Football

Raiders Spotlight: The Fraud That Is Jon Gruden

By Sam Fels 2000 0

Maybe I and many others are just biased because of how annoying he was on Monday Night Football on ESPN for so long. We can be a vindictive lot. Still, there really is only one organization that Jon Gruden could have gotten another job for, and that’s one as equally fraudulent as he is. Step up and be counted, Oakland/Vegas Raiders. It truly is a match made in heaven. But then, no one likes cashing in on nostalgia quite like the Raiders, who haven’t won a playoff game in 16 years.

It was that long ago when Gruden made a name for himself, mostly because he scowled on the sidelines, which he most certainly didn’t practice in a mirror in his office every day, that football commentators mistook for CARING SO DAMN MUCH. Sure, he got a label as a quarterback whisperer as he guided Rich Gannon to a 1st-team All-Pro season, which is a harrowing sentence to write. Somehow people forgot that Raiders team then completely screamed at its shoes in AFC Championship game at home to a Ravens team that didn’t have an offense.

Yeah, Gruden’s Raiders got screwed in the tuck-rule game the following season. It certainly broke the whole organization.

Oh right, Gruden won a Super Bowl. When he was hand-delivered to an already-made team with a Hall of Famer at every level on defense. Somehow, Al Davis’s kid didn’t seem to notice that the Buccaneers never won a playoff game with Gruden after that. And here are the QBs he “whispered” to “greatness”: Brad Johnson’s decline, Brian Griese, Chris Simms (whom he had to have, remember), Bruce Gradkowski, and Jeff Garcia. Real murderer’s row there.

But none of this matters to Mark Davis. All that matters is sizzle, even if it’s own feet into the pavement outside the Vegas Strip where his palace to excess and stupidity grows daily. He desperately wanted to move to LA to be a name. That didn’t work. So now it’ll be Vegas, where a lawsuit from a cocktail waitress at The Palms almost certainly awaits.

And that’s really all the Raiders have been, trading on a name made long ago that barely anyone can remember. Even the dude with skulls on his shoulder pads (who’s a grandfather now) is losing feeling in his limbs. They’re not rebelling against anything anymore, other than competence and success. They don’t stand apart from any other team. They don’t even pick fights with the NFL, as that seems to be the Patriots job, and they also win all the time. It must burn that the Pats stole the Raiders’ rep and they didn’t even bother to notice.

So here are the Raiders, squeaking along in a stadium no one wants them and they don’t want to be at with Gruden claiming he’s going to turn Derek Carr into something other than a background-filler. All he had to do was clear out perhaps the most gifted defensive player in the game, much to our delight. And it’ll be Khalil Mack who calmly lays the head of Carr at Gruden’s feet this Sunday to make his point.

But hey, Davis got his headlines, or headline. Gruden got to cash in and show everyone how smart he thinks he is while posturing for sideline cameras. In that sense, everyone wins. Except the Raiders very often.

 

Everything Else

Get Mookie To Change His Sox

By Sam Fels 1666 0

Ok, I apologize for the clickbait headline. That’s not the kind of thing we do here. And really, this is only for my entertainment. I’m really only needling Fifth Feather, and possibly Wes and Hess, the other Sox fans on this blog. McClure gave up feeling long ago. Still, it actually has some legs if you think about it for a second.

Or really, it’s just an extension of another rumor that has been whispered around the kinds of campfires that get people excited (insert Boy Scouts joke here). As we discussed last month, there are people already connecting the dots of J.D. Martinez opting out of the last three years of his contract in Boston and signing with the Sox. It would be out of character for them, and they probably just want to make it look like they tried, much like they did with Manny Machado. But the logic is again sound. So why not just go get the better, younger player who can actually wear a glove and not be a danger to himself?

Here’s the thing. Players of Mookie Betts’s quality don’t just come to be available. At least they shouldn’t. You may argue that Machado or Bryce Harper were available, but they aren’t anywhere close to Mookie. The dude has two 8+-WAR seasons on his resume, including a 10.4 last year when he deservedly got a MVP over Mike Trout. That should like, never happen. No one should ever deservedly win a MVP over Trout, and that includes you this year, Alex Bregman.  You know how many other players have had two 8+-WAR seasons in the past ten years? Trout. That’s it. Even this year, which was considered an “off year” for Mookie, he had a wRC+ of 135 and an OPS of .915.

He also goes into a position the Sox might not have an answer for long term. Luis Robert looks poised to make his home in center sometime next season, but there’s no solution in right. And Betts is probably the best right fielder there is. Certainly among them. He improves a defense that could certainly use it. The Sox had the second-worst production out of right this past season overall, and were 25th in defense there. Betts turns that around upon arrival at O’Hare.

Oh, I know, Martinez would simply cost money, whereas you have to trade for Betts, and then give him even more money. Well, if Martinez was going to opt out of just a shade north of $20M a year, he would do so because he thinks he’s going to get $25M or more per year. So it there that much difference in handing Betts, who again is five years younger and better, $30M or $35M a year? I would argue it isn’t much considering what you’re getting. Then again, it’s not my $10M.

So, the trade for him. I’m not convinced it will be as much as you’d first guess. One, he only has one year of control left, which is an arbitration year that’s going to push toward $30M for the season. Second, the Red Sox have made it clear they’re kind of desperate to move him along, because they’re incredibly stupid or greedy or both. It’s the competition that might drive up the price on him, but again, I can’t see where the original asking price would be astronomical.

It’s nearly impossible to find a comp. Chris Sale was a pitcher, who also had an extremely team-friendly contract already in place. He cost the Carmines two prime prospects going the other way. Sale was also one of the best pitchers in baseball then. Again, players like this just don’t become available. Christian Yelich didn’t become a perennial MVP until after his trade. Would Madrigal and Cease be enough? Madrigal and Dunning? Maybe even Lopez? The thing with the Sox is that they have plenty of options to offer.

And more importantly, the Sox don’t really have to pay anyone important other than Jose Abreu (and I’ll let you debate how important he actually is) for a long time. Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez are already locked in for a bit. Yoan Moncada isn’t even to arbitration yet. Same goes for Giolito. They might even struggle to get back to this year’s $90M payroll. Seriously, there’s plenty of room for a while for Betts.

Did I mention he bats leadoff?

The Sox would clearly have to outbid some teams here. One would think teams with a stocked system would come calling, such as the Padres or Reds or maybe even Braves (and an outfield with him and Acuna…well just fuck off really). Besides we all know he’s going to the Astros anyway. But the thing is…the Sox can do it.

Even if you don’t believe the Twins are a consistent 100-win team from here on out, and I sure don’t, the Sox still have to gain 20-25 more wins to catch them and stay there. Maybe they can get there through growth of their own players, but that’s a two-year process at least, thanks to the injury status of some of their pitchers and development curves of other players. Fucking juice it.

Anyway, I’m sure I’ve ruined some hot stove seasons when this doesn’t happen. Happy to help.

Hockey

The Production of Cats We Like

By Sam Fels 1822 0

The rare genuinely exciting news broke out of Hawks camp this morning, where it was announced that Alex DeBrincat has put pen to paper on a three-year extension, starting next season. The deal will pay $6.4M per season, which is honestly kind of insane.

Top Cat would have had every right to pursue what Kyle Connor, or Patrik Laine were after, or what Mikko Rantanen actually got. Same goes for William Nylander. This could have turned quite ugly next summer, and likely spilled into next fall. Clearly DeBrincat wanted the security of the next three years and the Hawks were equally excited to have this in the bag quickly and efficiently.

There are clearly some interesting quirks to this deal. You can’t help but notice it ends at the same time as Kane’s and Toews’s contracts, which is when the Hawks might be headed for a hard reset anyway. Should they send Kirby Dach back to the WHL, assuming he’s still alive, that would be the end of his entry-level deal as well. Funny enough, that just so happens to be when Duncan Keith’s deal is also up, assuming he makes it all the way through. Strange, no? It’ll also be the first full season after a new CBA, when a tweaked or possibly wholly different system is in place.

Now, there could be some sort of under-the-table agreement that when the Hawks have at least near $27M in cap space freshly available in 2022 thanks to the expiration of contracts to The Main Three, that Top Cat will get a further extension. Or he’s betting on himself to get a really big number. Either way, the Hawks should have the flexibility then to do what they need, assuming they don’t fuck it up be reacquiring…oh I don’t know, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Teuvo Teravainen when they’re old (please reacquire Teuvo).

As we said on the podcast, if the Hawks really do plan on making another run with the old guard still in place, they kind of have to do it during Boqvist’s and Dach’s entry-level deals (assuming those players turn out to be everything they hope). Basically in the next three or four years. Does this deal help them do that? Sure does, but it’s still going to take some work. They currently have $11M in space for next year, and they have two big spots they have to fill. One is goalie, and the other is Dylan Strome’s spot, as the defense is going to be reinforced by kids (you’d hope. Man, a lot of parentheticals today).

I say “spot,” because I’m willing to wager that the Hawks want to see Strome earn it this season. If he were to spit it, they would just let Dach take the #2 center role before ascending to the #1 cheaply and basically tell Strome to do one. If Strome does earn an extension, him and whatever goalie they choose almost certainly eat up most if not all the cap space the Hawks have. Of course, some of that could be alleviated by jettisoning some combination of Saad, Shaw, Smith, or Maatta off the roster either during this season or in the summer. All these guys have something to play for, clearly.

Still, to get Top Cat at that number is a good thing. A very good thing. Keep in mind that even with the juiced scoring last year, there were still only 13 guys to eclipse 40 goals. Top Cat was one of them, and they’re getting him for a touch more than Jake Guentzel. It’s nice work. It also removes that headache discussion all season, which is a relief to everyone.

So it’s over to you, Strome.

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Winnipeg Jets

By Sam Fels 1297 0

We bring our team previews to a close, where we most definitely didn’t skip anyone, with the team that has every chance to be the best comedy act in the league this year. A lettered captain has already fucked off for the all-you-can-eat-and-drink menu at Caesar’s. They hated their coach last year, and yet he’s still coaching. The defense has been ripped apart to the point where they really need Carl Dahlstrom. Patrik Laine bitched to everyone he wants to play on the top line, where there doesn’t appear to be any room, which will make his linemates on the second line feel very welcoming. There’s still a wealth of talent in Winnipeg, and on that alone they could cozy up to 100 points. Or they could deteriorate right out of the playoffs.

2018-2019

47-30-5  99 points (2nd in Central, out in 1st round)

3.29 GF/G (7th)  2.96 GA/G (15th)

48.9 CF% (19th)  47.7 xGF% (23rd)

24.6 PP% (4th)  79.2 PK% (22nd)

Goalies: Same as last year, as Connor Hellebuyck will be backed up by Laurent Brossoit. Hellebuyck didn’t hit the heights of the previous year, at a solid .913 overall. The problem for the Jets is they weren’t very good defensively, and they figure to be a measure worse this year. So .913 very well might not be near enough to not give up three goals per game or worse. More worrying, is that Hellebuyck lagged behind his expected save-percentage last year at evens, which simply can’t happen this year. Is he the .924 guy of ’17-’18 or is he more to the career .915? It’s probably the latter, but will that include enough miracles to keep their excellent finishing close enough to win games? Real question.

Brossoit was excellent as a backup last year, and if he puts up another .920 and Hellebuyck struggles a bit, Paul Maurice is going to have another headache he doesn’t know how to handle.

Defense: Goodness. This is a unit. Byfuglien has fucked off, and likely isn’t coming back. Jacob Trouba finally got his wish, which was an escape from Winnipeg. Tyler Myers shuffled off to Vancouver, though that’s not a bad thing. So the only remaining player from last year’s top four is Josh Morrissey, and we don’t know if he’s actually good or looked good next to Trouba. Dmitry Koulikov is still here, whatever that does for you. Promising kid Sami Niku has to start in the minors due to conditioning. Nathan Beaulieu, Anthony Bitteto, Dahlstrom, and Tucker Poolman are the very definition of “guys.” Maybe they think Neal Pionk is going to be more than the Rangers did, but this is a goddamn mess. And this was a team that didn’t have impressive metrics when it came to attempts and chances against last season. What’s it going to look like this one? Especially if they try and play as up-tempo as they have, which they kind of need to to get the most out of their forwards.

Forwards: With Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor back in the fold, there is still the ton of finish along with mainstays Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers. There are the nifty two-way guys in Andrew Copp, Mathieu Perreault, Jack Roslovic, and Adam Lowry. It’s not the happiest bunch thanks to the windsock moods of Laine and how everyone feels about the coach. And they’re going to have to continue to outscore opponents and their own defense, because it could be a real challenge. There are going to be nights when they put up five and six. There are also going to be nights when they hit a couple posts or aren’t quite as dynamic and their defense gives up five or six. If the power play isn’t clicking above 20%, they’re going to have real issues.

Prediction: Tire fire. This team absolutely quit on its coach in the playoffs last year and not kicking Maurice to the curb, who’s never known what he’s doing, was a huge mistake. They’ll probably sacrifice the first four to six weeks waiting for Chevyldayoff to clear the gas leak in his office and can Maurice’s ass. From there it’s about the hire and whether the players are too far gone or respond. If they stick with Maurice too long, this will definitely go into the tank and they’re only eight points or so away from slipping out of the playoffs altogether. There’s so much that can go wrong here. If Hellebuyck is only solid, that might not be enough. If no one on the defense claims a higher spot, they’ll get run over. If Josh Morrissey isn’t up to being the guy, they could get run over. If the forwards think they’ve missed their window and give up the fight, which they did once, they won’t score enough to outlast their other problems. And it won’t take much for that asylum up in Manitoba to completely turn on them and turn into a complete zoo.

It’s on a knife’s edge up there, and the smart money is it falls off.

Everything Else

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews…

By Sam Fels 1406 0

I’m not even gonna give it a name. You know what we’re doing here.

2018-2019

FUCK YOU

Goalies: So the question isn’t whether you believe in love after love…well, I mean it kind of is. If you believe “love” is Jordan Binnington being able to repeat what he did over the final 32 games last year. And really, his regular season was a huge January and February, as he was rather ordinary in March and April, By then it of course didn’t matter. And he was good enough in the playoffs without being spectacular, as a .914 is not spectacular. In his first full season in the NHL, you can probably expect something like Matt Murray has gone through, which is very up and down and overall probably just ok.

If it’s anything worse, somehow Jay Gallon is still here. Perhaps this is what he was always meant for, with no pressure as a backup. He can probably fill this role well. It would be hilarious and a market correction if both Binnington and Allen both stained the sheets (in the bad way), but most likely the Blues are looking at no worse than solid if not song-worthy goaltending. FUCK YOU.

Defense: What really fucking sucks is that Justin Faulk, whom the Hawks should have been after for two goddamn years, is a major upgrade on Joel Edmundson, who was a rock-headed fuckstick that was over-worshipped by the inhabitants of the IQ desert down there. Now that they’ve let Alex Pietrangelo off the hook, the Blues have yet another puck mover, to go along with another season of growth from Vinnie Dunn Bag O’ Donuts Ovah Here! I’m still sure Colton Parayko is a disaster waiting to happen, except I’m still waiting. Jabe O’Meester and Robert Bortuzzo for sure are something that needed to be cleared with vinegar and baking soda, but it was enough once. If O’Meester is a healthy scratch a fair portion of the time, they’ll sadly be fine. FUCK YOU.

Forwards: Boy it must really piss the Predators off that the Blues stole their act of having only one genuine top line forward (Tarasenko) and a bunch of tweeners after that and went somewhere the Predators never have and never will. Sure, Ryan O’Reilly did a fine impression of a genuine #1 center in the playoffs, and took home the Conn Smythe as a demonstration of that. But we know what he is. But with him, Brayden Schenn, Tyler Bozak, and if Robert Thomas sees any time in the middle, they basically have three or four guys who slot between 1-2 or 2-3, so it’s just about the same thing. This corps is actually short on fuckwits and dipshits, which you would think would be illegal in West East St. Louis. But it’s young, and it’s fast. Thomas gets another year, as does Sammy “TO BLAIS, WHICH WE ALL KNOW MEANS TO BLUFF, SO YOU WERE PLAYING CARDS…”. Fabbri Robby or Robbri Fabbi or whatever is back before something else goes snap. Jordan Kyrou is going to get a full look after a pretty impressive half-season in the AHL last year and a cameo at the top level. Other than maybe Zach Sanford, the Blues are going to boast speed on all four lines. What the fuck kind of world is it when the Blues are sporting a lineup chockfull of speed both at forward and the blue line and the Hawks make the same sound as your car stuck in the mud/snow? FUCK YOU.

Prediction: With Winnipeg looking an absolute train wreck-in-waiting, the Predators possibly slipping back or at least going stale, there is no reason the Blues don’t win the division. Maybe Colorado is ready to take that big of a leap, but we’re talking about a leap of 15-20 points, which is asking a lot. Especially out of a team that has an iffy blue line, as the Avalanche kind of do. Yeah, the Blues might not have a lot of top end scoring. But they might have a wealth of second-tier scoring to make up for it. They might not have any top-pairing d-men, depending on what your opinion of Pietrangelo is. But they might have four or five 1B or second pairing guys to make up for it. The only hope is the goaltending completely drops out, but under Craig Berube their metrics were so good they can mitigate the goaltending to a point if they have to.

FUCK YOU

Hockey

Wheel It Out Here, Carnac

By Sam Fels 1888 0

We used to do this every year, so we’ll get back to it. Your FFUD Hawks staff predicts what will happen in the upcoming season. 

Big One First – Predicted Points and standings for the Hawks

McClure: 92 Points, 2nd wild card in the west

Pullega: 88 points, 9th in Conference (just outside wild card)

Hess: 86 points, 9th or 10th in West

Rankin: 88 pts, 9th in conference

Feather: 102 points – 3rd in the Central

Fels: 88 points, 10th in West

How many games will each goalie play and how good will they be?

McClure: Crawford 46, .916   Lehner 35, 910

Pullega: Crow: 34. He’ll play very well (.920) but he’ll get hurt again. Robin: 44. He’ll play fine (.910) and probably get four years. Delia: Four because both bird boys will be hurt at the same time at some point. He’ll be meh (.900).

Hess:Crow: 20, will be good but not great (.912), and deal with minor injuries early. He gets traded at the deadline, sadly

Robin: 45. He’ll be slightly better than Crow (.918) and get’s extended
Delia plays 17 while Crow’s hurt  and then backs up after Crow is traded. Plays well enough (.906) for Hawks to keep him as the backup moving forward
Rankin: Crawford: 35, will be good but not great and will struggle with brown brain at one point

Lehner: 40, will be good but terrifying at times, .912
Delia: 7, backs up Lehner when Crow is out, mediocre
Feather: 47 and 35 but don’t make me say which will have more. I’m having nostalgic feelings to 2008-09 when Huet and Khabibulin were going every other start.
Fels: Crow 43 (.918), Lehner 30 (.910), Delia 9 (.908)
Will the power play be over 20% for the year?
McClure: Just under at 19.6%
Pullega: No. 17% tops. Gus is going to bask in his own farts from last year and crater any trade value he had.
Hess: I’m calling this a push, they’ll finish +/- 1% of 20%
Rankin: Just barely, 20.5
Feather: Yes (Hawk voice) Let’s say 23%
Fels: Nope, 18%
How many games will Boqvist play?
McClure: 26
Pullega: 9
Hess: 30
Rankin: 15ish
Feather: 33 – I’m foreseeing a late to mid-season call up when the Hawks can’t pretend he’s not their 1st or 2nd best defensemen anymore.
Fels: 37. Called up somewhere among the holidays when the Hawks realize they have no choice, but there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
 
How many games will Dach play?
McClure: 7
Pullega: 9
Hess: 9
Rankin: 9
Feather: in the NHL- Head too dingy
Fels: 70 – he sticks but has injury issues at times and there will also be some inexplicable healthy scratches in there
 
How many games will Versteeg play?
McClure: 15
Pullega: 15, 14 of them will matter
Hess: too many
Rankin: 12, and it will be ridiculous
Feather: Too many and not far enough away
Fels: I refuse to answer this and it’s my damn question
 
Strome’s point-total:
McClure: 69 (nice)
Pullega: 60
Hess: 27 goals, 81 points. Let’s fuckin go
Rankin: 60, solid but not astronomical
Feather: 23 goals and 56 assists
Fels: 21 goals, 55 points
 
Toews’s goal and point-total:
McClure: 31-40-71
Pullega: 28-47-75
Hess: 29 goals, 79 points
Rose: 30 and 75
Feather: 38 goals and 80 points
Fels: 30 goals, 62 points
 
Biggest surprise:
McClure: Calvin de Haan will actually prove to be a metrically solid defenseman
Pullega: Kubalik. 40 points, 25 goals (5 PP)
Hess: The Hawks trade Brandon Saad to Edmonton at the trade deadline
Rankin: Andrew Shaw is useless in the top 6 and takes absurd numbers of penalties. This will not come as a surprise to me but to his many fans, it will.
Feather: Alex Nylander – because reasons, buddy.
Fels: That Dach sticks as Hawks realize they only have about three seasons to work with.
 
Biggest disappointment:
McClure: Robin Lehner will not seize the position from Crawford, leaving the Hawks with two huge question marks in net at the end of the season
Pullega: I’d say Nylander, but that would imply expectations. Let’s go with Gus. 35 points.
Hess: That Pullega called Tampa “Ning.” Also that the Hawks have a lot of high scoring forwards and solid goaltending but still miss the playoffs because of the blue line being so bad
Rankin: Colliton’s adherence to a hybrid man-to-man system that doesn’t work with this lineup.
Feather: There are no disappointments in a 102 point campaign – only slight annoyances. I’ll go with Brent Seabrook and somehow still strong-arming his way on this roster when he may not be the 8th best d-men in the organ-I-zation.
Fels: Hawks trade Connor Murphy because everyone else is unwanted by every other team.
 
Western Champ:
McClure: Colorado
Pullega: Sharks
Hess: Colorado
Rankin: Colorado
Feather: HAWKS, my FRENT
Fels: San Jose (except I really think it’s going to be the team down I-55 but I can’t say it)
 
Eastern Champ:
McClure: Tampa
Pullega: Ning
Hess: Toronna
Rankin: Boston
Feather: Pittsburgh
Fels: Tampa
 
Cup champ:
McClure: Tampa
Pullega: Tampa
Hess: Toronto
Rankin: Boston
Feather: Pittsburgh
Fels: Tampa
Football

A Very Average Carr

By Brian Schmitz 1628 0

When the Bears face the Raiders this Sunday from Tootenham Hotspur Stadium in London, UK, Derek Carr will be under center for the Raiders. This can be considered a good thing for the Bears as Carr has struggled to recapture the success he had in his Pro Bowl seasons from 2015-2017. Now, much of the decline in productivity can be blamed on the organization he plays for as well as his supporting cast. Which are both a bag of dicks. But throwing for 19 TDs in 16 starts last season is indefensible and general really piss poor.

Through four games this year, Derek Carr has put up numbers that are very much consistent with his career stats:

2019:

  • 72.1 Completion %
  • 222 Passing Yards Per Game
  • 6 TDs
  • 3 INTs
  • 96.7 Passer Rating

Career (82 Games)

  • 63.2 Completion %
  • 234 Passing Yards Per Game
  • 128 TDs
  • 57 INTs
  • 89.2 Passer Rating

What really stands out is Carr’s 72.1% Completion Percentage this season, good for 9th best league-wide and higher than some rando’s named: Mahomes, Watson, Phillip Rivers and Ryan.

Last week against the Colts, Carr threw 31 passes. Unbelievably, only four of the 31 attempts went to the right side of the field:

I have never seen a throw chart even come close to looking like this; and to make this whole thing even more confusing, two of four right side attempts went for touchdowns. What in the fuck were Derek Carr and Jon Gruden doing last week?

Now let’s take this whole thing another odd step forward and show you that, last season, Carr was decidedly better on throws to the right side of the field:

Looking at this chart, Bears safeties should and will be cheating towards the middle of the field and right side all game as Carr is clearly garbage throwing to the left side on anything past 10 yards.

With Amari Cooper Gone, Who Can Catch The Rock?

Derek Carr and the Raiders offense relies heavily on the tight end position in the passing game. Darren Waller has been an absolute beast so far this season, and although he has yet to catch a TD pass, he leads the league in receptions, is 3rd in yards, and 2nd in passes caught for a 1st down. If Carr can get Waller matched up against a Bears linebacker from time to time, he may be able to have a big day in London.

Carr’s other option in the passing game is 5th year veteran Tyrell Williams, who has scored a touchdown in every game this season.  Williams is averaging almost 13 yards per catch with a long of 43 yards. If any of the Raiders pass catchers are going to break a long one, look for it to be Williams.

Don’t expect a lot of catches out of the Raiders backfield. Although Josh Jacobs gets a lion’s share of the carries, he has 3 receptions on the year. Jalen Richard has become more of the 3rd down pass catching threat, and has accumulated 6 catches so far, leading all Raiders running backs.

So What Does All This Mean?

Ultimately, the Bears defense and not Derek Carr is going to be the deciding factor as to whether Carr has a big game. I expect Darren Waller to be heavily involved on quick strike passing game as Jon Gruden will not allow Khalil Mack to become an even bigger story. Game tape from the last four weeks will clearly show that you cannot and will not beat the Bears if your QB is taking 5&7 step drops and trying to sit in the pocket and attack with long balls down the field.

Hockey

You Ain’t Shane, You Ain’t Mook – ’19-’20 NHL Team Previews: Nashville Predators

By Sam Fels 1371 0

Everyone’s favorite darling, basically because national media types love to get drunk there for free and it’s not cold. Generally that has shielded everyone’s eyes from this being a pretty repugnant organization run by a ghoul in David Poile, who just engaged in the long-running hockey and Southern tradition of when things go wrong blame the black guy. It’s also put the wool over most experts’ eyes that the Preds have taken two straight division championships and done just north of dick with them, or that Ryan Johansen blows, or Eli Tolvanen didn’t redefine the sport upon arrival, or Roman Josi is starting to age, or half a dozen other things. Is it finally going to, thankfully, crash down around their ears this year?

2018-2019

47-29-6  100 points  (1st in Central, out in 1st round)

2.88 GF/G (18th)  2.59 GA/G (4th)  +24 GD

52.1 CF% (7th)  51.1 xGF% (13th)

12.9 PP% (31st)  82.1 PK% (6th)

Goalies: Same crew. Pekka Rinne will take the starter’s role as he has done in Music City since before Marvel Studios existed. He was more than acceptable last year with a .918. But that was down from the previous season, and he is 37 now and one wonders if that’s a slide that’s just going to continue. No one outruns time forever. Encouragingly for the Preds, Rinne did get stronger as the season went along last year, with a .913 in February and a .927 in March after a very shaky winter period. Didn’t really save him in the playoffs though, where he put up his second consecutive .904 in seven games against the Stars. And that’s usually the story for Rinne when the games really matter, as other than that one run to the Final he’s been nothing more than ordinary in the spring. And he’s running out of chances.

There are probably some in the Preds braintrust that hoped Juuse Saros would take the job from Rinne last year. He wasn’t bad, but he didn’t outperform Rinne and if the Preds are going to move on from a club legend while he’s still playing the difference has to be clear. Saros is only 24 and has time on his side, and if he sticks around his career .920 one might think that could be enough to usurp the incumbent, should his age-induced slide continue. Either way, the Predators are solid here.

Defense: Well it must be pretty damn good if they thought they didn’t need PK Subban anymore, huh? Must be nice when you can jettison the d-man who had the best metrics on the team.

It’ll put more pressure on Roman Josi, whose influence hasn’t been as great the past two or three seasons but still puts up points. Matthias Ekholm should be his partner, as Ryan Ellis was completely exposed taking on top pairing assignments in the playoffs. He’s a great bum-slayer but don’t put him up against real players, or you’ll pay the penalty.

There’s also a lot of faith in Dante Fabbro, who was tossed into the deep end of the playoffs after being a point-per-game at BU the past two seasons. He could end up driving things on the second pairing, either alongside Ellis or forcing him down to the third pairing where he started in the first place. Then again, that’s probably not what you want out of a d-man you’re paying $6.2M until the Earth’s heat death. More brilliant work from Poile.

They’ll round it out with Matt Irwin, Yannick Weber, and Dan Hamhuis‘s slowly-turning-to-dust bones, and they’ve definitely got this. Again, solid, but if Josi isn’t around Norris-level discussion, it’s short a top-pairing guy.

Forwards: The headlines are Matt Duchene finally came “home,” if home is the place where you’ve made it clear you want to play for about five years because you’re a true Canadian shit-kicker. Duchene will certainly juice the second line, whether from the wing or in the middle.

The Preds as always will do it through a strength-in-numbers method. Their only proven top line talent is Filip Forsberg and he’s made of graham crackers. Viktor Arvidsson is probably a genuine top-liner as well or a tick below. Ryan Johansen is completely overmatched as a #1, at least when he’s not playing for a contract to blow on a lifetime supply of ding-dongs, but they’ll keep selling it. Mikael Granlund will get a full season in yellow before hitting free agency, which probably means a big season for him. Granlund’s and Duchene’s presence will shove Kyle Turris down the lineup where he will hope no one notices he’s not worth $6M a year either. Same goes for Colton Sissons, and Craig Smith, and Calle Jarnkrok, Marriage counselor Austin Watson is still here to fill out Nashville’s absolute bastard quota. It might not have the highest of ceilings but this crew probably has the highest floor.

Prediction: My comrade in arms Fifth Feather thinks this squad is headed for a collapse. I wish I could get there, though the chance that Peter Laviolette‘s style finally is too much for the players is non-zero. The chance for Pekka Rinne to look his age is also non-zero. But the chance of both Rinne and Saros being bad is pretty close to zero. The defense certainly lost most of its fun to New Jersey, but it’s still more than enough as long as they keep Ellis away from anything flammable. They’ll be more than that if Fabbro is the real deal. The forwards carry more than enough speed and dash to light up most teams.

There isn’t a guarantee in the West to expose Johansen or outgun them, but they can also lose to anyone as they did last year. They very easily could win the division again. They could very easily eat it early with the wrong matchup. If that happens again, there could be changes.

But they’ll still be assholes.

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Football

The Sons Of Wilber Marshall – Week 4 Roundtable

By Sam Fels 1290 0

Our collective is back to review what went down on Sunday and looking ahead to the trip to the Old Empire. 

Considering who was out, and though the Vikings make a habit of being a fraud, that’s a pretty impressive win, no?

Wes French (@WFrenchman): It’s a great win. It’s a win for Nagy and Pagano. It’s a win for the defense, again. It’s a win for the system to get enough points to win an ugly game. This can work, QB position be damned.

But hanging over this big win is a whole lot of uncertainty. How long will Trubisky be sidelined? If he’s out for the season is this Chade Daniel’s show or is there a move to be made? And what about Roquan Smith, late inactive but on the sidelines, and a very expensive wrecked car earlier in the morning on Sunday?
Tony Martin (@MrMartinBruh): There’s an art to winning ugly, and with a defense like this it’s gonna happen a lot. The Roquan stuff is a huge bummer, but hey on the plus side Nick Kwiatkoski flashed all game. The team looked great short handed, I’m just a little worried at how conservative the play calling gets later in the game. 
Brian Schmitz (@_BrianSchmitz) Very impressive. Especially from a piecemeal defensive unit and a backup quarterback. I loved the way Chase Daniel(s) stayed within himself and the offense and relied almost solely on quick read, quick hitters.
They only put up 16 points, so anyone erotically-asphyxiating themselves over Chase Daniel is…well I won’t finish that, but why did the offense look a touch smoother with Daniel in at QB? 

Wes: Accuracy. Daniel isn’t going to get anyone excited about, well, anything. But he can make NFL-caliber throws when given the time because he can read the field. The completion to backup WR Javon Wims down the right sideline in the 3rd quarter was completed because Daniel put it in a spot only Wims could make a play on it. You routinely see that ball sail on Mitch or end up in a 50-50 position. Daniel will run through his reads very quickly as well and put the ball on whoever he feels is the best option that play, or wait until that option develops. He does this by working mostly inside of 10-15 yards, though, so there isn’t much of a big play aspect at all with him under center.

The drawback with Daniel is that he’s essentially immobile. He will give you less than nothing in a broken play/scramble situation and he doesn’t have the arm to hit anything further than the Wims play. The Vikings are a good defense, but this thing could have been well over by the start of the 3rd Q after the Mack strip sack that set up another FG. You can go a long way in this league by capitalizing with touchdowns off turnovers. There were many points left on the field yesterday, but luckily the Bears didn’t need them.
Brian: It’s because Daniel know his athleticism can’t create something out of nothing, so he goes thru his progressions and gets rid of the ball. Nagy’s pass plays were almost solely within a 10 yard window, which of course aids in Daniel’s accuracy, which was very, very good.  
Are we expecting some sort of letdown against the Raiders in London, or the Bears to roll straight through into the bye?
Brian: I don’t expect a letdown because a.) they scored 16 points last week; its not like they came out and lit shit up and b.) I don’t think this defense is capable of a letdown; they truly want to be great and take each opportunity as a challenge. Khalil Mack will most certainly be ready against his old team and a coach he hates.

Wes: I think normally this type of game, being 10 time zones away and all, would scream let down. But I think there’s even more of a sense of urgency to get some things right on offense and roll into the bye with more positivity and get some guys healthy. Khalil Mack might be able to provide motivation for the entire team anyway. He’s already been quoted as saying this is a game he’s been waiting for since the trade. He’s going to make some lifetime fans at Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.

I think any letdowns this week come in the form of long term news on the injury front and whatever is going on with Roquan Smith.
Tony: This game screams “trap game” to me, but I’m wondering of Khalil Mack can singlehandedly reverse that. I don’t see the Bears scoring much, but the defense is untouchable. If they score two touchdowns, it should be a lock. That’s a big if, though.