Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs Drop Two Of Three To Reds: A Different Kind Of Horses**t

By Sam Fels 1226 0

Game 1 Box Score: Reds 6, Cubs 3

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 6, Reds 0

Game 3 Box Score: Reds 8, Cubs 6

The Cubs will have to reconcile losing another road series, not winning their sixth straight series, and their first losing month in over two years. I would sit here and lament they hits they didn’t get, the pitches they didn’t make, and the mistakes they made. Still, there’s little you can do when your best pitcher has to leave after an inning and is probably out six weeks now. Mike Montgomery has apparently lost all feelings in his limbs, and the Cubs were never going to recover. So they split the other two.

Still, Schwarber’s clank in the first is basically the difference today, but at least it’s just a physical mistake instead of the mental ones the Cubs have specialized in of late. Still, they had their shots in the 7th and 8th and couldn’t quite get over the line. And of course, there isn’t any fire the pen can’t pour kerosine on, especially when they’re convinced Kyle Ryan can do anything. Which he can’t, even if he fools you with a couple good outings.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-This one especially stings today because it felt avoidable. Eugenio Suarez was nowhere on Quintana curveballs yesterday, and Lester has beaten him with a couple to get to two strikes in the first today. So why was he going to a fastball on 3-2 that got turned into putty on its way to the river? That feels like a mistake that didn’t have to happen. Maybe Contreras and Lester thought he was sitting on the curve, but it’s been a couple days since he proved that mattered.

-At least Heyward is hitting?

-16 change-ups from Quintana yesterday, the most he’s thrown in a start all season. A little more drop, though not as much fade as earlier in the year. But he threw it, showed he had it, and he got six shutout innings. Sure, he had some luck as there was very solid contact early in the game, but these two things are still connected.

-I don’t know what’s happened to Monty. His sinker isn’t as effective and he’s getting labeled. The only pitch he doesn’t have an obscene slugging against is his curve, and he can’t base his approach on that. It may just be a lost cause this season.

-Stop trying to make Kyle Ryan happen.

-They actually did get a decent outing from Brach on Friday, and maybe, maybe if he can build on that he can be part of the pen that keeps leads down instead of protecting one. That’s been the Cubs problem, not blowing leads but keeping teams close for the offense to catch up.

-The designating CarGo would seem to be an endorsement of Almora, who had four hits on the weekend. Or Bote, but he only got one start. Perhaps it’s a precursor for something else. If Almora is going to make his last stand, it probably has to be now.

Onwards…

Everything Else

Well, The Construction Workers Will Stop Yelling At McDonough Now

By Sam Fels 2697 0

I know what you’re thinking, and you’re not exactly wrong. You’re just not totally right, either. At least there’s a good chance you’re not entirely right.

Yes, the Hawks pro scouting sucks. And this is why they keep going back to the well of, “Well, he was good here before!” And it’s never worked. Versteeg was terrible. Oduya was past it. Sharp was too. Campbell was barely ok in his one year return. Andrew Ladd did nothing. But don’t think the Hawks don’t like the idea of the name recognition in their still somewhat nascent and parochial fanbase.

So I can’t tell you with any sort of confidence that the Hawks have done the hockey background on their trade or Andrew Shaw this afternoon. If it got beyond, “He was good here before let’s try again!” it would be an upset. Did the Hawks give up nothing? Well, a 2nd rounder isn’t nothing, and it’s one of the second round picks they got back for Shaw in the first place. Adding a third the next year seem a little steep, but hardly a crime.

And Shaw isn’t past it as the others were. He put up 19 goals in just 63 games last season, and 47 points. He’s not slow, though he’s not as quick as he used to be. He’s still a decent forechecker, and those hands around the net haven’t gone anywhere.

But there are concerns. One Shaw hasn’t been able to stay in one piece since leaving. After being a symbol of durability during his stay here, Shaw has missed 14, 31, and 19 games the past three seasons. He’s a couple surgeries in, which isn’t going to help the mobility much.

Secondly, if the Hawks think this is going to solve their top-six hole, they’re mistaken. It’s not what Shaw is, it’s never what Shaw was. He’s a third-line player who gives you scoring from beneath. Playing him with Toews or Strome isn’t going to do much, because he’s not the puck-winner he used to be (though the metrics are still strong). Still, Shaw spent most of last season with Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin, so he can still play with skill. He won’t kill you up there, the disappointment is you could have done better.

His contract isn’t a total millstone, though it is somewhat curious that the Hawks got it right the first time with Shaw, in that he was a nice player to have but the exact type of player you cash in on when they become expensive and replace from within, and now the Hawks have gone out and got him again when he is expensive and older. Their bet with Ryan Hartman didn’t work, or they said it didn’t, and now there hasn’t been anyone else. If only John Hayden was the player every writer and broadcaster seems to think he is but isn’t. $3.9M for three years is what Shaw costs, which takes him to 30.

This is probably a sign that the Hawks don’t plan to do much tomorrow, as the prices have gotten too rich for their blood. Jay Zawaski (friend of the program) has said as much. That’s not total idiocy, as $8M for Anders Lee or slightly less for Joe Pavelski could be problematic. This is also a huge bet on Alex DeBrincat and especially Dylan Strome, who have been the center of the Hawks’ comments and thoughts all summer. Their extensions clearly have them terrified, and the Hawks are going to look pretty damn stupid if Strome backs up the same way that Schmaltz did in his free agent year that got him punted to the desert.

Again, in a purely hockey sense, the move works. What doesn’t work is that no one is going to believe they’ve done their due diligence on this, merely once against attempting to get the band back together. And even if this one works, and it easily could, it leaves you no faith that this front office has the slightest clue on how to get this team from Point A to Point B.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Reds: Time To Pivot

By Sam Fels 1145 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 44-37   Reds 36-42

GAMETIMES: Friday 6:10, Saturday 3:10, Sunday 12:10

TV: WGN Friday, ABC Saturday, NBCSN Sunday

SONS OF LARKIN: Blog Red Machine

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Cole Hamels vs. Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana vs. Luis Castillo

Jon Lester vs. Anthony DeSclafani

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

PROBABLE REDS LINEUP

Nick Senzel – CF

Joey Votto – 1B

Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Yasiel Puig – RF

Jose Iglesias – SS

Scooter Gennett – 2B

Phillip Irvin – LF

Curt Casali – C

 

The Cubs begin the second-half of the season in the bouncy-castle that is The Great American Ballpark. Get ready for Darth Eugenio for the weekend. There’s no avoiding it.

The Reds have been bipolar of late. They swept the Astros on the road (an admittedly short-staffed ‘Stros but still), and then took the first two from the Brewers in Milwaukee. But then they lost the last two, and then were clocked by the Angels at home for two games, scoring one run in each. All in all it’s been a pretty disappointing June for the Redlegs, as they’ve gone 9-12 after a 15-13 May. Their metrics still suggest they should be far above where they are, but it’s getting a bit late to keep claiming that. Still, a good showing against the Northside Nine this weekend would give June something of a hint of gloss.

In the month, the offense for the Reds has dried up. Those of you waiting on the Derek Dietrich bubble to burst can rejoice, as he managed a 66 wRC+ in June with a glittering .277 wOBA. Only Votto and Puig have pulled their weight the last three weeks, with part-time dash from Jesse Winker. The Reds are in fact last in runs in June, but that’s never stopped them from clubbing the Cubs over the head at that spaceport of a park.

The rotation is moving the wrong direction as well. Anthony DeSclafani has been great in the month, with a 2.40 FIP. Tanner Roark has been on the upside of his usual performance, but Sonny Gray can’t find the plate again and Luis Castillo has been so wayward he’s being picked up by air traffic control. The only thing keeping Castillo’s ERA from blowing up is he still strikes out a ton of batters and some Righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery of .208. Gray has not been so lucky, which is why his ERA is over 5.00. The Cubs will see them both, and patience is the order of the day when they do.

Like it’s been with the Reds all season, you should probably do the work against the starters because they do have a very good pen. David Hernandez, Michael Lorenzen and his jersey that’s holding on for dear life, Amir Garrett, and Jared Hughes have all been lights-out over the past couple weeks, so the Cubs recent habit of falling behind by multiple runs is not the way to go about this weekend at all. Given the state of the Reds offense right now, that isn’t a huge ask from the Cubs rotation. But again, dumb things tend to happen at this park, and we don’t mean the food.

It’s now the second half, and while the Cubs usually wait until after the break to really get going, there’s no reason to not to start now. Both the Reds and Pirates are moving backwards, and by the time they get to the Southside to close it out the Sox might not even be able to field a team. They sort of muddled through the first half. And maybe that’s what they are. Still, July’s schedule is S-A-W-F-T, and if they’re ever going to kick to another gear and open up some ground, it’s right now.

Enough of this shit. Time to make the chimi-fucking-changas.

Baseball

Halfway Spotlight – Cubs Don’t Seem To Get Their Own Message

By Sam Fels 1220 0

It can seem strange to complain at this halfway mark, because the Cubs do sit on top of what has turned out to be baseball’s most competitive division. It’s where you want to be. And the addition of Craig Kimbrel for just money means that the Cubs limited assets can be used for just one more arm in the pen or maybe a bat to play second or right or center. And maybe Ben Zobrist returns to even that out a little. There is greater potential for the Cubs to be much better in the second half than much worse, let’s say.

But there are some things lingering from the aftermath of last season I can’t quite get past. And I’m one of the few who doesn’t think last season was the utter disaster a lot of others do. It’s best not to overreact to two losses, or that you couldn’t match an utter historic run by the Brewers when you were playing for 45 straight days. The Cubs were one game short of playing .600 baseball last year, which in any other circumstance you would never even look at twice.

We’ve been over the front office’s claims of “production over promise,” and they get a half-excuse because of ownership tying one hand behind their backs financially. Still, Almora and Russell haven’t ever really proven to be every day major leaguers, and that continues. Russell in all senses, of course. Carlos Gonzalez is dead, and Daniel Descalso is rotting. But let’s leave that aside for a moment.

The other major theme of the offseason was that the players themselves had told the front office that things had become too loose. They wanted more batting practice, they wanted Maddon to be a little more hands-on, and they felt that the team wasn’t always tuned in or being tuned in. They wanted more accountability. And fair enough. Less focus on the petting zoos and magicians, and more on improving. All makes sense.

Which makes me curious why the Cubs still play so many loose games. We saw it in this past Braves series. The Friday game against the Mets was loose. We can go back through the rest of the schedule, but you know they’re there. Mental errors, bad ABs at crucial times, abstract fielding at times (though the Cubs remain a very good defensive team), unconscionable decisions on the basepaths (and Captain Rizzo seems to be a main culprit there). Their approach at the plate overall wavering from very good in April to very bad at spots.

We’ve heard Maddon lament to the press that his players have gone away from the patient, all-fields plan of attack at the plate that had them lighting everyone up during that 22-7 stretch. You’ve seen Baez get in a pull-everything rut. Same with Heyward. Same with Rizzo. We can go on. I guess I would believe Maddon would say this to the press before his own players, but I highly doubt he would actually do that.

So if the players thought they were too loose or unfocused at times last season, and the front office together with them put in practices and ploys to address that, and they’re still playing loose games too often, where do we put the blame? You can’t put it on Maddon again when you made the changes from what you’d thought he’d let go last year. Is there a complacency amongst the core of this group? Or is it just that Kris Bryant has been off–possibly due to a concussion thanks to Jason Heyward‘s shoulder–and hasn’t matched the MVP level of May? Because that does make a huge difference.

Once again, the Cubs marks with men-on-base seems to be a major bugaboo. Overall, only the Giants have been worse in that spot as far as average in the NL. What’s quirky is that the Cubs are middle of the pack in on-base percentage with runners in scoring position, which means they take their walks in those spots. But the inclination is that those who do get on base regularly are doing so for those who simply can’t hit–your Russells, CarGos, Almoras, Descalsos.

Turns out that’s only partially true. Baez and Contreras have been very good with runners in scoring position. Schwarber and Bryant have been really bad. Rizzo has been better than average. At the end of the day, I wouldn’t expect that to continue with Bryant. It’s been a problem for Schwarber his whole career, something batting him first mitigates a touch. Again, much like last year, Bryant’s struggles are a bigger issue than people are putting focus on.

Beyond that, the rotation has been just about as iffy as ZIPS said it might be. There have been brilliant stretches from each pitcher–no really, there have–and there’s been a rut for each (some bigger than others). This might be what Cole Hamels is, given how good he was upon arrival last year. Lester is not going to be LESTER anymore, but he seems to be able to gut his way through. If Hendricks is healthy, there’s no reason you can’t expect brilliance. So the other two are the variables. Quintana needs to rediscover his change, or he might have to Rich Hill this and just throw his curve way more. But it’s not outlandish. Darvish just needs to simplify. The Cubs aren’t far from having the dominating rotation they flashed earlier. They also aren’t far from having a dysfunctional one.

The pen, as anyone who has watched baseball for more than 10 minutes, has evened out a bit because it’s a bullpen. The Cubs have Kimbrel, Kintzler, and Strop at the end, and all have proven track records even if age will keep them all from being automatic every outing. Cishek may be on empty, and we can never know with Edwards. Maples may have figured it out in Iowa, though we’ve heard that before. They probably need one more from the outside, but then again any of those three coming good and a move as a multi-inning weapon for Alzolay and you’re pretty much solved? Doesn’t seem like a huge ask, does it?

But to me, the Cubs have to lock in more. They can’t give away games simply by not being all there as they’ve done a little too often this season. They don’t have the Dodgers margins. And if they can’t, I know Maddon will pay the price. But you’ll have to convince me he was the one responsible after he was reined in last year.

Everything Else

Stan’s Off To Market – Free Agent Shopping List: F**k It, Let’s Offer Sheet Mitch Marner

By Sam Fels 2080 0

We’ll wrap up our free agent wishlist, and wait for the Hawks to sign players we never considered, with the biggest fish out there, unrestricted or restricted. And let’s cut the heart out of the Leafs while we’re at it. 

Mitch Marner

Height: 6-0 (not really)  Weight: 175 lb

Age: 22   Shoots: Right

2018-2019

82 games – 26 G – 68 A – 94 P – 22 PIM

52.0 CF% (+0.38 Relative)  52.8 x GF% (+1.63 Relative) 51.6 ZSR

Why The Hawks Should Sign Him

Because he’s really good. Because he might actually be a generational player. Because 22-year-olds who just racked up 94 points are generally nowhere near the market, and we can thank the Toronto media and fans for this bit of intrigue. Because he’s another torch-bearer when Toews and Kane can’t do it anymore. Because it’s a statement of intent. Because it makes it clear the last two seasons were simply unacceptable. Because it shows imagination and hutzpah. Because the Hawks might actually have to sell some tickets instead of papering their sellout streak anyway possible. Because it would certainly placate the veterans you still want to be a part of things. Because it would be exciting and suddenly your team might just be Showtime of the Central Division. I really don’t even have to sell this.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Sign Him

Well, that’s just as obvious, isn’t it? He ties up the cap something fierce. He doesn’t help the defense other than scoring more goals. There are questions about his appetite for getting involved in the middle of the ice when things matter most, though that’s probably drummed up by the Toronto media again to help drive his price down. He’s a touch small, but that shouldn’t be a concern at all. He doesn’t help the kill much, though he did kill penalties for the first time this season, and is someone whose speed and threat could be a real weapon on the kill. Point-men would be a little more careful with the puck knowing any slip is sending Marner the other way.

Verdict

Ok, let’s first figure out how it’s possible, because it is. Let’s just say right now it takes a seven-year, $77M offer. It might even be more, but let’s go with the $11M figure for now. The Hawks have just over that in space, so signing Marner to that leaves no room for Perlini and Kampf. Well, actually it does, because you can be 10% over until opening night.

So for the 185th time, get Anisimov off this roster. You just drafted his replacement anyway, and said replacement should probably be playing, and if Dach really isn’t up for it this season guess what? Marner can play center too. It’s not ideal, but you can do it. So there’s $2-4M in space depending on what you have to take back to get Arty’s beleaguered ass out of town. That probably gets you through this season, though your defense is still a goddamn mess. But we’ve pretty much already acquiesced to that being the case.

BUT WHAT ABOUT STROME AND TOP CAT HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY THEM?! That’s been the squeal from the front office itself for about six months now. First, pump the brakes on Strome for a hot minute. This time last year the Hawks were telling everyone that they had to reserve space to throw $6-7M a year at Nick Schmaltz. He’s on a trainer’s table in Glendale now. Strome gave you a good 50 games. So did Schmaltz. Let’s just say he’s got more to prove.

Still, you’ll obviously need more than $6M in space or so that moving Arty along will give you, plus the minuscule bump the cap will get. It’s the season after that when the new US TV deal will kick in and the cap will get a noticeable bump, so we’ve got some work to do.

Let’s attack another way. The Hawks currently have $23M open for next year. $11M to Marner brings that down to $12M, but a punting of Arty makes it somewhere between $14-$16. If everything goes well this year, DeBrincat and Strome eat that up, and you also haven’t re-signed Crawford yet. But, one or two of Murphy, de Haan, or Maatta probably have to go because they all do the same thing and by 2020 Adam Boqvist and Ian Mitchell had better be in the lineup or everyone’s fired. You’re probably selling Brandon Saad too unless he does something pretty goofy this season. After that the US TV deal kicks in and you have more room and fucking figure it out.

As for the draft picks? Who gives a shit? You’re not going to have a top three pick again, and you supposedly just got your #1 center of the future. You clearly think you have enough young d-men to make up for the fact that none of them are a true #1, but it may be that you don’t need that anymore. You can find players at #18 or #25 or wherever the Hawks plan on finishing, but you can find players anywhere too. Maybe you convince the Leafs to send one of the #1s back to you for Gustafsson or something. Or you get another #1 for him at the deadline when he’s goofing another 60 points off the power play but Jokiharju and Boqvist are ready to go and hey maybe Denver is done early and Mitchell is too. Whatever, how long do you want to be in the wilderness?

Basically, it doesn’t make any sense but it can be figured out. Fortune favors the brave. Let’s get nuts.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Split With Braves: In A Microcosm

By Sam Fels 1213 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 8, Braves 3

Game 2 Box Score: Braves 3, Cubs 2

Game 3 Box Score: Braves 5, Cubs 3

Game 4 Box Score: Cubs 9, Braves 7

So we’ll do a half-season reflection thing tomorrow before they kick it off with the Reds, but this homestand and this series is kind of just what the Cubs are in 10 games, or four games, or whatever. They can bash Lucas Giolito one night, but that only comes after looking decidedly Patches and Poor Violet against Ivan Nova. They’ll split with the Mets, and then split with the NL’s hottest team in the Braves. They’ll look loose as shit one game, and then show a fair amount of determination and heart the next to salvage it all. They waver from great offense to mystifying one, a great start to a few terrible ones and back. So hovering right above .500 seems about right.

Oh, and they might actually have a bullpen now?

To the bullets:

The Two Obs

-I was like most Cubs fans in about to get really upset when they were down 6-1. I wasn’t sure why they needed a six-man rotation and I wasn’t sure why they needed to give Chatwood a full week. And just like on Sunday, when I was about to really go over the edge on this team they come up with seven straight runs, take much better ABs, and get a win that will feel important down the road.

-Kintzler-Strop-Kimbrel. Has a ring to it.

-I’m gonna feel a little bad for Chatwood, because he just hasn’t been used enough. There are reasons for that obviously, because you can’t say he’s earned automatic use. Still, he started the month with that iffy insertion after a rain delay in St. Louis. He threw one inning a full week later, and then 2.2 innings three days later in Colorado. Nine days before his first start, and then a full week before this one. That’s 14 innings over 27 days. For someone who should be throwing multiple innings every time, unless it’s total disaster.

-Speaking of total disaster, I present Mike Montgomery. His sinker and fastball are getting crushed this year, which doesn’t really give him the platform to use his change. That’s how Tuesday’s game got away.

-Speaking of which, the Cubs were loose in that one and loose last night, and that keeps happening. I don’t want to pin it all on Willson Contreras, who nearly brought the Cubs back last night by himself, but he had three key mistakes that either led to critical runs or cost the Cubs a big chance at one of their own.

I feel like some of Contreras’s devotion to making things happen is that his greatest skill on defense has been taken away from him. Teams know about the arm now, so there’s few chances of backpicks and caught stealings. When he does get a chance to throw to the bases, he seems overjoyed by the fact and it feels like he’s missing the target way more than he used to. He’s already got 10 errors, when he had 11 all last year. It puts more focus on his framing and blocking, which are both still below average. Last night’s first run was all on him and had Yu immediately on the defensive.

-Oh, Yu. I wish I could explain it away as easily as Chatwood, but he’s still pitching as if he’s terrified of contact or only strikeouts will do. You can’t go 3-2 on every hitter, you can’t throw every pitch in every AB. He’s also still searching. He threw cutters last night, which he didn’t all in the start before, but the start before that they were almost half of his offerings. The last two starts have seen him try his splitter again, even though he had basically abandoned it until that point. It’s a hard watch.

-Bryant, despite his homer last night, hasn’t shown much pop since crashing into the granite that is Jason Heyward. No way he was or is concussed, I’m sure.

-I can’t stress this enough. Until a move is made, or Zobrist comes back, it’s time to just give David Bote a run in the lineup and only have one spot that Russell or Almora or CarGo can fuck up.

Onwards…

Baseball

Your Yonder Nightmare Is Over

By Sam Fels 1305 0

With the return of Jon Jay, I suppose the White Sox could only have one member of the Manny Machado O’Hare Welcome Team on the roster at once now that that plan didn’t work. So they DFA’d Yonder Alonso today, who has been worth -1.1 fWAR. Funny story on that, it makes him the worst player in the majors. Just a tick below Starlin Castro, which is good for a chuckle.

It doesn’t completely end one of the stranger chapters in Sox history, though pretty close. Alonso was acquired, along with Jay signed, in the hopes that their close relationship to Machado would lure him here. The Sox then proceeded to lowball Machado, thinking companionship would make up for the rest? It was very Reinsdorf-ian, and ended up even more delicious for anarchy lovers when it was whispered that both Jay and Alonso sold Machado on how lovely it is to play in San Diego instead.

At the bottom line, the Alonso acquisition didn’t cost the Sox anything. Alex Call is hitting .229 at AA at almost 25, so that’s a nothing. Alonso didn’t block anyone until Zack Collins was ready, and now that Collins is around off he goes. Sure, he was supposed to get Jose Abreu off his feet a little more often, but it sure doesn’t look like Abreu minds all that much so far. Maybe he’ll tire in August and September, but August and September aren’t going to matter to the Sox, especially if they keep averaging a blown limb per game on someone.

Alonso was the posterchild for the launch-angle revolution, deciding he was only going to hit fly balls upon arriving in Oakland and blasting 22 homers in 100 games there before a trade to Seattle. After a year in Cleveland, they loved him so much they decided to bring Carlos Santana back, and the bat-speed at 32 no longer can deal with the velocity in the game. It’s the same story for a lot of players at that age. Alonso’s flies have dropped and the grounders have come with it, and well, when that happens this is what you get.

It opens up DH ABs for Collins when Castillo returns, assuming he doesn’t have a trade or DFA in his future as well when returning to health. It’ll also be the kind of thing you’ll barely remember happened, except for the Machado thing. Now if they could just keep everyone else on the field.

Everything Else

Maybe We Should Prepare To Be Bored

By Sam Fels 1824 0

It’s only one report. And you can hear things differently. But The Athletic’s Scott Powers had some thoughts yesterday, and boy do they set you out to kind of ignore next season. Let’s go through them.

1. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported Tuesday the Blackhawks’ offseason objective now that they’ve signed two defensemen is to find a forward or two who could help on faceoffs and the penalty kill.

No question that the Hawks penalty kill sucked, but it sucked because they didn’t have a single d-man who could play on it. Seabrook was too slow to react to anything, Keith didn’t care, Dahlstrom was overwhelmed, Slater Koekkoek has a terminal case of being Slater Koekkoek, and I don’t have to talk about Gustav Forsling anymore so I’m not going to. When Connor Murphy wasn’t out there, and he had way too much to do, it was a problem.

So fine, if you want some quick forwards to apply more pressure, that’s not a bad thing. But it can’t be all that they do. And you could probably fashion a PK out of Toews, Saad, Caggiula, Kampf, Kubalik, and Perlini (whose speed could be a real weapon on the kill if he could be taught where to be).

The whole faceoff thing…aren’t we past this? Kampf had a rough year at the dot last year but was 53% in his rookie year so we know he can do it. The Flyers, Ducks, and Red Wings were in the top ten in faceoffs last year as a team. The Caps, Islanders, Canes, and Avs were in the bottom-10. Faceoffs as a whole aren’t as important as teams still think. Individual draws are, and you’ve got enough for that. It’s not worth tossing $3M at Bellemare to win the occasional draw. Jesus Christ.

2. Powers goes on to project what the team will look like:

Saad-Toews-Sikura

Top Cat-Strome-Kane

Kubalik-Anisimov-Perlini

Caggiula-Kampf-Some Signing

That’s the same forward group that got nowhere near the playoffs last season. Why are we supposed to get excited? Where is this going?

Keith-Gustafsson

de Haan-Seabrook

Maatta-Murphy

That blue line sucks hard. Like golfball through a garden hose hard. It’s also ridiculously slow. Is it better than last year? Sure. but what kind of bar is that?

What’s really worrying is that the rumbling from more than just Powers and Stan’s actual quotes on the Score on Tuesday is that Henri Jokiharju is going to struggle to make the team out of camp. Which is a big fucking problem, because if he can’t crack this he sucks. Yeah, he only had a half season at Rockford, but if he’s all they want you to believe he is than that should be enough. Also, there’s no allowance for Boqvist blowing everyone away in camp, but I guess that’s some miracle now even though Joel Qunneville, a far more experienced coach than the mannequin currently in the position, was making noise that he wanted to keep Boqvist around last year.

Oh, and here’s the kicker:

Jokiharju is probably a better fit than a few of the defensemen listed there, but best fit likely won’t decide which defensemen are in the lineup. Contracts and experience will probably be factored in too, and that could mean Jokiharju is on the outside looking in next season.

THIS IS THE GODDAMN FUCKING HORSESHITING PROBLEM!

Contracts and experience don’t matter when it comes to figure out your lineup (I’m going to turn into Brad Pitt here, “HIS DEFENSE DOES NOT MATTER!”) This is simply the Hawks justifying keeping Seabrook in the lineup. You’re already spending that money and his experience isn’t going to help him not skate and move like he just shit out a badger in his hockey pants so quit doubling your mistake. HIS CONTRACT DOES NOT MATTER.

Anyway, the only other nugget is that the Hawks are terrified of Strome’s and Top Cat’s next contract tying their hands again. An easy solution would be to punt Artem Anisimov into any box marked, “To Timbuktu,” and open up more space. That also opens a spot for Dach to make the team.

And that’s the main problem for me now. Because even if I accept that the Hawks really do regard this as yet another rebuilding year–and please release any video or audio of them selling that to Keith, Seabrook, Toews, and Kane–then that team listed above is your base. And I’m supposed to believe that the additions of Dach and Boqvist and maybe Mitchell make it a Cup contender? Sell that one to me. It’s a playoff team. It’s a decent team. Maybe it makes some noise behind a hot Crawford. But a really good team? I don’t see it.

But it’s a process, not a plan.

Everything Else

Oh Bob

By Sam Fels 2178 0

I suppose, and hope, one day that Roberto Luongo will become something of a case-study, if not a union martyr, of a player who becomes demonized simply because he accepted a contract that was offered to him. How evil.

Luongo retired today, and there will be some in Vancouver angry at him for not doing the LTIR limbo to save them from the cap-recapture penalty. Which is just the dumbest rule in hockey, if not sports, but then the dumbest rule in sports probably should exist in hockey. It’s definitely something the players’ union should come after in the next CBA negotiations, but probably won’t after their satisfied that they’ll get to go play in an Olympics no one will watch from Beijing and everyone will forget happened like three weeks after. It is their ball of yarn.

And it would be easy to just say, “Well the Canucks are at fault for offering him that,” (and fun, too) but they did it under a different CBA and all they were doing was locking down a team linchpin at the time. It’s a long time ago now, but Luongo signed that deal before the 2009-2010 season, when he was coming off a .920 season with the Canucks and was only 30 years old.

Luongo is lucky in some ways that that contract won’t be the only thing talked about as far as his legacy. He’s unlucky in that anything else that comes with it probably won’t shine all that bright.

It’s hard to discuss Luongo without discussing the playoff flameouts. There’s no way to coat the seven surrendered in Game 6 in ’09, or the 16 he gave up in the three games in Vancouver in ’10, or the .738 SV% in Boston in ’11. These are the facts of the case. But unlike anyone else on that team, Bob never really hid from it, and never tried to lower how much it hurt him that he didn’t come up big in the team’s biggest moments. And he could have used any of the Sedins no disappearing when it mattered, or the Canucks not having an actual top pairing d-man at any time. or Kesler’s body falling apart. You couldn’t find any of those guys when the questions came. Thing 1 or 2, or Kesler, or Bieksa, or Edler all were never heard from in a postgame dressing room. But Bob was always in front of a microphone.

It was that upfront, honest nature that eventually turned most’s opinion on him. A clear sense of humor on social media certainly didn’t hurt. It was bullshit that in the midst of the Vancouver meltdown, he had to tell the press his contract “sucked.” It didn’t suck. He earned that. And his departure from the city and team that no longer wanted him and where he didn’t enjoy playing was delayed merely because he’d played well enough to earn that deal before.

Perhaps there will be no bigger example of a player who was only viewed on his contract than Luongo. He’ll retire with the 10th best all-time SV%, which means he walks with giants. He’ll probably end up being a Hall of Famer, but in reality he should be in the Hall Of Very Good. Never won a Vezina, won only a Jennings, though did finish 2nd in the Hart Trophy once. He’s got a couple gold medals, one as a starter, so that’s something (though I would argue he wasn’t terribly great in 2010 but having a defense consisting of five eventual Norris winners certainly helps).

Perhaps now that contract won’t come into any discussion of Luongo’s career. Those playoff performances will, and that’s fair. Though I’d like to point out he’ll retire with a better playoff SV% than Pekka Rinne, yet nothing ever seems to be Rinne’s fault when it goes balls-up for the Preds. But ha, nothing ever bad happens in Nashville and everyone there is just so wonderful and perfect, don’t you know?

He certainly provided us with more than enough material. He was always an entertaining watch in whatever capacity. And that sort of honesty and personality should be something every player feels free to show but never does. The NHL will miss him, though I doubt it’ll realize it.

Everything Else

Offseason Trade Target: Mike Hoffman

By Sam Fels 1839 0

This one is a bit of a stretch, but we like stretching. Feels good, good for you, keeps you young. Seriously, go to a yoga class if you haven’t. Though preferably one with an instructor with good music taste. You don’t need more Enya-adjace stuff in your life. But you’d be surprised how many do. Anyway, I’m getting off track.

The Cats don’t need to trade Hoffman. They have $23M in space with the news today that Roberto Luongo is retiring. Not even LTIRing into oblivion, retiring. Which fucks over the Canucks a bit, which is highly entertaining if not gratifying, even if it’s because of perhaps the NHL’s dumbest rule–cap recapture penalties. So that means the Panthers have the space to sign both Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky, and perhaps have a touch of space leftover. It’s probably more likely they’d try and find a home for James Reimer and find a cheaper backup, but again, they don’t really have to do anything. They don’t have anyone they have to re-sign in the next two years, unless they’re higher on MacKenize Weegar than anyone else is and he’ll be stupid cheap anyway. Dadonov gets a raise next summer, but not a huge one at 31.

Still, last season the Panthers asked Hoffman for his 10-team no trade list, so they have thought about it. And with Panarin on the way probably knocking him down to the third line, and with only one year left on his deal, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to see Florida try and get something back for him.

And Hoffman is a perfect fit into the Hawks top-six, and is coming off a 36-goal season. He’s got that flexibility we love, as he can get you out of a stretch of games playing center if you need. He can play both sides, but has mainly been on the left. Now, that’s where the Hawks have a jam thanks to Saad and DeBrincat, but as we’ve seen Saad actually did his best work hiding on the third line in the weeds. Which could lead to a pretty effective Doomsday line of Hoffman-Toews-Kane if you so chose.

And Hoffman scores. Given an actual center in Barkov saw his numbers soar. In Ottawa he was either with overmatched players like J.G. Pageau or Derick Brassard or shoot-first guys like Matt Duchene. Meaning he had to create all of his own openings. Clearly he took to getting to finish off some others’ creations at times.

While Hoffman is only 6-0 he plays a bigger game than that which would satisfy the Hawks. What satisfies us is he can move too, and would seem to be the perfect blend of the two ideologies.

Financially, Hoffman is only signed for one more year, which means you can reset and see what you have when all is said and done. It also probably keeps his trade cost down a bit. Again, the Panthers have no need to trade him and might be all-in on this season to get back into the playoffs and trading Hoffman isn’t in line with that. Then again, it’s impossible to predict what our namesake Uncle Dale might do. He’s out-thought himself before.

Hoffman’s off-ice issues from last summer seem to have died down, and even if they haven’t that’s entertaining for us, which is all we’re after here.

What do the Panthers need? They probably don’t think much, but I’m no fan of their defense. They already have right-handed Gustafsson in Keith Yandle, except he can actually skate, so that’s probably a no-go. It would be truly cruel to send Connor Murphy back to Joel Quenneville, but perhaps without a point to prove to his GM this time around he might actually give our lovable Irishman a fair shake. If they’re into cost-cutting, one of your magic foursome on the blue line could do the job included with other things.

It’s worth a phone call, and it’s not like Tallon hasn’t dealt with the Hawks before. Even if he tells them to go fuck themselves first, which I’m sure he does.