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Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
He Could Really Make It If He Just Got His Shit Together: The Royal Half, JFTC
As the Freakout Hell Bus Ride of 5 games in 7 nights comes to a close on West Madison tonight, the Hawks are looking to avoid losing their fourth straight game after having gone 1-1-2 so far, with the resurgent Kings now waiting for them as the capper.
Ever since the Kings first Cup, and totally ramped up by the Kings-Hawks Double of ’13 and ’14, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews have been handcuffed together. They’ve been essentially the same player every since they came into the league a year apart. Toews was the slightly better goal-scorer, Kopitar the slightly better playmaker. They were clearly the heartbeat of multiple Cup winners. Toews was a dominant force in ’13, and Kopitar dribbled Toews’s head like a basketball in ’14.
And being a year older, Kopitar seemed to hit a wall a year before Toews did. In ’14-’15, Kopitar dropped to just 16 goals and 64 points, both the lowest since his rookie year. Toews was racking up another ring. And then Toews followed Kopitar into the dungeon of age, failing to register 60 points for the first time since his rookie year.
Neither of them improved last year, and both faced serious discussion if they’re dominant days were over. And it was more than just an individual question, because both meant so much to their teams that if they were done being premier #1 centers in the league, it almost certainly meant their teams’ time as true contenders were over as well.
The hope for Hawks fans is that with Kopitar always being a year ahead of Toews, his renaissance so far this year is a harbinger of what Toews can do on the donkey end of the age of 30.
Kopitar comes into tonight’s game at over a point-per-game, and some of his underlying numbers are the best they’ve been since the Kings’ last run. His relative-Corsi again over +3.00, a hallmark of his days as the Hart candidate no one bothered to stay up and watch (including his simply other worldly 61% mark in 2014). His expected-goals relative to his team are up as well from the last two years, but where the numbers jump out is his individual ones.
Kopitar is averaging three more attempts at even-strength this year than he has in the past three seasons, and in line with his 2012-2014 heyday. His individual expected-goals is up to 0.77, which again is way higher than he’d put up the past three years.
Has there been some luck? Oh, sure. He’s shooting 21% at evens and 19% overall. That’s not going to continue. And Kopitar is still tasked with facing the toughest competition the Kings see. Even at just 30 to ask someone to combat top lines and score like a top line seems an awfully big ask.
Clearly, Kopitar has benefitted from the presence of rookie Alex Iafallo. While Iafallo’s numbers aren’t impressive, his game that has real dash and creativity has allowed Kopitar to not have to create and score his own chances. Last year, Kopitar spent most of the season with clinically dead Marian Gaborik and clinically dumb Dustin Brown. The year before that Kopitar was dragging around Brown and Milan Lucic, and you’d be hard pressed to find bigger dummards to have as wingers. Combined with Darryl Sutter’s system, Kopitar was basically forced to try and bulldoze everything. Even Brown is scoring now, getting to just stand around while Kopitar and Iafallo exploit openings. They can be more expressive.
The coaching change has also been a boon, as Kopitar is now allowed to carry the puck through the neutral zone and even try to enter through the middle, something Sutter would have sentenced Kopitar to shit-shoveling duty at the Sutter Farm for in the past. Kopitar has more freedom ever, and drawing defenses to him gives more space to Iafallo, who can actually do something with it unlike Lucic or Gaborik checking his investment portfolio.
Cleary, a coaching change isn’t going to help Toews anytime soon. But realizing a center with that many miles can no longer do everything, giving him a dynamic winger to take some of the creation pressure off seems to have been the trick for Kopitar. Would DeBrincat be that for Toews? Sadly, we may never find out.
Game #27 Preview
Once again we had to dig up one of our favorite lunatics on Twitter to find out about the Kings. Follow Aaron @atf13atf.
The Kings sit atop the Pacific. They have a +19 goal difference. Anze Kopitar is a point-per-game again. Certainly much better than last year. What’s been the change? Is it simply the one behind the bench?
It probably is just the personnel behind the bench, both a combination of new voices (Offensive Coordinator Pierre Turgeon) coming in and old voices going out (such as Sutter, and Davis Payne who is now in charge of the Sabres’ 30th ranked power play). Stevens has been an assistant since the Terry Murray years in 2010, but finally gets his shot to run things. In a league where every team tries to win every game 2-1, Darryl Sutter’s attempts to win every game 1-0 had grown stale.
Dustin Brown – 21 points. What kind of god allowed this?
When the team went through eastern Canada a month into the season, every article about Brown (and Kopitar) concluded that they each looked like a piano was removed from their back. Alec Iafallo, definitely someone I’d known about before training camp ended, has been a revelation with a bunch of scouts saying they missed him. I’m sure Brown’s 13% shooting (and especially Kopitar’s 19%) to come down a bit, but at least their contracts look somewhat above water again.
Who is Adrian Kempe?
Called up last season to try and get some scoring going, which was ultimately useless when Sutter played him about 90 seconds a night. Not to be confused with his brother Mario Kempe, Darcy Kuemper, or Matt Kemp. Looking good so far this year with Toffoli and Pearson.
The Kings have gotten yeoman’s work out of Jonathan Quick. Certainly full health is a part of it, did the rest of barely playing last year also contribute? Have you noticed him doing anything differently?
A wise man named Cieslak once said, “Book is out on your goaltender. He’s only gonna stop between 90 and 95 percent of shots faced. The league knows all about it.” Quick, who’s been much closer to the 90% than anyone expects for oh, half his career now, is sitting at his same .929 from 2011-12. I guess having an intact groin helps these guys.
So is this start for real or are the Kings riding a top line and their goaltending brilliance and will crash down?
Their shooting percentage is above average, ish, even with Jeff Carter out for still another couple of weeks. The goaltending has definitely carried them a bit, but the games don’t look over if they go down 1-0 in the second period. They’re certainly watchable again, a marked improvement over even the Cup years.
Prediction: J-F Berube shuts out his old organization. I redeem my giveaway Chick-Fil-A coupon this week after the Kings take the required five penalties.
Game #27 Preview
There was a time when Dustin Brown was one of our favorite players. He was a true bowling ball of a forward who could give you 25 goals. When rumors popped up of the Kings looking to deal him and the Hawks at least kicking the tires, our glee rose to a near dangerous level.
It didn’t happen, and then Brown’s feet fell off, and he was basically nothing more than a construction horse with elbows. He couldn’t get there, and all he could do was cross-check, elbow, and high-stick his way into anything of note. The only memorable thing he’d done in years was nearly ruin Tomas Hertl’s career before it had a chance to really take off with a wandering knee.
And that’s how it’s supposed to happen. A power forward only has a short window of usefulness, before the miles and bruises combine to reduce them to an angry traffic cone. You’re supposed to look like Milan Lucic now. Or Corey Perry now. Or Scott Hartnell now.
So what the fuck is this? Brown has 21 points already. He hasn’t had more than 36 in a season since ’11-’12. He has 10 goals already. He hasn’t had more than 18 since that same season. This is not how it’s supposed to go. Players like Brown are supposed to get old and decrepit so we can laugh at them and make up for the years of longing and jealousy we had. Brown is depriving us of that this year. They’re supposed to get bought out and wash up in Arizona or Florida or Vancouver and fill out their days being a step behind the play and scoring the one goal in a 5-1 loss in January.
The one thing we can hold onto is that Brown still has four years left after this one on his ridiculous $5.8 million per year contract, and is still a buyout candidate down the line. Brown should be taking notes from Marian Gaborik, who’s been nothing more than a reverse-ATM for a few years now. This is bullshit.
Follow the script, Dustin.
Game #27 Preview
All stats adjusted for score and venue. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey.
Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes
CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60
CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against
G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes
xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.
PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.
Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone
TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against
Game #27 Preview
All analytic stats at even-strength. Info courtesy of Corsica and Hockey DB.
Game #27 Preview
The Hawks and Stars played each other for the second time in three nights on Saturday, and they went past their allotted 60 minutes yet again. This time it went to a shootout, and the Stars grabbed the extra point again by going 2-for-2 while the Hawks went 0-for-2. Bullets:
Next is LA tomorrow night. Onward.
Quote of the night: “Nice job by Brent Seabrook. He didn’t have any speed whatsoever.” – Steve “Somehow I Have Broadcast Job” Konroyd.
Sharks vs. Lightning – 6pm
You probably didn’t notice, because they’re on late and it’s hard to remember who’s still left, but the Sharks have risen to the third spot in the Pacific and have multiple games in hand on both the Knights Who Don’t Say Las and the Kings. They’ll visit the East’s best in the Lightning tonight in what should be a pretty fiery affair. Both these teams create a lot, both have a fair amount of firepower on offer.
Second Screen Viewing
Oilers vs. Flames – 9pm
First Battle Of Alberta in Calgary, and if the last-minute Kris Russell own goal that is unquestionably the highlight of the year didn’t cause Edmonton to swallow itself, then a beatdown from the Flames ought to do it. The Flames are clutching to the last playoff spot in the West, and if the Oilers aren’t completely fucked they’re days away from being so. Any revival would have to start tonight. Should they lose, especially big, we’re going to get true panic stations from Peter Chiarelli and it’s going to be purely awesome. Don’t miss it.
Other Games
Blues vs. Wild – 5pm
Leafs vs. Canucks – 6pm
Wings vs. Canadiens – 6pm
Sabres vs. Penguins – 6pm
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals
Panthers vs. Hurricanes – 6pm
Devils vs. Coyotes – 7pm
Ducks vs. Predators – 7pm
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RECORDS: Hawks 12-9-4 Stars 14-10-1
PUCK DROP: 8pm
TV: NBCS CHICAGO
WE GOIN’ HONKY TONKIN’: Defending Big D
The back half of a traditional, divisional home-and-home comes tonight in North Texas, with the Hawks looking to greatly improve on what was a pretty piss poor effort on Thursday. We knew fatigue would come into play somewhere in this hellacious five-in-seven stretch, and at least for the first two periods the Hawks looked leggy. They almost pulled it back in the 3rd, which shows you the flaws in this Dallas team, but their power play problems clipped their hopes.
Obviously, not much can change with these teams in just two days… unless it’s the Hawks and an injury to Corey Crawford puts their whole season teetering on the edge of the Great Abyss. Make no mistake, if Crow were to miss two to three weeks–as he very well might–and the Hawks have a complete balls-up during that, they could be utterly fucked without any of the customary fun before you’re singing Auld Lang Syne. Anton Forsberg has been better than his numbers suggest–that belch-with-barf in Denver skews things–but the Hawks in no way wanted to depend on him full-time this early in the season. Or at all. And J.F. Berube has a terminal case of being J.F. Berube. With his 21 games in the NHL and middling AHL numbers, the Hawks won’t want to break that glass unless it’s a total emergency. Yes, you should be uneasy.
The Stars also play tomorrow night in Denver, so there’s a chance that the Hawks could get a look at Kari Lehtonen tonight which would help the cause, or at least would be likely to. There look to be a couple lineup changes for the Stars as well. Curtis McKenzie was called up to write a sermon that no one will hear as Antoine Roussel has apparently picked up something, and I’m just going to go ahead and say some combo of syphilis and plague because I want to. Martin Hanzal will still miss out, and Julius HONKA! HONKA! won’t get in the lineup so they can keep trained ox Jamie Oleksiak in.
What’s a little worrisome is that with the matchup-advantage at home, the Hawks were still unable to keep Tyler Seguin’s line under control at all. So Hitch can be confident of throwing them out against Toews again and getting chances, or throwing them at the bottom six and having battle station alarms going off in the Hawks zone all night. Expect to see the Seguin line out against Forsling and Rutta at every chance, and don’t expect Q to chase matchups too much because he just doesn’t do it much in the regular season.
Even with Faksa’s and Janmark’s scratching the sheet on Thursday, with Spezza’s wrong-chalice-like decay and Hanzal’s injury, this is still pretty much a one-line team. The Hawks did keep them from scoring at least on Thursday… and lost anyway. So… not encouraging.
With Forsberg in net the Hawks might be tempted to play it a little safer on the road, keeping the third forward as high as possible and dropping their d-men back at the first hint of trouble. Hitch won’t take the foot off the gas too much at home and with the Hawks on the their back up ‘tender. He also won’t stand for the Stars racking up seven penalties again.
Not to keep beating a dead horse–and I don’t know why you keep bringing me down–but given how jammed up things are in the West wildcard picture and given how the strata in the Central have separated, the Hawks can’t afford to drop too many points to teams that are joining them in this mud-covered rabble. They got a point against the Stars last out but really can’t give them more than the two they already did. It’ll be hard to lose touch, but it’ll also be even harder to make up ground. Getting to overtime is something of a loss. Need a regulation win here.
Game #26 Preview
We know that the coverage and view of Russian players in the NHL can get a tad skewed due to some very outdated and quite simply jingoistic feelings. Due to some bad actors, much more than should have have had to deal with suspicion and being labeled lazy, greedy, uncaring, and weak, or all of the above. And really, there are no more players from Russia who exhibit these characteristics than those who come from Canadian backwaters. But none of them are named “Gordie,” nor do they know what “Timbo’s” is, so they get treated differently
Alex Radulov has had a strange odyssey of a career, and he has been labeled with all of the above during it. Some of it may be warranted, maybe some of it not. Let’s go back through it.
You don’t remember, because it was so long ago and it took place before the Hawks got good which as we know was before hockey existed, but ten years ago Radulov put up 58 points at the age of 21 with the Predators. He was one of the most exciting prospects in the game. With Radulov, Suter, Weber, Rinne, Hamhuis, and Legwand it was thought that the Preds would be challenging for the Central for years to come.
It never worked out that way, partly because Radulov immediately fucked off back to Russia after that season. He still had one year on his entry-level deal, but clearly didn’t feel that as an RFA he was going to make what he could back in the KHL And that wasn’t wrong, but that didn’t stop the Preds and the NHL from putting up a fight to keep him here. It didn’t work, Radulov was suspended by Nashville and he spent the next four seasons in Russia.
Radulov didn’t help his cause much after that fourth seasons in Russia, when he came back to the help the Preds in the ’12 playoffs, but also didn’t make it much of a secret that he was just running out the last year of his entry-level deal. That was the spring he and a couple teammates were caught in a Glendale bar at 5am the night before Game 2 against the Coyotes, which didn’t make it seem like he was all that invested. Of course, the hockey media was all to ready to pounce on what appeared to be a carpetbagger, and one from the Motherland. Give them an inch…
Radulov again returned to Russia after that spring, as no one was terribly too interested in signing him after that whole ruckus. Radulov spent another four years with CSKA.
But after those four years Radulov could return to the NHL as a free agent, which again, didn’t look all that good. Still, no one in Montreal was complaining about his 54-point-season last year, nor are the Stars complaining about his point-per-game pace so far this one after he cashed in for a five-year deal at a cool $6 million per.
Certainly Habs fans didn’t think Radulov wasn’t committed, showing great passion on and off the ice. There were some who would claim it was all a show, and there was no way to know after what came before.
Perhaps the way young players are viewed is simply impossible for them, especially those from Europe. Every player is expected to have come over and dreamt of winning the Stanley Cup and put that over all, but is that realistic? Some do, some probably don’t. After all, to a lot of players the World Championships every year are a really big deal, and here they’re barely a ripple on the hockey calendar.
Secondly, even though it was negotiated and collectively bargained, young players are still put to the screws financially in the NHL. Only a select few make a ton of money after their entry-level deals, and thanks to what is in no way “collusion” we’re sure that prevents offer sheets, they have no leverage. Those that can at least threaten to take the serious money on offer across the pond have different leverage than others who don’t even think about it.
It a system that made sense, players would make what they’re worth basically as soon as possible. Given the money attached to the game, it isn’t a wonder or wrong that it becomes a major motivation for a player.
So is, or was, Radulov just a mercenary who took the highest paycheck he could find? Or did he just play the system that was on offer to him and do the best he could? We know what the view was from those who pen the articles. Given Radulov’s renaissance, that might not be the truth. Maybe it’s just a player who didn’t love the game here at a young age, went back to where he was comfortable and more rightly rewarded, and with age and maturity came back to accomplish more over here.
Or he just came back because it was time to make serious money here. We’ll never know.
Game #26 Preview
