Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Reds: Joey’s Not Angry Any More

By Sam Fels 1361 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 24-14   Reds 18-23

GAMETIMES: Tuesday-Thursday 5:40pm

TV: NBCSN Tuesday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

THEY ACTUALLY EAT THAT CHILI: Blog Red Machine

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Tanner Roark

Yu Darvish vs. Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana vs. Luis Castillo

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Jason Heyward – CF

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Willson Contreras – C

Daniel Descalso – 2B

David Bote – 3B

PROBABLE REDS LINEUP

Nick Senzel – CF

Joey Votto – 1B

Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Jesse Winker – LF

Yasiel Puig – RF

Derek Dietrich – 2B

Jose Iglesias – SS

Pitcher

Tucker Barnhardt – C

 

After swatting away their closest competitor over the weekend, the Cubs head to the bouncy castle that The Great American Ballpark is to face the NL Central’s wooden-spooners. But this isn’t the normal Reds team you might be accustomed to, and you might not need to prep for the normal diet of 12-10 games that we got on the reg on the river in the past.

For one, the Reds can’t hit for shit, and the main story is that Joey Votto has been a baseball succubus. It’s almost inexplicable. Votto is hitting .206 with a .293 wOBA and a 79 wRC+. He’s walking less than he ever has and striking out more. More worryingly is his line-drive rates and hard-contact are down as well. He’s actually hitting infield pop-ups, which he literally never did before. Judging by his anemic numbers against change-ups and curves, one might get the impression he’s cheating more and more on fastballs at 35. But he’s not even doing that much with those. He could be carrying an injury, and Reds fans are going to have to hope so because he only has 74 more years left on his contract. Still, this is Joey Votto. He’s only a season removed from a 131 wRC+ and two from a 164. You’re going to have to show us more than just six weeks of bad Votto before we believe Votto is bad now.

It wouldn’t be so glaring if the Reds were getting any help from anywhere else, but only Derek Dietrich and Cubs-murderer Eugenio Suarez have bothered to remember to take a bat with them to the plate. Yasiel Puig, who we were all convinced would show up in the NL Central and torture us for a good few years because of course, has been eaten by the BABIP Dragon and is hitting .226. Jesse Winker has been ok, but only that. They were never getting much offense out of short or catcher, and it’s caught up to them. They’ve gotten prime prospect Nick Senzel into center for now, but he’s still got a huge learning curve to manage. They are decidedly pop-gun.

The Reds would be total shit (and then spread on spaghetti as is their way there) if they’re rotation hadn’t been glittering so far, but lucky for them that part of the machine has kept them within touching distance of .500. Luis Castillo, whom the Cubs get on Thursday, has been everything they could have hoped. When you’re striking out 31% of the hitters you see and getting nearly 60% grounders on the contact you do give up, you’re going to slap some motherfuckers upside the head. So has been the tale. Sonny Gray was perhaps just happy to get out of New York, as in terms of FIP he’s been just as good as Castillo. He’s getting far more grounders than he did in pinstripes, and hasn’t seen every fly ball he gives up land in Vinny from Queens’s beer hey yo. Gray has also gone to a cutter far more often this season with his top class curve. Tyler Mahle doesn’t walk anyone, Tanner Roark does but somehow dances around it, and Anthon DeSclafani is striking everyone out. This is not an easy negotiation.

In the pen, Raisel Iglesias hasn’t been terribly happy with his usage, but is still striking out a ton of hitters though been a bit homer-happy. You’re probably not maximizing Iglesias by not using him in something of a Hader-method as they have before, as he’s been a straight closer so far. Amir Garrett and David Hernandez have been heavy K/heavy walk style as well, but have barely given up anything. The uber-jacked Michael Lorenzen and his tight pants are still here as well. The pitching has saved the Reds and if they ever discover someone else who can actually not pass out at bat they could make a serious move in the division. They’re not ready to contend yet, but you can see where they will be one day soon.

For the Cubs, they’ll hope Anthony Rizzo‘s one-day backiotomy is just that. They’ll try and get Darvish to throw strikes against a team that can’t hit, but that didn’t work last time. Getting though on Gray and Castillo the last two games here is going to be a real trick, but that’s what’s ordered.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cleveland vs. White Sox: A Brief Interlude Of Punchlessness

By Sam Fels 1191 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cleveland 21-18   White Sox 18-21

GAMETIMES: Monday 7:10, Tuesday 1:10

TV: NBCSN Monday, WGN Tuesday

ALL OUR FISH HAVE AIDS: Let’s Go Tribe

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Shane Bieber vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Carlos Carrasco vs. Manny Banuelos

PROBABLE CLEVELAND LINEUP

Francisco Lindor – SS

Jason Kipnis – 2B

Jose Ramirez – 3B

Carlos Santana – 1B

Carlos Gonzalez – DH

Jake Bauers – LF

Tyler Naquin – RF

Roberto Perez – C

Leonys Martin – CF

PROBABLY WHITE SOX LINEUP

Charlie Tilson – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonso – DH

Tim Anderson – SS

Nicky Delmonico – LF

Welington Castillo – C

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Ryan Cordell – RF

 

There’s not much different between these two teams than there was last week when they met for four by the shores of Lake Erie. The Sox went on to win two of three in Canada, while The Tribe lost two of three to Oakland. Cleveland still can’t hit, their rotation is taking on water, and the pen ain’t what it used to be like that old gray mare.

And Cleveland still isn’t getting signs of life where it needs them. While Jordan Luplow and Tyler Naquin have hit of late in limited duty, the team’s engine is still sputtering. Lindor, Ramirez, and Santana have done just north of dick the last two weeks, and pretty much all season. Lindor did manage five hits against the A’s, and they can only hope that it’s the sign for something. That only one of them was for extra-bases is probably flattening that hope, but it has to start somewhere. Ramirez has one homer in May, and this was after MVP-projections for him (I know, he’s knifing my fantasy team at the moment).

This team is going to trail the Twins all season if those three don’t get doing, because Cleveland’s front office has constantly viewed the outfield as basically a grazing pasture and has needed help there since before their World Series appearance. Letting Michael Brantley walk in favor of Carlos Gonzalez was a particularly inspired piece of galaxy brain.

On the mound, the Sox will see the two starters they couldn’t get past last week in the unfortunately named Shane Bieber and then Carrasco. Bieber gave up three over six, and Carrasco basically fustigated them over the only five innings the game would last thanks to the rain. Carrasco has been in some ways their most dominant starter, striking out a third of the hitters he sees while barely walking anyone. But he can’t seem to get any luck, and when that evens out he should have some bonkers numbers on the year if he keeps that K/BB ratio.

For the Pale Hose, Lopez was pretty much Bieber’s equal last week, giving up just three runs over six innings. It was a nice response to getting clubbed by the suddenly molten Red Sox, which happens. Speaking of clubbed, Banuelos takes the mound for his weekly bludgeoning on Tuesday afternoon. You would think it would only be one more start of being turned into oatmeal before Manny is jettisoned from the rotation, though the only help in waiting is one Dylan Cease as the Sox are probably going to be as patient with him as humanly possible.

The Sox get six at home before an ugly looking trip that takes them to Houston and Minnesota, and both of those teams have been treating pitchers like Gallagher and watermelons (too soon?). Best to get your licks in now.

Baseball

Cole Hamels – High Speed Dirt

By Sam Fels 1263 0

After another sterling start from Cole Hamels on Saturday, I thought it might be time to take a deeper dive into what’s made him so good so far this year. A 3.08 ERA with a 3.50 FIP isn’t dominating, but he’s right behind Lester and Quintana in the latter category. And if you were to remove his first start of the year, which really was just one bad inning, his ERA is 2.44 since. He hasn’t given up more than three earned in any start since, and he’s only done that once in the seven starts since that what-have-ya in Texas.

So what’s going on here?

The first thing that jump out about Hamels is the great increase in his ground-ball rate. It’s at 56%, which is 11 points higher than last year and the highest by four points of any mark in his career. It’s the third-highest in baseball among qualified starters. Surely there’s a reason that Hamels has decided to become Derek Lowe? Well for one, when you have the Cubs infield, ground-balls are a good idea (although at second they haven’t really managed to play anyone that much above “twit” level, as Bote has been just a tick below average there). But there’s been a change in approach as well.

The next thing anyone would notice about Hamels’s methods this year is there are a ton more four-seam fastballs. He’s throwing it half the time, up from 45% last year, at the expense of his cutter. BrooksBaseball.net has it at 41%, up from 30% last year. This was something we began to see last year, as upon arrival on the Northside the Cubs got him using his fastball way more, jumping from 29% in July before the trade to 41% and 44% the next two months. So it’s a continuing of that trend. And we did see a surge in grounders when Hamels first arrived, at 55%, but that went away in September last year.

Still, this doesn’t explain it all. Hamels is getting about the same percentage of grounders on that four-seam as he has his whole career. Obviously, throwing it more often means more grounders total (and you’re welcome for that math lesson). But it has to be more than that. And where he’s putting that fastball might be the answer.

Here’s where Hamels has thrown his four-seamer throughout his career:

And here’s what he’s doing this year so far:

So as you can see, he’s gone a bit Lester in that he’s just hammering the outside corner to righties. Which gets balls rolled over, or hitters stretching, and that’s how you get a lot of grounders. That idea has spread to his cutter as well, even though he’s using it less. Here’s where his career usage has gone and where he’s throwing it this year:

He still uses it to get inside on righties, just enough to keep them off the fastball outside, but hasn’t been shy about throwing it outside as he was either.

Perhaps more impressive than the ground-ball rate is that the amount of loud contact Hamels is giving up has fallen off a cliff. He’s only giving up a 16% line-drive rate, which is top-1o in baseball. His hard-contact rate has dropped from 41% last year to a much more manageable 33%, and even most of that hard-contact has still been on the ground.

The question is whether Hamels is benefitting too much from a .234 BABIP, which isn’t going to stick around much. But considering the soft and grounded nature of what he’s surrendering, and the Cubs plus-defense (5th best in ground-ball defensive efficiency), it also might not rise dramatically. The last time Hamels gave up anywhere near this many grounders, 2011 with Philly, he had a .255 BABIP, as Utley, Rollins, and Polanco gobbled everything up back when they were still young.

Stamina will be a question, as he’s 35 now and wasn’t as good in September of last year. And control has been an issue of late. But when you give up soft contact and most of it on the ground, good things tend to happen.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Sox Take 2 of 3 From Blue Jays: The Long Slow Climb Out Of Hell

By Andy Jonathan 1234 0

This is a little more what I expected from this White Sox team: to be competitive against the bottom rung of the AL, and to show a little fight but ultimately get mushed by the top.  This very easily could’ve been a sweep against the light hitting Jays team were it not for 2 bad pitches by Dylan Covey, but boy were those 2 pitches shitty.  The Sox still have a ways to go before I will consider this rebuild on track, but a few more performances like this out of Giolito and I might allow myself to feel hope again.

 

 

YOU GOT A BULLET(S) IN YOUR HEAD

 

-Dylan Covey’s start was…not great.  The problems that plagued him last season (high pitch count, no punchout pitch) were on full display in the first few innings.  He’s a sinkerball pitcher who’s pitches aren’t sinking right now.  They either fly out of the zone, or just sit there belt high, begging to be pummeled into orbit.  That’s exactly what Randal “No Blanket Like A Wet Blanket” Grichuk did in the 1st inning Friday night.  Covey couldn’t get past strike 2 on anyone, and Grichuk made him pay.  Teoscar Hernandez did the same thing the following inning, and that was about it.  If Covey is going to be filling in for Carlos Rodon’s shredded elbow until Sox management decides Dylan Cease has dominated AAA enough to make an appearance at the big league level, then he’s gonna have to figure out how to get that sinker down, otherwise I’m just gonna skip each of his starts.  There’s only so much beer in my fridge, and it can’t handle Covey pitching every five days.

 

-Ivan Nova’s start, however, was pleasant enough.  Basically a repeat of his start against Cleveland, Nova worked both sides of the plate effectively keeping the light hitting Toronto team off balance.  The offense, perhaps worried that he’d melt down like a popsicle in a toddler’s hand, banged out 9 runs of support for him.  Quality starts are nice, more please.

 

-Speaking of the offense, James McCann is now officially a thing.  He went 6 for 9 (nice) in the series, and gunned down Vladdy Jr’s attempted larceny on Saturday.  It actually made me swear out loud when a Danny Jansen foul nailed him right in the McCannonballs (Hat tip to @WriteSox for that one).  It’s getting to the point now where there’s really no excuses to play Wellington Castillo much anymore, not that it’ll stop Renteria from doing so.

 

-Lucas Giolito is making a very strong case to be a large part of this rebuild.  His changeup looks like a completely new pitch, and it’s been there for him even when the fastball hasn’t.  Case in point the first 2 innings today where he couldn’t spot the fastball at all, but the change was still there to get him the strike when he needed it.  His FIP and BABIP are where you’d want them to be (3.45 and .301), so there’s no reason to believe that he can’t keep this up.  That being said, I’d like to see him take another turn at the Red Sox, or the Cubs for that matter as a true test of his stuff.  I’m very optimistic, however.

 

-Yonder Alonso hit a dinger, but he still sucks.

 

-Tim Anderson ALSO smoked a dinger to center field, but it did not lead to a bolt of lightning crashing through the TavaresDome and striking down Randal “Mayonnaise” Grichuk like I had hoped.  Next time.

 

Two games against the Tribe this week, which might also feature the return of ELOY to the lineup.  That would be nice, as I like Charlie Tilson as a 4th outfielder, but his 32 MPH exit velocity is not exactly MLB material.

 

 

Baseball

Neither The Cubs Or Addison Russell Are Equipped For This

By Sam Fels 1816 0

As I’ve said in the past, I don’t know that the easy decision for the Cubs when it comes to Addison Russell–punting him into the nearest trash compactor–was the right one. Nor do I know that this much harder path is the wrong one. Or however you want to lineup those four variables. What seems obvious is that the Cubs and Russell don’t know either, and no one seems to be getting anywhere. And one-half of that equation doesn’t seem interested in finding it anyway.

I still tend to believe Theo Epstein whenever he’s commented on this, but now it’s getting to the point where you wonder if he just doesn’t know what to do or he is outright lying. All of this is spurred again when last night Russell in an interview with the Sun-Times basically expressed that he didn’t think anyone should boo him at Wrigley, and that everyone should prioritize his baseball skills (not that great at this level) and fandom over him being essentially the definition of a scumbag.

The levels of incompetence here staggering, and I’ll try and filter through them if it’s even possible. And Russell trying to walk it back today was clearly after someone in the Cubs’ front office got to him, but it’s too late for that. First, Russell has yet to show any contrition for what he’s done, and his mealy-mouthed and indifferent press conference in Arizona showed that before this. To have no concept of why any fans would be glaring at your return with definite side-eye at best is to be bewilderingly ignorant. It certainly doesn’t express he has any understanding of what he’s done or why he was suspended or why any of this has happened.

And even if Russell is all that, and I tend to believe that he is, then this “training” or “therapy” is meant to change that. Well, it’s been over six months since Russell was suspended, and it’s clear to us that there’s little progress has been made. That doesn’t mean I think Russell’s “process” should be public. I don’t need to know when and where he’s going and who he’s going to see, and that would be illegal anyway. If it’s happening at all. The Cubs have told us that there are steps and a long road to go, and they can’t really define that, but surely this is part of that?

And beyond all that, before Russell is allowed to be interviewed, you’d have to think there would be some bullet points the Cubs themselves would go through with him if only to cover their ass. One of them, and probably at the top, would be not criticizing the fans and at least pretending to understand what they might do. The Cubs got there, but only after Russell had defecated out of his mouth first. It’s someone’s job to know that, but here we have another organization confusing their popularity with their public relations and media skills.

Theo may say as right of things as he can, and even if he is all the way into this and not just hoping he can skate through until Russell is either traded or the Cubs are winning in the fall and everyone’s distracted, he’s not directing anyone else in the organization to help the cause. Julian Green wheel-posed his head into his own ass trying to silence a FanGraphs writer. Russell hasn’t had anything to say that seems like it’s moving forward. Someone let him walk into an interview to spew garbage that has to be walked back. The team should have had a plan too. Doesn’t appear that they did.

Again, our feelings are lower on the totem pole. Melisa and her child are most important, and the Cubs have stressed that. So whether Russell placates the fans is down the list. But his clear bewilderment at being booed shows he’s not really invested in this, or at least gives off that impression. If progress for him was the whole point, where is it?

Whether you believe Theo’s heart is in the right place or not, it’s hard to see where the Cubs have gotten a good deal of this right. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try, because simply admitting they can’t forge a new path on domestic abusers and just letting Russell do whatever isn’t an answer either. But it feels like the only bar the Cubs are asking Russell to clear is that he not punch anyone else.

The most likely answer is that the Cubs did mean well when they tried all this, but we’re unequipped to follow that road. And they were that way partially because they’re dealing with a rock-headed dickbrain who can’t recognize what he’s done, and probably just as bad doesn’t really want to. He just wants to tick the boxes to not deal with it anymore and go back to playing baseball and being a dipshit in peace. And it’s hard to see a path where this gets any better, so maybe it’s time to just say goodbye?

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Brewers vs. Cubs: Form Is Temporary, Class In Permanent

By Sam Fels 1353 0

vs.

RECORDS: Brewers 23-16   Cubs 22-13

GAMETIMES: Friday and Saturday 1:20, Sunday 6:05

TV: NBCSN Friday, ABC Saturday, ESPN Sunday

YA HEY DERE: Brew Crew Ball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Gio Gonzalez vs. Jose Quintana

Zach Davies vs. Cole Hamels

Jhoulys Chacin vs. Jon Lester

PROBABLE BREWERS LINEUP

Lorenzo Cain – CF

Christian Yelich – RF

Ryan Braun – LF

Yasmani Grandal – C

Jesus Aguilar – 1B

Mike Moustakas – 3B

Hernan Perez – 2B

Orlando Arcia – SS

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Kris Bryant – LF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

David Bote – 3B

Jason Heyward – RF

Addison Russell – 2B

 

When these two last met, Miller Park was still in the glow of last year’s conquering of the noisy neighbors to the south, the Cubs rotation and bullpen were a mess, and to the more unhinged portion of each fanbase, it felt like a real sea change in the power structure of the NL Central. Of course, pretty much since then the Cubs have been the best team in baseball, the rotation among the best, the pen has straightened out, and the Brewers can’t get an out from a starter at all. And as has been the normal course in recent years, the North looks up to the South. As it should be, really.

The Brewers muddled along through April, with just a 14-13 record which allowed the Cubs back into and then through it. They’ve been better since the calendar flipped, going 6-2 in May to get past the Cardinals and be the stalkers to the Cubs’ pace, and those six are all in a row. And much like the Cubs, the schedule didn’t hurt, as May kicked off with the Mets who can’t stop being the Mets, and the Nationals who can’t seem to get right either. So yeah, it all sets up with either team having the possibility of being in first when Monday rolls around, or even tied. These games are just going to have a little extra spice all season.

If you think you know the story with the Brewers, it’s because you do. Pretty decent offense, but not other-worldly, a rotation that makes Baby Jesus cry, and the pen pulling Houdini acts to bail out the former. Christian Yelich hasn’t dropped off from last year, at least he hasn’t at home. He’s putting up a 300 wRC+ at Miller Park, which should be illegal, and a .630 wOBA, but away from Wisconsin he’s been just average. This is probably just a quirk and both will straighten out soon enough, but for now it’s something to hang on to.

He’s had to be that good, because the rest of the crew isn’t coming with him as much as they did last year. Lorenzo Cain has been glove-only pretty much all season. It took Grandal forever to get going. and he’s hit .151 over the last two weeks. Jesus Aguilar and Travis Shaw have been nothing short of disasters. Needles McGee (Braun) is just a guy now, but don’t worry, he’ll find a killer homer or two this weekend because that’s just a thing he does here. Eric Thames is starting to gobble into Aguilar’s playing time, and they’ve tried to find more ABs for Ben Gamel to get Yelich more support. It’s not quite the same as last year, at least not yet. Considering the age of Cain and Grandal, this could be a touch more than just a bad month. Also, the Brewers haven’t been able to shift their way out of some pretty porous infield defense as they thought they could.

At least the offense is better off than the rotation, which smells of elderberries at the moment. They’ve used nine different guys to start a game already, though that’s inflated by going to an “opener” at times. Chase Andeson is hurt again, and they’re still waiting on Jimmy Nelson to return from an injury he suffered in 2017. Zach Davies has been really good, but is riding the fortune train again because as good as his control is, he doesn’t get strikeouts or ground-balls but isn’t giving up a ton of hard contact either. Brandon Woodruff is on the other side of the BABIP Dragon as he’s suffering through a .385 BABIP while he’s striking out over 11 per nine. Gio Gonzalez has somehow put two good start together after being called in to rescue this outfit but he’s still Gio Gonzalez. He’s not going to keep his walks under one per nine innings for much longer at 33. Chacin and Peralta have been matches and vodka. When Anderson returns and Nelson finally emerges from the crypt, along with Woodruff getting the rub of the green for once, this unit should be pretty decent. It’s getting there that’s the problem, and when Gonzalez and possibly Davies go boom at the same time, they might just be stuck here.

Modern baseball sure is a thing, because the Brewers have gotten out of it mostly with their pen, which has already used 17 guys! Josh Hader is still an instrument of death, striking out 60% of the hitters he sees. But he’s also been homer-prone, which he wasn’t last year, giving up four already when he gave up only nine last year. Because even if you throw 97 all the time, if you’re only throwing fastballs–which Hader seems to be doing this year–MLB hitters are eventually going to time you up. And unlike last year, there haven’t been as many to join him in the Doomsayers Lounge. Matt Albers and the hoagie he brings to the mound have been very good, but that’s about it. Jeremy Jeffress can’t find the plate. Neither can Jacob Barnes. Junior Guerra has been…fine? Once you survive or duck Hader you can actually get at the pen a bit. That wasn’t the case last year.

Be nice to close out this homestand with some Brewer-kicking. Let’s do that.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Sox Split With Tribe 2-2: Yay?

By Andy Jonathan 1122 0

This series had a little bit of everything, from the Sox offense pounding Twitter Warrior Trevor Bauer, to Lucas Giolito morphing into early 2000’s Johan Santana, to a crushing 9th inning loss, to a soggy, depressing Banuelos-ing.  Despite the Sox merely splitting with Cleveland, there was a whole lot of good that happened in this series and just a little bit of bad.  Lets unpack it all, shall we?

 

TO THE BULLETS!

 

THE GOOD:

-Sox starting pitching reeled off 3 quality starts in a row, which if you’d looked at the Sox collective starting ERA you would have figured was a statistical impossibility.  Chevy Nova, Lucas Giolito and Rey Lopez went back to back to back and brought hope to those of us still paying attention to this season.  Nova was efficient with his stuff on Monday scattering 8 hits through 7 innings with a mere one walk.  Lucas Giolito found his changeup the next night, going 7.1 very strong innings while striking out 8 members of the Tribe.  His fastball was working as well, keeping the Indians flat footed while working both sides of the plate.  Jace Fry did his best to piss it all away, but Alex Colome came in with 2 outs in the 8th to complete the first shutout of the season for the Pale Hose.  The 3rd night featured what I thought was the most encouraging start I’ve seen out of Reynaldo Lopez all year, as he very clearly didn’t have his best stuff but ground his way through 6 innings, only giving up 3 and keeping the Sox in the game.  Last season would’ve seen him have 80 pitches by the 4th inning and another long night from the bullpen, but this time out he made the best use of what he had and kept his head in the game.  We’ve seen what he’s like at his best, and if this is close to his worst I’ll take that all day long.

– The Sox bats came alive in the first game, sending Trevor Bauer to an early exit.  James McCann continues to be a wonderful surpirse on both sides of the plate, and Yoan Moncada broke out of his slump in a big way with 4 RBIs.  Leury Garcia continued his hot ways as well, bringing his average up to almost .300.  The only person not to get into the fun was Jose Abreu, but he made up for it 2 nights later, immolating a Justin Bieber hanger at an estimated 410 feet.

-Alex Colome is the most exciting closer the Sox have had since Bobby Jenks packed up his churros and headed East.  His slider is nasty, and his cut fastball has the type of spin normally associated with celestial bodies.  He’s gonna blow a save eventually, but for now I’m gonna enjoy the ride right up until the Sox trade him to Boston.

THE BAD:

-Jace Fry continues to be a not great professional pitching person.  He tried to give away Lucas Giolito’s gem night 2, and ended up with the loss night 3 since he was the person who put Lindor on base before Kelvin Herrera surrendered the game to Jose Ramierez.  Speaking of Kelvin, he hasn’t looked comfortable on the mound in a few games now making me wonder if his back issue runs a little bit deeper than “just some stiffness.”

-Ricky Renteria’s lineups are turning into performance art, as he’s got Tim “AL Player Of The Month” Anderson batting behind Delmonico, Tilson and Yonder Alonso against right handers.  He’s also got Moncada leading off, which would be a great use of his talents, except for the small fact that he’s second on the team in RBIs, and it’s kind of hard to drive people in when there’s nobody in front of you.  He also got tossed in the 2nd game arguing balls and strikes, then didn’t call for the walk against Ramierez in a 3-1 count which turned into a 2 run bomb.  Not a great look.

-Manny Banuelos has had 2 brutal starts in a row, leading me to believe I may have been mistaken when I declared him worthy of a starting rotation spot.  That being said, I love yelling his last name when he strikes people out and would love to turn that into a drinking game if he can turn it around.

-Yonder Alonso still sucks.

-Carlos Rodon needs TJ surgery, so naturally the Sox went out and found the best available person to replace him.  LOL just fucking kidding they signed Ross Detwiler to a minor league contract.  I’m sure the bullpen catcher is thrilled for the added job security.

 

Next up brings the spawn of Vlad the Destroyer and his Blue Jay brethren.  Vladdy Jr is currently sitting below the Mendoza line, but one look at Jace Fry and he’ll be hitting .329 in no time.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Three Of Four From Marlins: Fish In A Barrel

By Sam Fels 1364 0

Game 1 Box Score: Marlins 6, Cubs 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 5, Marlins 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 3, Marlins 2 (11)

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 4, Marlins 1

If I were truly miserable and wanting to pawn that off on the rest of the world to dissipate my pain, I would complain about the Cubs not sweeping this sad sack outfit. But hey, they’ve gone 6-1 against this excuse to siphon public funds, and after sweeping the Cardinals you’re probably allowed one hiccup. 6-1 on the homestand will definitely play. Let’s wrap it up.

The Two Obs

-There is some worry right at the top. Pedro Strop’s injury, which is going to take a few weeks, leaves the Cubs even more shorthanded in the pen. It also leaves them without a for-sure strikeout option. Don’t worry about not having a closer, as the Cubs can finally just match it up in the late innings which they should have been doing anyway. But unless Carl Edwards Jr. finds it, there is no one out of the pen who can get through an inning without any contact. The Cubs have survived the past two games, and a big thank you to Mike Montgomery, but this is a AAA lineup they were facing at best. There are much bigger challenges and outs to get coming, and the Cubs have no sure thing to get them right now. And the answers to those are probably as far away as Strop’s recovery. Teams don’t make trades in May, but the Cubs might have to find a way.

-Secondly, this is Strop’s second hammy injury in two seasons, and you have to be a touch worried this is just going to be a thing that keeps happening. And he’s as close to indispensable as they have.

-Anyway, good thing Kris Bryant has gone plaid lately, because some of the other pistons in the offensive engine have gone…well, whatever pistons go that’s bad. I’m not a car guy. Bote is hitting .196 the last two weeks. Schwarber has one extra-base hit in a week. Heyward is 2-for-his-last-24. But hey, this is how it’s supposed to go. One part goes down, the other goes up. Hey, that’s kind of like pistons!

-They’re going to have to lower beer prices at Wrigley when Yu Darvish pitches. I can’t afford to drink at that pace. It’s the same thing we’ve talked about before, where he’s trying to be too perfect and is afraid of any contact on his pitches. He had a plethora of hitters down 0-2 or 1-2 but wouldn’t come anywhere near the plate. This isn’t about injury. Darvish has come back from a long absence before. It’s not about ability, because he’s never been this wild before. It’s in his head. But they’re still winning his starts, and winning around them, and have bought him time to figure it out. The Cubs haven’t needed him yet. They will though.

-But Montgomery gives them some options. So does Chatwood. They may have to keep one always in reserve to piggyback on Darvish. But this would be the way to mask your holes in the pen, wouldn’t it? Just have Chatwood or Monty throw a couple or three innings and keeping everyone else to a couple innings a week? That’s a solution. It’s worth trying I think.

-The Brewers have moved into second place. They move in here tomorrow. Maybe time to stamp some authority on this bitch.

 

Baseball

Do We Believe In James McCann?

By Sam Fels 1509 0

I mean he exists. He’s real. So you should believe in that.

In something of a surprise, through the season’s first six weeks two of the three best catchers in baseball, in terms of fWAR, reside in the Chicago. Willson Contreras being the best is only a small shock, because he’s flashed this kind of thing before, if only for a month or two in 2017. Certainly after last year’s before-spinach-Popeye act didn’t portend to dominance this year, but that’s what we’ve gotten.

On the Southside is the real surprise. James McCann has put up 1.1 WAR in just 84 plate-appearances, which puts him behind only Contreras and J.T. Realmuto among major-league catchers. McCann 169 wRC+, which only trails Contreras. His .420 wOBA is also second to Contreras. So yeah, basically McCann has been an instrument of doom for the season’s first month-plus.

Anyone can have a month or six weeks, you’ll say. And that’s true, and we could while away the rest of the afternoon listing off various tomato cans and shaved apes that put up a hot month. Especially at catcher, where being a shaved ape used to be something of a job requirement. So is there anything real about McCann’s start?

More than just luck, it would seem. Clearly, McCann’s .444 BABIP would cause him to be placed right at the top of a lot of people’s “Get Outta My League Leaders!” list. That’s not sustainable.

That doesn’t mean that McCann is going to see a stomach-heaving fall. Because he’s hitting the ball really hard.

If you go by Statcast, and that’s the trend these days, McCann’s average exit-velocity is 90.8 MPH. That’s three miles per hour higher than he managed last year, or ever. It’s not near the hardest around, but it is a big improvement. His hard-contact rate, if you want to go by that, is over 40%. Statcast has this neat thing called expected-slugging and expected-weighted on-base, which basically takes your statcast data and tells you what you should be getting based on every other ball hit at those velocities and angles. McCann’s expected slugging is .501 so far and and his expected wOBA is .424. He’s dwarfing both those figures at the moment, but even if he were to sink back to what he “should” be producing, you’d take that quick enough to leave a cloud outline of yourself.

There’s clearly been a change in approach as well. McCann has dropped both the percentage of pitches he swings at outside the zone and increased the amount of pitches in the zone he offers at 4-5% each. Which has led him to hitting the ball harder, squaring it up more often, and not getting fooled as much. It’s also led to more fastballs in the zone, which he’s turning into paste at the clip of .458 and a .667 slugging.

Another big area of improvement for McCann is his production when seeing sliders. For his career he’d only hit .212 against them, but this year is hitting .350. That’s encouraging, because given what he’s done against fastballs, he’s going to see more and more of them along with curves (which he’s also hitting .333 against). The big change is that he’s getting sliders in the air far more often, about 15% more, than he did before.

The other thing about McCann’s production is it might not matter. Zack Collins is currently tearing AAA to shreds, and could be up later this season. But McCann could either act as a platoon partner for Collins’s introduction, or a trade-chip to bring something back more long-term. Either would be fine with the Sox.

We’re not at the point where you should buy McCann stock. But maybe on the watch-list.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Cleveland: Out For My Own, Out To Be Free

By Sam Fels 1188 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 14-18   Cleveland 18-14

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday 5:10

TV: NBCSN Monday-Wednesday 

THEY’RE STILL SHITTY: Let’s Go Tribe

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Ivan Nova vs. Trevor Bauer

Lucas Giolito vs. Jefry Rodriguez

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Shane Bieber

WHITE SOX PROBABLE LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonso – DH

James McCann – C

Nicky Delmonico – LF

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Charlie Tilson – RF

CLEVELAND PROBABLE LINEUP

Francisco Lindor – SS

Jason Kipnis – 2B

Jose Ramirez – 3B

Carlos Santana – 1B

Carlos Gonzalez – LF

Jake Bauers – DH

Jordan Luplow – CF

Tyler Naquin – RF

Roberto Perez – C

 

After two consecutive self-immolations against the Carmines, along with three straight losses after a pretty satisfying walk-off win against the title-holders, the White Sox escape town and head to the familiar environs of The Jake. There they’ll find a Cleveland team that is no longer on the AL Central throne as had been custom, and one that has a few too many guys in the infirmary.

The big issues for the Tribe is that two-fifths of their rotation (three if you count Danny Salazar, but that’s iffy) is on the DL and not for a short time either. Mike Clevinger is out until at least June with a back-iotomy, and Cory Kluber has forearm-knack after taking a liner off of it. He’s out at least a month, and could be longer. That has slotted Jefry Rodriguez and Cody Anderson into the rotation, which is clearly a downgrade.

Sadly, the rotation is still being held together somewhat by professional butthead Trevor Bauer, though he is riding the good side of the BABIP Dragon and any market correction on that .221 mark could be violent. He’s giving up line-drives far more than he did last year, and you know about the Cleveland outfield defense. Carlos Carrasco is on the other side of the coin, seeing a 5.00+ ERA even though he’s striking out over 12 hitters per nine innings while walking less than two. You could easily argue that both of their market corrections will even out.

They’ve needed everything they can get out of the starters, because the offense has not clicked into gear at all. In fact, it’s shambolic. Jose Ramirez is hitting .200. Lindor is hitting .229. Jason Kipnis has a 24 wRC+, and he’s been forced into the lineup. Only Carlos Santana is going up to the plate with something other than a side of beef. And with the power show the Twins are putting up, Cleveland is not going anywhere if Lindor and Ramirez at least don’t get back to their MVP-form of yesteryear and probably get some help.

It’s not the funk out of the pen these days either as it used to be. Closer Brad Hand (and his rad band) has been excellent, but beyond that it’s been iffy, though of late old war horses Tyler Clippard and Oliver Perez, along with Adam Cimber, have straightened that out.

The Sox will try and relocate their offense, which produced four runs over the last three games against the BoSox. Hey, sometimes Chris Sale will do that to you but you shouldn’t be getting it up your giggy by Rick Porcello. Ivan Nova against this lineup is probably the definition of a taffy pull, but if he’s going to get right against anyone this would seem to be the time. And hey, two weeks against the Erie Warriors and Blue Jays is better than the Astros and Twins, which await after this.