
Game #54 Preview Suite

Notes: We keep telling you about Kampf and Saad, and they keep crushing it…any chances would see Kunitz slot in for Perlini but that would be pointless…Seabrook and Keith got clocked against the Wild, and Hitchcock isn’t so dinosaur that he won’t recognize what they are and send McDavid at them every chance, so that’ll be fun…Gustafsson and Forsling were actually effective together as a third-pairing, which is what they are…we’re hoping it’s Delia but they could go back to Ward, morning skate was after publish time…

Notes: You can complain about the Hawks wingers, and you should, but good god look at this trash! That’s what plays with McDavid? He should have demanded a trade like four months ago!…Draisaitl has seven points in his last four games…McDavid has 41 points in his last 26 games, only slightly behind the pace Kane has been putting up…Koskinen probably goes tonight as Talbot has been horrible his last couple appearances and Koskinen at least hasn’t turned into putty, and the Oilers will settle for that…they’re already bitching about Manning, which is just delicious…

Game #54 Preview Suite
This week we’re discussing Brent Seabrook’s NMC, Duncan Keith’s NMC, my NMC, your NMC, your cousin’s NMC, everyone’s NMC! Also whether or not this four-game win-streak means anything, and what we’re looking forward to in the remaining season…
By now, if you’re any kind of Hawks observer, you know the big news out of Saturday night had nothing to do with the Hawks’ win in OT over the Wild, which most likely will still be consigned to obscure trivia in a season to nowhere. It was Elliotte Friedman reporting on Hockey Night In Canada that the Hawks had asked Brent Seabrook to waive his no-trade clause, and that Seabrook had declined to do so.
There’s a lot to take out of this, perhaps more than it would be with most players, but I want to start with this: Considering how intelligence-agency tight-lipped the Hawks at least want to be, I don’t think this gets out there unless the Hawks want it to. Friedman might be the best reporter in the sport, and he would have ways around whatever firewalls and roadblocks the Hawks set up, but my spidey-sense tells me that’s not the case (admittedly, I have an overactive spidey-sense. The cost of the medication is overwhelming).
And to do so is certainly meant to poison the water around Seabrook. It’s easy to get mad at Seabrook, and I and everyone else at this blog have been guilty of it at times. His play has dropped off a cliff and then off another cliff, and quite simply it’s not all due to the ravages of time and mileage. We were commenting as early as 2013 that Seabrook looked sluggish and out of shape, and other than his brilliant renaissance in the spring of ’15, that’s been the case. Those preseason stories about “best shape of his life” were clearly meant to counter something. Still, the main complaint about Seabrook isn’t Seabrook himself, it’s his usage, which doesn’t fall on him. And this is probably meant to distract from that.
But let’s be clear. The NMC Seabrook has was earned by being a goddamn stalwart on three Cup teams (even if he was a main culprit for the lack of a fourth in ’14) as well as a organizational foundation. If Seabrook has decided he doesn’t want to either uproot his family from where they’ve been based or spend months away from them as they stay here in Chicago, that’s absolutely his right. The problem for Seabrook is this only ends one way.
While the leaking of his refusal to waive might turn more fans against him, it’s unlikely that Seabrook would ever get booed out of the building or something. This isn’t Canada. The memories are still fresh enough, and I can’t really recall Hawks fans of recent vintage ever singling out a player for ire. The team as a whole at times, sure. But never an individual. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong on Twitter (@FelsGate). He’ll certainly face more scrutiny and questions from the press, but again, this isn’t Montreal and it’ll fade. And it won’t be all that heavy to begin with, even if the local press really has no love for Seabrook (and they don’t). This is another advantage of the Hawks quickly fading into the sporting background if they’re not good, and remember pitchers and catchers report in eight days and both teams in town are at least interesting.
But it will color things to whatever degree, because look at the difference in tone between this report and the one about Duncan Keith. The one about Keith from Pierre LeBrun was full of reverence. They will go to him. They will let him decide. They have no deals or talks in place, but they’ll ask what he wants, and so on. Seabrook it was just simple and landed with a thud. We asked, he refused. A lot less reverence there, it seems.
If the Hawks are getting this out there on purpose, and that’s just a strong hunch but a hunch nonetheless, what they’re telling you is they see the same thing you and I do. Seabrook is no longer a top-six player on a team that hopes to do anything noticeable. And with the arrival of Adam Boqvist next year, the return of Henri Jokiharju either then or later this season, and the hopeful arrival of Ian Mitchell (less likely), the Hawks are facing a numbers-crunch. Throw in the arguable fascination with Erik Gustafsson, and it’s worse. And the Hawks are making it known they kind of don’t want Seabrook around to make the matter harder anymore. The tone at least suggests they’re happy to have Keith around if he wants to stay, but they won’t stand in his way.
Or, it could be the Hawks went around to see if anyone would even consider taking Seabrook off their hands, all they heard was laughter, laughter, and are using this as cover for that. Could be, but either way they’re recognizing that Seabrook isn’t in their long-term plans.
We’ve been over what needs to happen before. But it may be getting more urgent and less cordial now that this is in the bloodstream. Once the Hawks reach the conclusion that Seabrook can’t be in their plans, and it seems they’re there, then they’re going to find a way to get him off the roster. What’s clear now is that Seabrook isn’t going to see the end of this contract, at least not here.
We mentioned telling him what the plans will be for him going forward as a seventh d-man. That’s clearly where the Hawks are, and maybe beyond that. As unsightly as it is, both sides seem to be spiraling themselves to a buyout. Now, a buyout is particularly ugly, because of the way Seabrook’s base salary and signing bonus fluctuate. But basically, the Hawks would be paying Seabrook something for another 10 years on a buyout, and they’d have a significant cap-hit with a buyout until ’23-’24. The cap hits for a buyout until then would be, and deep breath here people, $3.7m-$6.7M-$3.7M-$6.7M-$5.2M. Not pretty.
But the thing is, you’re already committed to that. That’s his cap hit now, so you’re paying it either way. It’s sunk cost. Over the next couple of years you’ll be introducing cheap, and what you hope is game-changing, talent to the blue line in Boqvist, Mitchell, and Beaudin, along with Jokiharju. At this moment, it sure looks like none of them will get any real money until at least 2022, and that’s probably only if Boqvist goes the fuck off. So you could argue it balances out?
And maybe that’s what Seabrook is holding out for, and again, that’s his right. He probably already senses this is all coming to an end here, as sad as that may be. But a buyout lets him choose his options essentially, whether that’s going somewhere else (with or without the fam) or simply retiring. He gets to choose, though his NMC would give him some say, just not total.
Just project this out. Next year, at minimum, with no additions, the Hawks blue line is some combination of HarJu, Boqvist, Murphy, Gustaffsson, and in their dreams Mitchell. Dahlstrom has slipped of late, but has also been better than Seabrook. It’s still likely Keith is here. There’s six, and that’s without any trades or signings this team desperately needs to make instead of signing Panarin in a reunion tour. The Hawks seem to have concluded there’s no room for Seabrook. It won’t be long before Seabrook sees that too.
The Rockford IceHogs, like their parent organization, are currently riding a four-game winning streak. The Blackhawks AHL affiliate put together a pair of victories over the weekend; the current streak is the longest of the 2018-19 campaign for the Hogs.
Following Saturday’s overtime win in Milwaukee, Rockford has six straight games at the BMO Harris Bank Center over the next two weeks. The IceHogs have been much better in their own building this season, with a .568 home points percentage versus a .481 mark on the road. If there is an opportune time to make a push up the Central Division standings, it is now.
At press time, Rockford (21-19-3-5) is in seventh place in the division standings with a .521 points percentage. The Hogs sit right behind San Antonio (.522) and are withing striking distance of Texas and Milwaukee, who occupies the fourth playoff spot in the Central.
On Tuesday, forward Brett Welychka was recalled from the Indy Fuel. Welychka, whose last game in Rockford was November 20, skated for the Hogs in Milwaukee Saturday night.
A bigger move was make on Wednesday, with defenseman Henri Jokiharju coming to Rockford from the Blackhawks. The 19-year-old rookie was very noticable over the weekend. Jokiharju picked up his first goal twelve minutes into his Hogs debut Friday, then led Rockford with nine shots on goal against the Admirals Saturday.
Jokiharju’s arrival comes at a good time. Joni Tuulola has been out of the lineup the last few weeks. Luc Snuggerud hasn’t played for almost three months. Brandon Davidson last played on January 21. Blake Hillman took a nasty fall into the boards Friday night. The team has indicated that Hillman, who did not skate Saturday, wasn’t seriously hurt.
That’s good news, but the fact is that the blueline is still banged up. Rockford can benefit from a talented puck-mover like Jokiharju as they try and pick up points in the coming weeks.
William Pelletier had goals in both wins this weekend. In 16 games since returning from offseason surgery, the 5’7” forward has four goals and four assists. He’s also a plus-seven in those games.
Terry Broadhurst has a five-game point streak going and chipped in with a pair of helpers in Friday’s win. He also assisted on Pelletier’s goal on Saturday night.
Rookie Lucas Carlsson was paired with Jokiharju on Friday to form what could be an exciting duo in the coming weeks. Carlsson has points in his last four games. In his last four contests, Luke Johnson has four points (2 G, 2 A).
Until the roster is changed through trade or assignments by the Blackhawks, Rockford needs contributions throughout the lineup. The Hogs have managed to put together some solid team efforts in the course of the four-game winning streak.
The IceHogs matched a season high in picking up their third win in a row. A trio of second-period goals paved the way for the victory in this Illinois Lottery Cup tilt.
Chicago’s Daniel Carr got the Wolves on the board 3:13 into the contest with his 22nd goal of the season. That lead survived until the 12:30 mark, when Henri Jokiharju drew cord for his first North American professional goal.
Jordan Schroeder fed Jokiharju for an initial attempt from the right point. That shot did not get through, striking Jacob Nilsson and coming back out to the rookie defenseman. The second offering got by Wolves goalie Oscar Dansk and into the net.
Rockford took a 2-1 advantage on an Alexandre Fortin goal 2:54 into the second period, then doubled that lead a few minutes later. William Pelletier got open in the slot and punched Terry Broadhurst’s centering pass off the right post and into the cage at the 6:19 mark.
In the 12th minute, Viktor Ejdsell got control of a loose puck in the Wolves zone, skated to the slot and sent an attempt off the pads of Dansk. Ejdsell gathered in his own rebound and sent a successful shot past Dansk to make it 4-1 Rockford. At that point, Dansk gave way to backup Zach Fucale.
Chicago got a power play goal from Gage Quinney late in the period, but that was as close as the game got. Fortin added his second goal of the evening with an empty netter in the final minute.
Rockford defenseman Blake Hillman took a head-first spill behind the boards in the first period and was taken from the ice to the locker room. The Hogs played with five defensemen the rest of the way.
For over 40 minutes, the game was a scoreless affair, something that has been typical of the action with Milwaukee this season. The Hogs let a two-goal lead slip away in the third period but regrouped to post a fourth-straight victory.
The first goal of the contest came 2:40 into the third period. Andreas Martinsen hauled in a pass from Darren Raddysh behind the Ads net. Martinsen powered to the front of the net before he lost the handle on the puck. Dylan Sikura was on hand to throw the biscuit past Milwaukee goalie Troy Groesnick for the lead.
Rockford went up 2-0 midway through the final frame on a bit of good fortune. Alexandre Fortin hustled to negate an icing call on the Hogs, then slid the puck behind the Admirals net. Terry Broadhurst sent it to the left circle; Lucas Carlsson got a stick on it before William Pelletier got control. The subsequent backhand centering attempt glanced off of the skate of Milwaukee’s Scott Savage and past Grosenick at 12:18 of the third.
The Ads had plenty of fight left, rallying to tie the game with late goals by Eeli Tolvanen and Yakov Trenin, who redirected a Vince Perdie blast between the pads of Hogs goalie Anton Forsberg with 43 seconds left in regulation.
Rockford had the last say in this one. In Gus Macker Time, Jordan Schroeder brought the puck into the Milwaukee zone and was able to wait for his fellow Hogs to get into position. Schroeder hit Raddysh coming into the right slot. Raddysh lifted a shot over Grosenick’s glove to end the contest in favor of the IceHogs.
The IceHogs have a couple of non-divisional opponents visiting the BMO this week. First up is Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, who comes a-calling on Wednesday night. Tucson arrives for a two-game weekend set Friday and Saturday.
Follow me @JonFromi on twitter for my Hogs-related musings throughout the season.
Ummmm…. ::checks notes:: ….yeaaaahhhh….so this game….to the bullets!
– This game didn’t even become noticeable until mid-way through the second period. It wasn’t until Alex DeBrincat scored that the Hawks seemed to realize they were playing a real live game, but once Top Cat tied it up they actually started keeping the puck in the offensive zone and pressuring the Wild. In truth, Stalock was giving up a lot of rebounds in the middle part of the second period but the Hawks never had a man in the right spot, basically right at the top of the crease where the rebounds were just hanging. However, Cowboy Gustafsson had a slapshot to take the lead late in the period, which was not only exciting just for them having the lead, but it seemed kinda sorta like an offside play had set it up, so Brain Genius Boudreau challenged it. There was nothing even resembling definitive evidence that it was in fact offsides, so the Hawks not only got the goal but also a power play. Nothing came of the man advantage, although DeBrincat was very close to scoring on an open net and just whiffed on it. This was emblematic of the game—the Hawks almost doing something really cool, but really we just chuckled at Bruce Boudreau being stupid and looking like a reddened zit about to pop.
– But Gustafsson had himself a night! Two goals, including the game winner in OT, which was technically a power play goal as well. He had a total of four shots, about 22 minutes TOI, and a 55 CF% despite playing over half the night with Gustav Forsling. There were even moments where he poke checked and made actual defensive plays. There were a few of the usual miscues, but overall he just raised his trade value by about 700%.
– The power play continued to work, despite taking a couple tries to get there. They went 2-for-5 on the man advantage, although the second goal came on a power play in overtime at 4-on-3, so take that with whatever size grain of salt you want. The first power play goal was off a lovely pass from Kane to Toews who was hovering right at the goal mouth and tapped it right into an open net with Stalock going the other way. It was textbook.
– The Hawks only gave up 31 shots tonight, so that’s…an achievement? I’m going to say yes, yes it is. Seeing as they were underwater in possession in both the first and the third periods (43 CF% and an even more dismal 29 CF%, respectively), we’re gonna go with hey that’s neat, they didn’t give up 40 shots.
– Duncan Keith‘s give-a-shit meter was around 1.2 tonight. He had a couple really lazy turnovers and a dumb tripping penalty in the second…none of this is new but it’s still a mix of irritating and depressing. With Seabrook he had a 38 CF%, and only a 42.4 overall. Woof.
Essentially this was an even matchup of two mediocre teams. It was downright boring early—even Perlini’s penalty shot, the one thing that might have been interesting that period, was crappy. Delia made some excellent saves and was certainly better than Stalock, but a .903 SV% isn’t actually impressive in its own right. Whatever, it’s fine, the Hawks got the two points and are somehow managing to claw their way closer to a wild card spot so…we’re into this? Onward and upward.
Photo credit: NHL.com
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 19-24-9 Wild 26-22-3
PUCK DROP: 7pm
TV: NBC (WHAT?!)
GOIN’ CRAZY OUT DERE BY DA LAKE: Zone Coverage MN
Whatever it is the Hawks are now, and it’s certainly been entertaining the past couple weeks if hardly artful, heads into St. Paul this evening to back up the what-have-ya in Buffalo last night. They’ll meet a Wild team that has an even more ridiculous back-to-back, coming home from losing in Dallas last night and only having to traverse essentially the length of the country in a night. Again, artful is not something you’d count on tonight from either side. So what a wonderful piece of programming for NBC to put across from Lakers-Warriors, huh?
Due to last night’s loss, the Wild handed the last automatic playoff spot in the Central back to the Stars, which they’ve been passing back and forth to each other like a handmade bowl, and slipped into the first wildcard spot. They have a three-point clearance on the Canucks, who are the first outside the cutting line. It’s been a roller-coaster season for the Wild, who lost five in a row around Christmas to drop out of the playoffs altogether, then won four of five, and then have gone .500 in the 10 games since. Which is probably exactly what they are.
It’s not what you’d normally expect from a Boudreau-led outfit, as this is the best defensive team in the league in terms of chances and shots they surrender. As always with the Wild, they just don’t have enough front-line talent to bag in the goals. They’re 26th in goals per game, and 25th in shooting-percentage.This is never going to be a team that outshoots its percentage, not until it gets some more firepower. Missing Matt Dumba is huge, both on the power play and at evens, as he gets them up the ice better than anyone and can score from the blue line, which they don’t have anyone else to do.
Not that it seems like new GM Paul Fenton gets it, with the recent bewildering trade of Nino Neiderreiter for Victor Rask. Neiderreiter may not have put up the hard numbers to get anyone tumescent, but he was one of the best possession players in the league for years and had an acute case of snakebite this year. If you’re going to move him, you move him for someone who actually dents twine on occasion. Rask sets off toxic alarms everywhere he goes, and that’s all he does. Other additions around the edges like Pontus Aberg and Brad Hunt don’t really move the needle. The addition of Rask jumbled the lineup as well, moving Charlie Coyle back to a wing when he finally looked somewhat comfortable at center, and bestowing upon Parise the honor of looking at Rask confusedly, trying to figure out what in the actual fuck he’s doing. At least Coyle and Jordan Greenway have meshed nicely with Eric Staal on the top line.
The Hawks will get Alex Stalock tonight, after Dubnyk went last night. The latter really hasn’t been all that good this year, and has benefitted far more from the defensive work of the team in front of him than vice versa. Stalock hasn’t done either.
Speaking of goalies needing help. Collin Delia will get the start, and since his initial splash he’s been just this side of rancid. Sure, he’s getting no help, as the Hawks routinely are giving up shot totals that start with a “4.” But the last time Delia gave up less than three was December 29th, and you can’t hope that Patrick Kane is going to outscore that kind of surrender (even though he has of late). Delia has had a nice long break to reset, not playing since January 20th. This is still an audition for Delia to vault himself onto the roster for sure next year, whether as backup or not, but he’s not going to do that looking behind him four times a game.
Any other changes will be small. Maybe Koekkoek in for Dahlstrom or Forsling, though unlikely. Maybe Perlini in for Kunitz or Hayden, though unlikely.
Given how free-scoring the Hawks have been of late, this is a challenge. The Wild don’t give up much at all, and the Hawks’ two wins over them were basically goalie wins. The Islanders were able to keep the Hawks down in a way that the Caps and Sabres were not, and it’s a similar style. Mikko Koivu has been a particular annoyance to Jonathan Toews for his entire career, and were that to continue that quiets the big gun of the Hawks in Kane. Probably where most lies tonight.
The idea the Hawks can get back into it all is still ridiculous, but if they’re going to go on a run it’s right here. The Wild are nothing impressive, and the Oilers less so. The Canucks again are not anything special, and the Red Wings are worse than the Hawks. The Devils, Senators, and Ducks all appear on the slate in February, as do the Avalanche and Stars, teams the Hawks have handled earlier in the year. If they’re going to do something stupid, it’ll happen now.
Game #53 Preview Suite
We’ve had a good bit of fun at the expense of Bruce Boudreau through the years. It’s probably not fair that some of that is due to him looking like he should be holding the princess hostage while waiting for Mario to come save her. But his constant thrashings-about in the playoffs and in the press have always been good for a chuckle. And while the regular season record is marvelous, the playoff record is clear to see. One conference final appearance. That’s it. A flush of blown 3-2 leads and Game 7 losses at home with Anaheim and Washington. He is the yin and the yang of NHL coaching, all while looking a bit like the Buddha.
And what we used to marvel at with Gabby was that he got the results despite having no structure whatsoever to his team. His teams played harder than anyone in February and March when most teams are running short on fucks to give, and by the time the playoffs came around his players were toast and suddenly opponents cared again and actually had a plan. Boudreau’s “Go Get ‘Em, Scouts!” approach didn’t work once it was spring.
Except that’s not how it works anymore. And the Wild would do well to recognize what they are to create the flexibility they need.
The Wild are the best defensive team in the league. Not in terms of goals allowed, but in terms of chances. They have by far the best expected-goals against per 60, at 1.97. The next best is Boston at 2.04. And this is the second year in a row they’ve been among the best. They give up the second-least amount of shots at even-strength as well, and are in the top-10 in attempts. They don’t create a whole lot, but they shouldn’t have to given they surrender next to nothing.
The thought around the Wild has been they go as far as Devan Dubnyk will take them, but that’s not necessarily true. Dubnyk has the highest expected-save-percentage in the league. Which means as far as starting NHL goalies go, he’s got the easiest job, or at least asked to do the least. And yet his actual save-percentage, at even-strength, hasn’t been anywhere near what it should be. He’s running the third-lowest difference in expected and actual save-percentage in the league, behind Roberto Luongo and Martin Jones. The Panthers haven’t been able to overcome that. The Sharks are so talented they can, but if it goes balls-up in the playoffs, you’ll know why.
The biggest problem for the Wild is that they don’t have enough, or maybe any, genuine top-line talent. Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise these days, Charlie Coyle if you squint…these are all second-line players at best. Eric Staal was a top-line player last year, but is not this year, and is headed for free agency anyway. The Wild don’t have a ton of cap space, and Artemi Panarin isn’t going to go there anywhere due to a lack of beaches.
The Wild have about $15M in space for next year, with only really Staal’s space to fill. They can get more space by trading Dubnyk. It’ll be poison to some ears in Minnehaha to hear that, but if the Wild are going to be this good defensively, and he’s going to drag that far behind what he should be doing, then the Wild can do better than him, and probably at a cheaper rate. At age 33 in May, he’s unlikely to get better. And given how slow NHL GMs are on the uptake, the Wild can free themselves of his $4.3M hit pretty easily, especially to any team that has a playoff flameout due to goaltending (Toronto we’re looking at you, and maybe San Jose as well). Dubnyk still carries a name, as multiple Vezina finalists do.
Maybe the Wild could use that money to upgrade at goalie, never give up a goal, and give themselves more than a pubic hair’s margin at the other end. Maybe it frees them to get a Mark Stone or Matt Duchene, or both, which they need. They can’t rebuild with this roster, and they need to get creative to maximize their shrinking window to get up amongst Winnipeg and Nashville. They’ll have to get creative, and this is one way.
Game #53 Preview Suite
Giles Ferrell covers the Wild for ZoneCoverage.com. He also hosts Giles And The Goalie Podcast. Follow him @GilesFerrell.
Game #53 Preview Suite
Earlier in the year, we remarked how badly the Wild wanted to be considered anyone’s rival. First it was the Hawks, then it was the Jets, but really they’ll settle for anyone bothering to notice them at all in a toddler-stamping-his-feet-while-adults-are-talking fashion. The more we thought about it though, it seems to be a problem for the whole area. It’s pretty sad up there.
Since the Twins won the World Series in 1991, almost solely because they played in a dimly lit garage, the sum total of the Twin Cities sporting accomplishments is: three NFC Championship appearances by the Vikings, all losses (and hilarious ones at that!). The Twins have one ALCS appearance, which is also the only year they’ve won a playoff series since. They lost the North Stars, and the Wild have only been to one conference final when Jacques Lemaire bored everyone to the point they stopped caring if they won or not and just wanted the contest to be over. The Timberwolves have one conference final appearance.
For cities that have all four sports, it’s just about the spottiest record you can imagine. Dallas at least had the Mavs championship win and the Stars. The Rangers got to two World Series. DC would have been close, but then the Caps closed the deal last year. It’s a vast wasteland in a sports sense (and probably many others).
So while the Wild are poking everyone and trying to get their attention, or the Twins are trying to claim how much the White Sox really hate them when most Sox fans forgot they exist, if they ever knew it at all. The Viking can’t stop stepping on their own dick, so maybe it’s just a Minnesota thing. They all prefer watching the Gophers anyway…
Game #53 Preview Suite