Hockey

Angry At Numbers – Penalty Kill Edition

By Sam Fels 1763 0

Whenever the job-reaper comes for Jeremy Colliton, be it the middle of the season, in the summer, or never, he’s going to try and mount some defense if only to make himself more attractive for another job down the road. He doesn’t want to be Trent Yawney, y’know? And the first thing, maybe the only thing, he can point to as something that’s improved markedly from his first year to his second is the penalty kill.

The Hawks currently are in the top-1o on the PK, which is a drastic improvement on the historically bad unit that befouled arenas and our TV sets last year. Now it would be easy to dismiss this improvement as merely and improvement in goaltending, and you can’t ignore that.

This year the SV% on the kill is .892, third-best in the league. Last year it was .842, which was sixth-worst in the league. So yes, that’s a big difference. But it’s not only that.

Overall, there are other improvements however. This year, the Hawks are giving up 97.4 attempts per 60 on the kill. Their xGA/60 on the kill is 6.33. Last year, those numbers were 104.5 and 8.1. Now, it’s hard to visualize or really understand those numbers, but a 25% reduction in expected goals against certainly is noticeable. The attempts against moves them from third-worst last year to middle of the pack this year, even if a reduction in attempts of merely 6% doesn’t really register.

If it helps, the Hawks have gone from giving up 63 shots per 60 minutes on the kill to 56 now, which directly mirrors the attempts they’re giving up. So it’s not like they’re blocking shots that much more often, they’re not even giving the lanes to shoot. Which is good.

On an individual level, there’s been improvement both in new players brought in and an uptick from those that were already here:

xGA/60  This Year/Last Year

Connor Murphy – 6.35/7.89

Duncan Keith – 7.62/8.94

David Kampf – 7.4/9.54

Jonathan Toews – 6.00/8.96

What has also helped is the players who weren’t here. Where Brent Seabrook led the team in shorthanded time-on-ice last year, that’s been replaced, or was, by Calvin de Haan. Ryan Carpenter in for the declining Marcus Kruger. Olli Maatta has replaced Carl Dahlstrom and Seabrook, and the one thing Maatta has been good at is on the kill.

Speaking of Seabrook, it’s time to be mean.

86.1/101.3   5.06/6.76

Those are the differences in the Hawks PK’s CA/60 and xGA/60 after and before Seabrook was put on the shelf for the season. It’s only been 14 games, and any special team can go on a run for 14 games. I’M NOT SAYIN’ I’M JUST SAYIN’….

So yeah, the goalies certainly have made a difference, but Colliton can claim to improved the overall system on the kill, and they certainly aren’t giving up shots from the middle nearly as much and are pushing things to the sides at a slower pace so they can get in the lanes. That’s something. It’s not enough but it’s something.

Some others…

37 in 37 (in a row?)

That’s Jonathan Toews the past 37 games. We almost forgot that he only had two points in the first 11 games, where we really started to worry if he’d lost a step. He definitely was a half-step behind the play more than we’d ever seen before. And now he’s been averaging a point-per-game for nearly half a season, and is on pace for 66 points which would be just about what you’d expect. If he were to continue to be a point-per-game, it would be 73. And it’s surprising because A) he’s not lighting it up on the PP like he was last year and B) he hasn’t really been playing with any offensive dynamo. Saad and Kubalik are certainly not bad players, but they aren’t the dynamic forces that Kane or DeBrincat can be. So yeah, we’ll never worry again…until next October, obvi.

 

Hockey

Game #48: Hawks 4, Canadiens 1 – Insert Spiderman Meme Here

By Rose Rankin 2266 0

We know exactly what it feels like to be what the Habs were tonight…dominant in possession yet unable to capitalize on the power play and losing to a mediocre team. The difference is, the Hawks have excellent goaltending and Montreal most certainly did not. Although Crawford (great as he was) isn’t the only story tonight. Some fourth-line luck and decent special teams work did what they’re supposed to do, and were enough for a win. Let’s get to it:

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–It’s hard to believe I’m writing this, but Zack Smith was the difference-maker tonight, proving that there really is a first time for everything. But hey, good for him, right? Early in the first, he and Drake Caggiula took advantage of Charlie Lindgren being Charlie Lindgren when there was a bad turnover behind the Habs net on the PK, and it resulted in Smith scoring a short-handed goal. Then Smith potted another (even strength) goal barely three minutes later, and it was undoubtedly the best period of his life. It’s easy to laugh at the situation, or laugh at the Habs for letting this bum score twice on them, but honestly it was downright refreshing to have someone different step up and score. Especially with this being the second of a back-to-back, having the fourth line eat up some minutes and be productive while doing so was exactly what was needed.

–Related: when Drake Caggiula scores on you, you suck. Sorry, Lindgren, but it’s true.

–On the other hand, Dominik Kubalik suddenly couldn’t buy a goal, and not for lack of trying. He had three shots, all of which would have been easy goals, well, last night or any game in the last little stretch here. They were those point-blank shots that make you wonder how it couldn’t possibly have gone in because given the laws of physics, it would seem much more likely that the puck would go in rather than stay out. In fact the top line as a whole struggled to find the back of the net, and it was when Caligula moved off the top line that he did end up scoring. It’s really not a big deal (who gives a shit if they don’t score in one game?), but my concern is that Coach Cool Youth Pastor will use this as proof that Kubalik-Toews-Kane isn’t the right combo for the top line because they didn’t score in the .02 seconds they had on the ice together. But here goes dumb ‘ole Caggiula scoring so he’ll be back on the top line by Saturday.

–Adam Boqvist had a couple nice plays, although the stats were rather ugly for the night. In the first period he saved a goal when Crawford got lost in space and couldn’t make it back to the far post in time, and it was a good keep by Boqvist at the blue line that set up Top Cat’s power play goal in the second. He flashed some speed but finished with a miserable 24 CF%, so cherry pick whatever you want from that information. Our other tender-age star, Kirby Dach, had a no-good very bad game. In the first, he broke his stick on an power play attempt, right in the slot and you could practically hear the sad trombone sound, and he followed it up by taking a penalty a few seconds later to negate the advantage for the Hawks. Even beyond that, he fumbled shots, and his line with DeBrincat and Kampf only managed a 38 CF% at evens. Like the top line, it was nothing to get upset about–both Boqvist and Dach are going to have games like this–but it’s becoming worrisome that Dach has struggled for a couple weeks because he needs confidence and decent coaching at this impressionable stage. Right now he seems to be sorely lacking both.

–Corey Crawford was outstanding as usual in Montreal. Admittedly he looked a little shaky in the first, particularly when he fell on his ass behind the net, all by himself, but it obviously only injured his pride. Losing his net when Boqvist had to bail him out was also concerning, but when it mattered most he was lights-out. He finished with a .970 SV%, and the one goal he did give up came in the midst of the Habs completely running over the Toews line, in one of the stretches where it felt like the Hawks were dispossessed for hours at a time (there were many of these). For all the Habs’ dominance in possession, he was up to the task the rest of the time with a number of excellent saves, and overcame some rebound issues early on. People can sing Lehner’s praises all they want, but Crawford is god.

–It was good to see DeBrincat score, especially on a power play. Nothing earth-shattering, but let’s take what we can get.

So far, so good on this road trip. Or train trip, which the broadcast wouldn’t shut the fuck up about. They honestly sounded like old-timey boosters describing the wonders of the new iron horse, as if millions of people don’t take trains every damn day (and as if professional soccer teams in Europe don’t use them constantly to get to games). Dumbasses. But hey, wins are wins, so onward and upward…

Hockey

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Canadiens Preview: They’re A Bit Spiky, A Bit…French

By Sam Fels 1478 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 21-20-6   Canadiens 20-20-7

PUCK DROP: 6:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

GREAT BAGELS THERE: Habs Eyes On The Prize

Hey did you hear the Hawks took a train from Ottawa to Montreal? Crazy, right? I mean, who does that? A train from city center to city center without dealing with an airport that neither town has near downtown? Other than like, every East Coast team between DC and Boston? Who ever heard of such a thing? Geniuses, these Hawks.

Anyway, now that everyone apparently has survived this galaxy-brained tactic of taking, y’know, a train between two cities, the Hawks will use that advantage to take on their mirror image in a lot of ways in the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs are also an O6 franchise that can’t seem to get its dick out of a knot, are staring down their third-straight playoff-less season, and don’t seem to have any particular direction. Fuck, they even employ former Hawks assistant GM Marc Bergevin, who has done pretty much nothing since getting there 48 years ago or so it feels. But hey, he speaks French and everyone says he was a funny guy back in the day, so here he still is, serving up tepid stew as a hockey team once again.

The difference is that the Canadiens actually do things well with no stars to make it count, where the Hawks don’t really do anything well amongst their skaters but their stars barely keep them relevant. Metrically, the Canadiens are one of the best teams around, as Claude Julien teams tend to be. If you go by Corsi-percentage, or expected goals percentage, or just attempts per game for and against, or expected goals for and against per game, you’ll find the Habs top-10 in all of them. They keep the puck and they create the better chances more often.

What they can’t do is finish them. Les Habitants are bottom-1o in SH% at even-strength. Combine that with the fact they’re only getting middling goaltending from Carey Price this year, and they just can’t seem to turn these numbers into wins. Even a rise in SH% from their current 7.4% to just 8.0% would see eight more goals for them at evens, which can be six or more points in the standings. That would have them right on the wildcard hunt and breathing down the necks of Buds All Day for the last automatic spot in the Atlantic. You can’t miss the bear, people.

The Habs are also pretty damn fast, even without Paul Byron and Brendan Gallagher as they’re currently injured. This is a team that can feature Artturi Lehkonen and Jesperi Kotkaniemi on its third line at times. It just doesn’t have what you’d call front-line scoring. That’s why Ilya Kovalchuk is now here, hilariously. Tomas Tatar is on the top line. Phillip Danault is awesome and has a serious case for the Selke this year, but he’s also not a top line center as the Canadiens have to use him. The hope would be that Nick Suzuki becomes that one day, but that’s a hell of a stretch.

You used to think of Montreal as having a plodding defense behind these gnat forwards, but that’s not as much the case anymore. Ben Chiarot is at least an upgrade on Karl Alzner, and Cale Fleury and Victor Mete (which you have to pronounce as Jonah Jameson even if you have to mispronounce “MEH-te” as “MEAT”) on the third pairing certainly upgrade the mobility scales. Weber and Chariot have been great together, and Jeff Petry always makes it work despite being 198 years old (somehow he’s only listed as 32 but I’m sure that’s a lie).

Price is only sporting a .908 this year, but the Habs have yet to locate a suitable backup for him so he’s playing too much and not all that well. If they were getting Price of four years ago, they’re almost certainly a playoff team. But they’re not, which leaves them seven points adrift and having four teams to leap to get there. Sound familiar? It’s like looking in a mirror…only…not.

For the Hawks, the only change we should see is Corey Crawford starting in his hometown again, where he’s generally been brilliant. Crow carries a lifetime .954 against Montreal anywhere, and his last five appearances in the Bell Centre have seen him give up four goals total. Clearly he likes it there.

The Hawks will be up against it on the back end of a back-to-back here, given how fast the Canadiens can play. A good time to remind everyone that though they won their last trip there in March, they also gave up 48 shots to do it and Crow got them all. Best not to repeat that. A track meet wouldn’t suit the Hawks here, though they could end up finishing more chances than the Habs do even if they give up more. Play this one a little more simple.

It’s a busy end to the pre-bye schedule, as the Hawks will close with three-in-four after this, making a total of five games in eight days in four cities. And they need most of the points on offer if not all of them. This is what happens when you back yourself into corners like this. Allez.

 

Hockey

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Canadiens Spotlight: Carey Price And Nobody Knows Nothin’

By Sam Fels 1297 0

When Carey Price signed his bonanza extension in 2017, it seemed as sure of a bet as anyone can make on a goalie. Price was clearly the best around, was only 28, coming off his fourth-straight .920+ SV% season and fifth out of seven (though one of those was only 12 games long thanks to an injury). Throw in the gold medal he simply waltzed to with Team Canada, as well as a Vezina and Hart Trophy and you have as close to a lock in the crease as you would have thought.

About that…

Price would back up that contract the next season with a .923 and another Vezina finalist appearance. It’s that since then, he’s been mired in the swamp of “meh” and sort of taking the Canadiens with him. A .900 in ’17-’18, a better .918 last year that still isn’t up to the standard he set, and a .908 this year. The last two aren’t bad numbers exactly, but they don’t prop up the lack of top-tier finishing the Habs currently sport, nor do they live up to the $10.5M hit that Price has on their cap from here until Heat Death Of All. When you’re taking home that bag with the “$” on it and your team is looking at three straight years out of the playoffs, especially in Montreal where everyone is a loon, you know where the focus falls.

Price is only 32, and that seems an early cut-off from when goalies can and should remain among the elite. Currently, 33-year-old Ben Bishop is your odds-on for another Vezina and 32-year-old Tuukka Rask is right behind him. The difference is that neither have been asked to shoulder the amount of starts in recent years that Price has, as both have had more than capable backups. And that’s multiple stops for Bishop.

Same goes for other goalies currently in the top-1o right now. Either they’re younger or are getting many more nights off, like Kuemper or Binnington or Hellebuyck or Lehner. Indeed, most of the league is moving to having something closer to 1 and 1As, or steering away from giving a starter anything more than 55 starts. And when you can’t do that, you’ve seen the problems the Habs, or the Knights, or the Canucks, or a few others are having.

But of course, that raises the question on whether or not you should be paying a goalie anywhere near Price’s $10 mildo if he needs to be paired with another to take at least 25 starts.

How much does Price’s salary hurt? Hard to say. The Habs aren’t capped out but had to bury Karl Alzner in Laval to get some space. They have some $16M in space next year though Domi will get a raise and the Habs clearly need more. It’s the following year when things really open up for them, as right now only Price, Weber, Byron, Chiarot, Drouin, and Cale Fleury are signed for that season. The Canadiens could be totally reconstructed if they so choose.

What they do with Price is another question. Moving him isn’t an option, and they’ll most likely always have to accommodate a goalie in the $3M-$4M range to pair with him. But that’s nearly $15M a year you’d be allotting to your crease, which seems a hinderance. Or they will just have to keep drafting and hitting on ones to back up before having to pay them. Only the Capitals can do that, silly.

It’s also worth noting that Henrik Lundqvist, Price’s contemporary, hasn’t hit a .920 season since turning 33. Fleury’s revival season in Vegas also came at 33, but he’s been nothing more than ok since. Bobrovsky is already falling off in his 30s. It could be that it’s just a younger man’s position now.  Corey Crawford has had basically a year and a half off out of the past two and still hasn’t found it at 35. Which makes it even weirder that most goalies don’t even get a look until their mid-2os, giving them a running back-like window.

Perhaps the Hawks should consider this if they get too out there on re-signing what will be a 29-year-old Robin Lehner this summer for many years.

Hockey

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Canadiens: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

By Sam Fels 1186 0

Max Domi – Everything we said about Matt Duchene’s face but then add in ignorant MAGA views and his shithead father.

Nick Cousins – Important reminder: He’s a rapist and Kyle Dubas covered for him.

Dale Weise – It doesn’t get enough attention that this guy cost the Hawks Phillip Danault, and then the Habs ended up with both anyway. Like, that’s nearly as bad as this Nylander-for-Jokiharju bit.

Hockey

Game #48 – Hawks vs. Canadiens: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 1128 0

Hawks

Notes: Obviously no morning skate today but we’re not expecting many changes. Koekkoek’s actually been fine in third-pairing duty so he shouldn’t have to sit for the monolith Gilbert. Crow starts in his hometown…Kubalik ended up with nine shots on goal last night…

Canadiens

Notes: Habs didn’t skate this morning either, but this is how it looked on Monday against the Flames…Chiarot returned from injury that night and he and Weber have been a force together. Not like the Jets need d-men or anything…Tatar and Danault have been possession monsters but Tatar hasn’t scored in his last nine…Domi hasn’t scored in his last seven either…

Hockey

Game #47 – You Don’t Have to be Beautiful to Turn Me On – Hawks 2, Senators 2 (Hawks Win Whatever It Is They Do for Fun in Ottawa)

By John Pullega 1768 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

It took about 30 minutes, but the Hawks came roaring back against a team that hadn’t won a game since December 23 to win their third game after trailing through two periods. Never mind that the Senators are a divot full of wastewater runoff. Two points is two points. Let’s.

– Someone ought to give Mats Hallin a number just so we can retire it. He’s struck gold once again with Dominik Kubalik, who continues to complement his booming shot with speed and the exact kind of toughness along the boards and in front of the net that make things move in the nethers. He’s now on a six-game points streak and a five-game goals streak. He has 10 points over those six games and a cumulative 61+ CF% over those six. Tonight, he was second among all Hawks forwards in CF% (76+), led everyone in the universe with a literally unbelievable 96.87 xGF%, and had nine shots on goal.

He’s been dominant recently when given the chance.

– Which is why someone needs to tell Jeremy Colliton that absolutely no one tunes in to watch him put on Kissinger’s toilet glasses and flex his Throbbing Genious Brain. Look at the game flow chart here:

This is where Colliton stopped playing with his pud and put Kane with Kubalik and Toews. Who would have thought that loading up your top line against one of the NHL’s urinals would lead to complete dominance going forward? This “spreading out the scoring” horseshit only works when you have forward depth, and the Hawks absolutely do not have that. If the Hawks want to continue this playoff-team farce—and whatever, I’m here to watch them win—Colliton must stop trying to show everyone how fucking smart he thinks he is.

Ryan Carpenter is a fine fourth liner. Alex Nylander sucks. Patrick Kane should never be playing with either of them. Keep Kubalik–Toews–Kane together. This isn’t fucking difficult.

– Drake Caggiula had himself a great game. He led all skaters in 5v5 possession with an 88+ CF%. He also had a hilarious 94+ xGF%. He’s another fine bottom six guy who can contribute when not asked to play so far out of his element. He exceled when Coach Gemstone finally slotted him off the top line. It’s doubly encouraging that he did so well in just his third game back from the land of wind and ghosts. Yeah, it’s Ottawa, but whatever. Gotta start somewhere.

– Friendly reminder that the Blackhawks could have traded Erik Gustafsson at any point during the season before the deadline last year. Or during the off-season. Instead, we get to watch him get turned inside out in the slot by Chris Tierney for absolutely no good reason on the Sens’s second goal. You may have been willing to forgive such atrocious coverage when he was putting up 60 points, but he’s not going to do that ever again. There aren’t any other options because Stan Bowman is a moron, but it’s nonetheless agonizing.

– Jonathan Toews put up another good game tonight. It’s amazing what he can do when he’s not forced to drag AHLers and glorified fourth liners around. His 71+ CF% and 96+ xGF% tonight were a feast for the nerds. And he was easy on the eyes, contributing to every single goal the Hawks scored.

On the first, he won the puck behind the net and flung a crisp pass to the slot. Kubalik missed on it, but it found a waiting Kane, who ricocheted a shot off Kubalik’s shin pads.

On the second, Toews dropped a two-line stretch pass onto Kubalik’s stick, who exploded through the neutral zone for his second goal. No muss, no fuss.

And of course, Toews pantsed Hogberg in OT. An all-around outstanding performance from the captain.

It was more of a struggle than it needed to be, but when Colliton got out of his own way, the Hawks pulled it out. We can only watch and wonder whether he will keep his most dominant line together tomorrow night in Montreal, and if they want to keep flirting with the idea of going to the playoffs, there’s no excuse not to.

Onward.

Beer du Jour: Kalamazoo Stout

Line of the Night: “I heard there might be some beer on that train.” –Steve Konroyd describing the train ride the Hawks are taking to Montreal

Hockey

Game #47 – Hawks vs. Senators Preview: Ottawa…I Don’t Think So

By Sam Fels 1562 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 20-20-6    Senators 16-22-7

PUCK DROP: 6:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

BULWORTHS: Silver Seven Sens

The Hawks get to remain in the remedial class after their win against the Ducks tonight, and arguably tomorrow, as they’ll head for the Eastern Canada swing. They kick it off tonight against the equally-rebuilding-as-the-Ducks Senators, before decamping east into La Belle Province to face another floundering O6 team in Montreal on Wednesday. But first things first, a contest out in the middle of nowhere Ontario. Even though basically Ontario is nowhere, and deep down even Ontario knows that.

The Senators aren’t quite as bad as they were supposed to be. This was supposed to be a Wings-like outfit, with a sad little point total as they raced to the #1 pick in June. And the Senators certainly aren’t good, but they haven’t redefined stink as we know it like the Motor City cadre. Still, they’re tied for the second-fewest regulation wins in the league with the just-conquered Ducks and two ahead of the Wings. Perhaps they just couldn’t anticipate just how bad the Wings would be. Who could?

Not that the Sens do anything well. They’re bottom-five in both goals-for and goals-against in the league. Their metrics aren’t much better, though they’re a little weird. They give up a ton of attempts, and have one of the worst Corsi-shares around. But their expected-goals marks are basically middle fo the pack, in that they don’t give up a ton of great chances. They’re not a great defensive team by any sense of the word, and they don’t have nearly enough firepower to make any team capable of breathing sweat. But they do limit the kinds of things they give up, which is more than you can say for the Hawks. In fact, if they were getting any kind of goaltending, they might barely be on the fringes of they playoff picture.

But the thing is, Craig Anderson is now three days older than water and Anders Nilsson is the very definition of “replacement level goalie.” So this is what you get.

The Sens have gotten breakout seasons from Anthony Duclair (spotlighted earlier) and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, the latter of which figures to be a pretty valuable commodity around the deadline. He’s cheap now at $3M and will make a decent 2-3 center for some contender down the stretch. He also is an impending UFA, so he’s going to get a major raise which probably isn’t in the interest of the Senators.

The only pieces that figure to be around whenever this thing turns in Ottawa is whichever garbage Tkachuk son resides there and Thomas Chabot. You may have heard about Chabot playing 37 minutes in a game recently and averaging about 27 minutes per night the past couple months. I mean, why not play your future pieces into dust now while you suck raw sewage, eh? I suppose names like Filip Chlapik, or Rudolfs Balcers (which sounds like a gastrointestinal problem), or Drake Batherson (which definitely was a character in Knives Out) could make the list before the year is out but they have some work to do. The road is long for the Sens, let’s just say that.

For the Hawks, Robin Lehner gets his “revenge” game or whatever as a former Senator before Corey Crawford gets the hometown start in Montreal tomorrow, where he generally has flourished. Thanks to the demotion of  John Quenneville, which was done because the Hawks actually feared putting him on waivers, means that Dylan Sikura gets back in the lineup. Zack Smith also has this as a homecoming, having spent his entire career in Ottawa before moving south.

Neither the Senators or Canadiens are any damn good, so the Hawks might want to gobble up these points before seeing a rejuvenated, if not beat up, Leafs squad on Hockey Night. They’re getting close to the bye, which generally has seen them turn the motor off. And that’s fine if they’ve scratched this season. If they’re still planning on making something of it, these are games you have to have. Well, they have to have them all but we know how they do against other teams actually competing for playoff spots, but you know how this goes.