Game #53 Preview Suite
Notes: Having played last night this is our best guess. We know Delia will start. Perlini could slot in for Kunitz or Hayden, and Koekkoek could come in for Dahlstrom or Forsling, but after Forsling notched a couple assists that’s unlikely…Kane now has 46 points in his last 26 games…Saad has five goals in his last five games…Once again that Saad-Kampf combo ran over whatever was in front of it, they may have stumbled on something here…
Notes: The Neiderreiter trade made no sense. Parise and Coyle had dovetailed nicely, and Coyle finally seemed to be settling at center. Now he’s back to a wing and Parise and Rask have combined for exactly dick…Staal has seven points in his last four games…Coyle at least has put up four points in his last three games, but they may have broken this toy…Dubnyk started last night in Dallas so clearly they thought that was the harder game, and the Hawks catch a break with Stalock…
Game #53 Preview Suite
This was a bizarre game and I am still not sure I fully understand what happened. Let’s attempt to parse through it together, shall we? The Bullets:
– The first period started out making this one feel like it was set to be a big time ass whipping by the Sabres. They ended up closing the period with an almost 60% CF and just watching it go down was painful. The Sabres aren’t great, but are definitely better than the Hawks, and it seemed like they were ready to flex on them. Then Gustav Forsling made a great play – broke clocks are bound to be right at least once a day – to feed Drake Caggiula in front of the net all alone, and the Hawks had a 1-0 lead. And from there, it just felt a bit like the Sabres started chasing a game they were controlling. It wasn’t really the result of anything the Hawks did, which is what made it feel so weird.
– Let’s stay on Forsling for a second. I wrote a few weeks ago that as much as I wanted to hold out hope on him, it wasn’t possible anymore. But the play he made to set up Caggiula was another sign that there is maybe a good hockey player in there that is just being suppressed. It’s like Get Out – the good hockey player is in the Sunken Place. The problem is, flashes like that are only worth so much. Later in the game he blew a defensive assignment that resulted in a flurry of chances for the Sabres. Part of that is out of his control – Sam pointed on Twitter how in this system that CCYP is running, any blown assignment is a disaster regardless of who’s there to try and help. But blowing the assignment was terrible. He’s still young, so maybe he can take a giant leap forward next year, but this is probably what he is.
– Cam Ward was good tonight. It was another strange thing to behold. He made a ton of saves he shouldn’t have and none of the three Sabres goals were on him. Hopefully he waives that NTC and they can get someone to take him.
– Patrick Kane is still really good. Brandon Saad is still good. They were both excellent tonight. I wish they were playing well for a good team. Hopefully there will be a blue line solution and a Jack Hughes here next year and they can do this again for a good team.
First Screen Viewing
Flames vs. Capitals – 6pm
Though the Caps haven’t been able to tie their skates correctly, including giving up 30 goals in their last five games (all losses), they’re still hanging around the top of the Metro. The NHL, where it’s really hard to fuck up too badly. The Flames have pulled away in the Pacific, which not many saw coming. Given how bad the Caps defense has been of late, this one should have goals and plenty of them.
Second Screen Viewing
Lightning vs. Islanders – 6pm
The Isles, despite losing to the Hawks, are still atop the Metro, and by a clear distance of three points. Given how much the Bolts can get up and go you can easily see Barry Trotz trying to bottle this one up and make it a slog. But hey, if the Isles win the division then they might as well see how far they can go. And the Lightning will be around. First vs. First here.
Other Games
Predators vs. Panthers – 6pm
Senators vs. Penguins – 6pm
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings – 6:30
Knights vs. Hurricanes – 6:30
Wild vs. Stars – 7pm
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 18-24-9 Sabres 25-19-6
PUCK DROP: 6pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
WEARING THE KELSO HELMET: Die By The Blade
The Hawks escape the Polar Vortex, and their bye-week, only to arrive in the constant vortex of misery and ice that is Buffalo, New York. As Harry T. Stone once said, “Why don’t you just sleep in your refrigerator?” They’ll find there a Sabres team still dog-paddling furiously to find the refuge of a playoff spot, but seemingly can’t get any closer after their one hot-streak of the season.
The Sabres seem to suffer from what’s been going around with a lot of teams on either side of the periphery of the playoff cutoff, and that’s they’re one line and then a bunch of understudies and scenery. You’ve seen this in Dallas, Colorado, Vancouver to an extent, Edmonton for like four minutes, Boston, and the like.
Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart (the one good Reinhart) form a deadly unit. Skinner is on his way to his first 40-goal season, Eichel is averaging a point-per-game for the first time. They’ve kept the Sabres in most games every night, and they had one streak where they found a way to win every game they were in. Which is the only reason they have any hope of a playoff spot now. Throw in competent goaltending in spots from either Carter Hutton or Linus Ullmark, and you get a team that’s slightly above an also-ran but not nearly ready for primetime either.
Because there’s isn’t anything behind that line. Casey Mittelstadt will be a fine player one day, but is learning the ropes. Kyle Okposo died of dysentery. Jason Pominville is three days older than water. Evan Rodrigues helps prove the theory that if you wore a letter for your college team, you suck. There’s just no secondary scoring here.
Perhaps one day Rasmus Dahlin will chip in big-time with that, but as promising as he is asking him to do it at 18 from the blue line is a bit much. Rasmus The Lesser (Ristolainen) has always been a fraud and maybe now they’re even realizing it in Buffalo. The rest of the defense is basically plugs like Zach Bogosian or Marco Scandella, or players who just never got there like Nathan Beaulieu and Jake McCabe. Again, there’s a top tier base here in Dahlin, the Sabres just need to fill in the rest behind. Or wait until their other prospects do so. It’s a project.
For the Hawks, they’ll start the post All-Star break “push” with a weird road-trip that goes east-to-west. with tomorrow night in Minnehaha to face the equally confounding Wild before decamping for Edmonton to face the always hilarious Oilers. Maybe the schedule makers just wanted the Hawks to see the three places consistently colder than Chicago for perspective.
Cam Ward will get the start, with Collin Delia getting the nod for what is the more “important”divisional game in the Hawks’ heads only. In theory, you might have to haul down the Wild to get into the playoffs, so if the Hawks do rip off 15 in a row the two points tomorrow will matter more. Or something. I just work here, ok?
As for other lineup changes, I would imagine that Carl Dahlstrom comes in for the bewilderingly-demoted Jokiharju, though Forsling was activated and could be chosen to waste all of our time again. Connor Murphy will probably stare quizzically at Slater Koekkoek all night, while the revival act of Marlboro 72 continues to not sell out theaters nationwide. Boy, this is fun. Whatever two of Perlini, Kunitz, and Hayden floats your boat will play. No, it does not matter.
The Hawks are back. And there was must rejoicing.
Game #52 Preview Suite
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Rasmus Dahlin is ahead of his class of rookie defensemen. That should happen when you’re the #1 pick overall, and you’ve been touted as a generational talent since basically your balls dropped. It’s especially so when it’s something of a weak class of weak, neophyte d-men, with only Miro Heiskanen in Dallas, and maybe Rasmus Andersson in Calgary looking like they may be long-term, enjoyable playthings (and if you squint, Henri Jokiharju. Though you’ll have to squint a fuck of a lot harder now to see him in Winnebago County). Still, the Sabres couldn’t ask much more of Dahlin so far.
He’s put up just about a point every other game, That might not sound like much, but there have only been four players to have completed an NHL season on the blue line at the tender age of 18. They are Aaron Ekblad, Zach Bogosian (Dahlin’s partner), Jakob Chychrun, and Dahlin (40 games minimum). Dahlin sure looks like he’s going to get past Ekblad’s 39 points at 18, though it should be noted that it’s a higher scoring environment and Ekblad isn’t really supposed to be the fireworks factory that Dahlin projects to be. Still, better than a point every two games would make him the first to do it at this age since his coach Phil Housley managed it in 1983 (EIGHTY-THREE). Boy, the Sabres sure have surrounded him with people who have shared experience, huh?
Hell, to make it more impressive, only 10 players since 1980 have managed better than 40 points from the back at even 19. Zach Werenski, Mikhail Sergachev, and Cam Fowler are recent names to have done it, but there have only been 39 players that young to manage a half-season or more in the NHL in the past 20 years at all.
Which makes you wonder how one Adam Boqvist is going to fare when he comes up for air next year. Because he doesn’t have Dahlin’s size, but Dahlin has his skating ability. We just saw Henri Jokiharju get sent down because he couldn’t deal with the physicality of the league, or at least that’s what the Hawks are claiming. The challenge for Boqvist at 5-8 or whatever he actually may be, is clear. To expect first-pairing production for him is…well, it’ll be a hurdle, that’s for sure.
Dahlin’s relative metrics aren’t as impressive, as he’s adhered pretty close to the team rate on most counts, and lags behind Jokharju and Ozhiganov in Toronto among his class in terms of relative-Corsi and scoring-chances. And the Sabres are pretty much the same possession team the Hawks are, and pretty paltry when it comes to their share of scoring-chances. Still, to ask someone who is years away from drinking legally (of course, this is Buffalo, and we know how young people there tend to find a way) to rise above what his teammates are doing consistently.
The key to Dahlin is the eye-test of course, where his skating will immediately jump out at you. He still has that young d-man problem of trying to do too much and skating himself into blind alleys, but once that gets sorted you’ll probably have one of the most effective puck-movers in the game. The kid certainly doesn’t lack for confidence.
Which puts the Sabres in the catbird’s seat. Jack Eichel starts making his real money next year, but the Sabres don’t really have anyone else to re-sign, depending on your opinion of Zemgus Girgensons (and you don’t have one). If they could fool someone into taking fellow Rasmus (Ristolainen) away they would have nearly $40 million in space to play with. Sure, Buffalo isn’t exactly a free agent hotbed, but money is green just about anywhere. They’ll want Jeff Skinner to stay, though his likely 40-goal season puts him in $7-8M range. He’s also an asshole, But teams have gotten around that before, and Eichel has never had a winger like him to play with.
#1 d-men are just about the hardest thing to find, an dit’s hard to think of a team that’s gotten a parade without one (though the Capitals spring to mind, and even they had John Carlson putting up #1 points at least). The Sabres look to have that. Now it’s about everything else.
Game #52 Preview Suite
Melissa Burgess has been a longtime contributor to DieByTheBlade.com, a leading Sabres site. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess.
The Sabres had an incredible hot streak in the fall, but have been pretty poor since. What was going so right then that’s going so wrong now?
They did have an incredible hot streak, but it was a lucky one. So many of those wins came by one goal, whether in OT or shootout or regulation – it’s not like they were exactly running away with games. They just happened to find ways to win every night, grabbing the dirty goals, sometimes in the final minutes, and never giving up. So what’s changed? I think they just stopped meshing in that same way and it shows. Production drops off, pairings and lines don’t mesh the same, and all of a sudden, you find yourself out of the playoff picture.
What’s been the review of #1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin?
Dahlin has been doing well so far in his rookie season. I think it’s important always for people to remember that he’s going to make mistakes, as any player is. But for Dahlin, it’s not just what he’s doing this season or what he does next season that matters; he’s hopefully a part of this team long-term and that success matters too. I think he’s a promising young defenseman and I like what I see from him.
Jeff Skinner is pouring in the goals but has yet to sign an extension. What’s the buzz on the chances of his long term stay?
It seems more likely than not that Skinner stays in Buffalo. I mean, when’s the last time you saw him without a smile on his face? In all seriousness, I’ve heard contract talks will start soon and I’m super excited for that. He’s an unreal player and it’s a treat to have him.
Jack Eichel is on his way to blowing past his career high in points. What’s the feeling about him there? Being drafted alongside Connor McDavid doesn’t help, but it doesn’t feel like he’s usually considered in the “next crop” of superstars like McDavid, Matthews, Petterssen, and the like…
I’ve never thought about it like that, but that’s true. You see everyone talking about the others, but not Eichel so much. I think he’s a quiet producer – lots of assists but also lots of moves that maybe seem small and don’t result in points – and that makes him lower on people’s radar. Of course, McDavid has always been “The Next One” and Matthews being in Toronto, there’s a lot of hype there. But I think just the fact that Eichel is that quieter leader sometimes leaves him off people’s radar. I think he’s been a great fit for this team, he seems genuinely invested in the present and the future.
Game #52 Preview Suite
If you didn’t realize this was Rasmus Ristolainen’s sixth season in the NHL, we’d forgive you. The Sabres have been an afterthought for so long now, if you keep up-to-date on their roster besides Jack Eichel and like, two other dudes, you’ll be making statements about yourself you’re not going to want to revisit. And also the noise about Ristolainen has died down now that the Sabres have a real d-man in town.
Because the thing with Rasmus The First is that despite the proclamations and protestations of Sabres fans (and boy are they surprisingly loud), Ristolainen has always blown chunks. While his consistent settling in the 40s for points in a season is fine, his metrics would clear a large room.
In terms of simple possession, he’s always been significantly behind the team rate, and it only gets worse when it comes to scoring chances and high-danger ones at that. Only last year was he above water in Corsi and scoring-chances. Even now, with greater protection provided by Rasmus The Second, or Rasmus The Greater, Risto can’t seem to make it all work.
Sabres fans for years tried to sell everyone on Rasmus The Lesser. First it was because it was so young. Then it was because he was playing on an inept team. Then it was because he was overburdened. He’s out of excuses now. And it would behoove the Sabres to try and cash in on his name this summer to free up some more money to throw at a prize free agent, as they will always have to overpay to get someone to want to be in Buffalo.
At least with the arrival of Rasmus The Greater, we no longer hear the bleating from Sabres Nation about the other one. He’s just scenery now, which is what he’s always been. It’s just that finally, Sabres fans are ready to accept that.
Game #52 Preview Suite
Notes: Ward gets the start tonight, with Delia getting the start tomorrow in Minny. You could argue that the Minny game is the more important, as in the Hawks’ mind the Wild are a team they’re trying to catch. Didn’t say it made much sense…Forsling was activated but wouldn’t appear he would play tonight. You’ll get your Forsling fix soon enough, whether you like it or not…Kampf and Saad have been a great combo when used, and we’d like to see more of it…Dahlstrom has been demoted, we think, but what Murphy is going to do with Koekkoek we have no idea…
Notes: Ullmark has been better of late than Hutton but the latter gets the start…Beaulieu might be a scratch for Pilut with Scandella…Eichel only has one goal in his last nine…Skinner only has one goal in his last five…Okposo can’t throw a grape in the ocean right now…this is one line but it’s a hard line to keep down…
Game #52 Preview Suite
