Everything Else

The bye week/All Star Break is about halfway over for our Men of Four Feathers, so it’s time to start thinking about Blackhawks hockey again. After a piss-poor but not entirely unexpected first half of the season, the Hawks sit last in the Central, 27th overall (two points out of the cellar, ahead of the Senators, Devils, Kings, and Flyera), and 30th in goal differential, ahead of only the Kings. Help isn’t coming, and the only reason the Hawks aren’t sitting in dead last in everything is because of a brief spell of competence spanning late December to early January. It doesn’t look good, dear reader.

And yet, I still want to watch this team win, lottery be damned.

On Friday, the Beast From the East (time zone) Adam Hess laid out a case for the Hawks doing everything they can to tank the rest of the year. To SparkNotes it, no, that doesn’t mean telling the players to Black Sox it. In its most extreme case, tanking would involve trading someone like Patrick Kane, assuming his dad would be OK with it, and starting all the way over. And as much as I would be happy with, say, a straight Kane-for-Subban trade, we all know that isn’t going to happen.

I understand why there’s a contingent that would push for a tank: It would lay the groundwork for the future, give Colliton a chance to play guys whom the decision makers believe are part of the future, and give those same guys a chance to adjust to the expectations foisted upon them. But with the roster as it stands, this team is about as close to tanking as it can be. The only way this roster can get much better as it is, is to rotate Seabrook, only play Ward in back-to-backs, and keep Anisimov on the fourth line. The guys who are a part of the future are pretty much already here: Strome, DeBrincat, Harju, Kampf, possibly Delia. All we’re really waiting on is Boqvist and maybe Beaudin and Barratt.

But even if it were possible for this team to tank any worse, I’m not sure I’d want to see it.

Even though this team sucks like a Kirby, I still celebrate the wins. I still jump off the couch and scare the bejesus out of the dog when Top Cat takes a cross-ice pass for a quick one-time goal. Every time the Hawks go on the power play now, I stand and pace in anticipation for a goal that’s more likely than ever to come. And you better believe I nearly lost my goddamn mind when Delia made that jumping save against the Caps a while back, even though it was the result of him completely losing his ass in the crease.

With the expectations as low as they were coming into the year, there’s still joy when the Hawks aren’t puking all over their shoes. Toews’s Renaissance has been a much-needed relief. Watching Alex DeBrincat outdo himself in his sophomore year (he’s on pace for 40+ goals right now) gives hope for a brighter future that might not be as far away as it seems. David Kampf is one of the best defensive forwards in the entire league, which is as shocking as it is exciting.

And though the defense has been a recycled marital aid this entire year, seeing Connor Murphy play well and with confidence is somewhat vindicating. Erik Gustafsson, for all his warts, has been fun in the offensive zone and on the power play, defense be damned. And Collin Delia’s performance, funk and all, has been a respite from the professional ass pickers the Hawks have trotted out since Corey Crawford’s untimely demise.

For all the pissing and moaning I do about this team, there’s still joy in watching them win, even if that shaves at their chances of winning the lottery. I want to see some deadline moves, particularly involving Anisimov; any one of the Shitty Bash Brothers in Hayden, Martinsen, and Kunitz; and possibly Gustafsson if the price is right. But all in the name of winning as many games as possible, because it’s still fun to watch them win, especially when they’re not supposed to. We may have problems with the people running it, some of the players on it, and the countless off-ice embarrassments it’s self-inflicted, but we still derive joy when this team wins. If you didn’t, why would you bother with it?

When the Hawks won the lottery in 2007, they were slated to pick fifth. Even if they lose out, nothing is guaranteed. Whenever possible, I’d rather not leave things up to chance. So, just win, baby.

– Kendall Coyne Schofield is less than one second slower than Connor Mc-fucking-David. Brianna Decker was the best of the best among passers at the NHL All Star Game by more than three seconds—and if you’re taking the NHL’s word that her time was “unofficial” and that her “real time” was slower than Draisaitl, I don’t know what to tell you. This is a league that doesn’t know what goaltender interference is and can’t get goal calls right with all their technology, and now, you want me to believe they know what they’re doing? Anyway, with the league kind of moving toward more skill and speed, you wonder which team is going to give a woman her shot to play in the NHL first.

Think of it this way: If an amateur male hockey player did what Coyne Schofield or Decker—both Olympic gold medal winners—did, front offices would be busting down the gates, right now, to talk to that player about playing in the NHL, or at least getting a try out. There wouldn’t be angst about, for instance, Decker not getting paid prize money, because that amateur guy would likely have a league-minimum contract (currently, $650,000) in front of him by the end of the week.

The NHL took a step in the right direction by letting Coyne Schofield and Decker show off their skills, which are objectively impressive regardless of the context. I very much liked that and would like to see even more of that, by which I mean I would like to see skilled and successful women playing hockey in the NHL in real games throughout the season. I would rather give someone like Coyne Schofield or Decker a look over someone like current Chris Kunitz, Ryan Reaves, or any of the other trash pail assclowns front offices try to trick us into thinking are hockey players today. That they—along with Fast and Johnston—got money to donate to charities, endorsements from adidas, and a chance to show their stuff is awesome, and I want to see more of that. Getting to watch skilled hockey players who aren’t in the NHL upstage hockey players who are in the NHL is 100% my jam.

I’m sure there will always be concern trolls wringing their sticky hands over “What happens when a woman takes a hit from Tom Wilson?” or “How will women cope with the way hockey players act around each other?” or whatever other socially inept excuse they want to peddle to cover for their disdain of women. I do not give a single lingering fuck about what those people think at all. If a hockey player is as talented as Coyne Schofield or Decker proved to be (once again) on one of the most-watched hockey stages around, the question shouldn’t be, “But how can a woman fit into a real game?” It should be, “How can we get this talent on the ice?”

Ain’t no one worried about how Alex DeBrincat will deal with a hit. And if your behavior around “the guys” is so reprehensible as to draw questions about how women would “cope with it,” then fix your fucking behavior. There’s too much talent at risk to waste time fostering whatever illusions these hockey-playing hayseeds have about their masculinity.

Still, I’ll move forward with cautious optimism that the NHL will keep showing us the best Women’s Hockey has to offer until the league takes the logical next step and offers it themselves.

– The Hawks traded Arizona’s fifth-round pick to the Kings for “Another” Dominik Kubalik. He’s a 23-year-old winger whom the Kings drafted in the seventh round back in 2013. He’s playing in the top Swiss League and has 20 goals and 23 assists so far this year. He’s still youngish and, like most guys who hop the pond, needs more ass to his game, but it’s fine. It’s a low-risk, high-reward trade if everything breaks right.

Everything Else

Like many of you, weather and work kept me away from the BMO this weekend. I pledged to pack in an hour of Hogs-related musings. The clock starts…now.

First off, the kids down in Rockford put together a gritty weekend at home and came out with a pair of victories. Friday night, the IceHogs tied the game with a Jordan Schroeder goal with three seconds in regulation, completing a comeback from two goals down in the final two minutes with a 4-3 shootout win over Manitoba.

On Saturday, Rockford hosted Iowa. The Hogs got enough rubber past Kaapo Kahkonen knock off the Wild 3-1. The game-winner came off the stick of Terry Broadhurst early in the third period. First star of that game was Anton Forsberg, who stopped 33 of 34 Iowa shots.

So…for the sixth time this season, the IceHogs have a two-game win streak. Plus, Rockford joined the rest of the AHL on the 100-goal plateau this season, though those 105 goals are still last in the league.

Just once in the 2018-19 campaign has Rockford stretched a streak to three games. Conversely, the piglets have compiled losing streaks of six (twice) and four games. Rockford (19-19-3-5) shares the Central Division basement with the Moose. Both teams sport a .500 points percentage.

Can the IceHogs parlay a pair of home wins into some sort of climb up the division ladder? I just don’t know. As was the case at this point last year, the piglets were not a playoff-level squad. A lot of things had to change on the personnel side in February of 2018 to transform the roster into the juggernaut that reached the conference final.

As of this morning, this is not a roster that’s going to be competing for a postseason berth. Prove me wrong, boys.

Are there additions from the Hawks roster that could make a difference in the next couple of months? Not unless you think Gustav Forsling can come down and have the impact Cody Franson had in Rockford the last three months of last season. Which I don’t.

Even with some tinkering from above, the hole may be just a bit too deep for the Hogs to vacate. Like last year, the prospect talent alone isn’t close to being able to go on an extended tear through the league. Now, Rockford is two games into a stretch of nine home dates in a span of ten games. If this team has anything resembling a hot patch in it, now would be a great time to display that fire.

Broken record, but the goalies have really been good. Kevin Lankinen and Anton Forsberg have been splitting the work in net and the Swedish Connection continue to stand out despite some less than optimal goal support.

A quick look at this weekend’s AHL All-Star Classic puts things into perspective. With goalie Collin Delia in Chicago, the only representative is Western Conference captain Andrew Campbell.  The veteran defenseman was not selected for his play on the ice.

Anthony Louis is the team’s leading scorer with 27 points (10 G, 17 A). He’s on his way to a similar showing to last season’s 44-point effort. Dylan Sikura leads the team with 12 goals to go with a dozen assists. Jacob Nilsson picked up his 11th goal this weekend, while Louis and Jordan Schroeder each have ten.

Rookie defenseman Lucas Carlsson has been a bright spot, with seven goals and 15 helpers. Darren Raddysh has identical numbers, though he had just a single point in his last 12 games.

Alexandre Fortin assisted on Broadhurst’s game-winner Saturday. The trouble is that was his first point in a month. As was the case last year, Fortin hasn’t made an impact on the scoreboard, with just six points (2 G, 4 A) in 21 games.

Well…the sands are running out on me this week. Rockford hosts the Wolves this Friday, then visit Milwaukee Saturday. With two wins to close out the month, perhaps February is more hospitable to the IceHogs.

Follow me @JonFromi for tidbits on the Hogs throughout the season.

 

Everything Else

Here in the middle of the NHL All-Star Break, I find myself in a familiar place as last year – we’re 51 games into the Blackhawks’ season, and I’m about to talk about how they should probably tank. No, really, click this link and I literally wrote about the tank last year at the same 51 game mark. Funny how these things have a way of, erm, working out. At least I get another chance to use that ridiculous photoshop I made last year.

When I did this last year, I was basically contemplating an impossible. The Blackhawks were probably a bit too far out of the running for last place to make a true run at it, and even then they ended the season with the 7th-best lottery odds and actually ended up getting jumped and ended up picking 8th. They did address the main need area of the blue line with their pick of Adam Boqvist, and his ceiling appears to be rather high.

This year, the potential for “tanking” is much higher, because the Hawks are a measly two points ahead of the last place tie between the Ottawa Senators and New Jersey Devils. The problem is there are five other teams who can make that claim as well, and three others that are only six points ahead of the Sens/Devils. That being said, our local idiots have played at least one more game than every other team below them in the standings, and three more than the Devils (who boatraced them last week, lest we forget), so the case for them being the worst team in the league and the front runner for the last place sweepstakes is not a hard one to make, though Detroit has a case as well considering they’re tied with the Hawks through 51 games played themselves.

The situation is eerily similar to last year as well. If I wrote the following today, it would still apply , but I assure you that this cut and paste from the article referenced above:

The Crawford situation has become a lose-lose for the Blackhawks. Crow’s health is obviously the most important thing, and you don’t want to rush him back and risk anything going wrong in the future because he is going to be the key to this team contending in the years to come. And we’re seeing how well things are going without him – you have two dudes who never spent significant time in the NHL trying each game to not play as bad as they did last game. So you don’t want to rush Crow back, but without him you’re up shit’s creek without a paddle.

Then you also have the question of whether Crawford coming back this year at all is really even worth it, even if you don’t rush it. We’ve already seen reports that he might miss the whole season, so it may not be a stretch to say that the Hawks bringing him back at all could be a form of rushing him back. And even if he does come back and squeeze you into a playoff spot, is it really going to be worth playing those extra games just to more than likely get bounced by Nashville or God forbid WINNIPEG? Even if your draft lottery odds are the longest shot, that’s better chance at the apparently generational talent of Rasmus Dahlin than zero.

Clearly Rasmus Dahlin is not available this year, but insert Jack Hughes – or Kaapo Kakko if that’s your fancy – in for him (and maybe remove generational, cuz Hughes is good but certainly no McDavid/Eichel/Matthews) and it’s current. The Hawks are in a really nasty spot with Crawford and it’s arguably worse this year than it was last year, because now we’re in round two of a serious concussion problem. He’s been skating already so there’s a decent chance he returns, but as the podcast crew talked about this week he probably isn’t giving you anything more than half of the remaining games if he does come back, and even then he hasn’t had the kind of season that would see him carry them back into the playoff hunt.

Who has that kind of season is Collin Delia, who’s posted a .923 save percentage in his 10 games this year, doing so behind a defense so bad that even with that impressive save rate he still has a 3.oo GAA. If Delia proves to ultimately be a franchise goalie, then him de-railing any kind of last place finish race would definitely be okay by me. That being said, we probably won’t really know quite yet if he is a franchise goalie, even if he does help them go on some kind of run and keeps them well out of last place this year. So that’s a bit of a Sophie’s Choice for us in the pro-tank crowd – do we prefer the potential franchise goalie plays bad to help secure a franchise 1C, or do we prefer Delia ruin our chances at a franchise 1C even if he won’t ultimately be a franchise goalie? If you have a firm answer to that, I envy you.

Further complicating things is the simple fact that you can’t coach a team to tank – though Coach Cool Youth Pastor running this man-to-man system with a roster not nearly fast enough to do it properly is about as close to doing so you’ll find. Despite the system, Colliton can’t convince Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews or Alex DeBrincat to stop being extremely good at hockey, and he certainly can’t tell anyone else not to try. Even if most of these players are not long for the roster if this franchise is going to return to competing, they’re still auditioning for NHL jobs either here or elsewhere and they owe it to themselves to play well. On top of that, a lot of this team is young and we still need to see what we have in them – Dylan Strome, Henri Jokiharju, and Delia are all examples of this. So we need them at their best.

So it comes down to if Stan Bowman is going to ultimately admit that everything he and McD have tried to force feed us this year about this team competing was just a bunch of bullshit. It’s kind of started already, but they’ll never come out and explicitly say “actually this roster sucks ass and we wanted it this way,” and they certainly won’t cop to signing shitty players in an effort to give Joel Quenneville enough rope to hang himself – which, based on what we’ve seem from this team since Q was fired in favor of CCYP, he didn’t even truly manage to do.

And if Bowman does decide to that he’s going to sell off what he can in order to maximize lottery odds, what does he really have to sell? Do you really think shipping Erik Gustafsson out of here is going to be the final straw that bottoms out this team? Has Chris Kunitz really brought enough to the table for this team to such when he leaves (the answer is no, they’ll actually get better with that)? If you can even convince Cam Ward to leave, and convince some team to take him, does that make the Hawks chances of winning the games he would’ve played that much higher?

So yeah – personally I think that tanking, in whatever form the Hawks might be able to do so, is the best way forward for this year’s Hawks. They have a decent crop of forwards locked up for the future, but there’s no 1C of the future here, so Jack Hughes is more than welcome. Even if you end up with Kakko, that’s an improvement for the future and he might even wind up as this year’s Patrick Laine.

The thing is, like last year, there is no clear and obvious way to go about “tanking” that really results in a tank, because outside of the unrealistic Kane trade that Rose talked about on Wednesday, you’re not shipping out much talent worth anything. So, like last year, we’re almost stuck hoping that the team ends up bad enough – and the teams below them string enough wins together – to have the Hawks end up with the highest possible lottery chances, and then we again hope and pray for the ping pong balls to favor us. It’s – still – the good ol’ hockey game.

Everything Else

Stats gathered from NaturalStatTrick.com, NHL.com, hockey-reference.com, unless otherwise linked.

Imagine you’re Jeremy Colliton. You’re young, allegedly great at communicating, and coming off a deep Calder Cup run. You’re the lad in waiting behind a legendary coach who looks to have lost the room, and who’s certainly and ironically fallen out of the Brain Trust’s circle of trust. When the front office drops the hammer on the Joel Quenneville Era—and along with it the groin-grabbing ecstasy of a dynasty bygone—they turn to you, the 33-year-old, out-of-the-box hire who’s had success everywhere he’s gone.

Then you go 12–18–6. And now, the question is, “Who’s to blame,” or, more specifically, “Is Colliton a long-term answer?”

Before we dive asslong into the why and why not regarding whether Colliton’s the answer, let’s get a few things out of the way. First, 36 games do not a coach make, but it does give us an idea for what a coach can be, so consider this a halfway review of sorts. Second, despite what Bowman and McDonough wanted you to believe, this team was a fringe wild card team if everything went perfectly, a 70-point team max if not. Third, Colliton has a contract that runs through the 2020–21 season. With these givens in mind, let’s putz around for a proof for both scenarios.

The Case for Colliton as the Answer

1. Time: In a November 25, 2018, interview with Scott Powers, Stan Bowman had this to say about Colliton’s slow start (emphasis added):

Coming in, we didn’t want to change a lot of things off the bat, but we want to try and change some of the tendencies. The hardest part is guys have played one way for a while. You get habits engrained with you. It’s hard to change them without a lot of practice time, without also thinking on the ice, and I think we’re seeing some of that.

While there’s a ton to unpack in this quote alone, the part I’m focused on is the time factor. Colliton has had very little time to implement the systems he wants to implement. The wholesale changes he has tried to make—man-to-man instead of zone defense, primarily—have been done on the fly. Only one systemic change, the power play, has worked so far (and given the depth of scoring talent the Hawks have always had, that shouldn’t be so surprising). As The Maven so eloquently pointed out a few weeks ago, if Bowman had any courage whatsoever, he would have fired Quenneville before the season began and given Colliton more time to try to implement his systems in a more controlled setting, rather than making him shit his pants, dive in, and swim.

Whether those systems work or not is a question more adequately answered with more preparation. With this season swirling down the drain like piss in the Wrigley troughs, one of the things to look forward to is what Colliton can push out after a full offseason of tinkering. Right now, it’s obvious that the man-to-man system is a diaper fire. It’s possible that that’s just what it is, but it’s also possible that the guys he has just haven’t been comfortable making such a marked change in in-game situations (on top of the sucking, instincts tend to take over).

If Colliton is given at least one offseason to prepare—rather than hoping that guys older than him will change the way they’ve played for a decade on a dime—it’s plausible that the system is only as bad as players within it, which is a bit easier to solve than a broken system.

2. Talent: You and I both knew that unless everything went perfectly, this Hawks team wouldn’t be a playoff team. You can’t really blame Colliton for having a roster whose blue line is the personification of a middle finger in Quenneville’s face foisted upon him. (You can blame him for how he uses it, which we’ll do shortly.) But there might be hope.

At the rate the team is going, they’re likely to be in the running for a top-2 pick in the draft, which could inject young, NHL-ready forward talent into the mix immediately. By most accounts, Boqvist could be ready next year, as might Beaudin. The Hawks have cap space to use for a genuine top-4 defenseman in the offseason, which needs to be the foremost priority for Bowman, lest he’s trying to get fired.

If Colliton’s system requires speed, the Hawks have some waiting in the wings, and they have the salary cap means to go get some.

3. The Power Play: Of all the things Colliton has done right, this is it. Since December 18—which is when the current iteration of the PP1 took over—the Hawks are the absolute best power play team in the league with a 39.6% conversion rate (19 goals/48 opps.). They’re on a nine-game PP goal streak. They’ve climbed from deadass last to 16th in the league in that span. The next closest team to them in that time frame, the Penguins, are nearly 8% behind them at 31.8% (14 goals/44 opps.).

This is what gives me the most hope that Colliton is the answer. For nearly 11 years, the Hawks have had some of the best scoring talent on the planet yet only finished in the top 10 for PP% three times. Their woes on the PP were without a doubt systemic. It took Colliton about a month to fix that. When given the talent, Colliton tapped into it quickly. The power play is just a part of the whole, but if given enough time, you can’t help but wonder if he can fix other systemic problems the team has. So, I’ll argue that that power play is a case study in what Colliton can do given the appropriate talent and time.

The Case Against Colliton as the Answer

1. Firing Bowman: Bylsma–Murray in Buffalo. Hakstol–Hextall in Philly. Peters–Francis (Geraci) in Carolina. While it isn’t a hard-and-fast rule that a new GM will bring in a new coach, there is a history of it. And the drum that beats louder and louder every day is FIRE STAN BOWMAN. There’s certainly a case for it: From trading Teuvo, to signing Manning and extending Rutta as a “fuck you” to Quenneville, to claiming that he saw this team as a playoff contender, Bowman’s recent decision making has been, to put it politely, pigshit.

If Bowman is fired after this season, it’s possible that whoever replaces him will want to go Bret “Hitman” Hart and wash out the old-man smell Bowman left behind. That could include tossing Colliton. This is the most likely scenario in which Colliton doesn’t stick: a new GM throwing out the baby with the bathwater because the baby was born in the bathwater.

2. Lineup Management: Sometimes, the new boss looks awfully similar to the old boss. We’ve recently watched Henri Jokiharju take a healthy scratch in favor of Slater Koekkoek and Carl Dahlstrom of the “not part of this team’s future” collective. When asked why he did that, this supposed Great Communicator babbled about “fast forwarding his development” by benching him, claiming “you can’t play everyone” (skip to 5:43 in this audio clip). What started off as a somewhat believable answer about Harju’s scratch (82-game season, takes time to adapt, don’t want to burn him out [though sending him to the WJC kind of fucks that narrative, doesn’t it?]) devolved into the question we can’t stop asking: “When is it Seabrook’s turn,” or, more accurately, “Why isn’t it Seabrook’s turn?”

And it’s not just that. It’s making DeBrincat play not-top-6 minutes with guys who are only skating because they won a fucking drawing (which is something Colliton has changed recently, which is good). It’s starting Cam Ward in situations that aren’t back-to-backs. It’s slotting Anisimov over DeBrincat and Saad (which is finally changing, too). The talent is what it is, but it’s the management of that talent that’s questionable. In a perfect world with this lineup, you’re looking at something like:

DeBrincat–Toews–Kane

Saad–Strome–Kahun

Caggiula–Kampf–Kruger

Perlini–Anisimov–Hayden

Murphy–Jokiharju

Keith–Gustafsson

Dahlstrom–Seabrook, Koekkoek (rotating)

Delia

Although time is a factor in figuring out what you’ve got, it’s not really a mystery anymore. Load up the top 6, let Jokiharju create, and if you want to rotate your D-men, rotate the ones who either suck or aren’t a part of the future (this possibly includes Gustafsson). Until Colliton shows us that he can scratch Seabrook or Keith after a bad game, his “we might rotate guys” schtick will be hard to take seriously. He’s been put in an impossible situation with the defense, but if they’re really trying to win, when Seabrook and even Keith’s play warrant it, scratch them. (And kiss my ass with any cynical “asses in seats” arguments you want to make. If McDonough is as good a marketer as he says he is, he’ll find a way to market the team as it transitions away from the Old Guard. Even name recognition stops drawing after too much losing, so position the team to win more now.)

3. The Stats: Let’s look at this in two ways: Colliton vs. Quenneville this year; Colliton vs. Quenneville last year after Crawford’s injury. We can control for Crawford’s appearance this year because he wasn’t very good in the time he was here.

Team Stats CF% SCF% HDCF% PDO Points%

Colliton

2018–19

(36 games)

47.85 (26th) 45.73 (29th) 41.76 (31st) .994 (T-21st) .417 (30th)

Quenneville

2018

(15 games)

51.5 (10th) 49.17 (20th) 43.64 (27th) .989 (22nd) .500 (22nd)

Quenneville

2017–18

(47 games*)

51.96 (8th) 51.99 (6th) 46.88 (25th) .979 (29th) .394 (28th)

* = After Crawford Injury

CF% = Corsi; SCF% = Scoring Chances For Percentage; HDCF% = High-Danger Chances For Percentage; PDO = Shooting Percentage + Save Percentage

No matter how you slice it, the Hawks are statistically worse across the board than they ever were with Quenneville, and that’s with marginally better luck (i.e., higher PDO) than Quenneville ever had (and Colliton’s PDO would likely be higher if he weren’t throwing Cam Ward and his .888 SV% out there with aplomb). They possess the puck less, have fewer scoring chances, and give up more high-danger chances. It’s no coincidence that they’re the worst in the league in HDCF% and second-worst in points percentage, in front of only Ottawa, a team that should be relegated to the AHL.

What’s even more worrying is that the team is getting statistically worse under Colliton despite marginally better talent. This year, Quenneville didn’t have Murphy or Strome (whether he’d use them properly is another story). He had Manning and Rutta, and we don’t need to sing that song again. He didn’t have Collin Delia to throw a .923 despite facing 35+ shots per game. While neither Murphy, Strome, nor Delia are saviors, they are better than what Quenneville had to work with.

So, What Are We Doing Here?

In the end, despite the record and the stats, you let Colliton ride out his contract at the very least. Watching what he did with the power play is enough to wonder what more he can fix, given time and talent. Whether it’s Bowman or someone else (other than Chiarelli), the key to Colliton’s success will be getting something resembling defensive talent on the roster. Connor Murphy can’t do everyone’s job.

Boqvist, Beaudin, and Mitchell (once he finishes college) are supposed to be those guys soon, but you still need to bring someone in via trade or free agency. Karlsson is probably a pipe dream. We know that Carolina wanted Saad for Faulk. Would they take Saad, Gustafsson, and a prospect like Beaudin for Hamilton? If they would, would you do it? All of these guys could fit the system Colliton wants to implement. The question is, “Will he have enough time with them?”

We always knew this team would be bad, but Colliton was supposed to at least stabilize that. He hasn’t really done that yet. With more time and a full offseason, we’ll have a better idea for what Colliton can do. I want to see.

Everything Else

Even with winning the last two games, I think it’s safe to say that this season is in the toilet and the possibility of the Hawks going on some insane run to squeak into the playoffs is rather low. The players will of course never say as much because, one, they’re going to keep repeating what they’re told to say, and two, I’m sure they’re not actually trying to be awful and would like to go on an insane run.

The front office will probably remain a little more subtle about it, although Stan Bowman’s latest comments about how they’ll “be better a year from now than we are now and two years from now” definitely belie the One Goal bullshit and reveal they know this season is a lost cause at this point.

So if we’re living in reality, and it’s clear the rebuild is necessary and not some on-the-fly nonsense, it’s time to evaluate what that rebuild actually entails, and not just the merits of whether or not to tank for a draft pick. I’m talking about something else: because to rebuild something you have to knock it down first, and that means the Hawks should look at trading Patrick Kane.

But Rose!, you’re saying. That’s insanity and he’s their best player and he’s part of the core and you’re a fucking lunatic and HOW COULD YOU SAY THAT. Calm down. This is a thought exercise around a move that probably won’t happen but maybe isn’t as disastrous as it initially seems. Let’s explore this together.

A Dose of Realism

As we’ve covered and as everyone basically knows, Patrick Kane is having a career year. As of this writing, he was leading the Hawks in points (by a wide margin), leading the team in goals, and his shooting percentage is the highest it’s been since his Hart-winning 2015-16 season. He’s also in the top ten league-wide for points and goals, and he’s the Hawks’ only representative at the All-Star game this weekend. Yes, his possession numbers are underwater but that’s never been his strong suit and my god, did you see Artem Anisimov on his line all those games?

On top of the numbers, there’s no reason to think this can’t carry over for a couple more seasons. Kane just turned 30, so undoubtedly the clock is ticking. But he implemented some new training regimen this offseason that apparently is working for him (it was described by another player in the article where I read about it as “jedi shit”), and we know Kane loves the adulation and the high of scoring (probably the high from other things as well but that’s none of my business). When he cups his hand to his ear to egg on the crowd or does his fist pump move, you can see him feeding on that energy. That’s why it’s also blatantly obvious when his give-a-shit meter is at –12.

And that meter has been pretty damn low for a lot of games, not just this season but over the last couple. It’s entirely possible Kane would welcome a trade to a team that’s actually a contender or could be one. What if, say, the Hurricanes or Sabres came calling? Or what if Erik Karlsson and Joe Pavelski both walk from San Jose after the season and the Sharks find themselves with $11 million? Or what if, now that hell has definitively frozen over and Pete Chiarelli has been fired into the sun, the Oilers start making smart decisions? None of these are necessarily LIKELY to happen, but just consider them. I highly doubt Patrick Kane feels such undying devotion to Rocky Wirtz and Jon McDonough that he wouldn’t even entertain the possibility of playing his last good years somewhere where it’ll matter and could result in some more hardware.

All Games, All Price Levels

But the front office would be insane to do it, right? Ticket sales would tank! Well, I’ve got news for you in case you haven’t been listening: judging by all those GREAT SEATS STILL AVAILABLE plugs from Foley and Olczyk, ticket sales are already tanking. And with how this season is going to end, there is nothing here currently to stop that process.

You know what does help? Being good. Consistently good. Even unexpectedly good. And the most likely way the Hawks are going to get there is by admitting the problem and rebuilding. Yes, they could try to make the right trades, add pieces, wait for Adam Boqvist, and close their eyes tight and hope. But how has that been working out so far? There are still issues like Seabrook’s contract and all the things we’ve pondered and dissected for lo these many months. Which brings us back to the inevitable need for a rebuild and the fact that Kane is the movable piece.

Denial, Anger, Bargaining…

Now for the Hawks, this would obviously demolish their scoring capability in the short term (at least). But if this is the way forward, it’s time to get a bunch of puzzle pieces and see if they fit. And Kane’s 10.5 mildo a year can buy a shitload of puzzle pieces. The other big contracts on the books are much less likely to be moved, for all the reasons you already know: Seabrook’s is an albatross, Toews probably does have undying devotion, Keith appears not to give a flying fuck about anything, etc. That leaves a willing Patrick Kane as the most sensible way to exchange a big contract for many small ones.

And it doesn’t have to be all at once. In this scenario, they should trade him this year at the deadline, but given the sullen paralysis the organ-I-zation appears to be in (five stages of grief and all that), trading him in the offseason seems likelier. In either situation, the Hawks would have time and space to tinker with whatever they got for Kane in the trade, and add guys on the cheap during the 2019-20 season.

With the youngsters coming to the defense, they might as well land a bunch more for the forward corps. In full-on rebuild mode it would no longer be necessary to get a solid top-pairing defenseman, so no more even pretending to pay Karlsson or Dougie Hamilton or anyone else to come here. Boqvist, Mitchell, and Beaudin, in some combination or all three, would be playing on Madison St. with zero-fucks-to-give Keith and Immovable Nachos as VETERAN PRESENCE. Maybe one of two of them gets packaged for a deal of equally talented youngins’. Toews would play the elder statesman role on the offensive side, and they could see what randos and kids can do with Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome for the next year.

This would also open up roster space for guys already in the Hawks system, read: Dylan Sikura. Oh, and remember Victor Ejdsell? What the hell ever happened to him? (He was hurt, yes, but I mean in the larger sense.) The Ice Hogs are bottom feeders right now too, so anyone in Rockford with any talent isn’t likely to develop in any meaningful way, so let’s see if they can do anything with the top club. And if they can’t, move them out. Then the pipeline is open to start gathering the talent and assets necessary for the Hawks to be consistently good again in a few years’ time.

Shut Up, Lana

I know, you understand how rebuilds work. But any logic or sensibility in this plan is overshadowed by the visceral feeling of loss. The loss of a player who, for better AND for worse, is beloved by a huge contingent of fans. And the loss of any pretense that the Hawks are still the same team we’ve known and loved these past 10+ years. Sure, some of the core would still be here, but without Patrick Kane this isn’t the same team, and there would be no chance of even pretending this is the same organization that won three Cups in five years. Quenneville’s firing was the wake-up call to that; Kane leaving would be the final death knell of any remaining argument.

That’s what hurts the most. Knowing beyond a shadow of a doubt that a golden age has ended and that mediocrity and, at best, normalcy are stretching out interminably before us. But it’s coming sooner or later. Something has to change significantly or else this team and this situation isn’t going to get any better. And nostalgia shouldn’t stand in the way of progress—the good times can be remembered and celebrated, but if we ever want them to come back, this road is coming.

Everything Else

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

The Hawks get pantsed in the nerd stats but come away with a shootout win on the backs of the power play and Cam Ward. Just like we all predicted. To the bullets!

– Cam Ward had a mostly good game tonight. He let in his embarrassingly soft goal early but looked like an NHL-caliber goalie for the rest of the game. You’d be hard pressed to blame him for Barzal’s breakaway goal, given how obscenely good he is. You’d be forgiven for assuming he’d have his ass stuffed and mounted in the shootout—which continues to be both the dumbest and most exciting way to end a game around—but he did what he was supposed to do. And 33 saves on 35 shots, 15 of which were the high-danger variety, is a strong performance. The Fels Motherfuck is consistent and indiscriminate.

– The Islanders’s first goal was one of the strangest I’ve seen in a while. In the moment, it was like watching that big fucking fish eat you World 3 in Mario Bros. 3: It was slow and shouldn’t have happened, and yet. While Jokiharju took the initial blame for it, the whole fucking play was bananas. Just look:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7293Iw2arI

This is a set play gone wrong. Anisimov wins the draw and Hayden starts to break out. The idea is for Jokiharju to retrieve the puck and pass it out to Hayden if possible, with Gustafsson as a release value. But Anisimov doesn’t win the puck cleanly, as it knocks off his left skate, slowing the puck down. Flippula then overpowers Anisimov, who manages to fail at getting in Filppula’s way. Watch Anisimov lean into Filppula in a way that allows Flippula to get around him. Anisimov’s only job after winning the faceoff is to keep Flippula away from the puck, and he doesn’t. With one fucking hand, Filppula gets around Artie, throws Harju off track, then stickhandles around Anisimov to backhand a soft goal.

Ward should have had it, but the main culprit on this play was Anisimov, not Harju. Harju was a bit slow on the uptake, but if Artie keeps Filppula off the puck and doesn’t get manhandled by a guy with one hand on his stick, none of that happens.

– The power play has scored in nine straight games, including two tonight. On the first, Kane magicked his way from the mid to high slot, feeding Strome on the goal line. Strome then did that thing that Toews used to do four years ago, crashing from the goal line and stuffing a shot past that standup-save chud Robin Lehner.

Kane didn’t get a point on the second PP goal, but he set that one up too. He hit Strome with a pass just below the goal line. Strome then belched it out to a waiting DeBrincat, who settled down the not-so-great pass, went backhand–forehand, and gave Toews a shot to bat the rebound out of mid-air.

– The Saad–Kampf–Kruger line was nails in possession tonight, with a respective 66.67, 61.54, and 57.69. Although I had stupid, stupid dreams about Saad scoring 90 this year (because I am stupid, you see), if Saad is going to carve out a strong 2nd/3rd wing spot, I won’t be terribly upset. Kampf is interesting, given his speed, defensive ability, and seemingly utter lack of scoring touch. He’s likely a faster version of Kruger 1.0, which is nice to have.

– On the other end, Keith–Seabrook looked putrid tonight. Each sported a 35+ CF% and CF% Rels of -17.87. Colliton can talk all day about how he wants to rotate younger guys to keep them from burning out or whatever other horseshit he wants to shovel to protect the apparently fragile egos of Keith and Seabrook. But until he scratches one or both of them after games like this, it’s going to be hard to take him seriously. I get that it’s not something he wants to broach, but be the fucking coach. If they’re going to suck together, break them up or give them less time. If they’re just going to suck regardless, fucking scratch them. It might be them who’s getting burned out.

Erik Gustafsson was a snuff film in his own end. He had at least three unforced turnovers. But you know what? As long as he keeps putting up points and QB’ing the most dangerous power play in the league since mid-December, I do not give a fuck at all.

– Outside of the turnover that led to Barzal’s breakaway, which was admittedly bad, our Large Irish Son looked good tonight. He was much better away from Koekkoek, as I assume most defensemen are, but even dragging Koekkoek around, Murphy posted a 56+ CF%, best among Hawks defensemen by far. I’ll never understand people who says he sucks. I get being mad that Hjalmarsson is gone, but that doesn’t make Murphy shitty.

Drake Caggiula isn’t a first liner, but Toews and Kane sure make him look like one. You can sort of see how he kinda fits as a fast puck retriever, and he looked especially good for a sequence in the first. But a lot of that is just the residue of Toews’s Renaissance and Kane’s Hart-worthy otherworldliness.

Not a bad way to go into the break here. We’re going to post a whole bunch of stuff that looks like the result of a boomers-and-blow binge during the bye, so we’ll see you there.

Booze du Jour: Makers 46 & High Life

Line of the Night: “Pat, listen up because this is right up your alley: The Hawks are hosting a margarita night.” –Konroyd

Everything Else

 vs. 

RECORDS: Islanders 29-15-4   Hawks 17-24-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: WGN

NO ONE LEAVES THE ISLAND: LighthouseHockey.com

The Hawks are one game away from a nine-day break that encompasses their bye and the All-Star game. So either that means they can leave it all on the ice tonight, or given how the season has gone, they’ll probably already have the buses running and lay a true, dense, unforgiving egg. I know which one I’d bet on! Still, if they’re still claiming that the season isn’t over then they’ll make a lot of noise about hitting the break with momentum carrying on from Sunday’s win–the now regular thrashing of the Capitals in the middle of the winter–to a second night. But when has that happened with this team?

We’ll start with the Hawks, who will put Cam Ward in net. I know this is going to send most into hysterics and apoplecticia, which isn’t a word, but it makes sense. Delia had his first rough outing last Sunday, so get him to the break to reset without the risk of backing it up with another bad one tonight. With Ward you’re at least guaranteed a bad one and everyone can go about their day. The Hawks had an optional this morning so no idea bout lineup changes, but it’s hard to imagine there would be any changes from a team that just put up eight. The one you’d expect is Jokiharju coming back in for Koekkoek, but they’ve talked about not pushing The Har Ju and giving him rest here and there, so maybe they’ll think a full two weeks off will have him primed for the rest of the season. But then trying to figure out what the Hawks think is why I drink. That and the crippling emotional problems, but mostly trying to figure out what the Hawks think.

To the Islanders, who are the league’s biggest surprise. While the Capitals, Penguins, and Blue Jackets were all doing a “Here, you take it” routine with the Metro lead, the Islanders rushed up from the background and took it themselves and ran off. They’re three points clear of Washington and Columbus and four of Pittsburgh. And no one thought they would be here. That tends to happen when you win 15 of 18, as the Isles have done since the middle of December.

How did they get here, David Byrne? As you might have guesses, since December 15th when this silliness began, the Islanders have the best SV% in the league at .952. The next best after that is the Stars at .942. so yeah, that’s something that’s sure to continue. Because the rest of their metrics are just middling, ranking 11-15th in the league in just about all of them. The 9.2% shooting-percentage since then doesn’t hurt either, but it’s their ridiculous goaltending for six weeks or so now that has seen them rocket up the standings.

This is a Barry Trotz team, so you know the drill. They’re going to be bothersome all over the ice, they never take a shift off, and they most certainly don’t ever trap. No sir, no trap here. Never heard of such a thing! Don’t be ridiculous! And they’ll get timely goals from the talent they have, which isn’t nonexistent here.

That’s a problem for the Hawks, who really need a defensively wonky opponent to create openings for their thin offensive skill. Sure, Kane will find ways against whoever, but after that DeBrincat is going to have to be more creator than he’s been asked now that he’s with Strome and a surge or two from Saad wouldn’t go amiss either. Trotz will have the generally confused and drowning Hawks defense under constant pressure, moving his trap up to the Hawks blue line as he’s been doing for a decade now. They will simply sit on the boards, both at the half-wall and the points, daring the Hawks to go up the middle or over their heads. The Hawks didn’t cope at all with it in their first meeting, giving up 721 shots or around there to the Isles before losing in overtime. They’ll try and do better tonight, we hope.

And then we all get a break from Hawks hockey! Doesn’t that sound nice?

 

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Leave it to a crusty old bastard like Lou Lamoriello to make us look even stupider than we normally do. Earlier in the month, when the Hawks were on the Island, we wrote the Lou didn’t really have a place in the game today. That he would hold the Isles back at a time when they needed forward thinkers. And basically the Islanders haven’t lost since, and have shot up to the top of the Metro Division. Sure, Lou is benefitting from the bonkers goaltending the Isles have been getting as much as anyone else, but here we are.

Still, we’re curious what lies ahead for the Islanders when everything shakes down to where it’s supposed to be. And that’s most important in the case of Anders Lee and Brock Nelson, who are both free agents when this season is over.

You would think that Lee would be the type of player that if Lamoriello were going to pay anyone, it would be him. He’s a true power forward, who put up 74 goals the past two seasons and is on pace for another 30 this year. Sure, he’s gotten to play with John Tavares for most of last year. But this year it’s been him and Nelson together, under the top line of Barzal. He scores where he goes.

The problem is that Lee is still a premier goal-scorer, and those guys get paid. And at the moment, Lee is making $3.7M against the cap, or just $700K more than Lou gave Leo Komarov. So yeah, he’s going to get a raise. And a big one. And the Isles have the cap space, with about $35 million for next year unclaimed. Lee’s 92 goals the past three seasons are ninth most in the league, more than Marchand, Skinner, and Kane. Marchand signed recently for a very team-friendly $6.1 million, and his linemate Pastrnak at $6.6M. That’s probably the number Lee has circled.

Nelson has been a pretty consistent second-line center for the Isles this year. With Barry Trotz upping the amount of times Barzal starts in the offensive zone from last year, it’s Nelson who has had to take on harder responsibilities. It hasn’t clipped his scoring at all, as he’s on pace to break his career-high of 45 points and possibly tickle his high in goals too 0f 28. Teams still need to be built down the middle, and a second-center like Nelson aren’t something you can pick up at the bodega.

And Lou has to keep in mind that no matter what he does, Barzal is going to be looking for a contract out of his entry-deal starting on July 1st. And he’s going be more in the $8-9M category than the $6-7M one.

The thing is, we can’t remember Lou ever paying someone that premium. Zach Parise walked out of New Jersey after banking about $3M a year out of his entry deal. He got a one-year deal at $6M when he was still restricted, but then headed to Minnesota for the real money. In Toronto Lou signed Patrick Marleau, but that of course was the aging veteran he could trust. It’s probably not a coincidence that Lou was moved along before it came time to negotiate with Nylander and Matthews. Lou has openly mocked the money that players make already, but someone has go to attract the residents of Long Island to that new arena in Belmont, right?

It’s a strange landscape in the Metro. The Jackets are about to be stripped of their two biggest talents. The Penguins and Capitals are at least on the back nine. The Flyers and Rangers are in rebuilds, and remain the Flyers and Rangers. The Devils are rebuilding as well. Splash a little cash, a shrewd move here or there, and there’s no reason the Islanders can’t fill the vacuum quickly. But has that ever been Lou’s way?

 

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The Lighthouse Project may be dead, but LighthouseHockey.com lives on. Dominik is their maven, and he joins us today to fill in on the blue and orange. 

The Islanders sit atop the Metro. In your wildest dreams did you think anyone would say that this year?

At no point did I expect the Islanders could say in 2018-19 they are in first place in the Metro. I don’t expect it to last, but I am now convinced they should be a playoff team, and one others won’t want to face.

Brock Nelson and Anders Lee are both free agents after the year. If things had gone as expected they might have been trade bait. Are they both getting extended now?

I think everyone has long expected Lee would be extended, at least from the point where they named him captain. He’s a risk because he’s a big body heading into his 30s, but he’s also someone who has continually improved his game rather than peaked and declined. And obviously, he’s not someone who needed Tavares to set the table for him. He’ll get a deal that is probably a little uncomfortably long, but not in an Andrew Ladd way.
Nelson is more uncertain. I expected him to be trade bait, but Trotz has taken a liking to him, cracking the code that long frustrated Islanders fans. (Nelson seemed like yet another drafted center who ended up at wing, yet Trotz has found a way to make him productive at center.) The Islanders are also fairly thin at center in their system, which gives Nelson leverage. And Nelson has taken them to the wire on the previous two RFA extensions, including accepting a one-year deal to bet on himself last summer. So he won’t be traded, but how the rest of this spring plays out will determine whether both sides can feel good about the other’s terms.
Jordan Eberle is UFA too, and while it’s hard to see all three being retained, it doesn’t sound like they’ll be selling any rentals.

Help us with something. It’s easy to attribute the Isles surprise run to Barry Trotz being a really good coach. They are best in the league in goals against. But every other metric against–attempts, shots, scoring chances–has them middle of the pack at best. While that’s a massive improvement from last year, isn’t this just having two goalies playing really well?

On their surprising standing: No, it’s because Barry Trotz is a really good coach. The goaltending has been great — and certainly they were key to banking wins early on when those other metrics looked pretty bad. But look at the metrics after the first month of the season and a different story emerges, certainly a legit top-10 team right now. So Trotz did what he always does, locking down on defense first and then building from there. That organization and predictability has helped Greiss and Lehner, who both always had real talent, rediscover their games.
You remember how frustrating Trtoz’s Nashville teams were even when they had no talent? Well the Islanders have become like that — organized, robotic, suffocating — except they do have some talent on top of it. It’s fun to watch in a gawk-at-this-experiment kind of way. Finally calling up Devon Toews and using him regularly has helped, but Toews is one of several examples of decent talent finally organized and channeled into the right place.
Hell, Trotz has even figured out how to make a functioning team out of a roster that added Matt Martin, Leo Komarov and Valtteri Filppula (and extending Ross Johnston for four years) over the summer — a gluttonous helping of bottom-six acquisitions even Trotz admitted he wasn’t sure about until Lou “made the case.” Basically those guys are all still what they are, but under Trotz they have a role and are playing to their ceilings. I’m sure it’s helped that collectively the team has a post-Tavares chip on their shoulders. As we see so often in this sport, it’s easy for everyone to stay on the same page and do all the necessary but less sexy grunt work game after game when the perceived common enemy is outside the room.

Before the season it was thought the Isles would be something of a project. Is their current standing going to see them make a deal or two that might be considered short-sighted down the road?

As for the trade deadline, I have no idea what Lou will do, and it doesn’t seem like anyone ever does since he keeps a tight-sealed ship. But it’s even harder to figure now because this is Third Life Lou. In a lot of ways he’s the old ’90s GM with old-school ways and archaic priorities (e.g. no facial hair or high number because I said so), so I’d fear him adding some Grinding Veteran With Winning Experience. But in other ways he appears to have adapted at least a bit to the post-post-lockout-cubed NHL, and is realistically evaluating the team. Meanwhile, Trotz thinks they’re still a year away from being ready to contend and their lineup has been stable…so short-sighted moves seem unlikely.

 

 

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At some point, you’d think goalie coaches would be considered like pitching coaches. Then again, they may be as they tend to stick around with teams through multiple coaches. Jimmy Waite has been here through Quenneville and now Colliton. You’ll find that a lot of place.

But Barry Trotz knows better, and has brought Mitch Korn everywhere. Korn turned Rinne into the first version of standout Rinne that he was, and then after he left he fell apart in the playoffs in 2015, much to the delight of Hawks fans everywhere. The Korn traipses off to Washington with Trotz, and turns Braden Holtby from pretty good into a Vezina winner. When that didn’t work, Philip Grubauer threw a .920+ until Holtby was ready in the playoffs.

Now Korn is in the Island, and he’s finally unlocking what everyone thought Robin Lehner could be as well as keeping Thomas Greiss on an even-keel. Both goalies had flashed this kind of form before in their careers, but it seems like Korn is always producing this from whoever his charge is. Hell, Korn even got Carter Hutton to be something when he was a nothing. It happens too much to ignore.

Which of course leaves Trotz to play his boring-ass, it’s-n0t-a-trap hockey and make it look damn effective. Sure, Trotz gets most everything out of players, but none of it works without a goalie putting up a .925. Which is even harder to do in this environment, and yet they still are. They must hate fun.

Also Korn is a weirdo who lives in a hotel.

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