It was always going to shake out this way wasn’t it? In a year where the Hawks finally tried to fully supplant Corey Crawford in net with noted asswipe Robin Lehner, or at the very least cover themselves against more Crawford injuries, the Hawks were out of it by the deadline, and decided to get what they could for Lehner after he very publicly started demanding to finally be paid what he’s worth, even as Crawford was outplaying him and had been for a couple of months. He was shipped to Vegas who could no longer rely on Marc-Andre Fleury despite giving him a huge contract after harnessing the Reality Stone in the 2018 post-season, and now with the wacky return to play tournament format, the two teams find themselves squaring off against one another for the fate of all humanity.
Against the Oilers, the Hawks could get away with the fact that their defense skates like slugs fuck and leave a similarly sticky trail of entrail ooze in their wake, as the Oilers gave the Hawks a run for their money in defensive ineptitude. They won’t be so lucky against Vegas (GET IT?), who has one of the top possession defenses in the game, a trend that has continued through the playoffs.
Knights Probable Defensive Pairings
McNabb–Schmidt
Martinez–Theodore
Holden–Whitecloud
In the one game the Hawks looked dominant (Game 1), they were above water in possession. Each game after, and especially Game 4, they were overrun. We can expect this matchup to mimic the latter games, as the Knights are a possession powerhouse.
- Brayden McNabb: 56+%
- Nate Schmidt: 61+%
- Alec Goddamn Martinez: 53%
- Shea Theodore: 62+%
- Nick Holden: 56%
- Zach Whitecloud: 54%
Those are their CF%s at 5v5 against the best three teams in the West. That includes the Colorado Avalanche, who sport probably the deepest forward corps in the league. The top two pairings have the classic free-safety setup, with McNabb covering for Schmidt and Martinez covering for Theodore. Not that it makes much of a difference, as these pairings almost always find themselves away from their own net.
In the three playoff games Vegas has played, only Alec Martinez has taken fewer than half of his faceoffs in the offensive zone (42+%). Literally every other Vegas D-man takes more faceoffs in the oZ than not. That’s fucking breathtaking.
BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! In terms of xGF%, the Knights whip ass too, with only Martinez (48+) and Zach Whitecloud (49+) barely underwater. Schmidt and Theodore, who are two of the best D-men in the league, are each above 60% in the playoffs. Sixty fucking percent! The top two pairings are relentless, and if there’s any weakness in it, it might be Martinez’s speed. But all he’s asked to do is play free safety for Theodore, who can control possession by himself.
Think the Hawks might have an opening against Holden and Whitecloud? WRONG AGAIN ERNIE! Though they’re a routine stay-at-home pairing, and Nick Holden sucks, Whitecloud has introduced himself as someone capable of not entirely filling his diaper against actual offensive threats. I guess if you can get the Toews line out against this pairing, maybe you can made shinola out of shit? But again, given the possession numbers, there’s not much daylight.
Advantage: C’mon
DeBoer could play Theodore and Schmidt all 60 minutes in every single game and they’d still run circles around the Hawks. They’re too fast, too skilled, and too deep. Even their slow guys (Martinez, Holden, McNabb) would be top 4 guys on the Hawks. The Hawks will have to shoot at better than the 14% they’re already shooting at to have any hope, because the Knights defense is going to have the puck for 60% of the fucking game.
We’re out of our element.
Well, the Hawks have a FOR REAL first round opponent after Vegas knocked off the Avs in OT earlier this afternoon for the privilege of now getting to play the lowest remaining seed as the Stanley Cup Playoffs now begin in earnest. There is no schedule set yet for the series, but we’ll try to get in as much preview as possible for the matchup ahead, which really it could not have been any other way now that Robin Lehner is in Vegas. But this isn’t the goalie preview. This is the forwards preview, complete with the first of several hundred thousand Killers references, and Vegas is obviously considerably deeper than the Oilers were with another very matchy-uppy if boring coach in Peter DeBoer (yeah, he’s here now).
We are all vile disgusting creatures who do not, have never, and will never deserve Corey Crawford.
— Matt McClure (@Matt_McClure_) August 8, 2020
– Just put his fucking number in the goddamn rafters already I don’t fucking care. As predicted, the series went through Crow. He stopped 43 of 45, including eight fucking power play shots against the best power play in recent history. He locked everything down from the second period on despite huge pressure, and if not for a plush bounce off the end boards in the second period, he may have only given up one. Don’t forget that Crawford did this coming off a COVID-19 diagnosis.
We do not deserve Corey Crawford. No one does.
– The penalty kill was complete fucking nails tonight. We all thought it was fucked following DeBrincat’s terrible boarding major, but they managed to hold on. For all the shit we’ve given Olli Maatta his entire tenure, he was a big part of that unit (not as big as Keith, Murphy, Kampf, or Carpenter, but still), so good on him. We successfully Motherfucked the Oilers PP tonight, which went 0 for fucking 5.
– Though the Toews line got horsed for most of the night in possession, they scored two of the Hawks’s three goals. Saad’s wraparound off a rebound is exactly the kind of power move we all have gross dreams about. Kubalik’s GWG is worth the $6 million they’ll have to pay him. And both of them came off an initial Toews touch. As this line goes . . .
– Duncan Keith can still fuck. He logged more time than anyone on the pivotal PK and managed to not only get his shots through on net all night but also set up yet another Matthew Highmore goal. To be a fly on the wall when he powerbombs Coach Nathan For You through a table in the middle of his post-playoff-series-win speech.
– If it felt like the Hawks stole one tonight it’s because they did. Only three of them were above water in possession (Dach, Kane, and Maatta[!!!]), even when you adjust for score. The Hawks scored all three goals off bad Edmonton turnovers. They don’t have to be art.
That’s fucking all. Corey Crawford is a legend and they should retire his number. The end.
Avalanche or Knights next. We’ll worry about it in a couple days. For now, enjoy your 2020 Chicago Blackhawks playoff run.
Just like they fucking said.
Booze du Jour: Maker’s and High Life
Line of the Night: “You gotta be hard and sure.” –Eddie O.
vs 
Game Time: 5:45PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, NBCSN, SportsNet, WGN-AM 720
Potemkin City Limits: Copper n Blue, Oilers Nation
It can never be said that the general public wasn’t warned about this. This series was always going to be frustrating, surrealist theater with members of each bench desperately trying to give games away, and by the time the final horn blew on Wednesday night, the Oilers had managed to do so in rather impressive fashion, and now sit on the brink of heading home from the preliminary round of whatever these playoffs are despite having at least one, if not two, of the best players on the planet.
It was sloppy. It was confusing. It was a total fucking rush. Warts and all, the Blackhawks are now a win away from advancing to the next round of the playoffs. I’m way too drunk to taste this chicken, so let’s rush through whatever it was we just saw.
– As the Toews line goes, so go the Hawks. Each of Saad, Toews, and Kubalik ended up with 56+ CF%s at 5v5, and most of their time came against either McDavid or Draisaitl. Both McJesus and Leon the Ladies Man were underwater when up against the Toews line, which echoed the success the Hawks had in Game 1. It’s clear that when this line can possess the puck, the Hawks have a shot.
On top of it all, Jonathan Toews found himself in the right place at the right time twice tonight. Both of his goals were of the tip-in variety. On the first, he pulled a [insert whoever’s a good goal scorer in soccer here, I dunno, what’s that one guy’s name who committed tax fraud or whatever], toeing a loose puck past Koskinen without even knowing it. On the second, he tipped a point shot from our sweet boy CONNOR MURPHY for the game winner. This guy fucks.
And Saad had a game of almost himself, janking two pucks off the post. When this line is on, the Hawks can.
– Now THAT’S the Corey Crawford on whose hill I will die to have his number in the rafters. Despite The Harlem Draisaitls featuring Connor McDavid, Crawford managed to keep this fart-powered jalopy of a defense from completely dicking the outcome, with at least four high-quality saves at crucial junctures. Aside from a minor puck-handling snafu in the second, Crawford was poised and on his game all night. Had this been the Crawford of Games 1 or 2, the Hawks would have given up eight.
– Kirby Dach. It’s amazing what this kid can do when given the chance. He came up with just one “excuse me” primary assist, but he contributed so much more. He had a 54 CF% for one. He managed to enter the zone with speed on a power play in the second period, which is as monumental a feat as discovering extraterrestrial life that shits Cheesy Gordida Crunches. He even played a decent amount on the penalty kill. Whenever he’s on the ice, the Hawks tend to find success, and it’s been a joy watching him grow into what looks to be a legitimate #1 center for the future.
– Although we love the outcome, the process of getting there is untenable. While it’s little surprise that the Hawks managed just one power play goal on six motherfucking attempts, it’s the reason why that continues to annoy.
It’s cool that they managed to wet dream themselves a PP goal on a 5-on-3 with five forwards on the ice. But every other PP opportunity they had fell back into the old Carmelo Kane routine on the right-side boards. On top of that, Coach Nathan For You has continued to place Toews as a rover and Kubalik in the high slot, which is the exact opposite of each player’s strengths.
It’s easy to forget that the Hawks were a top 10 PP team last year. And as we discussed way back then, a lot of that had to do with Toews’s positioning in the high slot. He’s much more apt to tip a rebound or sweep a shot in than to fire one off a hard slapshot from the top circle like Kubalik can do. Had Coach Galaxy Brain had the wherewithal to understand that this was one the few things he’s managed to get right in his tenure, perhaps we don’t have to prolapse our collective anus in anticipation of a late game winner.
Dominik Kubalik ought to be the rover, not Toews.
– When the Blackhawks inevitably refuse to buy out Olli Maatta and point to his two goals in this series as justification, remember that he was not only on the ice for each of the Oilers’s three goals tonight but also a direct contributor to each of them.
On the first, Maatta tried to one-hand a pass up the end boards under pressure, despite knowing that the leading scorer in the entire goddamn motherfucking game was on the ice. While the puck took a funny hop off the end boards and eluded Koekkoek and Carpenter, there’s no reason for it to get to the point where Tyler Ennis (skypoint) can simply shovel a pass through the blue paint to a horny and prepared Draisaitl. But Maatta is too slow to catch up to plays like that. Thus.
On the second goal, Maatta had a front-row seat to watch Draisaitl pot a rebound after a good Crawford save following Highmore’s egregious turnover. If he had a speed greater than dripping pitch, it’s unlikely Draisaitl has a lane to crash as unopposed.
On the third goal, Maatta found himself on the penalty kill, which is a problem per se. Admittedly, it’s hard to blame Maatta for this one, given how fucking good Connor McDavid is. But also, the Hawks need to buy out Olli Maatta this off-season. So there.
–Feather’s guy Slater Koekkoek had himself a good night for Slater Koekkoek. He was a little bit underwater in possession, but he fired home the shot that Highmore tipped for the tying goal. That’s all you can ask.
– Alex Nylander was unnoticeable, which rules for a change.
Jesus Christ. It’s like losing to your virginity to a shy crush. Though McDavid and Draisaitl CAN do it all, if this Crawford shows up again on Friday, it might not fucking matter.
Drink that whiskey. Rock over London. Rock on, Chicago.
Booze du Jour: Firestone Nitro something, then about half a handle of Maker’s
Line of the Night: “He’s not going to beat you from out there.” –Jamal Mayers, describing an instance in which Leon Draisaitl beat Olli Maatta from “out there,” leading to McDavid’s PP goal.
vs 
Game Time: 9:30PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, NBCSN, WGN-AM 720
Supporting Caste: Copper n Blue, Oilers Nation
It was never going to be as straightforward as it felt like it might be during the first 40 minutes of Game 1 on Saturday afternoon. That fact was smashed home with the force of Mjolnir and the speed of Evan from Superbad right away in Game 2, and it left the Hawks chasing a much faster team from Jump St. to leave the series tied going into a PIVOTAL Game 3 late this evening. Because ALL games are pivotal at the moment. It’s immutable hockey law.
So this tournament is underway, and ohhhhhhhhhhh doctor does John have thoughts. Sam, Slak (again), and I are along for the ride. Grab it after the jump.
Look folks, I won’t lie to you: tonight was much more in line with how I expected this series to go than what we saw on Saturday. I had a lot of fun watching the Hawks completely manhandle Connor McDavid on Saturday, and it’s not really a secret that if you can do that you have a better chance of beating this Edmonton outfit. But that was never going to be sustainable, because, well, he’s Connor fucking McDavid. Let’s dig in:
THE BULLETS
– So yeah, Connor fucking McDavid, huh? I mean, there is not much more to be said when the best player in the world scores a goal on you 19 seconds into the game, and another for good measure just four minutes later while making Olli Maatta look like nothing more than a gnat. The Oilers aren’t exactly a one-man show, but fuck if McDavid couldn’t be one himself. I tweeted during the game that I think he is the most dominant athlete in any team sport right now, and I think tonight was a great example of why. He was always going to be the X-factor in this series; you either stop him and win or don’t and lose. Saturday was the former, but like I said above, that isn’t easily replicated. Don’t be surprised if we see more of this from him on Wednesday.
– Adam Boqvist had a really rough night tonight, especially on the defensive end. He will never be a shutdown guy on that side of the ice, so those mistakes are liveable, but we’re gonna need to see more on the offensive side to make up for it. Part of the issue in that regard is the system the coach deploys and the situations in which the coach deploys him, but at the same time he is gonna have to overcome some of that. Granted, he’s still just 19 years old and already playing in the NHL earlier than he anticipated, and probably earlier than the team did as well. There is plenty of room for growth there, but tonight was ugly.
– Sort of building off that last point, I don’t know why Boqvist isn’t running the point on PP1. The lone righty shot on that unit right now is Kirby Dach, and he’s the goalie screen. Otherwise we see Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Domink Kubalik, and Duncan Keith. None of those guys are unqualified for the unit, but when you have four lefties on the ice and you post Kane up on the right boards, it’s not exactly a secret what the plan is for that PP. I think swapping Boqvist onto the point for Keith may sound like small blasphemy, but I think it would open that PP up to many more possibilities. But the coach’s brain is smoother than a lake at midnight, so I am not holding my breath in hopes of seeing this change.
– Not Crawford’s finest night either, lowlighted by his best Mike Smith impression on the Oilers fifth goal that was really the dagger in the game. I still have faith in Crow, but he is going to really need to step his shit up if the Hawks are going to win this series, because he really is their only hope.
– We’re two more losses from my master plan of tanking to get the 12.5% chance at the #1 pick coming to fruition. But we are also just two wins away from getting to watch *real* playoff hockey, which I also welcome. This is officially a win-win situation folks. Until Wednesday.
– Sorry I am not as long-winded with these wraps as Pulega. I just didn’t enjoy this game as much as he did Saturday, for obvious reasons. And also, he is a monster that Fels created in a lab. Fuck that guy. But also, he is cool. Ya know?
vs 
Game Time: 9:30PM CST
TV/Radio: NBCSN, NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Rural Alberta Advantage: Copper n Blue, Oilers Nation
While it was pretty well assumed that the preliminary series between the Oilers and Hawks was going to have all the defensive structure of a Jackson Pollock rough draft, Saturday afternoon’s tilt showed just how silly this whole thing has the potential of getting in a hurry. And fortunately the Hawks came out on top putting the Oilers immediately on their heels in this short 5 game series.
