Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Pirates: And There Was Much Rejoicing

By Sam Fels 1406 0

A series win. A very good start. These things were late to the party for the Cubs this season, but they’re here now. And while most of Cubdom seems intent on bending and turning and balancing to tear down the wins, the Cubs put up 10 runs on a very good starter in Jameson Taillon, survived what is a pretty good Pirates staff for two wins. If you thought they were going to get all the games back to .500 at once, I hate to explain how things work. It’s a process.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-Jose Quintana said he wanted to use his change-up more. We didn’t see that in Milwaukee, partly because he wasn’t around long enough and when he was he was mostly turning around to look in the distance. He threw 13 of them tonight, which was more than 10% of his offerings, he got six swings and four whiffs from it. Very encouraging. Of course, everything was working tonight. Dotting his fastball, getting the curve over. I suppose the real test is when something isn’t working. But hey, this is a good step.

-The Cubs are averaging over six runs per game and Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, haven’t really done dick. That’s encouraging.

-Kyle Schwarber has struck out in seven of his last eight ABs, which is less than encouraging. He’s getting pelted with breaking pitches, and he’s going over the top of them pretty much every time. That’s fine with lefties, but is less so when it comes from righties as it has the past two nights. But hey, it’s just a stretch of three games. Let’s not go nuts here.

-Len and JD were mentioning on the broadcast how much more Jason Heyward is using his legs in his swing. It’s quite apparent. Maybe that’s a real change.

-Cishek has appeared in half of the Cubs games, so at least we’re still on that pace. He should be dust by Labor Day.

-Something has been made about the Cubs’ pen scoreless streak, but to me it’s kind of horseshit because they did let inherited runners score last night. Earned runs for relievers is always something a bit misleading. And when they took the lead Monday to the wire, they had a touchdown lead at least to work with. Not that that’s stopped them from self-immolating before. Mighty oaks from little acorns, I guess.

-I think Joe Maddon was just cold.

Onwards…

Baseball

Eloy Is Caught In-Between, And Yu Seems To Want To Move There

By Sam Fels 1241 0

I can always tell the mood of Sox fans by the angry texts Fifth Feather sends me. And as I’ve said, I’m only dabbling in Sox writing to annoy the piss out of him. But early in the season, he’s decided to get worked up about Eloy Jimenez. Certainly a 79 wRC+ or 83 DRC+, whichever nerd counter you prefer, is not what he or anyone had envisioned. And for Sox fans, wanting to make Cubs fans ache even more immediately is always a burning desire. Patience gets thinner when that’s an element.

More worrying is that Jimenez is making some pretty awful contact. Half of it has been on the ground, and only 13.8% of his contact has been hard. It would be one thing if he was unlucky and getting nipped and bitten by the BABIP Dragon. That is not the case so far.

It’s not hard to see what’s happening. Eloy is swinging a lot (50.6% of pitches, 45% is average), swinging a lot at pitches out of the zone 37%, average 29%) and not making contact a whole lot on any pitch (53% outside the zone, 66% overall, both well south of average). And it’s a classic combination that pitchers are using to attack him.

Here’s where Eloy is whiffing at fastballs:

And here’s where he’s whiffing on breaking balls:

His whiff percentages are pretty hideous when it comes to sliders and curves, and clearly he’s worried about being beat upstairs by heat that he’s going after everything that looks like it…until it ends up borrowing into the left-handed batters’ box. This is what happens to young hitters. You have to prove you can handle one before you stop seeing the other.

Most will tell you the way out of this is to just use the middle of the field and the opposite way. Give yourself time on the fastball and not be ahead of a breaking ball that way. And the past three games might be glimmers of hope. Monday, Jimenez singled twice up the middle, both on a fastball on a slider. Tuesday, Eloy’s first three ABs all ended in hard contact to either center or right, until he rolled over a single in the 8th. Yesterday saw another single to right.

It’s a process, but as he gets more comfortable I would think you would see louder and louder contact the other way, up the middle. And then he’ll start to swing it around the field, which is when the real fun starts.

-On the other side of town, as we lunge and bend to try and feel good about Yu Darvish starts, there’s been an alarming component of his last two.

Here’s a sample of what he was throwing in the first inning in his start in Atlanta:

Then in the fourth when he was pulled.

We see 93 and 94 turn into 92. Not a huge problem, but after only four innings of work somewhat curious. Let’s go to last night. Here’s Starling Marte‘s first AB:

94 and 95, almost 96 even. Now here’s the 5th, an inning before he was pulled:

91 and 92. That’s an even steeper drop-off. Joe Maddon told everyone after both games that he wanted to get Yu out while he could “feel good.” This ignores the fact that Yu is a living, breathing adult and probably knows exactly how he pitched. Yes, Yu is a thinker, and a quirky guy, and all the rest of it. But I would take some convincing that Joe didn’t see this drop in velocity each time.

Is he trying to burn it out in the early innings? Is he still building up arm-endurance from missing three-quarters of last year? Is the arm injury playing a role? Questions that don’t have answers yet.

Also, Yu is throwing that fastball far more than he has in years past, 47% of the time when for the past six years he’s pitched he’s kept that around 40%. We haven’t seen a sinker at all this season, which he used to throw 15-20% of the time. His curve really is his chocked back slider, but that has less effect when his fastball’s velocity keeps moving down to meet it as the game moves along.

It also seems that his first start has spooked him a bit, because the past two has seen him keep his breaking stuff in the zone a lot more. Which is fine to an extent, but to get whiffs your slider/curve needs to duck out of the zone eventually. His slider produced three whiffs on nine swings, his curve nary a one. Which is actually better than it was in Atlanta, where his slider only got three whiffs on 12 swings.

It’s another process, and I guess it’s trending in the right direction ever so subtly? But he’s going to have to find more gas in the fifth and sixth innings, or you would hope he does.

Baseball

Series Recap – Rays Sweep White Sox: You Better Believe That’s A Paddlin’

By Sam Fels 1209 0

The thing about catching three of the four max starters the Rays will use this year is that they’re all pretty good. So there’s a chance you’re going to spend three or four days struggling for offense. If you combine that with your starters having a communal trip to the zoo, well, you just might get swept to the tune of 24-7 over three games. Which is what the Sox managed this week. Maybe the daylight didn’t help?

-So progress isn’t always linear. After two starts with minimal walks, Carlos Rodon couldn’t find the plate much on Monday. I may be new here but walking more than a batter per inning isn’t going to usually result in anything people leave the park feeling good about. On the plus side, no extra-base hits suggest when he isn’t making his own trouble, there won’t be that much trouble.

-You might not get the joy I do out of this, but I like to think every homer Tommy Pham hits is a middle finger to the Cardinals, and I think there’s a part in all of us that can enjoy that. That said, he got some aid today from a wind that was howling out to right and carried more than one pop-up into something meaningful.

-Don Cooper is going to have his hands full between Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez. The latter has walked 12 in his three starts, which also happens to match his ERA at the moment. Once again, like his first start, Lopez didn’t feature much of an offspeed pitch, as he was fastball-slider. He threw 17 change-ups out of his 104 pitches, which only produced five swings and no whiffs. If teams are just going to spit on that, there’s not a lot of places to go.

-Some signs of life from Eloy Jimenez, with five singles. I have more on this tomorrow, but he’s classically caught in-between at the moment.

-I kind of wish they were recording Laurence Holmes’s reaction to Avisail Garcia’s big series.

-Tyler Glasnow got 18 outs, 11 of them via strikeout. There are plenty predicting he’s going to have a big year and make the Pirates think about that Chris Archer trade a lot. You can see why today. Here’s a difference between the two starters today. Glasnow only threw 17 curveballs, but he got five whiffs out of the seven swings at it. He also only threw eight sliders, which produced seven whiffs total. That’s some gross stuff.

 

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Pirates vs. Cubs: And I’m Coming Off This Long And Winding Road

By Sam Fels 1390 0

vs.

RECORDS: Pirates 5-3   Cubs 2-7

GAMETIMES: Monday 1:20, Wednesday and Thursday at 7:05

TV: ABC Monday, WGN Wednesday, NBCSN Chicago Thursday

THE CONFLUENCE: Bucs Dugout

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jameson Taillon vs. Jon Lester

Jordan Lyles vs. Yu Darvish

Joe Musgrove vs. Jose Quintana

Probable Pirates Lineup

Adam Frazier – 2B

Starling Marter – CF

Francisco Cervelli – C

Josh Bell – 1B

Piece Of Shit – 3B

Melky Cabrera – RF

JB Shuck – LF

Erik Gonzalez – SS

(note: the Bucs haven’t faced a lefty this year so not sure how that will change. Frazier and Shuck likely come out for Kevin Newman and Pablo Reyes). 

Cubs Lineup

Ben Zobrist – RF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Willson Contreras – C

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Jason Heyward – CF

Well, this should be quite the atmosphere, no? Not only is it the first time Cubs fans will congregate since Tom Ricketts sat on the front office’s hands for them, as well as bitched about the money they don’t have while opening up exclusive clubs left and right in Wrigley, but the Cubs decided to put extra hot sauce on this one by biffing their opening road trip to the tune of a 2-7 record. Usually Opening Day is one big hug. This one is going to have some grinding teeth.

Then again, there’s always grinding teeth when the Pirates are involved, as they can’t seem to shake their hold-me-back ways. They kicked it off this season when Chris Archer filled his diaper yesterday after Derek Dietrich stared at a home run, one that landed somewhere near Harrisburg, so Archer threw behind him. The Pirates got put in their place of course when Yasiel Puig wanted to fight them all and no one had the tires to take him up on the offer. Then again, would you?

It seems the Bucs are always a tightly-wound bunch placing chips on their own shoulders. It’s an organization that is always Sean Rodriguez beating up a cooler, making a big show of doing nothing. And that’s what the Pirates do, nothing. Their owner can’t be bothered to augment what should be a pretty good team, and he hasn’t in five seasons now. They collect their revenue sharing, put just enough of a product out there where you squint and see a contender with one or two moves that never come. And then we do it all over again the next season.

Because this team could be good. It throws a hell of a starting staff at you, with budding star Taillon, Archer, Trevor Williams, and Musgrove (part of the Gerrit Cole deal). It’s not the best rotation, but it isn’t far off, and it comes with a lot of angry fastballs. Some of them aren’t even at hitters!

The pen hasn’t started the year sending hearts aflutter. Felipe Vasquez is always a real problem, but no one else there has been able to find the plate (it can happen to others, people). If you’re bringing out Francisco Liriano from the bullpen, you’ve pretty much admitted you’re ready for an adventure every day. They strike a lot of people out (everyone does but the Cubs), but they don’t get there easily.

The lineup is very boom-or-bust right now, though getting six games in against whatever the Reds are tossing out there certainly is a help. Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, and old friend Melky Cabrera are crushin’ fools left and right so far on the nascent season. Marte, Cervelli, and Kang are wandering lost in the woods. Let’s just be relieved there’s no Christian Yelich here.

The Cubs will be lucky to get two of these in, as Wednesday night’s forecast looks especially gross. Probably should move that one up to the off-day tomorrow, but I also can’t remember when a game was actually moved up a day. After seeing two division winners last week, the Cubs get 12 games against teams that aren’t supposed to be anything more than middling. Maybe they can get healthy that way.

Albert Almora seems to have already lost his starting job in center, as Heyward has moved over the past couple days to accommodate Descalso at second. Is that where Ian Happ will go eventually? Who knows? Maybe Joe Maddon is just riding the Heyward wave. They don’t last long so you have to.

Enough of this happy horseshit. Time to get the season back on track.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Rays vs. White Sox: Missing Out On The New Wave

By Sam Fels 1282 0

vs.

RECORDS: Rays 7-3   Sox 3-5

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 1:10pm

TV: WGN Monday, NBCSN Tuesday and Wednesday

DOING 40 IN THE LEFT LANE WITH THE BLINKER ON: D Rays Bay

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Ian Snell vs. Carlos Rodon

Charlie Morton vs. TBD

Tyler Glasnow vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Probably Rays Lineup

Austin Meadows – RF

Yandy Diaz – 1B

Tommy Pham – LF

Daniel Robertson – 2B

Avisail Garcia – DH

Mike Zunino – C

Kevin Kiermaier – CF

Willy Adames – SS

Christian Arroyo – 3B

(Meadows, Diaz, and Robertson platoon, so Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi are likely back in against a righty)

 

Probable Sox Lineup

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – DH

Yonder Alonso – 1B

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Daniel Palka – RF

Welington Castillo – C

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanches – 2B

 

When facing the Rays, you usually get to see the path baseball will probably take and get an “opener” or two (Lord knows I could use an “opener” today). But the Sox will get three of their actual starters this week, in three matinees meant to avoid the April chills at night. And one of them just happens to be the reigning Cy Young winner. So that’s nice.

The Rays have jumped out in front of the AL East, with the Red Sox having something of a wobble in their season-opening West Coast trip and all the Yankees being broken. And they’ve done it by their rotation being excellent so far, with all of Snell, Glasnow, Morton, and Yonny Chirinos throwing darts out there. Snell, Morton, and Chirinos are all striking out over 10 per nine innings, and Glasnow isn’t walking anyone to make up for his still-good-but-not-as-good strikeout numbers. Which is weird coming from Tampa, as they’ve sort of specialized in recent years how to get around not having any rotation at all. This is Dylan going electric, man!

It also helps to have three relievers who haven’t given up a run as the Rays do in Jose Alvarado (and his magic fastball), Diego Castillo, and Adam Kolarek, along with Jalen Beeks (Wonderful news, Beeks!).

Which is peachy keen, as the Rays aren’t scoring much, and don’t really project to. They only have 34 runs on the year, which is plenty enough when you’ve only surrendered 19 in 10 games. No other team in the AL has given up less than 26. Diaz, Kiermaier, and Choi are the ones who have started the season hot, but other than that you’re going to be scratching your head at the rest of the lineup. That’s the Rays way. Tommy Pham is here and he’s not complaining yet, but it isn’t May yet either. This team gets by on catching everything though, which they do. That is when their pitchers actually allow a ball in play, which isn’t all that often.

The Sox will hope Carlos Rodon can build on a very promising start to the season, and Lopez can find it. They’ll take any pitching they can find, as they spent the last two days getting it upside their head from the Mariners. Moncada only had one hit on Saturday and Sunday, so clearly he’s now a bum again. Fifth Feather is already chewing his nails about Eloy, so a breakout from him would be welcomed as well.

 

 

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Brewers win 2 of 3 from Cubs: Too Much Ain’t Enough

By Sam Fels 1326 0

This is something we’re going to attempt throughout the baseball season. 162 game wraps are dizzying for you to read and us to write, so it’s a little easier on everyone if we just go by the series. 

When you score 10 runs, you’re supposed to win. Somehow, within the season’s first week, the Cubs have lost twice when scoring 10 runs. Well, not somehow. We know how. Which is what makes a routine 4-2 loss when you get Hader’d a little more frustrating than it should be. Because if you get the win that’s supposed to be automatic when you get a touchdown and a field goal, you shrug off the loss in the finale. Now you don’t. Anyway, let’s bust through some quick notes before I adjourn for Wrestlemania.

–Jose Quintana told everyone in Arizona he wanted to throw his change-up more this year. I don’t think six in an outing quite counts. That’s all he managed in his Friday immolation. When Q only goes with fastball-curve, it gives him no room for error whatsoever. It’s obviously not an instant process to incorporate a new pitch and gain confidence in it, but this was kind of a slow start.

-Until Kris Bryant goes nuclear, there’s always going to be a fear that he’s not healthy. And just like when he came back last year, it feels like he can’t deal with any velocity. It says he’s hitting .300 on fastballs this year, but he’s whiffing at a quarter of the ones he swings at. Could be just a slump.

-Of course, the bullpen remains the main story. It destroyed any hopes on Friday, and made things way more interesting than they had to be on Saturday. I’m not a body-language guy and mostly think it’s bullshit, but I’m guessing a real big reason Carl Edwards Jr. was sent down on Saturday morning was that he was expressly looking helpless on the mound Friday. You can’t look like you’re lost. Crash Davis told you this. “Act cocky, even when you’re getting lit up.” If you don’t look like you think you can get anyone out, then you’re almost certainly not going to.

-On the plus side, Willson Contreras continues to murder the ball and isn’t trying to pull everything. Jason Heyward even came up for air, but I won’t be fooled again. Talk to us in July.

-At least the pen found something on Sunday. Baby steps to the elevator.

-Not gonna worry about Hendricks too much. He’s always been something of a slow starter. Again, the margins of error are so small, and that pitch he threw to Yelich couldn’t have been more inviting if it was wearing a neglige on the way to the plate.

Onwards…

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Brewers: Now Is Not The Time

By Sam Fels 1316 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 1-5   Brewers 6-1

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: WGN Friday, NBCSN Chicago Saturday and Sunday

THE GOOD LAND: Brew Crew Ball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jose Quintana vs. Brandon Woodruff

Cole Hamels vs Corbin Burnes

Kyle Hendricks vs. Zach Davies

Probable Cubs Lineup

1. Ben Zobrist (S) RF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Javier Baez (R) SS
5. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
6. Willson Contreras (R) C
7. Albert Almora (R) CF
9. Jason Heyward (L) RF

 

Probably Brewers Lineup

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) SS
Everything is wrong. Everything is ruined. So why not face the team that’s given your whole front office and fanbase a psychosis when you’re at your absolute lowest? Maybe it’s a weird kind of immersion therapy. Have the booze nearby.
Despite how Cubs fans have acted all winter, the Brewers and Cubs were exactly as good as each other last year. In fact, the Brewers needed a historic finish over the last month to even catch the Cubs, rather than the Cubs “losing” it. But the difference in winter maneuvers is probably what has everyone on edge. The Brew Crew identified a weakness, catcher, and went and got just about the best possible solution to it in Yasmani Grandal (who at the moment has only succeeded in torpedoing my fantasy team, but that won’t last forever). And this wasn’t a bad lineup to begin with.
Of course, the Brewers main weapon is the bullpen. Josh Hader was so bored with just striking out everyone that he spent the first week seeing how long he could get away with throwing just fastballs. He threw his first breaking ball on Wednesday, after something like 48 straight fastballs. He’s striking out two per inning anyway. The Brewers won’t miss Cory Knebel when they just make Hader throw with his right hand on his off-days. Alex Wilson and Matt Albers are also carrying ridiculous strikeout rates. Jacob Barnes has been the only flashpoint so far out of there, and you can bet they’ll find more. It’s what they do. Knebel will be a miss, but if they’re the ones who end up with Craig Kimbrel, the self-defenestration count around town is going to quadruple.
I still don’t buy the Brewers rotation, but I suppose when it doesn’t have to do much more than four or five innings, you don’t have to buy it. Jimmy Nelson has yet to return and he’s something of the trump card. If he’s what he was, that gives them at least a genuine #2 starter in this league and a day off from throwing four innings for the pen. Brandon Woodruff impressed out of the pen last year, but he and Peralta’s record suggest they walk too many guys to ever be dominant. You’ll never convince me Jhoulys Chacin isn’t Jhoulys Chacin, and Zach Davies’s Kyle Hendricks impression has only ever looked good against the Cubs. The Brewers do the best they can to take their rotation out of the equation, but it has to sting at some point. At least that’s the hope.
None of this matters if Christian Yelich continues to be a Lantern. A 1.500 OPS so far on the season is pretty much everything you need to know. Mike Moustakas has also hit the ball hard when he’s hit it, and Lorenzo Cain is Lorenzo Cain. Jesus Aguilar has been wielding a pool noodle so far, but I’ll still hide behind the couch every time he’s up. Needles McGee in left also will come up with some annoying, game-changing homer at some point, which he’ll do against the Cubs until he’s 74 (though parts of him will remain in their 20s).
The Cubs are clearly not really equipped to deal with the Brewers at the moment. Jose Quintana has held a voodoo sign over the Brewers since switching sides of town, and he’ll get his first start of the year. Q looked good out of the pen to save Darvish last Saturday, and we’ll see if he means it about incorporating his change far more this season. Maddon’s biggest mistake last year might have been pulling Q in  Game 163 out of fear of a third trip through the lineup, ignoring the facts that Q held down the Brewers all year and he didn’t have a bullpen at that point. Good thing he doesn’t have a pen now and we can see what he’s learned.
The Cubs can claim that things will shake out better with this relief group, but there’s no reason to believe that. Other than Pedro Strop, none of these guys have a track record of sustained success, and it’s here last year where Carl Edwards Jr. broke on Labor Day. You’ll remember the previous inning, Anthony Rizzo had solved Hader for a homer that gave the Cubs the lead and felt like a defining, season-turning moment. Then Edwards turned his curve into performance art and the lead was immediately lost. He’s never recovered, and very well might not ever. There’s nowhere for Maddon to turn until Strop, who has been curiously held for saves that never come. Maybe stop with that?
This being baseball of course, the Cubs could march up there and sweep the Brewers because it’s April and it’s weird and why not? We could use it. Or the Brewers could really rub the Cubs’ nose in it and wouldn’t that make for a comfy home opener the next day? What you got to say then, Theo?
Baseball

Series Preview – Mariners vs. White Sox: Different Sides of the Same Coin

By Adam Hess 1251 0

vs.

RECORDS: Mariners 7-1, White Sox 2-3

DATES AND TIMES: Friday 1:10, Saturday 1:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: NBCSN Chicago Friday, WGN Saturday and Sunday

WHY IS IT ALWAYS RAINING?: Lookout Landing

PROBABLE STARTERS

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Mike Leake vs. Lucas Giolito

Wade LeBlanc vs. Ivan Nova

Probable Mariners Lineup

1. Mallex Smith (L) CF
2. Mitch Haniger (R) RF
3. Domingo Santana (R) LF
4. Jay Bruce (L) 1B
5. Omar Narvaez (L) C
6. Tim Beckham (R) SS
7. Ryon Healy (R) 3B
8. Daniel Vogelbach (L) DH
9. Dee Gordon (L) 2B
Probable White Sox Lineup
1. Leury Garcia (S) CF
2. Yoan Moncada (S) 3B
3. Jose Abreu (R) 1B/DH
4. Yonder Alonso (L) DH/1B
5. Eloy Jimenez (R) LF
6. Daniel Palka (L) RF
7. Tim Anderson (R) SS
8. James McCann (R) C
9. Yolmer Sanchez (S) 2B
For the past severeal years, it had started to seem like in the modern age of baseball, there are only two types of teams: teams that were trying to win, and teams that were trying to lose. The Moneyball era went to such an extreme so quickly that the way teams approached roster construction basically meant either you were going for it or you were intentionally tanking. The White Sox were, for a few years, in the former, constantly trying to win but always failing miserably, until they just decided to embrace what they were and start losing on purpose, but with purpose.
Over the offseason, the Mariners started to look like they were falling into the latter category, as they traded a few of their key players from 2018 away for younger, more controllable players or prospects. They started tearing down what looked like a damn-near elite bullpen by sending Alex Colome to – hey, us!, for Omar Narvaez, who was the Hawks best-hitting catcher from last year but a total butcher behind the plate. Then they traded Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets for top prospect Jared Kelenic.
However, what started to look like a rebuild quickly became more of a re-tool, as they traded Ben Gamel to Milwauke for Domingo Santana, because if there are two things the Brewers definitely needed, it’s left handed hitters and outfielders. That was less a move for the future and more a move to address something they needed now. Then they went out and signed Yusei Kikuchi, who was the best pitcher left in Japan after Shohei Ohtani came stateside, to a really creative contract that will keep him in Seattle for either three, four, or seven years, with both sides having options. Given that Kikuchi is 27, this was another move to build for now.
So in reality, what the Mariners did was build a team that could compete this year, but just for significantly less money. Clearing out the Cano contract may have cost them 2018’s best reliever in baseball, but so far the results have been fine. They took Oakland to task in the opening series in Japan back on March 20-21, and then smacked the shit out of the ball against what’s supposed to be a dominant Red Sox rotation before taking a two-game sweep against the Angels. They weren’t exactly designed to win in the same way as Boston or Houston, but they weren’t designed to lose either.
The thing that is so frustrating about watching how the Mariners went about this rebuild/re-tool movement this offseason was that the White Sox absolutely had the ability to do the same shit. Sure they missed on Machado, but had they been willing to open the checkbook up a bit and made moves like adding Santana and Kikuchi, or even some smaller moves like the Phillies made pre-Bryce Harper, they could’ve won this terrible AL Central. Seriously, looking at that Seattle roster, there’s almost no way they couldn’t win 95 games against this division. Instead, the Sox decided that they wanted to be even cheaper than Seattle and still not be good. Hooray!
For this weekend, at least, we just need to pray their bats cool off a bit and their pitching doesn’t stop what Yoan Moncada is doing. Simple!
Baseball

Turns Out You Can Change Yoan’s Mind

By Sam Fels 1359 0

As usual at this point in the season, not even a week in, it is folly and silly and other words that end in -lly to draw any grand conclusions. Anyone can have a hot week. Still, with as much riding on Yoan Moncada this season, we’ll forgive any Sox fan from having a chuckle at his first few games of 2019 (and basically we mean Fifth Feather, who needs all the chuckles he can get).

Last year did not go as a first full-season should for Yoan or anyone as prized as he is. He struck out a ton, played second base like he was being attacked by bees, and when he did make contact a bit too much of it was on the ground. Thankfully , this year has started in opposition to all of that.

Moncada has been something of a curious study because he clearly has a very good concept of the zone. He walks over 10% of the time. The natural conclusion is that with that kind of eye he should be able to get the bat to the ball whenever he wants. It doesn’t always work that way, and this is where Adam Dunn flashbacks occur for Sox fans. In addition, Moncada let a lot of pitches just go by him in the zone, only swinging at 60% of pitches in the zone (league-average was 66%). He was a bit too choosy, which if you have a Jewish mother like I did you’ve been yelled at about frequently.

That’s gone out the window so far, as Moncada is swinging at just a tick under 70% of the pitches he’s seen in the zone, and making more contact on them (85% this year to 80% last). Which is leading to some pretty hilarious numbers. The one that jumps out at me is that of Moncada’s contact, only 5% of it has been considered soft. Last year that was at 14%, which isn’t awful but clearly cutting that by nearly two-thirds is something to note. That mark is almost a quarter of the league-average.

To boot, Moncada is getting the ball in the air far more so far, at 52.9% of the time (40% last year). Now, Moncada isn’t going to carry a 22% HR/FB ration all year, and if he does it surely means the end of us all. But clearly, the fly ball revolution has now absorbed him into the cause.

As far as approach, a big difference we’ve seen this year so far is that Moncada isn’t helpless against a change-up. Last year, Moncada whiffed on nearly half the swings he took at change-ups, hit .205 and slugged .351. This year, on an admitted limited sample, he’s only swung and missed at 11% of the swings he’s taken, is hitting .500 and slugging 1.000. The obvious conclusion is that Moncada isn’t jumping at the ball the same way and being content to take a fastball out to left. Not rally the case here, as Moncada doesn’t really do much when he hits the opposite way but is murdering the ball when he pulls it. Either way, the Sox will take it.

If exit-velocity is your thing, Moncada’s average has risen from 90.6 MPH to 96.1 this year. Last year, the leading average exit-velocity was 94.7. So yeah, he’s cracking eight different kinds of shit out Rawlingses everywhere. Also, if you’re into this kind of thing, his barrel-percentage is nearly double so far over last year.

Again, anyone can have a hot week. And his .467 BABIP is not anything less than astronomical. But the changes in approach and the volume of contact (loud, not amount) suggests he will always carry a higher BABIP than normal, and that these changes are around for a while.

Baseball

You Get What You Pay For, And Life Is Real High-Priced

By Sam Fels 1495 0

Put a couple beers in a Cubs fan right now, never that hard of a task, and I bet a good portion of them would tell you there’s a level of schadenfreude with the team right now. After they spent the offseason crying poor, the front office pointing fingers every outward but certainly not inward, and everything else, the Cubs are being undone by what they ignored and arrogantly thought would fix itself, the bullpen. And it being this early in the season, and only four games, it hasn’t come anywhere close to derailing the season. You can just see how it might.

At the top, and as I’ve repeated all offseason, you can remake a bullpen on the fly. The Nationals did it just two years ago (with Brandon Kintzler as part of that). The Red Sox simply ignored their bullpen in the postseason last year. There will be a bevy of guys on teams out of it who for no reason whatsoever are throwing 97 with a slider from nowhere that you can have for B-level and C-level prospects. This is probably what the Cubs will do, and most likely they’ll be fine. It just didn’t have to be like this.

I had wondered if Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer knew about the budget Tom Ricketts was going to hand them at the outset of the offseason. But as was pointed out to me on Twitter, the fact that they sent Drew Smyly away to extend Cole Hamels probably indicates that they did. So one has to ask if that really was the right move. Because if the thinking was that the pen as currently constructed was going to just right itself, it makes you think that pitching isn’t just a spotty mark on the record of this regime, but a clear blindspot. Remember, we’re still waiting for the first pitcher Theo has drafted to actually come up for air and do something here. Hendricks and Edwards Jr. are trades, and we’ll get to the latter soon.

Because what did the Cubs have coming out of last year? Pedro Strop, who is wonderful and insane and I love him but also has missed big chunks of time with injury two of the past three years and turns 34 this season. It seems to me that the Cubs want to treat their signing of Brandon Morrow as something other than bad, but it very well may be. Morrow only has one full season of being a dominant reliever and a whole lot of injury problems. He’s far from a sure thing, and yet the Cubs are happy to tell you his absence is the main problem in order to do themselves credit, as well as blaming Joe Maddon for having the temerity to pitch him three days in a row at the end of May. The end of May is when a pitcher should be in peak health. If he can’t do it then, he can’t do it, and hence is not a plus piece to have around.

Carl Edwards Jr. is a basketcase and has never proven to be anything else. Brandon Kintzler has one good season, and his ground-ball rate, his main weapon, has been dropping for three straight years. Randy Rosario doesn’t strike anyone out and was bad last year and can only claim to throw with his left hand. They couldn’t honestly sell Tyler Chatwood as anything other than a lottery ticket bought while drunk and using consecutive numbers.

Perhaps they thought they could count on Steve Cishek. Here’s the problem: the history of relievers who crack 80 appearances over the age of 30 is not really encouraging.

Zach Duke did it three years ago at 33, and the next season saw his K/9 rate drop in half and his FIP double. In 2017  Bryan Shaw reached 79 appearances at 29. The next year his walk-rate doubled. Only Joel Peralta survived that threshold in 2013 at that age and came back fine the next year. Or at least his peripherals did, but his ERA was still over 4.00.

The Cubs front office has been acting like the smartest guys in the room for so long now that perhaps they’ve failed to realize they’re getting passed.

Now you can also throw this at the Ricketts, who even if they took the “Look what you’ve done with our money already” tact can’t then tell the front office to go stuff it with such a clear weakness. But is that $13M net-spend on Hamels worth more than two relievers right now? If the multi-year commitment to Andrew Miller made them nervous because he’s already in decline in skill and physically, that’s cool. Don’t want to blow it all on Zach Britton? Fair, or at least understandable. I wasn’t married to Jesse Chavez. He’s a guy.

But maybe Joakim Soria? Only $7.5M per. Seems a better bet than Brad Brach.

It’s important to reserve judgement until we see what the Cubs do over the next few months. Maybe they hated the reliever market in the winter altogether and didn’t want to force it. Fine. But when they say they have the deepest crop of pitchers waiting in Iowa they’ve ever had, why should anyone take that at face value? Again, this isn’t a front office that’s produced a quality reliever or starter yet (Hector Rondon was their Rule 5 pick, but that just means he didn’t come through the system). The Cubs couldn’t wait to tell every beat writer about their technology and gizmos to measure their pitching in the system. But at this point, Cubs fans are more than excused for not wanting the labor pains, just the baby.

Actually, sounds a little like the Hawks and their blue line, doesn’t it?