Bears Offense vs. Giants Defense
Giants Offense vs. Bears Defense
Tony Martin: Today’s matchup post is going to look a little different than usual- since this year has been anything but normal, we are having to seriously discuss how to spend our Sunday afternoons. I just started a new job, I’m still in grad school, and I still play in multiple bands- that time of the weekend would be perfect to spend it on anything other than shitty football that I’m emotionally invested in.
Yet I know for a fact that I’ll be parked on the couch this Sunday, watching the lifeless Bears play against the Giants. I’m not sure if I’m watching to see if they have something to prove or if I do it out of sheer tradition. I feel like if there was a Dawn of the Dead style zombie apocalypse, instead of lurking to the mall you’d find my dead ass sitting on the couch with a half cashed bowl and a LaCroix within arms reach of my rotting arms, waiting for the Bears to come on.
What do the Bears have to prove over these last few games? Is this just a talent evaluation process by now? It could be. I’m thinking they need to assess what options they have at so many different positions- both sides of the line, tight end, linebacker, kicker, and the defensive backfield. At this point, let’s see what this team has going forward. A lot of what Pace and Nagy should be focusing on where the holes in this leaky sink are coming from, because even though Mitch is the most glaring problem, the reason we are where we are is deeper than bad QB play. If Kyle Orton can win games as a starting QB, so can Mitch, but the franchise needs to build and play to his strengths. A great game plan can help mitigate a lot of deficiencies if done right.
This team absolutely has a playoff core, but Pace/Nagy need to spend the offseason figuring out what the identity of the franchise actually is and then building towards it. The end of last season covered up a lot of the problems with this roster from an identity standpoint on offense. They had a bruising running back and then a scatback, an all-star caliber wide receiver and a bunch of undersized speedsters, and a tight end that was not worth the money. All they did was replace the running back with a much better prospect that fits the offense, but they get away from running as soon as they fall behind, even if it’s by something as small as a first half field goal. Now might be the time to find those things to build upon, but it’s going to be boring as shit from a fan perspective to see it.
To wrap this part up, I’ll tell you what I’m looking for as the Bears play us off (insert Bill O’Reilly impression here):
-Is there an NFL-caliber tight end on the roster?
-Is Anthony Miller consistent enough to warrant a spot as the starting slot WR?
-Which defensive linemen could create pressure on their own in the absence of Khalil Mack?
-Does Leonard Floyd still play for this team?
-Eddie Goldman somehow has a grade of 74.3 so far from PFF- how much of 2018’s 88 rating from PFF was aided by the presence of Akiem Hicks?
-Do the Bears look to extend any of the following players: Danny Trevathan, Haha Clinton-Dix, Aaron Lynch, Nick Williams, Nick Kwiatkoski, or Roy Robertson-Harris?
-Are the Bears interested in taking a harder look at Javon Wims or Ryan Nall?
Wes French:Tony, I have to admit – If there is a Dawn of the Dead style scenario, I’d like to come find that couch and help you finish off your party favors. Barring a Hollywood situation on Sunday, though, I think I’m checking out on the Bears for a week.
It’s the Sunday before what’s basically a holiday week – yeah, I’ve got to work a few days at the beginning, but am I REALLY working? Fuck no. And the fact the Bears don’t really seem to be working the last month+ makes me unsure about investing another 3-4 hour block of my weekend, especially against a putrid trash heap like the New York Giants. I guess this might be the BEST time to check in, since the Bears should be able to get a W against the rookie-QB led G-Men, but the last time we had that narrative was all of two weeks ago against Detroit and that game was about as entertaining as a wet fart. Plus we’ll get that same wet fart four days later, bright and early before we’re all stuffed.
Am I interested in another slog between trash teams trying to sort out how exactly to best use the players they employ? No, no I’m not. Tony outlined plenty to look for in terms of WHY you may want to check in to this game on Sunday, and beyond the Bears sorting themselves out for a hopefully more spirited run in 2020 I could see you being mildly interested in who this Daniel Jones character is playing QB for NYG and wanting to see the sometimes electric Barkley do what he does. Outside of those two, the Giants have nothing to hold the interest of anyone but the diehards in the Big Apple and even those dummies are probably on to other things by week 12 of a 2-8 season. The Giants are pretty terrible and deserve no one’s attention, and in the immortal words of Local H – And Fuck New York, Too.
So what else should you be doing on Sunday? I’m going to play hockey and casually catch a nice dose of Red Zone with NINE noon games. Why the NFL can’t sort themselves out enough to have a better division of games through the day (there are only TWO late afternoon contests, but one is DAL @ NE) remains a mystery, but I digress. There are some strong teams on bye this week (KC/MIN), but while the schedule at first glance looks like a mirror of Bears/Giants, I’d say we’re in for a noon slate of some wild football with goofy fun matchups galore:
– SEA @ PHI: The best game on paper at noon, Seattle looks to keep the Eagles down as they chase the 49ers for the NFC West/#1 seed. The Eagles are maddening, but always capable of a breakout performance and still have a shot at their own shitty Division
– TB @ ATL: Human Turnover Machine/Piece of Shit Jameis Winston goes into Hotlanta, quietly one of the best defensive units in the league since Week 5; I’ll guarantee at least 3 INTs and a DEF TD
– DEN @ BUF/ OAK @ NYJ: On the surface, the Bills and Raiders should cruise, but the Broncos have proved a difficult out and the Jets are scoring in bunches of late. The Bills and Raiders also remain the Bills and Raiders, so place those bets cautiously
– PIT @ CIN: A once fierce rivalry reduced to Mason Rudolph against Ryan Finley. I’ll be honest, this one excites even less than the Bears, but it does produce a decent opportunity for the Bungals to get their first win…it could totally be worse, Bears fans
– CAR @ NO: This sees two teams heading in wildly opposite directions, with the Panthers looking like they might be onto their third QB of the season and just about dead in the NFC at 5-5. Saints are aiming for NFC’s top spot. Divisional games can be weird, though
– MIA @ CLE/DET @ WSH: These two matchups pit four of the leagues worst franchises (of late, at least) against each other, and while on the surface the matchups look shit you should NEVER discount a game between the worst of the worst. How will Cleveland respond after the brawl to end last week’s game? Can Miami make it 3 wins in 4 after starting 0-7? Will the Lions continue to be the tonic that aids young/under-performing QBs for Dwayne Haskins and the Racial Slurs???
TUNE IN TO FIND OUT
Ladies and gentlemen, please let me introduce New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. Daniel went to The Charlotte Latin School, in Charlotte, NC; which I know first-hand is full of guys named Daniel and Chad and Harper. From Charlotte Latin, Jones went to Dook University. Dook is a place where guys named Daniel and Chad and Harper go to college and meet girls from New Jersey named Piper and Huntington. In an effort to make Daniel Jones more unlikeable, I’d like to let you know that he has a sister named Becca and a brother named Bates.
So, despite an upbringing that would and probably did lend itself to uber-entitlement, Daniel Jones has excelled athletically at every stop in his football career: 3X NCAA Bowl Game MVP, 6th overall pick in NFL Draft, rookie starter in NFL.
With the Giants, Manning took over for potential Hall of Famer Eli Manning during Week 3 and as he has gotten more comfortable, he has continued to put up big numbers for a team that isn’t exactly oozing offensive talent.
Jones’ unspectacular overall numbers don’t paint an accurate picture of the type of year he has had thus far:
Now before you run to the window to bet the Bears at -6, take a look at what Jones has done over his last 3 games:
Are these blown up because of the inferior competition Jones has faced over the last four games? Maybe. Is Jones getting more comfortable in the Giants system and in the NFL in general? Absolutely. Over his last four games, Jones has thrown for 10 TDs and 2 INTs, which means in the five games before that, he threw for five TDs and six INTs. This is what you call, say it with me, T-R-E-N-D-I-N-G!
When you look at the receivers Daniel Jones is throwing to this season, you immediately appreciate the numbers he’s putting up. Tight end Evan Engram is leading the team in receptions, targets, and yards. That’s right; a tight end you’ve probably never heard of is leading an NFL team in most receiving categories. Unfortunately for Jones and the Giants, Engram has yet to practice this week due to a foot injury. Keep an eye on this.
Retread malcontent and noted doughnut thief Golden Tate is fine, just like he’s always been. Tate is averaging 70 receiving yards and about 5.5 catches per game, so he’s not completely useless.
Rookie Darius Slayton has had a very promising first season and is capable of big plays and big games; evident by his 10-catch, 121-yard, 2-TD performance his last time out. Slayton has all but replaced Tate as Jones’ first option on the outside.
WR Sterling Shepard has been a disappointment this season. Shepard started the season as a #1, and was an Eli Manning favorite, but as Slayton continues to get more targets, Shepard has become more of a possession receiver.
Look for otherworldly Saquon Barkley to see more targets out of the backfield this week, similar to his late October performance when he had eight catches for 80 yards. Barkley has at least five targets in every game this season with a high of 10. I believe his number will be closer to 10 than five this week against the Bears because it provides a safety valve for Daniel Jones in regards to both his physical well-being and mental health.
So dickhead, what does all of this nonsense mean come Sunday afternoon?
For the Bears, if Mitch Trubisky is healthy enough to play, then we will get a good chance to compare quarterbacks that are very similar. Mitch has the advantage of experience, and Jones has the disadvantage of going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL, but both guys are top 10 draft picks, who are playing for bad teams in big markets, whose fans think they reached for each player in the draft. I’d be surprised if either guy passes for more than 200 yards and either team scores more than 17 points.
Bears 17 – Giants 13
Welcome back to THE VAULT: my weekly musings about Bears history, making me the Carrie Bradshaw of the Bears or at least of this website. If you track the metaphor a little bit deeper, you’ll find that Josh Bellamy is my Mr. Big, whereas Dez White had my love slip through his fingers like so many 3rd down passes.
Today’s blog is, like a Sex and the City article, based on a series of vaguely existential questions; questions that make you really stop and think. Questions like:
“Why don’t Bears fans give Dez Clark the amount of respect and reverence for his time in Chicago as they do Greg Olsen?”
“With an understanding of the roster at the time, is Cedric Benson one of the worst Bears draft picks ever?”
“Was Muhsin Muhammad right when he said Chicago is where receivers go to die? Is Mark Bradley dead?”
“What do you think Tommie Harris is doing RIGHT NOW, and is it more or less interesting than whatever Mark Anderson is doing?”
Finally, and most importantly: “Why is it that whenever any national sports broadcast shows the Devin Hester missed field goal return they never use the WBBM call?” Jeff Joniak CLEARLY has the superior play by play call of that score and Tom Thayer’s exuberant ‘NO WAY!’ is so so so good.
These questions are all above my pay grade as a single woman trying to find love in New York City. Speaking of the Big Apple, the 6-2 Giants hosted the 7-1 and eventual Super Bowl-bound Bears on Sunday Night Football.
This of course was back before we were blessed as a nation with Carrie Underwood welcoming us to the “Nasty Showdown” of the week. Instead,m we were listening to Pink singing roughly the same song with a few major exceptions. Pink’s version has the lines: “All right, Sunday night, where are you? Just kickin back from the things that you do”, whereas Carrie Underwood’s version until 2015 starts: “All right Sunday night, where are you? Waiting for the game that bleeds red, white, and blue.”
Look, I know. I know how this is gonna sound, because both my short and long term memory has been ravaged by decades of recreational drug abuse, but hear me out because I fell in a pretty deep rabbit hole here: the Faith Hill 2010 Sunday Night Football theme song is the first one since the song debuted in 2006 with the patriotic lyrics in the first verse, and it ran until Carrie Underwood’s revamped version hit the air in the 2016 season without those lyrics.
As some of you may recall, the NFL and the Department of Defense were essentially selling the military to fans between the years of 2011-2015, where several teams received a combined amount of more than $5 million in taxpayer money to run promotions for the armed forces (1). It also needs to be noted that the NFL didn’t have players on the field during the anthem as standard practice since 2009 (2).
How much money was Carrie Underwood getting paid under the table to change the lyrics to the Sunday Night Football theme to make it coincide with a massive pro-military, nationalistic push deep into the very concept of the National Football League? How deep does this all go? Did Carrie Bradshaw ever feel like this, like an Alex Jones level journalist, exposing the hidden agenda of the deep (NFL) state? How deep does this rabbit hole go? All I’m saying is if you type “Roger Goodell” into an anagram generator, one of the results is “Old Leg Gore Or” and while I’m not trying to convince you that this is all a ploy to fuck my fantasy football team, I’m not denying the presence of old legs Frank Gore has SEVERELY impeded on Devin Singletary in multiple weeks for me this season.
Okay yes I am trying to convince you that the Department of Defense, Carrie Underwood, Faith Hill, Roger Goodell, and the NFL have all formed a secret cabal to screw me out of fantasy football money.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, the Bears won this game. Rex Grossman looked competent, Thomas Jones was excellent as always, and every time the Bears scored they mocked the stupid Giants jump-shot celebration. Look, if you’re gonna pretend to hit a fadeaway jumper, you better be playing for the same city as the guy who made that move iconic. The Giants should’ve stuck to an iconic New York basketball move of their own, like maybe they could pull an Ewing and celebrate by pretending to miss a wide open finger roll at the buzzer in game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
REAL JOURNALISM HOURS:
1- https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/defense-department-paid-5-4-million-nfl-honor-troops
Ok, we’ve got all winter and spring to worry about the future, but with everyone talking about firing everyone…would you give Matt Nagy another year with a revamped offensive line?
Brian Schmitz: Would I give another year to figure himself out? No. I think he’s overmatched and as I’ve been saying – he’s been found out and hasn’t been able to counterpunch.
Will the Bears give him another year? 100%. He is Pace’s hire and the firing him would be an admittance of guilt. Similar to Shaheen still being a uniformed NFL player and Mitch starting games.
Wes French: I’m not sure I’m giving anyone another year right now, but before we even get to Nagy/Oline…where the hell is Ryan Pace? Nagy has been front and center through this whole thing, which might be more detriment at this point, but his GM hiding out this whole time is really starting to give me even worse feelings about all this.
Nagy is looking a lot like his QB right now, continuing to do the same things over and over and not learning anything. 3rd and short was a disaster, again. They become the 2nd team to score only seven points while running at least 74 plays, and they have now gone 9 of 10 games under 300 yards of total offense. Nothing changes, but he expects different results.
Pagano has been here for 10 games and you can see tangible changes IN REAL TIME. Is his defense perfect? No. They still gave up another 4th quarter TD, but they also allowed just 37 rushing yards in the 2nd half after getting gashed for 73 in the first half.
Can any of you think of a time where Nagy made an adjustment that sustained any kind of success, week to week let alone in game?
Tony Martin: Y’all, this is the definition of “forgotten season” in the best case scenario for Pace, Nagy, and Mitch. Is it reactionary to just let Matt Nagy go at the end of the year? Something has gotta change, this window is open for what, two more years tops?
I was listening to something on the radio the other day about Lamar Jackson- the Ravens offense is specifically designed to maximize his talents and minimize his shortcomings, and in turn he has had time to develop aspects of his game while immediately being put in the best position to win as he is. They draft and sign players to compliment his skillset, and they scheme to his benefit specifically.
Can Matt Nagy gameplan like this? So far nothing I’ve seen would lead me to believe so, but I’d like to see if the plan is to either find a QB to fit in the system, or spend the offseason building their roster to Mitch’s strengths.
It seems like every young player, on both sides of the ball, have just flattened out this year (with the possible exception of Allen Robinson, and that might just be health). Is that on Nagy or is that just who these guys are, which would put it on Pace?
Tony: Could it be a combination of both? All these Bears players have limitations that were mitigated by gameplanning- putting them in a position to win. This year, it’s no surprise Tarik Cohen looks like shit when he’s running up the middle from the shotgun because the box is loaded.
Wes: I don’t think the players are the problem. Virtually the same group were the darlings of last season, and this year I think it’s a lack of confidence in the coach and the QB as the season has worn on. The defense might be a little of Pagano learning (slowly) how to best get the right players in the right roles in terms of pressure/coverage in the front 7.
On offense I put it squarely on Nagy being insane on account of trying the same shit week in and week out and expecting different results. Tony makes a great point about Baltimore/Jackson and designing a system that the QB can grow within while setting him up for the best possible results in the short term. The rub, though, might be that Trubisky is just THAT BAD and we’ve seen that he can’t even hit the easiest of plays or make the simplest of reads. I think it might be too far gone to be salvageable, considering this season is shot with the injuries to Trubs.
Expecting to be able to strip it down even further and hope for better next year would be foolish without at least bringing in some kind of veteran competition. Sure, you can point to the Oline a bit and that needs sorting, but the Oline isn’t constantly throwing to back shoulders regardless of that being the best spot.
Brian: It’s probably somewhere in the middle of each. Nagy isn’t putting a lot of guys in position to succeed, but at the same time, he has been given some bums that he’s trying to make real NFL players.
Cohen, for instance, is a guy who we know can play. However, he needs to put in creative positions in order to succeed; and we have seen far less of this this season.
Anthony Miller, on the other hand, may just be a guy who is all hype and is becoming a malcontent. This blame can be placed on Pace for falling in love with a guy and then talking about how much they love him.
I popped into the local last night to watch the rest of the Chiefs and Chargers. Neither is having a particularly standout season, and the Chiefs didn’t play all that well last night. But as the game wore on and they started to find their rhythm, and the ads and promos for what was to come in the next week or playoff chases to be sorted out, I had that thought that goes through every fan of a bad team’s head, “My team doesn’t even play the same sport as this.”
That’s probably the worst part, for me, about this disaster of a Bears season (which is strange, because we definitely have seen Bears teams much worse than this, and more than a smattering of them. Just given the expectations…). No sport like football makes you feel you support a second tier or irrelevant team. The other sports have so many games that pretty much every game gets shuffled into the background at some point. There are no important February games in the NHL and NBA. But in the NFL, there’s at least one every week.
There’s a clear split between “The Show” and “The Scenery.” When you’re in the first group, your games have the bigger fonts on the promos for next week’s slate. They’re at 3:25 or flexed. You get the video or graphic during the week. People randomly talk about your game who don’t even live here. There are ads for your team during regular TV programming. You’re the first one mentioned as Red Zone is warming up. Pretty much everything around is getting you ready to watch your team. By the tine it actually kicks off you’re about ready to put your head through a goddamn wall. You’re the show. Your team is important and matters. The week has led to this.
But when you’re this, and the Bears have been this far too often considering they’re the CHICAGO GODDAMN BEARS, you’re filler. You’re the game RedZone cuts to because it has to, generally with a joke or a jibe from the host. “The Bears are actually in the red zone!” You’re the smaller font. You get the shitty broadcast team who have to pretend to be happy to be there (not that I need more Tony Romo in my life). When your national TV appearances approach, everyone inside and out acts with a sense of dread or contrition for subjecting the masses to your team. You’re not even an appetizer., You’re basically the other people in the restaurant to give it ambience, to seem full. It’s the sporting fan version of, “I got a rock.”
And it spreads to watching those games in “The Show.” It doesn’t look the same. Why can’t our guys get that open? Why don’t they make that play? They’re running something consistently. The distance between the bad team you support and the good ones you merely watch in the NFL seems infinite at times, more so than anywhere else I think. It’s hard to even conceive how your team will ever get there. You watch the Chiefs or Packers slice through a defense on a drive where every play gains no less than eight yards, and then you turn to the Bears and see Mitch back up and desperately heave something out to the flat that gains -1 yards and you’re sure there is no path between the two.
Sure, the NBA had the Warriors there for a bit or players like Michael Jordan and LeBron that you can’t conceive of ever having on your team (strange that Bulls fans will feel that way now). But it’s not the same.
It’s more painful now, because the Bears were in “The Show” last season. For the first time in years, maybe since 2010, we got to feel that everything else was building to our game, our team. We were what the networks and coverage pivoted around. We had the big font. We were supposed to again.
And when you’re a bad football team, the only conversation around you is who will get fired and who will be moved on. Everything in the past is just relegated to steps to a mistake. It’s almost as if last year didn’t happen to the football world. An anomaly. A blip. A ghost in the machine. And we’re starting over.
We have the small font. We’re just filler. And it feels like it was ever thus.
Our Coach/QB Axis Of Confusion – This probably should be one. And it’s basically all we’ve talked about for the whole season, but where else do you start?
I don’t know that Sean McVay is any more of a genius or idiot than Matt Nagy. Something tells me they’re of the same cloth, and the Rams season is likely to spin out of control after this anyway. And I’m fairly sure Jared Goff sucks too. But I guess that means they’re both working with the same thing.
Which made last night’s developments all the more infuriating. Because it looked like McVay had an actual plan, even if it was conservative as all fuck. They were going to run the ball, run it some more, and keep running it, if only to keep it out of Goff’s hands as much as possible. And McVay probably knew that the Bears would shift to that 6+1 front to stymie the run, which they did. And yet he remained patient.
He could do that because Nagy’s offense never got away from the Rams or forced him to have to chase the game, but McVay also knew that when the game was on the line, he could take all that had come before and react off of that to get the one touchdown he would need to win the game. So with the Bears in that same front, the Rams finally went to play-action and suddenly Goff has some pretty simple open and easy throws to make. And it didn’t even matter that his best was called back to an illegal formation. How open was that? And then they went down the field anyway.
When has Matt Nagy ever had a consistent plan like that? When has he ever just said, “We’re gonna do this until they make an adjustment, and then we’ll counter that?” Or has it all been “We’re gonna do everything on every drive?” You know the answer. So do I.
We see the Bears do something that tends to work–I-formation, no-huddle, rolling Mitch out–but it never lasts more than a drive or two. The Bears don’t wait around for the move to stop it. They just assume it’s coming and try to change before it does. But they always end up changing back to something that doesn’t work (hi there, option play on 3rd-and-1 with a possibly injured QB!).
It’s a metaphor I go back to far too much, but watching Matt Nagy I’m reminded of how Chuck Klosterman described how Axl Rose writes songs:
But Rose is the complete opposite. He takes the path of most resistance. Sometimes it seems like Axl believes every single Guns N’ Roses song needs to employ every single thing that Guns N’ Roses has the capacity to do—there needs to be a soft part, a hard part, a falsetto stretch, some piano plinking, some R&B; bullshit, a little Judas Priest, subhuman sound effects, a few Robert Plant yowls, dolphin squeaks, wind, overt sentimentality, and a caustic modernization of the blues.
Matt Nagy’s offense has to do everything, even when it clearly has neither the QB or the offensive line to do so. The Bears need simple. One thing, then a counter. They need basically Tim Duncan’s early career post-game. McVay was content to do that last night. Nagy never has been. And this is what you get.
The other thing is McVay revamped his offensive line that had been leaky all year. I don’t know if that’s available to the Bears given the talent level, and they sort of tried that with flipping Daniels and Whitehair back between guard and center. But it’s definitely not a plus in Nagy’s category either.
It’s Ok Mitch, A Lot Of Careers Come To An End In LA – I have to imagine 75% of being a quarterback sucks, unless you’re one of like the five good ones in the world. You’re the only player, in any sport that I can think of actually, that has to have your own press conference after every game and during the week. You know your whole team is looking at you from the moment you show up. No matter how good your focus is, you have to be somewhat aware that an entire fanbase/city is basically judging your entire self-worth on how you play, even if things within your own team are working against you.
I don’t think Mitch got a lot of help last night. The receivers had a few killer drops. His o-line still sucks, though they held up mostly ok last night even with that Mad Titan Aaron Donald around. His coach won’t accentuate the things we think he does well. He may be hurt. The overarching issues aren’t his fault either. He didn’t trade up to draft himself. He didn’t choose to be taken ahead of Mahomes or Watson, something he can do nothing about and that he’ll never live down. His skills are his skills. His coach’s and GM’s inability to read those correctly aren’t really his fault either.
But what I can’t get past, and really haven’t been able to all season, is the big plays he misses. That’s what keeps everyone from living with the mistakes. The miss to Anthony Miller is a touchdown. Miller would still be running. That would have put the Bears up 7-0 and really erased the worries over the kicker. He missed Braunecker on another that would have gone for 30-40 yards. There were two others where Robinson and Cohen had their men beat but he was going for back shoulder throws that were a good 5-10 yards behind them. The INT was just an awful throw.
You make those throws, or even most of them, and the Bears win. You can’t miss the big plays when they’re there, because they don’t come around that often, especially with this line. Fuck, two of them and the Bears probably win.
Maybe it’s confidence. Maybe a Mitch feeling himself hits those. Maybe. I don’t know that we’ve ever consistently seen it. And you can go back and find more. Gabriel in the Chargers game stands out. And maybe it’s harsh to say just three more throws and the Bears are 6-4 right now with at least a chance of something.
And maybe that’s how thin the line is that takes you from being a good QB to a bad one. But in a league built this much on parity, maybe all the lines are that thin. But at this point, it’s clear which side Mitch is on.
I Blame The Defense Because I’m Lashing Out – It’s hard to get past the Bears defense giving up a game-winning drive in pretty much every loss this year late. The only one that wasn’t was the Packers. They got bailed out in Denver.
But y’know, 17 points surrendered is enough to win. It should be. The defense is still good, and if those drives that lost the game came in the second or third quarter, we probably wouldn’t notice as much. And if you had an offense, those drives in the 4th would be in vain anyway.
Pagano even changed his plans last night. He went to that special front to thwart the running game that had been killing them earlier. Was he slow on the uptake on the final drive with the play-action? Maybe, and he had to know that was coming. But there’s only so much you can do.
Still, he hasn’t found a way to get Khalil Mack loose. Chris Collinsworth mentioned night how Wade Phillips was bringing extra heat if only to get Aaron Donald one-on-one. When has Pagano done that? Khalil Mack can’t go through a whole game without being noticed. And eventually, the excuses of being doubled or chipped, or having the running game go away from him, or being schemed outside more and more are tired. Make a play, or more to the point find a way so that he can put himself in position to do so. Just one sack last night would have made a huge difference somewhere in there.
But again, we do this because we’re simply tired of bitching about the offense and coach. They got the turnovers last night. They got the three-and-outs. An average NFL offense wins that game going away. It’s been that way all season.
Everything you need for tonight’s tilt in the Coliseum, where they come to see ’em.
Rams (5-4) vs. BEARS (4-5)
Kickoff: 7:20pm
TV: NBC
Radio: 780 WBBM
You ever see the movie “Big Fan”? It’s a wonderful film, and at the end (no spoilers), the main character played by Patton Oswalt is looking at the newly released schedule for the NY Giants (his favorite team), and says aloud “it’s gonna be a great year.” I remember looking at the Bears schedule before the season and marking this game down as the game where the collective fanbase could know what type of team we were looking at by how they played against the cream of the NFC’s crop. This, my friends, is why I don’t write about football for a living.
Both the Rams and the Bears hobble into this game starkly different than they were when they battled at Soldier Field nearly a year ago, despite not many major personnel changes save for the addition of Jalen Ramsey. The places these teams find themselves is a testament to the parity of the modern NFL, when two teams that were primed to be perennial playoff contenders last year now look at the playoffs from the outside if the season ended today.
That said, these two teams have stumbled to a position where they can ride a mid-season surge to relevancy and possible Wild Card spots, but both need a win to do that. A win here for the Bears could be a signature one, and with their next two games at home against the Giants and at Detroit, the best case scenario for Nagy and the boys would be a 3 game win streak before the season ending gauntlet of Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City, and Minnesota. A 7-5 Bears going into that last 4 game stretch could be confident knowing that going .500 and catching a break or two along the way could get them into the playoffs, where anything can happen. This paragraph is the last of my optimism for 2019 about this team save for a convincing win on Sunday in front of America and Carrie Underwood.
The Rams need this one badly too, since while their remaining schedule has Arizona twice, they also go against Dallas, Baltimore, Seattle, and the 49ers. Both teams are looking for a big win to prove the same thing: the best moments of last season were not just flashes of what could be, but honest reflections of who these teams are when they get hot. Both teams also look at a potential loss as the moment when hopes for this season are dashed hopelessly against the rocks like Lady fuckin MacBeth did it herself. Admittedly, the Rams can lose this game but the Bears absolutely cannot.
I wholeheartedly believe an embarrassing showing by the Bears puts Matt Nagy on the hot seat, less than a year removed from winning Coach of the Year, a mind-blowing take that really encapsulates exactly how far this franchise has fallen. Both the Bears and Rams have been trainwrecks, but not even especially fun to watch trainwrecks.
Todd Gurley has been underutilized this season, and the Rams as a whole aren’t taking the league by storm in terms of how effectively they run the ball, which I believe was a big reason why play action was so essential to their success last year. Gurley has 104 carries on the year, while David Montgomery has 129. Monty also has more rushing yards than Gurley, which blows my mind considering I believed that he had been underutilized for most of the beginning of the season.
Unfortunately for Sunday, this is the time of the year when offenses buckle down and start to rely on the run game to prepare for the postseason and I believe that is a major strength for Los Angeles. Danny Trevathan is out, Akiem Hicks is out, and the Bears are weak up the middle. Nick Kwiatkoski has filled in well, but this game is a big test. Zone blocking techniques have found success against this defense (Oakland, anyone?) and I fear this might be a breakout game for Todd Gurley. It’ll be interesting to see if an offensive line missing a starting Tackle (Rob Havenstein) and it’s Center (Brian Allen) can find consistency against the Bears.
One key element of the Rams offense that is playing this week and didn’t last year is Cooper Kupp, Goff’s favorite target. He was shut out last week, but still ranks 7th in the NFL in catches and yards per game. Expect the Bears to pay extra attention to Cupp while also trying to contain Robert Woods, who is coming off a 7 catch, 95 yard performance in last weeks drubbing by the Steelers. Woods hasn’t scored yet this year, but he should still be considered a threat.
Do the Bears have what it takes to build another win streak and set themselves up for a December run? There is certainly going to be an opportunity to do that on Sunday night. The Rams are not playing at their best, but at the same time do we really even know what the best version of these Bears looks like?
Prediction: Bears 16 Rams 14
Statistics from Pro Football Reference @ pro-football-reference.com
Tony Martin: Well Wes, I guess saying we would be at this point in the 2019 NFL season would’ve been pessimistic had we predicted it in August. The system is all busted up and now the 5-4 Rams welcome our shitty Bears to their house for an opportunity to show ass to a national audience once again.
In preparation for this nightmare, we’re both going to look at top tier QB regression nominees Jared Goff and Mitch Trubisky, and how they’ll fare against the opposing defenses.
Jared Goff, who my initial mischaracterization as Ryan Phillipe even though I meant Ryan Gosling caused the excellent photoshop that accompanies this article, is without a doubt hitting his Senior Slump. In spite of his excellent 2018 season, Goff is back to playing incredibly unevenly once again. He’s coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl season and looks simultaneously like a world-beater and an average bumslayer. He’s destroyed bottom-tier defenses like Atlanta and Cincinnati, but struggled against Tampa Bay (?) and San Francisco.
Combing through Goff’s game logs, there is ABSOLUTELY a correlation between how often Goff is sacked and how often he makes mistakes and turns the ball over. He has had nine passes intercepted and fumbled nine times in their nine games this season, but they come in bunches, and it’s all rooted in how much pressure the opposing defense puts on his pretty blonde shoulders.
How much of the Bears domination of Goff last year was scheme and game-planning, and how much of it was just a talent disparity between the Bears D and the shorthanded Rams (Cooper Kupp was out by week 14 last year). Watching highlights, it’s not that Goff was completely ineffective – he just had no time to pass on most of his snaps. Mack, Hicks, and Goldman were in the backfield on almost every snap. Incidentally, when the Bears couldn’t get pressure, Goff was successful in moving the ball down the field.
The 2019 Bears defense has struggled to get consistent pressure against quarterbacks, and closing running lanes despite a fairly good job shutting down cutbacks. Maybe they don’t allow lots of cutback runs because the initial hole is always big enough to get decent yards out of, but I don’t have the All-22 to confirm that. Do the Bears bring more heat this week against a QB who is not known for his mobility? I’m into it.
I would have to say the Rams biggest highlight from this season has to be their stunning reverse flea flicker against the Bengals earlier this season. A team with a pass rush doesn’t give Goff that kind of time, and he struggles as a result. If this team can do two things, Goff struggles and the Bears look like a real NFL team again:
1. Contain Todd Gurley
2. Apply consistent pressure to Jared Goff, even if it means committing extra defenders
Wes French :I’m taking partial credit for the photoshop in that I was the one that kept the Phillipe bit going and correlated it to Goff as a real world metaphor…but let’s move on.
Mitchell Trubisky isn’t even worthy of a Phillipe comp as his one uneven year led to the brutal 2019 through 10 weeks that we’ve seen, putting him on more of a “got a try out for Mickey Mouse Club, was an extra for three episodes, wound up doing B-movies and dabbling in Cinemax after dark features to pay rent” realm of actor.
Mitch was supposed to take a leap along with the Bears offense, the one that ranked 20th in yards/play last year and currently sits at 30th in 2019. All the leaps for the 2019 Bears have been backwards, sometimes literally as Mitch hops, skips and jumps to double digit yard losses on a lot of the sacks he takes (of which there are far too many).
Mitch only has three INTs on the year, but he did miss a few games and he’s still barely over 2:1 TD:INT ratio with eight touchdowns on the year. And three of those came last week against a beaten and brutal Lions pass defense that Mitch still only managed 173 passing yards. His 5.8 yards per attempt round out his 30th and over club for individual QB stats, a club that Mitch finds himself in too often this year.
There’s been a lot of optimistic talk about the 3rd-year QB and his offense building on that Lions effort, but a trip to the suddenly not so defensively stout Rams may not be the tonic Mitch needs. The plan should mirror last season when Mitch wasn’t very effective, but the running game was.
The Bears used a lot of slide help protection on the O-Line to mitigate the great equalizer that is Aaron Donald, and I’d look for them to double/triple team him on nearly every play he’s on the field. The rushing attack would also do well to scheme away from Donald, where using Tarik Cohen and his speed to run AWAY from Aaron Donald while simply allowing blockers to seal him off and keep him in pursuit is the winning formula.
Mitch will need to be something he hasn’t in 2019 – accurate and on point with decision making. The Rams can and will make his life hell with their rush, but if he can commit to a play and make the throw that’s there without hesitation the Bears will have a shot to move the ball and potentially steal one on the road. Moving the pocket a little more like last week against Detroit and getting Mitch on some bootlegs and misdirection PA plays, if they can get that ground game going early, could lead to the big plays the team and fans have been waiting for all year. We got a few glimpses last week, how about a whole decent offensive game?
1. Contain Donald
2. Run wild, protect the ball and stay the course with what worked in week 10
