Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Hockey

  • Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: Lineup & How They Were Built

    Game #50 – Jets vs. Hawks: Lineup & How They Were Built

    Jets

    Notes: The Jets couldn’t really afford some injuries on defense, it wasn’t good to begin with. But they’ve got that, which is why Niku is up and Kulikov is on the top pairing. There’s gold in them thar hills…Connor is on a bit of a heater, with six points in his last five and he absolutely murders the Hawks with five goals in 11 career games…Hellebuyck got torched by the Bolts, but everyone is these days, but in his four starts before that he’d given up six goals, including against Nashville and Toronto…

    Hawks

    Notes: If there’s any changes it’ll be to get Brandon Hagel into the lineup, probably ahead of Nylander but maybe Highmore…A big reason the Hawks have leveled out is they’ve sorted out the bottom of the roster, especially the third pairing. Slater Koekkoek has been a huge improvement over Dennis Gilbert, so the Hawks are no longer getting buried for a quarter to a third of the game…Caggiula also has a hand in that, who is what they thought Andrew Shaw would be…

  • Game #49: Hawks 6, Leafs 2 – Don’t Tease Me If You’re Not Gonna Please Me

    Game #49: Hawks 6, Leafs 2 – Don’t Tease Me If You’re Not Gonna Please Me

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    These kinds of wins from the Hawks are always simultaneously thrilling and frustrating. Obviously, skullfucking any opponent that is so much better than the Hawks on paper like the Leafs appear to be feels incredible, but then you check some of the metrics on the game and they seem to tell something of a different story. On top of that, it makes you wonder where performances like these are the rest of the season. But I also don’t want to complain about awesome wins like this. Let’s do it:

    THE BULLETS

    – His surge of late has been so sudden and seemingly out of nowhere, that I am still consistently in shock about Dominik Kubalik coming on so strong recently. Before the season I felt like he would be a solid middle-six contributor, but recently he really seems to be hitting a stride and showing that he might be a bit more than that. His second goal tonight, batting the puck of thin air and into the net, was some incredible shit and personally I would like to see if he can play right field on the South Side with contact skills like that. Hopefully this isn’t just a scoring surge that will peter out and really is the result of a strong coming-out campaign.

    – On top of that, Jonathan Toews is continuing his Fuck You Tour from last year, adding another four points tonight that give him 43 total in 49 games this year. His first goal was literally just him telling the entire Leafs roster to eat his dust, going full on Fuck It mode and undressing Freddy Andersen, and his second was him doing that *again* for good measure. Don’t let any dumb motherfuckers tell you that he is not good at hockey, and if people do tell you that, call them a dumb motherfucker.

    – Patrick Kane added himself a point to get within one of 1000 on his career, but overall he had something of a rough night. It felt to me like he was pressing really hard to get that 1000th point once he got 999, but through that pressing he was making a lot of bad plays in the offensive zone. I hope he gets that point ASAP – preferably though a goal – so we don’t have to deal with that kinda stuff much more going forward.

    – William Nylander was far and away the best player for the Leafs tonight while Alex was basically unnoticeable, which is further reminder that the Blackhawks trading Henri Jokiharju for the wrong Nylander.

    – Andersen had such a bad night, and the Leafs have had such a strange up-and-down goaltending season, that Geek Boy Dubas should not let Robin Lehner leave town if he knows what is good for his roster. Just give the Hawks your first round pick and move on with the season.

    – Hawks go again tomorrow, hosting the Jets. Until then.

  • Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Preview: Arkham City

    Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Preview: Arkham City

    vs.

    RECORDS: Hawks 22-20-6   Maple Leafs 25-16-7

    PUCK DROP: 6pm

    TV: NBCSN Chicago, NHL Network

    ALL DAY: Pension Plan Puppets 

    We’ve been doing this all season. The Hawks string together two or three wins, generally over bad teams, and look good in at least one of them, and a part of you wants to believe that something has clicked and just might go on a run to make the season interesting. They’re only four points out of a playoff spot, with only one team between them and that last wildcard spot, and you don’t even have to squint all that hard to make a case they could make a run at it. Especially when they’re chasing the Oilers, who are more guaranteed to have their intestines fall out than the Hawks. Vancouver and Arizona could also still make a thud.

    And then usually they get thwacked by a good team and we start this all over.

    So that’s what feels like is about to happen tonight, as the Hawks take their three wins against the Ducks, Sens, and Habs up against a real team. And the Leafs are the fully operational annoyance that they were forecasted to be. Casting off the shackles of Mike Babcock has had the effect that Kyle Dubas would have hoped, as Sheldon Keefe has helped everyone realize their joy again. The Leafs are more threatening, more dynamic, and quite a bit more scary now that Keefe has allowed them to “try shit.”

    Which shouldn’t have been all that hard. The Leafs still have perhaps the richest array of offensive talent in the league. There certainly isn’t a team that can match Matthews-Tavares down the middle at 1-2, and Alex Kerfoot has enjoyed the sweetheart spot that used to belong to Nazem Kadri. Nylander, Marner, Hyman, Johnsson, Kapanen certainly don’t lessen the threat on the wings. If they’re on song, they can put up a touchdown on you before you’ve finished your Timbo’s.

    But the problems for the Leafs are still the same, and they’re exacerbated now. Both Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin are out for weeks with a broken foot each, and this wasn’t a great defense to begin with. It’s lead them to give Travis Dermott top pairing minutes, and use Tyson Barrie as a defensive specialist, neither of which is a path you’d choose lest your life depended on it. Keefe has at least kept Cody Ceci away from the top pairing.

    And the goalie is far from sure either. The Leafs haven’t had a solid backup all season, as you saw evidenced by Michael Hutchinson KICK-ing every puck into his own net here in Chicago last time they met (get it?). But Fab Five Freddie Andersen has been bad for six weeks now, partly due to exhaustion. Also he’s Freddie Andersen, which is the definition of “just good enough to break your heart.”

    For the Hawks, Brandon Saad could suit up tonight, but that’s looking like a gametime decision. Brandon Hagel could make his NHL debut after being Rockford’s leading scorer. With optional morning skates we’re guessing along with all of you. Corey Crawford will get the start, with Lehner taking the back half of the double tomorrow night at home against Winnipeg.

    Once again, the Hawks have risen to at least the discussion of a playoff spot. But now they’ll be facing two teams that are either good or competing with them for that spot, and it’s a spot where they’ve generally fallen flat on their face. The Leafs aren’t invulnerable here, given the state of their defense and Andersen’s level right now. But getting into a track meet with this team almost certainly equals death, and yet the Hawks don’t have the structure generally to keep things tight. They did so for most of the game against the JV version of the Leafs in Montreal, but this is the real thing.

    They were able to hilariously add on to a Leafs crisis last year in T.O, even though Duncan Keith did his best to ruin all that work. It’s a big stretch here on the weekend and then Quenneville Bowl on Tuesday. The Hawks have to put it together now, so five of six points is minimum before we even consider believing they can actually take this to the wire.

    Plus, beating the Leafs is always fun.

  • Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Spotlight: Keefe Chief

    Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs Spotlight: Keefe Chief

    Certainly there’s more to Sheldon Keefe than just his work behind the bench with the Leafs. We discussed that here, though have come to learn later that some of it is no longer the case. Today we’re just here to discuss his work the past two months with the Leafs, and leave the rest for another day.

    What was clear before Keefe arrived is that life under Mike Babcock was miserable for the Leafs. Auston Matthews had just about completely tuned him and the staff out, and Hockey Night In Canada had a few chronicles of him looking dejected with them on the bench. He wasn’t alone, as Babcock’s simply abusive personal style and his stifling tactics had choked the life out of Toronto. So really anyone coming in, their simple task was to make the Leafs enjoy hockey again. That doesn’t sound all that hard when you consider the talent on offer here.

    Oh, and maybe not play Cody Ceci so much.

    So how has Keefe done? Whatever he is actually doing, he has certainly freed up the Leafs. Before Babcock’s firing, the Leafs had a positive possession-share but were below water in expected-goals to the tune of 47.9%. That should have never happened with the arsenal the Leafs have. Keefe obviously realized this, because since he took over the Leafs’ expected goals-percentage is 54.8, third best in the league behind Vegas and Tampa, the latter of which you might have noticed have lost like one game in the past two months.

    And as you might expect, the Leafs have improved their numbers by simply upping the offense. This is a team that has at least three scoring lines and should just be bludgeoning teams. Their attempts per 60 have only gone up about one per game, but their expected goals-for has gone from 2.14 under Babcock to 2.69 under Keefe. That’s a rise of 25%. Their scoring chances per 60 has risen at just about the same rate, so clearly Keefe has found a way to get the Leafs in more dangerous areas more often. Which against the quality of finishing the Leafs have, is death to most teams.

    What might really rankle Babcock is the Leafs have gotten better defensively as well, though that’s probably to do with having the puck more and creating better chances. But their expected goals-against has gone down from 2.33 under Babs to 2.22 now. Offense sometimes is the best defense?

    Luck of course plays a role, though Leafs followers would argue that a happier team is more prone to get the bounces, especially when they’re forcing things more as they are. The Leafs shot 7.8% under Babcock, and that’s risen to 9.6 under Keefe. The SV% has also gone up, from .909 to .916 at evens.

    The power play is also clicking a little better, with 19 goals in Keefe’s 25 games after 13 in Babs’s 23, and that might be a result of letting Matthews freelance a little more on it. The motion the Leafs get is akin to when the Sharks’ PP became self-aware a few years ago. They’re also getting that kind of movement at even strength, and there are very few teams that can live with that speed when it’s allowed to go wherever it wants.

    Of late, Keefe hasn’t been hesitant to shift things around. Matthews had spent most of his time earlier with William Nylander and Andreas Johnsson, and now Marner has replaced Nylander on the top line. Zach Hyman has replaced Johnsson. Considering their xGF% is 65% together, it’s clearly working.

    Keefe’s big tests are yet to come. He’ll be without both Jake Muzzin and Morgan Rielly for the next few weeks as both have broken a foot (how adorbs). And of course, no one’s going to care about anything until the Leafs get past the first round. Perhaps any coach could have lightened the mood simply by not being the overrated, raging asshole that Babcock apparently was. Still, the results are the results, and the Leafs certainly are a more fun bunch to watch and be around now.

  • Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

    Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

    Kyle Dubas – Rape-apologizing hedge-fund dork who eventually will get found out. Or the Leafs will win the Cup and he’ll have a statue and the entire hockey world will never stop telling you about his geniusness. Either way, we all lose. Just imagine what we’ll go through if Chayka’s Coyotes somehow got out of the West at the same time.

    Auston Matthews – Well, he’s a superstar now, because he’s gotten a coach fired. The mark of a true difference-maker. Also causes Canadian media to continually show their ass when discussing his “controversies.”

    Leafs Fans – You know it to be true. They’re praying the Lightning catch the Bruins, not so they can avenge their previous two playoff losses to Boston, but so they can add to them. They’re much happier flagellating themselves and making the world watch than cheering a winner. This is their natural state. If anything, the Raptors title only pushes them more toward it. Now they’re the only Toronto team to not have won while anyone was still alive. Their martyrdom can only grow. You watch.

     

  • Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

  • Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs: Lineups & How They Were Built

    Game #49 – Hawks vs. Maple Leafs: Lineups & How They Were Built

    Hawks 

    Notes: Even though the morning skate was optional the buzz was Crow will get a chance to double-up on his brilliance in Montreal…Hagel has been called up but not sure where or if he’ll slot in just yet or if he’s just an extra guy. If he does play, it’s likely to be ahead of Sikura…Saad was also rumored to have a chance to play, so if he does he’ll likely go with Toews and Kubalik and slot Caggiula down to the fourth line as well. Or maybe Cags will join DeBrincat and Dach, which makes more sense than Kampf…

    Maple Leafs

    Notes: Leafs didn’t skate this morning either, so this is how it looked on Thursday against the Flames…Engvall was hurt in that one but did return, so we think he’s in for this one as well…Tavares has five points in his last three games…Andersen has been struggling, with a .904 in December and a .893 in December. The Leafs are hot after a backup goalie to give him a breather…

  • Angry At Numbers – Penalty Kill Edition

    Angry At Numbers – Penalty Kill Edition

    Whenever the job-reaper comes for Jeremy Colliton, be it the middle of the season, in the summer, or never, he’s going to try and mount some defense if only to make himself more attractive for another job down the road. He doesn’t want to be Trent Yawney, y’know? And the first thing, maybe the only thing, he can point to as something that’s improved markedly from his first year to his second is the penalty kill.

    The Hawks currently are in the top-1o on the PK, which is a drastic improvement on the historically bad unit that befouled arenas and our TV sets last year. Now it would be easy to dismiss this improvement as merely and improvement in goaltending, and you can’t ignore that.

    This year the SV% on the kill is .892, third-best in the league. Last year it was .842, which was sixth-worst in the league. So yes, that’s a big difference. But it’s not only that.

    Overall, there are other improvements however. This year, the Hawks are giving up 97.4 attempts per 60 on the kill. Their xGA/60 on the kill is 6.33. Last year, those numbers were 104.5 and 8.1. Now, it’s hard to visualize or really understand those numbers, but a 25% reduction in expected goals against certainly is noticeable. The attempts against moves them from third-worst last year to middle of the pack this year, even if a reduction in attempts of merely 6% doesn’t really register.

    If it helps, the Hawks have gone from giving up 63 shots per 60 minutes on the kill to 56 now, which directly mirrors the attempts they’re giving up. So it’s not like they’re blocking shots that much more often, they’re not even giving the lanes to shoot. Which is good.

    On an individual level, there’s been improvement both in new players brought in and an uptick from those that were already here:

    xGA/60  This Year/Last Year

    Connor Murphy – 6.35/7.89

    Duncan Keith – 7.62/8.94

    David Kampf – 7.4/9.54

    Jonathan Toews – 6.00/8.96

    What has also helped is the players who weren’t here. Where Brent Seabrook led the team in shorthanded time-on-ice last year, that’s been replaced, or was, by Calvin de Haan. Ryan Carpenter in for the declining Marcus Kruger. Olli Maatta has replaced Carl Dahlstrom and Seabrook, and the one thing Maatta has been good at is on the kill.

    Speaking of Seabrook, it’s time to be mean.

    86.1/101.3   5.06/6.76

    Those are the differences in the Hawks PK’s CA/60 and xGA/60 after and before Seabrook was put on the shelf for the season. It’s only been 14 games, and any special team can go on a run for 14 games. I’M NOT SAYIN’ I’M JUST SAYIN’….

    So yeah, the goalies certainly have made a difference, but Colliton can claim to improved the overall system on the kill, and they certainly aren’t giving up shots from the middle nearly as much and are pushing things to the sides at a slower pace so they can get in the lanes. That’s something. It’s not enough but it’s something.

    Some others…

    37 in 37 (in a row?)

    That’s Jonathan Toews the past 37 games. We almost forgot that he only had two points in the first 11 games, where we really started to worry if he’d lost a step. He definitely was a half-step behind the play more than we’d ever seen before. And now he’s been averaging a point-per-game for nearly half a season, and is on pace for 66 points which would be just about what you’d expect. If he were to continue to be a point-per-game, it would be 73. And it’s surprising because A) he’s not lighting it up on the PP like he was last year and B) he hasn’t really been playing with any offensive dynamo. Saad and Kubalik are certainly not bad players, but they aren’t the dynamic forces that Kane or DeBrincat can be. So yeah, we’ll never worry again…until next October, obvi.

     

  • Game #48: Hawks 4, Canadiens 1 – Insert Spiderman Meme Here

    We know exactly what it feels like to be what the Habs were tonight…dominant in possession yet unable to capitalize on the power play and losing to a mediocre team. The difference is, the Hawks have excellent goaltending and Montreal most certainly did not. Although Crawford (great as he was) isn’t the only story tonight. Some fourth-line luck and decent special teams work did what they’re supposed to do, and were enough for a win. Let’s get to it:

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    –It’s hard to believe I’m writing this, but Zack Smith was the difference-maker tonight, proving that there really is a first time for everything. But hey, good for him, right? Early in the first, he and Drake Caggiula took advantage of Charlie Lindgren being Charlie Lindgren when there was a bad turnover behind the Habs net on the PK, and it resulted in Smith scoring a short-handed goal. Then Smith potted another (even strength) goal barely three minutes later, and it was undoubtedly the best period of his life. It’s easy to laugh at the situation, or laugh at the Habs for letting this bum score twice on them, but honestly it was downright refreshing to have someone different step up and score. Especially with this being the second of a back-to-back, having the fourth line eat up some minutes and be productive while doing so was exactly what was needed.

    –Related: when Drake Caggiula scores on you, you suck. Sorry, Lindgren, but it’s true.

    –On the other hand, Dominik Kubalik suddenly couldn’t buy a goal, and not for lack of trying. He had three shots, all of which would have been easy goals, well, last night or any game in the last little stretch here. They were those point-blank shots that make you wonder how it couldn’t possibly have gone in because given the laws of physics, it would seem much more likely that the puck would go in rather than stay out. In fact the top line as a whole struggled to find the back of the net, and it was when Caligula moved off the top line that he did end up scoring. It’s really not a big deal (who gives a shit if they don’t score in one game?), but my concern is that Coach Cool Youth Pastor will use this as proof that Kubalik-Toews-Kane isn’t the right combo for the top line because they didn’t score in the .02 seconds they had on the ice together. But here goes dumb ‘ole Caggiula scoring so he’ll be back on the top line by Saturday.

    –Adam Boqvist had a couple nice plays, although the stats were rather ugly for the night. In the first period he saved a goal when Crawford got lost in space and couldn’t make it back to the far post in time, and it was a good keep by Boqvist at the blue line that set up Top Cat’s power play goal in the second. He flashed some speed but finished with a miserable 24 CF%, so cherry pick whatever you want from that information. Our other tender-age star, Kirby Dach, had a no-good very bad game. In the first, he broke his stick on an power play attempt, right in the slot and you could practically hear the sad trombone sound, and he followed it up by taking a penalty a few seconds later to negate the advantage for the Hawks. Even beyond that, he fumbled shots, and his line with DeBrincat and Kampf only managed a 38 CF% at evens. Like the top line, it was nothing to get upset about–both Boqvist and Dach are going to have games like this–but it’s becoming worrisome that Dach has struggled for a couple weeks because he needs confidence and decent coaching at this impressionable stage. Right now he seems to be sorely lacking both.

    –Corey Crawford was outstanding as usual in Montreal. Admittedly he looked a little shaky in the first, particularly when he fell on his ass behind the net, all by himself, but it obviously only injured his pride. Losing his net when Boqvist had to bail him out was also concerning, but when it mattered most he was lights-out. He finished with a .970 SV%, and the one goal he did give up came in the midst of the Habs completely running over the Toews line, in one of the stretches where it felt like the Hawks were dispossessed for hours at a time (there were many of these). For all the Habs’ dominance in possession, he was up to the task the rest of the time with a number of excellent saves, and overcame some rebound issues early on. People can sing Lehner’s praises all they want, but Crawford is god.

    –It was good to see DeBrincat score, especially on a power play. Nothing earth-shattering, but let’s take what we can get.

    So far, so good on this road trip. Or train trip, which the broadcast wouldn’t shut the fuck up about. They honestly sounded like old-timey boosters describing the wonders of the new iron horse, as if millions of people don’t take trains every damn day (and as if professional soccer teams in Europe don’t use them constantly to get to games). Dumbasses. But hey, wins are wins, so onward and upward…

  • Game #48 – Hawks vs. Canadiens Preview: They’re A Bit Spiky, A Bit…French

    Game #48 – Hawks vs. Canadiens Preview: They’re A Bit Spiky, A Bit…French

    vs.

    RECORDS: Hawks 21-20-6   Canadiens 20-20-7

    PUCK DROP: 6:30

    TV: NBCSN Chicago

    GREAT BAGELS THERE: Habs Eyes On The Prize

    Hey did you hear the Hawks took a train from Ottawa to Montreal? Crazy, right? I mean, who does that? A train from city center to city center without dealing with an airport that neither town has near downtown? Other than like, every East Coast team between DC and Boston? Who ever heard of such a thing? Geniuses, these Hawks.

    Anyway, now that everyone apparently has survived this galaxy-brained tactic of taking, y’know, a train between two cities, the Hawks will use that advantage to take on their mirror image in a lot of ways in the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs are also an O6 franchise that can’t seem to get its dick out of a knot, are staring down their third-straight playoff-less season, and don’t seem to have any particular direction. Fuck, they even employ former Hawks assistant GM Marc Bergevin, who has done pretty much nothing since getting there 48 years ago or so it feels. But hey, he speaks French and everyone says he was a funny guy back in the day, so here he still is, serving up tepid stew as a hockey team once again.

    The difference is that the Canadiens actually do things well with no stars to make it count, where the Hawks don’t really do anything well amongst their skaters but their stars barely keep them relevant. Metrically, the Canadiens are one of the best teams around, as Claude Julien teams tend to be. If you go by Corsi-percentage, or expected goals percentage, or just attempts per game for and against, or expected goals for and against per game, you’ll find the Habs top-10 in all of them. They keep the puck and they create the better chances more often.

    What they can’t do is finish them. Les Habitants are bottom-1o in SH% at even-strength. Combine that with the fact they’re only getting middling goaltending from Carey Price this year, and they just can’t seem to turn these numbers into wins. Even a rise in SH% from their current 7.4% to just 8.0% would see eight more goals for them at evens, which can be six or more points in the standings. That would have them right on the wildcard hunt and breathing down the necks of Buds All Day for the last automatic spot in the Atlantic. You can’t miss the bear, people.

    The Habs are also pretty damn fast, even without Paul Byron and Brendan Gallagher as they’re currently injured. This is a team that can feature Artturi Lehkonen and Jesperi Kotkaniemi on its third line at times. It just doesn’t have what you’d call front-line scoring. That’s why Ilya Kovalchuk is now here, hilariously. Tomas Tatar is on the top line. Phillip Danault is awesome and has a serious case for the Selke this year, but he’s also not a top line center as the Canadiens have to use him. The hope would be that Nick Suzuki becomes that one day, but that’s a hell of a stretch.

    You used to think of Montreal as having a plodding defense behind these gnat forwards, but that’s not as much the case anymore. Ben Chiarot is at least an upgrade on Karl Alzner, and Cale Fleury and Victor Mete (which you have to pronounce as Jonah Jameson even if you have to mispronounce “MEH-te” as “MEAT”) on the third pairing certainly upgrade the mobility scales. Weber and Chariot have been great together, and Jeff Petry always makes it work despite being 198 years old (somehow he’s only listed as 32 but I’m sure that’s a lie).

    Price is only sporting a .908 this year, but the Habs have yet to locate a suitable backup for him so he’s playing too much and not all that well. If they were getting Price of four years ago, they’re almost certainly a playoff team. But they’re not, which leaves them seven points adrift and having four teams to leap to get there. Sound familiar? It’s like looking in a mirror…only…not.

    For the Hawks, the only change we should see is Corey Crawford starting in his hometown again, where he’s generally been brilliant. Crow carries a lifetime .954 against Montreal anywhere, and his last five appearances in the Bell Centre have seen him give up four goals total. Clearly he likes it there.

    The Hawks will be up against it on the back end of a back-to-back here, given how fast the Canadiens can play. A good time to remind everyone that though they won their last trip there in March, they also gave up 48 shots to do it and Crow got them all. Best not to repeat that. A track meet wouldn’t suit the Hawks here, though they could end up finishing more chances than the Habs do even if they give up more. Play this one a little more simple.

    It’s a busy end to the pre-bye schedule, as the Hawks will close with three-in-four after this, making a total of five games in eight days in four cities. And they need most of the points on offer if not all of them. This is what happens when you back yourself into corners like this. Allez.