Game #4 Preview Suite
Let’s jump ahead about two and a half years or so. Basically, the ’20-’21 season. It doesn’t really matter what the Hawks fortunes are then, though it will have an influence. During that season, barring a major injury before, both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will play their 1,000th regular season game.
Now imagine the build-up to both. How long do you think it is? A week? Maybe more? Certainly more than a few days. Clearly, a couple national publications will get in on the fun. There will be reminiscing of the Hawks’ glory days, and a rehashing of the debate about where they rank in the pantheon of all-time great teams. Certainly it will be an event, two of them actually, and assuming you can ignore the particularly grossness of one of them, you won’t be able to miss it. The team’s best ever winger and perhaps it’s second or third greatest center getting a silver stick.
So why isn’t there more of a buzz about the player who was more important than both of them?
Duncan Keith will play his 1,000th game on Saturday night. He is the best Hawks d-man of all-time. Of this there can be little debate. Two Norris Trophies, a Conn Smythe (unanimously won, and really should have been a second for him after 2010), two gold medals. There is no Hawk who can come close to matching this haul of silverware. Three rings to go along with it, as well, and a couple more Conference Final appearances.
You could only make an argument for Chris Chelios, really. Two Norris Trophies as a Hawk, a World Cup winner’s medal, one Conference Final appearance and one Final appearance. And folks, let me tell ya, Chris Chelios is not Duncan Keith.
Some may bristle at the notion that Keith was the most important Hawk. You can if you’d like, except you’d be wrong. When Keith was good, the Hawks were good. It was that simple. When he was quite simply Daredevil right in front of his blue line, the Hawks did no worse than a conference final in ’09, ’10, ’13, ’14, ’15. When his play dropped off, so did the Hawks’. Patrick Kane has played his best hockey the past three seasons. The Hawks have three playoff wins. When Keith played his best hockey, they were at least in touching distance of the Cup.
I know why Keith hasn’t gotten even the buzz that Seabrook did. Seabrook’s night came at the end of a lost season, and the Hawks needed anything to glom onto to make fans feel good. Keith’s night comes at the beginning of the season when the Bears are still very much on everyone’s mind and interest in the team is low overall.
Seabrook has always been more media friendly than Keith. Keith has been prickly at times, outright dismissive at others, and is still the only Hawk who has occasionally raised a middle finger to John McDonough’s media policies (such as always wearing a Hawks hat during scrums, and this only endears him to me even more). Keith has a couple ugly suspensions on his record (he should have gotten way more than he did for trying to behead Charlie Coyle). Though I suppose Seabrook trying to turn David Backes into plaster in ’14 is a blotch as well (though it’s something we’ve all dreamed of, and strangely led to the best two games of Sheldon Brookbank‘s career. The world is indeed strange).
We probably can’t ignore that Keith was somewhat front and center of the first off-ice controversy of this Hawks run, you may remember it as “Patrick Sharp And His Lack Of Traveling Pants,” though he was more an innocent bystander. Tellingly, it was Seabrook who took the lead on trying to quash that in the dressing room. Keith remained silent, which is basically how he’s always preferred it.
Keith has never been the pivot in the Hawks’ ad campaigns or marketing drives. He’s left that to Toews and Kane or Sharp. It just hasn’t mattered to him. He’s had his charity and his fundraising nights, but even those were a little more underplayed than Brian Campbell‘s or others’. That’s another reason you don’t hear as much as you might think about his upcoming milestone.
But on the ice, Keith was the Hawks when they were rolling over the league night-in and night-out. It was his ability to step in front of traffic before the line that was the root of their entire game. To turn around the play before it ever got dangerous, and get the puck quickly to the forwards in space and with the opposition caught.
Keith’s unnatural quickness and physical condition allowed him to do things no other d-man could get away with, and to do it for 25 minutes a night at least. He could travel outside the circles to dispossess a forward or chase behind the net, because A. he was on them so quickly he almost always won the puck before anyone had time to calculate what to do and B. he could recover in time to get away with not doing so. Those skills have gone now, but they were vital to everything the Hawks did.
What’s funny about Keith is that he’s not nearly as talented as some. He’s never been a great passer. He’s nowhere near the puck-handler that Karlsson or Subban are. You know about his shooting skills. He’s not particularly big, though he’s far stronger than you’d think. What he was wasn’t just fast, but fast-twitch like no one else. Keith’s entire game, his instincts, were basically a constant, “Fuck it, I’m going.” And he’d get there. Every damn time.
He was the anchor for the only three Cup teams almost all of us have ever known. The picks and development of Henri Jokiharju, Adam Boqvist, Nicholas Beaudin…are all meant to try and replicate what Keith was.
And it’s not like Keith’s dead. He’s looked better given a partner who can do some of the stuff he used to, when it’s not dependent on only him to do it. He’s 35 now, and while he’s always been a conditioning freak, who knows how much longer he wants to do this. He’s backed off his claims of wanting to play until he’s 45, though given his fitness he probably could have made a run at it.
Perhaps the most rewarding thing for fans is that we got to watch the whole arc of Keith. He didn’t come up anywhere near the finished product like Toews or Kane or even Seabrook was close to being. Those first two years under Trent Yawney or Denis Savard, it was like watching Nightcrawler on a coke binge (what can I say? I’m in a Marvel mood. Blame the Spider-Man game). He was flashing everywhere, and most of the time is was where he wasn’t supposed to be. And he was doing it in front of no one. You’d see an amazing play about once per game, and then he’d spend the next period on the wrong side of the ice pointed the wrong way and all four of his limbs flailing away like he was drowning in sewage. Which he mostly was.
Given a real coach though, who only had to put light harnessing on it all, and Keith took off. Suddenly that raw power and speed was pointed in the right direction, without taking away from it, and no one could live with it. We saw the whole arc. Keith went from uncontrollable, festering energy to the league’s best. So did the whole team.
Keith’s the best to ever do it in the Red and White from the blue line. He doesn’t chase or probably want the acclaim. But he’s going to get it here. He should be getting it from everywhere.
So thank you, Duncs. None of this happens without you, whether you care or not if anyone knows that.
First Screen Viewing
Maple Leafs vs. Stars – 7:30
When you give up 11 goals to the Senators and Hawks combined, you basically become must-see TV for both entertainment and comedic reasons. And the Stars at least have a first line that can do damage, and no goalies to speak of either. So it should be a hot time in Ol’ Texas tonight. The Stars have won their first two games by a combined 8-1 score, putting five past the Jets on Saturday night. It’s mostly been the top line of Jamie Benn-Tyler Seguin-Alex Radulov, because of course. But hey, the Hawks’ top line just went off on the Leafs so why shouldn’t they? If the Blue and White surrender more than three goals we can look for mass self-defenestrations in Toronto. And really, who would miss them?
Second Screen Viewing
Sharks v. Flyers – 6pm
I don’t know how you get stomped 4-0 to the Islanders but the Sharks turned the trick yesterday afternoon. Maybe spending an afternoon in Brooklyn was just too depressing for them? Either that or they just got goalie’d. Anyway, they’ll try and recover at the Yo! Flyera! home opener tonight, where the star of the show is clearly going to be Gritty. The Flyera put it on the Knights in the opener, but then got thwacked by the Avs on Saturday night. There’s been no shortage of goals in their games either, which has been the trend league-wide. The colors in this one are enough to get your eyeballs’ attention.
Other Games
Canucks vs. Hurricanes – 6pm
Avalanche vs. Jackets – 6pm
Flames vs. Predators – 7pm
Kings vs. Jets – 7pm
It’s just easier that way.
It would be silly to draw any massive conclusions from just three games. Even 10 wouldn’t be nearly enough. We don’t know anything about the Hawks yet, except that they’ve been entertaining as hell, and Brandon Manning and Cam Ward are terrible. The first is something of a surprise. The latter two are depressingly not.
But one thought I’ve had over these three games, pretty much thanks to the bonkers trio of efforts that Jonathan Toews has been able to put together, is that when the Hawks’ top six is out there, or the top-pairing (usually at the same time), the Hawks aren’t a bad team. Their underlying numbers are simply surreal, they’re scoring almost all of the goals, and they’ve been fun to watch.
What’s clear is that so far, Joel Quenneville knows this as well. Which is why he’s basically only used his fourth-line when he absolutely has to, and even then we can be pretty sure his ass is puckered up tight. I can’t say I know that, because quite frankly I don’t want to be considered an expert on the state of Joel Quenneville’s ass-elasticity.
It’s a sound strategy, because the fourth line has been getting their dicks knocked in the dirt on the reg. While every other forward on the roster has gotten at least 35 minutes of ice-time in the three games, none of the players who are on the fourth have gotten even 25.
This has always been a debate in hockey lately. With TV timeouts as they are and the shape players are in, can you ride your better players more and leave the fourth-line to be something you only close your eyes, point at to go out there, and tell your assistants to tell you when it’s over? Sure, it’s a real advantage when you can use your fourth-line for real purposes, and a staple of past Hawks’ champions was that their fourth-line was actually taking checking line duties thanks to the unicorn nature of Marcus Kruger. Well, he’s on a wing now staring at SuckBag Johnson quizzically, so that’s not an option at the moment.
The defense has been more spread out. In terms of percentage, only Seabrook and Manning are getting less than 30%, with Keith and Jokiharju gobbling up the extra at 37% and 35%k respectively. This is mostly due to Seabrook and Manning getting the dungeon shifts, as they’ve only started a third of their shifts in the offensive zone and mostly have been restricted to their own. And while it might not seem like it, the Hawks have been starting most shifts in the other end. No, I don’t get it either.
The forwards are a little more skewed in percentages, as you might guess. As a frame of reference, obviously your pivot points is 25%, if you were to divide all even-strength time into quarters, one for each line. Well, Kane and Schmaltz are at 34% and 31%, with Saad at 29%. Toews and DeBrincat are at 28% or thereabouts, as Dominik Kahun has gotten some shifts off here and there. The third-line is right at the 25% mark, or just a tick below, and the fourth-line is all below 20% of the time at even-strength possible.
The Hawks are top-heavy. We know this. What I was curious about is how teams that have just accented to their top six as much and how they’ve done while doing so.
Last season, in terms of time-on-ice-percentage (again, the portion of even-strength time available given to a certain player), Connor McDavid was the leader at 33%. This isn’t a huge surprise, given that he’s the league’s best player and all. The problems there is that the Oilers sucked. After him it was Henrik Zetterberg. And yep, the Wings sure did suck as well. Up next was Alex Radulov. And the Stars might not have sucked, but they probably had the “S,” “U,” and most of the “C” in “suck” lined up. Anze Kopitar was next on the list, and though the Kings did actually make the playoffs for four minutes, they weren’t any good either. Patrick Kane is after that, and well, we don’t need to finish this thought.
Rounding out the top-10 last year in TOI% are Artemi Panarin, Sidney Crosby, Nikita Kucherov, Rickard Rakell, and Sasha Barkov. All of those players are on good teams! All of the top-10 clicked in at 31% or more.
Going back two seasons ago, Patrick Kane led the league in TOI% at 33.8%. McDavid was next, followed by Mark Scheifele, Ryan Getzlaf, Zetterberg, Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall, Vincent Trochek, John Tavares, and Nikita Kucherov. Some duds in there, but mostly playoff teams.
Of course, this really only tells us what happens when a team leans on one or two players a ton and not a top six. But clearly these players are bringing top six lines along with them for their extra shifts.
A quirk of this category is that in the past five years, Patrick Kane owns the three of the five largest percentages. The fourth-largest share of shifts was given to Jonathan Marchessault last year, which made sense because all that line did was score.
We’ll have to dive deeper into this as the season goes on and Joel Quenneville’s strategy becomes clearer. What’s obvious is that having to basically get your top six out there as much as possible isn’t ideal, but you can be a playoff team with it. What you probably can’t be is a Cup team, but no one’s expecting that around here.
And we’re back with the season’s first edition of Atop the Sugar Pile. For those of you who need a refresher, this is our recurring look at the good, the bad, and the just mildly mediocre in the Hawks universe at a given moment. Only three games into the season we have a very small sample size right now, but why should patience, timing, or logic dictate what we do around here? Fuck that. Without further ado, let’s get to it:
The Dizzying Highs
Jonathan Toews: Well, well, well…didn’t I tell you just a couple weeks ago that Toews is not the washed-up has-been people were worried he was deteriorating into? The answer is yes, yes I did. And it’s probably the only accurate prediction I’ll have all season. Now to be clear, I said he’d have a better year, not an amazing year, but with the way things are going he could end up proving me wrong all the same (and the accurate prediction count will go back to zero). So far Toews is tied for the team lead in scoring with 6 points, 5 of which are goals plus a hat trick. He’s gained at least one step back, maybe more (although it’s early days still and we’ll see how well he maintains that). And beyond just raw scoring, he’s doing things like out-muscling defenders and keeping the puck in the zone, as happened in the Toronto game when he created the possession and passing that led to Top Cat’s thing of beauty. With Alex DeBrincat and Dominik Kahun, in fact, his line has a 54.8 CF% (evens), and Toews himself is sporting a 56.3 (same). Will he actually stay on pace for 80+ points? No, that seems extremely unlikely. But he’s got the speed, the possession, and the scoring that we need, and he’s starting the season in exactly the right way.
The Terrifying Lows
Brandon Manning: Yeah, you knew who would be in this category. This guy is a clueless oaf who should be toweling off cars at the Fast Eddie’s down the street from me. But instead he’s playing professional hockey for REASONS. He was personally responsible for multiple goals in the Ottawa game. His possession numbers are wretched: 44.8 CF% and a CF Rel that’s hovering around -15. And it’s not even that he himself sucks—he’s also the worst possible partner for Brent Seabrook. Nachos needs someone who covers for his shortcomings, not someone whose own incompetence exacerbates those shortcomings. Seabrook had a crucial goal in the first game to tie it in the third, but take a guess where his other numbers are at. That’s right, they’re in the toilet. And Manning had nothing to do with the goal, so he can’t bask in any reflected glory there. At one point on Sunday during the Leafs game he actually skated into Seabrook at center ice. How do you not see an ass that large in the middle of the ice and at least maneuver around it? No, Brandon Manning is like the cone of ignorance where Bart brings down the intelligence of all the kids around him. Fuck this guy.
The Creamy Middles
Henri Jokiharju: One could argue that HJ belongs in the Dizzying Highs, and indeed he’s performed better than expectations and those expectations were already pretty damn high. But just as his youth has positives like speed and exuberance, it also has drawbacks like inexperience. And so it has been: he’s leading the team in possession with a 69.2 CF% (NICE), and also a team-leading CF% Rel of 21.8, although it should be noted that he’s starting nearly three-quarters of the time in the offensive zone. And to top it all off he’s got 5 assists, so he’s managing to be a quality defensive player while making offensive contributions like everyone hoped/expected. But, at moments he has been outgunned, such as a couple times in the opening game and when getting smoked by John Tavares on the Leafs’ third goal on Sunday. However, he’s, you know, playing defense as is his job description, and that’s more than we can say for some of the jamokes we’re stuck with. HJ will at times be a dizzying high, and at times he’ll be terrifyingly low, but at least to start he’s comfortably in a good middling place.
The Rockford IceHogs, AHL affiliate of the Chicago Blackhawks, elected to forgo preseason exhibition games heading into the 2018-19 season. Ergo, this past weekend’s action in Cleveland was the first in which the piglets faced off against another team.
The results were a bit underwhelming. Rockford dropped two games to the Monsters to open the season.
According to a tweet by IceHogs broadcaster Joseph Zakrzewski, the Hogs coaching staff felt that the NHL exhibitions were enough, citing a large number of players in Hawks training camp this fall. It’s not like the Hogs have a rigorous preseason schedule most seasons; usually Rockford has a game or two against their AHL neighbors in Chicago and Milwaukee.
IceHogs head coach Jeremy Colliton had a full week of workouts with the bulk of his opening-night roster, so the lack of preseason games is hardly a smoking gun. Rockford, despite what the franchise accomplished last spring, is still a very young group of players. There are quite a few new faces, especially on defense, to work into the lineup.
With a few notable exceptions this weekend, the passing wasn’t particularly sharp in Cleveland. Friday’s 4-1 loss was closer than the score indicated. Saturday, the 5-2 result spoke for itself. The Monsters really got the best of Rockford in the transition game. The Hogs effort wasn’t terrible, but Cleveland was the better team on the ice both games.
While it is fair to question the decision to skip a preseason game or two, it isn’t as if this is a move that will sink the 2018-19 campaign. If the Hogs are to enjoy success rivaling that of a year ago, they will have to develop some chemistry. That’s going to take some time. How much time will be a big factor in how the season progresses for Rockford.
Jordan Maletta Retiring
One recent acquisition who had been missing from the Blackhawks and IceHogs training camps was recently acquired forward Jordan Maletta. Picked up from Arizona in trade this past summer, Maletta was not medically cleared to play this fall after an injury-filled season with Cleveland and Tuscon. Chicago put the 23-year-old Maletta through waivers and the two parties mutually terminated his contract.
Maletta battled a hand injury last year; apparently the issue is is of a career-ending nature. It’s too bad, firstly because it stinks for a young player to have to shut it down at this stage of his development. Secondly, I think Maletta could have potentially added a dimension to the IceHogs that they could have used.
Maletta showed in his rookie season with Cleveland that he could contribute offensively and play a power game. It would have been interesting to see how he would have fit in with Rockford and how he might have contributed.
Mind Made Up On Iacopelli?
The lineup in the two games in Cleveland was identical, save for the net, where Kevin Lankinen made his AHL debut Friday, followed by Collin Delia getting the start Saturday. The scratches both games included defensemen Blake Hillman and Dennis Gilbert, injured forward William Pelletier…and second-year pro Matheson Iacopelli.
The former Western Michigan skater seems to be approaching a crossroads in the Blackhawks organization. He found ice time hard to come by in his rookie year despite possessing an above average shot. Iacopelli is an offensive player who does not seem to have a place on a scoring line.
I’m not casting any proclamations on the kid’s work ethic or attitude. Perhaps Colliton is going to work Iacopelli into a line that can utilize his strengths. The fact is that two of Rockford’s AHL signings, Terry Broadhust and Henrik Samuelsson, are in the lineup ahead of Iacopelli. When Pelletier is healthy, he’s definitely in the lineup ahead of Iacopelli.
The 24-year-old right wing has shown he can fill a net. He had 11 goals in 50 games in Rockford to go with the nine he put up in ten games with the Indy Fuel. Iacopelli needs to show he can play at both ends and at the pace Colliton likes. He just may running out of time and opportunity to do that.
Roster Moves
After backing up Cam Ward in Chicago’s Thursday night’s game in Ottawa, Delia was re-assigned to Rockford Friday following the Hogs loss to Cleveland. Matt Tomkins was assigned to the Indy Fuel in the corresponding move.
Recaps
Friday, October 5-Cleveland 4, Rockford 1
Rockford drew first cord but the Monsters broke open a tie game in the third period and bested the IceHogs in the season opener for both teams.
Shortly after holding off a two-man Monsters advantage in the latter half of the first period, Rockford found itself up a skater on a delayed penalty. Cleveland’s Calvin Thurkauf got tangled up with Viktor Ejdsell. Thurkauf dropped his gloves but Ejdsell didn’t bite, choosing to skate with his teammates into the offensive zone.
Luc Snuggerud found Ejdsell at the right dot. In turn, Ejdsell sent a frozen rope to the blade of Matthew Highmore at the left post. The back door was wide open; Highmore united rubber and twine at 17:11 of the opening frame to give the IceHogs a 1-0 lead.
Cleveland knotted the score early in the second period. Zac Dalpe out muscled Snuggerud and Lucas Carlsson for the puck along the end boards behind the Hogs net. Dalpe threw the puck out to an open Eric Robinson, who beat Rockford goalie Kevin Lankinen. Through two periods, the teams were tied at a goal apiece.
The Monsters took a 2-1 lead at the 3:26 mark of the third with a bullet of a snap shot by Kevin Stenlund, who took a neutral zone pass from Nathan Gerbe, skated into the Rockford zone and fired past Lankinen from the high slot. Cleveland got a key insurance goal later in the period when Vitaly Abramov brought the puck into the offensive zone.
Rockford’s defenders gave the swift forward some extra space, which proved problematic when Abramov skated to the right dot and worked a give and go with Michael Prepavessis. Taking the return pass, Abramov sent a high shot to the right corner of the Hogs net, making it 3-1 Monsters at 15:14 of the final frame. Cleveland added an empty-net goal from the stick of Justin Scott a few minutes later to close out the scoring.
Former Hogs goalie Jean-Francois Berube greeted his old teammates with a 24-save performance to pick up the win. Kevin Lankinen made his AHL debut in net for Rockford and stopped 18 of the 21 shots he faced.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura (A)-Terry Broadhurst
Anthony Louis-Jordan Schroeder (A)-Viktor Ejdsell
Matthew Highmore-Jacob Nilsson-Dylan Sikura
Henrik Samuelsson-Graham Knott-Nathan Noel
Andrew Campbell (A)-Carl Dahlstrom
Joni Tuulola-Darren Raddysh
Luc Snuggerud-Lucas Carlsson
Kevin Lankinen
Power Play (0-1)
D. Sikura-Schroeder-T. Sikura-Samuelsson-Raddysh
Highmore-Ejdsell-Louis-Broadhurst-Dahlstrom
Penalty Kill (Monsters were 0-3, including 56 seconds of 5-on-3 time)
Highmore-Nilsson-Dahlstrom-Campbell
Fortin-Knott-Carlsson-Tuulola
T. Sikura-Broadhurst-Snuggerud-Raddysh
Saturday, October 6-Cleveland 5, Rockford 2
Five unanswered Cleveland goals erased an early Hogs lead and then some, sending the piglets back to Rockford on a two-game losing streak.
The IceHogs had a pair of power play opportunities in the first period. On the second, the Sikura brothers gave Rockford a 1-0 lead at the 13:53 mark. Dylan and Tyler went back-and-forth with the puck, culminating on Dylan centering to Tyler in front of the Monsters net. The redirect got past Cleveland goalie Brad Theissen and into the cage to put the IceHogs ahead.
Circumstances turned following the power play goal. Less than 30 seconds later, Eric Robinson sent a shot toward the Rockford goal. The puck glanced off the stick of Carl Dahlstrom and got the best of Hogs goalie Collin Delia to tie the score.
Less than a minute after Robinson’s goal, a turnover behind the Rockford net wound up in the Rockford net. Alex Broadhurst collected the loose puck and hit Zac Dalpe skating to the left post. The shot beat Delia under his glove to make it 2-1 Cleveland at 15:31 of the first.
Late in the frame, Matthew Highmore was sent off for a slashing penalty. It took just a moment for the Monsters to build on their advantage. Robinson got the puck in the high slot and went high on Delia. The resulting goal gave Cleveland a 3-1 advantage with nine seconds remaining in the period.
Rockford was the victim of some good luck/bad luck early in the second period after a Justin Scott wrister from the slot made it over Delia’s shoulder. The shot clanged off the crossbar but bounced off of Cleveland’s Kole Sherwood and into the net. Just 2:48 into the period, the Monsters lead was 4-1.
Late in the second, Broadhurst and Dalpe struck again. The two got an odd man rush started after Viktor Ejdsell lost his footing while attempting to hold in a clearing attempt. Luc Snuggerud was the lonely defender; he forced Broadhurst to pass but Dalpe let fly from the slot and sent it past Delia’s glove for a 5-1 advantage at 18:37 of the second.
It was largely academic in the final 20 minutes, though the Hogs put up 14 shots on goal and found the net in the eighth minute. The score was set up by Jordan Schroeder, who chased down a high clearing pass in the neutral zone and made a beeline for the Monsters zone.
Schroeder skated down the left half boards, behind the Cleveland net, and back up the right boards before backhanding a pass to Lucas Carlsson near the top of the left circle. The rookie defenseman wound up and slapped home his first AHL goal over Theissen’s blocker at 7:50 to close out the scoring.
Delia, who arrived in town the night before after being re-assigned to the IceHogs, gave up five goals on 31 Cleveland shots.
Lines (Starters in italics)
Matthew Highmore-Jacob Nilsson-Dylan Sikura
Alexandre Fortin-Tyler Sikura (A)-Terry Broadhurst
Anthony Louis-Jordan Schroeder (A)-Viktor Ejdsell
Henrik Samuelsson-Graham Knott-Nathan Noel
Joni Tuulola-Darren Raddysh
Andrew Campbell (A)-Carl Dahlstrom
Luc Snuggerud-Lucas Carlsson
Collin Delia
Power Play (1-4)
D. Sikura-Schroeder-T. Sikura-Samuelsson-Raddysh
Highmore-Ejdsell-Louis-Broadhurst-Dahlstrom
Penalty Kill (Monsters were 1-4)
Highmore-Nilsson-Dahlstrom-Campbell
Fortin-Knott-Carlsson-Tuulola
T. Sikura-Broadhurst-Snuggerud-Raddysh
What’s Next?
Colliton has all week to prepare the IceHogs for opening play at the BMO Harris Bank Center. The home part of Rockford’s schedule commences on Saturday night when the defending Western Conference champs, the Texas Stars, come to town. On Sunday, the IceHogs host the Hershey Bears.
I’ll have a preview of this weekend’s action coming up in what I hope will be a regular Friday post, circumstances allowing. Until then, follow me @JonFromi for thoughts on the IceHogs all season long.
We can’t say it wasn’t entertaining. Tonight’s game was an example of all that is good, all that is potentially great, and all that is unbelievably shitty about this team. This whole late-comeback thing is not a sustainable game plan, but it certainly kept it exciting. Let’s do this:
–It’s amazing how much fun a fast-paced game with talented offensive players can be, isn’t it? The first period was a meth-infused, back-and-forth affair with a total of 4 goals. Granted, it was much more fun when the Hawks were the only ones scoring, but it’s not like we can really be surprised that the Leafs started connecting. Jonathan Toews had his fifth goal early in the period even though it really looked like he knocked it in with a stick above the crossbar (I’m glad to be wrong about the particular call but I cannot lie, that’s what it looked like to me). Top Cat’s goal on the feed from Keith to Kahun was an absolute thing of beauty. And it happened because Toews stole the puck at the blue line and kept it in the zone. The first half of the first period was probably the best the Hawks have played so far this season, and it was downright exhilarating.
–AND THEN WHAT HAPPENED? The Leafs matched the Hawks’ speed and the Matthews line started doing what they do. But fine, whatever, we went in the second period tied, not a huge shock. The real problem was that in the second they came out flat and squandered a double minor with not even one shot on goal. Not. One. Shot. In four minutes of power play time. They couldn’t make a zone entry to save their lives, nor did they set up any plays based on simple logic, much less a well-designed plan. The Hawks had nearly 60% of possession in the first, and in the second that cratered to a 43 CF%. John Hayden managed to just barely squeak the puck over the line but even that felt like a mix of desperate and lucky.
–Things seemed a little better to start the third, but John Tavares eventually just outplayed our two-bit excuses for defensemen. I seriously lost count of how many goals Jan Rutta was on the ice for, but it was at least two or three of them, including on Tavares’ third goal. Rutta was screening his own goalie while just watching Tavares walk in. It was painful. He ended the night with a 43.2 CF% and a CF Rel of -15. I mean, is Brandon Davidson really a step down from this?
–Rutta was terrible but let’s not forget about resident asshat Brandon Manning. What kills me is that the broadcast team was drooling over him, so it’s clear the organ-I-zation loves him and is pushing this bullshit narrative. What also kills me is that he scored, which you know will provide Q with enough cover to keep playing this moron. In the on-the-bench interview with Ulf he basically leaked that they’re trying to re-teach Manning to be less of a sack of crap, which is mind-boggling to think the Hawks think this is their best option. I honestly wish he hadn’t scored because, well, we lost anyway, and it maybe would have helped get him the fuck off the ice and into the press box, even just a little bit more quickly. Also, the Leafs cannot pretend to be an elite team when Brandon fucking Manning scores on them.
–In the battle of D-list goalies, LOCAL GUY Garret Sparks was slightly better, with an .806 SV% while Cam Ward had a laughable .794. Ward made some saves that definitely kept the Hawks in the game, such as in the second when Manning stupidly iced the puck because he can’t identify the color red apparently, and we had total schlubs in against the Matthews line and he had to make a flurry of saves. Again in the third he had some point-blank stops that kept it close. Until he gave up another goal, and then they tied it, and he gave up yet another one, and another…you get the point. I’m not pinning this all on Ward–in fact those face-meltingly bad numbers don’t really tell the whole story and oh yeah our defense blows. Did I mention that? But I have a hard time believing that Forsberg is any worse (is he worse? Could that be true? God help us) and because of that whole defense blowing thing I just mentioned, any goalie is going to have to bail us out. It does not bode well.
–OK, there is one piece of good news on the defensive front: Henri Jokiharju had a 72.7 CF% and has assisted on like 18 goals or something already. He deserves some power play time too because, come on, it’s clown shoes, give the kid a chance.
This one was a roller coaster, no doubt about it. If we can score six goals against an also-suspect defense we should be able to pull out some wins…but that same song of shitty defense, shitty power play just won’t stop…
Line of the Night: “He’s got some habits from other teams that we don’t…we don’t play that…” –Ulf Samuelsson, describing their impressive coaching efforts to make Brandon Manning less of a turd
Photo credit: Chicago Tribune
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RECORDS: Maple Leafs 1-1-0 Hawks 2-0-0
PUCK DROP: 6:00 PM CT
TV: CSN Chicago
HOW DOES THIS AFFECT THEM?: Pension Plan Puppets
If you were going through a tournament of the most insufferable franchises in sports, it probably wouldn’t take too long to end up with this matchup in the “Hockey Region.” If you spend more than five minutes scrolling through Hockey Twitter (and you shouldn’t, it’s bad for your health), you’re going to see these two teams come up most frequently – the Leafs because there are too fucking many of their shithead fans on the internet who do not shut up ever, and the Hawks because everyone hates them because they were really good for a really long time. Die the hero, become the villain, etc. etc.
The most exhausting and insufferable shit that has already been tossed around in the past, and you will probably hear at least once tonight, (and more if you for some reason watch the Canadian broadcast, which is a national one because of course it is) is that this could be some kind of torch passing from the Hawks to the Leafs because the Leafs have a young core with their key guys still having their labor exploited on their entry level contracts and that’s how the Hawks built their empire and the Leafs are using the same blueprint and blah blah blah I am going to fuckin’ puke.
The annoying part about that shitty narrative is that the parallels keep lining up, most recently with the Leafs making their big splashy free agent signing in John Tavares, which you could equate to the Hawks bringing in Marian Hossa prior to 2009-10, though it’s not even up for debate that JT91 is a better and more impactful signing. There was once an inkling of hope around these parts that StanBo and company would get in on the Tavares train, but we never get what we want because we’re all good people at this website.
The Leafs are even in the process of the RFA fuck up parallel as well. We all remember well the Kris Versteeg situation that ended up giving this site it’s new namesake, and while Toronto hasn’t stuck their dick in a fax machine quite yet (but don’t put it past Kyle Dubas) they still haven’t stopped measuring it in negotiations with William Nylander, who wants to be paid like the good-as-shit player that he is instead of signing some bullshit “bridge contract” and risk getting hurt and losing out on the money. Nylander kinda has the Leafs over a barrel because he is such a huge part of what they’re trying to do there, but the Leafs have him over an even bigger barrel and in a much more vulnerable position because of the NHL’s labor exploitation contract and free agency rules. If I was Stan Bowman I would be annoying the shit out of Dubas until he gave in and traded Nylander to Madison St., but it’s not like the Hawks really even have anything to send the other way that would be worth more than a hearty chuckle when proposed in negotiations.
The most annoying thing about the Maple Leafs at the present time, though, is that they are actually, it pains me to say, going to be really good. Yes they got their shit pumped by Ottawa last night and I’m sure their fans have tried drowning themselves in some maple syrup as a result, but on paper the Leafs forward group (when they get Nylander back) is probably the best in the NHL. They have two of the top-10 centers in the damn league, and even though Nazem Kadri is a giant fuckstick, when he’s your 3C you’re in a really good spot. They have some holes on defense, but we saw Pittsburgh go back-t0-back with leftover popsicle sticks on their second pairing a few years ago. And the good players that the Leafs have are fun to watch. Auston Matthews is almost appointment television, Mitch Marner is a nasty playmaker, and we already know what Tavares is capable of.
So, yeah, the torch passing bullshit is annoying as fuck, and I don’t wanna hear it or think about it or deal with it. But the Leafs might really have something here, and while that’s bad news for anyone’s Twitter timeline, it could be entertaining as hell, even if they shitpump the Hawks tonight.
Game #3 Preview Suite
While there are still some bonfires to put out around the GTA (they call it that, we don’t) after the signing of John Tavares, whether the Leafs actually go where they’ve never gone in our lifetimes or are left holding their dick in their hand in the first round again is still going to be based on what they can get from the blue line. Because at first glance, it’s just not up to snuff to get past Boston or Tampa or possibly both in the first two rounds (or maybe even a spiky Florida side).
For a few years now, because they don’t have anyone else, Leafs fans and media have tried to tell everyone (or just convince themselves) that Morgan Rielly not only was enough, but is going to be a Norris candidate. That’s unlikely, as these days it takes something like 75 points from the back to even get voters to notice, and Rielly’s 54 last year were by far a career-high. And they were mostly due to a spike in his power play assists. Seeing as how the Leafs have been toying with the idea of five forwards on the first power play unit, he’ll be hard-pressed to match that again.
The Leafs do have something of a secret weapon a little further down the depth chart, and that’s Travis Dermott. His numbers aren’t going to pop off the page. He only had 13 points last year. He’s not going to get any power play time. He’s hanging out on the third-pairing with a nameless collection of vowels Igor Ozhiganov, or will be dragging around spare tire veterans like Martin Marincin or whatever Justin Holl is.
It won’t be anything new to Dermott. Last year, he was given the resistance-training that is being partnered with Roman Polak. Remember those parachute-drills various Hawks returning from injury used to do? It’s like that but also with 25-pound weights affixed to your ankles. And Polak farts on you the whole time.
Even with that. Dermott put up some of the more impressive underlying numbers in the league. He had the fourth-best relative-Corsi of any d-man in the league that played over 500 minutes. Better than Brent Burns or Dougie Hamilton. He had the sixth-best expected goals percentage relative to his team as well. When he was on the ice, the Leafs were on the right side of it, even with Polak and his technicolor yawn back there.
Now, you can take some of those numbers with a grain of salt. That category can be populated by third-pairing bum-slayers. Erik Gustafsson had some of the best marks in those categories as well.
But one of the things that separates the good teams from the league’s majority of “bleh” is that they get more from third lines and third-pairings. That they don’t have to drop the pace when the artisans are out there instead of the artists. Much like the departed Tyler Bozak, Dermott benefitted from everyone else doing the minesweeping. He played mostly behind Bozak and James van Riemsdyk, and he helped those forwards put up serious numbers.
If the Leafs are going to improve back there, then Dermott is going to have to force Mike Babcock into some decisions. Which is legendarily hard to do. He hates young d-men, which is probably why Kyle Dubas has given him nothing but, aside from Ron Hainsey. He’s not going to be able to run for the bastion of Roman Polak, such as it is. He’s going to have to play these players.
But the Leafs know where things go with Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev. It’s fine. It’s the non-spicy sauce. It’ll do, but you won’t remember it.
Dermott has some pedigree to do more. He averaged a point-per-game in his last season in junior, though in the OHL that’s pretty much the buy-in. He didn’t score that much in his one full season in the AHL. The Leafs don’t need a point-per-game, which he’d struggle to get to without any power play time anyway. What they do need is someone to drive play higher up the lineup. Dermott may be the better bet than Zaitsev.
Game #3 Preview Suite
Lineups & How Teams Were Build
We only wish it was Grand Theft Auto. Most of the people we find for this don’t want to be identified because either they’re people looking for them, don’t want to be associated with us, or both. This is yet another case. Dark things lurk in the musty corners of Twitter, and we found this one called Zubes. Follow him @the_Zubes…if you love the absurd.
While we’re sure you’re basically in a state of hysteria all the time with the rest of Leafs Nation, tell us why this blue line will be better than we think.
– It starts with addition by subtraction. Prior to the first game of the season I can admit that I didn’t know what an Igor Ozhiganov was. BUT, from the same line of thinking that brought you, “We need to get rid of Matt Stajan even if it means taking on Dion Phaneuf” and “We need to get rid of Dion Phaneuf even if it means we get literally nothing” and “We need to get rid of Phil Kessel even if it means we are gift-wrapping Pittsburgh two Cups”, they needed to get rid of Roman Polak, even if it meant throwing a random collection of vowels on the bottom pairing.
Ultimately, the answer to your question comes down to Jake Gardiner. You’re either a “Jake Gardiner is better than you are giving him credit for” or you’re “Jake Gardiner isn’t as bad as you’re saying he is.” The issue this year is that he eventually has to get paid and no matter what he gets it’ll be the wrong amount. Every year around the deadline Maple Leafs fans convince themselves the team is about to cash in on the forward depth (we’re the only team with good young forward prospects – the AHL team is almost TOO talented) and add a difference maker back there to ease the load on everyone’s back. Having already pushed so many chips into the middle with the Tavares move, the shouts to do that very type of trade will be louder than ever and I think most of us are assuming this is the year something along those lines actually happens.
If they don’t make any moves though? Oh, we’ll just add a random AHL defenceman. The Marlies are so good, man.
Also, why we’re at it, why Fredrik Andersen won’t shit a chicken in a Game 7 again. If he has a major dip in the regular season would the Leafs think about going to get someone else?
– Similar to the Jake Gardiner split, a lot of people decided to stake their reputations on Freddie (we call him Freddie because it makes him sound more Canadian) being very slightly above average last year while taking more shots than Ed Belfour before he tries to bribe a cop with a billion dollars. A lot of people are going to hope that the answer to question one will help out here in question two, but I have very little faith. The brain boys in charge seem to be all hyped up on blog posts that explain to rubes “Puck possession is all that matters and goaltending is unpredictable, no we aren’t just saying that because it is hard to quantify”, but count me in the camp with basically no faith in the goaltending. They just let two reasonably okay backups go on waivers (Wow, the whole league wants to gobble up players that couldn’t crack this roster, what a blessing to have so much talent) so I think the powers that be have more faith – way too much faith – in him than I do. It will end in tears, especially when the same problems are lingering on the blue line and crease come deadline time and all that ends up happening is a deal for a 4th line centre.
Backup goalie Garrett Sparks (with a name like a YouTube star) cried the first time he played a game here because he’s a local, so expect his leash to be longer than you would think from the average backup.
Are the problems between Auston Matthews and Mike Babcock real? Will Babs finally take off the tire chains for a team with this much firepower?
– Much like Roman Polak, the first thing noted NJPW weeb Kyle Dubas had to do with the forward group is take away Babs’ toys and force him to not play absolute plugs like Matt Martin and Leo Komarov for half the game. I think the 5-on-5 lines will remain a mix of things like “Tyler Ennis and Zach Hyman on lines with the two best players” but the powerplay units should be as legit as they come. Failing to be a top powerplay team this year would be an unanswerable failure.
More than one person that is closer than I am to the team has whispered that most of the young guys just sort of roll their eyes at Babcock, but does anyone under 25 in the NHL really like their coach? Dubas is letting them grow beards and wear whatever number they want, so the hope is that having a “successful older cousin that talks to you about emo at Thanksgiving and tags you in memes on instagram” type matters to them more than the military dad that yells at you in the car on the way home from your games.
How does this whole William Nylander thing end?
Baldness. And I think Dreamboat Willie will end up around $7M x 6 or so, but it won’t happen for another few weeks. Also, William is starting to lose the wings of his hair first, so he will keep it long so people don’t see how thin his hair is getting. It will be buzzed / shaved before whatever contract he signs is over.
Game #3 Preview Suite
Lineups & How Teams Were Build
