Hockey

Normally, I make a pretty awkward, and sometimes even grotesque, face when a player is moved from center to wing or vice versa. Perhaps it’s the PQSD (Post Quenneville Stress Disorder) and the memories of Patrick Kane or Andrew Shaw at center and the counter of Patrick Sharp or Teuvo Teravainen not. When you’ve been around this long, the ghosts and memories are never far from the surface due to sheer volume.

To draw any conclusions about the Hawks lineup after four games, or Kirby Dach’s ascension after just two in the AHL, is obviously silly. There could be injuries or drastic changes to how players are playing, and that’s just in the next 10 games, much less over the next couple months. But hey, the obviously silly is what we specialize in.

Still, what’s obvious is the Hawks want to give Dach a run out at the top level, and they would actually prefer it if he proved to deserve to stick. Hence, it would behoove them to give him the best chance to succeed in however many games it’s going to take to prove that he belongs or he doesn’t. Obviously, skating him on the fourth line between say Ryan Carpenter and Zack Smith really isn’t going to do much for anyone. Then again, this is the Hawks and that’s exactly what might happen so they can turn their palms out and say, “Well, it’s clear he’s just not ready to be in the NHL with a couple of fourth-line stiffs that don’t suit his game in the least.”

The problem is where to fit him in the top nine isn’t so obvious.

Most of that is due to the opening play of the Brandon Saad-David Kampf-Domink Kubalik line. Again, four games, but from opening returns the Hawks might have their own version of the 3M Line in Calgary. A hybrid checking line that can also dominate possession and generate offense from a spot you wouldn’t normally count on it. It would take some convincing to break that line up in the next few games, when Dach’s conditioning stint would be over.

There is an argument for sticking Dach between Saad and Kubalik. Both those wingers are defensively responsible and fast. Both can be one-man breakouts to help get Dach out of the zone. Both have offensive instincts to get to the open spots and open up space for Dach (at least Kubalik has flashed that). Saad’s habit of holding onto the puck for long stretches might not mesh well with Dach. But Dach might also be better off the puck than advertised, at least offensively.

The issue there is that you could no longer use that line as a checking line. You want Kampf doing that, and while I wouldn’t give up on the idea that Kampf with Carpenter and Caggiula/Perlini/Smith could perform much of the same defensive duties from the fourth line as the third line is now. You just wouldn’t get any offense. And maybe you don’t need it.

But say Jeremy Colliton doesn’t want to break up his third line just yet, as they’re quickly turning into something of a binky. Fair enough. Except there’s not really another center spot to put Dach. You’re not moving Strome or Toews to a wing, though at times last year the former was so. We’re beyond that now.

I’ve floated the idea, one that Colliton almost assuredly does not have the stones to try, that Toews could slot down between Saad and Kubalik, and attempt to replicate what that line is doing with Kampf in the middle. Whether Toews is up for the checking duties at this point in his career is a debate we’ve been having for a couple years. And even if he is, can he still provide some scoring juice? Might be worth a look, but we have no idea.

That would leave Dach open to play with Kane or DeBrincat or both, or one of them to slot down with Strome and then make up the other winger through some combo of Shaw and Cagiulla and maybe Nylander or Perlini or whatever else you want to throw to the wall. It would also give you two lines you can start in the defensive zone to give you the flexibility to have two lines who need some hammock shifts, which Dach is almost certainly going to need. But again, I don’t think Colliton has the tires to tell Toews he’s on a third line and if he does I definitely want video of that conversation.

So if that’s not a possibility, what’s left? It would seem an apprenticeship on the wing is all there is. Dach didn’t play wing in junior, so you might actually be stunting his growth by asking him to do it. If he does have it in his locker, then he can be something of a playmaker on a line with Toews and whoever else that it lacks when Toews isn’t playing with Kane. Or he can finish off whatever Daydream Nation create. Or both. It’s not a perfect fit, but it might be the only option.

I have a feeling the Hawks might try all of these for a period over five games with Dach, without ever settling on one. What we can be sure is that the Icehogs have a double-date with the Wolves this weekend, and you can be sure almost all the brass will be in attendance for both to see where Dach is (wouldn’t hurt for Boqvist to light it up either).

The Hawks have a mismatched roster at forward at the moment, and Dach’s presence might not clear it up. It would take some imagination, but it feels like the answer is there.

 

Baseball

We continue on our adventure through the White Sox’ exclusive group of players that will actually matter in the future, this time bringing us to Eloy Jimenez and his beautiful smile. Let’s just get to it because I am excited.

2019 Stats

.267/.315/.513

Vs LHP .259 Vs RHP .270

6.0 BB% 26.6 K%

31 HR 79 RBI 69 R

.343 wOBA 117 wRC+ 1.9 fWAR

Defensive Runs Saved -11 UZR -5.1

Tell Me A Story: The White Sox played hardball with Eloy Jimenez and the service time game in 2018, leaving him in AAA even after it was obvious in May of that year, when he was in AA, that he was MLB ready. The Sox even went far enough to burn an option year (not that they will be important) by sending him down to AAA camp a few weeks before opening day. That remains a curious move to me, because they were obviously negotiating a contract extension with him at the time, so it was unnecessary. Even if he hadn’t signed that deal, they could’ve sent him down at the last second. The option won’t matter, but it was still weird.

Regardless, Eloy signed and was in the opening day lineup, deservedly. He spent most of the early season hitting in the 5-spot, and kinda bounced around between there and the 6-spot most of the season. Near the end of the year, as he really came on (more on that in a moment), he started to hit cleanup more consistently, but he only even hit higher than that twice in his 122 games, hitting second once in late May and third once in early September. He also hit seventh a handful of times, but we will pretend that didn’t happen because realistically it never will again.

Moving toward the actual on-field performance, let’s start with the bad. That’s because there isn’t much so we can get through it quickly. The defense needs work. We knew it would be an issue, but we didn’t necessarily know it would be as big of an issue as it turned out to be. There were some slight improvements if you squint hard enough, but not enough to overshadow the fact that he injured himself on an ugly defensive play – TWICE. Reports indicate he works hard with the coaching staff to improve his defense, but this may always be an issue. Still, it’s far too early to give up on Eloy as a fielder, because you’re gonna need him to be able to play out there. It’s far too soon to seriously consider a full-time shift to DH. He’s only 22, after all.

Eloy got off to a slow start, and that could be putting it quite generously. Through May, he was hitting .220/.273/.390 with a wRC+ of 75, while striking out 29.5% of the time. He also had just 6 homers in that time. I didn’t go dig up the numbers, but I remember that in those first two months pitchers were taking advantage of his aggressiveness and just eating him alive with hard sliders low and away that he just couldn’t lay off. Eloy was far too good of a hitter to ever be challenged by minor league pitching, so seeing that happen early on was slightly surprising, though not necessarily discouraging. The talent and power were still there, he just couldn’t force pitchers to throw him fastballs yet.

After those first two months, things looked up for Eloy. From June 1 to July 31, he slashed .244/.313/.527 for a 117 wRC+. The K-rate was still in excess of 27% but he was walking more and hitting the ball a lot harder, improving his hard-hit percentage from ~26% through May to 40.1% in June and July. He also hit 11 of his 31 dingers in those months.

August and September were where he really shined, though. Truthfully, the real Eloy Jimenez stood up in the final third of the season, and he smashed his way to a .308/.342/.575 line with a wRC+ of 140. His hard-hit rate climbed to a mean 42.1%, and he had an identical medium-hit rate, meaning he was making paltry contact less than a fifth of the time, a huge improvement from the early aughts where it was more than a quarter of the time. And it showed up in the stat line, as he smashed 14 of big flies in these months, which is damn near half.

In total, after the first two months of the season, Eloy hit .284/.331/.557 with a wRC+ of 131. That is, as they say very fucking good, and pretty much in line with what a lot of people expected from him. When we did our season preview roundtable for the Sox, I said I was expecting a .270 season with 30+ dingers, and I was pretty much spot on. All in all, Eloy showed every bit the promise we were dreaming his bat could have.

And oh yeah, he did this at Wrigley.

Contract: Signed through 2024 on a 6-year, $43-million contract that includes team options for 2025 and 2026. Those options reportedly push the total value of the deal close to $80-million.

Welcome Back or Boot In The Ass: Another easy keeper here. Eloy should be hitting third or fourth in this lineup on opening day for the next seven years at least, and hopefully more. Rick Hahn mentioned right field as a need area this offseason, and the Sox have been heavily linked to J.D. Martinez rumors so far (make of that what you will), so it’s safe to say they don’t view his defense as a problem and are writing him into the roster as the starting left fielder as well.

Football

With the first trimester of the season in the rearview, let’s take a look at where the Bears offense if through the first five games. Caution, reader discretion is advised.

Yards Per Game:              Ranked 30th (266 YPG)

This stat is especially alarming because the Bears offense has actually been more effective with their backup quarterback under center. Additionally, the dominating nature of the Bears defense give this offense more time on the field to put up yards – or in the Bears case, not put up yards.

Points Per Game:            Ranked 28th (17.4 PPG)

This is a stat that has plummeted since about the middle of the 2018 season. Three major factors contribute to this: bad quarterback play, bad o-line play, and an offensive playbook that that seems like it has been figured out. It is a chicken or egg scenario: is the system bad because of the players? Or are the players bad because of the system? I don’t know, and I don’t care. I just want it figured out.

Yards Per Play:                  Ranked 30th (4.5 YPP)

This number is easily explainable and falls squarely on the lack of a running game. Consistently being in a 2nd and long position very much limits your playbook. RPO and zone running plays are just not working and I anticipate a change in aspects of this coming out of the bye week.

1st Downs Per Game       Ranked 27th (17.4 1DPG)

What we can deduct from this stat is that Bears are really not a threat on plays 10 yards or longer. A 10-yard play gets you a second set of downs, which in turn, keeps opposing defenses on the field longer, thus equaling a high level of fatigue. When you are averaging only 17 1st downs per game, you are facing a fresh defense on about ½ of your possessions.

3rd Down Percentage     Ranked 23rd (35%)

As we all know, Mitch Trubisky is not an overly accurate passer. So anytime you are facing a 3rd and medium/long, you are looking at routes that are not in Mitch’s 5-yard comfort zone. Add to this a porous line, and you can clearly see why the team struggles to convert 3rd downs.

Penalties                             Ranked 7th Highest (43 Penalties)

Like all coaches, Matt Nagy talks about discipline ad nauseam. And while 43 Penalties are a big number, this is more of an NFL officiating issue than it is a Bears issue. However, don’t take for granted that the Bears O-Line is among the most penalized units in the league. This reasoning behind this is simple: when you are not very good, you get beat, which then makes linemen hold. False starts and delay of games have been minimal, so this is more of talent issue with the linemen than it is an overall team discipline issue.

When looking at these numbers as a whole, the Bears are dreadfully comparable to the Dolphins, Redskins, Jets, and Bengals – four teams that share a combined two wins. And before you speak about the strength of the respective defenses the Bears have faced so far this year, please note keep in mind the only defensive juggernaut this team has faced is the Minnesota Vikings.

Coming off the off week, I am hoping we will see far less RPO and zone runs – the Bears are talented enough in the backfield that getting outside the tackles may be the plan that resurrects this offense. The NFL remains a league in which you have to be successful in the run game to be successful throwing the ball. Very few teams are good enough to be successful being one dimensional; the Bears are not one of them.

My biggest concern is that Matt Nagy is too proud to change his offensive philosophy in the run game and will keep trying to make chicken salad from a chicken shit line. Nagy is a guy who experienced much success and admiration in his rookie year as head coach. How that the sky is falling on him and he is getting figured out, it’s up to him to counter-punch and get this team in the end zone.

**In an effort to give a more accurate picture of the Bears offense, the above-noted rankings were taking prior to this past week’s games.

Football

Worst title I’ve ever given an article? Yeah, it’s up there but the season is still young, folks!

This week the Bears were gifted a game against a high-octane offense with a backup quarterback under center. Teddy Bridgewater is playing his 6th game this year, his 5th start running the Saints attack. The first question is, who is Teddy Bridgewater? Pick 32 of the 2014 NFL Draft, that’s who. The game managing QB who made his money handing off to Adrian Peterson and throwing to, uh, I’m not really sure. Is Mike Wallace a real person or just a collective fever dream we all went through together, like that one year where Brandon Lloyd was king?

Teddy Bridgewater was the 2014 Rookie of the Year as sponsored by Pepsi and voted on by fans, which is somehow different than the NFL AP vote which pegged Odell Beckham Jr as the best offensive rookie that year. The NFL AP made the better decision, but I still love and respect the concept of the fan vote, since this isn’t the NBA and Yao Ming can’t keep being selected to All Star games even though he didn’t play (Free Hong Kong, while we’re here). 2014 seems like such a different time, and Bridgewater’s path here has been so long and winding that it’s almost surreal to think about OBJ and Teddy coming into the league at the same time. Shit, Teddy was in the Pro Bowl the next season!

…and then you know the rest, I’m assuming. HOWEVER, my bandmate Katie reads these articles for some reason and she has no clue what I’m talking about most of the time, so this one’s for the Katies out there. Bridgewater suffered a non-contact knee injury in practice that was so bad the doctors thought his leg would have to be amputated. He dislocated his knee, tore his ACL, and had significant structural damage. The words that doctors used to describe it sound like metal band song titles:

“Grotesque”
“Mangled”
“Battle wound”
“Worst knee dislocation I’ve seen in sports”

I reached out to my buddy who is a Physical Therapist and asked him his take, and he responded by telling me that a knee dislocation like that can destroy your entire leg and compromise all four ligaments, and the fact that he has anything resembling stability in that knee to this day is beyond him. Shouts out to my homie Virak for the insider tip.

Teddy recovered from an injury that had people fearing he’d never walk again and has now started four games, three years and a handful of months removed from the kneepocalypse. It’s really hard to not root for this guy, but he is at best a replacement-level QB on a team loaded with weapons.

The numbers are nice (69% completion percentage, 7/2 TD/INT ratio), but he isn’t passing the eye test (trust me, I have a number of Saints players in fantasy leagues). Four of those seven scores were against a Tampa Bay defense that plays with the urgency of a pug who just walked a mile and a half. He’s been hot and cold. He was stellar against Tampa Bay and Seattle, and not good against Dallas and Jacksonville.

His stats will give Bears fans Shane Matthews/Kyle Orton flashbacks. His average completed pass travels 4.5 yards in the air. He throws what Football Outsiders defines as a “bad throw” 12% of the time, and he does NOT go deep. The Bears might have an advantage here, with Eddie Jackson lurking on some of those crossing routes underneath. Bridgewater still hasn’t mastered the Drew Brees classic “know exactly which option route Alvin Kamara is going to run and hitting him for a 12 yard gain six times a drive”, but he has weapons.

Teddy is a game manager with an outstanding backstory, but the Bears match up well here against him. If the pass rush can shake him or make him get rid of the ball quickly, I like their odds. Hopefully the defense doesn’t have to send too much extra pressure to get after the plucky Saints QB, because the big play potential is there if Kamara or Michael Thomas find themselves in man coverage with no safety help. Make no mistake, the Saints have some burners and they can turn a short toss into a big gain. Their screen game is tight, and Ted Ginn can stretch the field. If the line can get to Teddy, the Bears have a chance to slow this offense down dramatically.

Baseball

I don’t think there’s a player I’m more confounded by than Ian Happ. And that’s because one week I’ll feel like he’s not getting a real chance, and then the next week I’ll think he’s never going to be anything, and then the one after that I’ll be in the middle before starting the whole cycle over again. It’s dizzying. See if we can’t make sense of it today with some separation from the season.

2019 Stats

58 gams, 156 PA

.264/.333/.564

9.6 BB%  25.0 K% 

11 HR  25 RBI

127 wRC+  .368 wOBA  .898 OPS

2.9 Defensive Runs Saved  1.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: And that’s the thing. Look at those numbers for a third of a season. They’re really good. Like, really good. Even the defense! And yet didn’t you spend at least a portion of Happ’s time in Chicago this year thinking, “It’s never going to happen for this guy. Yet another 1st round miss! SAD!”  Of course you did. We all did. And yet there it is in black and white. He didn’t miss. So just what the fuck is going on here?

With Happ you almost have to go week-to-week or even game-by-game this year to try and get a handle on it. He was called up in late July, got five straight starts though only got two hits in them. But he did walk a ton in those. He then wouldn’t get a start for another week (huh?), earning them after doing some really nice work off the bench (a theme that would continue for the rest of the season). He would get a start the next six games, and in those he pretty much mashed, going 8-for-21 with three homers and only a few strikeouts. Happ started the next three games, only getting one hit, and then only get a start in three of the next eight. It was at this point that Anthony Rizzo got hurt the first time, and Happ would essentially get three straight starts at first, including the sweep of the Mets where he homered of Syndergaard.

It’s in the next stretch where Happ went cold, which seems to have defined his season at least in Maddon’s mind and probably mine. Happ would go 11-for-51 over the next couple weeks, starting either every other game at first and then every third and then none at all. And then of course Happ lit up the Pirates and Cardinals in the last week to give his numbers something of a shine. The games didn’t matter to the Cubs, but they did matter to the Cardinals, and it was only two games, so what the fuck do we make of it? If anything I’m more confused than I was. No one said it would be easy.

What we can say is that Happ had a rough couple weeks in there, which happens to everyone, and had it come earlier in the season or the Cubs with a comfortable lead in the division (and watching the Cardinals in the playoffs it’s even more galling that the Cubs somehow boned this so hard), Joe Maddon probably would just have let Happ play out of it. But given the urgency and time, he couldn’t. Or wouldn’t. I’m not sure. Neither are you. We’re sinking deeper and deeper here.

What we can say is that Happ did cut down his strikeouts this year, from being well over a third of the time to a quarter. That’s still not great, but you can live with it. And frankly in just these 58 games, he put up the same WAR he did in all of 2018 and nearly the same amount as 2017 which the Cubs are basing so much emotion on in the first place.

And while the Cubs harf-harf-harf about more contact, here they have a player who did make more contact. Happ raised his contact% from 77% in ’17 and 70% in ’18 to 82% in his cameo this year. That’s just a tick below league average, which for the Cubs is a goddamn bonanza. Is that real or just a splurge in limited playing time? No one knows, and our picture remains muddied and our lives unclear and the answers farther away. Eat Arby’s.

On the downside, Happ saw a major drop in the amount of line-drives he hit this time around, to about 15%. And an increase in grounders, which isn’t good. His exit-velocity dipped a touch as well. But again, given the sample size, it’s hard to know if this is a trend or just a spike or something in between. All we have is fog.

The book on Happ was that you could simply blow fastballs up in the zone by him all day, and he would murder you on low pitches. The latter still stayed basically the same, as Happ slugged .709 against sinkers this year. The real improvement for Happ came on breaking pitches. Where in the previous two years, he had only managed a .181 average on sliders and .225 on curves, those numbers this year were .529 and .421. He wasn’t cheating to the fastball and getting left out to dry and out ahead by anything.

Were high fastballs still a problem? Yes, of course. But Happ did show improvement in getting to them as a left-handed hitter in the middle or inside. Still not great, but moving in the right direction.

Perhaps the real upset here is that Happ graded out really well with the glove at second and in center. We think of him as a butcher in center, and the very few times they planted him between Castellanos and Schwarber we were pretty much watching with a book on our head. But the numbers suggest he was pretty good out there, with very positive UZR and UZR-150 numbers. I’m just telling you what they say.

Picture is not so clear now, is it?

Contract: Team Control, Arb Eligible in 2021

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: When the season ended, Happ was probably a poster boy for a lot (and maybe even some in the front office) that think he’s the type of hitter the Cubs need to get away from. But that’s just not the case, or it wasn’t in 2019. Now, does that mean he should automatically be back? Not exactly. Given that he’s under team control, his pure athleticism that can have him deployed all over the diamond, the power that we know is there, and the at least somewhat encouraging signs of his abbreviated season in the Bigs, he might have some trade value and could help the Cubs get an arm they need.

That said, with the Cubs priorities having to be pitching and really pitching alone given what’s out there and what we think their budget constraints might be, and given that Happ makes pretty much nothing, he’s also extremely valuable to the Cubs. Or could be. At worst, he could start the season flipping with David Bote at second to keep the seat warm for Nico Hoerner while also getting starts in center. Again, he might be really improving out there. There are basically no center fielders to be gotten in free agency, unless you want to roll the dice on Brett Gardner‘s career-year, and you probably shouldn’t. Whatever trades the Cubs are going to make pretty much have to be for pitching. And if Happ stubs his toe again and the team needs someone in center, they’re more likely to find it at the deadline than in free agency.

Happ only just turned 25, which means he’s just about to enter his prime or just has. Yeah, the pitfalls there and his career feels like it’s careening along a mountain road with no guardrails. It could end with a beautiful view…or it could have a date with some very jagged rocks at very high speeds.

To me, Happ does too much–or has the potential to do too much–to not take one more look in 2020. There may be more answers here than we first thought.

Baseball

Now we come to another key member of The Future™ who had himself a breakout year, Yoan Moncada. Not only did he bust out at the plate (ending up the 4th best hitter in the AL behind Timmy, DJ LeMahieu and Michael Brantley) but also in the field, transitioning pretty seamlessly from the cornerstone position to the hot corner. Let’s dig in, shall we?

 

2019 Stats

.315/.367/.548

Vs LHP .299 Vs RHP .322

7.2 BB% 27.5 K%

25 HR 79 RBI 81 R

.379 wOBA 141 wRC+ 5.7 WAR

Defensive Runs Saved -6 UZR +4.3

 

Tell Me A Story: Questions, questions, questions. Coming into the 2019 season, all Moncada had around him were questions.  In 2018 he slashed .235/.315/.714 and lead the AL in strikeouts which lead to question after question about whether or not Moncada should abandon switch hitting, about his aggressiveness at the plate and whether or not he took too many called 3rd strikes, all the way to his preparation level for his defensive play. There were even a few members of Sox Twitter (depression level: Joker) who had doubts about his hustle level during the season.

Moncada apparently heard all of these questions himself, as in the off-season he headed to Arizona to work with hitting coach Todd Steverson for the Long Dark of winter. During those months, he spent a considerable amount of time on his swing mechanics and working on being more aggressive at the plate. In addition to that, in the middle of his off-season workouts he found out from Ricks Hahn and Renteria that the Sox were going to move him back to 3rd base, which was his original position when he was drafted out of Cuba by the Red Sox. That’s a lot to deal with for someone who was admittedly struggling under the pressure of being ranked the best prospect in baseball and being the cornerstone of a trade involving a potential hall of fame pitcher.

The work he put in during the winter was immediately shown off during Cactus League play in March where he posted a 1.110 OPS and clocked a few dingers. Most importantly he looked far more comfortable hitting from the right side of the plate, where quite a few times he looked lost in 2018. The hot spring training carried right over to the regular season where he hit .301 in April and knocked out 6 of his eventual 25 home runs.

His effectiveness from both sides of the plate was worth noting, as he was able to up his average hitting right handed from .209 in 2018 all the way to .299 this year. The strikeouts dropped precipitously as well, going from a league high 217 last year down to a far more respectable 153 this season. His walk rate dropped, but that’s something you would expect from a player actively working on being more aggressive at the plate. Really the only thing missing in Yoan’s offensive game is power from the right side of the plate, which you can see below in his slugging heat charts.

               

 

Defensively, Moncada improved as well moving from 2B to 3rd pretty easily. His DRS score may not show it with an ugly -6 but looking at his Ultimate Zone Rating for his play at 3rd base and it’s positive for the first time ever in his career. Fangraphs also had him as the 4th best overall 3B in the whole league, based on qualifying time. So while DRS is a solid stat, sometimes it does not tell the entire story defensively for a player. His errors also dropped from 29 last season down to 15 for this year. Not too shabby for one off-season of hard work, which should hopefully put to rest the talk of his lack of preparation and hustle.

Moncada did miss some time at the beginning of August with a hamstring strain, and a few games after getting drilled on the knee with a Chris Sale slider the same game where the Sox lost Tim Anderson to the shitty field conditions at Fenway. Overall however, he was able to stay on the field pretty consistently which is what you would hope for your hot corner.

Contract: Under team control through 2020 making $550,000, Arbitration begins in 2021, free agency in 2024. I would expect the Sox to try and buy him out of those arbitration years in a deal similar (but more expensive) to what Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez got.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Once again, just like Timmy there’s no question that Moncada comes back as perhaps the most important member of The Future™ club. Questions going into next season are all predicated on what Rick Hahn has planned for free agency. While I don’t expect Moncada to be moved in the field again as he’s settled in nicely at 3rd, I wouldn’t completely rule it out should the team make a surprise run at Anthony Rendon should he not re-sign in DC. Other than that, it’s a question of where he hits in the lineup and who is on base for him to drive in. Sky is the limit for Yoan here on out, and it’s gonna be awesome to watch him become the superstar he was advertised to be back when the Sale trade was made. The Red Sox may have won the battle, but I think the White Sox win the war.

 

 

 

Hockey

Ok, so it was the second week but the Hawks only played one game in the first week so it’s the first week of the Sugar Pile and fuck you. That’s how we do things around here.

The Dizzying Highs

David Kampf – While Marcus Kruger‘s rep was at least a little tarnished by his years away from Chicago and then his second tour of duty here (though they were better than you might remember), what shouldn’t be forgotten is just how much of a unicorn he was and how vital he was to the second and third Cup teams. He was a purely defensive center who flipped the ice consistently, and you just don’t find those. Just last season, of the 20 centers who had the worst zone starts, only two had positive, relative Corsi-percentages to their team. They’re just not that common.

And one of those centers was David Kampf, which means the Hawks have a knack for finding these players (or at least their European scouts do).

In the Hawks first four games, Kampf–along with Brandon Saad and Dominik Kubalik–has been identified as a straight checking center. Finally. His only rough game came against the Jets, where he wasn’t deployed as that straight-up against Mark Scheifele, though the Jets obviously have other threats.

But last night was a perfect example, as his line matched up with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl exclusively and rolled out with a 3-to-1 difference in attempts and doubled them up in expected goals, and most importantly played them even in actual goals (+1 if you count the empty-netter, where Toews centered him and Saad). Which no one had done this season in the Oilers 5-0 start.

If the Hawks do anything this season that matters, Kampf will be a very unheralded but very important part of it. If used properly, and if he continues in this fashion, he relieves Toews of the duty of taking on other #1s, which at his age he can’t do and score as much as the Hawks are probably going to need him to. If he keeps turning over other top lines, he forces coaches to make some weird adjustments, as we saw last night with Dave Tippett triple-shifting McDavid just to give him room against someone else.

How Colliton manages Kampf on the road will be a watch. It’s probably too early in the season to start pulling guys off immediately to get Kampf out there against the biggest threats on the fly, but it is a tool Colliton should go to later in the year. For now, starting him in his own zone should see a decent enough amount of matchups against other top lines.

The Hawks have a real tool (in a good way, jerks) here. Pretty sure they know it, now let’s see if they maximize it.

The Terrifying Lows

Jonathan Toews – No reason to panic, as before last season the slow start was something Toews just did. October over his career sees his lowest amount of goals and points, He has averaged .,31 goals per game and .72 points in October, which are below his career averages overall. Last year’s seven goals and 12 points in 13 October games are the anomaly, not this.

Still, in the first three games of the year, Toews got absolutely clocked. 28% Corsi against the Flyers, 16% against the Sharks (what?), and 45% against the Jets. His xGF% was 33%. He was better last night as Kampf spared him having to play against the one center the Oilers have. When you spend most of your night against Riley Sheahan, good things should happen.

Still, Toews has looked a half-step or worse off the pace this year, which was the problem a couple years ago. Again, could just be a slow start. Could be some goofy linemates too, as combined with Alex DeBrincat and Caligula he has too much to do. He has to be some of the puck-winner and some of the playmaker, and that’s not really his game anymore. Caggiula is a good soldier but the Hawks need something more dynamic there (Kirby Dach on a wing?).

Toews has earned all the leeway, but they’ll need more from the captain soon.

The Creamy Middles

Connor Murphy and Duncan Keith – This was probably how it was supposed to look three seasons ago, given that it’s only been two games. But as Niklas Hjalmarsson was moved out, and Joel Quenneville‘s heart with him, Hammer had already supplanted Brent Seabrook as Keith’s main partner. It was the two of them getting turned into person-shaped piles of ash with blinking eyes by Nashville in ’17 that inspired Stan Bowman to look for someone more mobile than Hjalmarsson. Mostly due to  being Q’s red-headed step-child, Murphy only got sporadic looks with Keith, and they didn’t go well. But we imagine this is what Stan envisioned when he made the deal.

Only two games, but Colliton has opted for this as his top pairing and through those two games they’ve been great. They were matched up with Wheeler and Scheifele on Saturday and came out ahead, and did so again last night against McDavid (with help from Kampf, of course). Given what’s on the roster, this is the best the Hawks can do right now. And in these past two games, it’s been more than enough.

Murphy is just about the only other d-man on the roster with the mobility and defensive awareness to cover for Keith when he goes out a-walkin’ after midnight, and gives Keith something of the cushion to still try it. Which he’s going to anyway, but when he’s panicky it only gets worse and Murphy at least takes that away. For now.

Football

Daaaaaaa Bears are back at Halas Hall and practicing this week after the long week off following the loss in London. They’re not whole, though. Kyle Long was mercifully decommissioned on Monday, hitting IR without a designated to return rider. Akiem Hicks isn’t on IR, but Matt Nagy casually said he hopes to see his disruptive DT back THIS SEASON…so, uhh, maybe we’ll see him by Turkey Day?

Mitchell Trubisky, Taylor Gabriel and Bilal Nichols were all back, though, so it’s not all bad. And the Bears look out at an odd, changing NFC that still holds a path to the postseason if they can navigate it all well from here.

Where we left off

The Bears are 3-2, good for third in the division. They lost two games they probably should have won, but won at least one they shouldn’t have, so we’ll call it even. The fairy tale of a near injury-free 2018 has turned into a crowded trainer’s room in 2019: Trubs, Gabriel, Nichols, Hicks, Trey Burton, half or more of the O-Line…all missing time through five games.

The off week comes at a good time getting a good amount of that list back for Week 7, and while the loss of Long may actually end up being a positive (more on that later) the arm injury to Hicks is a major blow. Nichols will need to step in and contribute right away and more is needed from the already pleasant surprise of Roy Robertson-Harris. Hey, it’s not all bad. They still have Khalil Mack.

Trubs back under center remains an uncertainty, but anyone that wants to argue they’re better with Chase Daniel is lying to you and themselves. Mitch is the guy, for better or worse. Nagy getting the best out of him and the offense is still the key to the way this team is built. The revamped offensive line helping to open up the run game is probably what helps Mitch and Nagy more than just getting the QB1 back.

Dan Durkin at the Athletic penned a massive article you can go read if you want, but it basically boils down to the big bodies up front getting to the second level and giving the backs something to work with. There’s more to it than that, but it boils down to better play in the trenches going a long way to offensive success.

State of the NFC…and path to the playoffs? 

The NFC North is incredibly tight. The Packers are in control at 5-1 after a very, um, oddly officiated MNF win over the Lions last night. Detroit drops to 2-2-1, but they look better than expected thus far. Minnesota is going to look great and then awful week to week, but currently sit at 4-2 after a big win over Philadelphia. So the Pack sit in the driver’s seat, but they’re banged up on offense and might be carried by the defense for the first time in…ever? The division is still very much in play, but for a team that needs to create their own identity, the Bears should focus on winning each week one at a time.

That mentality starts now, with a home date and the 5-1 Saints ahead. Beyond that, games against the Eagles, Lions x2, and Rams will all hold bigger weight than a single win as they could come into play as tie-breakers in the NFC playoff picture. If the Bears aren’t at eight wins by December, that big SNF matchup with Dallas won’t be big at all. Can Nagy get it all going well enough to go 5-2 from now until December? A final month of games with the Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs and Vikings sets up for some real excitement if this team can get things sorted out.

That’s a very big “if” at the moment.

Hockey

The Rockford IceHogs have gone 0-3 to open up their 2019-20 season. This is the first time a Rockford club has started its AHL season with three consecutive losses. What isn’t new, however, is the manner in which the piglets have been losing.

It starts with putting the puck in opposing nets. The Hogs just haven’t been doing enough of it.

Rockford dropped the home opener 4-2 to Grand Rapids on Saturday night. Two days later, in a matinee performance at the BMO Harris Bank Center, the IceHogs fell to Laval 3-1.

The Hogs have not converted any of their ten power plays so far this season. They’ve been out shot in every game; Laval, who was 0-3 entering Monday buried Rockford to the tune of 43-22. Philip Holm struck cord from the slot in the first period off a drop pass from the stick of Jacob Nilsson.

Unfortunately, that was the high-water mark of the day for Rockford. The Rocket scored twice in the second period and limited the IceHogs to five shots on goal in the third.

Rockford also drew first blood on Saturday, with Anton Wedin potting his first goal of the season. Wedin banged in a long rebound of a Nilsson shot 7:24 of the opening frame. The Griffins scored the next three goals to take control of the game.

Dylan Sikura sent a laser past Grand Rapids rookie goalie Filip Larsson to close the gap to one midway through the game, but the Griffins tallied late in the second for the final margin of victory. The Hogs went with six skaters for most of the final five minutes of action only to come up empty.

 

What’s Up With Dach

Rockford fans got an unexpected look at Chicago’s 2019 first-round selection in the NHL Draft. Kirby Dach is still too young to be a full-time AHL player, but a loophole in the AHL/CHL agreement allowed the Blackhawks to send the 18-year-old Dach to Rockford for a two-week conditioning assignment.

Dach skated both games this weekend. Aside from the opening minutes Saturday night, where I thought he looked a wee bit tentative, he was a pretty solid citizen out there. He skated really well, fore checked hard and wasn’t afraid to get to the front of the net.

Despite not recording a point Saturday or Monday, Dach looked like he was handling the pace of play just fine. Will he remain in Rockford long enough to record his first professional points? That remains to be seen.

The IceHogs have a home-and-home weekend with the Chicago Wolves coming up. The Hawks could leave Dach in the Rock up until October 25, when the Hogs visit Cleveland. If I interpret the rule book correctly, Dach could play five games in the AHL and still be eligible to skate up to nine games with Chicago before he would need to be sent back to juniors.

Perhaps management takes advantage of this to get him a few more pro games under his belt. We’ll keep an eye on the transaction wire to see what develops.

In another roster move on Saturday, Rockford recalled defenseman Jack Ramsey from the ECHL’s Indy Fuel. This gives the IceHogs eight blueliners on the roster.

 

A Delia Kind Of Weekend

Collin Delia was in net for both games, with Matt Tomkins backing him up. Kevin Lankinen had the weekend off for whatever reason.

Delia was better Monday than he was on Saturday, but was solid in both of his first two appearances this season. Tomkins would be better served getting time in the Fuel net; unless Lankinen is injured, I would expect Tomkins to be sent to Indy by the end of the week.

 

Gazing At The Stat Sheet

Dylan Sikura leads the IceHogs with two goals. He shares the points lead in Rockford with Wedin (1 G, 1 A), Holm (1 G, 1 A) and Nilsson (2 A).

John Quenneville, who was sent to Rockford last week, skated both games the weekend for his first action of the season.

Tim Soderlund made his Hogs debut on Monday, though he did not dent the scoresheet. The same went for Nick Moutrey, who made his first appearance of the campaign on Saturday.

 

Wolves Preview

Here’s what you need to know about the Chicago Wolves:

  • They’re the defending Western Conference champions.
  • After splitting a weekend visit to San Antonio, the Wolves are 1-2 for the season.
  • There was a lot of turnover to the roster this summer, but Chicago returns veteran talent like center Curtis McKenzie. They added center Patrick Brown, who was a member of the Calder Cup-winners in Charlotte last season, and Tye McGinn, a long-time AHL veteran.
  • Gage Quinney and Keegan Kolesar both were potent scorers a season ago for the Wolves.
  • The defense is a little green, but the Wolves picked up a couple of veterans in Jaycob Megna and Brent Lernout. Dylan Coughlin (15 G, 25 A last season) is the standout of this group.
  • Oscar Dansk was called up to Vegas last week. Garret Sparks looks to get most of the workload in net for the Wolves until Dansk returns.
  • Friday’s affair is at the BMO, with the action moving to Allstate Arena Saturday. These are the first of twelve meetings between the two interstate rivals. Rockford will attempt to wrest a talisman known as the MIGHTY ILLINOIS LOTTERY CUP from the Wolves after three seasons.

I’ll be back next Monday to recap Wolves weekend and all the fun it should entail. Until then, follow me @JonFromi on twitter for thoughts on the IceHogs throughout the season.

 

Hockey

It finally happened, folks! The Hawks played a solid game nearly the full 60 minutes, they had even-strength goals, Corey Crawford was back to his old self. And all is right with the world (well, not really, but for like this very minute it kinda is).

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

–The big news (aside from the win, obviously) is that the Hawks didn’t get domed in the second period. And not only did they avoid playing like shit, they were actually dominant in that period. They outshot the Oilers 17-6, led 32-8 in attempts, had a 75 CF% at evens, and of course got the only goal of the period thanks to a quick shot from Kane off a faceoff win by Dylan Strome. And it was an even strength goal—who knew they could still do that? Beyond the numbers, they passed the eye test too. Brandon Saad had two excellent chances in the period, both off lovely feeds from Dominik Kubalik just above the circles. Darnell Nurse made a great play on the first one to break up Saad’s momentum and the second one he hit the post, but despite the lack of finish they were exactly the plays and chances we want to see. And Connor Murphy made the same feed to Caggiula in the second so if any of these guys could learn to finish, we may have that air raid offense we keep talking about.

–There was, however, an element of luck to all this. Yes, the Oilers did not play all that well tonight but Connor McDavid‘s speed is still other-worldly even on an off night, and he nearly tied it after calmly stealing the puck from Ryan Carpenter (who otherwise wasn’t bad) and driving right to the net. He lost control a bit and the contact with Crawford negated the goal, but if he had stopped about six inches sooner the second would have ended tied.

–And that exemplified how even in this dominant period, it felt like the Hawks’ lead was tenuous—that they were one bad break away from losing their grip on things. The Oilers seemed confused as to why things weren’t going their way, why all the bad bounces and classic Crawford saves were thwarting them, and it wasn’t until the second goal in the third that it began to feel like the Hawks were in control.

Alexander Nylander got that go-ahead goal—did you think you were gonna hear that? We like to give Nylander a lot of shit around here, but it actually was a nice takeaway from McDavid of all people (again, he had an off night). It was a badly needed insurance goal. So they’re going to still try and make Fetch happen, get ready. I’m of the opinion that one good play does not a useful player make, but the Hawks NEED this trade to work so despite being marooned on the fourth line, he’ll worm his way into the lineup again and they’ll keep Fetch around for a little while.

–Crawford was fucking great. He had a .964 SV% and made the point-blank saves we know and love him for. He absolutely deserved to be the first star of the game, and everyone who was freaking out that he’s lost his touch should sit down.

–Speaking of things working, can we keep Kubalik-Kampf-Saad together? They had a 79 CF% on the night, and to put it another way, they were largely responsible for keeping McDavid-Draisaitl-Kassian to a 41 CF%. It’s telling in and of itself that Beto O’Colliton put 8-64-20 out against one of the best lines in the entire NHL and not the ostensible top line. And it made sense, seeing as McDavid’s line had some of their most productive shifts against Strome’s line in the third. Like everyone else, I’m confused if Toews is hurt or if he’s just in a slump or if it’s a sign of a course correction after his renaissance last year. It’s probably too soon to tell, but signs aren’t good thus far.

–The penalty kill was marginally better. There was a shot off the post in the first, so again, a bit of luck, and obviously the Oilers converted late in the third which really created some unnecessary drama. But, even aside from those issues it was still better, going 2-for-3. The power play…meh, I guess it was slightly better at times but that’s not saying much. They avoided the frustrating stand-around-and-wait-for-Kane bullshit, but they got held to the outside, which they still struggled to do on their own penalty kill. So special teams are a work in progress, is what I’m trying to say.

–Brandon Saad worked so damn hard to get a goal and even that empty netter was like there was a force field on the goal line but he PERSEVERED people. Four shots, one goal, 72 CF%…he had himself a night.

Obviously we hope this is the start of the Hawks turning things around—getting some reliability with the lines, less awful special teams, people shutting the hell up about Crawford. But it remains to be seen, for now, onward and upward…

Line of the Night: “They’re sellouts but there are still tickets available.” —Foley doing the mandated wheel pose about the sellout streak and GREAT SEATS STILL AVAILABLE at the same time

Beer de jour: Lagunitas Daytime (yes, it’s nighttime, I know, leave me alone)