Bears Offense vs. Rams Defense
Rams Offense vs. Bears Defense
The 2019 LA Rams started the season with Super Bowl aspirations; but thru nine games, they are treading water. The walls are closing in quickly and the doubters have been out in full force. Rams QB Jared Goff is currently ground zero for criticism and his offensive line is among the worst units in the league. This all sounds too maddening familiar, doesn’t it?
Goff is averaging 292 passing yards per game, good for 6th best in the league; this is clearly not the issue. What is killing the Rams is Goff’s 11-9 TD to INT ratio, which is near the bottom of the league and comparable to the great Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The TD/INT numbers are especially shocking given his 2017 and 2018 Pro Bowl seasons where threw for 60 TDs and 19 INTs combined.
Coming off the two previous seasons where he was a combined 24-7 as a starter, this year’s 5-4 mark screams Super Bowl hangover. It has also raised the big question we are asking here in Chicago: “Has this offense been figured out?” This question was asked even louder with last weeks loss to the Steelers, where the Rams scored 12 points. Coming off a bye week.
Right now, the Rams are elated they are playing in a market that really doesn’t give a fuck about sports. If they were here, or Philly, or New York, or Boston – this teams struggles would be front and center every day; which in turn, would magnify the way Jared Goff has given balls away like he’s Bruce Jenner.
So, after reading all of this, do the Bears have a chance this Sunday? Maybe. This isn’t the 2018 Bears defense, far from it, but last year, Goff had the worst game of his career against Vic’s Fangio’s guys – throwing four INTs and completing only 20-44 for 180 yards.
If he wants to redeem himself from last years abortion, Goff is going to rely heavily on WR Cooper Kupp, who not surprisingly, is a white guy. But Kupp is coming off a game last week where he and I had the same numbers of catches. What makes last week’s performance even more bizarre is that Kupp went for 220 receiving yards the game before. Look for Goff to make Kupp a priority early and often on Sunday and expect big things from the tandem.
Additionally, look for a big game from Robert Woods, who will get a lot more looks with Brandin Cooks out this week. Woods has yet to see the endzone this year, but with almost 13 yards per catch on 45 receptions, it’s only a matter of time until Woods scores six.
Tight end Gerald Everett ranks in the top-10 at his position with 34 catches for an average of 11 yards per catch and over 40 yards per game. As a maddening point of reference, Bears future Hall of Fame TE Adam Shaheen is averaging nine receiving yards and 1 reception per appearance. Sweet!
Underused and struggling Todd Gurley doesn’t pose much of a threat out in the passing game out of the backfield, averaging only 1.5 catches per game. Rams coach Sean McVay has relied less and less on Gurley in both the run and pass; a decision which has not sat very well with the once elite running back. If McVay wants to quiet some critics and appease his star, look for the Bears to get forced fed a steady diet of Gurley.
So, in a worst case scenario for the Bears, what does Goff do this Sunday night?
Well, here’s your answer, and it’s not pretty:
This was from Week 4 against Tampa Bay. Ho. Lee. Shit. 68 attempts, 517 yards – this is some quarterback porn right here people.
OK, so then what is the best case scenario for a somewhat struggling Bears defense?
Take a peek at Goff’s Week 6 performance against a solid 49ers defense:
As you can see here, Goff wasn’t able to complete a single pass over 10 yards. This type of offensive game-plan fits very well into the Bears defensive scheme due to the speed of the linebackers and athleticism of the defensive line.
What does it all mean?
This game lies squarely on the shoulders of Jared Goff. If Goff is good, not even great, the Rams will win handily. But if Goff replicates last year’s performance against the Bears or his Week 6 struggles against the 49ers, the Bears will win a very low scoring game.
Rams 24 – Bears 10
Welcome back to THE VAULT, my weekly sacrifice to the Dark Lord of Bears fandom. Through a combination of a shrine to Josh Bellamy and a woven idol made entirely of Bobby Engram’s discarded trash, I hope to write 750 words and pay tribute to the fans before me so that one day during my darkest hour the spirits of men in mustaches and sweater vests whisk me to safety. Also if this blog blows up and I make this my full time job, I hope to one day be in the position to insult Jay Mariotti to his stupid face.
Speaking of Jay’s that I’ll never be cool enough to even insult, Jay Cutler’s 2015 Bears were a John Fox led 6-10 dumpster fire that shares an uncomfortable level of talent with Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy’s 2019 eventual 7-9 shitshow. Let it be noted once again, if prime Jay Cutler was under center for this team, they’d be playing a lot better until he inevitably got hurt and the Bears had to turn to one of their menagerie of garbage backups (the 2015 season being highlighted by Jimmy Clausen’s outstanding performance against Seattle- a game that might not look out of place this year).
The Bears were 3-5 going up against the then 4-4 St. Louis Rams, in a game won handily by the good guys, 37-13. Not only did Jeremy Langford out perform Todd Gurley in every statistical category, Ka’Deem Carey also gained more yards on the ground than Gurley. Langford caught a screen pass and took it EIGHTY THREE (shouts out to Clark from Des Plaines) yards to paydirt. Hell, even Zach Miller scored from over eighty yards out, grabbing 5 balls for 107 and 2 touchdowns. Zach Miller was the last capable Bears tight end and that’s sad because he was literally a journeyman though he played way above his pay grade in his time in Chicago.
It’s always been a testament to the various Bears offensive lines that so many mid-round, ostensibly just average running backs have found success in the blue and orange. Jeremy Langford got 537 of his career 762 rushing yards his rookie year despite backing up Matt Forte for more than half the season, and was then replaced by Jordan Howard three games into the next year. Jordan Howard is a beast and should be on an NFL roster, but he is about a league average running back depending on his situation. The John Fox-led Bears was the perfect situation for a relatively slow, grinding running back that gets more effective as the game goes on.
Jeremy Langford, Alshon Jeffery, and Marty Bennett are the Bears players on the offensive side of the ball for this team that the Bears turned loose for one reason or another, and the only one I really think could’ve stayed and made a difference on the field was Marty. Notable castoffs on defense are Adrian Amos, Bryce Callahan, and of course a now retired Willie Young. Goddamn I loved Willie Young.
You can see some of the building blocks of last year’s NFC Champion Rams on this 2015 trash heap football team, mainly Gurley and Aaron Donald. Sure, Jared Goff is just blonde Mitch, but he had a core intact that made Sean McVay look pretty damn smart for a year. Sounds familiar, somehow. Also, we have a Big Dick Nick sighting, as America’s favorite cocksman was the godawful Rams QB of the week!
Also, James Laurinaitis was on this team! The son of BIG JOHNNY himself! This game took place years after the John Laurinaitis/CM Punk feud, but I’d still like to think the Bears won this one for Phil Brooks as well as themselves. Even though CM Punk ignored me when I yelled “HEY YOU’RE CM PUNK” while reeking of weed walking down North Avenue last spring, I still believe in CM Punk, and I think Zach Miller knew in his heart that breaking two tackles and racing down the field to score was basically hitting a Go To Sleep in the heart of one disappointed father.
It’s narratives like that, ones that I’ve just totally made up, that provide the much needed subtext to make this game between two shitty teams mean something to you in 2019. Zach Miller, CM Punk, John Fox, what does it mean? Well, for one, it means the Bears aren’t winning jack shit anytime soon.
We’ve already seen Todd Gurley break down, and the 2018 Rams lost all their momentum near the end of the regular season. The then red-hot Bears exposed the weaknesses Goff and friends had on primetime, and Sean McVay no longer looks like the greatest coach in the history of coaching. It’s entirely fatalistic and somewhat reasonable to suggest that Matt and Mitch are already at 2019 levels of McVay/Goff regression, with less to put on their resumes. It’s eerie to look at these two teams in 2015 and see foreshadowing somehow, but it’s there and it’s hideous.
So, is there anything to be gleaned from an actual win? Or just too much effort to get past a Lions team with no Matthew Stafford?
Brian Schmitz: What I really liked was the success we saw when Nagy went no huddle and got Mitch outside of the pocket. I’ve been screaming for it all year. It’s the only way this team has a chance to be successful. Another positive was the “touchdown to checkdown” mentality we saw from the QB.
Do they lose to a Lions team with a healthy Matt Stafford? Probably? But a win is a win.
Tony Martin: Yesterday was ugly. Yesterday was the type of date you go on where you would qualify it as a success, but it didn’t feel good in any way whatsoever. Bears fans and their 2019 team went to Olive Garden and had the most authentic Italian food that Chicago had to offer, went to the finest Bar Louie location in the city for that big city corner bar experience, and then we all went back to their place and had consensual sex, but every step involved lacked passion. This Bears team is not a team you bring home to meet your folks, this is the team you call when those highlight videos of the 2006 team just don’t do it for you like they used to. I apologize for the overly erotic metaphor, but this team has been fucking me since September and I haven’t even sniffed the unlimited salad and breadsticks.
Wes French: I think the Bears (and maybe Capitalism/social constructs?) have finally broken Tony, and after a win no less.
To me it was a lot more of the same, papered over with the fact that Matt Patricia is a bad head coach and was without his QB1. Sure, we got a decently competent looking Trubs for a stretch, and hopefully there was enough there to build off of. The offense still only produced 226 yards, while the defense gave up 357. The first four possessions for the Bears saw three three-and-outs and another that gained all of 12 yards before a punt. seven of 12 drives ending three-and-out is not exactly a recipe for success.
The bookend TDs before and after the half were great to see, but Nagy still couldn’t get the right game plan or execution to put the game away fully and we had to watch as the Lions nearly came all the way back to tie the game late. The defense gave up a four-play, 81 yard TD drive with a few minutes to play, then were aided by an offensive PI call to help close out the game as the Lions drove deep into Chicago’s end on the final drive.
A win’s a win, but it wasn’t real encouraging.
Tony: I’m frequently jostled from sleep trembling, shaking, in a cold sweat. I’ve been out of work for 21 days, my money is running out- I feel like Tarik Cohen taking an RPO up the middle on 1st and 10. Scrambling, nervous thoughts fill my days as I email and call potential employers. Mitch Trubisky haunts my indecision about taking a job offer in Freeport; am I just checking down when the Allen Robinson of jobs is just breaking free downfield? Did I make the right choice? Or am I Matt Nagy: unable to take criticism and adapt to a rapidly changing landscape?
The 2019 Chicago Bears have been playing this season like a depressed 33-year-old, and it took me until Week 10 to realize it.
(Off the record: I’m good, y’all. Just leaning in a little bit)
How big of a problem will Danny Trevathan’s absence be going forward? This was already a team hurting down the middle of defense without Akiem Hicks…
Wes: Not as big of an issue as all the other problems? The Nicks (Kwiatkoski and Williams) stepped up on Sunday, but Roquan is still MIA for the most part. Trevathan and his intangibles will be noticeably missed, but the Bears could do worse than giving the load to Kwiatkoski. Maybe Roquan can use this opportunity to turn his season around, and that would be a welcome positive storyline in a season full of shitty ones.
Tony: I feel for Danny on more of an existential sense than for what his loss means for the team, because let’s be real, without Hicks both Danny and Roquan have struggle to consistently fill the gaps like they’re used to. I’m afraid this is the last time we’ll see Danny Trevathan in a Bears uniform, because as we know his contract expires at the end of this season. I think how the organization handles Danny’s contract situation will tell us a lot about where they think they are in the championship window. Hoping they bring him back and he retires a Bear.
Brian: The defense will probably be worse off, but it’s not like the unit is a world beater right now. They are having trouble getting to the QB, and although Trevathan is a beast, he, like most of the defense, isn’t having as good of a year as last. God forbid anyone on the team from UGA decides to step up and be as good as they were supposed to be.
Mitch Can Play One Quarter: Here’s the thing for me: The Bears were never going to pull out of this tailspin like James Bond in the opening of “Goldeneye” and reverse the plan over the mountain. Which probably means that plane would have crashed and this metaphor or reference is a goddamn mess. But I’ve already written it, and you know how I feel about editing. What I mean is that the Bears weren’t going to lose four in a row, and then suddenly look great and beat someone 35-3 or something.
Yes, without Matthew Stafford starting, you’d like to think the Bears could have done more. Yes, against this defense you’d like to think they could have managed more than 20 points. But seeing as how 20 points had become Shangri-La this season for the Lakefront Bunch, we’ll have to take the baby step. And in the end, they only gave up one touchdown to whatever a Jeff Driskel is, and even that on a desperation heave that Kyle Fuller simply fell down under, maybe it’s not worth losing one’s mud over.
And hey, there were flickers of hope from Mitch Trubisky. It was all in one quarter, but that’s something. Three TD passes and a couple of them really nice throws. The Bears got Mitch in a hurry-up and out of the pocket, two things he seems to do better than everything else. So for one drive in the second and two in the third (one off a turnover, but that hadn’t been happening of late either) the Bears looked like some version of the team we expected. .
Ok, they punted five times after that with just two first downs, but I’m trying everything I can here.
Mitch Also Can’t Seem To Recognize A Blitz: This perhaps is on the offensive line as much as it is Mitch, as they’ve missed called and slid blocking the wrong way all season. And the switching back of James Daniels and Cody Whitehair didn’t really have much effect on a unit that’s been disappointing all season. Then again, it probably wasn’t going to in the very first week the Bears went back to it. Though it might help if Whitehair’s shotgun snaps didn’t look like a whoopi cushion deflating.
Still, of the five sacks the Bears gave up, you could pin them on Mitch just as much. All season, when teams have brought pressure, especially when they’re bringing everyone and more blockers than the Bears have. Trubisky has held the ball too long expecting things to hold up. At some point a free runner is the QB’s responsibility, and you’ve got to get the ball out to someone quickly. I have no idea if the call isn’t being made or Mitch just isn’t seeing it, but something has to change because these are the situations where the ball is supposed to get in the hands of Gabriel or Miller or Cohen quickly with room to run thanks to man-coverage and extra defenders behind then after blitzing. It doesn’t happen. It’s going to have to soon. The Bears are leaving big plays out there and also taking on big ones against with every sack that involves the ball being held too long.
Boy, The Middle Of The Bears D Sure Likes To Dislocate Its Elbows: It’s likely that Danny Trevathan’s Bears career is over, which sucks because he’s been everything an adult NFL linebacker should be and certainly was a big part of the swag this unit has had the last three seasons. It also erodes depth and possibly overall skill, which isn’t something the Bears can handle right now. They were already getting runs up their giggy without Akiem Hicks but Trevathan there. Now what?
That said, Nick Kwiatkoski made plays when stepping in for Roquan against the Vikings in Week 4, and he made plays stepping in for Trevathan yesterday. Now, do I believe this LB who is generously listed at 6-2 can get it done in a full-time role? Not exactly, but I also know he’s earned the right to be first call and to find out. Probably something of a trial by fire for him, because the Rams are going to run a fuckton of crossing routes right in his grill next Sunday night.
Everything you need for this afternoon’s NFC North dance…
vs. 
RECORDS: Lions 3-4-1 Bears 3-5
Kickoff: 12pm
TV: CBS 2
THAT DORK LOOKS LIKE JAM: Pride Of Detroit
Do you get the impression the Bears would rather play on the road these days? A home date with the Lions should be a joyous occasion, and it usually has been in the past, but considering the air around the Bears and the suddenness with which Soldier Field can turn toxic, you really feel like the Bears had better score on their first drive or it’s going to bet poisonous in a hurry. They might be booing at the pregame tailgate. Mitch Trubisky pointing at the TVs screaming, “DEATH!!!” isn’t going to help the cause much.
So the Bears will have to turn it around against what’s normally their favorite punching bag, and really everyone’s favorite punching bag. Luckily, the Lions contain some things that could really help the Bears if they’ve conditioned themselves during the week to change. Sadly, they also contain the Bears destruction within them as well.
First the good news. As my father would say, “The Lions defense stinkums.” They’re 27th in rush yards against per game, 31st in pass yards per game against, 27th in sacks, 27th in interceptions, and 27th in points against. So yeah, you’d think with the lack of pass rush and the lack of ballhawks and the lack of linebackers total, the Bears could actually find something they could do successfully against this outfit. Whether that’s lining up in the I more often and simply running the ball, or getting to play-action off of that, or rolling Mitch out where he’s clearly more comfortable, the Lions offer a fucking buffet of things you can get to them through. Then again, the Chargers were dressing their bus driver as a d-linemen and the Bears couldn’t crack that code until late. So no guarantees here.
The Lions defense has had various problems, including health in the secondary, but this chart is pretty telling (stick-tap to Jeremy Riesman at PoD for linking it):
Brain genius with birds living in his beard, and probable rapist, Matt Patricia hasn’t been able to get any pressure from his front four and they haven’t brought much heat either to try and make up for that. So maybe the Bears offensive line can hold up against this? And give Mitch time? Which won’t cause his eyes to drop to the rush? And maybe he can just pick-and-stick some guys in the open spaces? Am I asking too much? I probably am, aren’t I? More pissing in the wind, YAY!
Of course, it’s not that simple. On the flip side of the ball, Matt Stafford is playing at a ridiculous level, which Brian laid out here. I suppose the good news, if there is any on this front, is that he’s done his best work flinging the ball deep, which is something the Bears have given up next to nothing of this year. The plan against them has always been to get it out quick to avoid Khalil Mack ending your world, and the hope would be if Stafford and the Lions insist on taking their shots that Mack and Leonard Floyd (brief flickering signs of life last week) and others can get to Stafford to either bring him down or force errant throws. Then again, Stafford’s been so good at this he might be able to find the shots others haven’t. Then it could be trouble.
But hey, more good news. The Lions can’t run the ball for shit. Have they ever? This is just like the Lions condition, right? Like the Bears and quarterbacks? The Hawks and power plays? It’s just something they’ll never do. Anyway, Ty Johnson is averaging barely 3.5 yards per carry, and they don’t even go to him much as he’s gotten over 10 carries just once this season since he took over for Kerryon Johnson, who’s on IR with knee-knack. So whereas the Chargers and Eagles and Raiders and oh fuck let’s just stop it here pretty much ran it up the Bears giggy, that’s not something the Lions are built or even motivated to try.
The things is though, the Lions are a couple inches from being 5-2-1 or even better. The refs screwed them over in Green Bay. They had a last-second loss to the Chiefs. They probably should have beaten the Raiders last week. So they have just as much reason to look at the Bears and think they can get healthy against them as the Bears do looking the other way. Other than Mack, who will be heavily watched, Stafford is the best player on the field and is capable of winning this on his own given the right breeze.
Still, the Bears are basically built to not have a quarterback beat them. Yeah, sure, the defense hasn’t gotten the big stops they’ve needed the past two games, and even Denver drove right down the field against them in the 4th. But a lot of that was predicated on rushing attacks, which the Lions just don’t have. And does Stafford really have the patience to five- and six-yard outlet his way down the field? He might, but you have to feel there’ll be a shot or two that Eddie Jackson or Kyle Fuller can get their hands on.
So if they can keep Stafford from going power cosmic, you have to believe the Bears offense will find SOMETHING against this team. Maybe not 35 points something, but like 24? Detroit has given up 23 or more points in every game save one. The fucking Giants hung 31 on them. If Daniel Jones can go for 322 yards against this collection of lost souls, surely Mitch can have at least a decent game? Right? Right?!
This is it for the Bears, this next month. They get the Lions twice and the Giants, and a Sunday night in LA. Win those three and sneak some weird victory out of the Coliseum (where they come to see ’em), and the season isn’t lost. Hell, just take the three you’re supposed to and you’re 6-6 with at least something to hope for in December. But it has to start with one. If you can’t get this one, it’s pack up the cats time.
Bears Offense vs. Lions Defense
Lions Offense vs. Bears Defense
You are what you eat, they say. If the old adage rings true for NFL coaches, you are what your team is. In that case, Matt Nagy is a colossal letdown. I’m sure he’s a great guy, but his team has forgotten where Club Dub is and Matt is the Lyft driver whose phone just died. He’s spent the last few weeks pretty much just defending Mitch, so it feels like the other areas of the team is suffering due to neglect. The Eagles game was atrocious. The Bears were penalized nine times for 70 yards which doesn’t sound too bad but a handful of those penalties were pre-snap. Nagy, as is Bears coach tradition, has also forgotten how to properly utilize his timeouts, his challenge record is spotty at best, and his clock management has been terrible this year.
Multiple games have seen Nagy attempt a hurry up offense at the end of the half with minimal timeouts remaining and the resulting quick three-and-out and punt has put opposing teams in a spot where they can try to get points instead. During the Packers game when the Bears went for it on fourth down early in the 4th while in field goal range, with a defense that was playing excellently, it dawned on me: Matt Nagy is a 17-year-old playing Madden. Sure, he’s old enough to know better than to do it, but when his system isn’t working he tries to make it work instead of playing to the situation. Running a four-vertical play against a defense that had been getting to the QB with just a three- or four-man rush is totally something your idiot teenager cousin would do right before he takes a sack and turns off the Playstation.
It’s hard to know exactly what level of control Nagy has over the defensive play-calling, but that’s also been suspect. The Bears have stopped blitzing frequently, relying on the front-4 to bring pressure. Offenses have this team figured out, and the defense hasn’t adjusted from a philosophical standpoint. Matt Stafford can pick this team apart if given time, but he can also make mistakes if he is pressured. Let’s hope the Nagy/Pagano brain-trust picks that one up and doesn’t rely on Aaron Lynch to beat a left tackle in under five seconds.
The edge in this match-up has to go to Matt Patricia, right? The Lions are by no means a playoff team, but they’re a competent football team with less talent than they need to be serious contenders. The Lions don’t look great, but Matt Nagy is also not putting his team in a position to be successful. Too many of the routes being run were five-man curls or short routes that ended with a Mitch sack because an effectively run short zone defense wipes out 95% of the Bears offensive plays. When the Bears were moving the ball, it was because they were down by multiple scores and because it seemed like the first time in weeks that Nagy played to the team and Mitch’s strengths.
Even so, this offense has become so predictable that it’s hard to see how they can be successful at anything. If Matt Patricia wants to win this game by out-coaching Matt Nagy, all he needs to do is watch the tape, where the Bears offense has successfully telegraphed themselves into obsolescence.
Tell me more about the previously indicted for sexual assault head coach of the Lions, won’t you Wes?
Matt Nagy is pretty damn STINKY this year, which you’ve laid out nicely. But I’m not sure that Matt Patricia takes the edge based solely on how crappy Nagy has been in year two.
Patricia, also in his sophomore season as head coach, is failing Detroit in ways that everyone thought he’d succeed – his defense. Detroit currently ranks 31st on defense, giving up a staggering 424 yards a game on average. This is after the team spent pretty heavily on the defensive side this offseason, bringing in former Patricia players from New England in Trey Flowers and Justin Coleman. The results on those two and the defense as a whole are clearly pretty poor, and whatever the plan was in terms of a system or tweaking said system isn’t working.
Detroit chose to move on from the statue that is Jim Caldwell in early 2018 in favor of Patricia even though Caldwell had winning seasons in three of his four years in Detroit, albeit with some poor playoff performances. If the plan was to bring in a Belichick disciple and have him elevate your team to that next level, Patricia’s short tenure can be generously described as a disappointment. He continues the long history of coaches leaving New England and subsequently failing, usually miserably. There’s time to turn it around, but the natives are getting pretty restless in Detroit and his players seems to be on the verge of mutiny as well.
Sure sounds an awful lot like the Lions have the same kind of issues on defense as Nagy and the Bears have with the offense: A scheme that either isn’t being executed/grasped properly by the personnel, not having the right personnel or some combination of the two. Regardless, it ain’t working. Patricia claimed him and Darius Slay spoke about his post-Raiders loss comments and they’re now on the same page, that some of the comments were mischaracterized by the media, that he sees the plays and he needs to coach better but they’re working and they’re close….sound familiar? This is all after Detroit gave up 450 yards to Oakland, including a 75-yard drive late in the 4th to seal the game while also failing to force a punt for the first three quarters. (what sort of shitty team allows the Oakland Raiders to go almost the length of the field in the 4th quarter to give up a game losing touchdown? Terrible. -Tony)
We’ve had this conversation before, most recently ahead of the Chargers game; the Bears offense is dreadful and they’re about to face a defense that’s as equally, if not more, inept than they are. SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE, RIGHT??? We’re gonna find out if the Detroit defense is just the right medicine Trubisky, Nagy and the Bears need or if Patricia can use Nagy’s poor year to get his defense back on track. This is a pretty massive week for both of these teams, kicking off stretches of four games with three they each have to feel are winnable (DET/CHI play twice between now and turkey day, sandwiched around CHI @LAR/vsNYG and DET vsDAL/@WSH). Three wins in the next four would put each team at six wins on the year and in the hunt for the Wild Card, but anything less and you’re going to start hearing about whether or not either of these guys gets a crack at year three.
Nagy has his fantastic first season to buoy him, IMO. And maybe with a different QB the Bears look A LOT better. I think the Bears have to have a total disaster of a 2nd half for Nagy to lose his job. Patricia on the other hand, is coming off 6-10 and another losing season after the investments made and the depressing defense (allegedly his strong suit) could see him and possibly most of the Detroit front office fired into the sun. Matt Stafford isn’t getting any younger and his offense is performing well enough to win games, and none of that sentence bodes well for the defense-focused first time Head Coach staying in charge without showing progress – and quickly. Here’s to hoping Nagy can help Patricia start finding a real estate agent sooner than later.
I have an unpopular opinion to share: Matthew Stafford is a Hall of Fame Quarterback who is more skilled than Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Additionally, if Stafford played in the Patriots system his entire career, he would be the GOAT and it really wouldn’t even be that close.
Now that I have your attention, let’s look at some all-time career numbers that back up my above-noted proclamation:
- Career Passing Yards Per Game = 2nd
- Career Passing Yards = 18th
- Career Passing TD’s = 19th
- Career Passer Rating = 22nd
- Career 4th Quarter Comebacks = 10th
What is most impressive about these numbers is that Stafford is doing it with a Lions organization that can’t draft or develop anybody and has a long and dubious track record of having the worst front office in all of football.
Finally, don’t come at me with the whole “Stat Mafford” idea that his stats are ballooned because they are always trailing, and thus, have to throw the ball. Brees, Brady, Manning x2, Marino, Favre, Rivers, Elway, Roethlisberger, Flacco, and A.Rod are just SOME of the names that have attempted more passes than Stafford.
What you are going to see Sunday at Soldier Field is a guy who may be having the best year in a Hall of Fame career. This season, league-wide, Stafford currents ranks:
- Total Passing Yards = 4th
- Passing Yards Per Game = 1st
- Touchdowns = 2nd
- Passer Rating = 5th
In an effort to better explain Stafford’s 2019 numbers, let’s look at how they compare to Bears QB Mitch Trubisky:
- Total Passing Yards = Stafford 2,499/Trubisky 1,217
- Passing Yards Per Game = Stafford 312/Trubisky 174
- Touchdowns = Stafford 19/Trubisky 5
- Passer Rating = Stafford 106/Trubisky 80
There is nothing like comparing an opposing QB to Mitch in an effort to better build your case for the former.
Thru 7 games this season, Stafford’s throw charts are as impressive as it gets. In recent weeks, you can clearly see that the preference for deep balls to the left hash and outside is his go zone; the last 8 out of 10 TD throws have gone to the left side and 12 of 19 TDs have been thrown to that side of the field.
This is as impressive as it is scary; especially for the Bears secondary, who is coming into the game playing as good as they have all season. They’ll have to continue this trend because Kenny Golladay is coming into town and he’s not fucking around. Golladay ranks in the top 10 in almost every receiving category and leads the league in TD catches with 7. Marvin Jones will line up opposite Golladay, and actually has more catches (42) and only 1 less TD. Veteran receiver Danny Amendola (31 catches) rounds out a very formidable receiving corps.
Stafford doesn’t rely very heavily on his backfield in either the running game or the passing game. Running Back Kerryon Johnson is averaging about 50 rushing yards and only about 2 passing targets out of the backfield per game. All told, the Lions average just fewer than 100 rushing yards on 26 attempts per game.
Defending Stafford is difficult due to his ability to stay in pocket. He is tough, and will take some hits in order to complete a pass. He will also be a little careless with the ball, both in holding onto it and taking chances on throwing into tight spaces.
In predicting what we will see from Stafford on Sunday, I feel he will be able to make a lot throws, but will also give 1 or 2 back to the Bears. Ultimately, Stafford’s vertical passing and play-action game will make the difference in a close game.
Bears 17, Lions 20
