Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Flames 26-13-4 (1st in Pacific)   Hawks 16-21-7 (6th in Central)

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

FRIENDS OF CAL AND GARY’S: FlamesNation.ca

It’s a cruel world, this NHL. After the Hawks played what was maybe their best game of the season in Pittsburgh last night, outplaying the hottest team in the league, their reward is to wheel it back out there again tonight against another first-placed team who has been waiting for them. And one that’s already beaten them twice this season. It ain’t all waitin’ on you, as Sheriff Tom Bell’s brother told him at the end of No Country For Old Men. 

All seems pretty right in the world for the Calgary Flames, who are at least almost all of the way pivoted to David Rittich in goal, which was their biggest issue. The top line has gone absolutely bonkers, with all of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias (I SAID WWE STANDS FOR….) Lindholm in the top-20 in scoring in the league. Matthew Tkachuk is having quite the free agent hear with 49 points his own damn self from the second line, where Mikael Backlund continues to beat anyone about the head and face possession-wise. They even get contributions from the bottom-six, even if James Neal will soon require a Hazmat treatment to be around.

The defense is the real key, where Mark Giordano‘s normal Norris-worthy year has been joined by a rebound from T.J. Brodie, and a bigger rebound from Travis Hamonic on the second-pairing. They’re even letting child Rasmus Andersson freewheel on the third-pairing, and he’s got wheels for days (and you got ass for weeks yeah yeah yeah).

Earlier in the year, the Flames were having defensive issues, even with that personnel. That seems to have cleared up a little, as only the Sharks give up less attempts per game at evens, and they’ve improved to middle of the pack in xGA/60 from near the bottom where they were. Any middling goals-against numbers are mostly the result of having Mike Smith and his arms that don’t work on the roster, and insisting on playing him any other time than when Rittich has the plague. As with most Bill Peters led teams, their metrics are glowing and this all appears to be real.

Whether the Flames can negotiate their way far in the spring depends on if Rittich is the real deal when it really counts, and if they can finish top of the division. Do that, and you only have to beat one of the Knights or Sharks to get to the West final. Don’t and you have to go through both, and that’s going to be a real trick.

As for the Hawks, they’ll turn to Collin Delia tonight, and you’d have to imagine given the Flames firepower he’s going to be awfully busy. In his limited NHL experience, this is about as good of an offense he’s seen, barring the uncaring Jets at the end of last season. Sure, the Avs have their top line but the Flames have that and then more. So this will be an interesting test, especially behind a tired team.

Shouldn’t be any other changes. Would expect Chris Kunitz to stay in the lineup after not being a toxic waste dump last night. Henri Jokiharju did fly back to Chicago last night and could play but I think Wednesday is more likely. They’d want at least one practice or morning skate, if only to figure out where exactly he slots. But you never know. Other than that, Drake Caggiula makes his home debut.

If the Hawks are going to get anything out of this one, they’ll need the special teams just like they did last night. The Flames aren’t a great PK team, and their power play is not as good as you’d think given what they have on it. A power play goal or two are close to a requirement.

 

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Much like his father, Matthew Tkachuk is extremely annoying. Apple doesn’t fall far from the fuckstick and all that. He has pissed off pretty much every fanbase and player in the Pacific Division, and if he isn’t already he will soon reach Ryan Kesler levels of vitriol by anyone who has to deal with him regularly.

And much like his father, he’s a real weapon. Keith was a center you couldn’t move from around the net, when he wasn’t busy yapping about how much money he was making. You can’t move Matthew much either, and he could soon be yapping about how much money he’s going to be making. Which might make the Flames a little nervous.

Tkachuk is on a real heater this season, He’s at 18 goals and 29 assists, good enough for 47 points. His career-high in points is 47 set last year. So the 90 he’s on pace for now obviously blows that out of the water. Which makes him awfully expensive, as it just so happens that he’s coming out of his entry-level deal.

This is where the Flames might not want to hear the word, “Nylander.” As he’s reset the market for players coming out of entry deals, there are going to be others who want to take advantage of that. Keep in mind that William Nylander only put up 61 points in his year before his extended holdout. Tkachuk looks a good bet for at least 80. $7 million might not even be the upper-limit for what he seeks. Tkachuk can’t even be knocked for benefitting from playing with Johnny Gaudreau or Sean Monahan, as he’s spent most of his time taking on much harder assignments with Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik in the 3M line you’ve heard so much about. Tkachuk’s agent will be thinking about a lot more than 3 Ms come the summer.

Which will put the Flames structure and policies under the microscope. Gaudreau earns $6.7M per year, signed out of his entry-level deal. He’s clearly the Flames top star. Monahan comes in behind that at $6.3M. Are they in a hurry to pay someone more than him? We like to pretend these aren’t big deals in NHL dressing rooms, but we also know that’s a fallacy.

The Flames aren’t blessed with a ton of room, with somewhere around $14M available next season. Tkachuk will eat up about half of that next year, or he could. Both of their goalies are free agents, and while they’ll be delighted to send Mike Smith on his way, if Big Save Dave Rittich takes them far in the spring he’s going to need a lot more than the $800K he’s getting now. The season after next both TJ Brodie and Travis Hamonic are up, and the Flames are going to require a second pairing. Brodie especially could command a raise from his current $4.6M.

Man, what a burden it is to have a lot of good young players in the NHL.

It’s another example of just how hard the line is to balance. Looking it over, the Flames only have one really bad contract on the books. That’s James Neal‘s free agent deal from this past summer. But they’ll still have to figure out how to fit Tkachuk and others around that in the next two summers, while adding so they can get over whatever obstacle presents themselves. One more bad deal, to either their own or another free agent, and the Flames could start losing talent.

Which makes the hardball Tkachuk could play this summer a real adventure for them.

 

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@BookofLoob is yet another creature we’ve unearthed from the darkest depths of the internet. We asked it questions, but don’t ask too many questions about it. 

The Flames are still in first. This thing has to be real now, right?
 
Nashville is finally being undone by their “I love domestic abusers and a 36 year old Finnish Mike Smith” GM, and good things are never, EVER allowed to happen to Winnipeg, so yeah, this is real. You get some goaltending and you let the fake goalie ride the pine, mix it in with a top line that’s scoring at will, plus you throw in that, aside from Garnet Hathaway, you essentially have a top to bottom roster with real, functional players, the results are going to roll in.
Power play still sucks.
 
Johnny Gaudreau is fourth in the league in scoring. And yet he doesn’t seem to get the press of McDavid or Kucherov or the Colorado kids. He should blow past his career high of 30 goals with 23 already. Why the breakthrough?
 
If we’re calling this a breakthrough, it’s only because the breakthrough has been going on for about three or four years now and progressing as Johnny H enters his prime. Gaudreau and Sean Monahan could always rack up the points together, but it used to be Gaudreau carrying his line while Monahan got the vulture goals, but in recent years, Monahan has added a few dimensions to his game as well. Having a legitimate number 1 RW on their line with Elias Lindholm doesn’t hurt either.
Or maybe it’s because Johnny doesn’t get black out drunk at Cowboy’s anymore. But it’s probably not that, because Johnny absolutely still gets blackout drunk at Cowboy’s.
 
What are the Flames going to do before the deadline?
 
If you ask Leafs fans, it’s trade Rasmus Andersson to them, but if you ask anyone rational, it’s probably just a depth move here or there. As good as the Flames have been, they’re probably not Tampa Bay Lightning tier just yet, and unless they can swing Mark Stone, not many of the rental players out there are going to bump them up to that level.
I think they’d like a backup goalie in case anything happens to Big Save Dave, because you don’t want to have to rely on Mike Smith for anything other than wearing cool hats on the bench. Ideally, if you could murder him or trade him somewhere or something, that would help. One of the big mistakes the team has done this year is bury a really effective Michael Frolik, to the point where I see him being traded sooner rather than later. Maybe there’s something there.
But goddamn how cool would it be to get Mark Stone?
 
Let’s have you bitch about James Neal some more…
 
How about something nice? He’s the first overpaid, underachieving, head scratcher of a Brad Treliving acquisition that isn’t an ex-Hawk.
At least not yet 😉
 
Finally…do you want to walk with Elias?
 
I have bought so many scarves, floral shirts, and a Fender guitar. I want everyone watching the game to silence their cell phones, hold your applause, and shut your mouths. There is one universal truth, a tenet I hold above all else. You see it when the top lines rolls over Brent Seabrook, and you feel it when you look into Cam Ward‘s eyes, his terrified, self aware that he is Cam Ward eyes. It becomes a part of you when the game is over and it’s 5-1 for the Flames and the Hawks are salivating over Jack Hughes while Calgary looks to wrap up home ice throughout the playoffs, and that truth is…. WWE STANDS FOR “WALK. WITH.ELIAS”.
Say it with me now Sam.

 

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There are myriad reasons that the NHL isn’t as popular as it could, maybe even should, be. And a lot of them are little reasons. But add them up enough, and the NHL could be a different landscape. And one of them is teams running from their retro jerseys.

Nothing pops on HD television like bright NHL jerseys, at least not ones bordered or splashed with black, on a white ice surface. The Flames’ throwbacks are a prime example. The Oilers’ old blues were. The Flyers orange. The Penguins figured out to go back to their plainer yellow, both home and road, because it contrasts better. The Islanders’ blue is another prime example.

Games on HD TV would grab eyes a lot better if both sets of jerseys pop. Look at the NBA and how their alternates almost always are brighter. Cool college football jerseys go the same route. Cast your mind to what it looks like with the retro Flames and retro Oilers away jerseys looking like on a Saturday night, and how much better it would be if all games looked this vivid.

Look at these beautiful things. Why would you douse them with unnecessary black lining and pants? It shades everything. Deadens. Why would you run from this? Especially as the Flames won their only Cup wearing these, why wouldn’t you hang onto this?

There should be a decree that you can’t wear black unless it’s actually one of your colors. Flyers, Hawks, Ducks, Kings, Sharks, Knights, Penguins and that’s it. Everyone else needs to be brighter, to make the game look better. It doesn’t sound like much, but it would make a bigger difference than you think.

 

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Notes: That top line is going to be quite the challenge for Murphy and Dahlstrom. Gaudreau has 11 points in his last four games and Monahan has nine…Rittich can’t quite seem to fully grab the #1 job yet, as Smith got two straight starts after the turn of the calendar, but Rittich has gotten the last one and they won so expect him to go tonight…Bill Peters still hates Michael Frolik…Tkachuk also has seven points in his last four games…

Notes: Wouldn’t expect too many changes. There’s an outside shot that Jokiharju plays tonight as he came back last night, but without a morning skate or practice to bleed him back in Wednesday seems more likely…Delia will start, and he will be busy…Toews’s line absolutely destroyed the bottom six of the Penguins last night, which was curious that they weren’t eventually combatted with Crosby…Caggiula didn’t look helpless, and they’re already making noise about moving him to center, so you can look for Kruger’s name to come up in trade talks…

 

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The Rockford IceHogs, AHL affiliate to the Chicago Blackhawks, split a home-and-home with the Central Division-leading Iowa Wild this weekend. The piglets won the back half of the two-game series, exploding for six goals to break a six-game losing skid.

The IceHogs, now 16-15-3-4, remain in sixth place in the Central Division with a .513 points percentage. Rockford is now steeling itself for a Texas road trip that will see the Hogs play in Texas Friday night before games with San Antonio on Saturday and Tuesday.

 

Roster Activity

The IceHogs get a boost in the form of Dylan Sikura and Andreas Martinsen, who were sent to Rockford on Saturday. Both took part in the Hogs 6-2 win over Iowa Sunday.

In Sikura, Rockford gains speed and play-making ability as the organization tries to get him big minutes at the AHL level. Sikura was leading the Hogs in points when he was called up last month and had an assist on a Jacob Nilsson goal Sunday afternoon.

Martinsen, who cleared waivers before being assigned to the IceHogs, spent nearly all of last season with Rockford, putting up 28 points and bringing a very physical element to the mix. The big Norwegian proved to be a productive player in the AHL and should be a key piece for the Hogs moving forward.

Speaking of forwards, Rockford has 15 healthy forwards on the roster. Nick Moutrey, who played Sunday, is nearing the end of his PTO contract. He has two more games left on that agreement, so expect to see some kind of action taken on Moutrey this week.

Viktor Edjsell has now missed nine games with an injury. His return would further crowd the Hogs up front.

Rockford may elect to send a player or two to Indianapolis for a stretch. Matheson Iacopelli, who has been a frequent scratch, went down to the Fuel around this time last season and made a big impact.

Perhaps one of Rockford’s AHL signings, Henrik Samuelsson, Terry Broadhurst, or William Pelletier get sent to the Fuel. Nathan Noel is another prospect that could get minutes in Indy if the team decides there are too many forwards around for now.

In other roster news, Rockford re-assigned defenseman Neil Manning to the ECHL’s Indy Fuel following Sunday’s game. It would seem likely that the team expects to get back Lucas Carlsson and/or Jan Rutta back from injury before the Hogs fly to Texas. If both are ready to return, expect to see D Josh McArdle return to the Fuel late this week.

Minus Manning and McArdle, the Hogs have eight defensemen on the roster. This includes Luc Snuggerud, who was concussed in a game against Iowa on November 3 and has not played since.

 

Fuel Notes

A number of players on AHL contracts with Rockford has spent quite a bit of time with the Fuel, who are 18-16 on the season. Indy is in fourth place in the ECHL’s Central Division. Here’s how the season is going for the Rockford signings in Indy.

F Brett Welychka has six goals and nine assists in 19 games with Indy. F Radovan Bondra has four goals and 11 helpers in 28 games, while F Connor Moynihan has five goals and six assists in 24 games.

Manning has played 29 games in Indy, with 17 points (2 G, 15 A). McArdle has a goal and three assists in 26 appearances.

Goalie Matt Tomkins has been in 26 games for the Fuel. He has a 14-11 record to go with a 3.14 GAA and a .910 save percentage. Tomkins has also been named CCM ECHL Goalie Of The Week on two occasions this season.

 

Recaps

Friday, January 4-Iowa 3, Rockford 0

The IceHogs were shut out for the fifth time in the 2018-19 season on their way to their sixth-straight defeat.

It was a scoreless standoff until the seventh minute of the third period, when Iowa’s Colton Beck sent a wrister from the top of the right circle past the blocker of Hogs goalie Anton Forsberg. Less than a minute later, Will Bitten knocked in a rebound to make it 2-0 Wild. Iowa added an empty net goal by Justin Kloos with 29 seconds remaining in the contest.

Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 26 Rockford shots to record his fifth shutout of the season. The Wild rookie has blanked the Hogs three times this season. Forsberg recorded 31 saves in taking the loss.

Sunday, January 6-Rockford 6, Iowa 2

In breaking their six-game losing streak, the IceHogs scored more goals at the BMO Sunday (6) than in the last six games combined (5). Jacob Nilsson led the way with a hat trick as Rockford finally got some pucks in nets.

Colton Beck spoiled an IceHogs power play with a shorthanded goal midway through the first period. Rockford began the offensive charge early in the middle frame.

Andrew Campbell took a pass from Jordan Schroeder at the left circle. Campbell sent a shot to the net that glanced off of the left pad of Wild goalie Andrew Hammond and tumbled into the cage, tying the score 1-1 at the 1:19 mark.

Iowa regained the lead on the power play, with Justin Kloos getting to the backdoor ahead of Hogs starter Kevin Lankinen. The Hogs trailed 2-1 5:33 into the period but would soon take control of the contest.

Schroeder got to a loose puck in neutral ice and sent it off the half boards and into the Wild zone. Nilsson redirected a nifty backhand pass from Sikura past Hammond at 6:04 of the second to even the score at two goals.

On the subsequent faceoff, the IceHogs got control of the puck behind the Iowa net. Henrik Samuelsson hit Anthony Louis in the high slot. His offering was redirected by Luke Johnson to put Rockford up 3-2 at 6:19 of the second period.

In the final period, Rockford put its foot on the pedal. Louis got things started in the sixth minute, taking a stretch pass from Joni Tuulola and skating down the right side on an odd-man rush. Electing to take the shot, Louis went far side on Hammond and made it 4-2 Hogs at 5:43 of the third.

As time began to run out on the Wild, Nilsson picked off a clearing attempt by Iowa’s Carson Souchy inside the Wild blueline. A few strides and a wrist shot later, the puck settled into the netting behind Hammond and Rockford led 5-2 with 5:17 to play. With help from Andreas Martinsen and Louis, Nilsson completed the hat trick with an empty net goal with 2:49 remaining.

Lankinen made 31 saves in picking up the victory for Rockford. Nilsson, Johnson and Louis were named the Three Stars of the game.

Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for game updates, news and analysis on all things Rockford throughout the season.

 

 

Everything Else

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

There’s probably nothing that will completely take the sting of today’s Bears game away for diehards, but the Hawks sure did their damnedest anyway. They continue what’s been a surprisingly comical dominance of the Pittsburgh Penguins, winning their 10th straight against them since 2014. And they did it on the backs of Cam Ward and Chris Kunitz. Fucking strap in.

– Every time Colliton starts Cam Ward, I want to lose my ass entirely. I usually do. But in four of his last five, Cam Ward has looked at the very least solid. Tonight was no different. It’d be hard to pin the first two goals on him. The first resulted from Toews losing his man in front while Murphy and Dahlstrom covered theirs. On the second, Keith and Anisimov got caught ogling Bryan Rust in the corner, leaving Guentzel all the space in the world to leak one past Ward off Letang’s point shot. The third goal he probably should have had. But 31 saves on 34 shots against the hottest team in the league—which also had an extended 5-on-3—ought to get you the win, and tonight it did. Ward played well.

– When Chris Kunitz and Duncan Keith both score game-tying goals in the same game, it’s probably wise to check to see which direction the screaming wind that will claim our souls is blowing from. But here we stand, alive and relatively well, following these signs of the apocalypse. Kunitz’s goal came off a slick Dahlstrom stretch pass to Kruger on the far boards. Kruger then backhanded it to a streaking Kunitz, who potted it over Casey “I’m a good guy according to a bunch of stupid jackoffs on Twitter” DeSmith’s dumbass glove. Anyone who gives up a goal to 39-year-old Chris Kunitz is automatically not a good guy. I don’t make the rules (yes, I do).

Keith’s goal was a simple snap shot from the point off a Seabrook pass. It’s been so long since we’ve seen this happen that I was certain they’d wave it off out of principle. While Keith’s goal doesn’t entirely make up for the fact that he had a dogshit game outside of it, it helps. It’s still a nightmare watching him get beat to his spots night in and night out. Tonight though, you’ll take the good with the bad.

– Speaking of good, the power play is good now. Write it down, you heard it here first officially. The Hawks scored much the same way they have been on the power play since Colliton’s actual genius brain put the current PP1 together: Toews roamed in the middle, forcing the PK to turtle into him, giving Gus, Kane, and DeBrincat more room to wreak havoc. Kane’s pass to DeBrincat was art that appreciates over time, and this is just what the PP does now.

– After a slow start, Garbage Dick came to life. First on the power play, then on the game winner, which came after extended pressure from the power play. On both goals, Kane slipped a pass from the far circle, though the slot, to a waiting Hawk. In the second case, Dylan Strome didn’t have to do much but tap it in. This is the pass Garbage Dick almost always looks for, but with the way Colliton is drawing plays up, there’s more room to work with.

– The Penguins have a Top 5 power play in the league. The Hawks killed off all of their attempts, including an extended 5-on-3 that saw Ward make several outstanding saves. The Hawks also had a 51+ CF% overall. You might say the win was a fluke, but none of the underlying numbers really suggest that. The Hawks just straight-up beat the hottest team in the league.

– In the grand scheme, Brandon Davidson probably isn’t an answer to any question you’re asking besides “Who’s that one guy who kind of sucked for the Hawks in 2018–19 who missed 25 games due to knee surgery?” But after tonight, maybe you let Forsling spend some more time in the press box with his “upper torso injury” (MORE LIKE LACK OF HEART, MY FRENTS). He and Brent Seabrook led all Hawks in CF% tonight, with a 53+ and 56+, respectively. Because fuck anything that makes sense.

– There’s no reason Dylan Sikura should be in the AHL while Artem Anisimov gets to do anything other than not play NHL hockey. Fuck the contract and whatever other excuse you want to make for Wide Dick, he unequivocally sucks. He brought up the rear in possession with a putrid 34+. The next closest was Garbage Dick with 40+, but guess who didn’t make two assists on game-changing goals? Just fucking offer him for Darnell Nurse at this point. What’s Chiarelli gonna do, say “No, that’s not a good trade for me” for the first time in his entire life? I know he has an NMC or NTC or whatever, so if you can’t get rid of him, just bench him. Sunk cost.

Folks, this is not a drill: The Blackhawks are only six points out of a playoff spot, because parity is fake, the NHL is a vile urinal, and they’ve played a few more games than everyone else just about. Regardless of where they finish, there’s hope for this team yet, and that’s before you truly incorporate guys like Boqvist, Jokiharju, Mitchell, Beaudin et al.

It may not make the hurt of this year or today’s Bears game go away, but it’s something to build on.

Booze du Jour: Tin Cup & High Life

Line of the Night: “The Blackhawks are within striking distance of the playoffs.” – Kathryn Tappen

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 15-21-7   Penguins 23-12-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN

MUNCHIN’ ON A JOE, DICK, AND STANLEY: Pensburgh

While it’s easy to look at the Kings and Hawks, two recent main forces in the NHL, falling on hard times, throw your hands up and say, “Well, that’s just the price of being good for a while,” the Penguins keep putting their thumb in that eye. And when it looked like the Pens would join the Hawks and Kings in the has-been room, they go and ruin it all by doing something stupid like ripping off 10 of 11 since the last time these two met. That has seen them tied atop the Metro division again, with the Capitals, and we’re going to do this dance forever.

It’s not much of a secret how the Penguins managed it. Matt Murray came back from the wilderness and hasn’t lost. Since that Hawks game that he missed, Murray has gone 7-0-0 while giving up just nine goals. Casey DeSmith, despite being a woman-beating dickhead, has backed him up ably, and hence it’s nearly impossible to score more than one or two against the Penguins of late. You can win a lot of games like that.

At the opposite end. having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin sure helps. Crosby has gone off for 29 points in his last 17 games, taking Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust–he of the hat trick the last time we saw the Pens–along with him. Phil Kessel has returned to the third line, though his combo with Derick Brassard has been just short of a disaster. That’s almost all Brassard’s fault, who has just not fit in The Steel City at all, at least not at center. Kris Letang is also molten-hot, and he’s basically all their drive from the back end as the bottom two pairings are a lot of construction horses in the form of Olli Maatta, Jamie Oleksiak, and Jack Johnson (he the name you know).

Given the state of the Metro, there’s little reason the Penguins can’t get back to a conference final, and if Murray is going to be like this then they could go farther. Obviously he’ll have to be that level to get past the Lightning. But a goalie and star power is just about all you need to make a run in the NHL. The Penguins have both right now in spades.

To the Hawks, Cam Ward will take tonight’s start with Collin Delia going at home against the Flames tomorrow. So duck. Drake Caggiula will make his Hawks debut tonight on the fourth line, which is where he should be. His inclusion led to the demotion of Dylan Sikura, which makes us make a frowny face. Though Sikura hadn’t scored, his metrics were really good, he’d showed and understanding with Alex DeBrincat, and Brendan Perlini just doesn’t have the same dash. But whatever, he’ll probably be back soon. Chris Kunitz seems to be drawing back in in a place where he played, throwing a useless veteran a bone for reasons we wouldn’t understand and don’t want to hear. Henri Jokiharju would likely be back tomorrow, no later than Wednesday for sure.

This is not the time to be playing the Penguins, and especially at the Not-Igloo where they will get their matchups and will harass a Hawks defense that simply can’t escape its own zone. That three-pass bullshit the Hawks still insist on using to breakout will get them slaughtered tonight, so they need to play the Pens game and get it the fuck out and get it the fuck up the ice. Otherwise the Penguins loaded forward corps is going to go nuts. If the Hawks do that, it should be at least a fast, entertaining one. Until Cam Ward melts from the inside.

 

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Last week, the Penguins signed Jake Guentzel to a five-year extension starting next season, totaling $30M. Pretty simple stuff as he was coming out of his entry-level deal. He put up 22 goals last year, on pace for over 30 this year, and players that put up those kind of numbers in their first few years get paid around $6 million. Clean and easy.

Not so much. Looking a little deeper, Guentzel has been Sidney Crosby’s main running-buddy since he came up to the NHL halfway through the Penguins second Cup season of ’16-’17. And their numbers together are great. But due to injuries or line-shuffling, Guentzel has spent enough time away from Crosby that we can see what he really might be. And his numbers away from #87 are downright terrible. Take a look:

Corsi-percentage with/without Crosby: 55.9/47.8

Shot-percentage: 56.1/48.3

Scoring-chance percentage: 55.0/46.7

High-danger chance percentage: 54.6/44.9

27 of Guentzel’s career 46 even-strength goals have come with Crosby, so he has managed to score with others. But obviously, those rates of possession are noticeable.

The real question for the Penguins is how much trouble does Guentzel’s new deal affect whatever else the Penguins want to do going forward. This is not a team that’s going to be going through a rebuild anytime soon, and any year with both Crosby and Malkin still playing is a year the Pens are going to try and win. The Penguins only have about $10 million in space next year and only around 14 players signed. While Derick Brassard and Riley Sheehan haven’t done anything in black and gold that’s going to cause anyone to write any fanfic about them, their roles of #3 and #4 centers are going to have to be filled. The way Casey DeSmith has bailed out Matt Murray this season, he’s going to get a raise or the Pens are going to have to find another backup.

The prospect line isn’t gutted but isn’t gushing either, with Kasper Bjorkqvist and Nikita Pavlychev looking to join in the next year or two. But neither look to be huge difference makers. This is all going to result in more Phil Kessel trade rumors to open up even more cap space for whatever the Penguins deem they need. More centers? A second-pairing d-man who isn’t an affront to society like Jack Johnson?

Then again, there’s no reason that for most, if not all, of the five years Guentzel is signed he’s going to play with Crosby. Which means he’ll produce. And you’ll get your $6M worth. But couldn’t a lot of players? Will the Penguins be tempted to put future kids on Crosby’s line to give them a softer landing? Will Guentzel have to move aside if they do, and will he produce if he does? Maybe Hornqvist’s name comes up as well. But both Kessel and Hornqvist score wherever you put them. Guentzel can’t really make that claim.

It would have been the ballsiest of calls to cash in on Guentzel, whose value would have been highest this year or before the season. And you don’t just move a winger that Crosby clearly likes playing with. You find your savings elsewhere. Either way, Guentzel probably owes Crosby a few nice dinners out now that he’s rich.

 

 

Game #44 Preview Suite

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Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built