Baseball

Methods Of Control

By Sam Fels 1549 0

The first few days of Chicago baseball haven’t lacked for intrigue, that’s for sure. And while I’m tempted to wade into the Cubs start and project not only how their first four games already mean the organization is a failure, but the entire city one as well, I’ll try and stay out of that for now. Let’s give it two more at least. Still, there was a curious cross-section of pitchers trying to improve their control over the weekend.

Let’s start on the Southside. There’s still a lot of hope for Lucas Giolito. After all, he was the prize of the Adam Eaton deal, and with Michael Kopech REHABBING SO HARD, BRO, there’s more focus on the starters who are here. Giolito flashed some decent control in his cameo with the Sox in 2017, but as is one of our favorite turn of phrase around here, couldn’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo last year.

For Giolito to become anything like he’s promised, he had to make some changes. So his changes were to try and simplify his delivery. What the Sox and Giolito are calling it is “shortening his arm swing.” When you watch Giolito, his arm now stays behind his head before coming forward to release. And while one start is hardly anything to base a statement of “he’s been saved!” he also did just toss his best start in the majors on Sunday. While there’s still a long way to go, both Giolito and the Sox have been encouraged by what his new motion has done for his pitches, even if he didn’t always get the results in Arizona.

There’s another pitcher, on the other side of town, who had serious control problems last year. His name is Tyler Chatwood. He won’t get the opportunity to start much this season, but he still could have a role to play. But in order to play that role, he needs changes, too. And for him as well, it seems to be a simplifying of his delivery. Here’s a pretty complete summation by Sahadev Sharma from February about what Chatwood was doing and what he’s trying to do. And if you watch Chatwood this season, everything is a bit smoother. It’s not as herky-jerky, this guy is hearing voices style. Everything at least appears to want to work in the same direction for the same cause instead of the four limbs each trying to play a drum solo method of last year.

Are the results there yet? No, no they are not. There were some encouraging outings in the spring but Saturday in Texas was…well, less than optimal. Still, Chatwood’s search for control has led to simpler and smoother.

There’s yet another pitcher that needs help with his command/control. His name is Carl Edwards Jr. And he’s the infuriating one, because it’s so easy to see what he could be. And his answer to trying to find greater control was…this?

Instead of simpler and smoother, we got far more complicated, based on goofiness and timing. And what do you know, it didn’t work, and he’s already abandoned it. How could both Chatwood’s and Edwards’s answer to their control problems be right? Sure, every pitcher is different, every pitcher’s problem is different, but this seems wildly inconsistent. I’m just a drunk with some thoughts, but it seems to me if control is the problem, you’d want simple as possible so that a pitcher could fall into it as quickly as possible and thus be able to repeat it as quickly as possible, which is the base for command. Instead, Edwards gave us Kabuki theater for the deaf.

While Edwards’s command has always been a problem, I would suggest the larger one is in his head. Here are Edwards’s splits from last year by leverage, according to FanGraphs:

Season Leverage K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K-BB% AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP xFIP
2018 Low Leverage 14.14 3.86 3.67 0.64 35.5 % 9.7 % 25.8 % – – – 1.43 .394 80.7 % 2.23 2.72
2018 Medium Leverage 12.18 6.26 1.95 0.33 32.2 % 16.5 % 15.7 % – – – 1.21 .224 91.8 % 3.01 4.11
2018 High Leverage 6.75 5.91 1.14 0.00 17.8 % 15.6 % 2.2 % – – – 1.41 .267 46.7 % 3.63 5.95

Not that a 3.86 BB/9 mark is all that good in low leverage, but you can at least work with it when you’re striking out almost four times as many hitters. But the bigger the situation, the worse those marks get. I’m not sure that’s something you fix via motion. Feels like something you fix by smoking weed, honestly.

Same thing for 2017:

Season Leverage K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 K% BB% K-BB% AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP xFIP
2017 Low Leverage 11.10 4.44 2.50 0.37 30.9 % 12.4 % 18.6 % – – – 0.99 .208 100.0 % 2.83 3.76
2017 Medium Leverage 13.21 4.11 3.21 0.59 40.2 % 12.5 % 27.7 % – – – 0.72 .122 80.2 % 2.64 2.77
2017 High Leverage 15.09 9.53 1.58 2.38 35.9 % 22.6 % 13.2 % – – – 1.85 .333 44.9 % 6.69 4.50

While the Cubs front office has been really good at telling you why it’s not their fault lately, more and more eyes have been focused on their inability to produce any pitcher, starter or reliever, from their own system. Edwards was acquired by trade, but would count. Basically, it’s only Kyle Hendricks. Hector Rondon was a Rule 5 pick of theirs, but isn’t here anymore. Anyone else?

Those questions will only get louder if Edwards doesn’t find it one day, and their handling of other pitchers continues to be all over the map.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Braves: There’s Only Been Three Of These

By Sam Fels 1342 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 1-2   Braves 0-3

GAMETIMES: Monday 6:10, Wednesday and Thursday 6:20

TV: NBCSN+ Chicago Monday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

DIRTY SOUTH TAKE: Talking Chop

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Sean Newcomb

Jon Lester vs. Julio Teheran

Yu Darvish vs. Max Fried

Probable Cubs Lineup

1. Albert Almora Jr. (R) CF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Javier Baez (R) SS
5. Willson Contreras (R) C
6. David Bote (R) 2B
7. Ben Zobrist (S) LF (Schwaber against the righty Teheran)
8. Jason Heyward (L) RF
Probably Braves Lineup
1. Ender Inciarte (L) CF
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
4. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) LF
5. Nick Markakis (L) RF
6. Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
7. Brian McCann (L) C
8. Dansby Swanson (R) SS
The apparent circus that the Cubs are going to be all season rolls into the ATL tonight, towing the collective raging angina of the fanbase. Just about everything you didn’t want to see go wrong for the Cubs did in Texas, and that’s going to prevent exactly no one from using two games as a symbol for what the whole season will be and as impetus to demonstrate how outraged they can be. If you’re already tired, I don’t blame you. This season has every chance of being The Unblinking Eye for merely the noise around it, not even what’s happening on the field.
Freshly inked Kyle Hendricks (contract, not tattoos, but wouldn’t that be something?) will make his season debut tonight, and seems to be about the only sure-thing on the Cubs. It might fly in the face of modern pitching thinking, but Hendricks is just going to roll up with those hangdog shoulders, his kid-being-forced-to-eat-vegetables expression, and outthink and out-craft lineups pretty much every start.
Thanks to Jose Quintana‘s rescue of Yu Darvish on Saturday, his first start of the season won’t come until the weekend, so Lester and Darvish will remain on regular rest. Darvish has some work to do to earn trust, where his picky, corner-seeking, possibly afraid-of-contact ways will have to be shelved in order for outs. We already did the Chatwood thing and don’t feel the need to relive it.
And the bullpen…you know what? Let’s just not right now.
To Atlanta, who spent their first weekend of the season getting giggy-stuffed by the Phillies in Philadelphia. Not exactly the time you wanted to catch the Fightin’s, with the whole buzz thing going on there. Anyway, this is their home-opener. Considering the Phillies’ splash, the Nationals signing Corbin and being spurned, and the Mets doing Mets things that always gets amplified, you might have forgotten it was the Braves who won this division last year. And this is still last year’s team with Josh Donaldson added to it, essentially.
What the perpetually red-assed Donaldson is anymore is the question. He has had serious injury problems the past two years, but at least flashed his old self in Cleveland for the season’s last six weeks. Then again, he’s only two years removed from a 5-WAR season in Toronto, and three removed from a 7-WAR one. The calf problems he battled are ones you’d like to think he can get past. It’s the shoulder ones that kept him out of the field for long stretches that are worrisome, and knocked nearly 100 points off his slugging last year.
Still, if they can get 75% of what Donaldson used to be, and add that to Acuna, Albies, and Freeman, that’s a hell of a base. Brian McCann will be around to make sure no one has any fun. Markakis had a career season in his mid-30s, and then fell victim to baseball’s war on money for anyone who doesn’t own a team. Inciarte catches everything.
Maybe it’s the rotation that keeps people from getting back to the Braves as the pick to repeat in the East. It’s a little pedestrian, at least until some kids pop. Sean Newcomb walks too many guys. Mike Foihaldkhalns is battling elbow-twang. Julio Teheran missed his window on being something other than “a guy.” Kyle Wright, and especially Bryse Wilson and Touki Toussaint are the hopes to come up and make it something more.
The pen is also looking more functional than inspirational, with near-Cub Arodys Vizcaino the closer and Chad Sobotka, Jonny Venters and his arm made of puddy at this point, and Not Rocky Biddle forming the hub of it. Again, the kids could be used here later in the year to give it more muscle. Max Fried, who starts the last game, could be someone who does that as well.
The Cubs could use some easy wins after the past two games. Sadly, the Braves aren’t pushovers. Your fatigue will probably last.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Indians: A Brief Stop At The Lake House

By Sam Fels 1202 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 1-2   Cleveland 1-2

FIRST PITCH: 3:10 Monday, 12:10 Wednesday

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Chicago Wednesday

Probable Pitchers

Ivan Nova vs. Mike Clevinger

Carlos Rodon vs. Corey Kluber

Probable Sox Lineup

1. Leury Garcia (S) CF

2. Yoan Moncada (S) 3B

3. Jose Abreu (R) DH

4. Yonder Alonso (L) 1B

5. Eloy Jimenez (R) LF

6. Daniel Palka (L) RF

7. Tim Anderson (R) SS

8. James McCann (R) C

9. Yolmer Sanchez (S) 2B

Probable Indians Lineup

1. Leonys Martin (L) CF
2. Jose Ramirez (S) 3B
3. Jake Bauers (L) LF
4. Carlos Santana (S) 1B
5. Hanley Ramirez (R) DH
6. Greg Allen (S) RF
7. Kevin Plawecki (R) C
8. Brad Miller (L) 2B
9. Eric Stamets (R) SS
You really wouldn’t want to spend any more time in Cleveland than you have to, and the White Sox will have that bonus for this trip to the shores of Lake Erie. The Sox are there for only two matinees, split up by a day off, before returning to the Southside on Thursday. This also is not a bad time to catch The Erie Warriors, as Francisco Lindor is still having ankle-knack and doesn’t look like he’ll be playing in this twofer. It’s actually unclear when Franky will suit up, as he didn’t make a proper spring training appearance either. And without him, boy does this lineup look short. We’ll get to that in a sec.
The White Sox will show off their new toy in Ivan Nova this afternoon. Nova was actually all right in Pittsburgh, being something of a “guy-plus” at the back end of their rotation. The worry is that his fly-ball rate was climbing each year in The Confluence, which you can get away with in PNC Park a little better than you can on the Southside. Have to wait on that, but Nova’s strike-heavy ways will fit in nicely in a rotation that still has wayward sons like Rodon and Giolito (though not based on yesterday). Nova attempted to feature a change-up more last season, giving him a third pitch, which is probably his best path to being something more than a seat-filler.
For Cleveland, they started the year in Minneapolis and managed all of five runs in three games, which looks like it might be a problem for them all season even when Lindor is around. They’ve always had a subpar outfield, and now it’s been stripped of Michael Brantley. Hanley Ramirez, staving off the taxidermist, is here to DH and make you feel good about your foot speed. Carlos Santana has gotten back to where he once belonged after a tepid detour to Philadelphia that only managed to sink one fantasy team of mine. He might be an improvement on Yonder Alonso, who was there last year. And they’re going to need it, because the lineup looks like it’s Jose Ramirez, Lindor, and him and then a big pile of goo.
As always at The Jake, it’s about the rotation. Champion Shithead Of The World Trevor Bauer might actually be the best here, as Corey Kluber starts to alligator wrestle with time and the odometer. Which only means his ERA might, might get above 3.00 this year. Carlos Carrasco continues to fill out the “Oh right they have him too!” role, and that says something when you’re talking about a pitcher who has struck out 10 hitters per nine innings the past three seasons he’s been healthy. Mike Clevinger makes for a hell of a fourth starter, and certainly the best flow of any #4 in the league.
The pen isn’t the monster it used to be. Both Cody Allen and his decline, as well as Andrew Miller have fucked off to greener pastures. In their place is Brad Hand‘s Rad Band, ghost of Cubs’ rebuild past Neil Ramirez, the seemingly undead Dan Otero, and a few other rotational names and faces who come in and throw 30 pitches per week at high velocity. Terry Francona has a way of maximizing these kinds of things, it’s just not the end-your-day unit it used to be.
This is probably Cleveland’s last hurrah as the given champ of the division. They’ve already been listening to offers for Kluber in their constant poor-crying state, and Captain Shithead is one more year away from free agency and could find himself on the block next winter too. There isn’t much in the system ready to arrive, and one day the Twins or the Sox are going to get it right, you’d think. The rotation is almost certainly pennant-worthy. It’s the rest that’s questionable.
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Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Rangers: When A Team Runs In Circles, It’s A Maddon World

By Sam Fels 1355 0

vs.

DATES & TIMES: Thursday 3:05, Saturday 7:05, Sunday 3:05

TV: WGN Thursday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

NILL ESCAPEES: Lone Star Ball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jon Lester vs. Mike Minor

Yu Darvish vs. Edinson Volquez

Cole Hamels vs. Lance Lynn

CUBS PROBABLE LINEUP

Ben Zobrist – 2B

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

David Bote – DH

 

RANGERS PROBABLE LINEUP

Shin-Soo Choo – DH

Rougned Odor – 2B

Elvis Andrus – SS

Nomar Mazara – RF

Joey Gallo – LF

Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B

Ronald Guzman – 1B

Jeff Mathis – C

Delino Deshields Jr. – CF

 

At least the offseason is over.

It’s been a long few months for Cubs fans. Not only did they have to sit and stew over two consecutive losses at home to end the season with two runs scored total (must be managed by Jeremy Colliton), but then their owner went and sat on the front office’s signing hands for months. So the relief that they’ll actually run out of the dugout is immeasurable today, if only to not see Tom Ricketts’s fucking face again. Let’s line it up and play.

The narratives are well known, but the one that will get overplayed from here on out is the status of Joe Maddon. Maddon didn’t turn out to be as innovative as we thought. He never shuts up even though he has little to say. The gimmicks and quirks have run a little dry. On the other hand, he took a beat up team last year through 43-straight days or whatever it ended up being and humped them (there’s an image for you) to 95 wins. We might be bored of all the lights and whistles, but the players aren’t and that’s what matters. Just don’t turn Steve Cishek into silly puddy again.

Another one Cubs fans might become hyper aware of is Opening Day starter Jon Lester and his decline. Lester was able to dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge his way through the season last year, but his strikeout-rate sank, his hard-contact against rose, and he basically had his defense to thank for it all. And now he’s 35. The BABIP Dragon can be a cruel foe. You won’t find a grindy-er guy than Lester who will sit on the corners no matter what, and maybe he’s got one last surge in him to be the guy he’s been. He’s certainly a bellwether on this team, and the rotation is buffeted enough that it can probably survive if he’s just huckin’ dead fish out there by July.

The other big story of the series is Yu Darvish returning to the Cubs and returning to Texas. A lot of where the Cubs go hinges on what Darvish can provide, as he’s something of a new acquisition this season. If he stays healthy. Which is a huge if, as you’re talking about a guy who hasn’t seen 200 innings since 2013 and is coming off an injury-ruined campaign. Spring training was fun, he looks good, but everyone looks good until they get hit. It feels boom-or-bust.

Other than that, the lineup could still be doomsday gun. The bullpen will be an adventure for a bit, until Pedro Strop comes in and everything will be fine. And remember, Carl Edwards Jr. is great until August. Worry about it then.

To the Rangers, who somehow are in the last year of their stay in Arlington because it’s like 18-years-old and that’s totally outdated and fuck you that’s why. Fuckin’ Texas. Anyway, moving into a new stadium in the middle of a rebuild is always a choice, but here we are. The Rangers are gonna be bad, the Angels, A’s, and Astros especially are going to eat their innards on the highway all year, and it’s going to be fucking hot as balls.

The rotation is reclamation projects galore, with Shelby Miller, Drew Smyly, and Lance Lynn populating it. Hell, Mike Minor, the starter today, is one. The hope is probably to get these guys looking like something before the deadline and flogging them for whatever they can scrape off the pavement. You don’t make long-term plans around Lance Lynn, in the same vein as friends and salad and such.

In the lineup, only Nomar Mazara–who seriously looks like he’s about to destroy a small town every time he steps into the box–and Ronald Guzman figure to be around when the Rangers matter again. Guzman doesn’t project to be a star, and Mazara has had three goes at the American League without punching through. So clock’s ticking. This is the first year Elvis Andrus will look to his right and not see Adrian Beltre, so he might spend the whole year in black and playing Smiths records. Which we all should when it comes to the absence of Beltre. Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo are here for your strikeouts, home runs, and Cousin Vinny jokes.

Hey Hey Holy Mackerel…

 

 

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Royals: …Adds Up At The Bottom

By Sam Fels 1488 0

vs.

DATES AND TIMES: Thursday 3:15, Saturday 1:15, Sunday 1:15

TV: NBCSN Chicago Thursday and Saturday, WGN Sunday

YOU WANNA TALK SOME JIVE?: Royals Review

PROBABLE STARTERS

Thursday: Carlos Rodon vs. Brad Keller

Saturday: Reynaldo Lopez vs. Some Whatsit

Sunday: Lucas Giolito vs. Some Whosit

PROJECTED WHITE SOX LINEUP

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Yolmer Sanchex – 2B

Jose Abreu – DH

Yonder Alonso – 1B

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Daniel Palka – RF

Welington Castillo – C

Tim Anderson – SS

Adam Engel – CF

PROJECTED ROYALS LINEUP

Adalberto Mondesi – SS

Whit Merrifield – 2B

Alex Gordon – LF

Jorge Soler – RF

Ryan O’Hearn – 1B

Hunter Dozier – 3B

Lucas Duda – DH

Martin Maldonado – C

Billy Hamilton – CF

Yeah, we’re gonna do this all season. Fuck it.

Despite most Sox fans protests and wishes, they will actually commence and play out a season this spring and summer, and it starts with a pretty soft landing in Kansas City. The Royals might be another team along with the Tigers the Sox can definitely look down on when all is said and done. That’s not saying much, but hey, it’s something. Can you believe it was only three and a half years ago the Royals were in consecutive World Series?

We’ll start with the Southside Nine, who will see Carlos Rodon and his quest to not end up in the bullpen start on Opening Day for the first time. Rodon’s search for a third pitch will go a long way to seeing that quest completed, and maybe also help him find the ability to strike out anyone which he lost last year. What’s scary is that Rodon had his nothing-year last year with a seriously depressed .242 BABIP against, which means he was pretty lucky to even get to that. Rodon’s one year of control in ’16 saw him throw more fastballs than he ever has, and he’s probably going to need to get back to that to have any control.

The main attraction for Sox fans will be of course the unveiling of Eloy Jimenez in left, and he’ll pretty much be the raison d’etre for the entire season with Michael Kopech suffering a case of elbow twang. There’s the hope that Yoan Moncada’s keen eye can finally sync with his hands and actually lead him to make contact more often and turn into what was projected. At least he won’t hurt anyone, or less people, at third base than second. Lucas Giolito will trot out his truncated motion for real for the first time, hoping that will allow him to find the strike zone more than once every couple of minutes.

All of that still adds up to a lot more than the Royals have going on, which you can tell by the fact that a Rule 5 pickup last year in Brad Keller (Old Man Keller’s boy, in case you’re asking) is going to take the ball on Opening Day. They still haven’t said who will follow that, and it might be Homer Bailey, which is just another word for “inferno.” Danny Duffy is hurt, and after that Jakob Junis and Jorge Lopez will try and make up the difference. Keller gets by on getting a ton of grounders, and much like the rest of the staff he doesn’t get a lot of Ks. But he kept an inordinate number of fly balls in the park last year, and Kauffman Stadium helps with that, but it won’t be that low again.

As for the lineup…well, they’ll run a lot? Between Mondesi, Merrifield, and Hamilton they could eclipse 120 steals right there, which would come close to leading the league alone. That’s assuming they can get Mondesi and Hamilton on base enough, which they can’t. Mondesi might get there if he goes Willie Mays Hayes and just keeps everything on the ground, but don’t count on it. As for the rest. Alex Gordon died and they have the worse Dozier. Jorge Soler is going to wheel out there along with my charred hopes of a modern-day Vladimir Guerrero (I guess I have to put Sr. now) with plate discipline, as that’s what I thought he would be only like three years ago. We’ll always have the ’15 playoffs, Jorge. And that homer against Pat Neshek in St. Louis that still hasn’t landed. And he’ll flash it just before something else on him falls off in May and he’s done for the rest of the year.

No, there’s no Manny Machado. No, there isn’t that much to watch other than Eloy until Cease and Madrigal arrive. But it’s better than it was. Off we go.

Baseball

Finally Some Good News: The Cerebral Assassin Signs Up

By Sam Fels 1411 0

It’s mostly been a spring training of gritted teeth, looks of disdain, and exasperated sighs out of Mesa, Arizona. This was not an offseason the filled any Cubs fan with glee, or even hope–of which is something we used to never even approach “E” on the tank–and the actual tossing of balls and swinging of bats didn’t do anything to lighten that. Manny Machado didn’t arrive. Neither did Bryce Harper, and it was only four or five months ago that was a foregone conclusion. In fact, no one arrived except Daniel Descalso and a couple of guys who max out at 30 pitches a week.

Once the Cubs sat out the winter, they also seemed to be sitting out extension season. Which actually made sense, as there was no one pressing who needed to be re-upped. But when your fanbase is already fed up with inaction, anyone doing anything elsewhere is cause to get even more so. Goldschmidt, Trout, Verlander, Arenado all re-upped, and meanwhile the Cubs had ass firmly planted on hands.

Or so it seemed. Today, both Kyle Hendricks and Jacob deGrom extended their deals with their teams. And I think it’s kind of poignant they did so on the same day. Because they’re a lot more alike than you think. And the $13.7M average on this ($12M next year and $14M the three years after to go along with the $7.4M he got through arbitration this year) is actually a steal.

The headline on this is that since 2016, there are six pitchers with a better ERA than Hendricks. They are Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw. Four of those guys make north of $30M per year or are about to, and Thor will join them soon enough (assuming his arm doesn’t actually splinter into pure gas). To get Hendricks at less than half of that is…well, it’s a trick.

Oh I know. ERA doesn’t mean what it once did. Those guys strike out the world, and figure to for the foreseeable future. There are less variable, if any, with them. Hendricks depends on his defense and movement and deception and his margin for error is always thinner than a pubic hair. I get it. And yet he’s danced on that edge for three seasons now without falling off. Maybe it’s just who he is?

Hendricks may not send everyone back to the dugout immediately with their tail between their legs, but he does have the second-highest soft-contact rate in that same timeframe of anyone. CC Sabathia is the only one ahead of him. Which means he runs a lower-than-most BABIP, or Batting Average On Balls Put In Play (15th). Yes, he’s always had at least an above-average infield behind him. But that’s A) by design and B) given the age of Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo, that doesn’t figure to change. Only second-base would seem to need a refreshing.

Even if you go by FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which seeks to take the defense out of the equation, Hendricks ranks 21st in the past three seasons by that measure. Right ahead of names like Bumgarner, Greinke, and Archer. Again, this isn’t really an accident.

If you were just to compare him to another pitcher to sign his extension today another season away from free agency in deGrom, it’s really weird to say. Yes, deGrom has a Rookie Of The Year and a Cy Young to his name, as well as odd capitalization. deGrom is also a year older, and their career ERA+ are 144 for deGrom and 134 for Hendricks. deGrom’s WHIP is 1.07 for his career and Hendricks’s 1.11. Their FIPs are 2.81 to 3.32. No, Hendricks isn’t deGrom, but he’s also probably a whole lot better than just half as good, as their new salaries would suggest. Also Hendricks does have top-3 Cy season on his resume, just for funsies.

And the Cubs need the savings. Cole Hamels is here for this season only. Jon Lester is off the books come November 2020. So will Jose Quintana. And the Cubs have exactly dick coming through the system to replace those guys, with only Adbert Alzolay having any chance of making the rotation, and he missed over half the season last year. The Cubs are going to have to go out and get more pitching, if there’s any to be found given the state of free agency now, and it’s going to cost. Having to not pay Hendricks what he could have easily made an argument for might be a life-saver.

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Baseball

A Cubs Fan’s Lament/Fear

By Sam Fels 1910 0

I told you we were going to try some new stuff here. Today it begins. My lament as the season draws close.

I had a hope that the approaching of Opening Day, along with watching basically the dress rehearsal against the Red Sox last night, would erase any feelings of bile or mistrust of the Cubs to come. Sadly I’m still searching for that..

If I were to tell you it’s not been the easiest offseason for Cubs fans, I’d have a pretty handy headshot and resume for an audition for the role of Captain Obvious. That would also seriously understate some pretty heavy issues that surround the Cubs, and baseball as a whole, that they encountered and failed to navigate all that well through the winter months.

I’m not going to tell you how to feel about the Cubs and your fandom. Your fandom is yours and yours to do with what you will. I don’t think there are any wrong answers. That’s not to suggest I’m at ease with any of it: Sinclair, Addison Russell, the lack of spending and the reasons/confusion/lies for it. While it seems silly to equate what the Cubs spend on their payroll to serious, all-world issues like domestic abuse and biased/bought media, at the base of it it still does get to labor relations, union rights, and income inequality, and that is an issue in our time.

For me, and I’m not prescribing this for you, I don’t want to be robbed of something I’ve loved my whole life, and has been a big part of my life, by someone I can’t beat through that route anyway. I could turn in my fancard, not buy tickets, burn all the memorabilia and not acquire more, not watch, but the only person who loses anything there is me. And you can say that if more felt like that, owners like Tom Ricketts would feel the pinch. Maybe, but even then he’s still a billionaire (or more accurately, the son of one), and the loss is small if even noticeable. There are other routes to change, and those are the ones I prefer to follow.

But there is one angle I can’t reconcile, which frightens me because it only comes about if the Cubs defy the projections and are the last one left standing come the end of October. And that’s a real possibility and that’s supposed only fill me with excitement and anticipation of the coming season.  Which is the whole point of being a fan, or most of it. And it was inspired by a piece on Deadspin by David Roth.

It generated an image inside my head, of the Cubs on the field at Wrigley, having just disposed of the Astros in six tough games (in what you’d have to call an upset, as the Astros lineup is the baseball version of the Infinity Gauntlet). Rob Manfred hands the trophy to Tom Ricketts. And he has this smile that doesn’t say he was right all along, but that he got away with it. You know that smile. You’ve seen it on tons of people who have advantages they didn’t earn and you don’t have, and also think they’re entitled or deserved, or worse, earned them. The smile of the guy you know you’ll never get one over, the one who’ll never lose. The one that says he knew better, when you know for damn sure he never did.

I’ve never thought of Ricketts as a dumb man. I’m not sure he is. I don’t think he’s a baseball genius or anything close. It doesn’t take a deep well of baseball understanding to just go and hire the best guy with the biggest name as an executive to lead your team’s turnaround. I think he probably is a genuine fan, but not as much as he plays up to cover what’s really going on. If he were a real fan, this offseason probably looks different.

I’m sure like me, you haven’t bought RIcketts’s claims that there just isn’t money for the Cubs to spend. It’s there, he just doesn’t want to. Doesn’t think he needs to. And he doesn’t, because the Cubs will be massively profitable no matter what happens on the field this year. Remember, he didn’t take action on his baseball operation until the stadium was half-empty most days. Which, fair enough, I guess.

But until the media asks some serious questions, which they haven’t, and the Ricketts family is forced to show the math on where the money is or where it didn’t come pouring in from that it was supposed to, no Cubs fan is going to take him at face value. You see the sellouts, you see the prices, you see the developments around the park, you know about BAMTECH, the new TV deal, etc. It’s the evidence you have.

And it’s not just the Cubs, of course. This is a baseball-wide problem. Teams aren’t going all out simply because they think there’s a better way or they have to stick to a more efficient way. They’re doing it because they can, because the CBA allows them to, because they’re still going to be profitable no matter their team’s fortunes, because the union can’t do much for another couple years, and even then it’s hard to figure how you break a cabal of billionaires. They’re doing this because they can.

And it is likely that the trophy and confetti and champagne will rain down on someone like Ricketts or Ricketts himself who will get away with it. The Dodgers could have a $300M payroll if they want, and they’re almost certainly the NL favorites. They may find the Yankees or Cleveland when they get there. You could extend this out, because really any team these days can spend what it wants. They didn’t.

On the surface, due to my personal feelings on the city of Boston after living there for three years, another Red Sox championship left my food tasting like dust. But deeper, it’s somewhat righteous. Because the Red Sox didn’t sit out last year’s free agent market and got themselves a J.D. Martinez. They could go even higher, but money didn’t seem to be filthy lucre to them. Sadly, they seemed to have been the only ones.

And it could be the Cubs. A healthy Darvish and a healthy Bryant makes a bigger difference to this team than a lot realize. They only need solid or expected contributions from pretty much everyone else, and maybe one surprise, to be zeroing in on 100 wins. The playoffs can be anything, as we know.

And should it result in the second parade in four seasons, something we couldn’t even conceive of just 10 years ago. Ricketts will be up there about being true to their plan, how they knew all along, that all we had to do was trust their work and the system. That’s what he’ll be selling, at least.

And it will all be horseshit.

They’re on this plan because Ricketts didn’t give Theo and Jed any other choice. Those two didn’t want it this way I’m almost sure of that. They didn’t do this because they had to. They did it because Tom could. And another championship lets him get away with it. To smugly smile at all of us who couldn’t do anything about it, or more likely, forgot about it entirely while being swept up in the season and playoff frenzy. That will be part of the moment I still dream about every day. That’s how they always get away with it. It’s the perfect crime. 

I’ve got seven months to figure out how to deal with it, if it comes to that. I may need them all.  

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