Everything Else

Game #25 – Stars vs. Hawks: Q&A With Taylor Baird

By Sam Fels 2401 0

Taylor Baird is the editor of DefendingBigD. com. You can follow her on Twitter @TaylorDBaird.

The Stars have had something of the same wonky start that the Hawks have. Why hasn’t Hitchcock’s charms worked miracles yet (we’re not exactly Hitch fans, if you can’t tell)? 
It’s not just a coach and his system that was overhauled this offseason. The Stars have several new faces this year, and some old faces that have struggled mightily so far (::side-eyes Jason Spezza::) It’s a lot to juggle while learning what this system needs every night. Their start reflects that.
On the plus side, John Klingberg is nearly a point-per-game, and his metrics have bounced back to where they were two seasons ago. He definitely had a dip last year, what’s been different this campaign?
It’s maybe more a continuance of the end of his previous season. After Klingberg got over his struggles, and found a consistent partner that complemented him in Esa Lindell, he played well down the stretch. He brought that confidence into this season.
The Stars have a secondary scoring problem. Radulov, Seguin, Benn, and Klingberg all have over 20 points, but no one else has over 11. Who needs to pick it up? 
Jason Spezza is the key to secondary scoring, and he has been very snake bitten to start the season. Radek Faksa, who had himself a good night against Vegas with a hat trick, would be another pick as someone that needs to step up (and when he does, natural hat tricks occur. Who knew?) 
We like to ask about our lost boy Stephen Johns. It felt like Lindy Ruff completely underrated him even while giving him human shield starts and competition. What does he look like under Hitch? 
He has been up and down this season, but that’s not exactly surprising given the way the Stars have played so far as a whole. It feels like he’s really stepped up after Marc Methot went down with injury. He is one player that I believe will benefit from Hitchcock’s system, and it’s possible that we are starting to see it consistently now.
 
Ben Bishop has disappointed since coming over in the summer. What’s been his problem? Is the Dallas crease just cursed?
Whoever stuck a pin in the Dallas goaltender voodoo doll, we’d like to have a word with you. Bishop looks better to the eyeball than his stats may show. It’s because he makes the key saves in the key moment, something that doesn’t show on a box score. He’s been the reason the Stars haven’t been slaughtered in some games, and he’s the reason the Stars are often still in others. He’s rarely been the reason for a loss. The guys in front of him have struggled and therefore he has at times too. But overall, I personally feel more confident with Bishop in net – a feeling that’s been missing in Dallas for a few seasons now.
Everything Else

Game #25 – Stars vs. Hawks: Douchebag Du Jour – Pepe, Henri, Fernand, Lestat, Antoine

By Sam Fels 1900 0

One of the wonderful things about hockey is its propensity to toss a real villain at you. While other sports have a player or two that certain fanbases loathe, it’s not as prevalent. In hockey, every fanbase has at least one player on another team that could very well end up with their picture in the local post office. They probably have one per team. They live on long after their playing careers are over as a fire ant stinging a part of the memory. Say “Dino” or “Burr” or “Burrows” to any Hawks fan and they’ll involuntarily spit on the ground.

Antoine Roussel certainly wants to be in that group. And he’s pretty good at getting there. It’s like a mission with him, and while the effort put in kind of ruins it, he’s going to be remembered either way. The villainy he aspires to should come naturally. You shouldn’t see the gears turning within, but with Roussel you do. He never shuts up. He’s dirty. He actually does fight people much bigger than him and holds his own. And he also occasionally pops up with an annoying goal or two to make it worse. Hockey fans won’t tell you this but pests and rapscallions that can actually play only angry up the blood more.

Roussel gets another rub in that he’s actually French. Not fake-French like David Perron or whichever other dink comes from Quebec and tries to act European to have some sort of superiority over the rest of the continent that makes them speak English anyway. But it’s easy for the French to play the villain, because it’s what we’re used to. Not that we ever have a particular beef with the French, but both sides have always acted like it. The only way Roussel could do this better was if he was British. We’re attuned to boo the French, and they’re attuned to soak it in.

Roussel is a confluence of hockey villain and French. It really couldn’t be more perfect. And he seems to know it. Which only makes it better. Hockey could use more characters.

Game #25 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #25 – Stars vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels 1595 0

All stats at even-strength unless noted, and adjusted for score and venue. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey. 

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

Game #25 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Thought It Was Too Cold For A Circus

By Sam Fels 2099 0

There really is no better theater than when a Canadian team is bad. And it’s exponentially better when that team was expected to be good. So here’s the latest lunacy going on in Edmonton.

This is hardly the first time we’ve seen that a goon’s absence is the main fulcrum for a team’s collapse. It usually comes out of Boston, and word is their construction of a Shawn Thornton statue to place in the middle of the dressing room is almost complete. And no, you won’t be allowed to step on it, though that won’t stop Pierre McGuire from making love to it upon his every visit to TD Garden, along with some possible pitstops as he’s covering games anywhere in the Northeast. And there’s an image to get you through the rest of the day.

Hockey is the leader in attaching “value” to players who have none and calling it leadership. It kind of works because I’m sure players actually buy into this shit. If they were to look at it logically, you’d probably get Leon Draisaitl thinking, “Why the fuck am I going to listen to a guy whose inability to skate four minute competently causes me to have to skate 22 a night and then kill his penalties?” Yeah, that would be a fair question.

It’s not germane to hockey, of course. Remember when the Cubs’ early season struggles were blamed on the absence of David Ross and the pool noodle he brought to the plate? But hey, Ross at least was still a very good defensive catcher who could throw guys out. He had value somewhere.

None of this is helped by the fact that the team Matt Hendricks defected to, the Winnipeg Jets, are having a surprise start to the season. But to the hockey media, especially north of the 49th. there has to be a mythic quality to everything. This stems from the bullshit narrative that hockey players are somehow “special” instead of the same genetic freaks that every other professional athlete is. So the Jets success isn’t really just based on Connor Hellebuyck finally fulfilling the promise he showed in lower leagues and ages and the Jets shooting the lights out. No, there’s an element of magic to it, magic that only “glue” guys like Hendricks contain and have spread out of his pores and infect everyone else in the dressing room. Because Blake Wheeler hasn’t been perhaps the league’s premier power forward before Hendricks showed up.

As for Edmonton, the problems are so obvious that I suppose everyone there is just fatigued of talking about them. Their blue line sucks. It’s sucked for years. They have no bottom six or really any wingers of note when Draisaitl is in the middle. And Cam Talbot just hasn’t been quite as good as he was to bail them all out. And they have no backup again, so he’s playing all the games and his muscles and tendons are going to be paste at any moment now.

But clearly, no team can just lose. They must be missing something, like a dunderhead who can’t play barking at them from the bench on how many minutes per goal they can take to overhaul a two-goal deficit or talk shit from the bench. That’s my favorite part, how these are called leaders because they talk while not playing. Yeah you know what happens when you talk shit to LeBron from the bench? He drops 40 on you and then goes and sits on the bench himself because his team is up 25. I live for the day that like, Tarasenko scores a goal and then takes the puck and flips it to Hendricks as he skates by because he wouldn’t shut up from the bench. Hockey would lose its fucking mind and it would be hilarious.

If Connor McDavid can’t be a captain because Hendricks isn’t around, then maybe they shouldn’t have put the “C” on him in the first place. If he doesn’t think his skills and importance don’t give him every right to jack up Milan Lucic and get him to actually do things that help the team, what’s the point?

But no, it’s never that simple, is it?

Everything Else

It ain’t broke, so don’t go fixin’ it

By Adam Hess 1623 0

The worst kept secret in hockey right now is that Alex DeBrincat is tearing up the NHL. After getting off to bit of a slow start, with just four points in his first 11 games, he went on a tear in November, with 15 points in his 14 games (including October 28). In that time, he’s had two point streaks of three games and one of four, and notched four points in the Hawks’ Monday-Tuesday back-to-back against Anaheim and Nashville this week, including his first career hat-trick against the Ducks, before scoring another goal Thursday night against the Stars.

When we did the player previews back in September, I wrote in pretty good detail about how much scoring potential Top Cat had. He tore up the OHL year after year, and basically only fell as far as he did in the 2016 draft because hockey can’t get over it’s fascination with size and girth. Despite all of our nerves that the Blackhawks would ignore his strong pre-season and make him start the season in the A, he forced the issue and was able to make the team out of camp. And he hasn’t disappointed at all.

Among the Blackhawks, Whiskers is second on the team in both goals and points, with 10 and 18, respectively. In the league, he’s tied for 36th in goals and tied for 70th in points, which is pretty damn good for a 19-year-old with 24 games under his belt. He has as many or more goals than the likes of Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad, and several other stars. Again, that’s good.

What’s really good is the fact that he’s done all this despite the fact that he’s spent most of the year condemned out of the top six by his mustachioed coach for a reason that has yet to been made public. And though I’m not here to re-hash arguments made on here already, as Sam detailed the other day, Q hasn’t explained himself in any way to lend justification to ADB’s tethering to Patrick Sharp’s opposite wing, or Nick Schmaltz playing wing instead of center, which is pretty much definitely keeping ADB on that third line. Lucky for Q, I am here to do it for him.

We don’t really need an explanation from Q, anyhow, because we all know that any explanation we might get would be completely unsatisfactory and/or filled with some random bullshit. We’d probably hear some reference to the idea of him being on the third line if it’s meant to avoid tougher competition, but at this point Top Cat has proven that he’s worthy of, at the very least, an opportunity to face that competition with higher quality teammates, so that argument would fall flat with most Hawks fans. Even with that, though, I still wonder if any sort of lineup promotion is really best for DeBrincat right now.

We’ve been stressing our desire for DeBrincat to play on a wing with Schmaltz and Kane for so long that there’s hardly any of the dead horse left to beat, but his hat trick on Monday gave us an even better look at the fit those three could have. Twice during line changes, he added goals that were assisted by – guess who – Schmaltz or Kane. The three of them have such similar skill sets and playing styles that the fit seems obvious, but with the recent success of the Schmaltz-Anisimov-Kane second line, it’s hard to imagine Q making too many changes to the lineup right now. Schamltz is still probably better off playing the pivot than the wing, but that’s a conversation for another time. The point is, all three of the guys on that second line have been playing well this year, especially in the most recent stretch of games, so you could question if breaking up that line even makes any sense at all right now.

DeBrincat, though, has also shown that he’s good enough to elevate whoever he ends up on a line with at any given time. Look no further than the Hawks’ first goal against Nashville on Tuesday, when he won a puck battle deep in the offensive zone, on a rush, during a line change, and then threaded a pass through all five Predators that was so perfect even Tommy Wingels couldn’t fuck up the tap in. If the Hawks want to roll out three scoring lines – which we know they do – there really isn’t a better fit to be the main threat on that third line right now than Top Cat. Do you trust Richard Panik to produce meaningfully away from Toews and Saad? What about Anisimov without Kane? Do you really want Patrick Sharp to be the focal point of a scoring line at this point? Me either.

So while Top Cat is most definitely not a third line winger by any stretch of the imagination, and having him on another line might provide a better fit for his style, he might actually be best off left alone for now.

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – November 29th

By Sam Fels 1351 0

First Screen Viewing

Lightning v. Bruins – 6:30

Somehow this is a “rivalry,” because they played in the playoffs once. You might remember it from 2011 as the first boring-as-shit Guy Boucher-led conference final you’ve had the displeasure of continuing to breathe through. And because it’s Boucher and nothing ever happens, they both went seven life-is-meaningless-and-empty games. Anyway, of the four games tonight only two feature two teams above .500 so we’ll pick this one. The Lightning are still fun, even if their coach spends most of the night finding out where the good BU parties are (hint: there is no such thing). The Bruins are…the Bruins. There’s Bergeron and that’s about it. You can marvel at the sheer moon-ness of Charlie McAvoy’s face.

Other Games

Senators vs. Canadiens – 6:30

Ducks vs. Blues – 8pm

Jets vs. Avalanche -8:30

Everything Else

Ain’t It Fun?

By Sam Fels 2485 0

There’s many things you can label the ’17-’18 Hawks so far, but one of them isn’t “boring.” Whether they’ve been playing like dogshit earlier in the year or this current form where they’ve played pretty well (whatever last night’s result), the Hawks haven’t been dull. In previous years, even when they were the class of the league, things could get rote. The past two years when they’ve had their wonky periods, it hasn’t been nearly as interesting at this team even when it’s not playing well.

You’ve heard us mention it before, but the Hawks are the highest-event team in the league. By that we mean there are more total attempts, both for and against the Hawks, in their games than anyone else’s. What’s staggering is just how high-event they are.

Ok, it’s going to get a little number-y here, so I’m putting that out there so you can get your glasses on or make some tea or stretch a bit. Whatever you need to do to receive the data about to be thrown at you. Ok, here we go.

So far this year, the Hawks have 108.4 total attempts at even-strength in their games per 60 minutes (adjusted for score and such). This is tops in the league, and by some distance. The next highest is Anaheim at 104.5. That gap between 1st and second of four attempts per 60 minutes is the same between Anaheim and the Rangers in 11th.

What’s a bit staggering is that if this were to continue through the end of the season, it would be the highest mark by miles in five seasons. No team in the past five years has had more than 103 attempts in their games in the past five years (Ottawa in ’13-’14). The Hawks are basically miles above what has come in recent history.

But ah…. it’s not so simple. If you liked the homer binge in MLB this year, then hockey might just be for you this year as well. At the moment, 11 teams are averaging more than 100 attempts in their games per 60 minutes at even-strength. In the previous four seasons, no more than four teams have averaged more than 100 attempts in their games per season. Clearly, something is going on.

Now, as we know, things tend to flatten out as the season goes along, players get bored/hurt, coaches start reining things in to consolidate position, whistles go in pockets. We’d have to see what the marks look like in previous years at this point in the schedule. But still, it’s something of a different environment. Has the crackdown on slashing and such opened up a little more room on the ice? So far it sure looks like it, given how many teams are becoming more high-event. As we said, the Senators back in ’13-’14 had the highest event games in the past five years, and currently six teams are above that mark so far this season.

What does it mean for success? That’s a little more sobering. Currently, the six teams above that 103.5 mark are the Hawks, Ducks, Flames, Canadiens, Hurricanes, and Penguins. None of these teams are atop their divisions, though the Flames and Penguins are at least in touching distance. Last year, the top five event teams were the Leafs, Penguins, Stars, Islanders, and Coyotes. That’s a pretty decent team, champs, and three non-playoff teams.

In ’15-’16, the top five event teams were the Stars, Flyers, Leafs, Avs and Islanders. That’s three playoff teams and two big bags of suck in the Leafs and Avs. And none of the Flyers, Stars, or Islanders saw the conference final.

In ’14-’15, the top five event teams were the Stars (sensing a theme?), Islanders, Sharks, Coyotes, Flames. The Islanders and Flames made the playoffs, and only the Flames won a round.

In ’13-’14, the top five event teams were the Senators, Leafs, Sharks, Hurricanes, and Stars. The Sharks were a 111-point team that blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings (you might have heard about it), the Stars made the playoffs before getting whacked by the Ducks.

So yeah, you can make the playoffs if you’re this entertaining, but of the 26 teams we just discussed only one went on to win a Cup and there hasn’t even been another conference finalist on that list.

When looking at just the Hawks, this is a huge increase in their attempts for and against. So it’s not like you can just say, “Oh their defense is responsible.” Quite simply their games are just more open, their offense creating more than it has in five years. But we’ve never see a Quenneville team surrender over 50 attempts per game, and it doesn’t appear to be a recipe for success.

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Game #24 – Snakebitten – Hawks 2, Predators 3

By Adam Hess 3361 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

In general, I’m not a fan of back-to-backs that involve travel. I am especially not a fan of them when it involves having to go play the Predators, who are arguably the fastest team in the West. You’re gonna see a naturally slower Blackhawks team going up against a pack of shitheads and fuckwads that are pretty much going to skate circles around them, and that’s pretty much what happened tonight as Nashville swarmed the Hawks to the tune of a 3-2 win. Let’s get to it:

  • The thing is, though, I am not that frustrated or disheartened by this loss. Again, the Hawks are on the second night of a back-to-back, and had to travel in the middle of the night. Nashville had the day off yesterday, so they were clearly more fresh, and since you’d already give them the legs advantage in this matchup, I’d say all the Preds did was hold serve. The Hawks looked fine and created some chances that they unfortunately couldn’t capitalize on. Move on.
  • I am slightly confused, though, by the decision to start Crawford at home against Anaheim and Forsberg on the road against Nashville. Not that Forsberg played poorly tonight, because he was actually solid, but the decision was just puzzling. I guess it makes a bit more sense to give your starter the extra night off on the back end of it, and the more welcoming environment of home (the Nashville crowd is insufferable anyhow), but I would’ve been inclined to save Crow for the better, divisional opponent.
  • But Forsberg ended up playing very well in the spot. He made a lot of key saves, looked confident, and was pretty much in the right spot for just about every shot Nashville took. I can’t pin any of the Preds goals on him. I’ll take more of this from him.
  • Patrick Kane was snakebitten tonight, and it became pretty clear that it got to him. NBC did a lot of focusing on him because of his missed chances in the first, and he just looked frustrated. Then he took a silly penalty in the third that led to the third Nashville goal, sealing the deal.
  • Garbage Dick wasn’t the only one that couldn’t catch a break, though. Just about the whole top nine was unable to convert on some good chances. Tommy Wingels and Lance Bouma had the Hawks’ only goals. So.
  • Top Cat did another Top Cat thing tonight, winning a puck battle in behind the Nashville goal (turns out being big isn’t necessary for those, who knew) and then sending a fucking dime of a pass through all five Predators that was so perfectly placed that even Tommy Wingels couldn’t fuck it up. Seriously, go watch the play. My pants got a bit tighter.
  • Speaking of, Wingels was a consistent scoring threat tonight. Yes you read that right. No, I don’t want to type it ever again. But here’s how surreal it was: Q put him out with the net empty and 52 seconds left after a Nashville icing, and I did not scream at my television. Life is weird.
  • Guess which defenseman got spun around and caught out of position on Nashville’s first goal. You only get one, but that’s all you need.
  • All three games between these teams have been one goal games this year. These teams are closer than most would like to give the Hawks credit for.

Next is Dallas on Thursday night. Onward.

Beer du jour: Dos Perros by Yazoo Brewing. I thought a Nashville beer might bring some luck in that city. I am truly sorry.

Everything Else

Game #24 – Hawks vs. Predators Preview, Overdraft Notification – Get Stimulated

By Matt McClure 2918 0

 at 

Game Time: 7:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBCSN National, WGN-AM 720
Fuck David Poile: On The Forecheck

With the next stop on this Freakout Hell Bus Ride of 5 games in 7 nights for the Hawks, they find themselves once again in Nash Vegas, where they’ll take on the league’s secret scumbag team masquerading as its sweetheart, the Predators, who somehow once again look different than the last time the Hawks saw them.