourist and rubes!

Sunday

10am – “Blackhawks Talk” with Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat: Watch Pat Boyle (how is this guy still involved, really?) lob softballs at no-way hungover Strome and DeBrincat. They’ll talk about heading out of their entry-level deals, with Top Cat trying to refrain from yelling, “I’M RICH BIATCH!” and Strome trying to convince everyone he’s not Schmaltz II.

11am – Storytelling With Hockey Hall of Famers: Boy, you have to love a segment that’s called “storytelling” with a bunch of people who took blows to the head for a living. That’s it’s own storytelling right there, people.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Brewers: Please Stand Up

By Sam Fels 1172 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 55-47   Brewers 54-50

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: NBCSN Friday, ABC 7 Saturday and Sunday

YA HEY DERE: Brew Crew Ball

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Gio Gonzalez

Jon Lester vs. Chase Anderson

Jose Quintana vs. Zach Davies

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Javier Baez – SS

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Willson Contreras – C

Robel Garcia – 2B

David Bote – 3B

Ian Happ – CF

PROBABLE BREWERS LINEUP

Lorenzo Cain – CF

Christian Yelich – RF

Yasmani Grandal – C

Mike Moustakas – 3B

Ryan Braun – LF’

Eric Thames – 1B

Keston Hiura – 2B

Orlando Arcia – SS

 

Let’s cast our mind back to 2008. At the end of July that year, a Cubs team that had stormed out of the gates had a bit of a slip, and the Brewers behind them had gotten within touching distance. A series at this time was billed as a division decider, or at least a big indicator. The Cubs proceeded to turn the Brewers brains into mush for four games, and the division was never under discussion again.

To 2015. The Cubs had gotten into the wildcard discussion, but entered a four-game series against the wildcard leading Giants three games back. They beat the Giants every which way twice for four games, moved into the wildcard spot behind the Pirates, never looked back.

2016. The Cubs had stomped all over the NL for the entire season so they never actually had to worry about this shit.

2017. A little later in the season, but a Cubs team that kind of muddled through the whole season trying to find ways to shove its head up its rectum faced six games in September against the Cardinals. They took five of them, including clinching the division in St. Louis and making them watch.

2018. The Cubs faced a decisive Labor Day weekend series in Milwaukee. They got what appeared to be a season-defining, game-turning homer from Anthony Rizzo off Josh Hader, and everything seemed poised to right itself.

Then Carl Edwards Jr. went to the zoo, and you know how the rest goes. See the difference?

It feels like the rest of this road trip is one of those moments for these Cubs. Six games against the other competitors in the Central. On the road, where they have to unfuck themselves tout suite if they have any designs of being something. A scuffling Brewers team that can’t get a start from anyone and has a couple players decaying rapidly in the outfield. The Cubs can’t end the Brewers season here, not with two months to go and the gap so small. But they can certainly make it more challenging, and they can throw some serious questions the Brewers would have to wrestle with. Although, they could end up doing the same to themselves.

Since June 1st, the Brewers are 22-24. In that time, they have a 5.22 ERA from their starters and a 4.69 ERA from their relievers, which is worse than the Cubs even if you don’t believe it. They haven’t even hit that well, though fifth in the worse-than-you-thought NL in the past seven weeks. But that’s what’s kept them somewhat afloat, though the generous nature of the division hasn’t hurt them either.

Yelich you know about. Hiura has done his part to fill in as well, but Moustakas has cooled off considerably since his mega-start. Ryan Braun will occasionally flash the form of old, and he assuredly will again this weekend because that’s what we’ve been sentenced to for our perceived sins, but a lot more of the time he looks like he got his foot stuck in a garbage can. Eric Thames has taken up the mantle after Jesus Aguilar went back to whatever upside-down he emerged from last year, but hasn’t quite matched the production of Aguilar of ’18. Lorenzo Cain died, and yet still hits leadoff for this team. You could argue Craig Counsell has been beholden to name value too much, as Braun and especially Cain probably don’t deserve to hit as high in the lineup as they have based on what they’ve done this year.

He’s got bigger problems in the rotation, though. Brandon Woodruff just went TWANG! and is out until September. Chase Anderson and Kyle Davies have kept the ship afloat of late, but Jhoulys Chacin went back to being Jhoulys Chacin and Gio Gonzalez has been meat for everyone but the Cubs for years now. The Cubs will get a chance to put that right tonight, though consider their struggles against lefties–i.e. having to play some or all of Almora, Bote, and until now Russell–don’t hold your breath. If any lefty can get the Cubs bats going, it’s Gonzalez, who is striking out all of two hitters per nine the past month.

The problems extend to the pen as well. It was never going to match last year’s dominance, because that’s not what pens do. Hader has been good, at times more so, but at other times gettable as he’s actually given up homers this season. Freddy Peralta has some scary strikeout numbers of late but also some scary walk numbers, too. You go ahead and trust Jeremy Jeffress long term if you choose, you can get your pleasure through pain, y’know. Junior Guerra? Get outta here.

For the Cubs, they made a small move today in telling Tim Collins to do one while picking up Derek Holland from the Giants. Holland’s numbers are horrific, but mostly as a starter. Here he’ll be asked to get lefties out, which he’s done pretty effectively. This is exactly the kind of move you make for a bullpen. Costs you nothing, might get something.

In addition, Ian Happ is up, though no word if he’ll go straight into the lineup or not. You’d have to believe he will though, and he’s been better this year right-handed so that’ll just about do it for Almora’s playing time for a while. He could also be playing left for Schwarber to sit against a lefty. We’ll see.

No more bullshit. The Cubs have it in their hands for the next seven days. Do the thing, get yourself out ahead, and play with a lead. Time to play like you were designed or to shut the fuck up about it.

Baseball

Brewers Spotlight: In The Midnight Hour

By Sam Fels 1217 0

Christian Yelich will tell you there haven’t been any swing changes. He’s not trying to make a more uppercut swing. Cubs fans will tell you it’s all the product of strange vents and signals at Miller Park. Brewers fans will tell you they just got the right player at the right time. There’s obviously way more to it and different than that, but whatever the cause, the Brewers have a player who is living in Trout-land this year (you really need to take a minute to consider that as bananas as Yelich’s season is, this is the year Trout puts up every time out. This is just the norm for him. He just shits them out).

While it certainly hurts that the Cubs placed calls to the Marlins about Yelich only to watch him go up the wrong side of I-94, they never could have matched the package the Brewers sent south, nor could anyone have predicted this is what the Brewers would get. While Yelich was certainly entering or had just entered his prime upon moving from Miami to Milwaukee, you don’t expect this kind of spike. “Spike” probably doesn’t even convey it correctly. “Eruption” comes closer.

So what’s fueling the jump from his Marlins days to last year, and last year to this year? Appears to be a couple things, but we’ll see if we can’t find out.

As a Marlin, Yelich used to be your gap-to-gap, line-drive guy. And he still hits a fair amount of line-drives, but over the past two seasons he’s been less and less concerned with going the opposite way. Though when your home stadium rigs your pulled fly balls to ride the jet stream into the bratwurst of Bob and Beverly from Fond du Lac, why wouldn’t you pull the ball as much as you could? Yelich’s opposite field percentage dropped to 27% last year from its usual perch around 30%, and this year it’s a mere 20% as he’s gone whole-hog on the grip-and-rip-it school of hitting philosophy.

He’s taken that last part to a bit of an extreme this year, as he’s swinging at almost 10% more pitches in the zone than he did last year. For the first time in his career he’s above league-average in that department. And much like Anthony Rizzo, there doesn’t seem to be too many places you can go on him now that he can’t get to and do something with. Look at this stupid chart:

So like, low and in is just about the only place. But he can cover all the way past the outside corner while also being able to turn on anything on his hands, keep it fair and send it far. That’s a pretty small target to hit to find salvation on him. Even compared to last year, you really have to go to the extremes to make him miss, and he’s still awfully disciplined so he’s not going to chase the ridiculous:

So yeah, you can’t throw strikes to him because he’ll crush those, and he won’t chase but if he does he’ll probably get to those too and deposit it in a gap somewhere. Great.

Yelich is also hitting the ball harder than just about anyone else, though he always has. His average exit-velocity has always been 92 MPH or above, except for his last year in Miami. So all the Brewers had to do was to encourage him to get it higher, and well here you go. There’s been a ridiculous spike in that this year, with 38.5% of his contact being considered fly balls, compared to just 23% last year. And this is where you might see some swing changes:

So everything in the middle of the zone he’s sending up now, same goes for high in the zone, and even above the zone he’s putting into the air. And in case you think he’s wasting his time going above the zone, he’s slugging over 1.000 in each of the three spots above the strike zone. You can’t beat him high. But go low in the zone and he thwacks those for the line-drives he still puts up and slugs over 1.000 there too. So yeah, you’re fucked.

And the Brewers have needed it to hang on in the Central, thanks to Lorenzo Cain turning into a fine paste at the plate and Jesus Aguilar running dropping and breaking the vial of magic elixir he had leftover from last year. No one has backed up MVP wins in the NL in a decade since Pujols did it. Cody Bellinger will have a say, but the Dodgers are going to be fine if he drops off a bit. The Brewers need every single bit of this from Yelich. Lucky it looks like this is what he is now.

Football

Once Again, The Burden Of Expectation

By Sam Fels 1451 0

Oh I got football thoughts, buddy.

We’ve been here before. No matter who you follow, or what you’ve come here to read, you know. The comparisons ran all last season. The ’08-’09 Hawks. The 2015 Cubs. And now the 2018 Bears. Seasons that went far better than expected, teams filled with young(ish) stars announcing themselves on the big stage for the first time, unadulterated joy from the off (well, after the Packers game that is). The first two portended to much bigger stuff. But before we got to that, we had months of just living in a fantasy world where no one really had to worry about the bigger implications to come. You got to be in the moment, completely, which is rare anywhere these days.

So the Bears find themselves in between the steps that both the Hawks and Cubs took. The larger implications are here now, which really means the expectations. Anything less than confetti showers and Virginia McCaskey being knocked over by trying to hold the Lombardi Trophy will be considered failure. The pure exhilaration of last year, the seemingly out-of-nowhere success, AN ACTUAL USEFUL BEARS TEAM FOR FUCK’S SAKE, that’s all gone now. Every win will have a context, a meaning to what comes next, until you get to the end. It’s now a simply pass/fail class.

And yet, football is different (wow, keen analysis, hockey boy). Whereas those seasons for the Hawks and Bears ended with nothing but expectation and excitement for the following campaign, there is a feeling of missed opportunity for the Bears. One, they weren’t simply outclassed at the last hurdle like the Hawks were back then by the Wings. Or simply helpless at the feet of a machine that had everything go right, as the Cubs did that year to the Mets pitching staff (which has never been able to duplicate it since because METS). The NFC was open for the Bears, and they lost to Nick Foles tossing up wounded turkeys that they could only pick off twice instead of the four it should have been. The Rams and Saints were obviously vulnerable, too. It was all there for them.

Internally, the Bears may never have as healthy and functional of a defense as they did last season. Already we have the questions about Chuck Pagano taking over for (Boers Voice) Vic Fangio. Adrian Amos is gone. So’s Bryce Callahan. HaHa Clinton-Dix has pedigree, but is far from a sure thing. Buster Skrine certainly gives the platform for a ton of Coen Brothers jokes, but will he be as exposed as non-Callahan slot corners were last year? And that’s not even getting into health, because it’s unlikely you’ll get 16 games of Earth-destroying play from Akiem Hicks again. Those four picks could have happened if Eddie Jackson was on the field. Will the defense suffer if he misses time again?

Of course, we’ve been here before with the Bears. The 2005 season was the same kind of joy, with another young, brash, emerging defense (though absolutely carrying a decidedly wagon-wheel offense). It ended with a bitter playoff loss at home as well (where your local mechanic was covering Steve Smith for some reason). It felt like the Bears missed something then too, as the Seahawks were hardly a great team.

But the 2006 Bears responded, didn’t shy from the expectations and predictions, roaring to a 7-0 start and eventually a 13-3 record (only the third time the franchise has amassed 13 wins or more, which seems off). We won’t talk about how that ended.

And just like before that season, a lot of hope hinges on a quarterback we have more questions than answers about. Just like Rex did before it all became clear, there are flashes of top-level throws and plays from Mitch. And then there are the ones that leave you with an expression on your face that if you hold for just one second longer will cause permanent damage to the muscles contained therein. We just don’t know. Anyone who says they know is selling something. But Mitch will be swallowed and spit out by this town if they even get a whiff that he’ll be a reason it doesn’t get its second Super Bowl. We’ve done it before.

If you Occam’s Razor this, the most likely ending is with the Bears in the NFC Championship game at worst. There are playmakers all over the field. You can’t make the QB’s job much cushier. The defense is laden with game-turners. They have the swagger already. And while you know there will be injuries, they could just as easily be small and to non-vital players or vital ones for just a week instead of catastrophe. It can go either way.

It just won’t be possible to be as in the moment as we were last year. You’ll always have one eye on the end this time around. You can’t say, “This is so much fun, it doesn’t matter where it goes.” We already did that. You only get it once. You can try, and you’ll maybe even succeed for a short time.

But January will still deal the only feeling and verdict that matters for this team. And this is a definite chance. Unless you’re the Patriots and you’ve found some vortex that only they can see, you only get three or four years. Hell, the Bears are three years away from having to pay Trubisky the boat and losing other pieces to do so or concluding he’s not good enough–which probably means you haven’t won–and starting over.

It goes fast in football. Faster than anywhere else. You can’t miss the bear now.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Twins: Monkey Knife Fight

By Andy Jonathan 2200 0

vs.

Records: Twins 61-40   White Sox 45-54

Gametimes: Thursday & Friday 7:10/Saturday 6:10/Sunday 1:10

TV: Thursday/Friday/Sunday NBCSN – Saturday WGN

Ozzie Guillen’s Kryptonite: Puckett’s Pond

Pitching Matchups:

Jose Berrios vs. Lucas Giolito

Michael Pineda vs. Dylan Cease

Martin Perez vs. Chevy Nova

Kyle Gibson vs. Dylan Fucking Covey Again

PROBABLE TWINS LINEUP

  1. Max Kepler – CF
  2. Jorge Polanco – SS
  3. Nelson Cruz – DH
  4. Mitch Garver – C
  5. Marwin Gonzalez – RF
  6. Eddie Rosario – LF
  7. Jonathan Schoop – 2B
  8. Luis Arraez– 3B
  9. Miguel Sano – 1B

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

  1. Leury Garcia – RF
  2. Yoan Moncada – 3B
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B
  4. James McCann – C
  5. Ryan Goins – SS
  6. Jon Jay – LF
  7. AJ Reed – DH/Appetizers
  8. Yolmer Sanchez – 2B
  9. Adam Engel – CF

 

Here we go again with these guys. Since the last meeting between the two rivals, the Sox and Twins haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory. The Twins have gone 9-10 whilst the Sox shit all over themselves post-ASB to the tune of 6-10. The Twins come into the series having given up approximately 3,000 runs to the Yankees while scoring 2,900 in a series where the Bronx took two of the three. The Sox did the opposite, giving up hardly anything to the Marlins but not hitting anything after the first night win.The Twins could really use a series win to turn their fortunes around, and the Sox could use a few wins to build momentum of their own after gagging out two losses against one of the league’s worst teams.

The Twins come into the series as one of the hotter hitting teams in the AL. Unfortunately for them, the Regression Monster has come home to roost for their starting rotation, which has been giving up as many runs as the Twins have been blasting out. Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez, and Michael Pineda have all seen their ERA rise dramatically in the past few weeks. Even staff ace Jose Berrios has had a few rough outings of his own, though not to the extent of the other three. Kyle Gibson is the trend breaker, as he was never that good to begin with so he didn’t have that far to fall.

Like I mentioned above, the offense for the Twinkies has been carrying them to most of their wins. Polanco, Cruz, Rosario, and Kepler have been banging out hits at an alarming rate, and Miguel Sano has cut his strikeouts and gotten his OBP up to more respectable levels to go along with his considerable power. The Twins are still missing wunderkind Byron Buxton, who’s been banished to the dark room with a case of brown brain after making yet another highlight reel diving catch in center field. CJ Cron, who had been having a pretty solid year as well, goes back on the IL with more thumb issues, forcing Sano into the field and a call up for prospect Luis Arraez. Arraez has acquitted himself pretty will to the MLB level so far, sitting with a .379 average and over .900 OPS. Granted its a small sample size with less than 150 at bats under his belt, but still not too shabby.

The Sox on the other hand are having trouble putting the bat on the ball, despite the nine-run outburst Monday night against the Fish. They’ve struck out 32 times as a team in the last three games, and that’s with facing only one real quality pitcher in Caleb Smith. The starting rotation has improved, with the exception of Dylan Covey, who is unable to make it through an opposing lineup more than 1.5 times per night. This could be helped with an opener, but alas this is a bridge too far for Renteria who just wants you off his lawn. Yoan Moncada is the only player hitting consistently right now, as Abreu is scuffling and regression seems to have come for McCann. Eloy and Anderson can’t get back here fast enough to provide some protection for these guys. Lucas Giolito and Berrios go head-to-head Thursday night in a marquee pitching matchup for Guys Who Are Really Good But ESPN Doesn’t Know Who They Are. Dylan Cease gets his first stiff test of a lineup that can put any of your mistakes into orbit, so control of his fastball his going to be key. Nova is Nova, so lets just hope everybody hits for him again.

Taking the series or even splitting with Minnesota would go a long way to washing the taste of dirt out of the Sox collective mouths after the Miami series. If it’s gonna happen, Giolito is gonna have to be on his game tonight and set the tone. Lets go Sox, get me some more beers.

Baseball

Twins Spotlight: DoH

By Andy Jonathan 1826 0

I’m gonna whip (like throw, not WHIP) some stats at your dome:

.258/.342/.431  17.0 WAR

.237/.320/.421  3.8 WAR

Those are the production stats the Twins and the White Sox have gotten out of their DH position since 2010 according to Fangraphs. Care to guess which is which? I chose 2010 when I ran these stats because 2009 was the last time the Sox got positive production from the DH position, and it was Jim Thome that was providing it. The next year the Sox let him walk, and he jumped right on I-94 and went north to Minnesota. Wanna get more depressed?  Here’s the list of primary DH players for the two teams in that time span:

SOX                                                                                    

2010: Mark Kotsay .239/.306/.376

2011: Adam Dunn .159/.292/.277

2012: Adam Dunn .204/.333/.468

2013: Adam Dunn .219/.320/.422

2014: Adam Dunn .219/.337/.414

2015: Adam LaRoche .207/.293/.340

2016: Avasail Garcia .245/.307/.385

2017: Matt Davidson .220/.260/.452

2018: Matt Davidson .228/.319/.419

TWINS

2010: Jim Thome .283/.412/.627 (!!!)

2011: Jim Thome .243/.351/.476

2012: Ryan Doumit .275/.320/.461

2013: Ryan Doumit .247/.319/.396

2014: Kennys Vargas .274/.316/.476

2015: Miguel Sano .269/.385/.530

2016: Miguel Sano .236/.319/.462

2017: Robbie Grossman .246/.361/.380

2018: Robbie Grossman .273/.367/.384

Those numbers could not be any more different (and provided by BaseballReference.Com). It’s pretty damning that the Twins worst year of production at DH was still better than five of the years for the Sox. It also shows that the White Sox tried just one time to address the DH position via free agency. It failed pretty spectacularly (though Dunn made the AS game one year), and since then they’ve just plugged in random dudes and any production gotten out of that spot was just a bonus. The Twins, meanwhile, have made a concerted effort to man the position with people who will make a difference in the lineup. This season was no different, when they went out and got Nelson Cruz off the free agent market at a pretty good one-year, $14 million salary with a club option for 2020.  Cruz has rewarded the Twins with a .269/.396/.549 worth 1.7 WAR thus far in the season.  The Sox attempted to address the position in a different way, namely signing Yonder Alonso (supposed left handed power bat and noted Good Friend of Manny Machado) to a one-year deal that netted them a solid .176/.265./.290 good for a -1.9 WAR. HOORAY!

I bring this up because I was at the game against the Marlins on Tuesday night where Caleb Smith took a perfect game into the 6th inning. Smith is by far and away the Marlins best pitcher, and he also happens to be left handed. The Sox big counter to the Fish’s best pitcher was to trot out Astros castoff and winner of the “If Sami Zayn Ate Too Many Moon Pies” lookalike contest AJ Reed. Reed also happens to be left-handed, and have absolutely terrible splits against lefties. With James McCann needing a night off, Reed was really the only option (in reality, McCann should’ve gotten Wednesday night off and started at DH against Smith, but Renteria’s lineup construction is an entirely different battle altogether). However, he’s just the latest in a long line of examples of how the Sox don’t care about the position while other teams take it deathly serious.

Perhaps this is the ultimate destination for Jose Abreu or Eloy Jimenez. Abreu definitely fits the profile, but his career numbers at the DH position are worse than when he’s playing in the field. He’s also made it clear that he’d rather play 1B as opposed to DH, so I’m sure that’s something that needs to be taken in account if/when the Sox resign him this offseason. Perhaps this is where Andrew Vaughn ends up long term, but it’s going to be at least a year (probably two) before he can provide any help at the position. Maybe Jake Burger, but both his Achilles tendons were last seen passing Jupiter after they snapped off his body. The other thing to consider is if the National League decides (as they absolutely should) to get rid of pitchers hitting and adopting the DH position full time is that availability of people like Nelson Cruz is going to thin out rapidly as the market for their services doubles. At some point the Sox front office is going to have to start taking this position seriously, as their current system of “random dudes” is not sustainable for any team that has any deigns on competing long term in the AL.

I just don’t have much hope that it will ever happen.

 

 

 

Football

The Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Introducing Our Bears Wing And Training Camp Opening Roundtable

By Sam Fels 1714 0

We threatened you. We warned you. And because no one told us no, we’re going to do it. We’re bringing our madness to the Chicago Bears. Because you know they deserve it. So today, we introduce you to our troika of misfits that are going to take this on: Brian Schmitz, Wes French, and Tony Martin. LET’S KICK THIS PIG!

So with vets reporting today, what are you guys looking for in B0urbonnais, other than no one getting hurt?

Brian Schmitz: I personally cannot wait to see Robbie Gould back in a Bears jersey. Too soon?

Defensively, I want to see how how well the players transition from Vic Fangio to Chuck Pagano. The Bears are so talented on defense that a lot a alignment and assignment mistakes will be covered up by pure athleticism.  Offensively, I can’t wait to see who is the first reporter to declare what a great camp Adam Shaheen is having. I’m also excited to see if a healthy Anthony Miller will get more looks. This guy has the skills to be a #1.
Tony Martin: I’m with you on Anthony Miller. Dude is a beast, and I think if he recovers from his shoulder injury he could be a dominant wideout. 

I’m actually interested in seeing if any major names don’t make the team as the Bears start looking towards future salary cap constraints. If Danny Trevathan gets cut I’d be shocked, but if Taylor Gabriel were to be released I wouldn’t be nearly as blown away.  I’m super interested in seeing if Kerrith Whyte Jr makes the squad and how he’d be used. If some of these draft picks pan out, the Bears offense could look like a Madden playbook I created while high at 3am, with like spread formations with  four running backs and a tight end on the field.
Brian: Trey Burton is another guy who needs to have a good pre-season. The organization isn’t exactly happy with the way he ended last season and at this point, it’s more than fair to label him as unreliable and soft.
Tony: I think Burton is the most likely candidate to win “Starter from last year who is cut this year”, but that also implies Shaheen has a good preseason, which isn’t a given. 

So, does Matt Nagy take the next step and open up even more of the playbook this year? I’m all in, let’s get weird. If Akiem Hicks is running for touchdowns in year one, what sort of bananas shit can we expect to see?  Calling it now: Khalil Mack catches a touchdown this year, from someone who isn’t Mitch Trubisky. You heard it here first.
Wes French: I’ll start on defense, where I agree I’m interested to see the shift from Fangio to Pagano, but I want to see if anyone slips/steps up under the new boss. Will we see Roquan Smith become the defensive centerpiece/signal caller he was at Georgia or will that take another season or so under a new coordinator? Quan seemed pretty well ready to take over the defense late last year…Was Vic a “whisperer” to any major contributors to the defense that could fall off under the new boss? Will anyone clash with Pagano/his style? I think we’ll get that answer sooner than later with how camp starts on that side of the ball.  

Count me as the third amigo/musketeer/likely dipshit that’s beyond sold on Anthony Miller as a sure star. Get him the ball, do it often…but will there be enough touches to go around? I also agree Nagy and Co. will get weirder (in the best way) this year, and the guy I am most intrigued by is Corderelle Patterson. He lined up at RB for half his touches in Foxboro and I have to think the versatility is going to bring some funky ass sets this year. 3 RB/2TE? 2RB/3 TE? I can guarantee you that man will be in motion pre-snap basically every time he’s on the field. 
The biggest question about the myriad options with the personnel and playbook is at the center of it all: Mitch. They made the playoffs last year with their signal caller playing WILDLY inconsistent. How, and more importantly if, Mitch has progressed with a full year/offseason under Nagy’s watch is going to be the real driver of this campaign. All the fun that they draw up won’t matter if Mitch keeps sailing balls to wide open targets or missing open reads. I love me some Mitch, but this is a massive year for him and his GM that staked his reputation on Trubs tapping that potential of his.
Brian: I’m honesty glad and proud of each of you for not mentioning the placekicking situation in your early emails. Thank you for that. It’s such an overblown and ridiculous storyline that lazy ass media members continue to talk about only because it’s low hanging fruit and requires no prep work or research.

We are all in agreement that Nagy will continue to get creative in the regular season. Are we also in agreement that he will continue to shit down his leg in the playoffs and choke games away? Asking for a friend.
Tony: Yeah, the kicking game is not really much of a concern for me, it’s literally a meme at this point. Thanks a lot, Cris Collinsworth. Does the lack of a solid kicker worry me? Of course it does, but there’s plenty of time to see who does well this preseason both in Bourbonnais and in other camps and bring them in. 

I’ll also go on the record saying the one downside to having a team that people want to watch on prime time is how many times I’m gonna have to hear Collinsworth or Joe Buck call a game. I’m so used to Fox’s C-level announce team that I want Kenny Albert to do the play by play at my funeral. 
As for Nagy, I think having the ability to use more of his playbook will be a good thing. That “next step” phase that we’re all looking to from Mitch also needs to apply to play calling. Sometimes on 3rd and 3 you need to be able to feel confident in your teams ability to get those yards without having to resort to some play that looks like a deleted scene from Little Giants. I’m not that old school meatball fan who screams about running the ball up the middle the entire time, but I think the offense is good enough to not need to run a triple option to pick up a crucial first down. 
You guys have mentioned a few guys on offense you’re watching closely, and you’ve mentioned Pagano as well. Is there a player on defense you’ll be watching closely, either for a breakout season indications or possibly be a surprise demotion or cut?
Brian: The Bears thought enough of John Franklin III to bring him back again this year. This guy is arguably the most athletic player on the roster and is trying to make the transition from a lifelong quarterback to a DB – to make this position change at the NFL level, you have to be special, and I believe the organization thinks he is. Depending how impressive he is in camp, he could, at the very least provide some insurance for the old and oft-injured Prince Amukamara; and at best, be a value replacement for the 30-year-old who, while having a solid season in 2018, has been on the downside of his career for a while now.
Wes: Whoa, hey, I wanted to get in on the kicker talk since it’s all anyone seemed to care about in the Spring! Not really, I think it’s pretty embarrassing that the mini camp was basically devoted to coming up with wild scenarios for guys to kick meaningless FGs in. They’ll have some rookie or camp cut rookie/vet and that’ll be that. I won’t be shocked if they burn through a couple kickers by seasons end. I can’t help but notice no one has mentioned the new backfield savior, David Montgomery, either. Maybe we’re already tired of hearing about how great his character is and what a steal he’s set to be. To me this screams of future disappointment, but I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

I’m watching the defensive backfield closer than other position groups at camp. Pagano made his money coaching up the Ravens secondary through their years of dominance and I’m interested to see how everything settles with the DBs. That’s the only group that sees new faces in starting roles, so the easy answer is will Buster Skrine/Ha Ha Clinton-Dix come in and keep the status quo or better, or will we see some troubles early on replacing the stud nickel Bryce Callahan and the under appreciated Adrian Amos? The Skrine signing was met with some raised eyebrows and Ha Ha is already on the PUP so we’re off to a very Chicago sports start on that front. 
An individual I’m keying on is probably in direct competition with your boy J Franks the 3rd – Stephen Denmark. If you’re not familiar with the 2019 7th Rd pick, he’s got a pretty winding path to the DB group as well. Denmark is quite new to the defensive backfield, having lined up only one season there at Valdosta St. after playing wide out his whole career prior, with a lot to be desired. You won’t find many 6’3″ Corners around the league, and there’s no guarantee that Denmark sticks there, but he’s got the bloodline (father, three brothers all played some level of D1 college or pros) and the athleticism to make a stand out impression, be it at corner or safety. I’d guess the Bears try to stash him on the practice squad and develop him for the year, but if he shows the kind of promise discussed out of the draft the vultures could circle to pluck him off the squad. 
I’m going to add a player on offense here as well because I’m five hours behind on vacation and feel a bit left out, and there’s nothing you can do about it, Fels (besides edit it out and make this all just wasted time). Riley Ridley seemed like a guy that should not have been around in the late 4th Rd, but there he was and the Bears made him a luxury pick given what they’ve spent on the WR position in the last two seasons. I believe he’s well worth it, though, as an elite route runner dropped into a system predicated on receivers being in the right spot, every time. Someone up there mentioned Taylor Gabriel as a possible shocking, albeit mildly, cut. Thanks to our friends at Over The Cap you’ll see that cutting Gabriel now would have zero cap savings and $6.5M in dead money, but say another team thin at the position or sees a string of camp injuries at wideout and a trade for a future pick materializes. Trading Gabriel is much more palatable with a little under $2M in dead money against almost $6M in cap savings. If the WR room gets crowded this Fall because Ridley, Miller and any one of the many WR fighting for special teams reps force the issue, I’d look for Gabriel to get dealt on the cheap before anyone gets outright cut. 
Tony: I could see Gabriel as trade bait, for sure. In terms of next steps being taken, Bilal Nichols is going to be a beast this year. I don’t see Jonathan Bullard breaking out, but I think this year finds Nichols and Roy Robertson-Harris stepping up in a big way. 

The David Montgomery hype is getting to me, tbh. Let’s see this man suit up and play before he’s anointed the next great Bears RB, ya know? He has to learn the offense, and his scouting report via PFF lists his receiving ability as a weakness, something that might limit his snap count. 
At the end of the day, I’m interested in what sort of formation/personnel wrinkles we’ll see in the new defense. Is Pagano going to consistently use his front 3/4 to generate pressure, or is he going to utilize the greatest buzzword in all of football: “exotic blitzes”. Is Eddie Jackson going to be asked to continue to roam the middle of the field and read the QB, or will he have less freedom in this new system? There’s no doubt that Bryce Callahan is a beast at nickel corner in a Vic Fangio defense, can we even be sure Chuck Pagano will ask Buster Skrine to do something similar? The fit between scheme and player was ideal last year, and I’m hoping this year is more of the same. I think Ha Ha will play well and earn that multi year deal somewhere else next year.