Info courtesy of Corsica.hockey and HockeyDB.com
Game #35 Preview
Just when you thought the Hawks had pulled their shit together, they played the Stars again to remind everyone that they’re not that good at stuff sometimes. To the bullets:
– Proving yet again that wins and losses, and a team’s record in general really, can be deceptive in this league, one would have thought that the won-five-in-a-row Hawks would have wrestled a win out of this, especially since the Stars have been on a (brief) losing streak. But alas, this did not go the way you thought. And early on the Hawks didn’t even play that badly. They hit the post twice in the first half of the game, and that was kind of a metaphor for their night: trying to do the right thing, attempting to put yourself in the right place at the right time, but just striking out. This game could easily have been tied at three midway in the second, if the posts had gone another way and if Bishop hadn’t robbed Kane of his 300th goal early in the first period. Coulda woulda shoulda.
– Naturally with a loss by four goals one suspects shitty goaltending, but as so often happens with the Hawks it was actually shitty defense. Well, let me qualify that: it was shitty defense mostly by a couple guys, and I’ll give you three guesses who it was, but you really only need one. Seabrook and Forsling were bumbling around the net, particularly on the fourth goal. Not that the fourth one was the goal that changed the game, but it signaled that the fork had truly been stuck in the Hawks before they even got to the third period. Meanwhile, Michal Kempny did things like break up a dangerous 2-on-1 in the second, and he played much of the game with Connor Murphy, who also had three shots. I liked the two of them together, but if it comes at the cost of having Seabrook and Forsling being paired up, then it’s not really worth it. Hopefully this doesn’t give Q an opening to put Kempny back in the press box.
– Obviously it would have been great if Crawford had stood on his head, but don’t let that dismal .818 save percentage fool you—he had morons in front of him most of the night. It would have been worse if not for some key stops by Crow throughout the game.
– The Hawks led in possession and shots, but the Stars had all the momentum once Jamie Benn scored the first goal (maybe he took Fels’ advice from earlier today? I mean, it’s what we all really want so…maybe good for him?). Tyler Seguin’s first goal came on a power play for Hartman’s tripping penalty, so I guess we should expect Heart Man to get the press box treatment this weekend.
– Speaking of the press box, it’s hard to argue that Patrick Sharp would have changed this game in any meaningful way, but it’s also hard to argue that Panik did. Weiner Anxiety’s possession numbers were above water (59 CF%), but he wasn’t particularly noticeable.
– Before it turned into a blowout, there was a lot of stupid posturing by guys on both sides. I guess it’s not that surprising given that these teams have played each other like 15 times already, but it definitely had the feel of a nature show where the male of the species puts on a gratuitous display of hopping around and showing off plumage to chase away rivals.
It was a frustrating loss, no doubt, since it’s a division opponent and they were tied in points going in. But shit happens—nights like this just happen sometimes and it didn’t look like the bottom fell out, they just took a step back after taking a few forward. With the streaky nature of things lately, we should be equally prepared for them to crap the bed for a while or inexplicably bounce back against a good team. Onward and upward.
First Screen Viewing
Jets vs. Bruins – 6pm
After having passed their test in Nashville earlier in the week, the Jets head east to take on the Bruins. The Bruins have won 17 games. Did you know this? You probably didn’t. I don’t know how or why. Especially why. It’s probably just that division is so terrible and they’ve gotten to clean up on that. Looking over the past month they’ve beaten some really bad teams and gotten skulled by the good ones. But someone has to finish third in the Atlantic, and everyone aside from Tampa Bay and Toronto appears determined to not do so. Maybe the Leafs smell. Anyway, watch Blake Wheeler destroy the team he probably should still be playing for.
Second Screen Viewing
Rangers vs. Devils
Speaking of not knowing why, the Devils are still loitering around the top of the Metro, even though they’ve repeatedly been asked to vamoose. The Rangers are two points behind them in the confused rabble of the rest of the division. Always a good atmosphere, as thousands of Rangers fans descend upon the rock to yell, “New Jersey sucks!” and the Devils fans respond, “Yes, we know.”
Other Games
Ducks vs. Islanders – 6pm
Jackets vs. Penguins – 6pm
Senators vs. Lightning – 6:30
Canes vs. Predators – 7pm
Blues vs. Oilers – 8pm
Avalanche vs. Kings – 9:30
Canucks vs. Sharks – 9:30
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 17-11-5 Stars 18-14-3
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
FROM A DC-9 AT NIGHT: Defending Big D
For the third time in three weeks or so, the Hawks and Stars will get down and boogie as they continue to pass the wildcard playoff spots to each other and the Wild like a Willie Nelson joint. Both sit on 39 points, with the Hawks having one more ROW than the Stars. Both have been streaky, matching winning and losing streaks and preventing them from getting amongst the glitterati at the top of the division. Both are possession-strong or metric-strong, the Stars more so, but have been undone by low shooting percentages (Hawks) or wonky goaltending (Stars). Both are set for a dogfight of a second half of a season.
What I’m getting at is they’re similar.
Things have not gone well of late for the Balls Of Gas Of Texas. They’ve lost three in a row, and six of their last eight. There are two main cruxes of their issues. One, they can’t get any secondary scoring other than Radulov, Benn, and Seguin. Jabba The Hitch has attempted to solve this by breaking them up, with Benn returning to center and Seguin centering Shore and Janmark. It hasn’t really resulted in much yet, but they’ve only gone this way for two games and look to be doing the same again tonight. You can bet if they trail late, their big three will be reunited.
The other problem for the Stars, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, is their goaltending hasn’t been good. Ben Bishop just hasn’t put it together at all, and Kari Lehtonen is a lesson in being true to yourself in that he’s having a season where he’s Kari Lehtonen, i.e. bad. Of course, the one good game Bishop has had of late was here in Chicago, because that’s just the way things go.
There is a lot of potential for the Stars here. If they let Julius Honka be Julius Honka and live with his mistakes, they’ll have two pairs that can really push the play. Klingberg has been excellent on the top pairing, even if his partner Esa Lindell is on a first name basis with the blender. Janmark and Faksa have scored in the past, and the Stars desperately need them to. If one or both fires consistently at some point, the Stars could shoot up the standings (#SeeWhatIDidThere).
For the Hawks, the pressbox axe falls tonight on Patrick Sharp. He can’t really have any complaints. He hasn’t scored, he doesn’t skate as well as he did (Father Time always wins), and you can’t really use him as a strict checking winger. You certainly can’t with Hinostroza and Hartman. So he’ll take a seat for Wiener Anxiety to return to the lineup, who at least is good in the corners and down low and keeps the puck in the right end. On a third line, the pressure for Panik to score isn’t as high, which is good, because in another lesson in being true to yourself, he’s still Richard Panik, whatever last year told you.
You know what the “Hitch Plan” for the Hawks will be. It’s been the same for years, and you saw it in the first two games between these two. For some reason, Hitch doesn’t want to go hammer and tongs at evens with the Hawks, even though the Stars have just as much scoring talent and more speed. So you’ll see something of a slog, and if it turns into a penalty-fest then Hitch will take that. Especially given how much the Hawks’ PP blows. The Stars one isn’t all that good either, but Hitch knows putting the Hawks on the advantage a lot probably isn’t going to hurt.
I’m not sure the Hawks want to turn this into a track meet either, given what Radulov and Seguin can do in space. But given that the actual defense of the Stars isn’t all that good at the whole “defense” thing. Lindell and Klingberg aren’t shutting you down in their zone if you can get them there, and HamHock and Pateryn aren’t either. Johns can’t do it all himself. Maybe this is why Hitch looks to turn things into mud with a team that’s built to do the opposite.
Six is better than five.
Game #34 Preview
We give Dallas GM Jim Nill a lot of shit for a lot of things. The way he completely ignored his goaltending situation the past three years or so. Or when he did try to remedy it he ended up with Antti Niemi. And then ended up with Ben Bishop, which might only be a slight upgrade. The way he stuck by Lindy Ruff when it was clear that his defense-less ways were never going to allow the Stars to go anywhere. Or the way he “wins” every offseason according to the hockey media, and then the Stars are still not around when the calendar gets to May. Or they miss the playoff altogether.
We’ve spent so much time going over all that we’ve missed his Martin Hanzal signing. And this one might really suck. It might be one of the worst of the summer, actually.
Before we get to what Martin Hanzal is, let’s get to what he was. Martin Hanzal has scored over 40 points exactly twice in his 10-year career. And never more than 41. He’s never scored more than 16 goals in a season. Connected to that, he’s only played more than 70 games in a season four times, and three of them were in his first three seasons. He gets hurt, and he doesn’t score much when he’s actually on the ice.
And Jim Nill gave him $4.7 million for the next three years.
Here are some centers making around the same money. Bryan Little makes the same, as far as cap hit. When he signed that deal, he was coming off 32 points in 48 games in 2013. He then backed it up with a 64 point seasons and a 52-point season. Vincent Trocheck makes the same cap hit. He has two 50-point seasons and has been a point-per-game this year. Artem Anisimov’s cap hit is slightly less, and it’s probably not a good contract, but he’s about to gather his third-straight 20-goal season. Nazem Kadri makes $4.5 per year, and he’s got three 50-point season and is going to add a fourth this year. Other names are Marcus Johansson, Valtieri Fillpula, Tyler Johnson, Alex Galchenyuk, Jori Lehtera. Make of that what you will, which is probably there are some really dumb GMs around.
Hanzal has five points this year. He’s also been a possession black hole, which given his just-shit-myself skating style on a team that can get-up-and-go isn’t a huge surprise. His relative-Corsi is -5.37 and his -10.3 relative xGF% is one of the worst in the league.
Nill will get away with it because Kari Lehtonen’s $5.9 million hit and Dan Hamhuis’s $3.7 million hit come off the books this year. Even with Roussel, Johns, Shore, Elie, Janmark, Smith to re-sign. Then again, they’ll only have 11-14 million to do all that with. The following year Tyler Seguin is going to get his, but Jason Spezza’s hit comes off the books. So Nill might dodge the damage that could come along with such an oversized mistake.
To be fair to Hanzal, Jabba The Hitch has used him exclusively as a checking-line center. He starts only 32% of his shifts in the offensive zone, so of course his metrics are going to be low. Still, if you want merely a punching bag who sucks up defensive zone draws, you can probably find one for cheaper than $4.7 million per year.
More genius. You gotta love it.
Game #34 Preview
For the second time in two weeks or so, we go and bother Taylor Baird from DefendingBigD.com. Follow her on Twitter @TaylorBaird.
The Stars are one of the lowest event teams in the league, which is something of a Hitchcock specialty. But given how this roster is built, is that really conducive to success? Is that why the record has been a touch wonky?
I think they’re still trying to figure out the balance between structure and suppressing chances against while being creative offensively. When they won five games straight right after Thanksgiving, they scored an average of 4.4 goals per game (excluding shootouts/empty netters) and they only allowed 2.2 goals per game on average. That’s a terrific recipe for success, and now they’ve shown they can do it. The trick is finding the consistency to put it into place each night while still adjusting to new linemates/system/coaching/etc. Sometimes that takes longer to put together than fans would like, but I think they’re capable.
The Stars traded Jamie Oleksiak, which seems to be a vote of confidence for Julius Honka. Why are Stars fans so excited about him?
He’s mobile and very creative with the puck in flashes in games he played last season, something the Stars have lacked at times from their blueline. Stars fans are excited that Dallas could have two of the offensive defensemen style blueliners in the lineup and believe it will help improve the transition game immensely. And while these kinds of players come with inherent risks, Honka has shown that he has the speed to be able to recover from his mistakes, something that Oleksiak struggled with in Dallas. It’s not that people felt Oleksiak was a pylon, but for many fans his defensive shortcomings when he wasn’t providing much in the way of possession/scoring was tough to swallow.
Martin Hanzal, five points, some of the worst metrics on the team. This has not gone well so far, has it?
The better penalty kill from the terribad one last season might say otherwise. He doesn’t look good statistically, but he has had flashes in games this season when healthy of doing all the little things that help maintain possession or cycle in the offensive zone that has created the environment for goal scoring by the next line on the ice. I’d say it’s more likely an “incomplete” grade at this point in the season, especially given that he’s missed games due to injury.
Marc Methot is returning from injury soon. What kind of difference will that make?
I think it will really solidify a top six, and maybe the Stars can stop the bottom four merry-go-round that they’ve run searching for the right combinations. If they can get a group in consistently for a stretch, I’d expect the team as a whole will look much better in general.
What will the Stars need to pick up to lock down a playoff spot this year?
Most likely a top six forward, as the Stars haven’t found the right answer to have a consistent second line threat without breaking up the dynamite grouping of Jamie Benn – Tyler Seguin – Alexander Radulov. It doesn’t seem to be ready to be answered from inside the system today, so acquiring that will probably be a top target for Jim Nill at the trade deadline (or sooner) this season.
Game #34 Preview
Last time these two met, we went down on what makes Jamie Benn so angry. We got to the bottom of what might be irking him, to see if we could lap up what make Benn tick. Maybe, if we played our cards right–took it down, if you will–we could bring his problems to their knees. Sometimes, you just have to put your face in there, y’know? You can’t just expect things to come to you. Put your love out there, and you’ll get it back. Give if you want to receive, as it were.
But we couldn’t quite bring it through. Benn is second on the Stars in penalty minutes, speaking to his inner frustration, which he just can’t seem to open up. The bile is rising, but he can’t taste it. If Benn could just sink down into it, and see what he can’t get to. Maybe if he just took a look, and tried to solve his problems, things would just open up for him. And then he could be a player no one ever dreamed of.
That’s the thing with sports, in order to achieve all you can you have to realize there are things under the surface that you have to face. That you have to conquer. You have to do things that at first seem distasteful, maybe even gross. You have to push yourself through, no matter what might get stuck in your teeth. Maybe you’ll feel surrounded, maybe it’ll be dark and hot and you won’t know exactly what you’re doing. But then you just close your eyes and guess, and sometimes it works. Maybe this is why Jamie Benn has never seen a conference Final. He’s never gotten “halfway,” if you will.
But until Benn is willing to go where he hasn’t before, he’s never going to taste victory.
Game #34 Preview
All stats at even-strength unless noted. Courtesy of Corsica.hockey.
Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes
CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60
CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against
G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes
xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending.
PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.
Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates
Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone
TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against
Game #34 Preview
Lineups & How Teams Were Built
All stats courtesy of Corsica.hockey and NaturalStatTrick.com. Team info from HockeyDB.com
Game #34 Preview
It’s rare that the NHL gets good news when it comes to arena deals and stability. And sometimes, like Calgary, it’s them basically dropping eggs on their own face repeatedly. But it did today when the New York Islanders announced that they won their bid to build a new arena at Belmont Race Track, over NYCFC. I can only imagine the day the railbirds are going to have after getting beat out of a Pick Four by a 30-1 and then walk barely a quarter mile to yell at Nick Leddy for three hours. Actually, that sounds like my perfect day.
While I haven’t seen the ins and outs of the deal, it appears the Islanders and their partners are going to finance this one themselves, which is a real upset. I’m sure there are tax breaks galore involved here, and the land being owned by the racetrack probably puts in further complications. And of course the Isles have to figure out where they’re going to play after next season when the Nets and their Russian nutjob of an owner punt them out of the Barclays Center like Otto squatting in the Simpsons place. And based on their attendance, the Islanders might only leave some mustard behind. Yes, I just mixed my Simpsons metaphors. Sue me.
Still, this is good news, and there’s something unique about the Isles staying on the Island. First off, Belmont is accessible by train from the city (believe me, I know), so those who are coming from there aren’t out of luck like they were getting out to Nassau. But it’s closer to the team’s base on The Island, so that’s a win for everyone.
It took my compatriot Matt McClure pointing it out to me, but the Isles are maybe one of two remaining neighborhood teams in American sports. A team that isn’t identified with a city per se, but a specific area of a metro area. The other would be the baseball team here that plays on the Southside. No, I’m serious. There’s a baseball team there. I’m not kidding! And they’ve got a real nice park with great food. You should totally go. You can find Fifth Feather there still yelling about Todd Frazier. No one’s told him he’s been traded, and we’d prefer if you didn’t either. It’s funnier this way.
The Northside Nine are basically a national brand at this point, and have been for a while. They belong to Iowa and Nebraska and beyond thanks to WGN. While the Isles attempted to move their “neighborhood” to Brooklyn, Brooklyn is 4th biggest city in America by population. This isn’t the Dodgers anymore. You all think of a certain type of Brooklyn-ite, and he’s probably got a mustache and a wool cap in July and such. But that’s just one facet of it.
I guess the Mets could be considered a neighborhood team, and they have the same colors as the Isles, but no one wants to actually claim the Mets. They’re the Moosylvania of sports.
LA’s never had that, because everyone hates Orange County and it’s not a “neighborhood” so much as a “hellscape.” The Clippers and Lakers have either played in the same arena or two arenas that are really close to each other. The A’s and Giants have that identity, but Oakland is a huge place. I guess within the Bay Area, the A’s have the biggest identity in their little place of it, but Oakland is still a city.
Good for the Isles, and good for their collection of fans, even if Long Island is the reason we still have Billy Joel to bother us and also might be the genesis and biggest example of “white flight.” One of the appeals for soccer fans like me and others is that teams are so much more closely identified with where they’re from. Even if it’s a citywide team, there’s a real connection and feel there that sometimes American sports loses out on. Partially because we know how easily they’re moved around. But the Isles and the weirdness that they’re the only ones that come from this specific place and will return there, that has a place. An anti-New York City feel to it is what helped give the Isles their identity. And they’ll get it back.
No, seriously, there’s a baseball team on the Southside. You don’t have to look it up.
