A’s
White Sox
It was bound to happen sooner or later, but in the doldrums of hockey’s summer off season it was time for a White Sox roundtable featuring Fifth Feather, Hess, newcomer AJ, and myself as moderated by Sam. Download it (without a subscription) or we’ll move the podcast to Sarasota.
Bad football rules because you know that it’s only a matter of time before the games start to count and I gotta say I was super geeked to watch the Bears play again. I’d say that the game tonight went about as well as the first preseason game could be expected to go, especially in the modern age when keeping starters out is the standard. Was it boring? Yeah. But it was a PRODUCTIVE boring. So, since the clock has just struck zero on 60 minutes of Bears football, I have some quick reactions I’d like to share even though I’m three White Claws deep and have to get up for work in 7 hours.
-Deon Bush was all over the field, which was more impressive than the interception he was gifted via an awful throw. If a starter gets hurt, he is a player easily above replacement level and could fill in nicely (and has in the past). I can see the Bears having a tough time deciding if they want to extend him for next year.
-Please keep David Montgomery off special teams FOR THE LOVE OF GOD. He looked so good, and the more time he gets in this offense, the better he’ll get. He and Cohen are gonna be sick together. I want Matt Nagy to unironically use those two and Patterson in a T-Formation. Can a play call be ironic? Whatever.
-Josh Woods flashed a lot in run support (and forced a fumble), but got sucked inside twice on two big runs. I’d like to see more of him this preseason and maybe he can challenge for a backup ILB spot this year.
-I love the pass interference challenge rule, but only because the one thing I want more of when watching preseason football is insurance commercials. I wrote this joke sober and I was lukewarm on it, but it’s preseason for Bears writers just like the players so I’m keeping it in and I’ll look at the tape tomorrow and make adjustments.
-Javon Wims popped off the screen again. I think this dude is legit, and will make the team. I think he’ll be used like Nagy used Demarcus Robinson in Kansas City. I can see him catching 20 passes for this team and scoring a couple times.
-Speaking of that Wide Receiver room: Marvin Hall is FAST, and yes, these are the kinds of takes I get paid the big bucks to formulate. I’m pumped to see what he can do with the first team punt return unit, if he makes the squad (I hope he does). Unfortunately, I think Taquan Mizzell Sr is the odd man out, which is a shame. Unless Kerrith Whyte really screws up or the Bears decide to keep 4 Running Backs on the 53, he won’t make it. Hopefully he catches on somewhere else because I like Smoke a lot and I think he can contribute to a roster somewhere.
vs. 
RECORDS: Cubs 62-52 Reds 54-58
GAMETIMES: Thursday-Saturday 6:10, Sunday 12:10
TV: NBCSN Thursday, Friday, Sunday, WGN Saturday
SCHOTZIE’S LEAVINGS: Blog Red Machine
PREVIEW POSTS
Depth Charts & Pitching Staffs
Once again, the Cubs will try to take momentum gained from a standout homestand onto a 10-game road trip that could see them, if not put the division to bed, give themselves a healthy cushion. The last time they tried this they stained the floors of each destination to the tune of a 3-6 cough-up. This one sets up even easier as the Reds are still below .500, the Phillies can be anything on a given day, and the Pirates have straight up given up. But with the way things have gone for the Cubs on the road, there simply can’t be any sure things.
One change for the Cubs is that Jonathan Lucroy will meet them in Cincinnati, though as of now Taylor Davis is still listed as the backup. That will change in the next day or two, as the Cubs have seen quite enough of that. Lucroy can’t hit anymore, and his brain might be broken, but he is only a season removed from being a pretty good handler back there, and that itself would be an improvement on Davis. He doesn’t rate highly this year, but maybe the significantly better pitching of the Cubs than the Angels can square that around. Again, he’s not going to hit much, and he hasn’t in three seasons, but he might actually get a hit and the Cubs got Taylor Davis’s annual one in that game against the Cardinals in May.
Everything else stays the same. Cole Hamels should have the training wheels taken off in his second start off the DL. Jon Lester will try to come back down from the stratosphere where the A’s put him on Tuesday.
To the Reds, who remade their team a bit at the trade deadline. Gone is Yasiel Puig from the major league roster, and in his King Galaxy Brain Trevor Bauer, whom the Cubs will see Friday. Bauer is certainly a massive upgrade from Tanner Roark, including the headache department. He’s walking more guys than he has in four seasons, and has had home run problems (who hasn’t?) which won’t be helped by the move south in Ohio. The Cubs will also see Alex Wood for the first time, making his four start spurt before he goes back onto the IL with some sort of arm trouble, given that his left one is made of paper mache at this point. The Cubs have had their issues with him in the past, as he carries a lifetime 2.86 ERA against them.
While the Cubs have had no problem making this offense look like something out of a comic book all season, it’s only lately they’ve done that to other teams. They put up 15 runs in two wins over the Angels earlier in the week. Over the past month everyone in the lineup aside from Votto and Peraza (and Votto has been awful in that span) have put up a 100 wRC+ or better, with Suarez and Ervin particularly molten. The latter of which you already knew about because he murdered the Cubs last trip in there and threw the body into the river rolled up in a rug.
The strength of the Reds, if it’s not the rotation, remains the pen, with Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and his Farnsworth-pants, and Robert Stephenson currently on great runs. The Cubs haven’t been totally ruined when they’ve had to do work against this pen, but it’s not the optimal path when dealing with this crew.
The Cardinals will have the Pirates at home and the Brewers will be entertaining the Rangers in Milwaukee, so if the Cubs want to hold onto this lead it’s likely not going to be handed to them. The Reds have been cumbersome and a nuisance all goddamn season. If the Cubs have turned any corner, finally getting one over on this side would be prime evidence of that.
At least the Reds weren’t boring at the trade deadline.
For a while we and others wondered what they would do about their Scooter Gennett and Derek Dietrich axis of confusion at second base. The answer was apparently to let one play like he was still hurt (Gennett) and the other to get hurt (Dietrich). So out went Gennett to the Giants, who always seem to be in the market for an underwhelming bat.
That wasn’t the headline though, and you’re not going to believe it wasn’t sending Tanner Roark to the A’s either. I know, right? This is Tanner Roark, people! The Reds gave up Yasiel Puig, Scott Moss, and much-touted prospect Tyler Trammell in a trade-a-trois to land themselves Trevor Bauer.
On the surface you get it. Puig was a free agent-to-be and unlikely to re-sign in Cincy, so cash in what you can during a season that isn’t going to go anywhere. Getting Bauer back gives the Reds a bonafide #2 starter to slot in between Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, even if everyone else in the clubhouse is going to want to throw Bauer through several walls before the end of the season. A front three in the rotation of Castillo-Bauer-Gray is pretty formidable, and can certainly be the basis for wildcard contention. It would appear that the Reds are gearing up for next year.
But are they? Bauer is only signed for one more season, so it certainly looks like the Reds want to run with the big dogs in 2020. And the pen should still have Raisel Iglesias and others to repeat being the weapon it’s been this year. But you can never really tell with bullpens, can you?
The biggest question is what the Reds are going to do, or are positioned to do, with the lineup to pair with that rotation. Because it’s hard to see what’s on the up-slope offensively for the Reds. It certainly isn’t Joey Votto. Eugenio Suarez is a fine player but not someone you’re building around, and with him having an off-year this season at 29 you wonder if this is the start of something smelly or just a blip. Certainly the hope is that Nick Senzel is that player. They would like to hope that Phillip Ervin might be, but he’s 27 already. Will be 28 next year. And he’s not even starting regularly. There’s probably still hope for Jesse Winker, who is only 25. But that’s two guys definitely yet to reach their prime, one who is definitely past it, and a bunch of questions marks.
On top of that, Trammell was their only prime prospect ready to step in next year and be something. And even next year would be a stretch, as he’s been ok in AA this year. The Padres don’t really care, they have two years to play with. The Reds? Maybe not.
They certainly have plenty of money to spend, should they choose. They have only $60M tied up next year, plus whatever Bauer gets in arbitration. But when do you remember the Reds being the settling place for a big free agent? They will clearly have needs in right, second, maybe short (though you can get away with Jose Iglesias‘s glove if you have offense everywhere else), maybe catcher. Sadly for the Reds, the free agent crop is pretty weak in the winter.
Are they destined to repeat this year, with a pretty good staff and an offense that just isn’t enough? It seems that way, unless they flip Bauer for something else in the offseason. But his value would be lower than it was at the deadline with only one year of control left. They could probably stand to get younger. Could they turn Suarez into something? Would that just be running in place?
It seems the Reds have paced their pitching faster or above their lineup, and it might keep them in the mud. Bauer could be gone in 2021, Gray to follow the year after so he could be trade bait by then, and Votto will only be older. No prospect they have looks to be making an impact before 2022. Those things can always change though, and maybe that’s what the Reds are hoping.
It’s an odd mix…which is generally considered a delicacy in Cincinnati.
vs 
Records: 0-0 all around
Game Time: 7:00 pm CT
TV: Fox 32
Radio: WBBM 780 AM/105.9 FM
NFL Network re-air Saturday 8/10 10:00 am, Monday 8/12 3:00 am, Wednesday 8/14 noon
(Because we’re all gonna need this three more times, yessir)
YOU KNOW YOU GOT IT WHEN YOU’RE GOIN’ INSANE: CatScratchFever
The time is finally upon us to kickoff the 2019 NFL (pre)season, and boy are people eager to see who gets to kick it off for the Bears. I sincerely hope the Panthers have something more to offer than the Cat Scratch Fever, because both the real disease and the Ted Nugent song are incredibly fucked. Those two sentences right there are probably about as interesting as things will get for fans on Thursday night, but they have to play these games. Can’t just have grown men walking off the practice field and smashing into each other without a few meaningless quarters of football in the books.
The Panthers wasted no time in announcing way back on Tuesday that Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly will both miss tonight’s game. It’s strictly precautionary, and frankly very wise, to sit the duo as Cam is coming off a shortened season that ended in shoulder surgery and Luke doesn’t need to start collecting concussions before the games matter.
Kyle Allen will get the start, but expect a heavy dose of rookie third rounder Will Grier under center for Carolina in this one. Grier had a pretty interesting career at West Virginia and will look to build his pro resume and win the lead backup role to Newton this preseason. Christian McCaffrey will likely get a series and then sit around shooting the shit with rookie RB Jordan Scarlett, who will miss the game with back soreness. If you’re searching for Panthers beyond that to watch, uhh….rookie first round EDGE Brian Burns out of FSU is likely to make life harder for Chase Daniel? Sure.
Da Bears haven’t yet announced any certain inactives of real note, though the tight end position will be one to watch. Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen are dealing with minor/nagging injuries, and the two TEs that have the most to gain (or lose) are probably undrafted FA Ian Bunting and converted OL Bradley Sowell. Both are more of the blocking TE variety, but given the injury histories of Burton and Shaheen and the need at the position in this offense, opportunity is there for Bunting and the 40 lbs. lighter Sowell to make an impact and last at least another week in camp.
Eyes will also be on the offensive and defensive backfields, with rookie running backs David Montgomery and Kerrith Whyte Jr set to make their Bears debuts. Montgomery comes with high expectations, but White should see more opportunity to show what he can do at full speed and where or if he’ll fit on this team. On the other side of the ball, it’ll be interesting to see who gets early reps at nickel corner between new signee Buster Skrine and veteran Sherrick McManis as they battle for a starting spot. Coaches will likely give plenty of snaps to Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carter at Safety and Duke Shelley, Stephen Denmark, John Franklin III and Kevin Tolliver as they sort out a new stable of DB depth.
The outcome of this game will be entirely meaningless, but get ready for a lot of coach speak in postgame pressers about individual battles and situations. The Bears kicking competition is another spotlight, as I’d expect Elliott Fry and Eddie Piniero to split the work throughout the night. If either of them has a particularly poor showing you can expect to see new competition at kicker as early as Friday afternoon.
A whole goddamn preview and no mention of our main man Mitchell Trubisky or Matt Nagy? Go read about them here is that’s what you’re after.
Happy football, everyone.
Maybe it took me a week to really come to terms with this breakdown of Paul Fenton’s firing in Minnesota. Maybe I needed a week to remember why I should care about the Minnesota Wild (and I still don’t). Maybe it was just the time of year and things are moving more slowly. But if you haven’t read Michael Russo’s article here, you really should. Just not for the hilarity or schadenfreude of it–and there’s plenty–but then come to realize that it’s probably hardly unique in the NHL.
I can’t decide what my favorite part was. The immediate dismissal of a pretty impressive analytics team that’s so NHL it seems too scripted to work. The never actually scouting Viktor Rask before trading one of your best players for him. The being at the Pats Super Bowl parade mere weeks before the trade deadline while the Wild were self-immolating. The constant fear of leaks. The fascination with players who suck, and have clearly proven they suck.
And it’s easy to point and laugh…but can’t you see some elements happening here? Especially the fascination with certain players, i.e. ones that have played for them before. While I don’t think the Hawks just skip the due diligence part of players they trade for…Kimmo Timonen would like a word. Yeah, that was a long time ago, and recent trades like Caggiula have worked out ok (though they seem to have soured on Perlini pretty quickly, but he was the throw-in in that deal). Still, their fascination with players they already know has a very familiar ring to it.
Also you could probably make a link to the dismissal of analytics here as well, as there’s simply no way the Hawks have paid any attention to it, otherwise you wouldn’t be trading for Olli Maatta.
What’s kind of amazing is how bad Fenton was allowed to be at his job. Can you imagine some of this going on in any other sport? I mean, maybe with the Pirates or Knicks or Raiders or something, but those are known basketcase organizations. The Wild aren’t supposed to be that. They’re not the model franchise or anything–even though they loved to tell people that–but they haven’t been moronic. They just haven’t been all that noticeable. This is noticeable.
And this was hardly Fenton’s first job, and you can easily see where he’ll get another because this is the NHL. No one ever dies in the NHL, they’re just moved to a different office…or wherever Bob Pulford is now.
I suppose the question I have to ask is where was any of this when it was actually going on? I know the answer is that people are way more willing to talk when the dude has already been canned and there’s no fear of repercussions, but surely someone or someones knew about some of this while it was happening. Wouldn’t an outing and reporting of it had a chance of stopping the idiocy to come?
The protection of information is hardly germane to the Wild and Fenton. We see it with every team in hockey, and increasingly sports. These days, when teams have their own bullhorns–website, twitter, instagram, facebook, all with their own staff and writers–there’s little need to get anything to the press unwillingly. You can spin anything how you want before anyone even knows it’s a thing. Still, you have to feel that Fenton’s trip to the Pats’ parade from his job in St. Paul is something that should have been a big deal at the moment. What happened there?
You can’t help but think of the dysfunction in the Hawks’ front office, and yet we’ve had to (get ready Fifth Feather) read tea leaves to even suss that out. It was clear that Q and Stan Bowman couldn’t get along at the end, and were only getting along before because the team in place was winning. But we had to put it all together. Somehow, they were able to keep that all in house, and only after Stan basically admitted to spiking Q with Brandon Manning did we get official confirmation of how deep the dysfunction went. Five or ten years from now, the tell-all book is going to be comedy on a Python-esque level.
We know that the consolidation and shrinking of media is bad in a lot more important areas than sports. We know that everyone having an Insta or Twitter means players or anyone else can talk directly to fans with whatever message they want (that sometimes ends up way worse). We know teams have gotten better and better about keeping everything under wraps, even with all the avenues we have now.
I guess that’s how some of this patently ridiculous shit can go on with a team like the Wild even over as short of a span as a year. But I can’t imagine this level of mismanagement is unique to St. Paul. And you wonder how goons keep getting jobs…
The Bears are through a week and a half of practices and we’ve learned that the defense is still incredible, the beat writers LOVE the kicking competition and no one knows if anything has improved in the play of Mitchell Trubisky.
Mitch and his development sort of flew under the radar this Summer when Cody Parkey‘s GMA appearance and the sideshow kicking competition dominated most of the offseason headlines. Training camp brought our boy Trubs back into the spotlight and all the reports have been more or less the same we’ve seen the last two years, with every great play there is an equal and opposite awful one. Inconsistency is Trubs game.
But he’s practicing against the league’s best defense! Pfft. This is supposed to be the year he takes “the step” forward and develops into the “First Division QB” that takes Chicago from mediocrity to contender for a decade.
So, is that what they’ll get?
Mitch, through no real fault of his own, is a polarizing figure destined to be measured against the two men Ryan Pace chose to pass up. The 2017 QBs taken after Trubs are routinely discussed as better than him; one (Patrick Mahomes) is an MVP already and looks like he’ll be better than most at the position for a decade, while the other (Deshaun Watson) shows brilliant flashes but has already undergone major knee surgery. You can spend literally hours talking about the merits of all three, and it will never goddamned matter. Please don’t do this. They can’t go back and draft Mahomes. Embrace that fact. Mitch is what they’ve got, and what they do to maximize what they’ve got is all that matters.
Now, how to maximize whatever Mitch is. His organization didn’t do him any favors at the start.
Mitch was essentially thrown into a garbage system coached by John Fox and a staff that knew they were all DOA once Pace took over, but were allowed to weekend-at-Bernie’s the 2017 campaign as the McCaskey’s weren’t about to pay another coach to not work for them. Mike Glennon (WOOF) was only able to help drag Fox’s body around for four weeks before the job was heaped on our young Jonathan Silverman. No Andrew McCarthy around to help carry the weight, Mitch just chucked shit up and hoped *checks notes* Dontrelle Inman or any TE/RB might catch something. Seriously, the top ten list of 2017 Bears reception leaders reads like an Iowa fan’s wet dream with FOUR tight ends. No, none of them were over 20 catches. Man, 2017 sucked.
So you have a young Quarterback that started a single year in college, thrust into a system no one cared about with sub-par players no one intended to keep around. This is a failure. Pace seemingly gets a pass for this, as in it’s never discussed, but this was a major misstep and really didn’t even begin true development for Mitch. Off to a great start.
Year two Trubisky was more fun to watch in Matt Nagy’s system but that lack of coaching in year one shown more often than anyone, I’m sure Mitch included, would like to see. He can’t help but constantly heave the ball off his back foot, but his post-snap reads are where you really see the need for improvement and reps in the offense. Mitch also tends to lean on his mobility, for better or worse. He’ll make an escape and hit a receiver or scramble for big yardage; the next play, he bails on the pocket and attempts a throw across his body that becomes an interceptable ball while he’s locked in on one target the whole time.
2018 Trubisky teased some gorgeous throws while missing wide open targets with regularity. He ranked 30th of 35 qualified QBs for depth-adjusted accuracy(sub required, and recommended. It’s $12, cheapass). Mitch was a fairly high 93% accurate on short (line of scrimmage or behind) throws, but on anything beyond that his accuracy starts declining. Sharply. (Per Pre-Snap Reads data):
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1-10 yards – 77.6% (24th/86.5%-1st)
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11-20 yards – 54.3% (27th/69.9*nice*-1st)
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20+ yards – 38.1% (21st/61.5%-1st)
For every pretty ball dropped in-stride to Tarik Cohen on a wheel route down the sideline there were three terrible overthrows of Taylor Gabriel on a corner post or Anthony Miller on a blown coverage in the seam that arguably result in touchdowns. Those throws have to be made. It’s what good QBs do.
From Cian Fahey’s offseason review of Mitch, “He’s a very different type of player to prime Joe Flacco, but that would be the caliber of quarterback you’re working with.”
Exciting! Flacco won a Super Bowl…He also makes a living on gaining large swaths of yardage via P.I. Not ideal.
A late season injury only blurred the lines further on where exactly Mitch is developmentally. The offense appeared almost scaled back for baby boy upon return, but the problem areas remained the same. The issues don’t seem to be about understanding the plays, but the decision making and execution of what Nagy and Co. tee up. The Playoff loss was a microcosm of his season – a perfectly timed and thrown ball into a small window to Robinson helped to set up the double-doink sadness, but only AFTER a terrible read that should’ve been intercepted a handful of plays earlier.
How Nagy works now to change Trubisky’s bad habits will define this era of Bears football. Improving accuracy and reads are mandatory, with defensive regression and kicking headaches guaranteed in 2019. It’ll also go a long way in telling if 2018 was improvement over 2017, or just a system with much better players propping Mitch up and dragging him around with them.
The good plays are great. The misses are egregious. That is what Mitch is right now – inconsistent, and the spectrum is VAST. So-so Mitch got them to Wild Card Weekend. Consistent Mitch makes the Bears a real problem for the NFC.
Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, A’s 5
Game 2 Box Score: A’s 11, Cubs 4
Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 10, A’s 1
I know what you’re thinking. If you’ve been around these parts for any length of time, you’re probably either ready to label me with or for me to project that I’ve motherfucked the Cubs into brilliance with my declaration that they weren’t going anywhere after that beer fart in St. Louis. And it’s close, but the Cubs have to take it on the road before we can officially declare that. We know they’re good at home. They were brilliant this time around, going 5-1 against a division competitor and a playoff contender from the American League. They could have their biggest lead in the division all season when it’s all said and done. Now if they could actually get things moving on this 10-game road trip, with nary an impressive opponent on it, we might be on to something.
Let’s…
-I guess I’ll start with Ian Happ. I’ve never been a huge believer in Colonel Happ, but he always seduces you with that swing and his discipline. At this point, the Cubs don’t have much to lose by playing him at second most. We know Kemp and Bote just aren’t going to hit, and you can mitigate some of Happ’s defense with shifting. Five hits in the series, and even more hard contact. Even when Happ was struggling he still worked an AB, and the Cubs need more of that. If it works over the next month then you don’t have to hinge anything on Ben Zobrist, which we probably shouldn’t be anyway.
-Monday was an adventure, but with this state of the pen I don’t know what else it’s going to be. The Cubs are going to need the rotation to pick it up for a week or two, even more than they have, and get to the 7th inning consistently. From there you can just throw the masses out to get six to eight outs, as messy as it’s going to be.
-Speaking of which, Duane Underwood is going to get himself a couple more looks before Kimbrel comes back. He’s the only one with options so he probably has to go down when that happens. It was a great debut, but some salt grains required. He’s been good as a reliever in Iowa, and he’s another guy who at least throws hard, which the Cubs haven’t had enough of. That doesn’t mean he should be in high-leverage situations tomorrow, but again, what do the Cubs have to lose here? I don’t need more David Phelps in my life, and anything that gets Cishek rest at this point should be welcome.
-As for Jon Lester, there’s not much reason to panic as long as the other four starters keep doing this. As we’ve said, his margin for error is so thin, and now it’s a wonder if he can get inside on righties at all. But as a fifth starter, fine. We’ll deep dive on this at a later date.
-Castellanos is a danger to himself in the field, but he seems to do everything right with a helmet on. And there is something he’s brought to the club with his energy and bounce, which is very welcome in August.
-Anyone bitching about Quintana now?
-Is this Hendricks’s best stretch in his career? Seven starts, 10 earned runs, 37 Ks, 11 walks. He’s almost automatic right now.
-I’ll say I was there the night the Cubs had three catchers on the field, and none of them were Willson Contreras.
Onwards…
